Leader-Follower Studies in PMFserv: A Performance Moderator Function (PMF) Unification Architecture Barry G. Silverman, PhD Roy Eidelson, PhD, Tony Smith,

Leader-Follower Studies in PMFserv: A Performance Moderator Function (PMF)

Unification Architecture

Barry G. Silverman, PhDRoy Eidelson, PhD, Tony Smith, PhD

Evan Sandhaus, Gnana Bharathy, Benjamin NyeElectrical & Systems Engineering Dept.

Inst. For Research in Cognitive Science (IRCS)Center for Human Modeling & Simulation

University of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphia, PA [email protected]

© Barry G Silverman, 2005

mailto:[email protected]

Outline• AFOSR Simulation Dashboard Project

– Leader-Follower Dynamics/What-Ifs

• PMFserv Model of Human Behavior• Case Studies

– LeaderSim and Athena’s Prism– Iraqi Insurgents & Crowds– Intifadah (Suicide – mission awry)– Somalia (Black Hawk Looters/Crowds)– SE Asia – (Tipping to Insurgency)

• Lessons Learned

© Barry G. Silverman, 2006

Editable* Archetype Group Roles, Assets, Strategies

Leader(s)

Loyal Followers

‘Rival’ Leaders

Fringe Followers

Prospective Followers

(and their “leaders”)

Enemy’s Fringe Fs

Enemy Loyal Fs

Enemy Leader(s)

Real* & PerceivedAssets/Resources•Goods•Law/Mil•Popular Support



A: e.g., theocrat*

B: eg, secular*

C: eg, fundamentalist*Group Values*: Secular Theocrat Fundamental Autocrat Anarchy

Grand Strategy Category*

SPIN - Get (buy) support for/againstgroup and action

FORM PACT with another group to become more powerful (more of each tank) against C•Contract TermsMilitaristic Attack on C, spoils to A, Brag

Economic War on C, spoils to A, Brag

Improve Life for A, Brag

Improve Life for B, Brag

Defend Economically:Protect/Secure/Defend, Whine About C

Defend MilitarilyProtect/Secure/Defend, Whine About C

SubTasks/Missions*

RecruitPay (ongoing

NegotiateOfferHaggleAbideViolate

Build, Recon,Move, Attack, Assassinate, ..Block GoodsTake JobsDeny Infrastr

Ban Trade,Boycott, Limit Jobs-InGroup

Fortfy border,Patrol, Intel,No Privacy

Give Goods

Provide Jobs

Build Infrastr

Leader Type*: Elected Tribal Dictator Religious

Greivan

ceM

emb

ership

Greivan

ceM

emb

ership

Greivan

ceM

emb

ership

Sp

eech

Act

sP

hys

ical

/Po

liti

cal

Act

s

PMFserv’s Unified Architecture for Cognition(Breaking Stovepipes Between Sub-Fields)

Stimuli

Biology Module/Stress

Personality,Culture,Emotion

Memory

Cognitive

Response

be free

help others

support terrorist

hide terrorist distract guards

crowd together block guards vision

be independent

sacrifice life

protect terrorist

survive

run for cover

protect children

TBR = E [ P U(st, at) ]

t=1+

-

Perception Module Expression

Social Module,Relations,Trust

www.seas.upenn,edu/~barryg/HBMR © Barry G. Silverman, 2006

Stimuli

Biology/Stress

Personality, Culture , Affect

PMFserv

Decisionmaking

Response

Social Module

Expression

Simulated World

Physiolo-gy Tanks

•sleep•nutrition

•injury

ConflictTheory(Janis-

Mann)

mainstressortanks

Inte-grated Stress

Energy Tank

Status

CopingStyle

NegativeEmotions(event stress)

TimePressure

fatigue event time

PhysiologyUpdates Coping Style

GibsonAffordance

LEGEND: Implements Interprets NewLiterature Literature PMF

Validated Profiling Instrument Available(Hermann, Eidelson, Hofstede/House, NfC)

