CLIMATE CHANGE AND

DISASTER IMPACT

REDUCTION

Edited byKOMAL RAJ ARYAL

ZAINA GADEMA

CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISASTER

IMPACT REDUCTION

Edited by KOMAL RAJ ARYAL

ZAINA GADEMA

i

It is with a definite sense of pride that I register anotherfirst for the School of Applied Sciences - Komal Raj Aryaland Zaina Gadema’s edited volume of the UK- South Asiaseminar held in Kathmandu in June 2008.

The event itself focused on young scientists andpractitioners, providing a forum to share knowledge, goodpractice and experiences of building pre and postdisaster planning capacity, with a specific reference toclimate change. A forum, which I hope will develop furtherto provide and promote a lifelong collaboration in theexchange of ideas to reduce vulnerability and increaseresilience to disasters. Central to this work is thecollaboration between academics and “blue light” servicepersonnel who work at the front line of disasters; and I amparticularly grateful for the continued support andcollaboration of Tyne and Wear Fire Service and theNepalese Police and Fire Services. I very much hopethese relationships are strengthened further in the future,particularly as we widen out our partnerships to otherservices both in the UK and abroad.

What pleases me most about this publication is thequality of the papers produced, which reflect the highquality of presentations made at the event. I can only

applaud your maturity and insight in both written andspoken performance. I would like to thank Professor PhilO’Keefe and Dr Sam Jones for serving as the secretariatat the meeting itself and for providing the support toKomal and Zaina in the production of this volume. Finalthanks go to the sponsors of the original meeting, namelyDelPHE programme of British Council, DFID andProVention Consortium. I would also like to pay particularthanks to our hosts: the Ministry of Local Development;Dhankuta Municipality Risk and Resilience Committee;and the Disaster Management and SustainableDevelopment Centre, Kathmandu University.

With such a significant output from the first meeting, andwith the continued involvement of our sponsors andhosts, I very much look forward to the next meeting, whichhas much to live up to after such an effective and highquality start.

Professor Julie MennellDean, School of Applied Sciences Northumbria UniversityNewcastle, UK

Foreword

ii

Our personal thanks to all the contributors to this volume, who willingly shared their researchexperiences and participated UK-South Asia Young Scientists and Practitioners Seminar onClimate Change and Disaster Impact Reduction at Kathmandu, Nepal on 05-06 June,2008.This book is based on the papers presented in the seminar. We gratefullyacknowledge the support of International Networking for Young Scientists (INYS) andDevelopment Partnerships in Higher Education (DelPHE) programmes of the British Counciland Department for International Development (DfID), UK. Our special thanks go to OliverFlude, Louise Joyce, Archana Sharma and Smreety Dewan.

Thanks to Professor Phil O’Keefe and Dr. Samantha Jones for their suggestions andcomments in helping to structure this volume.

Thanks go to Dr. Andrew Collins, Director, Disaster and Development Centre, NorthumbriaUniversity, Mr. Pratap Kumar Pathak, acting secretary, Prime Minister’s Office, Government of Nepal, Mahndra Khamyahang, Nushraj Shrestha and Bidur KC.

Finally on the behalf of all participants of Kathmandu event we express our special thanks toMs. Margaret Arnold and Professor Julie Mennell for their participation and valuable remarksat Kathmandu event.

Komal Raj Aryal, Zaina Gadema,Christmas, 2008 Newcastle, UK

Acknowledgements

iii

Recent climate predictions suggest a fivedegree increase in temperature by 2080, that50 million people may be at risk of hunger by2020, that millions of people in South, SouthEast and East Asia will be flooded, and thatthere will be an increased toll on countriesalready with high burdens of poverty andinfectious disease1. Whilst precisepredictions on the impact of climate changeare far from secure, varied scenariosconsistently indicate that temperatures willrise, and that climatic events will becomemore variable and extreme over much ofSouth Asia. Little research yet specifies theextent to which the development of coping,adaptation and resilience will offset thepotential impacts of climate on environment,people and institutions. The issuesassociated with climate and disasters arecomplex in that they engage changinghazards, vulnerabilities and security contexts.Specifically, we know that poverty,marginalisation, environmental change(social, economic, and physical), and conflictcomprise humanitarian emergencies.Reversing negative trends in this fieldtherefore requires the knowledge andperspectives of a wide range of specialistand lay persons. Disaster impact reductionbecomes by necessity an integratedapproach and people centred. It seeks topromote wealth and wellbeing, inclusion andreduced vulnerability, manageableenvironmental change, and conflictmitigation. Some of the challenges are toreduce the uncertainties in risk assessmentsand identify implementable solutions at thelocal level, with regard to systems of

governance that best facilitate theseprocesses.

This event focused on the link betweenclimate change and disaster impactreduction. It was opened by a high levelrepresentation from the Government ofNepal, international developmentorganisations and university leaders. Itspurpose was achieved; to consider local andregional perspectives on the climate threat,share and stimulate ideas about how peopleare reducing climate associated risks, andfurther engage networks that can contributetowards a more sustainable future.Presentation contributions were made frommore than ten countries. The seminarengaged with theoretical, methodologicaland policy aspects of the subject area basedon original research and reviews. There wasa genuine sense that presentations weremade to a very high standard with astimulating level of varied and contextspecific detail.

We engaged with a particularly strong set ofexamples from South Asia, from themountain environments of Nepal to thedeltas of Bangladesh. Presentations anddiscussion took place on physical hazardsranging from varied types of flood, landslide,fire and drought. These were addressedalongside analysis of vulnerability, risk andresilience. There have been models of goodpractice for disaster mitigation fromcommunity based protection strategies toinstitutional responses in the mode ofemergency management. Education hasemerged as crucial, both formally and

Executive Summary

1 IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007: ThePhysical Science Basis, Summary forPolicymakers, Contribution of WorkingGroup 1 to the Fourth Assessment Reportof the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, Geneva: WMO and UNEP.

iv

informally. The importance for universities toengage in research, teaching and learningactivities in the climate and disasters field wasfurther demonstrated by this occasion.However, education is for all and extends intothe communities, schools and otherinstitutions. Particularly good examples ofprogress in this respect were presented fromTurkey, Japan and Bangladesh.

We frequently noted how climate and disasterimpact reduction issues are both global andlocal, demonstrated also by presentationshowing recent flooding events in the UnitedKingdom. Making distinctions between notionsof developed and developing worlds in thisrespect are not always useful. The threatsidentified are interrelated both in terms ofglobal climate, economies and political forces.We are all in this together. Furthermore, on adistinctly positive note, we witnessed how theresearch agenda for both new and establishedscholars has become and can become furtherinternationalised. We noted the particularstrength of contributions combiningenvironmental and social perspectives, inmany instances drawing in much widerdisciplinary influences. We exposed evidencethat climate change and disaster reduction iswell on the agenda of the academiccommunity in this region and elsewhere. It isalso on the agenda of NGOs, practitioners andGovernment. However we have seen how weare still in the early parts of a long road aheadnot only in terms of there being the politicalwill, but also in terms of building sufficientknowledge and capacity, essentially bothspecialised and accessible.

There is a need to further understand the fullnature of hazard, and the characteristics ofresilience that reduces climate change impact.There are many ongoing questions, some ofwhich were posited at the start of this eventbut which became clearer alongside the casestudies provided. How can we better invest inresearch that will enable a wide variety ofconcerned groups and civil society to riskassess more fully and to manage riskeffectively? What are appropriate forms ofgovernance at local and wider levels thatallows this agenda to be appropriatelysupported?

We know that climate change is not all in thisagenda. In many instances a reduction ofpoverty and marginalisation would reduceclimate impact significantly. We know thatappropriate preparedness and responsesystems can prevent major environmentalevents becoming a disaster. Linking to realworld situations, full on and applied, we canmake a difference rather than accepting afatalistic view of what is now inevitableincreases in temperature and unpredictability inlocal and region climate systems. Some of thestudents contributing to this event and moreestablished academics were associated withthe Universities organising the event. Otherscame from beyond. It has been particularlyencouraging to note that a community of newscholars is strengthening in this field. This initself spells significant hope for the future.

Dr. Andrew Collins, Director Disaster and Development Centre (DDC)School of Applied SciencesNorthumbria University

Foreword i

Acknowledgements ii

Executive Summary iii

Introduction 1-7

Komal Raj Aryal and Zaina Gadema

Climate Change and Variability, Energy and Disaster Management: 8Produced Risks without Produced Solutions – Rethinking the Approach

Geoff O’Brien, Professor Phil O’Keefe, Joanne Rose and Leanne Wilson

Climate Change and Pesticides in Nepal: Chronic Exposure and Environmental Health Effects 18

Zaina Gadema

Dendrochronological Analsyes and Climate Change Perceptions in Langtang National Park, Central Nepal 28

Parveen Kumar Chhetri

Integrated Forest Fires Management in Spain: Towards a More Resilient Model? 33

Laura Barba Villaescusa

Local Government Co-operation with Climate Change Training in Turkey 39

Nihan Erdogan

Two Approaches to Disaster Education 43

Hideyuki Shiroshita

Spatial Assessment of Risk of River Flood in Dhaka City, Bangladesh 47

Animesh Kumar GAIN ,M. Mozzammel HOQUE and Martin J. BOOIJ

Contents

An Emerging Geospatial Database for Biodiversity and Climate Change Studies – Indian Preparedness 53

P.K. Joshi

A Changing Climate: Developing Community Resilience in the UK 58

Robert Bell and Joseph McFarland

INVESTIGACIÓN SOBRE ENOS EN AMÉRICA LATINA: REFLEXIONES, APRENDIZAJES Y DESAFÍOS 66

Alonso Brenes

Improving Resilience: Coping with Global Climate Change Locally 69

Dinanath Bhandari

Indigenous Knowledge and Modern Science Provide Environmentally Friendly 74Shelter Solutions in Flood Affected Desert Regions of India

Mihir Joshi

Social and Environmental Vulnerabilities in the Face of Climate Change for the Semi-arid Area of Bahia – Brazil 79

Andrea Souza Santos

Climate Change and Education: Issues Arising 86

Professor Fuad H Mallick

Additional Earthquake Risk from Climate Change and Preparation in Nepal 90

Binod Shrestha

Landscape, Livelihoods and Risk: A Study of Community Vulnerability to Landslide Events in Central Nepal 94

K.J. Oven, Professor D.N. Petley, J.R. Rigg; C.E. Dunn and N.J. Rosser.

1

Geoff O’Brien and Phil O’Keefeexplored the links between climate variability,energy analysis and disaster management.Accelerated climate change and increasingclimate variability is the single largest threatto the international goals of sustainabledevelopment, the Millennium DevelopmentGoals (MDGs) and disaster risk reduction.Global discourses recognise the need foreffective and sustainable responses tsoproduced climate risks. The risk types likelyto occur are known, but only in broad terms -their scale, severity, longevity and frequencyare not known. The challenge forpolicymakers is developing an effectiveframework within which sustainableresponses can be formulated. To address theproblems of produced risks acomprehensive approach to riskmanagement is necessary. The mechanismswithin the climate change, sustainabledevelopment and disaster risk reductiondiscourses are not sufficiently effective orintegrated to respond to this challenge.Fundamental reform to current modes of riskreduction is needed, but this can only beachieved through a shift in the dominantperspective on formulating sustainableresponses. This requires a shift to anenabling policy framework that encouragesbottom-up resilient responses.

Resilience is argued as a tool for policydevelopment that can enhance adaptivecapacity to current climate risks and shapeenergy policy to respond to mitigate futureclimate risks.

Zaina Gadema explored the link betweenpesticide use and climate change in Nepal.The pesticide usage scenario in Nepal istypically characterised by highly toxic,inexpensive and generic formulations thatfrequently do not meet internationally agreedstandards. Many are neurotoxic,carcinogenic, tetragenic in nature, and/or aresuspected endocrine disruptors. Rice is avaluable cash crop, the principal staple foodand major source of nutrition in the Nepalesediet. Increasingly, agricultural intensificationunder climate change associated withgeneric pesticides (often viewed by farmersas a panacea to farming difficulty) is shapingand driving food production of primary foodstaples, essential for food and livelihoodsecurity. In the context of chronic exposure,widespread pesticide use is of significantconcern as adverse health consequencesthrough cumulative consumption ofcontaminated food is likely to jeopardiselong-term health of the Nepalese population.Additionally, an extensive review of literaturerevealed a distinct paucity of peer-reviewliterature specifically quantifying andevaluating pesticide residues in rice fromNepal.

