Land Use Change and Other Factors Affecting Climate Change Benefits of Sugarcane Ethanol in

Brazil

Brazilian Bioethanol Science and Technology Laboratory (CTBE)Task 38 Brazilian National Team Leader

Australia, November 25-26, 2013

Manoel Regis L.V. Leal

Contents

• LUC/ILUC issues– Origins– Impact assessments: uncertainties

• Sugarcane ethanol in Brazil– Countries emissions profile– Ways to control LUC

LUC and ILUC: Why Bother?

• It is required by RED, RFS2, LCFS and other legislations

• They can represent significant impacts on GHG emissions, biodiversity, food security, water balance and quality, soil organic matter (SOM)

What Causes LUC?• Land available for ag-expansion without deforestation (previously

cleared, underutilized) = 500 to 4000 million hectares(1)

This circle size reflects 1500

• Global land area impacts:[million hectares per year] – Fire = 330-430 (2) est. 380– Dev./Urban exp. (1) = 1.5– LUC bioenergy est. (3) = 0.2

too small to be visible(1) Enormous range due to pasture, grassland,

marginal land estimatesSources: (1) Kline et al. 2009; calc. by author based on FAO 2007. (2) Giglio et al. 2010; Randerson 2013. (3) Tyner et al. 2010 (3 m ha total over 14 years = 0.2 M ha each year)

Where LUC GHG Emissions Come From?

Source: Tipper, Hutchinson, Brander, 2009

LUC emissions from biofuels represent only 1% of the total!

Some Facts• Although LUC emissions from biofuels can be significant in their

LCA emissions, they represent only 1% of the global LUC emissions;

• Biofuels occupied only 0.5% (27 Mha) of the managed land in 2007 (1,500 Mha arable land plus 3,400 Mha of pasture) and 2% of the arable land in the world;

• ILUC GHG emissions calculations are still under hot debate.

LUC GHG Emissions (g CO2e/MJ)Source Maize Ethanol Soya Biodiesel

Searchinger et al. (2008) 156 165-270

CARB (2009) 45 63

EPA (2010) 47 54

Hertel et al. (2010) 40 -

Tyner et al. (2010) 21 -

IFPRI MIRAGE (2010) 54 75

Source: EC COM (2010) 811 Final

EPA – 1st round

EPA – 2nd round

Some Reasons For Differences

• Different assumptions and data base, low disaggregation levels;

• Different methodologies: co-products impacts, CGE/PE and allocation models, elasticities, yields, land price;

What Needs to Be Done?

• To reduce LUC/ILUC– Public policies to manage LU– Technology improvements to increase yields and reduce

impacts

• To improve LUC/ILUC analysis– Continue to develop better models– Produce disaggregated data for the local conditions

Sugarcane Ethanol in Brazil

• Country’s LU• Country’s GHG emissions inventory• PP to reduce LUC and impacts• Technology development• GHG LCA

Land Use in Brazil

Brazilian GHG Inventory (2005)

Sector GWP (Tg CO2e) Share (%)

Energy 328.8 15.0

Industry 77.9 3.6

Agriculture 415.8 18.9

Land use change and forest 1,329.1 60.6

Waste treatment 41.0 1.9

Total 2,194.6 100.0

Source: Brazil Second Communication to UNFCCC (MCT, 2010)

Main Public Policies

• National Plan of Climate Change (PNMC)• Low Carbon Agriculture (ABC)• Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning

Deforestation Reduction Commitment

Low Carbon AgricultureTechnology Area Increase (Mha)

Degraded Pasture Recovery 15

Agriculture/Livestock/Forest Integration 4

No-Tillage Cropping 8

Biological Nitrogen Fixation 5.5

Planted Forrest 3

Animal Waste Treatment 4.4

Loans available for implementing these technologies

Degraded Pasture

Dynamics of Sugarcane Expansion

Source: Adami et al., 2012

Agricultural and Pasture Area Outlook

Pasture Area Outlook

Sugarcane Agroecological Zoning

Source: EMBRAPA, 2009

64.5 Mha of land availablefor sugarcane planting with low impacts.It represents only 7.5% of Brazil total area

Technology Improvements to Reduce LUC

• Sugarcane breeding: conventional and GM;• Low impact mechanization: reduce soil

compaction and allow no-tillage planting;• Crop management: precision agriculture,

increase plant density, irrigation, N fixation.

Goals: increase yields and reduce fossil energy use

October2002

Redução da Distância Entre Linhas

Row spacing (m)

Today (Brazil) Initial Target(CTBE)

Final Comments• LUC is a critical issue for biofuels;• The methods and data used to assess its impacts need

to be highly improved;• Biofuels LUC should be considered integrated with

other LUC causes; the dynamics for deforestation and other causes need to be better understood and managed;

• Public Policies and technology development are important tools to reduce LUC impacts.

THANK YOU!

regis.leal@bioetanol.org.br

Energy and GHG Balances For Sugarcane Ethanol

Source: Macedo et al., 2008

GHG Emissions OutlookEnergy Sector

Planted Area (1st crop) by Region