LESSONS LEARNED; CANADA, THE ARCTIC AND SHIPBUILDING

 New Paradigms for Defence and Industrial Policy

School of Policy Studies , Queen University , , February 27 2012

Rob HuebertRhuebert@ucalgary.ca

Centre for Military and Strategic Studies

Canada, the Arctic and Shipbuilding

• Canada will need substantial increases in its arctic capable Fleet

• Canada’s history is problematic

• Canada is examining new means of acquiring ships – Politically lead Process – Rationalization of process

The Problem • The Arctic is a state of massive

transformation – Climate Change– Resource Development – (was up to a high

$140+ barrel of oil- now $98 barrel)– Geopolitical Transformation/Globalization

• How do we understand what is happening?

• What is the role Canada in this new Arctic security regime?

Oil and GasOil and Gas: Resources of the North

Source: AMAP

New Technologies: Proposed Arctic LNG

Source: Samsung

Heavy Industries

Uncertain Maritime jurisdiction & boundaries in the Arctic

www.dur.ac.uk/ibru/resources/arctic

New Geopolitics of the North• Russia

– Renewed Assertiveness– Petrodollars/but growing economic shorfalls

• United States– Multi-lateral reluctance/emerging concern to act– International Role as remaining Superpower– Developing Economic instability

• Norway– Refocus on North– Growing Interest (Concern?) with Russia

• Denmark– Issues with Greenland – social; energy– New Naval capabilities

• Iceland– Economic melt-down– Growing relationship with China

• Finland/Sweden– NATO – Loyal Arrow

• Canada– Re-examining its Arctic capabilities– Renewed Assertiveness

RussiaRenewed Russian Strengths

• 1990’s Period of Reduction– AMEC/G-8 assistance in Sub Decommissioning

• 2000’s Renewal • 6 SSBN 995 Borey

– 1 built; 3 building

• 6 SSN 885 Yasen/Graney– 1 built; 2 building

• Payment Challenges• Build 6 subs and 1 carrier a year 2013

-Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin

Yury Dolgoruky

United StatesUS Arctic Forces

• Submarine Forces:• US – Seawolf and Los Angles Class; Virginia Class

• Cooperation with UK

• ICEX March 2009 – 2 LA class SSN

• ICEX March 2011 – 1 Seawolf and 1 Virgina

- Missile Development

Missile Defence – Ft. Greely

USS Honolulu 2003 HMS Tireless 2007 after accident

New Norwegian Frigates

• Fridtjof Nansen class

• 5 built in Spanish Yards

• Aegis system

Roald Amundsen and Admiral Kuznetsov 2008

Source: RNoAF

Svalbard- Norwegian Coast Guard

Source: Canadian American Strategic Review

Danish Vessels

Thesis class

Flyvefisken class

Swedish/Baltic Response to French Sales to Russia

• Nordic-Baltic Summit Jan 2011 – UK, Norway, Sweden, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania plus Finland, Sweden

• Swedish FM - Submarines

Mistral

China

New Chinese Icebreaker

-1st Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 1999

-2nd Arctic Voyage: July-Sept 2003

-3rd Arctic Voyage Summer 2008

•Was not detected by Canada until arriving in Tuk

•Polar Research Institute of China

South Korea

1st Arctic Shuttle Tanker

Source: Samsung Heavy Industries

The History

• The voyage of the Polar Sea and its aftermath

• Clark’s 6 point arctic policy – Construction of polar 8 icebreaker– Construction of 10 to 12 Nuclear powered

submarines

Failure of 1986 Policy

• Polar 8 Icebreaker– Politicalization of process

– Provincial Shipyards Battle

– Lack of political support

– Impact of deficit/debt

• Nuclear Powered Submarines – End of Cold War

– Confusion over purpose

– Impact of deficit /debts

What is Canada now doing?

• New Military Operations since 2002• 6-8 Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessels• Nanisivik Refueling Facility• Northern Watch• Feb 2008 Budget – $720 Million Icebreaker • Mandatory Reporting of Ship Traffic – Nordreg • Canada Shipbuilding Policy Oct 2011

Canadian Navy in Northern WatersPost 2002

Resolute Bay

Base Location

Iqaluit

Ft. Greely

St. John’s

Arctic Offshore Patrol Vessel

Be capable of operations in Canada’s three oceans

Be first year ice capable in the Arctic

Contribute to maritime domn awareness

Support other departments, agencies and ocean research

Have a gun armament for constabulary missions

15

General Arrangements – Upper Deck

Source: Canadian Navy

Diefenbaker

New Developments

• Shipbuilding Policy – Rational non-political Process– Long term durability

• Politically led Capital Project – AOPV– Decision was from Political Elites– Did Navy want the vessel?

• American Arctic Requirements – Good cooperation since 1986– American need for icebreakers

Conclusion

• Geopolitics Concerns reduced immediately after end of Cold War

• New concerns are arising as Arctic is perceived/becoming more accessible

• Issues will be Maritime/Aerospace• Issues will be understanding entry of new actors to

the region • Canada will need substantial maritime assets• Current plan is promising