Perception

ValueTrees(GSP, Bayes)

Subj.Utility

(Damasio)

Cog.App.(OCC)

GSPNodeFail/Succeed

Emotions(11 pairs)

Action Choices Afforded

Current World State:GSP Leaf NodeAffordance Updates

AlternateDecisionTheories

IntentionManagement

NestedIntent-ionalityProc’g

Relationship Tanks•Alignment

•Credibility/Trust•Objectification

•Valence

iStress

Identity Repertoires•Demography•SocialGroup

•Role

Observations about Other Agents

Updates

Relationship ParameterLevels

Action Choice (physical, speech)

Emotions(11 pairs)

Candidate Action

Relationship ParameterLevels

BR EV

Memory

SJTproximal

SJTdistal

SJ

Tc

en

tral

DT

Heur

Game

Prosp

SEU

ELMSEU

BR -- Best ResponseCCT – Cognitive Continuum Theory(Hammond)DT – Decision Theory (Keeney, Raiffa)ELM – Elaboration Likelihood Model (Petty)EV -- Expected ValueGame-Game Theory (von Neumann, Nash)

GSP – Goals, Standards, PreferencesHeur – Heuristics, Rules, Biases (Simon, Klein, Slovic)OCC – Ortony, Clore, Collins Prosp –Prospect Theory(Kahneman & Tversky)SEU – Subjective Expected Utility(Edwards, Wright)SJT – Social Judgement Theory(Brunswik, Hammond)

CCT

11 pairs of emotionsinternally-derived utilityU = I(sk)/11

GSP Trees (Bayesian-weighted)•Preferences - longer term hopes•Standards - means acceptable in self and others•Goals - short term needs and actions to reach Prefs

PMFserv Incorporates Personality, Cultural Values, Utility(common math framework – subjective expected utility)

Grow Assets

Authority

Military

Economy

People

Protect Assets (Reduce

Vulnerability)

Authority

Military

Economy

People

Goals

Extremists

Extremists

Standards

Exercise of Power

Scope of Doing Good

Treatment of Out Groups (In-Group

Bias)

Military Doctrine

Out-Groups are Legitimate Targets

Be Controlling/ Closed

Use Asymmetric Attacks

Use Conventional Attacks

Task Relationship Balance

Treat with Fairness and Justice

Be Open, Secular

Bring about Greater Good (be a Martyr, usually for ones Group)

Look after Narrower Interests

Be Relationship Focused

Be Task Focused

Honesty

Keep ones word

Use Duplicity

Humanitarian (Sensitivity to Life)

Respect Life (Life is Sensitive)

Objectify Life: Life is Cheap (None are Sensitive)

Shun Violence

Preferences

Desirable Future

For Everyone

For the Self

For the Group

People

Enemy Faction

Other Groups

Friendly Faction

Places n Things

Spritualistic

Symbolic/ Ritualistic

Materialistic

Own People

GSP Trees – Leader

Hermann TRAIT

1.belief in control

2. need for power

3. conc. complex

4. self-confidence

5. task vs. relations

6. distrust

7. In-group bias


Preferences

Desirable Future

For Everyone

For the Self

For the Group

People

Enemy Faction

Other Groups

Friendly Faction

Places n Things

Spritualistic

Symbolic/ Ritualistic

Materialistic

Own People

Standards

Cultural Openness

Scope of Doing Good

Treatment of Out Groups

Out-Groups are Legitimate Targets

Be Closed/ Controlling

Task Relationship Balance

Treat with Fairness and Justice

Be Open, Secular

Bring about Greater Good (be a Martyr, usually for ones Group)

[Collectivism]

Look after Narrower Interests (Individualism)

Be Relationship Focused

Be Task Focused

Honesty

Keep ones word

Use Duplicity

Humanitarian (Sensitivity to Life)

Respect Life (Life is Sensitive)

Objectify Life: Life is Cheap (None are Sensitive)

Conformity & Assertiveness

Conform to Society

Assert Individuality

Respect Authority & Law

Goals

Physiology

Safety

Belonging

Esteem

GSP Trees – Villager

Personal Core Beliefs(Worldview)•Vulnerability•Injustice•Distrust•Superiority•Helplessness

Eidelson’s Model – Belief Inventory & Sample Behaviors

Each Agent’sGSP Trees

Affordances:Succeed/Fail

• Vulnerability. Preemptive strikes, panic, disorganization, shorter time horizon in decision-making, less complex thinking, consideration of fewer alternatives, flight, surrender.

