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Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook Stephen R. Barnes, PhD

Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

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Page 1: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook

Stephen R. Barnes, PhD

Page 2: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

US Employment by Industry

Trade & Transportation17%

Government13%

Education & Health Services14%

Professional & Business Services14%

Leisure & Hospitality10%

Manufacturing7%

Financial Activities10%

Other Services6%

Construction5%

Natural Resources & Mining2%

Information2%

Page 3: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

LA Employment by Industry

Trade & Transportation18%

Government14%

Education & Health Services13%

Professional & Business Services12%

Leisure & Hospitality10%

Manufacturing6%

Financial Activities8%

Other Services6%

Construction7%

Natural Resources & Mining5%

Information1%

Page 4: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

US GDP by Industry

Trade & Transportation16%

Government13%

Education & Health Services8%

Professional & Business Services

12%

Leisure & Hospitality4% Manufacturing

12%

Financial Activities20%

Other Services2%

Construction4%

Natural Resources & Mining4%Information

5%

Page 5: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Louisiana GDP by Industry

Trade & Transportation16%

Government11%

Education & Health Services6%

Professional & Business Services8%

Leisure & Hospitality4% Manufacturing

23%

Financial Activities13%

Other Services2%

Construction5%

Natural Resources & Mining10%Information

2%

Page 6: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

108

113

118

123

128

133

138

143

148

153

158

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

LA Total US Total

MIL

LIO

NS

Page 7: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Core Energy Industries

• Oil & Gas Extraction

• Support Activities for Mining & Extraction

• Pipeline Transportation

• Utilities

Page 8: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

-

5

10

15

20

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

THO

USA

ND

S

Oil & Gas Extraction Total LA

Page 9: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

THO

USA

ND

S

Support Activities, Oil & Gas Total LA

Page 10: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

THO

USA

ND

S

Utilities Total LA

Page 11: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

1.2

1.7

2.2

2.7

3.2

3.7

4.2

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

THO

USA

ND

S

Pipeline Transportation Total LA

Page 12: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Core Energy Employment Outlook

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

THO

USA

ND

S

Utilities

Pipeline Transportation

Support Activities,Mining & Extraction

Mining, Oil & Gas

Total LA

Page 13: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Closely-Related & Support Industries

• Petroleum Manufacturing

• Chemical Manufacturing

• Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction

• Specialty Trade Contractors

• Water Transportation

• Rail Transportation

• Support Activities for Transportation

• Machinery Manufacturing

Page 14: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

1,500

1,800

2,100

2,400

2,700

3,000

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

THO

USA

ND

S

Heavy & Civil Engineering Construction Total LA

Page 15: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

1,300

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

THO

USA

ND

S

Specialty Trade Contractors Total LA

Page 16: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

THO

USA

ND

S

Water Transportation Total LA

Page 17: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Historical Employment & Projections

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

19

90

19

91

19

92

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

20

21

20

22

LA Total Core Energy Energy Support & Related Industries

Page 18: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

• Upstream growth has soaked up recent increases in workforce supply

• Downstream manufacturing expansions generating large increases in workforce demand

• Baby boomer retirements plus the oil and gas bust of 1980s leading to increase in replacement demand

Recent Workforce Trends in Energy

Page 19: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Top Core Energy Occupations

• Service Unit Operators, Oil, Gas, and Mining

•Roustabouts, Oil and Gas

•Riggers

•Rotary Drill Operators, Oil and Gas

•Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand

•Crane and Tower Operators

•Welders, Cutters, Solderers, and Brazers

•Maintenance and Repair Workers, General

• First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Extraction Workers

•Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers

•Petroleum Engineers

• Industrial Machinery Mechanics

•Derrick Operators, Oil and Gas

•General and Operations Managers

•Production Workers, All Other

•Petroleum Pump System Operators, Refinery Operators, and Gaugers

•Maintenance Workers, Machinery

•Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

•Electro-Mechanical Technicians

•Electricians

•First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers

•Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water Vessels

Page 20: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Competition for Workers

39.5%

22.8%

12.8%

6.2%2.2%Riggers

Mining

Transportation and Warehousing

Construction

Manufacturing

Other

Staffing RatiosMining & Extraction: 3.6%

Annual Replacement2.5%

Page 21: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Competition for Workers

