Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for Aviation Forecasting Judy E. Ghirardelli

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for Aviation Forecasting

Judy E. GhirardelliNational Weather ServiceMeteorological Development Laboratory

Chicago Aviation WorkshopRomeoville, ILFebruary 25, 2011

OutlineLAMP backgroundExample of LAMP blendingCurrent status and productsVerificationGridded LAMPNew LAMP Convection ProductFuture work and plans

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) BackgroundLAMP is a system of objective analyses, simple models, regression equations, and related thresholds which together provide guidance for sensible weather forecasts LAMP acts as an update to GFS MOS guidance Guidance is both probabilistic and non-probabilistic LAMP provides guidance for aviation elements LAMP bridges the gap between the observations and the MOS forecast 2006-2008: Implemented LAMP at stations and gridded thunderstorm guidance 2010: Implemented experimental version of Gridded LAMP centrally at NCEP

Theoretical Concept of LAMPLAMP outperforms persistence for all projections and outperforms MOS in the 1-12 hour projections.The skill level of LAMP forecasts begin to converge to the MOS skill level after the 12 hour projection and become almost indistinguishable by the 20 hour projection.The decreased predictive value of the observations at the later projections causes the LAMP skill level to diminish and converge to the skill level of MOS forecasts.

LAMP Concept (2)

111

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555

666

777

888

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101010

111111

121212

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151515

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171717

181818

191919

202020

212121

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232323

242424

252525

LAMP

MOS

Persistence

Persistence

LAMP

MOS

Projection (hr)

Skill

LAMP Concept

111

222

333

444

555

666

777

888

999

101010

111111

121212

131313

141414

151515

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171717

181818

191919

202020

212121

222222

232323

242424

252525

LAMP

MOS

Persistence

Persistence

LAMP

MOS

Projection (hr)

Skill

Sheet1

ProjectionPersistenceLAMPMOS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

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18

19

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Sheet2

Sheet3

LAMP Guidance DetailsLAMP guidance is in the range of 1- 25 hours in 1 hour projections Runs 24 times a day (every hour) in NWS operations Types of Predictors: Station observations (METAR)Gridded observations (radar, lightning)MOS outputModel Output

LAMP provides station-oriented guidance for:all LAMP forecast elements~1600 stationsCONUS, Alaska, Hawaii, Puerto Rico

LAMP provides grid-oriented guidance for: Thunderstorms:Probability of thunderstorm occurrence/best category of an occurrence (yes/no) in a 2 hour period in a 20-km grid box Temperature DewpointCeiling HeightVisibility

Example of a GFS LAMP Text Bulletin KBUF BUFFALO GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 2/19/2008 1200 UTC UTC 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 TMP 21 22 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 21 21 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 16 15 16 DPT 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 9 WDR 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 WSP 20 18 19 18 19 18 19 19 20 19 18 17 15 13 12 12 11 10 09 09 09 08 08 08 08 WGS 27 26 26 25 26 26 26 27 27 26 25 24 21 NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG NG PPO 74 69 72 63 64 59 68 74 74 67 60 55 50 51 48 49 49 49 48 47 46 48 48 48 50 PCO Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y P06 40 35 36 27 TP2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 TC2 N N N N N N N N N N N N N N POZ 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 POS 99 99 99100100100100100100100100100100 99100100100100 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 TYP S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S S CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV CIG 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 CCG 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 CVS 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 OBV N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N N TemperatureDewpointWind DirectionWind SpeedWind GustProbability of Precipitation Occurrence on the hourYes/No Precipitation Occurrence on the hourProbability of 6-Hour Measurable PrecipitationProbability of SnowProbability of FreezingPrecipitation TypeTotal Sky CoverCeiling HeightConditional Ceiling HeightVisibilityConditional VisibilityObstruction to VisionProbability of Thunderstorms during 2-Hour periodYes/No Thunderstorm Occurrence during 2-Hour period

Example of blendingObs and MOS: 1-3 hr LAMP Thunderstorm forecast

13-15 hr LAMP Thunderstorm forecast

LAMP Current Status: Available Products

At NWS WFOs: Currently operational guidance viewable at WFOsExperimental Gridded LAMP grids can be brought into GFE via the LDM data feed Website products:Text bulletinsStation plotsMeteogramsProbability/Threshold imagesGridded Thunderstorm imagesExperimental Gridded LAMP images

Via FTP, in the National Digital Guidance Database:Station-based LAMP bulletins (ASCII)Station-based LAMP forecasts (BUFR)Gridded LAMP thunderstorm guidance (GRIB2)Experimental Gridded LAMP products (GRIB2)

Overview of Available Products

Available to NWS forecasters via AWIPSGuidance is viewed as text or graphically by forecastersGuidance is input into software for preparing TAFs

Website: LAMP Station PlotsElements Flight CategoryClick an element name on this slide to see its plot Ceiling Height Total Sky Cover Precipitation Type Obstruction to Vision Visibility Wind Speed Probability of Precipitation Wind Gust Temperature Dewpoint Wind Direction

Website: LAMP Station Meteograms Up to 12 displayable LAMP forecast elements Real-time verification of current and past cycles Verification of completed past cycles including the corresponding GFS MOS forecast

Features

Website: LAMP Thunderstorms Probabilities and Best Category (Y/N) All Projections

LAMP probability/threshold used to make Categorical Forecasts LAMP regression equations output: Continuous value forecasts (e.g., temperature, dewpoint, wind speed) or Probabilities of events (e.g., ceiling < 1000 feet, visibility < 1/2 mile, sky cover of broken). To make categorical forecasts, LAMP uses: Probabilities from the regression equations and Thresholds Thresholds are derived to either: Maximize the threat score within a certain bias range, or Achieve Unit Bias

LAMP Categorical Forecast Selection ProcessProbability (%)Does the probability equal or exceed the threshold?The probability of broken exceeds the threshold value for broken therefore LAMP categorical forecast is broken Category 5Category 2Category 3Category 4Category 1Does the probability equal or exceed the threshold?Does the probability equal or exceed the threshold?Does the probability equal or exceed the threshold?

Red=Yes Probability exceeds threshold by more than 10%Orange=Likely Probability exceeds threshold but NOT by more than 10%Yellow = Chance Probability is less than threshold but within 10%Cyan = No Probability is less than threshold by more than 10%LAMP Probabilities and Thresholds for Flight CategoriesUncertainty Plot Tab looking at vis 5 milesNote that this shows you one condition (e.g., vis 5 miles). To determine the most likely condition, you should consider rarer conditions first.

