Linking global megatrends to regional topics

Some reflections on experiences in the joint project

To remember, what we did in the first article 5 project…

• We applied qualitative Modelling• We used the Consideo Modeler/iModeler• We applied different analysis/case studies on

different levels (regionally and complexity).

Qualitative modelling…

• A form of „structural modeling“• Building causal relation with additional information:– Orientation of causality– Strenght of connection– Direction of causality– Delay of impact(steps)

• Bringing together:– CLD, fuzzy cognitive maps

Loops and causalities

Relevant questions / aspects about global megatrends

• What actually IS a global megatrend?• How to find out, how global developments

drive lokal / regional developments?• For any assessment of (mega)trends, a

reference point - be an political objective, or an impact - is needed!

• Do we want to understand (better) the megatrend itself - or assess it‘s possible impacts (direct – indirect)?

What actually is a megatrend?

What did we do in the first study?

Two case studies:1. A more generic approach2. Connecting Swedish

Environmental goals with global megatrends

How do the results look like?

How to link GMT to the system?

- Just a „collector“- a real driver- Part of the system

Regional model (an excerpt)

My recommendations using QM to assess GMTs…

• Define the policy objectives or impact categories (maybe based on indicators)

• Develop the „causal system“ around these objectives/indicators.

• Don‘t stop expanding the model untill you reach global level.

• „collect“ (i.e. attach) the Global megatrends where the subtrends are apparend in the model.

• Evaluate the model just comparing GMTs