Rationale for this study stemmed from theneed to ascertain pesticide usage in foodproduction to assess chronic healthexposure in Nepal. Samples of rice weresourced from intensively farmed regions,supplying much of the urban population ofKathmandu and surrounding areas withagricultural produce, extracted and analysed

It is with great pleasure to producethis edited proceeding of ‘ClimateChange and Disaster Impact’ whichemerged from UK- South Asia young scientists’ seminar in Nepal in June 2008.

Three dominant themes link thepapers. The first is an emphasis onmapping natural hazard changes asthey impact both on natural systemsand social systems. The secondtheme is one of building improvedpre-disaster planning capacity bybuilding national and local resilience.The final theme is the role ofknowledge and education, includingthe importance of understanding therole of indigenous knowledge todisaster risk reduction.

IntroductionKomal Raj Aryal and Zaina Gadema

2

using liquid solvent extraction (LSE) and gaschromatography mass spectrometry(GC/MS) techniques. Residueconcentrations and health hazard risks werequantified and evaluated in terms of chronicexposure using admissible daily intakes(ADIs) and maximum residue levels (MRLs)stipulated by the Food and AgricultureOrganisation (FAO) and World HealthOrganisation (WHO).

Pesticide residues were detected in alllocations. Additionally, 13 pesticides wereidentified, including 2 classified by WHO asextremely hazardous, being Methyl Parathionand Aldrin, both of which are persistentorganic pollutants (POPs) and exhibit majorhealth implications even at low levels ofexposure. 91% of detected pesticides areclassified by WHO as moderately hazardousor above although, 92% of contaminatedresidues occur below ADIs and 73% ofresidue concentrations occur below MRLs.However, the pesticides detected have variedtoxicological effects to human health throughchronic exposure.

Parveen Kumar Chhetri focused on tree analysis to interpret climate change incentral Nepal. Anthropogenic climate changeis increasingly linked with the rapid increasein overall global temperatures over the lastfive decades which are in turn, directlyattributed to a continual growth in the amountand concentration of greenhouse gases,such as CO2. However, lack of long-termclimatic data for local and regional areas canpresent a major stumbling block in studyingclimate change. Dendrochronology is avaluable tool with which to study climatic

change, as it provides long-term climaticpattern indices. To determine climaticvariation patterns, this study involved using120 tree cores from 60 trees of Abiesspectablies from two different sites,Chandanbari and Cholangpati areas, ofLangtang National Park. To ascertain theextent to which climate change issues wereunderstood and perceived in the local area,local people were interviewed.

Analyses of increment cores from both sitesshowed that the trees in questionranged from100-300 years old. Trees from theChandanbari site were found to be older thanin Cholangpati. The mean tree ring width ofChandanbari was 2.34mm and that ofCholangpati site was 1.70mm. This illustratedthat growth rate was highest (2.34mm/yr) atthe Chandanbari and lowest (1.70mm/yr) atthe Cholangpati site. Series inter-correlationand mean sensitivity were recorded at 0.457and 0.223 respectively for Chandanbari, and0.499 and 0.203 respectively for the secondsite, Cholangpati. The high mean sensitivityvalue indicated that high inter-annualvariability was present in the ring widths andthat chronological data was sensitive toyearly environmental changes so that theAbiesspecies was suitable for responseanalysis. Response analysis for the tree-ringparameter,together with recorded data ofclimatic change, showed that the ring widthwas negatively correlated with May minimummonthly temperatures and positivelycorrelated with March and June total monthlyprecipitation rates.

Interviews revealed that people perceivedsignificant changes in weather patterns,particularly in the form of lower snow fall

rates, irregular rainfall patterns, intenserainfall events, the upward shifting of snowlines, decline in productivity of rangelandsand early blossoming of rhododendronspecies over the last decade. This studyrecommends further studies to beundertaken across more sites and treespecies, with greater numbers of samples toenable the reconstruction and formation ofclimate scenarios using regional climatic datacovering longer time periods.

Laura Barba Villaesusa addressed theissue of pre-disaster planning and responsein fire management in Spain. Forest fires inSpain are a recurring problem. Every year,forest fires cumulatively cause significanteconomic, environmental, material, healthand mortality costs. Traditionally wildfire plansin Spain have been focused on the responsephase. Government funding has been aimedmainly at institutional resilience.

Social prevention and rehabilitation havelargely been neglected. As a result, thenumber of forest fires has risen sharply in thelast two decades. In Spain it is imperative thata more holistic approach to the problem offorest fires is adopted to increase resilience.This article focuses on Spanish efforts to fightforest fires and new approaches adopted thataim to make the country more resilient.Spain’s resilience and efficacy in dealing withforest fires depends largely on whethermodern approaches consider social andphysical factors of implementation andwhether national policies are sufficientlydeveloped to cope with coordinating andincorporating a combination of factors forintegrated fire risk management, via research,prevention, response and restoration.

3

Nihan Erdogan took the issue ofresilience further addressing buildingcapacity in local government. Turkey’scomplex topography and geographicallocation makes it prone to many types ofgeophysical hazard and when these occur inor near areas where people live or rely uponfor food and livelihood security, particularlyprone to disaster. Weather related disastersare thus high risk with the potential toadversely affect the country at local, regionaland national levels. Disasters can causehigh mortality rates and substantial economicloss. Various studies have been undertakento learn more about climate change and itseffects in Turkey. Studies indicate thepotential for imminent and significantchanges in precipitation and climatictemperature patterns. These findings andthe Turkish Government’s recognition for theneed to mitigate adverse impacts of climatechange have led to the formation of the FirstNational Communication on Climate Change.Many other actions have taken place in linewith the European Union. Numerousstakeholders are now involved in working inthe sphere of climate change. Climatechange as a stand-alone subject is now alsooften delivered to students in schools as theeducational context is becoming moreprominent. This study gives an overview ofTurkey’s hazard profile and how climatechange is perceived. It also informs us howTurkey deals with climate change within theframework of education, how information isdelivered to students and of preventativeactions championed by the implementedtraining programmes in question. This paperconcludes by outlining the strengths andweaknesses of current training programmeswith a discussion of how these can beimproved for the future.

Hideyuki Shiroshita provides aninternational comparison of two very differentapproaches to disaster education at schoollevel. His paper outlines two distinctapproaches to disaster education, namelyindependent and holistic. It uses examples ofdisaster education in Japan and the UnitedKingdom. Based on these examples and inlight of the likely increase in the risk of hazardevents associated with climate change, thepaper explores how two very differentapproaches might be applied to pre-disasterplanning and the mitigation of disasters.

Numerous internal and external factors driveclimate change. Global warming, in thecontext of ‘natural’, ongoing environmentalchange, independent of human activity isconsidered as an internal factor. In contrast,accelerated global warming resulting from,for instance, industrialisation that leads toincreased levels of greenhouse gasesemissions (GHGs),is considered as anexternal contributory factor. Relationshipsbetween internal and external factors are notalways transparent, especially at the localscale. It also remains difficult to projectimpacts resulting from climate change,although recently, the Fourth AssessmentReport of the IPCC suggests that an increasein severe climatic events around the world,especially, the frequency of heavyprecipitation events is likely.

There are significant differences between thecausal mechanisms of climate change andnatural hazards. Anthropogenicmechanisms triggering accelerated globalwarming can arguably be mitigated.Conversely, many natural hazards cannot be

easily mitigated, nor is an increase in naturaldisasters necessarily attributable to peoples’activities. In the global sense, climate changeis more open to effective pre-disasterplanning than other environmental hazardrisks.

Animesh Kumar Gain and MozzamelHoque and Martin J. Booij examineflood risk in Bangladesh. In Bangladesh,flooding has a serious detrimental impactupon livelihood and food security for millions ofpeople. Adverse impacts of climate change inBangladesh have already been witnessed withthe increase of severe climatic events,particularly flooding. The geographical andtopographical nature of Bangladesh meansthat much of the land is at or below sea level.Rising temperatures and sea levels are ofmajor concern, particularly as rapid changes inclimate heavily influence weather patterns withthe potential to cause catastrophicconsequences as a result of increasedflooding. Furthermore, Dhaka, the capital cityof Bangladesh is surrounded by a network ofrivers which makes the city vulnerable toflooding.

In this study, a flood hazard map usingGeographic Information System (GIS) and ahydrodynamic model, HEC-RAS of the Balu-Tongi Khal River system, which lies inthe eastern part of Dhaka City (that has noprotection barriers against flood) has beendeveloped over a 100-year period. A riskmap of 100-year flood episodes is presentedwhich outlines a range of potential risks ofthe study area in the context of economicloss. In comparison to classical inundationmaps, the risk map developed as a result of

4

this study generates more information aboutflooding events because it brings intoaccount economic impacts of flooding.

The map is a useful reference tool whenconsidering policy alternatives to minimiseloss of property brought about as a directconsequence of floods in the study area.

P. K. Joshi explores building GeographicalInformation Systems to be deployed inpreparedness planning. Spatial and temporalvariabilities of climate and anthropogenicpressures on natural ecosystems arecomplicated processes. Nevertheless, it isessential to consider a holistic range ofimpacts generated by these differentprocesses on the structure and function ofecosystems. Therefore, there is a real needto develop baseline information for biosphereand atmosphere dynamics in order tofacilitate greater capability to forecastfeedback loops in the context of land use andland coverage change (LULCC) (habitatfragmentation and invasion, species loss,biogeochemical processes and so forth). Arange of geospatial techniques for databasecreation, including remote sensing,geographic information systems (GIS) andgrid and pervasive computing (GPC) can beused upon which socio-economic, phyto-sociological data and modelling techniquescan also be incorporated to provide morecomprehensive insights into often, complexand overlapping issues.

By taking this broad technological approach,alternative approaches both to mitigate andadapt to changes in LULCC can be made.This paper discusses India’s nationalinitiatives that are in place for mapping and

characterising differences(at the landscapelevel) in biodiversity across the country. Thedatabase generated from this studydemonstrates the potential and limits of arange of tools available to assess landscapeecology. The study illustrates the extent towhich these tools enable integration ofancillary information (for example, socialinventory and climate data) for databases aswell as modelling techniques. It also showsthe synergistic nature of these tools in thecontext of information collation and how theycan be utilised to predict and assessecological trends and impacts of climatechange, especially with respect toanthropogenic pressure on biologicalrichness. The work is summarised in the formof a Biodiversity Information System (BIS);aninteractive Web GIS platform for informationdissemination, communication and collationthat derives information from a diverse rangeof sources.

Robert Bell, Joseph McFarland,Laura Pole and Matt Innerd have asimilar focus on building vulnerability analysisfor pre-disaster planning. Natural disasters inthe United Kingdom (UK) are rare events.However, over the past ten years the numberof emergencies caused by environmentalhazards has increased, the worst of whichhave resulted in significant long-term effectson communities. The UK has well establishedand resourced response arrangements tomanage these emergencies but currentcapabilities are no longer sufficient to dealwith the impacts of large-scale events. Thechanging climate will affect an increasingproportion of the UK population as thefrequency and severity of environmentalrelated incidents rise. There is need to

develop better individual and communityresilience to changing environmentalconditions. Providing comprehensiveunderstanding of the nature of individual andcommunity vulnerability will enable planningand preparation to be accurately targeted toachieve more robust resilience.

Alonso Brenes introduced the work of LaRed and talked of building hazard trajectorythat could be used by actors and institutionsto strengthen pre-disaster planning. Heemphasised the research tradition of La Redbut also the importance of the exchange ofexperience and implementation of buildingresilience capacity across Latin Americanand the Caribbean. He particularlyemphasised the diversity of studies available

One major focus was changes in El Nino.Trying to understand changes over time anddeveloping new methods to measure thosechanges requires a strong technical appliedscience. As the limits of the El Ninomovement are defined multiple adaptationalalternatives can be explored.

