KOSOVO REFERENDUM PREPARES THE GROUND FOR TRIPARTITE APPROACH

8/2/2019 KOSOVO REFERENDUM PREPARES THE GROUND FOR TRIPARTITE APPROACH

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KOSOVO REFERENDUM PREPARESTHE GROUNDFOR TRIPARTITE APPROACHBY ARI RUSILA(FIRSTPUBLISHEDINARI RUSILA'S BALKANBLOG ON FEB 16TH 2012)

Ethnic Serbs living in northernKosovo - municipalities of Zubin Potok, Zvecan, northern Mitrovicaand Leposavic - have been voting in a two-day referendum on

February 14.-15. The question was simple: Voters were asked simply''Do you accept the institutions of the so-called 'Republic of Kosovo'established in Pristina?''. Turnout was at 75.28%. Final results will bemade known on February 19th - just after the fourth anniversary ofKosovo's independence declaration - but early estimate is that 99.74% were against Pristina's sovereignty. In Kosovo case the figureprobably reflects good the opinion of local Serb population. The resultshows that the barricades against EULEX were not just the work ofcriminals and radicals but instead have real popular support.

One should note that question about northern municipalities of Kosovo is only

one - even if a core one - aspect in Kosovo framework. During NATO-bombingand after ethnic cleansing implemented by Kosovo Albanians, nearly 200.000Serbs and Romas escaped to Serbia where they are living like internal refugeesmany of them in temporary conditions. Despite nave multiethnic ideas inBrussels they have not any intentions to risk their lives by returning hostileenvironment and their destroyed homes. In my opinion internationalcommunity which allowed this problem to happen should finance a housingprogram in Serbia for these refugees (or officially IDPs). Second core question isthe fate of some half of remaining Kosovo Serbs namely those who are living inisolated enclaves outside northern municipalities in Kosovo. These enclaves areprotected by KFOR troops and should be so long as Pristina administrated partof Kosovo is so hostile as it still is.

High Tension in Kosovo North

Tension has been high in northern Kosovo since last July. The situationescalated when Kosovo Serbs put up roadblocks and barricades to stop thedeployment of Kosovo customs officers to border points between north Kosovomunicipalities and Serbia. Several rounds of violence has occurred; a Kosovopoliceman was killed and several NATO troops injured. The north was the sceneof unrest in November, when some 50 soldiers from the NATO-led KFORpeacekeeping force were hurt in a dispute between the two sides over control

of border crossings. This Pristinas failed attempt to seize the northernboundary with support by EULEX and KFOR have demonstrated that using forcedoes not solve dispute.
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The governing coalition in Belgrade has called on the Serbs to end theblockade, refrain from violence and abandon the referendum and same timeseveral EU nations, especially Germany, want Serbia's government to makedeals with Pristina so that Serbia could get EU candidate status this Spring.

In Brussels, the EU said it was preparing for a new round of talks betweenBelgrade and Pristina aimed at easing tensions in northern Kosovo. "There is aparticular situation in the north that needs a solution, but neither violence norbarricades, or a referendum contributes to it," EU spokeswoman Maja Kocijancicsaid. "Only a dialogue can achieve that." (SourceAP) Earlier the EU pressuredSerbia intensely in November and December, demanding that it force thenorthern Kosovo Serbs to remove their barricades in the name of freedom ofmovement. KFOR fought several actions against barricades, inflicting andtaking casualties.

The burned down border crossing Jarinje on Kosovo's northern frontier with Serbia in the

early hours on July 28, 2011. (SASA DJORDJEVIC/AFP/Getty Images)

Time to Exit-strategy?However the western powers have on the drawing board also an other strategyof fostering change to avoid reinforcing the status quo in the north. The pressin Pristina has reported about secret meetings between the Kosovogovernment, the US ambassador and chief of the International Civilian Office(ICO), Pieter Feith,on a new plan to push the UN out of the north. An EUHouse will be established in the north to promote the European perspectiveand to cooperate with progressive forces willing to work with Pristina,parallel municipalities in the north would remain unrecognized and AdvisoryCouncils led by moderate Kosovo Serbs chosen by Pristina taking place from

democratically elected bodies in Leposavic, Zubin Potok and Zvecan. To makespace for these innovations the United Nations Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK)Administration in Mitrovica (UAM), that administers north Mitrovica under UNSecurity Council Resolution 1244, will be closed.

