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LNG North American Summit 2008
Houston, TexasJune 19, 2008
James M. Kendell
Energy Information [email protected]
U.S. Natural Gas Storage and The Global LNG Market
Natural Gas Consumption, 2000–2008 (Billion cubic feet per day)
Source: International Energy Agency, Monthly Gas Data Service
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
OECD North America
OECD Europe
OECD Asia
World Underground Working Storage Capacity, 2006
(Trillion cubic feet)
0.1
4.5 2.74.0
Sources: Cedigaz, Underground Gas Storage in the World, June 2006; Energy Information Administration, Office of Energy Markets and End Use
17% of Annual Gas Consumption
1%
16%14%
Working Gas in U.S. Underground Storage, 2003-2008
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000J
an
-20
03
Ju
n-2
00
3
No
v-2
00
3
Ap
r-2
00
4
Se
p-2
00
4
Fe
b-2
00
5
Ju
l-2
00
5
De
c-2
00
5
Ma
y-2
00
6
Oc
t-2
00
6
Ma
r-2
00
7
Au
g-2
00
7
Ja
n-2
00
8
Bill
ion
Cu
bic
Fe
et
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Pe
rce
nt
Change in Working Gas from Same Month Previous Year (%) Working Gas (Bcf)
Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, Natural Gas Monthly April 2008.
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Imports, 2003-2008
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
Jan
-03
Jul-
03
Jan
-04
Jul-
04
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Bil
lio
n C
ub
ic F
ee
t
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
Ja
n-0
3
Ju
l-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Ju
l-0
4
Ja
n-0
5
Ju
l-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Ju
l-0
6
Ja
n-0
7
Ju
l-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Bill
ion
Cu
bic
Fe
et
Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, Natural Gas Monthly April 2008.
Production Imports
Source: Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas, Natural Gas Monthly April 2008.
U.S. LNG Imports by Season, 2000-2008
(Billion cubic feet per day)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Mar
-May
Jun
-Au
g
Sep
t-N
ov
Dec
-Feb
Mar
-May
Jun
-Au
g
Sep
t-N
ov
Dec
-Feb
Mar
-May
Jun
-Au
g
Sep
t-N
ov
Dec
-Feb
Mar
-May
Jun
-Au
g
Sep
t-N
ov
Dec
-Feb
Mar
-May
Jun
-Au
gS
ept-
No
v
Dec
-Feb
Mar
-May
Jun
-Au
g
Sep
t-N
ov
Dec
-Feb
Mar
-May
Jun
-Au
g
Sep
t-N
ov
Dec
-Feb
Mar
-May
Jun
-Au
gS
ept-
No
v
Dec
-Feb
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
U.S. LNG Imports and U.S./U.K. Price Differentials, 2005-2008
0
20
40
60
80
100
12011
/15/
2005
1/15
/200
6
3/15
/200
6
5/15
/200
6
7/15
/200
6
9/15
/200
6
11/1
5/20
06
1/15
/200
7
3/15
/200
7
5/15
/200
7
7/15
/200
7
9/15
/200
7
11/1
5/20
07
1/15
/200
8
Bill
ion
Cu
bic
Fee
t p
er M
on
th
-$6-$4-$2$0$2$4$6$8$10$12
Do
llars
per
MM
Btu
Note: Import volumes for December 2007 and January 2008 are estimates.
Source: Import data: DOE Office of Fossil Energy; Price data: EIA, derived as National Balancing Point spot price minus Henry Hub spot price.
U.S. LNG Imports
U.S./U.K. Price Differentials
Note: MMcf/d = million cubic feet per daySource: Energy Information Administration, GasTran Gas Transportation Information System, Natural Gas Pipeline Projects Database.
Major Natural Gas Pipeline Corridor Expansions, 2005-2009
U.S./U.K. Price Differentials, 2005-2008
Source: Energy Information Administration – History: derived as the National Balancing Point spot price minus the Henry Hub spot price; June 2008 – June 2009: IPE forward price minus NYMEX price for future delivery at the Henry Hub.
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
11
/1/2
00
5
1/1
/20
06
3/1
/20
06
5/1
/20
06
7/1
/20
06
9/1
/20
06
11
/1/2
00
6
1/1
/20
07
3/1
/20
07
5/1
/20
07
7/1
/20
07
9/1
/20
07
11
/1/2
00
7
1/1
/20
08
3/1
/20
08
5/1
/20
08
7/1
/20
08
9/1
/20
08
11
/1/2
00
8
1/1
/20
09
3/1
/20
09
5/1
/20
09
Do
lla
rs p
er
Mil
lio
n B
tu History
Differences in Forward Prices, +/- 1
Standard Deviation
Future
Natural Gas Spot Price at the Henry Hub and Volatility, 2000-2008
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1/1
5/2
00
0
1/1
5/2
00
1
1/1
5/2
00
2
1/1
5/2
00
3
1/1
5/2
00
4
1/1
5/2
00
5
1/1
5/2
00
6
1/1
5/2
00
7
1/1
5/2
00
8
Do
llars
pe
r M
illio
n B
tu
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Vo
lati
lity
(P
erc
en
t)
Source: Derived by Energy Information Administration, Office of Oil and Gas.
Source: Wood Mackenzie's Global LNG Online Service, Wood MacKenzie, Ltd; Shell Oil, as presented at the Energy Information Administration’s 2008 Conference, Washington D.C., April 6-7, (Proceedings available at http://www.iea.doe.gov/eia_conference_2008.html).
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Mill
ion
Tons
per
Yea
r
Pacific Basin Middle East Atlantic Basin
Today 2012
LNG Importers 17 29
LNG Exporters 15 18
Importers, Exporters, and World Liquefaction Capacity, 2005-2012
Source: Andrew Flower LNG Associates, as presented at the Energy Information Administration’s 2008 Conference, Washington D.C., April 6-7, (Proceedings available at http://www.iea.doe.gov/eia_conference_2008.html).
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Mill
ion
To
ns
per
Yea
rWorld LNG Short-term Trades,
1992-2007
3,400
3,600
3,800
4,000
4,200
4,400
4,600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Bil
lio
n c
ub
ic f
eet
20.5
21
21.5
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
Tri
llio
n c
ub
ic f
eet
Working Gas Capacity Total Consumption
History Potential
Source: Capacity: Energy Information Administration, GasTran Gas Transportation Information System, Natural Gas Pipeline Projects Database.Consumption: Short-Term Energy Outlook, May 2008
Underground U.S. Natural Gas Storage Working Gas Capacity and
Consumption, 2000-2009
U.S. LNG Imports, 2005–2009
Source: Energy Information Administration. History derived from Office of Fossil Energy data; Forecast: Short-Term Energy Outlook, June 2008
(Billion cubic feet per Month)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Nov
-05
Jan
-06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-
06
Sep
-06
Nov
-06
Jan
-07
Mar
-07
May
-07
Jul-
07
Sep
-07
Nov
-07
Jan
-08
Mar
-08
May
-08
Jul-
08
Sep
-08
Nov
-08
Jan
-09
Mar
-09
May
-09
Jul-
09
Sep
-09
Nov
-09
2007 = 771 Bcf2008 = 531 Bcf2009 = 850 Bcf
History Forecast
James M. Kendell
Energy Information Administration
Recurring Publications:
Annual Energy Outlook 2008, April 2008 (early release)
Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly
International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007
Special Reports:
U.S. Natural Gas Imports and Exports: Issues and Trends 2006, February 2008
U.S. Underground Natural Gas Storage Developments: 1998-2005, October 2006
Estimate of Maximum Underground Working Gas Storage Capacity in the United States: 2007 Update, October 2007