Dinanath Bhandari explored therelationship between global climate changeand local response. Communities in Nepalare vulnerable to climate-induced hazardssuch as landslides, floods and unusualrainfall. These hazards impact adversely onthe livelihoods and assets upon which poorpeople depend. This paper discusses howthe impacts of climate change are affectingthe lives and livelihoods of people living in themid-hills and Terai of Nepal and how peopleare reacting to these adversities. Practical

5

field experience has identified severalstrategies that increase resilience to theseimpacts and may be suitable for widerreplication.

Information collected through personalinterviews, group discussions, fieldobservations and reviews of relevantliterature show that the impacts ofmeteorological events are real and adverse.Erratic patterns of rainfall, increasingfrequency of hailstorms, dry storms andprolonged drought are symptomatic ofclimate change. Poor ecosystem health, dueto excessive exploitation of natural resources,has increased the impact of climaticvariability. Weather-related disastrous eventshave noticeably increased in frequency andintensity in recent years.

Communities have traditionally adopteddifferent strategies to cope with the impact ofhazards but their success and futuresustainability is uncertain. Our studyconcludes that awareness plays a crucialrole in building the confidence and capacityof communities to adopt appropriatestrategies that allow them to adapt to theimpacts of changing climatic conditions.Appropriate management of naturalresources strengthens the resilience andadaptive capacity of ecosystems.Diversification of options for incomegeneration and alternative livelihoodopportunities helps families to become moreresilient. Institutional and external support isnecessary for long-term sustainability ofadaptation measures.

Mihir Joshi explored the development ofadaptive technologies in dealing with habitatin India. In August 2006, unprecedentedheavy rains flooded several villages of theotherwise drought stricken Barmer District ofthe desert state of Rajasthan in westernIndia. Over one hundred hours of continuousrain inundated several villages in up to thirtyfeet of water. Such rains and floods hadnever been witnessed in this region in over200 years of recorded history. The localcommunities and administrative systemswere not prepared for such an emergencysituation. The floods took a toll of 139 liveswhile almost 50,000 people lost their homes.The impact of this damage was particularlysevere because houses in this region arenormally built in depressions between sanddunes to protect from sandstorms ratherthan flood. These low-lying pockets wereflooded worst and due to the impervioussub-soils, water flow was restricted andstagnated for weeks. Because the region issparsely populated and has little in terms ofinfrastructural facilities, lack of access toservices for Barmer residents constrainsrelief, recovery and rehabilitation phases ofthe disaster cycle.

SEEDS, a national NGO, immediately visitedaffected areas and carried out a damageassessment along with a study of the localnatural and built environment. The teamfound that traditional construction practicesin the area were based on mud walls andthatched roofs, with circular shelter designs.Materials for house construction werecreated with the minimum of ecological andcarbon footprints. Houses were thermallycomfortable and conducive to extremeweather conditions prevalent in the area. Thecircular design protects structures from

strong winds and earthquakes, whilstconstruction processes are simple andsuited to local skills.

It was also realised that though traditionalpractices were appropriate, the mudstructures did have certain shortfalls in waterresistance capacity due to which manyhouses had suffered severe damage duringthe floods. While traditional wisdom hadprovided a very high level of performance forgenerations, support of technologicalinterventions were needed to help face thechallenges posed by unprecedenteddisasters linked with climate change.

Research was carried out on appropriatetechnologies for supporting traditionalconstruction systems, which led to theStabilised Compressed Earth Block (SCEB)technology, wherein local mud was stabilisedwith five percent cement, and compressedinto blocks that had high structural strengthand water resistant capability. Blocks weredesigned to be of an interlocking design sothat construction was easy for the localpopulation and provided additional strengthto resist earthquakes that are a distinctpossibility in the region.

Andrea Santos provided a LatinAmerican example of mapping vulnerabilityanalysis in Brazil. Impacts of climate changevary across regions and communities. Ingeneral, these are more severe in regionsthat show high vulnerability on account of anumber of factors including social andclimatic vulnerabilities. Droughts anddesertification processes reduce the

6

availability of water, which adversely affectsagricultural practice and probably reducesthe quality of lives of populations in semi-aridregions.

This work presents an evaluation of socialand environmental vulnerabilities in six semi-arid districts of Bahia, Brazil. Themethodology was developed from theassessment of scenarios from theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) and forecasts of the Instituto Nacionalde Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) for regions ofBrazil.

The aim was to identify climatic,socioeconomic and environmental indicatorsto assess social vulnerabilities in the studieddistricts. Subsequently, a socio andenvironmental vulnerability index for eachrespective municipality was developed. As aresult, it was possible to identify whichmunicipalities in the semi-arid region ofBahia, Brazil are more prone to socialvulnerability in the face of climate change.

Fuad Mallick explored the issues of linkingdisaster education to development indeveloping countries. Changes in climatehave occurred throughout the history. Climatechange is not new. What is alarming is theincreased rate of change over a relativelyshort period of time. Governments andorganisations over the last few years haveincreasingly insisted that climate change isan issue that requires urgent attention. Globaltemperatures are on the rise as the naturalrate of change is compounded by humanactivity (UNFCCC 2007). Melting ice caps

and retreating glaciers have caused furthereustatic effects and at the current rate ofchange, there is risk of permanent inundationacross many low lying areas, particularly,those defined as small island developingstates. Consequences of climate changecoupled with increased global temperaturesare likely to have a greater adverse impact onthe poorest nations. Lack of awareness, poortechnology capability and transfer fromNorthern countries and vulnerability resultingfrom poverty and exposure to disasters arejust some of the contributory factors that putleast developed countries (LDCs) at risk anmake them more vulnerable. One seeminglyindirect but important factor that makespopulations in LDCs vulnerable is the lack ofeducation, particularly, in the context ofissues arising as a direct and/or indirectconsequence of climate change. This paperhighlights the importance of equitable,accessible and relevant education withindeveloping countries as it is argued thateducation is a fundamental and essentialcomponent in dealing with anthropogenicallyinfluenced climate change, from local toglobal scales.

Binod Shrestha focused on the problemof glacial lake overflows. The Himalayas inNepal extends to 800kms. Within this regionlie a number of lakes and tanks of glacial andtectonic origin. Researchers are predictingthat the Earth’s temperature will increases by2.3 to 5.6°C this century. A number ofgeologists believe that glacial melting due toclimate change will unleash pent-uppressures in the Earth's crust, causingextreme geological events such asearthquakes, tsunamis and volcaniceruptions. Nepal lies in a very high seismicregion and its history is already full of

devastating earthquakes. Climate changemultiplies the frequency and magnitude ofearthquakes occurrence. Increases intemperature simultaneously increases themelting of ice that amplifies lake enlargementand landslides that ultimately cause greaternumbers of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods(GLOF) and ice avalanches. Traditionally,essential infrastructure, principally dams andreservoirs were built without assessingclimate change and its consequences.However, in Nepal, tremendous efforts haverecently been initiated to reduce earthquakerisk.

Such efforts concern mitigation andpreparedness. Assessment of earthquakehazard and risks form the basis of planningand implementation of earthquake riskmanagement initiatives. Success of initiativeslargely depends upon a thoroughunderstanding of hazard and risk, bystakeholders including communities, theprivate sector and municipalities. Forexample, the Municipal Earthquake RiskManagement (MERMP) and SchoolEarthquake Safety Program (SESP) arebenefiting a great deal from the provision oftraining courses that were developed andimplemented for masons, technicians,contractors, and engineers with joint efforts ofmany organisations including communityrepresentatives. Several Community BasedDisaster Management (CBDM) programs arebeing undertaken in earthquake riskmanagement. Likewise, formal sectors areinvolved in implementing the Program forEnhancement of Emergence Response(PEER). All these programs, implemented byNSET, in partnership with local institutionshave significantly contributed in raisingearthquake awareness; enhancing local

7

capacity and preparing communities tobetter cope with earthquake emergencies.

The Department of Geography team fromDurham University led by Katie Oven andDavid Petley explored the relationshipbetween livelihoods and risk in the creationof landscape. The occurrence of fatallandslides in Nepal is increasing with time.Possible explanations for this rising trendinclude land-use change, population growthand civil war, each of which affectscommunity vulnerability. The impact ofclimate change on monsoon intensity, whichstrongly controls landslide occurrence inNepal is poorly understood, raising questionsregarding future vulnerability. To addressthese issues, the research presented heretakes an inter-disciplinary, bottom-upapproach and asks: 1. Who is vulnerable tolandslides? 2. Why do people occupylandslide prone areas? 3. How is riskperceived and understood? and 4. How dopeople respond to landslide hazard and risk?

The findings to date highlight the impact ofinfrastructure projects in rural Nepal. Withinthe Upper Bhote Koshi Valley a cleartransition has been seen over time in thesettlement pattern, rural livelihoods and thusthe occupation of landslide prone areas.Households were seen to occupy theseareas through lack of choice as their fixedassets tied them to a particular location; totake advantage of a roadside location; orthrough a lack of awareness of the riskassociated with slope failure. There was bothscientific and supra-natural reasoning

attributed as causes of landslide activity, withresponses reflecting Burton et al’s (1993)behaviour patterns. These include riskdenial/rejection; passive acceptance of risk;taking action to reduce further losses; orconsidering drastic changes in land use orlivelihood.

Reflecting upon these findings, we argue thatit is necessary to step away from thenormative agenda to consider the role ofhuman agency and recognise alternativeframings of risk. For the exposedcommunities themselves these risks arelargely concerned with human security,everyday needs and wellbeing. This doesnot mean we should negate themanagement of landslide hazards but ratherthat we should seek interventions whichreduce landslide risk whilst meeting the basicneeds of the exposed populations.

We are extremely pleased that all authorshave responded quickly to ensure a promptpublication. What is striking about thecontributions is that while they range over alarge series of contrasting case materials,they are united by a common core to buildresilience. A striking feature of thepresentations themselves was the relativeyouth of many of the presenters, indicatingthat institutional capacity is being built withinthe disaster community that, hopefully, willprovide stronger pre-disaster planning andpost-disaster response systems.

8

Climate Change and Variability,Energy and Disaster Management:

Accelerated climate change and increasingclimate variability present very serious globalrisks that demand an urgent global response(Stern, 2006). The risk types likely to occur areknown, but only in broad terms. That they areproduced by human action is accepted(IPCC, 2007). But their scale, severity,longevity and frequency are not known. Therisks generated by climate change andincreasing variability can be termed‘produced unknowns’, driven by humanactions and, at this juncture, with unknownoutcomes.

Produced unknowns are a category of‘wicked problems’ where answers areincomplete, contradictory and set againstchanging requirements (Richey, 2007). There

are no direct solutions to the problems ofproduced unknowns. But there areapproaches that can build effective responsesto produced unknowns. That shift is to a focuson preparedness which requires recognitionof the need for change and a change inmindset and behaviour. It is the nature of theshifts and the principles needed to shape theprocess that are evaluated in this paper. Thethreat to global welfare is real and there isrecognition within the sustainabledevelopment, climate change and riskreduction discourses of their common interestin risk reduction. What is lacking is a unifyingconceptual approach. Resilience can be usedas a tool for policy development for effectiveand comprehensive responses to produced

unknowns. Resilience is not argued as aparadigm but as a tool or common referencepoint. Conceptually, resilience can be used todevelop a set of principles for buildingresponses to produced unknowns.Adaptation is the starting point for thisprocess.