Also the International Steering Group (ISG) had meeting on January 24thinVienna to deside its 2012 program for Kosovo. Despite its name ISG representsonly countries which have advocated Kosovo Albanian separatism, cover costsof Kosovo Albanian state-building efforts.cover costs of Kosovo Albanian state-building efforts and try to underestimate UN Security Council Resolution 1244 which btw represents in Kosovo highest international law. Anyway ISG issued a

communique calling upon the government of Kosovo to continue to implementthe Ahtisaari Plan, aiming to complete outstanding elements so that the periodof supervised independence could terminate by the end of this year. While
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the outcome both politically and on operation theatre has been modest as bestand the results related to investments almost non-visible, ISG probably hishurry to implement fast exit-strategy.

Marko Prelec from International Crisis Group concludes well the situation nowsince last summer tensions started in his post Update on Northern KosovoBarricades. A quote:

The situation shows with crystal clarity the folly of the freedom ofmovement campaign, which cost tens of millions of Euros (flyingKosovo officials to, and from, the border day after day runs intoserious money), dozens of injuries, made travel more difficult for realpeople and achieved nothing. All this started because of the basicdisputes between Kosovo and Serbia, over Kosovos independenceand territorial integrity. Trying to use issues like freedom of movement or the rule of law as tools to change locals minds aboutsovereignty issues, rather than as ends in themselves, just damagesthe tool. The dispute isnt a technicality and cannot be resolved as

though it were.

or back to Dialogue?

Dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina has poor history. Serbs and Albanianshave been in negotiations and talks frequently over the past two decades from the tentative efforts of the 1990s to the doomed talks in Rambouillet,France, in 1999 and the later status talks between 2005 (Ahtisaaris pseudo-talks) and 2007 (Troika led talks). None of these has led to tangible resultsand left outsiders imposing an outcome, be it NATO intervention or proposing

the Ahtisaari plan.

The original or better to say official aim of international community was to buildstandards before status, on 2005 the task was seen impossible so the sloganchanged to standards and status. Even this was unrealistic so Feb. 2008Europeanstandards were thrown away to garbage and status withoutstandards precipitately accepted by western powers. For internationalcommunity I dont see any success story with this backward progress. Thus themultiethnic idea is far away despite EUs billions. The remaining Serbs inKosovo are barricaded into enclaves keeping their lives mainly with help ofinternational KFOR troops or in de facto separated Serb majority region in North

Kosovo. This has changed former multiethnic province more mono-ethnic one.
http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/balkanregatta/2012/02/13/update-on-northern-kosovo-barricades/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/balkanregatta/2012/02/13/update-on-northern-kosovo-barricades/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/balkanregatta/2012/02/13/update-on-northern-kosovo-barricades/http://www.crisisgroupblogs.org/balkanregatta/2012/02/13/update-on-northern-kosovo-barricades/


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Rewrite History: The Map of Destroyed Shrines in Post-war Kosovo

(To see picture above in full size clickhere!)

The new situation has forced also International Crisis Group (ICG) to admit thedefeat of its Kosovo policy recommendations during last decade. ICG has actedas informal extension of U.S. State Department however pretending to beneutral mediator and think tank. During earlier status negotiations 2005 itendorsed preconditions before talks and afterwards supported sc Ahtisaariplan. Now in their new analysis Kosovo and Serbia after the ICJ Opinion ICGsees Kosovos partition with land swap one of possible solutions during coming

talks between Belgrad and Pristina.The fact on the groundis that northern part of Kosovo is integrated to Serbialike it always has been, as well those parts south of Ibar river, which are notethnically cleansed by Kosovo Albanians. Serbia still runs municipalities, courts,police, customs and public services, and the EU Rule of Law Mission (EULEX)has been unable to deploy more than a token presence there.