• Injustice. Stronger commitment, greater cohesion, closer connection to local community, martyrs for the cause, attacks on institutional targets, remedy-focused behaviors designed to achieve solution to perceived injustice.

• Distrust. Greater secrecy, decentralized modes of organization and communication, restricted sharing of information, unwillingness to negotiate, tendency to misinterpret cues or intentions of others.

• Superiority. Greater violence, “dehumanization” of adversaries, avoidance those considered “inferior,” authoritarian demands for conformity and obedience, disregard for international norms of conduct.

• Helplessness. Abandoning efforts to resist or oppose, demobilization and surrender, last gasp “we have nothing to lose” actions such as sacrificing one's own and other's lives.

Individual-Group Belief Inventory (IGBI) measures these five dangerous ideas in group members


Many Parameters (i) in PMFserv• Physiology/Biology

– Nourishment– Muscle Energy– Injury Levels– Sleep Need– Adrenaline– Others (open to user)

• Stress/Coping Style– Time Pressure– Event Stress– Effective Fatigue– Decision Style (5 levels)

• Adherence• Vigilance• Panic

• Emotions (11 pairs)– Joy/Despair, Fear/Hope, etc.

• GSP Value Trees (10E2 nodes)– Long Term Preferences (by Resource

and Territory)– Standards (Norms, Doctrine)– Short Term Goals (Maslow-type)

• Relationship Parameters– Alignment Level (Ally-Foe, 5 levels)– Group Affiliation (6-10 groups)– Valence/CognUnit/Agent-Object– Trust (by Resource and Player)

• Decision Parameters– Utility and Cost (continuous)– Action Choices (10s to 100s)– Discount Factors (risk-prone/averse)– World State

• Perception & Modeling of Others– N*(GSPs+Relations+Actions)


Gallery of Some Past PMFserv Agent StudiesAsymmetric Plots (Culture/Emotions) Recreate Black Hawk Down: Four

types of Somalians Women/Kids, Civilian Males,

Militia, Clan Leaders Intifadah dynamics – cell leader,

suicide-bomber, Mayor, populace reactions

Grade B Movie - Al Qaeda & Iraqi Insurgency, SE Asia, Elsewhere

Crowd Behavior Emergence (Bio-Affect-Values-Panic-Riot)•WTO Talks in Seattle -- Protesting/rioting crowds: Males (employed/unempl.), females, instigators•Rioting/looting crowds at police station (impact of chanting upon crowd behavior)•Soccer Hooligans (Manchester United Supporters)•Scale up to 2000 agents in Sony OpenSteer

Political Agents for RPGs •Nested intentionality, speech acts, reputation management•World leaders in diplomatic strategy role playing game•Third Crusade Leaders (Saladin, Emir, Richard, Philip, etc.)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161

Turn

Res

ourc

es

Blue Yellow Red

Scope of LeaderSim

ScaleUpTerritories (10)Resources (10)Actions (70)Total (10x10x70xpayment levels)

x no. of pliesx N leaders (10)

PrototypeTerritories (3)Resources (3)Actions (5)Total (3x3x5xpayment levels)

x no. of pliesx N leaders (3)

References www.seas.upenn.edu/~barryg/HBMR.html

•.Silverman, BG, Rees, R., Toth, J, et al., (2005, Jan).“Athena’s Prism – A Diplomatic Strategy Role Playing Game for Generating Ideas and Exploring Alternatives”, 1st Internat’l Conf on Intel Anal

•Silverman, B.G., Johns, M., Bharathy, G. (2004, August). “Agent-Based Simulation of Leaders.” ACASA/UPenn, Tech Report.