1522 stations, 0900 UTC LAMP, 0000 UTC GFS MOSverification period: Apr Sep 2007Verification27

BSIM

2521.3

11.98

6.73.2

5.51.9

4.71.1

4.11.2

3.81.4

4.11.4

Ceiling Cool

Visibility Cool

Projection (hrs)

Brier Score Improvement of LAMP over MOS (%)

IMPROV

45.67164179147.222222222253.030303030361.0619469027

24.367088607626.470588235321.582733812924.3093922652

14.144736842115.96958174913.725490196114.201183432

14.383561643817.39130434789.16030534356.875

13.07420494718.42105263167.94392523367.7419354839

13.454545454513.65.72916666677.4626865672

10.676156583613.73390557949.23913043489.6551724138

11.870503597112.28813559329.47368421058.6705202312

Ceiling Cool

Ceiling Warm

Visibility Cool

Visibility Warm

Projection (hrs)

Threat Score Improvement of LAMP over MOS (%)

IMPROV data

Ceiling Height < 1000 feet

COOL SEASON 2007-2008WARM SEASON 2007

ProjectionPersistenceGFS MOSLAMPLAMP Impr. Over MOSProjectionPersistenceGFS MOSLAMPLAMP Impr. Over MOS

30.4740.3350.48845.67164179130.4150.2880.42447.2222222222

60.3380.3160.39324.367088607660.2730.2720.34426.4705882353

90.2350.3040.34714.144736842190.1550.2630.30515.969581749

120.1680.2920.33414.3835616438120.1050.230.2717.3913043478

150.1470.2830.3213.074204947150.0980.2280.2718.4210526316

180.1420.2750.31213.4545454545180.1170.250.28413.6

210.1440.2810.31110.6761565836210.1380.2330.26513.7339055794

240.1380.2780.31111.8705035971240.1540.2360.26512.2881355932

Visibility < 3 miles



30.390.2640.40453.030303030330.3160.2260.36461.0619469027

60.2530.2780.33821.582733812960.1130.1810.22524.3093922652

90.1580.2550.2913.725490196190.0590.1690.19314.201183432

120.1210.2620.2869.1603053435120.0440.160.1716.875

150.0970.2140.2317.9439252336150.0470.1550.1677.7419354839

180.0990.1920.2035.7291666667180.0660.1340.1447.4626865672

210.1030.1840.2019.2391304348210.1030.1450.1599.6551724138

240.10.190.2089.4736842105240.1230.1730.1888.6705202312

CIG < 1000 FT CS

0.6510.651

0.5470.542

0.4880.4740.335

0.4490.419

0.420.379

0.3930.3380.316

0.3720.302

0.3590.265

0.3470.2350.304

0.340.207

0.3410.185

0.3340.1680.292

0.3280.159

0.3260.151

0.320.1470.283

0.320.144

0.3170.143

0.3120.1420.275

0.320.144

0.3170.144

0.3110.1440.281

0.3140.143

0.3150.14

0.3110.1380.278

0.3140.137

b)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

CIG < 1000 FT WS

0.5950.596

0.4870.486

0.4240.4150.288

0.3870.361

0.3560.314

0.3440.2730.272

0.3310.229

0.3160.188

0.3050.1550.263

0.3020.132

0.2880.117

0.270.1050.23

0.2710.1

0.270.098

0.270.0980.228

0.2790.102

0.2850.106

0.2840.1170.25

0.2810.123

0.2690.129

0.2650.1380.233

0.2640.145

0.2670.151

0.2650.1540.236

0.2680.154

a)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

Ceiling Data



ProjectionPersistenceGFS MOSLAMPProjectionPersistenceGFS MOSLAMP

10.7170.7210.6580.66

20.6310.64820.5680.583

30.5740.4960.60630.5130.4460.544

40.5340.58640.4730.523

50.50.5750.4330.511

60.470.4950.55860.3990.4510.498

70.4420.54970.3680.48

80.4140.5480.3370.452

90.3860.4830.5390.3020.3880.429

100.3590.52100.270.412

110.3350.509110.2440.402

120.3110.4490.495120.220.3640.394

130.2940.485130.2070.392

140.2790.474140.1970.387

150.2680.4290.464150.190.3490.382

160.2610.462160.1890.385

170.2570.458170.1910.385

180.2540.420.455180.1950.3540.385

190.2510.454190.2020.387

200.2510.454200.2080.386

210.2480.4240.452210.2190.3610.392

220.2470.458220.2280.402

230.2450.456230.2320.402

240.2440.4320.459240.2360.3830.406

250.2420.463250.2360.405




10.65100.65110.59600.595

20.54200.54720.48600.487

30.4740.3350.4880.456716417930.4150.2880.4240.4722222222

40.41900.44940.36100.387

50.37900.4250.31400.356

60.3380.3160.3930.243670886160.2730.2720.3440.2647058824

70.30200.37270.22900.331

80.26500.35980.18800.316

90.2350.3040.3470.141447368490.1550.2630.3050.1596958175

100.20700.34100.13200.302

110.18500.341110.11700.288

120.1680.2920.3340.1438356164120.1050.230.270.1739130435

130.15900.328130.100.271

140.15100.326140.09800.27

150.1470.2830.320.1307420495150.0980.2280.270.1842105263

160.14400.32160.10200.279

170.14300.317170.10600.285

180.1420.2750.3120.1345454545180.1170.250.2840.136

190.14400.32190.12300.281

200.14400.317200.12900.269

210.1440.2810.3110.1067615658210.1380.2330.2650.1373390558

220.14300.314220.14500.264

230.1400.315230.15100.267

240.1380.2780.3110.118705036240.1540.2360.2650.1228813559

250.13700.314250.15400.268




10.6150.61510.5580.557

20.4890.48820.4320.431

30.410.2360.41130.3560.1950.36

40.3520.36140.2970.31

50.3110.32450.240.277

60.2660.2030.28660.1890.1910.268

70.2260.26170.1490.263

80.1890.23980.1160.249

90.1550.1750.22290.0940.1860.235

100.1320.215100.0810.213

110.1160.216110.0720.199

120.1040.1570.213120.0660.130.186

130.0980.206130.0620.176

140.0950.208140.0620.186

150.0980.1640.208150.0630.1410.2

160.0990.207160.0710.199

170.0990.202170.0720.195

180.0990.1770.2180.0830.1660.209

190.1010.213190.0910.212

200.0990.213200.0970.202

210.10.1950.209210.1030.1620.193

220.0990.215220.1090.189

230.0980.216230.1140.188

240.0950.1880.217240.1140.1560.189

250.0930.219250.1140.193

VIS < 3 MI CS

0.5730.574

0.4620.461

0.4040.390.264

0.3740.341

0.3590.297

0.3380.2530.278

0.3120.213

0.2960.182

0.290.1580.255

0.2870.141

0.2820.129

0.2860.1210.262

0.2770.111

0.2550.106

0.2310.0970.214

0.220.095

0.2120.097

0.2030.0990.192

0.2020.101

0.2040.102

0.2010.1030.184

0.2040.102

0.2060.103

0.2080.10.19

0.2050.098

b)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

VIS < 3 MI WS

0.5070.509

0.430.394

0.3640.3160.226

0.2690.232

0.2280.156

0.2250.1130.181

0.2150.087

0.2120.075

0.1930.0590.169

0.180.052

0.1810.047

0.1710.0440.16

0.1730.043

0.1840.044

0.1670.0470.155

0.1560.049

0.1510.055

0.1440.0660.134

0.1470.078

0.1550.092

0.1590.1030.145

0.1730.114

0.1790.12

0.1880.1230.173

0.1990.125

a)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

Visibility Data




10.57400.57310.5090.507

20.46100.46220.3940.43

30.390.2640.4040.530303030330.3160.2260.3640.610619469

40.34100.37440.2320.269

