Lect 16 - 27 Oct

7/23/2019 Lect 16 - 27 Oct

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/lect-16-27-oct 1/46

HHHorst Rademacher

Lect 15: EQ

Forecasting

Fall Semester

2015

27 Oct 15

7/23/2019 Lect 16 - 27 Oct


Class organization Extra Credit

Choose any topic related toEarthquakes and Seismology

Be Creative

It doesn’t have to be a written report

Add background stories, personal experiences,reflect on the issues

7/23/2019 Lect 16 - 27 Oct


Class organization Extra Credit

Seismicity reports:Cut and paste from

USGS and news websites

is not enough

cite all relevant sources

add your name and GSI on front page

7/23/2019 Lect 16 - 27 Oct


HHAnyquestions?

7/23/2019 Lect 16 - 27 Oct


Seismicity Report Areas with the

largest Seismic Hazards

Hindukush AfghanistanTajikistan

Kyrgyzstan

M=7.5

26 Oct 1509:09:33 UTC

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Felt from Tashkent

to Kolkata = 1700 mi

Seismicity Report Hindukush, M=7.5

26 Oct 15

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215 kmdeep

Seismicity Report

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Seismicity Report Hindukush, M=7.5

26 Oct 15, 215 km deep

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Seismicity Report Hindukush, M=7.5, 26 Oct 1

Recorded in Orinda

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Seismicity Report

Low pass filter

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Seismicity Report

High pass filter

Whatis this?

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Seismicity Report San Ramon, M=2.6,riding on the Hindukush waves

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Seismicity Report Two EQ superimposed

in one recording

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HHAnyquestions?

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Definition of EQ prediction:

To be useful , we have to pinpoint:

When

Where

How strong

These are scientifically

very stringent and challenging requirements

Recap from last lecture I:

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Why are we failing?

We need to have at least one

measureable precursor , whichconsistently occurs before each EQ

- Foreshocks, Seismic swarms- Change in velocity of seismic waves- Ground uplift- Radon Gas- Electrical conductivity- Animal behavior

Recap from last lecture II:

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Animal behavior

Circled number isthe number of

reported incidents

Recap from last lecture III:

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and then you wait………..

EQ Prediction was a failure!

28 Sep 2004

….but noprecursers

Recap from last lecture IV:

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HHAnyquestions?

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If EQ prediction is a failure,what can we do?

Prediction vs. Forecasting

Let’s lookelsewhere?

l d

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We can precisely predictthe phases of the moon


Wi hi f

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Within a few cm, we canprecisely predict the tides


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Falling objects in agravity field

G is the gravitational constant

6.674×10−11 N · (m/kg)2

Sir Isaac Newton, 1642-1726


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_constant

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravitational_constant

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If we know the laws that govern a process,we can predict the outcome

This applies to all natural sciences:Physics, biology, chemistry, Earth science

So: Why can’t we predict EQ?

We don’t know all the laws

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Las Vegas gambling? very poor

Elections? in dictatorships: very goodin democracies: poor

Prediction

Stock Market? poor

How successful ispredictionelsewhere?

How long will a marriage last? poor

What about sports?

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Prediction

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Prediction

What about the weather?

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Not weather predictionbut weather forecast


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Prediction Coin toss

Heads or Tails?

C i t

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PredictionCoin toss

Gaussian or Normal Distribution

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If we know the laws that govern a process,we can predict the outcome

Prediction: Certainty

If we don’t know these laws,we can only forecast the outcome

Forecasting: ProbabilityOddsChances

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HHAnyquestions?

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Forecast Difference:prediction vs. forecast

Prediction:

To be useful, we have

to exactly pinpoint:

WhereWhenHow strong

No false alarms

No missed EQ

Forecast:

Probabilistic

assessment of EQoccurance

Time window,Only estimate oflocation andmagnitude

Thi d

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Reading:USGS fact Sheet 2015-3009 (2015)

A New Earthquake Forecast forCalifornia’s Complex Fault System

An update to:USGS fact Sheet 039-03 (2003)Understanding Earthquake Hazards in the SanFrancisco Bay Region

ForecastThis we can do…

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Statewide:

99% chance of M ≥ 6.7

San Francisco region:


Los Angeles region:


Forecast

www.wgcep.org/ucerf3

P t EQ id d

http://www.wgcep.org/ucerf3

http://www.wgcep.org/ucerf3

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ForecastPast EQ considered

in UCERF-3

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Forecast

Whi h f lt d ?

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ForecastWhich faults are ready?

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Forecast

San Francisco

vs.Los Angeles

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Forecast

Probability

for each faultin the Bay area

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HHAnyquestions?

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Thursday:

Guest Lecture:Prof. Charles Scawthorn, Kyoto, PEER:

Aftermaths of strong EQ

Homework #2

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X

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HHAnyquestions?

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Documents

Lect 16 - 27 Oct