Conceptualising the Argument

Addressing climate change should be anintegral part of sustainable developmentpolicies, as should disaster risk reduction.This is not yet the case. However, a commonfeature of the sustainable development,climate change and disaster risk reductiondiscourses is doing things differently or

Produced Risks without Produced Solutions – Rethinking the Approach

Geoff O’Brien, Northumbria University

Professor Phil O’Keefe, Northumbria University and ETC UK

Joanne Rose, Northumbria University and ETC UK

Leanne Wilson, ETC UK

*Corresponding author e-mail and telephone:geoff.obrien@unn.ac.uk and +44 191 227 3745

phil.okeefe@unn.ac.uk and +44 191 227 3747

Introduction

9

change. Change is advocated as beingpurposeful and promoting positive outcomes,for example, to the energy system to mitigateclimate change and within sustainabledevelopment to enhance human well-being.This argues that it is desirable to develop anapproach that provides a bridge amongdisaster management, sustainable humandevelopment and climate change mitigationand adaptation. Change can often bedisruptive and, in such complex areas, theremay be fundamental barriers that do not allow,or militate against, change. Conceptually,resilience best captures the process ofpurposeful change in challengingcircumstances, as at its core resilienceexpresses the ability to respond to andrecover from disruptive challenges. Ingeography resilience was first addressed withreference to land systems (Blaikie andBrookfield, 1987). The resilience perspectiveas a response to disruptive challenges orcontextual change has emerged as acharacteristic of complex and dynamicsystems in a number of disciplines includingecology, (Holling, 1973), economics, (Arthur,1990), sociology (Adger, 2000) andpsychology (Bonnano, 2004). Resilience as aconcept is increasingly used within thedisaster management community as ametaphor both to describe responses of thoseaffected as well as responding systems(Manyena, 2006). A resilient system respondsand adjusts in ways that does not harm orjeopardise function. Resilience is not ascience, it is a process, using human capacityand ingenuity to mitigate vulnerabilities andreduce risks, both of which are sociallyconstructed. Resilience has its focus onresources and adaptive capacity and acts asa counter, or antidote, to vulnerability (O’Brienet al., 2006).

Though the concept of resilience is articulated

in all three discourses, it is defined within thedisaster risk reduction discourse. The UnitedNations International Strategy for DisasterReduction (UN/ISDR) defines resilience as:-

The capacity of a system, community orsociety potentially exposed to hazards toadapt, by resisting or changing in order toreach and maintain an acceptable level offunctioning and structure. This is determinedby the degree to which the social system iscapable of organizing itself to increase itscapacity for learning from past disasters forbetter future protection and to improve riskreduction measures(UN/ISDR, 2004, Annex 1).

This definition does not advocate a solutionor outcome but a process of learning andchange. Conceptually resilience is seen asthe overlap between the three discourses asshown in Figure 1.

Resilience is not argued as a fixed conceptbut as process. The shaded area in Figure 1can be seen as the resilience ‘tool-box’ whereactors from different discourses are able todraw on the principles established in thissubmission for policy development. There isalso an implicit feedback mechanism. Noneof the discourses are static and actors canfeedback their learning and experiences ofwhat works and why.

Resilience building enhances adaptivecapacity through learning that enablespositive responses to change; a proactive asopposed to a reactive approach. There isknowledge of this process, but only at asmall-scale. Scaling-up is an urgent priority,but local governance structures, in the main,are designed to deliver top-down solutions,not encourage bottom-up engagement.Within the technological context of mitigation,resilience building argues a different

Figure 1. Conceptualising Resilience

10

structural approach to energy systemdevelopment, one that is not wholly sourceand transmission focused, but has thecapacity to adapt to new sources whilemeeting the objectives of improving energysecurity and reducing energy poverty. Thechallenge is not a lack of technological know-how but whether or not there is sufficientpolitical will for purposeful interventions thatwould shift the focus of energy systemdevelopment.

Though resilience, conceptually, is beingargued within the sustainable development,disaster risk reduction and, more recently, theclimate adaptation discourses, there is littleevidence of meaningful progress. There isclear need for a policy framework built ondeveloping resilient social responses to copewith future challenges. Resilience, as a bridgebuilding tool between the discourses, requiresan enabling framework that encouragesbottom-up responses. A focus on building thecapacity of people, communities and thesystems that support human well-being areneeded. What is lacking is a clear, cohesiveand comprehensive framework for resiliencebuilding. The starting point for analysing thisproblem is within the sustainabledevelopment dialogue and this shows that thepre-dominant approach to sustainabledevelopment is governed by economicconsiderations. Solutions are dominated bytechnology, often without sufficient recognitionof technology as the cause of the problem.This is a weak approach to sustainabledevelopment with interpretations dominatedby the OECD (Organisation for EconomicCooperation and Development) perspectiveas shown in Figure 2.

(Giddings et al 2002; Hopwood et al 2005).The dominant view OECD has influenced thedevelopment of other global dialogues.

Climate Change

The United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) approachesclimate risk reduction from two perspectives;first, mitigation or reduction of greenhousegas emissions to stabilise concentration levelsat a safe level; second, adaptation, oradjustment to, climate driven change.Mitigation aims to reduce future climate risk.Adaptation aims to reduce current climaterisk. Mitigation as a strategy has dominatedthe climate debate, whilst adaptation hasreceived, comparatively, less attention. Thefocus on mitigation is not surprising and,similarly, focuses on technological solutions.The dominant OECD world-view has clearlysteered the way in which the Conventionaddresses the climate problem.

Though TAR did bring about a shift in views ofmany Convention signatories as shown by

arrow 1, the Fourth Assessment Report hasbrought about a global consensus that a realshift in thinking is needed as shown in arrow 2(IPCC, 2007). The culmination of this is theBali Roadmap agreed at COP 13 (Conventionof the Parties) (UNFCCC, 2007). This is thefirst hesitant step to finding a successor to the

Figure 3. Decision Grid

Figure 2. Mapping Sustainable Development

11

Kyoto Protocol, but more importantly itsignifies a global consensus of the need tofight climate change. The key areas in the BaliRoadmap are recognition that deep cuts inglobal emissions are needed to avoiddangerous climate change, measures toenhance forests, support for urgentimplementation of adaptation measures forpoorer nations along with disaster riskreductions measures and consideration ofmethods for removing obstacles and theprovision of financial and other incentives forscaling up the transfer of clean technologies.A more detailed agreement is expected forthe 2009 UN summit in Copenhagen.

Learning the Lessons

There are questions surrounding institutionalwillingness to change that will need answersin the run up to Copenhagen. Using energyas an example it is clear that fundamentalreform is needed. The dominant energymodel is technically complex and capitalintensive and has inherent technicalvulnerabilities (Perrow, 1999; Lovins andLovins, 1982). This is compounded bygeopolitical uncertainties of security of supplyand more recently to instrumental threats(O’Brien & O’Keefe, 2006).

Renewable resources are diffuse andintermittent and usually have lower energydensities. As opposed to supply on demand,a renewable approach requires “capture-when-available” and “store-until-required”strategies. There are exceptions, such ashydro-electric schemes, but typicallyrenewable systems function best at small-scales near to point of use. They are notfocused on a particular fuel type but useindigenous resources (O’Brien et al, 2007).Though a renewable approach is vulnerable

to source intermittency, its does not have thesame system vulnerabilities associated withthe dominant model. For example top-downinterconnected electrical systems arevulnerable to cascading faults, a regularoccurrence in Europe and North America.Small-scale and distributed systems can beinterconnected but the direction is typicallyhorizontal, a structure not prone to cascadingfaults. Use of indigenous resourcesminimises geopolitical risks. This implies avery different structure to the current systemas shown in Figure 4.

As Figure 4 suggests, there is considerableopportunity for a mix of scales and there is nosuggestion of total abandonment of large-scale systems provided they are appropriate.But what is clear is that technologicalinnovations are driving the development of

smaller and more flexible energy technologiesand users are increasingly using them drivenby fears of the vulnerability of sensitivesystems to power failure interruptions orprolonged failure (O’Brien et al, 2007). Thereare many renewable technologies and newtechnologies being developed and it ispossible that a new energy carrier such ashydrogen will become commonplace. Thequestion however, is what is needed to shiftthe direction energy system development to amore sustainable basis?

Without a shift in public attitudes towards theenvironment then technology cannot solvethe interrelated problems of energy andclimate change (IEA, 2003). Addressingenergy system development requirespurposeful intervention to guide thedevelopment as well as re-connection of the

Figure 4. Contrasting Models of Energy System Structure

12

user with the energy system. Where suchinterventions have been used the results havebeen impressive (O’Brien & O’Keefe, 2006).Reconnecting users encourages activeparticipation in tackling the problems we face.This is best realised in a top-down enablingenvironment that encourages bottom-upinnovation. This embeds resilience.

Disaster Management

To respond to current and ongoing risksrequires building resilience into adaptationand disaster response and preparednessplatforms. The Hyogo Declaration of theUnited Nations International Strategy forDisaster Reduction (UN/ISDR) recognises thelinkages between disaster risk reduction andsustainable development (UN/ISDR 2005).The Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) positsresilience as a key attribute in buildingcommunities able to withstand and cope withadverse events. The starting point forresilience building is vulnerability (Hyogo,2005).

Within the global discourses of reducing therisk of produced unknowns, resiliencebuilding, particularly for poorer and vulnerablecommunities, is seen as a means of helpingthem to help themselves. At the core of thisdiscourse is recognition, though not stated,that in the event of multiple simultaneousdisaster occurrences, response capacitywould be overwhelmed. The internationaldisaster community has called for resiliencebuilding along with the establishment ofdisaster management platforms. The focus ofdisaster management is risk reduction of allhazard categories; a generic or “all-hazards”approach (Quarantelli, 1992; Sikich, 1993;Alexander, 2005). This generic approach is afeature of disaster management in the

developed world and is effectively thedominant model. There is a considerableliterature describing this approach to disastermanagement. It can be characterised aslegally based, professionally staffed, wellfunded and organised. It aims for a return tonormality, that is, to re-establish conditions asthey were prior to the event (Perry andPeterson 1999; Alexander 2000, 2003;Schaafstal et al 2001; Paton and Jackson2002; Cassidy 2002; Perry and Lindell 2003).Table 1 typifies the dominant model. Thoughresilience and preparedness are embeddedwithin the terminology of the dominant modelthe reality is that the focus is on institutionalresilience and preparedness (O’Brien & Read,2005). This top-down structure isincompatible with the notion of resiliencebuilding. Furthermore, in many cases, it willnot be appropriate to promote a return to‘normal’ conditions, for example where people

are concentrated in unsafe slum areas thatare vulnerable to a range of hazards.

Recently the approach in Europe and NorthAmerica towards disaster management hasbeen skewed towards a securitisation agendastemming from the September 11th 2001terrorist attacks and in the USA and theLondon (2005) and Madrid (2004) bombattacks (O’Brien & Read, 2005; O’Brien 2006).It is the duty of government to protect thepublic. But too great an emphasis on onesource of threat can divert attention, both ofgovernment and the wider public, from otherpressing problems. The current focus andemphasis needs to change to reflect the wideragenda of preparedness. It is this aspect ofraising awareness, public education and riskcommunication that is lacking in the way thedominant model as typically practised. In theUK, for example, little has been done in thisrespect (O’Brien & Read, 2005). In terms of

Dominant Paradigm Comment

Isolated event Disasters usually regarded as unusual or unique events that can exceed coping capacity

Risk not normal Risk is socially constructed and risk management aims to reduce risk to within proscribed levels realised through governance structures

Techno-legal The legislative framework, regulatory system and the technologies used for risk reduction and disaster response

Centralised Realised through a formal system such as a government department or state funded agency

Low accountability Typically internalised

Post event planning Internal procedure for updating and validating plans based on lessons learned

Status Quo restored The overall aim – a return to normal

Table 1. Technocratic Model of Disaster Management

Source: Adapted from O’Brien & Read, 2005

13

the risk management chain an importantactor, the public, has been distanced. This isthe antithesis of resilience building.

Linking Disaster Management and Adaptation

Effective preparedness is a partnershipbetween government strategies andindividual and societal behaviours (Bermanand Redlener, 2006). Effective preparednessis the key to resilience building. Essential toeffective resilience building is an enablingenvironment that assigns local communitiesan active role as agents of change in theirown right such as assessing priorities,scrutinizing values, formulating policies andcarrying out programmes (Sen, 2005).