50.29700.35950.1560.228

60.2530.2780.3380.215827338160.1130.1810.2250.2430939227

70.21300.31270.0870.215

80.18200.29680.0750.212

90.1580.2550.290.13725490290.0590.1690.1930.1420118343

100.14100.287100.05200.18

110.12900.282110.04700.181

120.1210.2620.2860.0916030534120.0440.160.1710.06875

130.11100.277130.04300.173

140.10600.255140.04400.184

150.0970.2140.2310.0794392523150.0470.1550.1670.0774193548

160.09500.22160.04900.156

170.09700.212170.05500.151

180.0990.1920.2030.0572916667180.0660.1340.1440.0746268657

190.10100.202190.07800.147

200.10200.204200.09200.155

210.1030.1840.2010.0923913043210.1030.1450.1590.0965517241

220.10200.204220.11400.173

230.10300.206230.1200.179

240.10.190.2080.0947368421240.1230.1730.1880.0867052023

250.09800.205250.12500.199

min0.201min0.144

Visibility < 1 mile



10.5170.51610.4610.464

20.4090.41520.3460.365

30.330.1730.34330.270.1440.28

40.2670.28940.1840.217

50.220.24250.120.195

60.1760.1380.21160.0910.1440.201

70.1420.1970.0710.196

80.1140.17380.060.188

90.0960.1540.17290.0460.1460.167

100.080.174100.0390.153

110.0720.177110.0330.144

120.0640.1630.179120.030.1150.126

130.0630.177130.030.128

140.0610.145140.0320.123

150.0580.1270.136150.0350.1430.14

160.0590.135160.0360.148

170.060.125170.0440.138

180.0630.1010.115180.0510.1170.127

190.0650.113190.0580.111

200.070.115200.0680.112

210.0740.1020.119210.0740.1120.116

220.0750.119220.0780.125

230.0740.123230.0820.131

240.0750.1180.13240.0810.1210.128

250.0750.135250.0820.141

Visibility < 1/2 mile



10.4820.46610.4060.408

20.3550.35820.3010.325

30.2790.1360.28930.2330.1230.249

40.2240.24840.1620.192

50.1860.20550.1070.187

60.1540.1060.17960.0820.1430.201

70.1260.17370.0650.195

80.1030.1680.0540.174

90.0860.1220.15590.0420.1590.166

100.0750.151100.0390.159

110.0630.145110.0340.152

120.0630.1210.144120.0310.140.15

130.0620.13130.0330.156

140.0570.132140.0330.151

150.0510.1180.129150.040.1350.179

160.0550.134160.0370.168

170.050.115170.0440.151

180.0530.0970.103180.050.1350.136

190.0590.102190.0510.117

200.0610.099200.0620.104

210.0660.0830.099210.0640.10.1

220.0670.1220.0680.107

230.0690.104230.0660.104

240.0660.0930.105240.0670.1010.109

250.0640.105250.070.12

0.144

0.201

IFR or worse WS

0.5870.589

0.5020.482

0.4410.4110.317

0.3870.351

0.3570.296

0.3460.250.284

0.3350.208

0.3190.17

0.3040.140.272

0.2930.12

0.280.108

0.270.0980.246

0.2660.093

0.2680.092

0.2670.0940.241

0.2660.096

0.2710.103

0.2660.1160.244

0.260.126

0.2570.135

0.2590.1460.241

0.2650.157

0.270.165

0.2730.1680.259

0.280.171

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

IFR Conditions or lower - Warm Season

IFR or worse CS

0.6590.658

0.5620.556

0.5070.4890.374

0.4740.437

0.4510.394

0.430.3520.367

0.4110.314

0.3960.276

0.3870.2450.348

0.3790.218

0.3770.197

0.3770.1810.342

0.3720.17

0.3660.161

0.3490.1540.323

0.3420.151

0.3380.151

0.3320.1520.305

0.3330.156

0.3330.157

0.330.1560.308

0.3330.156

0.330.154

0.330.1520.31

0.3290.15

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

IFR Conditions or lower - Cool Season

IFR Data

IFR or worse



10.65800.65910.58900.587

20.55600.56220.48200.502

30.4890.3740.5070.355614973330.4110.3170.4410.3911671924

40.43700.47440.35100.387

50.39400.45150.29600.357

60.3520.3670.430.171662125360.250.2840.3460.2183098592

70.31400.41170.20800.335

80.27600.39680.1700.319

90.2450.3480.3870.112068965590.140.2720.3040.1176470588

100.21800.379100.1200.293

110.19700.377110.10800.28

120.1810.3420.3770.1023391813120.0980.2460.270.0975609756

130.1700.372130.09300.266

140.16100.366140.09200.268

150.1540.3230.3490.080495356150.0940.2410.2670.1078838174

160.15100.342160.09600.266

170.15100.338170.10300.271

180.1520.3050.3320.0885245902180.1160.2440.2660.0901639344

190.15600.333190.12600.26

200.15700.333200.13500.257

210.1560.3080.330.0714285714210.1460.2410.2590.0746887967

220.15600.333220.15700.265

230.15400.33230.16500.27

240.1520.310.330.064516129240.1680.2590.2730.0540540541

250.1500.329250.17100.28

min0.3050.329min0.2410.257

0.257

0.241

0.329

0.305

Wind Direction CS

9.899.4311

13.64811.3622

17.01412.515.279

19.99813.0964

23.48113.4265

27.66413.7614.682

31.98514.3277

36.06314.848

39.60815.3816.015

42.96815.71610

46.14216.04811

49.4416.36716.777

52.26416.42913

55.49516.86714

57.21117.08217.475

58.45816.7716

59.74116.41317

61.55316.46616.869

63.00516.38619

65.1216.45320

66.55716.5416.905

68.33816.49322

69.8816.43423

71.4616.71517.16

72.99316.80125

b)

Persistence

LAMP

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

MAE (degrees)

Wind Direction WS

10.63311.04

12.61814.851

13.39417.4416.042

13.81720.568

14.25424.872

15.06329.11115.73

16.01432.681

16.92636.075

17.65139.0217.869

18.37142.232

19.21644.876

19.89946.84719.938

20.34848.524

20.49849.622

21.13851.00720.999

21.48951.618

21.20250.675

20.81448.98720.683

20.07348.586

19.72148.805

19.41649.319.254

19.04650.796

18.83252.062

19.18854.30919.195

18.83856.093

a)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

MAE (degrees)

Wind Speed CS

1.791.771

2.141.992

2.42.122.35

2.652.224

3.012.315

3.52.412.49

3.962.477

4.332.538

4.612.582.64

4.822.610

4.952.611

4.972.612.66

4.862.5713

4.652.5514

4.492.512.53

4.432.4816

4.442.517

4.452.522.52

4.472.519

4.52.4920

4.52.512.51

4.532.4822

4.532.4823

4.552.492.5

4.572.4825

b)

Persistence

LAMP

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

MAE (kts)

Wind Speed WS

1.611.611

1.91.782

2.161.912.06

2.612.054

3.162.155

3.612.252.29

3.992.337

4.312.48

4.612.482.49

4.862.5110

5.052.5511

5.162.592.6

5.132.5613

4.892.5214

4.462.482.49

4.052.416

3.792.3517

3.622.342.33

3.512.3119

3.422.2820

3.362.262.25

3.322.2222

3.292.1923

3.282.192.17

3.282.1625

a)

Persistence

LAMP

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

MAE (kts)

Wind Speed Data

Wind Speed (MAE)


ProjectionPersistenceLAMPGFS MOSLAMP Impr. Over MOSProjectionPersistenceLAMPGFS MOSLAMP Impr. Over MOS

