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be%er logis,cs for ci,es. be%er ci,es for logis,cs.
logis&cs in the city of the near future crossroads 2015
Edgar E. Blanco • [email protected]
Principal Research Associate, MIT Center for Transporta,on & Logis,cs Founder & Director, MIT Megacity Logis,cs Lab
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
Flashback: Crossroads 2012 Prof. Lei Zhao, receiving an online purchase delivery at Tsinghua University during an MIT MegacityLab event in Beijing…
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E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 3
November 2014 Amazon coverage of same day delivery …
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
March 2015 Edgar noEces that local Bed, Bath & Beyond is also offering same day home delivery … It has been available since 2010 in NYC…
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E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
is this the (near) future?
why can I only get UberCHOWDER in ci&es?
what else lies ahead for city logis&cs?
6
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
Search Buy Delivery Discovery Return / Post-‐Buy
the tradi&onal retail buying process
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E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
Search Buy Delivery Discovery Return / Post-‐Buy
the pure e-‐Commerce buying process
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E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
Search Buy Delivery Discovery Return / Post-‐Buy
the mul&-‐channel retailer buying process
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E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
… and on Jan 7, 2007 …
10
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
Search Buy Delivery Discovery Return / Post-‐Buy
… today’s buying process
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the iPhone and its ecosystem: • accelerated cellphone adop,on • affordable mobile internet access • HTML5 user-‐friendly “mobile websites” • millions of “trained” customers • high-‐end sensors “one touch away”
– GPS, gyroscope, camera, light sensor, WIFI, Bluetooth • birth of “big data”
+ 3 widely known and successful business models: • Amazon.com : launches 1995→$75B sales 14 years later • Facebook : launches 2004 →1.3 Billion users 10 years later • Uber : launches 2009→ in 53 countries, 200 ci,es 5 years later
a disrupted buying process
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 12
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
Source: The Digital Future A Game Plan For Consumer Packaged Goods. Aug 2014. GMA, BCG, Google, IRI
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E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 14
• Discover anywhere, search anywhere, buy anywhere, request delivery anywhere, return anywhere… as long as you are in a city
• Before: – Stores or (e-‐Commerce + Parcel) provided “economies of scale” to offer same buying experience to ci,es and rural areas
• Now: – “Buy/Deliver Anywhere” is convenient and affordable in high density areas …
the new buying process → omnichannel retailing
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 15
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
Source: Sustainable Streets Index 2011, NYC DOT
65% of NYC residents commute primarily by walking and public transport
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E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
10.9 mph average day,me speed in NYC
Where can a taxi take you in 7 mins.?
~ 1.27 mile radius or 6 km2
Manha^an populaEon density =
25,000 / km2
150,000 people within 7 min.
Source: Sustainable Streets Index 2011, NYC DOT and author
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E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 18
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 19
44,000$
32,300$
25,700$
22,800$
19,800$
16,700$
16,600$
14,400$
13,800$
12,400$
12,400$
11,600$
11,300$
11,300$
11,200$
10,500$
10,100$
9,900$
9,800$
9,800$
0$
5,000$
10,000$
15,000$
20,000$
25,000$
30,000$
35,000$
40,000$
45,000$
50,000$
Dhaka$$
Mumbai$MAH$
Hong$Kong$$
Karachi$$
Ahmedabad,$GUJ$
(Dem.$Rep.)$Kinshasa$
Bogotá$$
Manila$$
Lagos$$
Kolkota,$WB$
Bandung$$
Delhi,$DLOHROUP$
Lima$$
Lahore$$
Pune,$MAH$
Singapore$$
Korea$SeoulOIncheon$
Tehran$$
Mexico$City$$
Istanbul$$
Popula'on)Density)0)people)per)sq.km.)
Source: MIT Megacity Logis3cs Lab. Demographia.
