LMI 201: Intermediate LMI Analyzing Regions

NCWorks Partnership Conference

October 24, 2019

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Funding

Multiple sources, including state $. Most significantly by US Dept. of Labor (BLS & ETA)

NC’s primary source of economic & labor market data, information, & analysis

LMI 101 ReviewDon’t worry, you won't be graded!

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W T PWhat

Work Structures (Industry,

Occupation) or Labor Force Statistics

Time

Trend, Current, Real Time, Projections

Place

Geography (Nation, State, County, WDB,

PZ, etc.)

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Industry vs. Occupation?

Industry• A group of establishments (workplaces) that produce

similar products or provide similar services• Defined by NAICS Codes

Occupation• A set of activities or tasks that employees are paid

to perform.

Employees that perform essentially the same tasks are in the same occupation, whether they are in the same industry or not

• Defined by SOC Codes

Why can’t I get the data I want?

Suppression• Due to small amount of data that could reveal confidential information about

specific company(ies) or workers

How to get the data you want…General Rule: Increase your search area!

What (Work Structure)

• Instead of 4-digit NAICS, look at 6-digit• Instead of 6-digit SOC, look at 2-digit

Place (Geography)

• Instead of County Area, search for Prosperity Zone, WDB Area or MSA level

Let’s look at Work StructuresIndustry

Industry Codes

NAICS:

72: Accommodation & Food Services722: Food Services & Drinking Places7225: Restaurants & Other Eating Places722513: Snack & Non-Alcoholic Beverage Bars

North American Industrial Classification System codes (NAICS)

2- to 6-digit codes from broad to detailed

• D4.nccommerce.com• QCEW

As of Q1, 2019, what industry is the largest employer in the Northwest Prosperity Zone?

Where to get Industry Data

D4.nccommerce.com• Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW)

• Current Employment Statistics

NCWorks.gov• Labor market profiles -> Industry Profile -> Industry Summary

NCcareers.org• Industry projections

Let’s look at Industry ProjectionsWhat industries are projected to grow/decline in your area?

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Projections

Long Term (10 Year)

Geography:

• State-wide & 16 Prosperity Sub-Zones

Updated:

• Every two years, normally released in July

• Plan to update annually starting in 2020

Short Term (2 Year)

Geography:

• State-wide & 16 Prosperity Sub-Zones

Updated:

• Every year in March

Considering a Medium Term (5 Year) product

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Projections

What Projections are:

• Our “Best Guess” for the economic direction of the state:

• A long-term look into future Industry and Occupational Employment based on previous trends and current information.

• An informative, data-driven, information source that is useful as a part of the decision-making process for workforce and training solutions.

What Projections are not:

• A 100% accurate estimate of future employment that considers the business cycle and other disruptive events such as:

• The Great Recession

• Amazon’s HQ2

• An “All-In-One” solution for future workforce and training requirements.

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An illustration of “Best Guess”

Prosper i ty Zones16

Western Region

Southwest Region

Sandhills Region

Southeast Region

Northeast RegionNorth Central RegionPiedmont-Triad Region

Northwest Region

P r o s p e r i t y Z o n e S u b - R e g i o n s

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Waynesville-Franklin

Asheville

Boone-Wilkesboro

Winston-Salem Greensboro

Raleigh-Durham Greenville

Elizabeth City

Rocky Mount-Wilson

Jacksonville-New Bern

Wilmington

Charlotte

Pinehurst-Rockingham

Fayetteville-Lumberton

Hickory

Goldsboro-Kinston

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What are the projected fastest growing industries in the Wilmington Region?

• NCcareers.org• Employment Projections

Let’s look at Work StructuresOccupations

Occupations have changed over time

SOC Occupational Title Year Measured

47-2231 Solar PV Installers 2010

15-2041 Statisticians on 1970

31-1011 Home Health Aides (Home Health Aides, Exc. Nursing on 1970)

2000

15-1132 Software Developers, Apps (Comp.