11.791.77011.611.610

22.141.99021.91.780

32.42.122.350.097872340432.161.912.060.072815534

42.652.22042.612.050

53.012.31053.162.150

63.52.412.490.032128514163.612.252.290.0174672489

73.962.47073.992.330

84.332.53084.312.40

94.612.582.640.022727272794.612.482.490.0040160643

104.822.60104.862.510

114.952.60115.052.550

124.972.612.660.0187969925125.162.592.60.0038461538

134.862.570135.132.560

144.652.550144.892.520

154.492.512.530.0079051383154.462.482.490.0040160643

164.432.480164.052.40

174.442.50173.792.350

184.452.522.520183.622.342.33-0.0042918455

194.472.50193.512.310

204.52.490203.422.280

214.52.512.510213.362.262.25-0.0044444444

224.532.480223.322.220

234.532.480233.292.190

244.552.492.50.004243.282.192.17-0.0092165899

254.572.480253.282.160

Temperature CS

1.0911.12

1.4921.75

1.813.122.3

2.0542.84

2.2353.72

2.42.955.1

2.5876.87

2.7388.72

2.853.0510.35

2.951011.64

31112.48

33.0912.84

2.981312.57

2.921411.58

2.882.9710.22

2.85169.04

2.89178.27

2.983.027.85

3.07197.63

3.18207.56

3.293.337.56

3.35227.63

3.42237.74

3.473.517.88

3.52258.04

b)

LAMP

GFS MOS

Persistence

Projection (hours)

MAE

Temperature - Cool Season

Temperature WS

0.9911.08

1.2821.7

1.52.252.53

1.6944.04

1.8756.02

2.052.238.22

2.23710.5

2.37812.45

2.52.6514.02

2.61015.21

2.691115.97

2.782.8716.26

2.831316.02

2.841415.2

2.782.8213.63

2.631611.5

2.52179.44

2.482.537.83

2.48196.72

2.5205.95

2.542.65.4

2.54225.03

2.55234.83

2.582.654.78

2.58254.84

a)

LAMP

GFS MOS

Persistence

Projection (hours)

MAE

Temperature - Warm season

CIG < 3000 FT CS

0.71710.72

0.63120.648

0.5740.4960.606

0.53440.586

0.550.57

0.470.4950.558

0.44270.549

0.41480.54

0.3860.4830.53

0.359100.52

0.335110.509

0.3110.4490.495

0.294130.485

0.279140.474

0.2680.4290.464

0.261160.462

0.257170.458

0.2540.420.455

0.251190.454

0.251200.454

0.2480.4240.452

0.247220.458

0.245230.456

0.2440.4320.459

0.242250.463

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for ceiling height 3000 feet Cool season (October 2007 - March 2008); 1522 stations

CIG < 3000 FT WS

0.65810.66

0.56820.583

0.5130.4460.544

0.47340.523

0.43350.511

0.3990.4510.498

0.36870.48

0.33780.452

0.3020.3880.429

0.27100.412

0.244110.402

0.220.3640.394

0.207130.392

0.197140.387

0.190.3490.382

0.189160.385

0.191170.385

0.1950.3540.385

0.202190.387

0.208200.386

0.2190.3610.392

0.228220.402

0.232230.402

0.2360.3830.406

0.236250.405

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for ceiling height 3000 feet Warm season (April 2007 - September 2007); 1522 stations

CIG < 500 FT CS

0.61510.615

0.48920.488

0.410.2360.411

0.35240.361

0.31150.324

0.2660.2030.286

0.22670.261

0.18980.239

0.1550.1750.222

0.132100.215

0.116110.216

0.1040.1570.213

0.098130.206

0.095140.208

0.0980.1640.208

0.099160.207

0.099170.202

0.0990.1770.2

0.101190.213

0.099200.213

0.10.1950.209

0.099220.215

0.098230.216

0.0950.1880.217

0.093250.219

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for ceiling height < 500 feetCool season (October 2007 - March 2008); 1522 stations

CIG < 500 FT WS

0.55810.557

0.43220.431

0.3560.1950.36

0.29740.31

0.2450.277

0.1890.1910.268

0.14970.263

0.11680.249

0.0940.1860.235

0.081100.213

0.072110.199

0.0660.130.186

0.062130.176

0.062140.186

0.0630.1410.2

0.071160.199

0.072170.195

0.0830.1660.209

0.091190.212

0.097200.202

0.1030.1620.193

0.109220.189

0.114230.188

0.1140.1560.189

0.114250.193

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for ceiling height < 500 feetWarm season (April 2007 - September 2007); 1522 stations

VIS < 1 MI CS

0.51710.516

0.40920.415

0.330.1730.343

0.26740.289

0.2250.242

0.1760.1380.211

0.14270.19

0.11480.173

0.0960.1540.172

0.08100.174

0.072110.177

0.0640.1630.179

0.063130.177

0.061140.145

0.0580.1270.136

0.059160.135

0.06170.125

0.0630.1010.115

0.065190.113

0.07200.115

0.0740.1020.119

0.075220.119

0.074230.123

0.0750.1180.13

0.075250.135

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for visibility < 1 mileCool season (October 2007 - March 2008); 1591 stations

VIS < 1 MI WS

0.46110.464

0.34620.365

0.270.1440.28

0.18440.217

0.1250.195

0.0910.1440.201

0.07170.196

0.0680.188

0.0460.1460.167

0.039100.153

0.033110.144

0.030.1150.126

0.03130.128

0.032140.123

0.0350.1430.14

0.036160.148

0.044170.138

0.0510.1170.127

0.058190.111

0.068200.112

0.0740.1120.116

0.078220.125

0.082230.131

0.0810.1210.128

0.082250.141

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

Visibility < 1 mile - Warm Season (April 2007 - September 2007); 1591 stations

VIS < 0.5 MI CS

0.48210.466

0.35520.358

0.2790.1360.289

0.22440.248

0.18650.205

0.1540.1060.179

0.12670.173

0.10380.16

0.0860.1220.155

0.075100.151

0.063110.145

0.0630.1210.144

0.062130.13

0.057140.132

0.0510.1180.129

0.055160.134

0.05170.115

0.0530.0970.103

0.059190.102

0.061200.099

0.0660.0830.099

0.067220.1

0.069230.104

0.0660.0930.105

0.064250.105

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for visibility < 1/2 mileCool season (October 2007 - March 2008); 1591 stations

VIS < 0.5 MI WS

0.40610.408

0.30120.325

0.2330.1230.249

0.16240.192

0.10750.187

0.0820.1430.201

0.06570.195

0.05480.174

0.0420.1590.166

0.039100.159

0.034110.152

0.0310.140.15

0.033130.156

0.033140.151

0.040.1350.179

0.037160.168

0.044170.151

0.050.1350.136

0.051190.117

0.062200.104

0.0640.10.1

0.068220.107

0.066230.104

0.0670.1010.109

0.07250.12

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for visibility < 1/2 mileWarm season (April 2007 - September 2007); 1591 stations

Wind Direction Data

Wind Direction (MAE)


