Latin America and The Caribbean: Poverty, Inequality, Security

United Nations Development Programme

Latin America and The Caribbean: Poverty,

Inequality, Security and the State of Citizenship

Heraldo Muñoz

Assistant Secretary-General, Assistant Administrator and

Director of the Regional Bureau for Latin America and the Caribbean

Washington DC, 13 December, 2011


1. Recent trends: Growth

• In spite of the 2009 crisis LAC has experienced economic growth for the last eight year (over 4% on average)

2.1

6.1

4.9

5.8 5.9

4.4

-1.8

6.2

4.2

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Promedio 2003-2010

Annual GDP Growth Rate, 2003-2010 Percentage

Source: Data from WDI, 2011


2. Recent trends: Poverty • Poverty reduction was achieved partly due to economic growth. The crisis had a smaller impact than expected

Poverty and Extreme Poverty in Latin America, 1980-2011

Percentage

Source: ECLAC. 2011 data an estimate.

Extreme Poverty Poverty

Perc

enta

ge


3. Recent trends: Inequality • Inequality decreased by 1% on average in 13 of the 18 countries analyzed

-1.71 -1.49

-1.31 -1.29 -1.27 -1.07 -0.99 -0.97

-0.77 -0.66 -0.36

-0.24 -0.05

0.05 0.08 0.28 0.35

1.02

-0.94

-0.58

-2.00

-1.50

-1.00

-0.50

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

Ecu

ador

Par

agu

ay

Per

ú

El S

alva

dor

Arg

enti

na

Bra

sil

Rep

úb

lica

Dom

inic

ana

Pan

amá

Méx

ico

Ch

ile

Bol

ivia

Ven

ezu

ela

Hon

du

ras

Gu

atem

ala

Cos

ta R

ica

Uru

guay

Col

omb

ia

Nic

arag

ua

Tot

al 1

3

Tot

al 1

8

An

nu

al P

erce

nt

Ch

ange

Source: Lustig et al. (2011)

Changes in Gini Index, circa 2000-2009 Annual Percent Change


-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

Su

ecia

Au

stri

a

Hol

and

a

Au

stra

lia

Can

adá

Esp

aña

UK

Gre

cia

Isra

el

Pak

ista

n

Ind

ia

Nep

al

Irán

Tu

nez

Bu

lgar

ia

Ucr

ania

Ru

sia

Mal

asia

Ch

ina

Sen

egal

Cam

erú

n

Su

dáf

rica

Arg

enti

na

Rep

. Dom

inic

ana

Cos

ta R

ica

Ch

ile

Bra

sil

El S

alva

dor

Nic

arag

ua

Gu

atem

ala

Bol

ivia

OCDE Sur de Asia MENA ECA APE ASS ingreso medio-alto: ALC Ingreso medio-bajo: ALC

4. The highest inequality in the world among regions

Average Gini : 0.516

Source: Data from SEDLAC and UNU-WIDER.

Gini Index, circa 2009


5. Wide disparities within • Inequality in Uruguay (lowest inequality in LAC) higher than in the USA (highest inequality among high income countries)

40.1

44.4

37.0

38.0

39.0

40.0

41.0

42.0

43.0

44.0

45.0

EE.UU. Uruguay

Gini coefficients in Uruguay and the USA, 2009 Percentage

Source: Data from SEDLAC and UNU-WIDER.


6. The inequality burden

• High inequality levels severely limit human development

-16.4

-19.5

-23.2

-24.0

-25.8

-26.1

-26.6

-27.7

-31.7

-34.1

-40.0 -35.0 -30.0 -25.0 -20.0 -15.0 -10.0 -5.0 0.0

Uruguay

Chile

Argentina

Costa Rica

Perú

México

Paraguay

Panamá

Ecuador

RD

LAC

Venezuela

El Salvador

Nicaragua

Brasil

Guatemala

Honduras

Colombia

Bolivia

Fuente: Con base en datos UNDP (2011)


7. What should be done? • Wide quantitative and qualitative gaps in basic services persist. • Still, poverty and inequality reductions do represent positive signs.

• Maintaining progress in poverty and inequality reduction will demand coordinated efforts in three broad areas:

1. Designing strategies that effectively reach the poorest and the most vulnerable populations 2. Improving effectiveness of universal access programs 3. Making sure that positive growth rates in the region do translate into even greater social development achievements

• The role of the State is crucial, in these and other tasks.


8. Latin America: Trends in Social Public Expenditure and Total Public Expenditure

(GDP %)

Total Public Expenditure (% of weighted average GDP)

Social Public Expenditure (% of weighted average GDP)

Social Public Expenditure Fiscal Priority (Ratio Social/Total)

Source: Data from ECLAC's social expenditure database.


9. Social Public Expenditure Per Capita

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

Social Public Expenditure Per Capita (US PPP 2000 Dollars)

1990-1991

2000-2001

2007-2008

Source: Data from ECLAC. Simple average. **República Bolivariana de, *Estado Bolivariano de


10. Social Citizenship Index

Uruguay

Argentina

Chile

Brasil

Venezuela**

Costa Rica

Panamá

México

Perú Colombia Ecuador

R. Dominicana

El Salvador

Paraguay

Bolivia*

Nicaragua

Guatemala

Honduras

País Medio

Social Citizenship Index (Euclid calculus***)

ICS 2010

ICS 2000

Source: Authors’ calculation based on data from ILO, ECLAC and UNDP HDR 2000 and 2010.

*Estado Plurinacional de (Plurinational State of), **Rep. Bolivariana de, (Bolivarian Republic of) ***Square Root of the sum of the squares of the difference to the value of the best case (benchmarking)


11. Social Citizenship Index

-

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

2000

2010

Source: Authors’ calculation based on data from ILO, ECLAC and UNDP HDR 2000 and 2010.


12. Citizen Insecurity

Rate of homicide per 100,000 inhabitants: the region has the highest rates in the world , and

even higher in the cases of Central America and Mexico.

Source: Authors’calculation based on data from UNOCD, International Homicide Statistics, 2004


13. The most important problems: crime and unemployment

Q: In your opinion: What is the most important problem in the country? Latin America Total 1995-2010 – Total by country 2010 only including “unemployment” and “crime” crime unemployment

Documents

Latin America and The Caribbean: Poverty, Inequality, Security