Flashback: Crossroads 2012 Density of ciEes around the world is much higher than NYC ~ 10,000 / km2
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 20
Flashback: Crossroads 2012 Automated Package StaEons offer an alternaEve for “convenient” BOPIS for online retailers in dense areas or commuter hubs…. like USPS in 1863…
Omen uneconomical to have own city delivery fleet • Fragmented & uncertain orders • Short lead-‐,mes • Varying seasonal and daily peaks
Uber, Instacart, Lym, Postmates, Deliv are paving the way …
Crowdsourcing city logis&cs opera&ons
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 21
"Uber's legal issues 2015-‐02-‐06" by taxi-‐deutschland.net -‐ h^p://www.taxi-‐deutschland.net/images/presse/Infografik_Uber-‐legal-‐issues_EN_v12_RGB_2015-‐02-‐06_final.jpg. Licensed under CC BY-‐SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons -‐ h^p://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Uber
%27s_legal_issues_2015-‐02-‐06.jpg#/media/File:Uber%27s_legal_issues_2015-‐02-‐06.jpg
• 1907 a small messenger and delivery services company is founded in Sea%le, “American Messenger” – Delivered from retail chains and restaurants to homes – Telephone calls and notes – Convinced customers to “outsource” their delivery to them
• 1919 – 1930: The company grew and started operated in mul,ple states
• 1950s-‐1970s: The company fought to obtain authoriza,on to ship freely in all 48 con,guous states
• Finally in 1975 the company obtained Interstate Commerce Commission authoriza,on …
a final logis&cs flashback …
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 22
• 1907 a small messenger and delivery services company is founded in Sea%le: “American Messenger” – Delivered from retail chains and restaurants to homes – Telephone calls and notes – Convinced customers to “outsource” their delivery to them
• 1919 – 1930: The company grew and started operated in mul,ple states
• 1950s-‐1970s: The company fought to obtain authoriza,on to ship freely in all 48 con,guous states
• Finally in 1975 the company obtained Interstate Commerce Commission authoriza,on …
&me for a logis&cs flashback …
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 23
Source: UPS (2015). h^p://www.pressroom.ups.com/About+UPS/Company+History/1913
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on
is this the (near) future?
why can I only get UberCHOWDER in ci&es?
what else lies ahead for city logis&cs?
24
Yes but with more choices: BOPIS/click-‐collect, automated package sta,ons, home delivery, 1-‐hour delivery, “prime” membership, sensors,
alerts
Density drives viability of service and convenience for customers. Expect consolida,on and slow expansion to rural areas …
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 25
Source: Amazon (2014). Amazon Prime Air
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 26
h^p://cycletoronto.blogspot.com/2010/03/roads-‐should-‐be-‐used-‐for-‐transportaEon.html Urban India: Understanding the Maximum City. London School of Economics. 2014.
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 27
Opportunity for freight
Source: L. Marujo & E. Blanco (2015). MIT Megacity LogisEcs Lab.
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 28
using public transport infrastructure for
freight consolida,on
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 29
Tilting Mechanism
Folding Steering Mechanism
Li-Ion Battery Pack 36V 10Ah
Integrated 250W motor assist drive module
Foldable Canopy
Carbon Fiber Exterior
EU Bike Lane Regulations Weight Limitation: 60 KG Weight Speed Limitation: 20 KPH
Source: M. Lin (2015). MIT Media Lab. City Science Group.
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 30
Source: M. Lin (2015). MIT Media Lab. City Science Group.
Package Delivery Mode
People Mover Mode
Source: M. Lin (2015). MIT Media Lab. City Science Group.
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on 32
© 2015 MIT MegacityLab • Do not copy or quote without authoriza,on. Feb 2015. 33
Research Project
Future Urban Logis,cs Networks
Engaging diverse types of vehicles – public transport, bicycles, electric, autonomous, crowd-‐sourced – across a mulE-‐Eered network of faciliEes
Source: Winkenbach, M. • WHU + MIT Megacity Lab • 2014-‐2015
© 2015 MIT MegacityLab • Do not copy or quote without authoriza,on. Feb 2015. 34
The Lab MIT Campus
Dr. Edgar E Blanco, Founder & Director
Research Staff/Students Dr. Alexis H. Bateman
Yin Jin Lee Daniel Merchán
Ali S Kamil
Visi&ng Scholars & Researchers Prof. Adriana Gabor – QU, Qatar Prof. Lino Marujo – UFRJ, Brazil Prof. Eva Ponce – UPM, Spain
Andre Snoeck – TU/e, Netherlands Dr. Ma%hias Winkenbach – WHU, Germany
Global Team André Alho – IST, Portugal
Prof. Andrés Bronfman – UNAB, Chile Sergio Caballero – ITESM, Mexico
Dr. Christopher Mejía –LOGyCA, Colombia Prof. Kiy Setavoraphan – PIM, Thailand
Nathalia Zambuzi – USP, Brazil
Global Labs megacitylab::bogota – hosted by LOGyCA megacitylab::bangkok – hosted by PIM
megacitylab::beijing – hosted by Tsinghua megacitylab::madrid – hosted by UPM
megacitylab::mexico city – hosted by ITESM megacitylab::rio de janeiro –hosted by UFRJ megacitylab::san,ago – hosted by UNAB
megacitylab::sao paulo – hosted by CISLog USP
2014-‐2015 Sponsors MIT Center for Transporta,on & Logis,cs • MIT Global SCALE Network • MIT Interna,onal Science and Technology Ini,a,ves
New England University Transporta,on Center • ITAU Founda,on • ABI Inbev
Affiliated Partners CAU • City Science • SMART
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be%er logis,cs for ci,es. be%er ci,es for logis,cs.
thanks! Crossroads 2015
Edgar E. Blanco • [email protected]
[email protected] • Follow @megacitylab
E. Blanco • [email protected] • Do not copy or quote without author authoriza,on