ProjectionPersistenceLAMPGFS MOSProjectionPersistenceLAMPGFS MOS

19.899.431111.0410.633

213.64811.362214.85112.618

317.01412.515.279317.4413.39416.042

419.99813.096420.56813.817

523.48113.426524.87214.254

627.66413.7614.682629.11115.06315.73

731.98514.327732.68116.014

836.06314.84836.07516.926

939.60815.3816.015939.0217.65117.869

1042.96815.7161042.23218.371

1146.14216.0481144.87619.216

1249.4416.36716.7771246.84719.89919.938

1352.26416.4291348.52420.348

1455.49516.8671449.62220.498

1557.21117.08217.4751551.00721.13820.999

1658.45816.771651.61821.489

1759.74116.4131750.67521.202

1861.55316.46616.8691848.98720.81420.683

1963.00516.3861948.58620.073

2065.1216.4532048.80519.721

2166.55716.5416.9052149.319.41619.254

2268.33816.4932250.79619.046

2369.8816.4342352.06218.832

2471.4616.71517.162454.30919.18819.195

2572.99316.8012556.09318.838

Temperature Data

Temperature (MAE)



11.121.0911.080.99

21.751.4921.71.28

32.33.121.8132.532.251.5

42.842.0544.041.69

53.722.2356.021.87

65.12.952.468.222.232.05

76.872.58710.52.23

88.722.73812.452.37

910.353.052.85914.022.652.5

1011.642.951015.212.6

1112.4831115.972.69

1212.843.0931216.262.872.78

1312.572.981316.022.83

1411.582.921415.22.84

1510.222.972.881513.632.822.78

169.042.851611.52.63

178.272.89179.442.52

187.853.022.98187.832.532.48

197.633.07196.722.48

207.563.18205.952.5

217.563.333.29215.42.62.54

227.633.35225.032.54

237.743.42234.832.55

247.883.513.47244.782.652.58

258.043.52254.842.58

1522 stations, 0900 UTC LAMP, 0000 UTC GFS MOSverification period: Oct 2007 Mar 2008Verification28

BSIM

2521.3

11.98

6.73.2

5.51.9

4.71.1

4.11.2

3.81.4

4.11.4

Ceiling Cool

Visibility Cool

Projection (hrs)

Brier Score Improvement of LAMP over MOS (%)

IMPROV

45.67164179147.222222222253.030303030361.0619469027

24.367088607626.470588235321.582733812924.3093922652

14.144736842115.96958174913.725490196114.201183432

14.383561643817.39130434789.16030534356.875

13.07420494718.42105263167.94392523367.7419354839

13.454545454513.65.72916666677.4626865672

10.676156583613.73390557949.23913043489.6551724138

11.870503597112.28813559329.47368421058.6705202312

Ceiling Cool

Ceiling Warm

Visibility Cool

Visibility Warm

Projection (hrs)

Threat Score Improvement of LAMP over MOS (%)