51.7%

18.6%

15.6%

9.3%1.1%Crane & Tower Operators

Mining

Construction

Transportation and Warehousing

Manufacturing

Other

Staffing RatiosMining & Extraction: 2.8%

Annual Replacement3.5%

Page 22: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Competition for Workers

56.7%

12.0%

9.1%

5.8%

4.1%

3.3%

2.8%

1.9%1.3%

2.4%

ElectriciansConstruction

Manufacturing

Self-Employed

Mining

Utilities

Government

Educational Services

Other Services (except Public Administration)

Management of Companies and Enterprises

Other

Industry Staffing RatiosUtilities: 5.9%Mining & Extraction: 1.4%

Annual Replacement3.0%

Page 23: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Competition for Workers

39.8%

13.0%

7.8%

7.0%

6.9%

6.9%

3.3%

3.1%

1.0% 0.4%0.2%Heavy Tractor & Truck Drivers

Transportation and Warehousing

Wholesale Trade

Construction

Self-Employed

Administrative and Support and WasteManagement and Remediation ServicesManufacturing

Retail Trade

Mining

Government

Other Services (except Public Administration)

Utilities

Staffing RatiosMining & Extraction: 1.7%Utilities: 0.9%

Annual Replacement1.6%

Page 24: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Competition for Workers

33.7%

10.4%

9.0%

8.3%

1.7%0.4%

0.2%

0.1%Captains, Mates, and Pilots of Water VesselsTransportation and Warehousing

Self-Employed

Mining

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing

Manufacturing

Government

Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation

Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services

Industry Staffing RatiosMining & Extraction: 1.3%

Annual Replacement4.7%

Page 25: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Replacement Rates

• Several energy occupations key to multiple industries experiencing turnover rates above statewide average (2.49%)

•Derrick Operators, Oil & Gas: 4.4%

•Rotary Drill Operators: 4.1%

•Welders, Cutters, Solderers : 3.0%

•Petroleum Pump System Operators: 3.7%

•Captains, Mates of Water Vessels: 4.6%

• Freight, Stock, & Material Movers: 3.1%

•Gas Plant Operators: 3.2%

•Civil Engineers: 2.5%

•Mechanical Engineers: 3.5%

•Mining & Geological Engineers: 3.6%

•Health & Safety Engineers: 2.6%

•Operating Engineers: 3.3%

•Mobile Heavy Eqpt. Mechanics: 2.9%

•Power Line Installers & Repairers: 3.4%

•Power Distributors & Dispatchers: 3.9%

•Electricians: 3.0%

Page 26: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

2022 Outlook for Top Occupations

Occupation 2012 Base New Growth ReplacementTotal

Demand

Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, and Laborers 39,440 6,200 12,200 18,400

Heavy & Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers 27,860 3,900 4,500 8,400

Maintenance & Repair Workers, General 28,650 3,800 5,500 9,300

Welders, Cutters, Solderers, & Brazers 14,590 2,100 4,400 6,500

First-line Supervisors of Construction & Extraction Workers 12,050 1,900 1,300 3,200

Electricians 10,830 1,500 3,200 4,700

First-line Supervisors of Production & Operating Workers 10,420 1,100 1,500 2,600

Captains, Mates, & Pilots of Water Vessels 9,270 1,700 4,300 6,000

Industrial Machinery Mechanics 6,890 2,200 2,000 4,200

Riggers 3,550 1,100 900 1,900

Service Unit Operators, Oil, Gas, & Mining 5,230 900 2,100 3,000

Crane & Tower Operators 4,640 800 1,600 2,400

Page 27: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

2022 Employment Outlook

• Strong employment growth driven by energy– US Forecast: 12.6%

– LA Forecast: 13.0%

– LA Core Energy Forecast: 13.9%

– LA Energy Support Forecast: 16.6%

• Replacement of existing workforce– US Annual Replacement Rate: 2.3%

– LA Annual Replacement Rate: 2.5%

– Energy Occupations Replacement Rate: 2.9%

Page 28: Louisiana Energy Workforce Outlook · US Employment by Industry Trade & Transportation 17% Government 13% ... •Machinery Manufacturing. Historical Employment & Projections 1,500

Stephen R. Barnes

Director, LSU Division of Economic Development

225-578-3783

[email protected]