•Silverman, B.G., Johns, M., et al. (2002, May). “Constructing Virtual Asymmetric Opponents from Data and Models in the Literature." 11th BRIMS, SISO.


http://www.seas.upenn.edu/~barryg/HBMR.html

Agents Form Beliefs about the GSP Trees of other Agents(Static Model: ‘Mirroring and Stereotyping)


Prototype LeaderSim Results

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161

Turn Blue Yellow Red

Nash Equilib: 2 winners in conflictual world

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121

Turn

Res

ourc

es

Blue Yellow Red

Rare 3 in endgame. Yellow specialized away from Red and Blue.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161

Turn

Re

so

urc

es

Blue Yellow Red

Using threats, Yellow turns Red and Blue against one another

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161

Turn

Re

so

urc

es

Blue Yellow Red

Y’s power is curtailed early. Y then uses treaties to negotiate peace.

00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9

1

13 25 37 49 61 73 85 97

109

121

133

145

157

169

Turn

Pre

fere

nce

Ach

ieve

men

t

Blue Yellow Red

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

Turn

Pow

er

Blue Yellow Red

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

Turn

Util

ity

Blue Yellow Red

Utility vs. Time

Preference Achievement vs. Time

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Turn Yellow Blue

Power vs. Time

Impression Error vs. Time

© Barry G Silverman, 2005

Athena’s Prism strategic role playing game•Useful to rapidly mockup conflict scenarios and test what-ifs •PMFserv can simulate world leaders if not enough humans

BigWig(late ’06)

Iraqi Crowd Demonstration Scenario:PMFserv drives Crowds in BigWorld©

Squadleader

Crowd

Agitator

Communityleader

Partners:DARPA, DSOBBNTotal Immersion © Barry G. Silverman, 2006

Demonstration• Exercise 2 paths through

the scenario– Naïve participant– Experienced participant

• Interact with 2 crowd variations– Moderate crowd– Extreme crowd

• Observations– Crowd animations– PE internal states

• Focus on time-critical decision making

Moderate crowd

Extreme crowd

Naïve player

Hostile

Suspicious

Violent

Misled

Experienced player

Trusting

Satisfied

Hostile

Suspicious

Sample outcomes (crowd states)


Follower Got Most UtilityFrom Killing Himself and

Civilians at Bank

Checkpoint

Terroristagent

Sporting Event

City Hall

BankMilitaryFacility

Church

Partners: DMSO, GM© Barry G. Silverman, 2006

Leader Wanted Bankto be Robbed

Checkpoint

Terroristagent

Sporting Event

City Hall

BankMilitaryFacility

Church


Civilian Crowd(PMFserv)

Civilian Chopper Looters(PMFserv)

HelicopterCrash Site

Militiaman with Female Shields(PMFserv)

SuicideBomber(PMFserv)

Militia Unit W/ Leader(AI Implant)

Start

Militiaman with Female Shields(PMFserv)

SuicideBomber(PMFserv)

SOMALIA

Partners:DMSOONRICTSoar

PMFserv drives all crowds at Mike Durant’s Crashed Helicopter inBakara Market, Somalia

•Observers•Women•Looters•Militia•Suicidists


PMFserv Ramp Up Testing

Leader(s)

Loyal Followers

‘Rival’ Leaders

Fringe Followers

Prospective Followers

(and their “leaders”)

Enemy’s Fringe Fs

Enemy Loyal Fs

Enemy Leader(s)

C: eg, fundamentalist*Group Values*: Secular Theocrat Fundamental Autocrat Anarchy