IMPROV data




30.4740.3350.48845.67164179130.4150.2880.42447.2222222222

60.3380.3160.39324.367088607660.2730.2720.34426.4705882353

90.2350.3040.34714.144736842190.1550.2630.30515.969581749

120.1680.2920.33414.3835616438120.1050.230.2717.3913043478

150.1470.2830.3213.074204947150.0980.2280.2718.4210526316

180.1420.2750.31213.4545454545180.1170.250.28413.6

210.1440.2810.31110.6761565836210.1380.2330.26513.7339055794

240.1380.2780.31111.8705035971240.1540.2360.26512.2881355932




30.390.2640.40453.030303030330.3160.2260.36461.0619469027

60.2530.2780.33821.582733812960.1130.1810.22524.3093922652

90.1580.2550.2913.725490196190.0590.1690.19314.201183432

120.1210.2620.2869.1603053435120.0440.160.1716.875

150.0970.2140.2317.9439252336150.0470.1550.1677.7419354839

180.0990.1920.2035.7291666667180.0660.1340.1447.4626865672

210.1030.1840.2019.2391304348210.1030.1450.1599.6551724138

240.10.190.2089.4736842105240.1230.1730.1888.6705202312

CIG < 1000 FT CS

0.6510.651

0.5470.542

0.4880.4740.335

0.4490.419

0.420.379

0.3930.3380.316

0.3720.302

0.3590.265

0.3470.2350.304

0.340.207

0.3410.185

0.3340.1680.292

0.3280.159

0.3260.151

0.320.1470.283

0.320.144

0.3170.143

0.3120.1420.275

0.320.144

0.3170.144

0.3110.1440.281

0.3140.143

0.3150.14

0.3110.1380.278

0.3140.137

b)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

CIG < 1000 FT WS

0.5950.596

0.4870.486

0.4240.4150.288

0.3870.361

0.3560.314

0.3440.2730.272

0.3310.229

0.3160.188

0.3050.1550.263

0.3020.132

0.2880.117

0.270.1050.23

0.2710.1

0.270.098

0.270.0980.228

0.2790.102

0.2850.106

0.2840.1170.25

0.2810.123

0.2690.129

0.2650.1380.233

0.2640.145

0.2670.151

0.2650.1540.236

0.2680.154

a)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

Ceiling Data




10.7170.7210.6580.66

20.6310.64820.5680.583

30.5740.4960.60630.5130.4460.544

40.5340.58640.4730.523

50.50.5750.4330.511

60.470.4950.55860.3990.4510.498

70.4420.54970.3680.48

80.4140.5480.3370.452

90.3860.4830.5390.3020.3880.429

100.3590.52100.270.412

110.3350.509110.2440.402

120.3110.4490.495120.220.3640.394

130.2940.485130.2070.392

140.2790.474140.1970.387

150.2680.4290.464150.190.3490.382

160.2610.462160.1890.385

170.2570.458170.1910.385

180.2540.420.455180.1950.3540.385

190.2510.454190.2020.387

200.2510.454200.2080.386

210.2480.4240.452210.2190.3610.392

220.2470.458220.2280.402

230.2450.456230.2320.402

240.2440.4320.459240.2360.3830.406

250.2420.463250.2360.405




10.65100.65110.59600.595

20.54200.54720.48600.487

30.4740.3350.4880.456716417930.4150.2880.4240.4722222222

40.41900.44940.36100.387

50.37900.4250.31400.356

60.3380.3160.3930.243670886160.2730.2720.3440.2647058824

70.30200.37270.22900.331

80.26500.35980.18800.316

90.2350.3040.3470.141447368490.1550.2630.3050.1596958175

100.20700.34100.13200.302

110.18500.341110.11700.288

120.1680.2920.3340.1438356164120.1050.230.270.1739130435

130.15900.328130.100.271

140.15100.326140.09800.27

150.1470.2830.320.1307420495150.0980.2280.270.1842105263

160.14400.32160.10200.279

170.14300.317170.10600.285

180.1420.2750.3120.1345454545180.1170.250.2840.136

190.14400.32190.12300.281

200.14400.317200.12900.269

210.1440.2810.3110.1067615658210.1380.2330.2650.1373390558

220.14300.314220.14500.264

230.1400.315230.15100.267

240.1380.2780.3110.118705036240.1540.2360.2650.1228813559

250.13700.314250.15400.268




10.6150.61510.5580.557

20.4890.48820.4320.431

30.410.2360.41130.3560.1950.36

40.3520.36140.2970.31

50.3110.32450.240.277

60.2660.2030.28660.1890.1910.268

70.2260.26170.1490.263

80.1890.23980.1160.249

90.1550.1750.22290.0940.1860.235

100.1320.215100.0810.213

110.1160.216110.0720.199

120.1040.1570.213120.0660.130.186

130.0980.206130.0620.176

140.0950.208140.0620.186

150.0980.1640.208150.0630.1410.2

160.0990.207160.0710.199

170.0990.202170.0720.195

180.0990.1770.2180.0830.1660.209

190.1010.213190.0910.212

200.0990.213200.0970.202

210.10.1950.209210.1030.1620.193

220.0990.215220.1090.189

230.0980.216230.1140.188

240.0950.1880.217240.1140.1560.189

250.0930.219250.1140.193

VIS < 3 MI CS

0.5730.574

0.4620.461

0.4040.390.264

0.3740.341

0.3590.297

0.3380.2530.278

0.3120.213

0.2960.182

0.290.1580.255

0.2870.141

0.2820.129

0.2860.1210.262

0.2770.111

0.2550.106

0.2310.0970.214

0.220.095

0.2120.097

0.2030.0990.192

0.2020.101

0.2040.102

0.2010.1030.184

0.2040.102

0.2060.103

0.2080.10.19

0.2050.098

b)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

VIS < 3 MI WS

0.5070.509

0.430.394

0.3640.3160.226

0.2690.232

0.2280.156

0.2250.1130.181

0.2150.087

0.2120.075

0.1930.0590.169

0.180.052

0.1810.047

0.1710.0440.16

0.1730.043

0.1840.044

0.1670.0470.155

0.1560.049

0.1510.055

0.1440.0660.134

0.1470.078

0.1550.092

0.1590.1030.145

0.1730.114

0.1790.12

0.1880.1230.173

0.1990.125

a)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

Visibility Data




10.57400.57310.5090.507

20.46100.46220.3940.43

30.390.2640.4040.530303030330.3160.2260.3640.610619469

40.34100.37440.2320.269

50.29700.35950.1560.228

60.2530.2780.3380.215827338160.1130.1810.2250.2430939227

70.21300.31270.0870.215

80.18200.29680.0750.212

90.1580.2550.290.13725490290.0590.1690.1930.1420118343

100.14100.287100.05200.18

110.12900.282110.04700.181

120.1210.2620.2860.0916030534120.0440.160.1710.06875

130.11100.277130.04300.173

140.10600.255140.04400.184

150.0970.2140.2310.0794392523150.0470.1550.1670.0774193548

160.09500.22160.04900.156

170.09700.212170.05500.151

180.0990.1920.2030.0572916667180.0660.1340.1440.0746268657

190.10100.202190.07800.147

200.10200.204200.09200.155

210.1030.1840.2010.0923913043210.1030.1450.1590.0965517241

220.10200.204220.11400.173

230.10300.206230.1200.179

240.10.190.2080.0947368421240.1230.1730.1880.0867052023

250.09800.205250.12500.199

min0.201min0.144

Visibility < 1 mile



10.5170.51610.4610.464

20.4090.41520.3460.365

30.330.1730.34330.270.1440.28

40.2670.28940.1840.217

50.220.24250.120.195

60.1760.1380.21160.0910.1440.201

70.1420.1970.0710.196

80.1140.17380.060.188

90.0960.1540.17290.0460.1460.167

100.080.174100.0390.153

110.0720.177110.0330.144

120.0640.1630.179120.030.1150.126

130.0630.177130.030.128

140.0610.145140.0320.123

150.0580.1270.136150.0350.1430.14

160.0590.135160.0360.148

170.060.125170.0440.138

180.0630.1010.115180.0510.1170.127

190.0650.113190.0580.111

200.070.115200.0680.112

210.0740.1020.119210.0740.1120.116

220.0750.119220.0780.125

230.0740.123230.0820.131

240.0750.1180.13240.0810.1210.128

250.0750.135250.0820.141

Visibility < 1/2 mile



10.4820.46610.4060.408

20.3550.35820.3010.325

30.2790.1360.28930.2330.1230.249

40.2240.24840.1620.192

50.1860.20550.1070.187

60.1540.1060.17960.0820.1430.201

70.1260.17370.0650.195

80.1030.1680.0540.174

90.0860.1220.15590.0420.1590.166

100.0750.151100.0390.159

110.0630.145110.0340.152

120.0630.1210.144120.0310.140.15

130.0620.13130.0330.156

140.0570.132140.0330.151

150.0510.1180.129150.040.1350.179

160.0550.134160.0370.168

170.050.115170.0440.151

180.0530.0970.103180.050.1350.136

190.0590.102190.0510.117

200.0610.099200.0620.104

210.0660.0830.099210.0640.10.1

220.0670.1220.0680.107

230.0690.104230.0660.104

240.0660.0930.105240.0670.1010.109

250.0640.105250.070.12

0.144

0.201

IFR or worse WS

0.5870.589

0.5020.482

0.4410.4110.317

0.3870.351

0.3570.296

0.3460.250.284

0.3350.208

0.3190.17

0.3040.140.272

0.2930.12

0.280.108

0.270.0980.246

0.2660.093

0.2680.092

0.2670.0940.241

0.2660.096

0.2710.103

0.2660.1160.244

0.260.126

0.2570.135

0.2590.1460.241

0.2650.157

0.270.165

0.2730.1680.259

0.280.171

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

IFR conditions or lower - Warm Season

IFR or worse CS

0.6590.658

0.5620.556

0.5070.4890.374

0.4740.437

0.4510.394

0.430.3520.367

0.4110.314

0.3960.276

0.3870.2450.348

0.3790.218

0.3770.197

0.3770.1810.342

0.3720.17

0.3660.161

0.3490.1540.323

0.3420.151

0.3380.151

0.3320.1520.305

0.3330.156

0.3330.157

0.330.1560.308

0.3330.156

0.330.154

0.330.1520.31

0.3290.15

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

Threat score

IFR Conditions or lower - Cool Season

IFR Data

IFR or worse



10.65800.65910.58900.587

20.55600.56220.48200.502

30.4890.3740.5070.355614973330.4110.3170.4410.3911671924

40.43700.47440.35100.387

50.39400.45150.29600.357

60.3520.3670.430.171662125360.250.2840.3460.2183098592

70.31400.41170.20800.335

80.27600.39680.1700.319

90.2450.3480.3870.112068965590.140.2720.3040.1176470588

100.21800.379100.1200.293

110.19700.377110.10800.28

120.1810.3420.3770.1023391813120.0980.2460.270.0975609756

130.1700.372130.09300.266

140.16100.366140.09200.268

150.1540.3230.3490.080495356150.0940.2410.2670.1078838174

160.15100.342160.09600.266

170.15100.338170.10300.271

180.1520.3050.3320.0885245902180.1160.2440.2660.0901639344

190.15600.333190.12600.26

200.15700.333200.13500.257

210.1560.3080.330.0714285714210.1460.2410.2590.0746887967

220.15600.333220.15700.265

230.15400.33230.16500.27

240.1520.310.330.064516129240.1680.2590.2730.0540540541

250.1500.329250.17100.28

min0.3050.329min0.2410.257

0.257

0.241

0.329

0.305

Wind Direction CS

9.899.4311

13.64811.3622

17.01412.515.279

19.99813.0964

23.48113.4265

27.66413.7614.682

31.98514.3277

36.06314.848

39.60815.3816.015

42.96815.71610

46.14216.04811

49.4416.36716.777

52.26416.42913

55.49516.86714

57.21117.08217.475

58.45816.7716

59.74116.41317

61.55316.46616.869

63.00516.38619

65.1216.45320

66.55716.5416.905

68.33816.49322

69.8816.43423

71.4616.71517.16

72.99316.80125

b)