Software Engineers, Apps on 2000)

2010

39-9021 Personal Care Aides (Welfare Service Aides on 1970)

2000

49-3091 Bicycle Repairers 2000

29-1171 Nurse Practitioners 2010

15-1122 Information Security Analysts 2010

29-1071 Physician Assistants 1980

15-2011 Actuaries on 1970

SOC Occupational Title Year Measured

29-1126 Respiratory Therapists (Inhalation

Therapists on 1980)

1990

15-2031 Operations Research Analysts (Ops. &

Systems Researchers & Analysts on 1970)

2000

29-9092 Genetic Counselors 2010

39-2021 Nonfarm Animal Caretakers on 1970

13-1161 Market Research Analysts & Marketing Specialists

2000

15-2021 Mathematicians on 1970

17-1021 Cartographers & Photogrammetrists 2000

25-1071 Health Specialties Teachers, Postsecondary

on 1970

31-2021 Physical Therapists Assts. 2000

29-2032 Diagnostic Medical Sonographers 2000

Top 20 Fastest Growing Occupations (Not suppressed)

RoutineManual

“Blue Collar Jobs”

Non-RoutineManual

“Service Jobs”

Non-RoutineCognitive

“Knowledge Jobs”

RoutineCognitive

“Office & Sales Jobs”

26%

40%

11% 16%

25%

20%

38%

24%

1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Share of NC’s Primary Jobsby type of work requirements1990 2018

Non-Routine Manual

Routine Cognitive

Routine Manual

Non-Routine Cognitive

Source: Analysis of Current Population Survey

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Where to get Occupational Data

D4.nccommerce.com• Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

NCWorks.gov• Labor market profiles -> Occupational Profile -> Occupational Summary

NCcareers.org• Star Jobs

• Occupational Projections

O*Net Online• Related Occupations

• Crosswalks

Occupation CodesStandard Occupation Classification System (SOC) from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2- to 6-digit codes from broad to detailed

Occupations (SOC) Cashier:• 41-0000 Sales & Related Occs.• 41-2000 Retail Sales Workers • 41-2011 Cashier

Occupations (SOC) Butcher:• 51-0000 Production Occupations• 51-3000 Food Processing Workers• 51-3021 Butchers & Other. Meat,

Poultry & Fish Processing Workers

Occupations (SOC) Stock Clerk:• 43-0000 Office and Admin Support Occs.• 43-5000 Material Recording, Scheduling,

Dispatching & Distributing Workers• 43-5080 Stock Clerks & Order Fillers

• D4.nccommerce.com

• Occupational Employment Statistics

Is the median annual wage for Computer System Analysts (SOC 15-1121) higher in the Southwest Prosperity Zone than the state as a whole?

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If you don’t overlap time periods, you can compare occupations across time in the OES to see how occupations have grown like the chart to the right.

True or False

Year 0 Year 5 Year 10 Year 15 Year 20

Growth of Health Care Professions

Nursing Nurse Practitioners Phlebotomists

Source: Occupational Employment Statistics

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OES is not Time Series Data!

• Coding changes with each new Standardized Occupational Classification Manual update (2018, 2010, 2000, 1990, 1980, 1970, etc..)

• Even with this- there was the example of May 2018 data release

False

2000 2005 2010 2015

Health Care Professions

Nursing Nurse Practitioners Phlebotomists

Source: Occupational Employment Statistics (Release 2000 – 2015)

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11 New OES Occupations – May 2018

2018 SOC Occupational Title Previous SOCs

13-1020 Buyers & Purchasing Agents 13-1021, 13-1022, 13-1023

15-2090 Mathematical Science Occupations, All Other 15-2091, 15-2099

21-1018 Substance Abuse, Behavioral Disorder, & Mental Health Counselors 21-1011, 21-1014

29-2010 Clinical Laboratory Technologists & Technicians 29-2011, 29-2012

39-1010 First-Line Supervisors of Gaming Workers 39-1011, 39-1012

39-7010 Tour and Travel Guides 39-7011, 39-7012

45-3000 Fishing and Hunting Workers 45-3021

47-4090 Miscellaneous Construction & Related Workers 47-4091, 47-4099

51-2028 Electrical, Electronic & Electromechanical Assemblers, Exc. Coil-Winding, Tapers, & Finishers

51-2022, 51-2023

51-2098 Assemblers and Fabricators, All Other, Including Team Assemblers 51-2092, 51-2099

53-1048 First-Line Supervisors of Transportation and Material Moving, Exc. Aircraft Cargo Handling Supervisors

53-1021, 53-1031

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‘Entry’ and ‘Experienced’ wages reflect the 25th

percentile and 75th percentile of wages, respectively.