Applying this rationale more broadly todisaster policy response to climate changedepends on a number of factors, such asinstitutional and social capacity andwillingness to embed climate change riskassessment and management indevelopment strategies. These conditions donot yet exist universally. Reducing vulnerabilityis a key aspect of reducing climate changerisk. To do so requires a new approach toclimate change risk and a change ininstitutional structures and relationships(O’Brien et al, 2006). A focus on developmentthat neglects to enhance governance andresilience as a prerequisite for managingclimate change risks will, in all likelihood, dolittle to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

Where there has been a willingness to re-think responses to disastrous events theresults have been positive. For examplestorms in 1970 and 1991 in Bangladeshresulted in deaths of 500,000 and 138,000respectively. Following the 1970 disaster, thegovernment along with agencies initiated the

Bangladesh Cyclone PreparednessProgramme, a bottom-up programme aimedat reducing the vulnerability of communitiesand resilience building through social learningprocesses. This strengthened self-helpcapacities based on indigenous knowledgeof vulnerabilities and using participatorymethods to develop programmes such ascommunity training in disaster preparedness(Yodmani, 2001). This exhibits willingness atthe institutional level to undertake a newapproach and to learn from experience. Thisis institutional learning. Examples of themeasure implemented are Early WarningSystems, evacuation procedures and shelterprovision. In the 1991 cyclone fatality rateswere 3.4 percent in areas with access tocyclone shelters compared to 40 percent inareas without access to shelters. Because ofimproved preparedness during another

strong storm in 1994, three quarters of amillion people were safely evacuated andonly 127 died (Schultz et al, 2005; Akhand,2003).

Institutional learning explores how learningtakes place in response to changingconditions. There are two forms of learningthat are applicable to disaster management;single-loop and double-loop (Argyris andSchon,1996). Single-loop learning oradaptation is the adaptation of newknowledge to existing frameworks ofobjectives and causal beliefs. In essence, thisis learning to do something better. Double-loop learning includes single loop learningbut also questions the framework of beliefs,norms and objectives. It is about re-thinkingthe way things are done.

Single-loop learning is a predominant

Adaptation Paradigm Comment

Part of development Adaptation is not an add-on but should be an integral part of societal development

Risk of disaster is an Climate change and variability is a known category of natural everyday condition hazards amplified and accelerated by anthropogenic

activities that will occur

Social capacity Enhancing the ability of societies to both respond to hazards and adjust to change

Participatory Learning to enhance capacity

Transparent Undertaken in an enabling environment

Pre disaster plans Aimed at prevention

Transformation Move society to a new set of conditions – enhance coping capacity and improve baseline condition, for example, decrease levels of poverty

Table 2. Characterising Adaptation as Disaster Risk Reduction

Source: Adapted from O’Brien, 2006

14

characteristic of disaster management withinthe developed world (O’Brien, 2006; O’Brien& Read, 2005). Whilst this embeds resiliencewithin the disaster management function andacts to improve response capability andinstitutional capacity, there is a danger thatthis internal focus will not challenge culturallyaccepted beliefs, associated precautionarynorms set out in laws or codes of practice andcustom and practice. Failure to make thesechanges contributes to disasters (Turner andPidgeon, 1977).

Learning can change the way in whichresponses to threats are constructed.Adaptation to current and ongoing climaterisks can be more effectively developed withinan enabling framework that recognises that

local knowledge of vulnerabilities is thestarting point for developing effectiveresponses. Resilience building not onlystrengthens self-help capacity to respond tothreats but also the capacity to plan for andundertake changes that will reduce risks.Planning prior to disaster occurrence can useadaptation to construct an effective responseparadigm. This is illustrated in Table 2.

Constructing a global response model to thechallenges of adaptation that embedsresilience argues for both top-down andbottom-up perspectives. The starting point forplanning adaptation responses is vulnerability.Embedding resilience argues for a pre-disaster focus to ensure that effectiveresponses are developed and that societies

are able to adjust to change and recover fromdisruption.

Adaptation will be challenging. It is a long-term and costly process likely to result indisruption, for example, the relocation ofpeople and infrastructure away fromhazardous areas. In terms of scale adaptationrequires decisions from individuals, firms andcivil society, to public bodies andgovernments at local, regional and nationalscales. Building adaptive capacity will includecommunicating climate change information,building awareness of potential impacts,maintaining well-being, protecting property orland, maintaining economic growth, orexploiting new opportunities. Table 3 bringstogether those aspects of the dominant andadaptation paradigms and develops a set ofprinciples for adaptation planning andresilience building.

Failing to build a meaningful global responseto climate change risks an unbalanced globalresponse. Figure 5 illustrates that linkingvulnerability, societal resilience and burden-sharing provides a framework for learning atall levels that has the potential to lead to a fairand equitable climate agreement.

Concluding Comments

There is a considerable evidence base thatdisaster risk is increasing and impacting themost vulnerable. However the ‘democratic’nature of climate change and variabilitymeans that all populations throughout theworld will be impacted in one way or another.Adaptation to the consequences of climatechange and variability is an urgent priority forpublic policy. The challenge for public policyis on many levels; nationally within thedeveloped world to develop sustainableresponses; within the developing world to

Table 3. Pre-Disaster Planning Principles for Adaptation

Pre-Disaster Planning Principles Comment

Sustainable Development An approach that focuses on reducing risk both now and in the future

Risk Avoidance Developments should be evaluated from a risk reduction perspective

Embedded in Policy and Practices Adaptation should be normalised

Distributed to the appropriate level It is both top down and bottom up

Shared responsibility The basis for renewing the preparedness partnership between government and people

Learning from scientific evidence, All knowledge is important, but of equal indigenous knowledge and importance is effective communicationexperience and dissemination

Adjusting to changes A recognition that the future may be very different

Organisational and Thinking differently and learning about how we Social Learning approach problems related to adaptation should be

the norm

Source: Adapted from O’Brien, 2006

15

enhance institutional and social capacity fordisaster risk reduction; and for theinternational community to ensure thatdevelopmental policies are aimed at workingto meet internationally agreed goals both forpoverty reduction and climate risk reduction.

The agreement between UN/ISDR andUNFCCC to collaborate is welcome. Thoughthere are concerns about the appropriatenessof the dominant model of disastermanagement as an appropriate vehicle forresilience building, recent changes in UKgovernment thinking in the National SecurityStrategy, indicate the potential for positivechange (BBC, 2008). The new approachinvolves improving local resilience, buildingand strengthening local capacity andengaging households in preparednessstrategies. This is the right rhetoric and is

welcome. The challenge will be turning therhetoric into reality.

Responding to produced unknowns driven bya changing climate requires resiliencebuilding. Resilience building is needed in pre-disaster planning and sustainabledevelopment in order to develop the socialand institutional capacity to respond toproduced unknowns. Resilience building is aprocess that aims to reduce harm, both nowand in the future. The focus of resilience is onwell-being. Resilience building is a learningprocess at all levels. Institutional learningempowers at the local level and strengthensgovernance. This is negotiation notimposition. Responding to the threat ofproduced unknowns require both current andfuture strategies. Strategies are needed toadapt to disruptive challenges generated by a

changing climate. Strategies are needed toshape energy policy to minimise future risks.A focus on resilience recognises that there isno steady-state or end result. It is processwithout end that has, at its core, the notionsof entitlements and governance.

Figure 5. Linking Concepts for Climate Risk Reduction

16

1. Adger, W. (2000) Social and ecologicalresilience: are they related? Progress inHuman Geography 24(3): 347-364

2. Akhand M. H. (2003) ‘DisasterManagement and Cyclone WarningSystems in Bangladesh’, in Zschau, J. andKuppers, A. N. (Eds), Early WarningSystems for Natural Disaster Reduction,Springer, Berlin, pp. 49–64.

3. Alexander D. (2000) Scenario methodologyfor teaching principles of emergencymanagement, Disaster Prevention andManagement Volume 9 Number 2 pp.89±97. Emerald

4. Alexander D. (2003) Towards thedevelopment of standards in emergencymanagement training and education,Disaster Prevention and Management,Volume 12 Number 2 pp. 113-123.Emerald

5. Argyris C. Schon D. A. (1996)Organizational learning II. Theory, Method,and Practice. Reading MA: Addison-Wesley

6. Arthur, W. (1999) Complexity and theeconomy, Science 284(5441): 107-109

7. BBC (2008) “Brown unveils securitystrategy” BBC News Online, 19th March2008. Available at:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7303846.stm

8. Berman D. A. Redlener I. (2006) NationalPreparedness Planning: The HistoricalContext and the Current State of the USPublic’s Readiness, Journal of InternationalAffairs, Spring/Summer, Vol 59(2) 87-105.

Columbia University, New York.

9. Blaikie PM & Brookfield H (1987) LandDegradation and Society, Longman,London

10. Bonnano, G. (2004) Loss, trauma andhuman resilience: have we underestimatedthe human capacity to thrive afterextremely aversive events? AmericanPsychologist 59(1): 20-28

11. Burton I. Diringer E. Smith. (2006)Adaptation to Climate Change: InternationalPolicy Options. A report for the Preparedfor the Pew Center on Climate Change.Available at:http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/PEW_Adaptation.pdf

12. Cassidy T. (2002) Problem-solving style,achievement motivation, psychologicaldistress and response to a simulatedemergency, Counselling PsychologyQuarterly, Vol.15, No.4, pp.325 –332. Taylorand Francis

13. Giddings, B. Hopwood, W. O’Brien, G.(2002) Environment, Economy andSociety: Fitting them together intoSustainable Development, SustainableDevelopment, Vol. 10 pp 187–196. JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment,UK.

14. Holling, C.S. (1973) Resilience and stabilityof ecological systems. Annual Review ofEcology and Systematics 4, 1–23. Availableat:http://www.jstor.org/view/00664162/di975347/97p0062a/0

15. Hopwood, W. Mellor, M. O’Brien, G. (2005)

Sustainable Development: MappingDifferent Approaches, SustainableDevelopment, Vol. 13, pp 38-52. JohnWiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment,UK.

16. IPCC (2001) Third Assessment Report(TAR): Impacts, Adaptation andVulnerability. Available at:http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/

17. IPCC (2007) Climate Change 2007:Synthesis Report: Summary forPolicymakers. Available at:http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf

18. IPCC (2007) Summary for Policymakers. In:Climate Change 2007: Mitigation.Contribution of Working Group III to theFourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange [B. Metz, O.R. Davidson, P.R.Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)],Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.Available at:http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg3/ar4-wg3-spm.pdf

19. Lovins, A. B. Lovins, L. H. (1982) BrittlePower: Energy Strategy for NationalSecurity, Brick House Publishing, USA.Available at:- http://reactor-core.org/downloads/Brittle-Power-Parts123.pdf

20. O’Brien, G. (2006), UK EmergencyPreparedness – A step in the rightdirection? Journal of International Affairs,Vol. 59 (2) pp 63 –85. Columbia University,New York, USA.

References

17

21. O’Brien, G. O’Keefe, P. (2006) The future ofnuclear power in Europe: a response,International Journal of EnvironmentalStudies, Vol 63 pp 121-130. Routledge,Taylor and Francis, UK.

22. O’Brien, G. O’Keefe, P. Rose, J. Wisner, B.(2006) Climate Change and DisasterManagement, Disasters, 30 (1) pp 64-80.Blackwell, UK.

23. O’Brien, G. Read, P. (2005) Future UKEmergency Management: New Wine, OldSkin? Disaster Prevention andManagement, Vol. 14(3) pp 353-361.Emerald, UK.