A: Budhist/TRT Party*

B: Muslim*

Leader Type*: Elected Tribal Dictator Religious




Greivan

ceM

emb

ership

Greivan

ceM

emb

ership

Greivan

ceM

emb

ership

© Barry G. Silverman, 2006Partner: LM/ATL

Patani Moderates•Sultan•Parents (Villagers)•Unempl College Grad

TRT Leader Model Tahksin Shinawatra Prime MinisterBudhist Majority

Bersatu or BRN Insurgents:•Leader Model•Follower GSPs•Jemaah Islamiyah

Level of Conflict in the CountryT wrt Time(Initial Separation of Training & Test Sets)

-10

0

10

20

30

40

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Time (Days)

Violen

ce Le

vel

Level of Violence-Training Data Level of Violence-Test Data Poly. (Level of Violence-Training Data)

Poly. (Level of Violence-Test Data) Poly. (Level of Violence-Test Data)

Evidence of Escalation of ViolenceTransformation of society: people occupying higher grievance states increases.

Tsunami (relief forces)

Grievance State Occupancy Vs Time

-0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Time (Weeks)

Occ

up

ancy

of

Gri

evan

ce S

tate

[F

ract

ion

]

Mean Occupancy for GS0 Mean Occupancy for GS1

Mean Occupancy for GS2 Mean Occupancy for GS3

Mean Occupancy for GS4

Training Data Set

Actual Event Data Simulated Villager Feelings


Snapshots of Key Simulation Events

• In the beginning, … the villagers do not have significant reaction to the Country Leader.

• The leader initiates an overt reaction of discrimination as it happened in early 2004.

• Conservative villagers disagree, while radicals oppose the moves.


Variation of Tension wrt Brutality of the Leader

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Time (Weeks)

Tens

ion

Baseline Brutal Good

Sensitivity Analyses of Follower Outcomes vs.+/- 15% mean Leader Personality Standard

AFOSR Simulation Dashboard Status• Find principled way to explore the simulation space

– White Paper on possibilities for conflict, non-conflict

• Understand how model parameters (i) influence outcomes – Manually Testing – Ho: P(Conflict | i ) > Threshold OR < Limit– Parameter elasticities (e.g., regression estimators)

• Create wizard for Policy Analysts (dashboard)– XML-RPC interface to Monte Carlo shareware– Adding a module for design of experiments with PMFserv’s

leader and follower parameters

Monte Carlo Integration & InterfacePM

FSe

rv

Publishing ClientReceives Output from PMFServ

Publish Results

Subscribable Input Server for PMFServFor (param, val) in InputStream:

setProperty()

Execute PMFServModel

Loads Tokens

Interrupt Runs

SWIG

Int

erfa

ce

Pre-Processor ModuleGenerates Input Stream

Executor Module•Starts external PMFServ

•Sends InputStream

•Receives OutputStream

•Halts PMFServ

•Sends Token for Loading Intermediate Results (Sequential Sampling)

Post-Processor Module

Parameter Experiments Input Interface (XL)

•ParamName, CentralValue, StdDevn, Distribution

•DOE Specification

•Inspection, Tracing Flows in the Model, Back-Chaining (large parameter set to be reduced) – as done in villager

•Statistical screening or direct experiment using Latin Hypercube, Morris Random Walk, etc.

Model Output Interface (XL)

SIMLAB 2.2

UI

Integration Layer (Publish & Subscribe )

Design of ExperimentsDashboard

Summary• LeaderSim – Rapidly mockup realworld scenarios and

play out how policies & action choices lead to alternative effects and ways to influence leaders

• Human Behavior (PMFserv) – Compose leaders and followers. Open the agenda to research on parameters across many human behavior disciplines (biology/stress, values/personality/emotion, culture/groups, trust/reputation, decisions/gaming)

• Sensitivity Studies – Find principled ways to explore the space of possible outcomes, to avoid conflict states, and to understand the elasticities of behavior parameters as interventions are attempted

Documents

Leader-Follower Studies in PMFserv: A Performance Moderator Function (PMF) Unification Architecture Barry G. Silverman, PhD Roy Eidelson, PhD, Tony Smith,