Lecture 13: The Lecture 13: The Crisis-prone 60s Crisis-prone 60s

and 70sand 70sFebruary 4, 2009February 4, 2009

Extra Credit Extra Credit Opportunity!!!Opportunity!!!

Read the paper “What is to be Read the paper “What is to be Done?” through course website link Done?” through course website link “extra credit assignment”“extra credit assignment”

Come to lecture on Monday 2/9Come to lecture on Monday 2/9 Write a one-page (double-spaced) Write a one-page (double-spaced)

thoughtful response paperthoughtful response paper Turn it in to your TA by 2/19Turn it in to your TA by 2/19

Results of InterventionsResults of Interventions

"When two elephants fight, it is only the "When two elephants fight, it is only the grass which gets hurt" grass which gets hurt"

Not easy to control internal politicsNot easy to control internal politics Exacerbated civil warsExacerbated civil wars Vietnam and Korea debaclesVietnam and Korea debacles End of superpower patronage End of superpower patronage end of end of

wars & new warswars & new wars In 3In 3rdrd world, stalemate world, stalemate Unintended consequencesUnintended consequences

DetenteDetente

Relaxation of tensionsRelaxation of tensions Cuban Missile CrisisCuban Missile Crisis “hotline” “hotline”

Arms reduction treatiesArms reduction treaties Political and human rights Political and human rights

agreementsagreements Helsinki Accords (1975)Helsinki Accords (1975)

Domestic CrisisDomestic Crisis

The Vietnam DebateThe Vietnam Debate

ProPro Just war fought against North Just war fought against North

Vietnamese/Soviet aggressionVietnamese/Soviet aggression US lost because of civilian meddling, US lost because of civilian meddling,

public opinionpublic opinion Warned of “Vietnam Syndrome”Warned of “Vietnam Syndrome”

ConCon War unnecessary, no threat to US securityWar unnecessary, no threat to US security War unwinnable, no military solutionWar unwinnable, no military solution

Monetary CrisisMonetary Crisis US spending on war, domestic programsUS spending on war, domestic programs

inflation, dollar overvaluedinflation, dollar overvalued Strong dollarStrong dollar US imported more than it US imported more than it

exported exported deficits deficits What to do? (1) reduce spending, (2) raise What to do? (1) reduce spending, (2) raise

interest rates, or (3) devalue dollarinterest rates, or (3) devalue dollar De facto devaluation 1971De facto devaluation 1971 Nixon took dollar off gold 1973Nixon took dollar off gold 1973

Undermined confidence in US leadershipUndermined confidence in US leadership Led to international instability in exchange rates Led to international instability in exchange rates Governments had no incentive to implement austerity—Governments had no incentive to implement austerity—

inflation inflation

Oil CrisisOil Crisis

Arab-Israeli 1973 WarArab-Israeli 1973 War

Oil CrisisOil Crisis

Arab-Israeli 1973 WarArab-Israeli 1973 War Organization of Petroleum Exporting Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries raised price of oilCountries raised price of oil

rationing in US rationing in US

worldwide inflation an recessionworldwide inflation an recession

boom in oil-producing countriesboom in oil-producing countries

Oil CrisisOil Crisis

Iranian RevolutionIranian Revolution

Hostage CrisisHostage Crisis

•http://youtube.com/watch?v=GOBxcXpD4Co•http://youtube.com/watch?v=u_ATtiaPOxA

Soviet “Advances” in 3Soviet “Advances” in 3rdrd World World

Communist successes in Vietnam, Communist successes in Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, Angola, Cambodia, Laos, Angola, Mozambique, Ethiopia, South Mozambique, Ethiopia, South Yemen, Grenada, Nicaragua Yemen, Grenada, Nicaragua

US decline in international prestigeUS decline in international prestige Soviet invasion of AfghanistanSoviet invasion of Afghanistan

Afghanistan: The “Soviet Afghanistan: The “Soviet Vietnam”Vietnam”

Soviet Invasion of Soviet Invasion of AfghanistanAfghanistan

US ResponseUS Response Alarm: Prestige concernsAlarm: Prestige concerns Alarm: geostrategic concernsAlarm: geostrategic concerns Opportunism: “make the Soviets bleed”Opportunism: “make the Soviets bleed”

Implications of Invasion and WithdrawalImplications of Invasion and Withdrawal Mass casualtiesMass casualties Soviets demoralized Soviets demoralized

reassessment of foreign policyreassessment of foreign policy Carter weakened politicallyCarter weakened politically WithdrawalWithdrawal civil war, Taliban civil war, Taliban Transnational Islamist networks Transnational Islamist networks al Qaeda al Qaeda