Persistence

LAMP

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

MAE (degrees)

Wind Direction WS

10.63311.04

12.61814.851

13.39417.4416.042

13.81720.568

14.25424.872

15.06329.11115.73

16.01432.681

16.92636.075

17.65139.0217.869

18.37142.232

19.21644.876

19.89946.84719.938

20.34848.524

20.49849.622

21.13851.00720.999

21.48951.618

21.20250.675

20.81448.98720.683

20.07348.586

19.72148.805

19.41649.319.254

19.04650.796

18.83252.062

19.18854.30919.195

18.83856.093

a)

LAMP

Persistence

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

MAE (degrees)

Wind Speed CS

1.791.771

2.141.992

2.42.122.35

2.652.224

3.012.315

3.52.412.49

3.962.477

4.332.538

4.612.582.64

4.822.610

4.952.611

4.972.612.66

4.862.5713

4.652.5514

4.492.512.53

4.432.4816

4.442.517

4.452.522.52

4.472.519

4.52.4920

4.52.512.51

4.532.4822

4.532.4823

4.552.492.5

4.572.4825

b)

Persistence

LAMP

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

MAE (kts)

Wind Speed WS

1.611.611

1.91.782

2.161.912.06

2.612.054

3.162.155

3.612.252.29

3.992.337

4.312.48

4.612.482.49

4.862.5110

5.052.5511

5.162.592.6

5.132.5613

4.892.5214

4.462.482.49

4.052.416

3.792.3517

3.622.342.33

3.512.3119

3.422.2820

3.362.262.25

3.322.2222

3.292.1923

3.282.192.17

3.282.1625

a)

Persistence

LAMP

GFS MOS

Projection (hrs)

MAE (kts)

Wind Speed Data

Wind Speed (MAE)


ProjectionPersistenceLAMPGFS MOSLAMP Impr. Over MOSProjectionPersistenceLAMPGFS MOSLAMP Impr. Over MOS

11.791.77011.611.610

22.141.99021.91.780

32.42.122.350.097872340432.161.912.060.072815534

42.652.22042.612.050

53.012.31053.162.150

63.52.412.490.032128514163.612.252.290.0174672489

73.962.47073.992.330

84.332.53084.312.40

94.612.582.640.022727272794.612.482.490.0040160643

104.822.60104.862.510

114.952.60115.052.550

124.972.612.660.0187969925125.162.592.60.0038461538

134.862.570135.132.560

144.652.550144.892.520

154.492.512.530.0079051383154.462.482.490.0040160643

164.432.480164.052.40

174.442.50173.792.350

184.452.522.520183.622.342.33-0.0042918455

194.472.50193.512.310

204.52.490203.422.280

214.52.512.510213.362.262.25-0.0044444444

224.532.480223.322.220

234.532.480233.292.190

244.552.492.50.004243.282.192.17-0.0092165899

254.572.480253.282.160

Temperature CS

1.0911.12

1.4921.75

1.813.122.3

2.0542.84

2.2353.72

2.42.955.1

2.5876.87

2.7388.72

2.853.0510.35

2.951011.64

31112.48

33.0912.84

2.981312.57

2.921411.58

2.882.9710.22

2.85169.04

2.89178.27

2.983.027.85

3.07197.63

3.18207.56

3.293.337.56

3.35227.63

3.42237.74

3.473.517.88

3.52258.04

b)

LAMP

GFS MOS

Persistence

Projection (hours)

MAE

Temperature - Cool Season

Temperature WS

0.9911.08

1.2821.7

1.52.252.53

1.6944.04

1.8756.02

2.052.238.22

2.23710.5

2.37812.45

2.52.6514.02

2.61015.21

2.691115.97

2.782.8716.26

2.831316.02

2.841415.2

2.782.8213.63

2.631611.5

2.52179.44

2.482.537.83

2.48196.72

2.5205.95

2.542.65.4

2.54225.03

2.55234.83

2.582.654.78

2.58254.84

a)

LAMP

GFS MOS

Persistence

Projection (hours)

MAE

Temperature - Warm season

CIG < 3000 FT CS

0.71710.72

0.63120.648

0.5740.4960.606

0.53440.586

0.550.57

0.470.4950.558

0.44270.549

0.41480.54

0.3860.4830.53

0.359100.52

0.335110.509

0.3110.4490.495

0.294130.485

0.279140.474

0.2680.4290.464

0.261160.462

0.257170.458

0.2540.420.455

0.251190.454

0.251200.454

0.2480.4240.452

0.247220.458

0.245230.456

0.2440.4320.459

0.242250.463

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for ceiling height 3000 feet Cool season (October 2007 - March 2008); 1522 stations

CIG < 3000 FT WS

0.65810.66

0.56820.583

0.5130.4460.544

0.47340.523

0.43350.511

0.3990.4510.498

0.36870.48

0.33780.452

0.3020.3880.429

0.27100.412

0.244110.402

0.220.3640.394

0.207130.392

0.197140.387

0.190.3490.382

0.189160.385

0.191170.385

0.1950.3540.385

0.202190.387

0.208200.386

0.2190.3610.392

0.228220.402

0.232230.402

0.2360.3830.406

0.236250.405

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for ceiling height 3000 feet Warm season (April 2007 - September 2007); 1522 stations

CIG < 500 FT CS

0.61510.615

0.48920.488

0.410.2360.411

0.35240.361

0.31150.324

0.2660.2030.286

0.22670.261

0.18980.239

0.1550.1750.222

0.132100.215

0.116110.216

0.1040.1570.213

0.098130.206

0.095140.208

0.0980.1640.208

0.099160.207

0.099170.202

0.0990.1770.2

0.101190.213

0.099200.213

0.10.1950.209

0.099220.215

0.098230.216

0.0950.1880.217

0.093250.219

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for ceiling height < 500 feetCool season (October 2007 - March 2008); 1522 stations

CIG < 500 FT WS

0.55810.557

0.43220.431

0.3560.1950.36

0.29740.31

0.2450.277

0.1890.1910.268

0.14970.263

0.11680.249

0.0940.1860.235

0.081100.213

0.072110.199

0.0660.130.186

0.062130.176

0.062140.186

0.0630.1410.2

0.071160.199

0.072170.195

0.0830.1660.209

0.091190.212

0.097200.202

0.1030.1620.193

0.109220.189

0.114230.188

0.1140.1560.189

0.114250.193

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for ceiling height < 500 feetWarm season (April 2007 - September 2007); 1522 stations

VIS < 1 MI CS

0.51710.516

0.40920.415

0.330.1730.343

0.26740.289

0.2250.242

0.1760.1380.211

0.14270.19

0.11480.173

0.0960.1540.172

0.08100.174

0.072110.177

0.0640.1630.179

0.063130.177

0.061140.145

0.0580.1270.136

0.059160.135

0.06170.125

0.0630.1010.115

0.065190.113

0.07200.115

0.0740.1020.119

0.075220.119

0.074230.123

0.0750.1180.13

0.075250.135

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for visibility < 1 mileCool season (October 2007 - March 2008); 1591 stations