During the course of events, the Ahtisaari Plan was implemented in southKosovo, the north, however, remained outside Kosovo institutions and the ICO,and the Ahtisaari Plan was not implemented there. The Ahtisaari Plan derived aformula that would allow Kosovo Serbs to have their own local institutions and

communal life with continued linkages to Serbia, but within the framework of amulti-ethnic Kosovo. If partition option which in my opinion is pragmatic, thebest and even realistical way to solve Kosovo conflict is not yet possible so
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then the Ahtisaari Plan might be temporary base for compromise. The Planhowever needs some modification. A new follow-up - entitled The AhtisaariPlan and North Kosovo- is presented by TransConflictand it might beachievable as the policy paper is authored by Gerard Gallucci, the former UNRegional Representative in Mitrovica.

My Scenario

Kosovo a Serbian province, occupied and now international protectorateadministrated by UN Kosovo mission; as quasi-independent pseudo-state hasgood change to become next failed or captured state; todays Kosovo isalready safe-heaven for war criminals, drug traffickers, international moneylaundry and radical Wahhabists unfortunately all are also allies of western

powers.

(Ari Rusila)

US based Freedom House gave in their last report(2012) rank partly free toKosovo related to political rights and civil liberties (5,4 points respectively),

while Serbia got rank free (2,2) and e.g also Croatia (1,2), Bulgaria (2,2) andRomania (2,2) got rank free, while Bosnia-Herzegovina (4,3) and Albania (3,3)fell to category partly free. (Note: Each country is assigned a numerical ratingfrom 1 to 7 for both political rights and civil liberties, with 1 representing themost free and 7 the least free.) So even western powers must addmit thatdespite billions of dollars for Kosovo state-building efforts during last 12 yearsthe outcome is that the protectorate still is among the worst in region relatedto political rights and civil liberties. One could ask why then Kosovo Serbsshould go backwards by integrating to that society when better the alternativecould be integrate also officially to more developed Serbia.

In my opinion Kosovo will remain a frozen conflict probably whole this decade.The western powers can not addmit yet that their intervention was amistake, international community can not addmit its failure withcapasity-/state-building efforts after squandering billions of Euros, noor thatinstead of multiethnic democracy the out outcome mono-ethnic tribe-society.EULEX etc will continue to build some facades and pseudo-activities like it usedto do, Pristina pretends that north is integral part of their quasi-independentpseudo-state which the North never has been, the Kosovo institutions do notexist in the north, and it is very unlikely that they will be established theresoon. Hard-line Serbs keep claim about Kosovo as Serbian province, which itindeed has been but after 1999 situation on the ground changed; instead the

today's government in Belgrade might change in next elections. What is clearafter referendum is that population in Kosovo's northern municipalities does notwant to integrate Pristina lead institutions, they want to continue their living aspart of Serbia like they always have been, in short they want reunify northernmunicipalities with Serbia again.

After this quite pessimistic view one can ask if there is any other way forward.From my point of view there is the negotiation option. But this timenegotiations should base facts on the ground instead of high-flown ideas inWashington and Brussels, around negotiation table in addition to Belgrade andPristina representatives should be also local stakeholders from northern Kosovo

and selected by local population. The referendum made positions clear fortripartite approach.

More eg in Kosovo: Two years of Pseudo-state
http://www.transconflict.com/10/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/PolicyPaper_AhtisaariPlanNorthKosovo.pdfhttp://www.transconflict.com/10/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/PolicyPaper_AhtisaariPlanNorthKosovo.pdfhttp://www.transconflict.com/http://www.freedomhouse.org/http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2010/02/20/kosovo-two-years-of-pseudo-state/http://www.transconflict.com/10/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/PolicyPaper_AhtisaariPlanNorthKosovo.pdfhttp://www.transconflict.com/10/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/PolicyPaper_AhtisaariPlanNorthKosovo.pdfhttp://www.transconflict.com/http://www.freedomhouse.org/http://arirusila.wordpress.com/2010/02/20/kosovo-two-years-of-pseudo-state/


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Serbia: Kosovo vs EU?

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KOSOVO REFERENDUM PREPARES THE GROUND FOR TRIPARTITE APPROACH