Lingkungan Strategis XXI

Strategic Environment

Balance of Power

Force

Deployment

RMA

ARMS Trade

System DisequilibriumSystem Disequilibrium

World War: Hegemonic vs Revisionist State(s)

Differentiation of

Distribution of Power

Differentiation of

Distribution of Power

Imperial Overstretch Limit of Innovation

Unipolar Moment-Concert of PowerUnipolar Moment-Concert of Power

Kemunduruan Hegemoni AS

Kompetisi Strategis AS-China-India

2050: Multipolar

AS

Rusia

Inggris

Perancis

China

India

Australia, Belanda, Italia, Spanyol, Kanada

JepangKorea Selatan

Brazil

WARWAR

CrisisCrisis

Territorial Expansion

CapacityCapacity

Power Rise

IntentionIntention

Pattern of Enmity

Andi Widjajanto

Proportion of GDP

3.5-4%3.5-4% 1-3%1-3% <1%<1%

Military Industrial Complex

AutarkyAutarky Counter DependentCounter Dependent Dependent Dependent

Defense Budget

Arms Build-UpArms Build-Up Arms MaintenanceArms Maintenance Arms ReductionArms Reduction

Military Organization

Revisionist-InnovationRevisionist-Innovation Status Quo-ConservativeStatus Quo-Conservative

Political Ideology

Conservative-HawkishConservative-Hawkish Liberal-DoveLiberal-Dove

Regional Complex

Pattern of EnmityPattern of Enmity Pattern of AmityPattern of Amity

Balance of Power

HegemonicHegemonic Revisionist-BalancingRevisionist-Balancing BandwoganingBandwoganing

Arms RaceArms Race

WAR

Security DilemmaSecurity Dilemma

Arms Build Up

Military ModernizationMilitary Modernization

Offensive Weapon System Provocative Force Deployment

Force to Force RatioForce to Force Ratio

S0 S1 S2 S3 S4 S5

2014 Hegemoni AS Hegemoni China Kompetisi Global AS-China G Zero Pertarungan Regional

Probabilitas 1 Rendah-Sedang Sedang Sedang-Tinggi Rendah Tinggi

Polaritas Sistem

InternasionalUnipolar Unipolar Unipolar Bipolar Multipolar Multipolar

Tingkat Stabilitas

Sistem

Internasional

Tinggi Tinggi Tinggi Tinggi Rendah Sedang

Perimbangan

MiliterCondong ke AS Condong ke AS Condong ke China Condong ke AS

Tanpa

Perimbangan

Perimbangan

Regional

Kebijakan Aliansi Quasi Alliance Integrasi ke AS Tanpa Aliansi Global Aliansi ASTanpa Aliansi

GlobalAliansi Regional

1 KPM 20241 KPM 2024 2 Peace

Deviden

1 Kekuatan Regional 2

KPM 2024 3 Tentara

Teritorial

KPM 2024Tentara

TeritorialKekuatan Regional

Strategi Diplomasi-

Pertahanan

Netral: Dynamic

EquillibrimBandwoganing AS Bandwoganing China Balancing Power Rise Regional Balancing

Doktrin

PertahananDefensif Defensif Defensif Ofensif Ofensif Ofensif

Program Senjata Base Force Base Force Base Force Base Force Moderinization Arms Build Up

Sistem Senjata

UtamaAir-Maritime Patrol

Air Control Maritime

Surveillance

Air Control Maritime

Projection Missile Shield

Air Strike Maritime

Projection

Air Strike

Maritime

Projection

Air Strike Maritime

Projection

Anggaran

Pertahanan Rendah Rendah Rendah Tinggi Sedang-Tinggi Sedang-Tinggi

Dukungan Politik Sedang Tinggi Rendah Sedang Tinggi Sedang

SkenarioK

arakteristik

Trajektori

Tan

ggapan

Strategis

T0 T1

2014 KPM 2024

Probabilitas 1 Tinggi

AD: Tentara Teritorial AD: Mechanical Division

AL: Naval Patrol - Brown

Water Navy

AL: Maritime

Surveillance - Green

Water Navy

AL: Air Patrol AU: Air Control

Terpadu: -Terpadu: Komando

Gabungan

Strategi Diplomasi-

PertahananDynamic Equillibrium Regional Balancing

Kebijakan Aliansi

GlobalNon Aliansi Non Aliansi

Stabilitas Sistem Tinggi Sedang

Konflik Internal Tinggi Sedang

Pertumbuhan

EkonomiSedang-Tinggi (6-7%) Sedang-Tinggi (6-7%)

Anggaran

Pertahanan/PDBRendah (1.2%) Sedang (2.5-3%)

Demokratisasi Inisasi Demokrasi Konsolidasi Demokrasi

Regim Politik Demokratis Demokratis

Karakter Regim Dove Hawk

Hubungan Sipil

MiliterKendali Sipil Lemah Kendali Sipil Obyektif

Profesionalitas

MiliterSedang Tinggi (5)

Industri

PertahananInfant Industri Ceruk

Det

erm

inan

Kar

akte

rist

ikTrajektori

Kapabilitas Militer

Reformasi Militer

Tentara Profesional

Transformasi Pertahanan

KPM 2024

Inovasi Militer

Kekuatan Regional 2045

204520091999 2014 2029

Konsolidasi Demokrasi

Ekonomi Pertahanan

Pertahanan Indonesia 2045

Teknologi Pertahanan

Brown Water Navy

• Fast Patrol Boat

• Light Fregate

Green Water Navy

• Fregate

• Corvette

• Submarines

Blue Water Navy

• Destroyer

• Submarines

2014

2020

2024

2030

1% PDB

1.5% PDB

2.5% PDB

3.5% PDB

PorosMaritim

BudayaMaritim

EkonomiMaritim

InfrastrukturMaritim

DiplomasiMaritim

Pertahanan Maritim

PertahananMaritim

PertahananMaritim

Geo Maritime

Geo Maritime

Naval Arms

Dynamics

Naval Arms

Dynamics

Maritime Security Regime

Maritime Security Regime

PorosMaritim

Dunia

Negara Kepulauan

DeklarasiJuanda

UNCLOS1982

WawasanNusantara

Maritime Projection

Maritime Sphere of Influence

AS

Rusia

Inggris

Perancis

China

India

Australia, Belanda, Italia, Spanyol, Kanada

JepangKorea Selatan

Brazil

2014 KPM 2024KekuatanRegional

2045

HegemoniAS

Hegemoni China

KompetisiAS China

G ZeroPertarungan

Regional