24. O'Brien, G. O'Keefe P. Rose J. (2007)Energy, Poverty and Governance,International Journal of EnvironmentalStudies, Vol. 64 (5) pp 607–618.Routledge, Taylor and Francis, UK

25. Paton D. Jackson D. (2002) Developingdisaster management capability: anassessment centre approach, DisasterPrevention and Management, Volume 11Number 2 pp. 115±122. Emerald

26. Perrow C. (1999) Normal Accidents: Livingwith High-Risk Technologies, PrincetonUniversity Press, USA

27. Perry R. W. Lindell M. K. (2003)Preparedness for Emergency Response:Guidelines for the Emergency PlanningProcess, Disasters, 27(4): 336–350

28. Perry R. W. Peterson D. M. (1999) Theimpacts of disaster exercises onparticipants, Disaster Prevention andManagement, Volume 8 Number 4 pp.241±254. Emerald

29. Quarantelli E. L. (1992) The case for ageneric rather than agent-specificapproach to disasters, Disaster

Management, Vol. 2, pp. 191-6

30. Richey T. (2007) Wicked problems:Structuring social messes withmorphological analysis, SwedishMorphological Society. Available at:http://www.swemorph.com/pdf/wp.pdf

31. Schaafstal A. M., Johnston J. H. Oser R. L.(2001) Training teams for emergencymanagement, Computers in HumanBehavior 17 pp 615–626. Pergamon

32. Schultz J.M. Russell J. Espinel Z. (2005)Epidemiology of Tropical Cyclones: Thedynamics of Disaster, Disease andDevelopment, Epidemiological Reviews,27:21-35. USA. Available at:http://epirev.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/reprint/27/1/21

33. Sen A. (2005) The Argumentative Indian.Chapter 11. Farrar, Strauss and Giroux,New York.

34. Sikich G.W. (1993) It Can’t Happen Here:All Hazards Crisis Management Planning,PennWell Books, Tulsa, OK.

35. Smit B. Wandel J. (2006) Adaptation,adaptive capacity and vulnerability, GlobalEnvironmental Change, Vol 19 pp 282-292.Elsevier

36. Stern N. (2006) Stern Review: TheEconomics of Climate Change, HMTreasury, London. UK. Available at:http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm

37. Turner B.A. and N.F. Pidgeon (1997) Man-made disasters. Second edition.Butterworth-Heinemann, Oxford.

38. UN/IDSR (2006) Statement to the twenty-fifth session of the Subsidiary Body for

Scientific and Technological Advice(SBSTA 25), Nairobi, Kenya. Available at:http://unfccc.int/files/adaptation/sbsta_agenda_item_adaptation/application/pdf/isdr_statement.pdf

39. UN/ISDR (2004) Living with Risk: A globalreview of disaster reduction initiatives,UN/ISDR, New York. Available at:http://www.unisdr.org/eng/about_isdr/bd-lwr-2004-eng.htm

40. UN/ISDR (2005) World Conference onDisaster Reduction, Hyogo Declaration,paragraph 2, 18-22 January 2005, Kobe,Hyogo, Japan. Available at:http://www.unisdr.org/wcdr/intergover/official-doc/L-docs/Hyogo-declaration-english.pdf

41. UNFCC (2007) Report of the Conference ofthe Parties on its thirteenth session, held inBali from 3 to 15 December 2007.FCCC/CP/2007/6/Add.1. Available at:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.pdf

42. UNFCCC (1992) United Nations, NewYork, USA. Available at:http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf

43. Yodmani S. (2001) Disaster RiskManagement and Vulnerability Reduction:Protecting the Poor, Paper delivered at the“Social Protection Workshop 6: ProtectingCommunities—Social Funds and DisasterManagement” under the Asia and PacificForum on Poverty: Reforming Policies andInstitutions for Poverty Reduction held atthe Asian Development Bank, Manila, 5-9February 2001.

18

Climate Change and Pesticides in Nepal: Adverse Effects?

This paper outlines an initial study on theimpact of pesticide use in Nepal. It focuseson rice production from 6 different farms inthe Panchkhal Valley. It outlines the results ofthis initial survey and relates the results toagricultural intensification under climatechange in Nepal. It must be emphasised thatthis is a preliminary study.

In this study, ‘risk’ is considered in the contextof pesticide residues found in rice. Itincorporates hazard as the toxicity of residuesand exposure through consumption. Theseare assessed via a comparison of residuelevels and maximum residue levels (MRLs) ,followed by calculating admissible dailyintakes (ADIs). Unless stated otherwise,residues were assessed using the averageconcentration level across all samples inorder to provide an overall view of thepesticide usage scene in this study.

Rice is the primary staple food group of theNepalese population, providing at least 50%of the daily calorific intake supplied by cereals

to individuals (Pokhrel, 1997). Nepal ischaracterised by a predominantly agrariansociety. This is reflected in the fact thatagriculture is Nepal’s primary economicactivity (Atreya, 2006), contributingapproximately 41% towards the total grossdomestic product (GDP) per annum (Pokhrel,1997). Over the last couple of decades,agricultural practice in Nepal has shifted fromtraditional labour-intensive pest controltowards a growing trend of synthetic pesticideapplication to boost yield outputs (Atreya,2006; Atreya, 2007; Palikhe, 2005; and Blaikieet al., 2001). Types of pesticide used,however, are often significantly more toxicthan those used in Western countries andmore likely to adversely affect the environmentand human health (Palikhe, 2005).

Extensive investigation of literature hasexposed a severe lack of epidemiologicalresearch specifically concerning public healthin Nepal related to diseases resulting fromchronic exposure to pesticide contaminants inrice. An in depth literary review also found a

distinct paucity of peer-review literaturespecifically quantifying pesticide residues inrice from Nepal to assess chronic healthexposure risks to the general population. Thisis probably a result of a complex range offactors, including ongoing political instabilityand lack of access to many of the ruralregions due to conflict (Economist, 2008;Economist, 2007; and Deraniyagala, 2005).The alarming rate at which highly toxicpesticides are being used within farming(Palikhe, 2005), indicates a real need forresearch into the toxicity of residues, likely tobe consumed by the majority of thepopulation over the long-term.

In the global context, synthetic pesticide usein farming practice since the 1950s has led tochemical dependence in agriculturalproduction of unprecedented proportions.Modern agricultural production methodsbased on chemical inputs are simultaneouslyassociated with high outputs. Chemicals usedto enhance food production and their adverseimpact on human health as well as to the

Z. Gadema*

School of Applied Sciences, Northumbria University, Ellison Building, Ellison Place, Newcastle. NE1 8ST. UK.

*Corresponding author email: zaina.gadema@unn.ac.uk

Introduction

19

environment, have gained increasingprominence in the public sphere (Carvalho etal., 2006).

Nepal, one of the poorest countries in theworld, classified as a least developedcountry (LDC) and often thought of asharbouring some of the world’s most pristineenvironments, is witnessing a growing trendin pesticide use (Atreya, 2006; Atreya, 2007;Palikhe, 2005 and Blaikie et al., 2001). AsNepal is predominantly an agrarian society(ADB, 2004 and Blaikie et al., 2001),pesticide use in Nepal gives reason forsignificant concern regarding the potentialimpact to health of the general populationconsuming contaminated produce andquality of the environment on which farmersrely to maintain food and livelihood security.

The heterogeneous nature of Nepal’stopography limits access to resources andbasic infrastructure (Pandey et al., 2001).Many subsistence farmers in Nepal have alsobeen limited by conflict, poor infrastructure,and need to reduce risk and vulnerability toenvironmental disasters associated withclimatic change in order to maintainsustainable livelihood securityencompassing, most urgently, food security(Erenstein et al., 2007; Bhandari and Grant,2007 and ADB, 2004).

Both China and India are the largestproducer countries of synthetic pesticides inAsia (many of which do not meetinternationally recognised safety standards)(Atreya, 2007; EJF, 2003, EJF, 2002;Ecobichon, 2001; IOMC, 1998). Pesticideuse in agricultural production within the Teraiand neighbouring Mid-Hills is prevalent dueto a number of factors, including proximity toIndia. Furthermore, an open and porousborder with India facilitates lucrative trade inunregulated generic pesticides. Greater

road infrastructure in comparison to otherregions and the presence of the majority ofprivate pesticide resellers (IOMC, 1998) alsocontribute to considerable economic trade ofpesticides in the Terai and Panchkhalregions. Pesticides from India are notsubject to import license regulations raisingconcerns as to the quality, volatility of activeingredients and toxicity of many of chemicalformulations (IOMC, 1998).

The attraction of ‘quick-fix’ solutions for pesteradication in farmer fields and ‘miracle’,high-yield seeds has significantlytransformed the way in which many farmerscultivate their crops (Atreya, 2007 andPaudyal, 2007). Poor regulation, lack ofgovernance and education in the dangersand need of appropriate application ofchemical pesticides have cumulativelyassisted sustained unregulated trade ofpesticides across the reasonably porousborders of India and China (ADB, 2004).

Agriculture in Nepal

Nepal has a nascent industrial basedominated by the agro-processing sector,coupled with widespread dependence onsubsistence farming for livelihood security.Subsequently, Nepal is often characterisedas a predominantly isolated agrarian society,reliant mostly on subsistence orientatedfarming with low productive agriculturaloutput (NSSD, 2001 and New Agriculturalist,2007).

There are 3 distinct agro-ecological zonesdividing the landscape of Nepal that run inparallel bands from east to west. Thesedistinctive landscapes and differingelevations mean that climatic variation andcrop diversity in Nepal is high. Only about25% of the total area is cultivable; another

33% is forested; most of the rest ismountainous (Pariyar et al., 2001).

The Terai is the southern most agro-ecologicalband, bordering India. Its topographicalnature is shaped by low-lying, flat land, withelevation not above 750m, forming anextension of the Indo-Gangetic Plain. Assuch, the Terai has the greatest agriculturalpotential in Nepal. However, recently, due tosevere inundation, deforestation, andsubsequent episodic droughts, the TeraiPlains have experienced a series of poorharvests, leading to food aid reliance (WFP,2007).

The Panchkhal Valley lies within the denselypopulated Mid-Hills region, forming part of theKathmandu Valley, home to fertile valleys,predominantly utilised for agriculturalproduction, growing a wide variety of crops,including staples such as rice, maize, milletand root vegetables. These subsistencecrops are increasingly grown as cash crops.Rice is grown as the main food crop, rice,being the staple food of the Nepalese diet.Agricultural surpluses are marketed widely,particularly, to the urban Kathmandupopulation and surrounding provinces. Somerice outputs are also supplied to food-deficient hill areas (ADB, 2004). Land parcelsare small, used primarily for subsistencefarming, typically being smaller in the Mid-Hills(0.5 hectares) than in the Terai (around 1.5hectares) (NSSD, 2001).

The Challenge of Pesticide Use in Nepal

Since Nepal is not a producer of pesticides,all products are imported. Despite lack ofdata, it is thought that a steady increase ofpesticide use has entered the agriculturalsector (Bhakat, 2005) with an increase of

20

imported costs equating to an annual growthrate of U.S.$2.1 million, the greatest use beingon vegetables and cash crops in theKathmandu Valley areas, served with a goodroad network and infrastructure, enablingaccess to markets (Kansakar, 2002).

In Nepal, farming of crops is widelyunderstood to be subject to non-judicious useof pesticides:

“All types of pesticides are not only repeatedlyused but also carelessly used.”Source: (Bhakat, 2005, p.6)

Non-essential use of pesticides is becomingincreasingly common, exacerbated by theadvertising of pesticides as a panacea toagricultural difficulty, farmers fearing croplosses and the demand for more attractive,immediate and prolonged results in cropquality (Atreya, 2006; Bhakat, 2005 andKansakar, 2002). Presently, approximately319 types of pesticides have been registeredfor use under the Pesticides Act (1991) andRules (1993) of Nepal. A total of 3450 trainedresellers, of which, 2543, are licensedresellers have been recorded (Bhakat, 2005).

Pesticides sold in Nepalese markets includeinsecticides, fungicides, herbicides,rodenticides and acaricides, often sold underdifferent trade names. OCs, OPPs, syntheticpyrethoids and carbamates are widely usedinsecticides, with common forms traded asEndosulfan, Acephate, Chlorphyrifphos,Quinalphos, Dichlorovos and Phorates(Paudyal, 2007). A study by Paudyal (2007)found almost all the fungicides, herbicides,bactericides, acaricides and seed treatmentpesticides sold were fell under the WHO non-hazardous category (Paudyal, 2007).However, one in five insecticides used inNepal are categorised as highly hazardous,

having a high oral or dermal lethal effect andless than half are categorised as moderatelyhazardous, see Figure 1, (Paudyal, 2007).

Over 71% of the population is employed inagricultural production, which as a stand-alone sector contributes approximately 38% ofthe total annual GDP (WHO, 2005).Approximately 75% of the population isinvolved in rice farming for at least six monthsof the year (Pokhrel, 1997). Manysmallholders are women, the proportion ofwhich is growing as men increasingly migrateto urban areas to generate income. In Nepal,remittances, cash crops, and urbanisation aresignificant factors shaping food, livelihoodsecurity, and poverty alleviation (HMG, 2005).

Cash crops make up 30% of agriculturalproduction (New Agriculturalist, 2007). Boththe large proportion of agricultural productiontowards total GDP and high employmentwithin the low productive agricultural sectorare two key indicators of development. Basedon given criteria, Nepal has some of thehighest figures in terms of poverty even

among poorer countries of the world (WHO,2005).