True or False

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Entry: Average of bottom third of distribution (Gray Area)

Experienced: Average of top 2 thirds of distribution (Purple Area)

25% 33% 75%

False

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US Census Bureau Coding of Occupations• Roughly 475 detailed occupations

• https://www.census.gov/topics/employment/industry-occupation.html

• https://www.census.gov/topics/employment/industry-occupation/guidance/code-lists.html

• Based on SOC manual

• Most tables from data.census.gov and American FactFinder do not instantly show these codes, per se

• Example B24121- Detailed Occupation by Median Earnings

• Census Marketing and Sales Managers: 0050

• SOC Marketing and Sales Managers: 11-2020

• Marketing Managers 11-2021

• Sales Managers 11-2022

Additional Occupation Codes

Based on the SOC Manual

More detailed

• 8 digits

• More occupations

SOC Code 35-0000 Food Preparation & Serving Related 35-3000 Food & Beverage Serving Workers35-3020 Fast Food & Counter Workers35-3022 Counter Attendants, Cafeteria, Food Concession & Coffee Shop

O*NET Code35-3022.01 Baristas

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O*NET Coding of Occupations

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Different services use different coding

• Army, Marines use Military Occupational Specialties (MOS)

• Air Force uses Air Force Specialty Code

• Navy and Coast Guard use Ratings

Can serve as a Crosswalk to help translate military work into potential civilian occupations

Military Coding of Occupations

Let’s look at Occupational ProjectionsWhat jobs are expected to grow/decline in your area?

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• Made largely by applying Industry Projections through Industry-Occupation Matrix

• Base year numbers will likely not match OES exactly

• Published at overall, occupational family (2-digit), and detailed (6-digit) levels

• Same tool as Industry Projections

Occupational Projections

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Another way to research Occupational

Projections

• Easy to understand rating system

• 1(lowest) to 5(highest) stars

• Links directly to NCWorks Job Postings

• Detailed information available on each rated occupation

What are 5-star jobs in the Elizabeth City Region?• NCcareers.org

• Star Jobs

Let’s look at Occupational OutcomesWhere do graduates with this degree work?How much do graduates with this degree earn?What school’s graduates has the highest wages 5 years after completion?

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Common Follow-Up System

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What is the Common Follow-Up System?

• Longitudinal repository of workforce and education data.

• Maintained by a collaborative effort between:• North Carolina Department of Information Technology’s Government Data

Analytics Center (GDAC)

• Labor and Economic Analysis Division (LEAD) of the North Carolina Department of Commerce

• Contains data on participants in North Carolina public employment, training, and education programs going back to the late 1990s.

• Contains employment and wage information on all individuals working in UI-covered employment in North Carolina over the last 25 years.

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How can we access with this data?

• Through the NC TOWER, which provides data on graduates from NC Community College System and UNC System schools on:• Employment rates

• Wages

• Ongoing higher education enrollment

• Broken out by:• Broad subject areas (2-digit Classification of Instructional Program Code

(CIP)

• Specific subject areas (6-digit CIP Codes)

• Campus

How many people earned an Associate’s Degree from Fayetteville Technical Community College in 2013-2014?

• NCcareers.org• NC TOWER

Limitations of NC Tower

• Only have data from North Carolina• Can’t track someone who left the state for work or school

• Only have data from UNC System and NC Community Colleges

Let’s look at Demographic DataHow many people live in an area?What is the age breakdown?What is the average income?

Demographic and Regional Data Sources

• Population Estimates and Projections: • NC Office of State Budget and Management (OSBM)

• Annual Estimates of Income and Poverty: • Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE)

• MANY other things: • American Community Survey (ACS)

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Population Estimates and Projections (NC Office of Budget and Management)

www.osbm.nc.gov/facts-figures

• County Population Estimates

•Municipal Population Estimates

• County/State Population Projections (to 2038)

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Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates SAIPE

www.census.gov/programs-surveys/saipe.html

•Updated annually

• Provides:• Poverty rates by age• Median Household Income

• SAIPE Interactive Tool

• Since 2005, Premier Household Survey in the United States

• Replaced ‘long form’

• Contacts over 3.5 million households each year

• Annual data- 1-year and 5-year data• 1-Year for geographies 65,000+, 5-Year for all regions

• Usually released in September, December

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American Community Survey ACS

Two sources for data:• American FactFinder• data.census.gov

• Many pre-made tables created by the Census Bureau, but we may want more information.

• Useful Demographic Profile Tables (start with DP–search using “DP*”)

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American Community Survey (ACS)

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data.census.gov

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data.census.gov

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Filters on data.census.gov

Let’s look at Commuting PatternsWhere does the workforce live?Where do residents work?

Two Sources:

NCWorks• Located under Data Trends – Demographics –

Commuting Patterns

Census OnTheMap• Onthemap.ces.census.gov

Where do the employees in Haywood County live?

• Onthemap.ces.census.gov

Tips on Working with data…

• Play around with the different tools, lots of great info to discover.

• When you run into data suppression, remember WTP:• When narrowing the W, widen the P!

• When narrowing the P, widen the W!

• Watch the T!

• Look to Governmental sources of data first.

• Always cite your sources.

Questions?