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strategictransportation
& tourismsolutions
LCCs vs. Legacies: Converging Business Models
Halifax, Nova ScotiaOctober 18, 2007
Mark HanekeVice President, Network & Strategic PlanningVancouver, BC
2
Presentation Outline
• What is a Low Cost Carrier?• LCC Traffic Trends• Network & Alliance Implications• Fleet issues• Inflight Service• Conclusions
3
What is a Low Cost Carrier?
• An airline that offers low fares by eliminating traditional passenger services
• Southwest Airlines is the Godfather of the LCC movement (36 years old)
• LCCs generally operate with a lower operating cost structure vis-à-vis the competition
• Airlines have historically competed on Price and Product
4
Historically Common LCC Attributes
• Single-class aircraft• Single aircraft fleet type• Simplified airfare structure• Open seating• Flying to cheaper, less-congested secondary
airports• Minimal ground time (quick-turns)• Point-to-point flying• Direct ticket sales
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Presentation Outline
• What is a Low Cost Carrier?• LCC Traffic Trends• Network & Alliance Implications• Fleet issues• Inflight Service• Conclusions
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LCC Traffic Distribution Has Grown
2000 2006
Source: DOT Form 41
RPMs (Billions) = 147.0RPMs (Billions) = 92.7
Legacy91%
LCC9% LCC
21%
Legacy79%
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“Hot Spots” – The Battlegrounds
JFKEWR
CLT
ATL
MDW
DFW/DAL
DEN
PHX
IAD
F9/UA/WN
AA/WN
FL/WN
US/WN
PHL
DL/FL
B6/UA/WN
B6/FL/US
US/WN
B6/DL
B6/CO
BOSB6/FL
LAX
AA/DL/UA
UA/VX/WN
SFO
YYZ
YYCYVR AC/WS AC/
WSAC/WS
MCO
FL/WN
FLL
FL/NK/ WN
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Traffic Trends
• LCC airlines now carry in excess of 30% of domestic traffic in the U.S.
• Westjet has 35% of the Canadian market, and aims to capture 50% marketshare by 2013
• Mexican LCCs account for 32% of all domestic ASKs (May 2007)
• LCCs accounted for 30% of intra-European seat capacity in 2006
• LCC penetration is increasing in key growth markets in Southeastern Asia and India
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Presentation Outline
• What is a Low Cost Carrier?• LCC Traffic Trends• Network & Alliance Implications• Fleet issues• Inflight Service• Conclusions
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1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
North Atlantic Market Concentration
Source: U.S. DOT T-100
Alliance / Non-Allied Shares (%) W
eekl
y Se
ats
(000
)
Non-Allied Alliance
2002 2004200120001998 1999 2003
62/3869/31
80/20
76/24 75/2582/18
82/18
2005 2006
85/1586/14
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North Atlantic Structure
* Based on Flights per WeekNote: SkyTeam includes CO, DL, NW, AF, AZ, KL, OKSource: August 2007 Planet OAG
U.S. - Europe
U.S. - UK
U.S. - Heathrow
17.3%
6.9%
13.3%
37.9%
26.7%
0.0%
30.9%
39.7%
42.7%
oneworld Star SkyTeam Other
August 2007Frequency Shares*
13.8%
26.7%
44.0%
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Major LCC Carriers Around the World
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Star Alliance
X
Network & Alliance Implications
14
oneworld
x
Network & Alliance Implications
15
SkyTeam
Network & Alliance Implications
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Network & Alliance Implications
• Some LCC carriers, such as Virgin Blue (Australia) are open to joining an alliance
• Aer Lingus shunned its oneworldmembership in favor of pursuing an LCC strategy
• LCC carriers could join global alliances in select, key geographic regions, or they could band together to form their own global LCC alliance
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Presentation Outline
• What is a Low Cost Carrier?• LCC Traffic Trends• Network & Alliance Implications• Fleet issues• Inflight Service• Conclusions
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U.S. Jet Fleet at 12/31/06
9 LargestLNC 3278 79%
6 LCC's 84821%
Source: The Airline Monitor
Major & LCC Fleet
LCCFleet
Southwest48157%
Other36743%
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Aircraft Deliveries – Narrow Body
Note: Legacy carriers include AS, AA, CO, DL, NW, UA, USLCCs comprise FL, HP, TZ, F9, B6, WN, NK
Source: Airline Monitor, June 2005
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 2006 2007 2008
Legacy LCCs
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Fleet Issues
• Frontier and jetBlue have expanded their fleets to include two aircraft types
• Several U.S. LCCs have slowed their fleet expansion plans
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Presentation Outline
• What is a Low Cost Carrier?• LCC Traffic Trends• Network & Alliance Implications• Fleet issues• Inflight Service• Conclusions
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LCC Service Comparison Chart
AirAsia easyJet JetBlue Frontier Ryanair Southwest WestJet Legacy
Frequent Flyer Plan
Standard Checked Luggage Allowance
Free Beverage and Snacks
Assigned Seating
Paid Lounge Access
Free Inflight Entertainment
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LCC Attribute Scale
“Pure” LCC Attributes
Legacy Attributes
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Which is the LCC Menu?
• Some Buy-Onboard offerings are nearly identical
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Long-haul LCC Carriers are Emerging
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The Bar is Being Raised on In-Flight Service
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Inflight Service
• The bar has been raised on inflightservice expectations for both LCC and Legacy carriers
• In-flight web surfing will be rolled out on a wider scale
• In-flight personal mobile phone usage is also being explored
28
Presentation Outline
• What is a Low Cost Carrier?• LCC Traffic Trends• Network & Alliance Implications• Fleet issues• Inflight Service• Conclusions
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Conclusions
• The LCC model is evolvingLegacy carriers are rising to the challenge
• The U.S. domestic market is largely matureNiche carriers (e.g. Allegiant) will continue to find unique opportunities
• Long-haul LCC service is the next thresholdAgreements like U.S. – E.U. Open Skies will facilitate further long-haul LCC growth
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strategictransportation
& tourismsolutions
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www.InterVISTAS.com