VIS < 1 MI WS

0.46110.464

0.34620.365

0.270.1440.28

0.18440.217

0.1250.195

0.0910.1440.201

0.07170.196

0.0680.188

0.0460.1460.167

0.039100.153

0.033110.144

0.030.1150.126

0.03130.128

0.032140.123

0.0350.1430.14

0.036160.148

0.044170.138

0.0510.1170.127

0.058190.111

0.068200.112

0.0740.1120.116

0.078220.125

0.082230.131

0.0810.1210.128

0.082250.141

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

Visibility < 1 mile - Warm Season (April 2007 - September 2007); 1591 stations

VIS < 0.5 MI CS

0.48210.466

0.35520.358

0.2790.1360.289

0.22440.248

0.18650.205

0.1540.1060.179

0.12670.173

0.10380.16

0.0860.1220.155

0.075100.151

0.063110.145

0.0630.1210.144

0.062130.13

0.057140.132

0.0510.1180.129

0.055160.134

0.05170.115

0.0530.0970.103

0.059190.102

0.061200.099

0.0660.0830.099

0.067220.1

0.069230.104

0.0660.0930.105

0.064250.105

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for visibility < 1/2 mileCool season (October 2007 - March 2008); 1591 stations

VIS < 0.5 MI WS

0.40610.408

0.30120.325

0.2330.1230.249

0.16240.192

0.10750.187

0.0820.1430.201

0.06570.195

0.05480.174

0.0420.1590.166

0.039100.159

0.034110.152

0.0310.140.15

0.033130.156

0.033140.151

0.040.1350.179

0.037160.168

0.044170.151

0.050.1350.136

0.051190.117

0.062200.104

0.0640.10.1

0.068220.107

0.066230.104

0.0670.1010.109

0.07250.12

Persistence

GFS MOS

LAMP

Projection (hours)

Threat score

0900 UTC threat for visibility < 1/2 mileWarm season (April 2007 - September 2007); 1591 stations

Wind Direction Data

Wind Direction (MAE)


ProjectionPersistenceLAMPGFS MOSProjectionPersistenceLAMPGFS MOS

19.899.431111.0410.633

213.64811.362214.85112.618

317.01412.515.279317.4413.39416.042

419.99813.096420.56813.817

523.48113.426524.87214.254

627.66413.7614.682629.11115.06315.73

731.98514.327732.68116.014

836.06314.84836.07516.926

939.60815.3816.015939.0217.65117.869

1042.96815.7161042.23218.371

1146.14216.0481144.87619.216

1249.4416.36716.7771246.84719.89919.938

1352.26416.4291348.52420.348

1455.49516.8671449.62220.498

1557.21117.08217.4751551.00721.13820.999

1658.45816.771651.61821.489

1759.74116.4131750.67521.202

1861.55316.46616.8691848.98720.81420.683

1963.00516.3861948.58620.073

2065.1216.4532048.80519.721

2166.55716.5416.9052149.319.41619.254

2268.33816.4932250.79619.046

2369.8816.4342352.06218.832

2471.4616.71517.162454.30919.18819.195

2572.99316.8012556.09318.838

Temperature Data

Temperature (MAE)



11.121.0911.080.99

21.751.4921.71.28

32.33.121.8132.532.251.5

42.842.0544.041.69

53.722.2356.021.87

65.12.952.468.222.232.05

76.872.58710.52.23

88.722.73812.452.37

910.353.052.85914.022.652.5

1011.642.951015.212.6

1112.4831115.972.69

1212.843.0931216.262.872.78

1312.572.981316.022.83

1411.582.921415.22.84

1510.222.972.881513.632.822.78

169.042.851611.52.63

178.272.89179.442.52

187.853.022.98187.832.532.48

197.633.07196.722.48

207.563.18205.952.5

217.563.333.29215.42.62.54

227.633.35225.032.54

237.743.42234.832.55

247.883.513.47244.782.652.58

258.043.52254.842.58

Gridded LAMP Work Gridded observations and LAMP forecasts of: Temperature Dewpoint Ceiling Height (100s of ft) Visibility (miles) Other elements later Will be available via the NextGen 4-D Data Cube

Status: Running experimentally at NCEP as of 9/28/2010 Available in Experimental NDGD Images available on MDL/LAMP web page

Gridded LAMP Work Gridded LAMP analyses of observations for checkout and verification Temperature and Dewpoint: Observations from METAR, Mesonet, synoptic stations, C-MAN, tide gauges, and moored buoys (Roughly 10,000 12,000 observations per hour) Ceiling and Visibility: Observations from METAR Analysis of LAMP forecasts Temperature and dewpoint: continuous values are analyzed Ceiling Ht and Vis: categorical values are converted to continuous values Technique: MDL Gridding Technique used in Gridded MOS, with modifications

Gridded LAMP Work: Gridded ObservationsVisibilityCeiling Height ObservationsVisibility Observations

Gridded LAMP Work: Gridded ForecastsCeiling Ht Forecasts 1-25 hoursVisibility Forecasts 1-25 hours

Gridded LAMP Work: Gridded Probability ForecastsCeiling Ht Prob. Forecasts 1-25 hrsVisibility Prob. Forecasts 1-25 hrsNot yet implemented

Thunderstorm (current) Convection (future)Future Work: New LAMP Convective Guidance Features: Defined from Cloud-to-Ground (CTG) ltg GFS MOS 3-h thunderstorm probability predictors 2-h period / 20-km gridboxes 1-h cycle; 3 25 h projections Other predictors Criticisms: Convection can occur without lightning Thunderstorm probabilities lack sharpness Features: Defined from CTG ltg / 40 dBZ radar reflectivity GFS & NAM MOS 2-h convective probability predictors 2-h period / 20-km gridboxes 1-h cycle; 3 25 h projections Other predictors Solution: Convection can be indicated when there is little or no lightning Convection probabilities exhibit good sharpness

18-h LAMP probabilities and verification from 1800 UTC 21 Jul 2010LAMP Lightning ProductLAMP Convection ProductVerifying Lightning/Radar

6-h LAMP probabilities and verification from 1800 UTC 21 Aug 2010LAMP Lightning ProductLAMP Convection Product

18-h LAMP probabilities and verification from 1800 UTC 29 Sep 2010LAMP Lightning ProductLAMP Convection Product

Future Plans Station work: Add 119 stations to match those which were added to GFS MOS 03/2010 Test the effects of adding Canadian and marine stations to help Gridded LAMP products. (Additional stations should benefit Gridded LAMP products) Redevelop LAMP station guidance of ceiling height and opaque sky cover Forecast Consistency Minimize temporal inconsistencies for aviation weather elements Remove all inter-element inconsistencies Gridded Work: Verify grids Add ceiling height and visibility probabilities Test/revise temperature and dewpoint GLMP scheme Add sky cover, winds, obstruction to vision New LAMP Convection product

Questions?LAMP Website:http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/gfslamp.shtml LAMP Mailing List for notification/announcements:http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/lamp/joinlist.shtml Training Materials: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/gfslamp/docs/presentations.shtmlTraining on LAMP Background: An Introduction to The Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) by David Rudack. Training on LAMP Products: Accessing and Using GFS LAMP Products by Scott Scallion. Contact:[email protected]

Documents

Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) for Aviation Forecasting Judy E. Ghirardelli