Dependency by rural people on traditionalsubsistence farming methods is thought to bethe chief cause of poverty and environmentaldegradation (Bhandari and Grant, 2007).Additionally, overpopulation and growingpopulation rates are contributory factorsattributed to the degeneration of scarce landresources, high unemployment, greaterpoverty and overall economic decline. Theseelements in turn, lead to livelihood insecurity,a primary cause of socio-economicdeprivation and political instability(Deraniyagala, 2005 and Seddon andAdhikari, 2003).

Figure 1- Hazard Level of Registered Insecticides in Nepal

Source: Adapted from (PRMD, 2004), cited by Paudyal (2007)

21

Methodology

Collection of primary matter (rice) wasundertaken at the end of the harvest period inNepal (October, 2007) as the majority of riceis sold to the general population during thefinal stages of harvest. All samples weretaken from different locations in thePanchkhal Valley (see plate 2), which servesmuch of the urban population of Kathmanduand surrounding areas with agriculturalproduce. Assessment of chronic exposure tothe general population was then madepossible by analysing pesticide residuesdetected in rice samples.

The methodological approach for residueextraction and analysis encompassed 7broad steps, outlined in Figure 2 (Gadema, 2008).

Main Findings

Pesticide residues were detected in all 6locations, translating to 95% of rice samples(18 out of 19) comprising pesticide residues,varying in toxicity classification from notacutely toxic to extremely hazardous. 2 highlypersistent and equally toxic insecticides,Methyl Parathion and DDT, which regularlyfeatured in both the literature review andNepalese Government studies of foodcommodities, were detected. In total, 13different pesticides, including broad-spectrum fungicides and insecticides werefound. These encompassed, Cypermethrin,Deltamethrin, Maneb, Myclobutanil,Pentachloroanisole, Aldrin, Chlorpyrifos,DDE/DDT, Edifenphos, Endosulfan, Firponil,Monocrotophos, and Methyl Parathion.Information regarding each of the detectedresidues in terms of environmental behaviour

and persistence, class, and toxicity to health,is outlined below in Box 1. With respect toLD50 values (lethal dose for 50% of a ratpopulation), all refer to oral intakes andmg/kg body weight unless otherwise stated,stipulated by WHO/FAO (2001) and (2005).Toxicity classifications refer to WHO (2005)evaluations.

Plate 1 Map of Nepal

Source: (SANOG, 2004)

Panchkhal Valley:Intensivelyfarmed areasupplying thelocal and urbanpopulation ofKathmandu

Figure 2

7 Step Methodolgical Approach

22

Box 1 Details Characterising Toxicity, Action and Persistence of Detected Pesticide Residues

Cypermethrin: Cypermethrin is a broad-spectrum synthetic pyrethroid, moderately toxic and acts as a stomach and contactpesticide by interfering with receptors in the nervous system. It is photostable (not volatile) and quickly degradeswithin the environment with a half-life of 2-4 weeks. Chronic exposure includes brain and locomotory symptoms,polyneuropathy and immuno suppression. In terms of acute toxicity, LD50 is 82. Views differ as to thecarcinogenicity of Cypermethrin, however, it is classified by the U.S. EPA as a weak category C, carcinogen.

Deltamethrin: Deltamethrin is a moderately toxic broad-spectrum pyrethroid that acts through ingestion and by contact. It is notvolatile, and can persist from 1-2 weeks within the environment, less if in direct sunlight. It is a suspected endocrinedisruptor. Especially characteristic of Deltamethrin poisoning (unlike other pyrethroids) are rolling convulsions. Thesequence of signs of Deltamethrin poisoning is clearly identifiable, progressing from chewing, salivation and pawing,to rolling convulsions, tonic seizures and death (ETN Deltamethrin, 1995). LD50 is <5000 in aqueous solution.Symptoms of poisoning in humans include: ataxia (loss of coordination); convulsions; muscle fibrillation (twitching);paralysis; and diarrhoea.

Maneb: Maneb is a broad-spectrum dithiocarbamate, often available as a wettable powder, flowable concentrate, and inready to use formulations. It is easily broken down within the environment (with a half-life of 12-36 days) and has verylow persistence. It has low acute toxicity (LD50 is >5000) and is not easily accumulated in the human body.However, target organs affected by Maneb are the heart, kidneys and thyroid gland. In the context of chronicexposure, Maneb is carcinogenic, tetragenic and a suspected endocrine disruptor.

Myclobutanil: Myclobutanil a broad-spectrum fungicide pyrethroid with low persistence in the environment. In humans,Myclobutanil is classified as not slightly hazardous (LD50 is 136->4.42 g/kg in corn oil), but it is neurotoxic, tetragenicand a suspected endocrine disruptor.

Pentachloroanisole: Pentachloroanisole is a fungicide and POP, an aromatic chlorinated compound that is highly persistent within theenvironment. Human health effects are not known, although, toxicity via bio-accumulation in fatty tissues has beenconfirmed in studies of Channel Catfish (Ictalurus punctatus) and Rainbow Trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss).

Aldrin: Aldrin is an OC, highly persistent within the environment with high potential for bio-accumulation. Toxicity to humansincludes carcinogenesis, reproductive and developmental toxicity. It is highly neurotoxic and extremely hazardous interms of acute toxicity with an LD50 of 37-167.

Chlorpyrifos: Chlorpyrifos is an OPP insecticide with broad-spectrum effects, is moderately toxic, acts as a contact poison, with someaction as a stomach poison, is neurotoxic (causes cholinesterase inhibition) and is a suspected endocrine disruptor.LD50 is 2000. It is available in granule, wettable powder, dustable powder, and emulsifiable concentrate form. It iscarcinogenic, tetragenic, and neurotoxic, acting as a cholinesterase inhibitor. It is moderately persistent within theenvironment with a half-life in soil between 60 and 120 days, although, this is dependent on pH, soil type and climate.

DDE/DDT: DDE/DDT is an insecticide and POP, highly persistent with the environment, with a half-life of around 15 years. It is acontact toxin but can affect non-target species. DDT is moderately toxic but can bio-accumulate within fatty tissuesand biomagnify, becoming more toxic over time with an LD50 of 150-420. It is carcinogenic, highly neurotoxic, asuspected endocrine disruptor and tetragenic. It is a cheap, easily manufactured and an effective toxic insecticide. Itis widely available in developing countries, although it is banned or restricted for use in 56 countries due to its highlytoxic and persistent characteristics.

23

Box 1 Details Characterising Toxicity, Action and Persistence of Detected Pesticide Residues.. cont

Edifenphos: Edifenphos is an OPP insecticide with low persistence in the environment, classified as highly hazardous with anLD50 of 150. Edifenphos has been found to have accumulation properties and high mortality in mammals, acts as acholinesterase inhibitor, is highly neurotoxic and is a suspected endocrine disruptor as well as a suspected tetragen.It is not registered for use or manufactured in the U.S.

Endosulfan: Endosulfan is an insecticide and POP, highly persistent within the environment, has an LD50 value of 80 butclassified as moderately hazardous. It is highly neurotoxic, carcinogenic, is a suspected endocrine disruptor andtetragen. It is banned for use and severely restricted in many countries. Although classified as moderately toxic, in1991, 31 people died in Sudan after consuming food contaminated with Endosulfan (EJF, 2003).

Fipronil: Fipronil is a persistent OC insecticide, however, is not volatile within the environment. It has significantbioaccumulation potential and has high neurotoxicity in rats and dogs with an LD50 of 92. Fipronil is a ‘newgeneration’ broad-spectrum insecticide, acting by disrupting normal nerve influx transmission (Hainzl et al., 1996). Itis a suspected endocrine disruptor, possible carcinogen and potential ground water contaminant.

Monocrotophos: Monocrotophos is an OPP, broad-spectrum insecticide, not specifically persistent within the environment (a shorthalf-life between 7-14 days). Monocrotophos is a cholinesterase inhibitor, possibly carcinogenic, tetragenic and apossible endocrine disruptor. It is classified as highly hazardous due to its acute toxicity (LD50 is 14) and neurotoxicproperties, is banned for use in many countries and included in PIC procedure of the Stockholm Convention.

Mehtyl Parathion: Methyl Parathion is a commonly used insecticide in LDCs, often known by the trade name Folidol. It is a non-systemic OPP, broad-spectrum insecticide, extremely hazardous (LD50 is 3), acting by killing insects upon contact,respiratory, or digestive action (EJF, 2002). Persistence within the environment varies, ranging from 100%degradation within 2 weeks to a half-life of 175 days (EJF, 2002). It is a cholinesterase inhibitor with chronic healtheffects likely to be neurotoxic in nature. In humans, cumulative effects through exposure to Methyl Parathion areprobable.

Hazard and Exposure

In terms of toxicity to the general population,dose is a significant factor as singleexposures to residues above MRLs isunlikely to result in long-term health effects.Frequent exposure to residue concentrationsexceeding MRLs and ADIs, (particularly, lowADIs with high exceedance of certainpesticides) are more likely to adversely affecthuman health (Low et al., 2004). MRLs arewidely used in peer-review literature, nationaland international reports, to determinemaximum concentrations of certain

pesticides legally permitted within variousfood commodities to reflect whetherregulatory standards are breached or not.Thus, those pesticide residues that occurredat levels above MRLs, being Aldrin,Cypermethrin and Maneb, are of regulatoryconcern. Table 1 showshow toxicity relates tohumans, outlines the principal health effectsof all detected pesticides and highlightsabove/below MRL and ADI levels (based onmean residue concentrations across allsamples)in this study.

Source: (INCHEM, 2007 and PAN, 2007)

24

Table 1 Pesticide Residues Detected, Toxicity Hazard, and Chronic Exposure

Detected Pesticide(f) = fungicideall others are insecticides WHO Toxicity Hazard Class Toxicity to Humans Above/Below MRL Above/Below ADI

Cypermethrin (f) Moderate Possible carcinogen Above Below

Deltamethrin (f) Moderate Suspected Endocrine Disruptor Below Below

Maneb (f) Not Acute Carcinogenic Above BelowTetragenic

Myclobutanil (f) Slightly TetragenicSuspected Endocrine Disruptor Below Below

Pentachloroanisole (f) No Info Bio-accumulationPossible carcinogen No MRL NO ADI

Aldrin Extremely CarinogenicPossibly TetragenicSuspected Endocrine Disruptor Above Above

Chlorpyrifos Moderate Possibly TetragenicSuspected Endocrine DisruptorCholinesterase Inhibitor Below Below

DDE/DDT Moderate TetragenicCarcinogenicSuspected Endocrine Disruptor Below Below

Edifenphos Highly Cholinesterase Inhibitor Below Below

Endosulfan Moderate CarcinogenicSuspected Endocrine DisruptorPossibly Tetragenic Below Below

Fipronil Moderate Possible CarcinogenPossibly TetragenicSuspected Endocrine Disruptor Below Below

Monocrotophos Highly Cholinesterase InhibitorPossible Endocrine DisruptorPossibly Tetragenic Below Below

Parathion (methyl) Extremely Cholinesterase InhibitorPossibly TetragenicSuspected Endocrine Disruptor Below Below

Source: (PAN, 2007)

25

Continuous consumption of pesticidesdetected in this study, even at low levels canaccumulate in the receptor’s body, potentiallycausing a range of chronic health effects tothe human population over the long-term.Paradoxically, mean concentrations acrossall samples revealed that 92% of detectedpesticides with ADIs were lower than advisedlevels and 73% of pesticides with MRLbenchmarks were lower than recommendedlimits.

Confounding these results is that overallaverage concentrations of pesticidesillustrated that 1 pesticide, Aldrin, anextremely hazardous insecticide, is 2.8 timeshigher than the WHO/FAO MRL. Thishowever, might well be a very isolated issueof over contamination, which is difficult tovalidate without return to the field. Similarly,when comparing daily intakes against overallaverage pesticide occurrence, Aldrin aloneexceeded ADI levels but by 17.5 times,indicating that in the context of samples inthis study, potentially, people consumingsamples containing Aldrin over the long-termwould be at higher risk of chronic exposure.Again, the issue of super exposure can onlybe validated by more field-work.

Conclusion

Results show 92% of detected pesticideresidues occur below ADI thresholds and73% below MRLs, possibly belying harmfulimplications to public health through chronicexposure due to the prevalence and variationof detected residues. If this study werewholly representative of long-term riceconsumption patterns, potentially, a diverseseries of adverse long-term health effectsresulting from exposure throughconsumption would theoretically, be

increased for the populace of Nepal.

Assessing potential health risks throughchronic exposure using ADIs and MRLsneeds to account for pesticide frequencies,type and toxicity hazard of residues, as wellas their associated adverse health effects, ifany. Given this premise, overallconcentration levels, frequencies andprevalence of different pesticides acrossdetected samples, give reason for concernincluding:

(i) Occurrence of these pesticidesindicates ubiquitous use;

(ii) Proportionally, at least 61% of alldetected pesticides are OCs andOPPs, some of which readily persistwithin the environment, bio-accumulate, easily volatilise andbreakdown into a series of toxicbyproducts;

(iii) Over 50% of detected pesticides areillegal to import, are heavily restrictedfor use, included in the PIC Procedureof the Stockholm Convention, bannedin countries of origin and in many LDCs(including Nepal) via internationalagreements and/or are obsolete (e.g.,DDT);

(iv) 69% of pesticides found, even at lowlevels are known to be neuro-toxic andare, at the very least, suspectedendocrine disruptors;

(v) Cumulative effects of differentpesticides are likely to have a diverserange of adverse health impactsdependent on the prevalence ofpesticides, whether they occurindividually or in a group within any onesample; and

(vi) Long-term health effects as a result of

chronic exposure, throughconsumption, present an unnecessaryrisk to the general population regularlyconsuming contaminated commodities.

Pesticides found in this study exhibitnumerous aspects outlined above, many ofwhich have the capacity to potentially triggercatastrophic toxicological effects throughchronic exposure. Should samples not berepresentative and only beconsumed/ingested over the short term,health hazard risk and chronic exposure willbe significantly reduced and unlikely toadversely affect long-term health outcomesof the general population.

Discussion

Findings of this study demonstrate that with19 samples, it is only possible to determinethe pesticide usage and chronic exposurescenario in Nepal, by contextualising resultsin the form of a ‘snap shot’ analysis of arepresentative, staple food type. Furtherresearch would be necessary, preferably witha larger set of around 100 samples toprovide a broader and more comprehensiveassessment.

Whilst recognition is given for the need toconduct futher research, acceleration ofchemical use within agriculture in Nepal isbeginning to mirror the previous experienceof India’s Green Revolution. Climate changein Nepal probably means highertemperatures at higher altitudes coupled withdecreased precipitation. These factors haveimplications, particularly for water storageand pesticide reservoirs. Increase ofextreme weather events, especiallyassociated with flooding probably meansaugmented numbers of catch crops, which inturn, means an increase in the use of

26

1. ADB, (2004), Asian Development BankCountry Analysis For Nepal, [online]Available at:http://www.adb.org/Documents/Reports/CEA/nep-sept-2004.pdf (Accessed 20thMarch, 2008)

2. Atreya, K., (2006) Farmer’s Willingness toPay for Community Integrated PestManagement Training in Nepal, Agriculutreand Human Values, 24: pp 399-409

3. Atreya, K., (2007) Pesticide use Knowledgeand practices: a gender differences inNepal, Alternative Development andResearch Centre (ADRC) Kathmandu,Nepal, [online] Available at:www.sciencedirect.com (Accessed 23rdJanuary, 2008)

4. Bhakat P.R., (2005), Pesticidesmanagement in Nepal: In view of code of

conduct. Paper presented at the RegionalWorkshop on International Code ofConduct on the Distribution and Use ofPesticides: Implementation, Monitoring andObservance, Bangkok, Thailand, 26-28July 2005 [online] Available at:http://www.fao.org/world/regional/rap/meetings/2005/Jul26/Documents/Nepal%20Paper.doc(accessed 23rd November, 2007)

5. Bhandari, B.S. and Grant, M., (2007),Analysis of livelihood security: A case studyin the Kali-Khola Watershed of Nepal, Vol.85, pp. 17-26

6. Blaikie, P.M., Cameron, J. and Seddon,J.D., (2001), Nepal in Crisis, Growth andStagnation at the Periphery, Nice PrintingPress, New Delhi, ISBN: 81-87392-19-3

7. Deraniyagala, S., (2005), The PoliticalEconomy of Civil Conflict in Nepal, Oxford

Development Studies, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp.47-62 (16)

8. Ecobichon, D.J., (2001), Pesticide use indeveloping countries, Toxicology, Vol. 160,No. 1-3, pp. 27-33

9. Economist (2007), Economist print edition,[online] Available at:http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8828110 (Accessed20th January, 2008)

10. Economist, (2008), Economist print edition,19thApril, 2008,Vol. 387, No. 8576, pp. 66-67

11. EJF, (2002), Death in Small Doses:Cambodia’s Pesticide Problems andSolutions, Environmental JusticeFoundation, London [online] Available at:www.ejfoundation.org (Accessed 18thDecember, 2007)

pesticides and high yield seeds. Agriculturalintensification and climate change leads to adecrease in species diversity, a change inpest epidemiology, and a generally uncertainagricultural future. In all probability, the use ofhigh cost external inputs will ultimately drivechanges in land use and land ownership,which could have implications for both ruraland urban livelihood vulnerability.

Acknowledgements

A sincere thank you to Dr. David Cooke ofNorthumbria University, for undertaking

GC/MS analyses and constant support forthis project. Appreciation is extended toProfessor Phil O’Keefe and Dr. Geoff O’Brienof Northumbria University for invaluableadvice, assistance and support at all times.Thank you to Gary Askwith also ofNorthumbria University for assistance inextraction and blow-down procedures andendless patience in the laboratory hemanages so well. A big thank you to KomalRaj Aryal, Research Associate, Disaster andDevelopment Centre, School of AppliedSciences at Northumbria University, forcollection of rice samples from Nepal, without

which, this study would have been seriouslyjeopardised.

References

27

12. EJF, (2003), What’s Your Poison? HealthThreats Posed by Pesticides in DevelopingCountries. Environmental JusticeFoundation, London [online] Available at:www.ejfoundation.org (Accessed 23rdJanuary, 2008)

13. Erenstein, O., Hellin, J. and Chandna, P.,(2007), Livelihoods, poverty and targetingin the Indo-Gangetic Plains: a spatialmapping approach, New Delhi: CIMMYTand the Rice-Wheat Consortium for theIndo-Gangetic Plains (RWC)

14. FAO/WHO Food Standards, (2007), CodexAlimentarius, Pesticide Residues in Food,Maximum Residue Limits; ExtraneousMaximum Residue Limits, [Online]Available at:http://www.codexalimentarius.net/mrls/pestdes/jsp/pest_q-e.jsp (accessed 10thDecember, 2007)

15. Gadema, Z., (2008), Climate Change andPesticides in Nepal, Adverse Effects andPotential Health Risks through ChronicExposure. Unpublished Dissertation,School of Applied Sciences, NorthumbriaUniversity

16. Hainzl, D., Casida, J.E., (1996), FipronilInsecticide: Novel PhotochemicalDesulfinylation With Retention ofNeurotoxicity, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. 93:12764-12767 [online], Available at:http://www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/93/23/12764, (accessed 3rd April, 2008)

17. HMG, (2005a), Green Cities: Plan forPlanet, Agriculture and Environment, HisMajesty’s Government, Ministry ofAgriculture and Cooperatives, GenderEquity and Environment Division, SinghDurbar, Kathmandu, Nepal [online]Available at:http://www.aicc.gov.np/publications/environment_journal/envoronment_jjournal_2005

.pdf (accessed 23rd February, 2008)

18. INCHEM, (2007), International Programmeon Chemical Safety, [online], Available at:http://www.inchem.org/ (accessed 3rdFebruary, 2008)

19. IOMC, (1998), PROCEEDINGS of theSubregional Awareness Raising Workshopon the Rotterdam Convention on the PriorInformed Consent Procedure for CertainHazardous Chemicals and Pesticides inInternational Trade, Bangkok, Thailand, 8-11 December 1998, pp. 187-194 [online]Available at:http://www.pic.int/proceedings/report.PDF(Accessed 20th December, 2007)

20. Kansakar, V.B.S., Khanal, N.R., Ghimire, M.(2002), Use of Insecticides in Nepal,[online], Available at: www.tu-bs.de/Medien-DB/geooekologie/nepal-kanskar-khanal-ghimire.pdf (Accessed20th February, 2008)

21. Low, F., Lin, H.M., Gerrard, J.A., Cressey,P.J., and Shaw, I.C., (2004), Ranking theRisk of Pesticide Dietary Intake, PestManagement Science, Vol. 60, pp. 842-848

22. New Agriculturalist (2007), On-line CountryProfile: Nepal, [online] Available at:http://www.new-ag.info/01-3/countryp.html(Accessed 25th February)

23. NSSD, (2001), Land and Agriculture,[online], Available at:http://www.nssd.net/country/nepal/nep02.htm, (accessed 4th January, 2008)

24. PAN (2007), From Global Initiatives to LocalAction, [online] Available at:http://www.pan-uk.org/Internat/globinit/glindex.htm(accessed 10th December, 2007)

25. Pariyar, M. P., Shrestha, K.B., and Dhakal,N. H. (2001), Baseline study on agricultural

mechanization needs in Nepal: Rice-WheatConsortium Paper Series 13. New Delhi110 012, India: Rice-Wheat Consortium forthe Indo-Gangetic Plains. 84 pp [online]Available at:http://www.rwc.cgiar.org/Pub_Info.asp?ID=46 (Accessed 10th December, 2007)

26. Paudyal, A., (2007), Does Chemicals InUse Warrant Urgency? EnviroStation, E-facts, Contemporary Issues, Vol. 1 (4),[online] Available atwww.envirostation.com.np/pdf/envirostation-4.pdf(Accessed 4th January, 2008).

27. Pokhrel, T.P., (1997), Rice developmentprogramme in Nepal, Bulletin de laCommission Internationale du RizNoticiariode la Comision Internacional del Arroz,International Rice Commission Newsletter,No. 46 V6017/T [online] Available at:http://www.fao.org/docrep/V6017T/V6017T04.htm (accessed 3rd December, 2007)

28. Seddon, D. and Adhikari, J., (2003),Conflict and Food Security in Nepal: apreliminary analysis, Rural ReconstructionNepal, Kathamandu, [online] Available at:http://www.internal-displacement.org/8025708F004CE90B/(httpDocuments)/13C80D92223B06B5802570B700599A54/$file/eu-conflict.pdf(accessed on 23rd November, 2007)

29. WFP (2007), World Food ProgrammeExtends Food Aid Operations in Nepal toCover Continuing Drought, [online],Available at:www.wfp.org/english/?moduleID=137andkey=2366 (accessed 3rd March, 2008)

30. WHO, (2005), The WHO recommendedclassification of pesticides by hazard andguidelines to classification: 2004, ISBN 924 154663

28

Dendrochronological Analsyes and Climate Change Perceptions

in Langtang National Park, Central Nepal

Analyses of temperature and precipitationrecords in Nepal show that temperatures inNepal are increasing at a higher rate thanthose of other mountaine regions around theworld (0.060C/yr) (Shrestha et al. 1999, p.2778). The warming seems to be consistentand continuous after the mid-1970s and morepronounced at higher altitudes. Thesechanges cause rainfall to increase and rainydays to decrease, suggesting that rainfallevents are becoming increasingly sporadic.The warming has resulted in the markedretreat of glaciers with a reduction in botharea and ice volume (Agrawal et al. 2003, p.29). These changes not only threaten thelarge stores of fresh water in the form of iceand glaciers situated at high altitudes of the

Himalaya, but have also intensifiedthe rateand ferocity of GLOFs, flooding, landslides,erosion and sedimentation (MOPE 2004, p.153).

Studies of climate change are urgentlyneeded in order to better understand linkagesbetween changing climatic patterns, theincrease in natural hazards and theircombined effects upon livelihoods at thelocal level. However, climatic records inNepal are limited. Most meteorologicalstations are located at low elevations(<2000m). Therefore, time series analyses ofrecorded climate data for the assessment ofclimate change at higher altitudes is notpossible. We need to identify alternativewaysto study climate change. One such

alternative is dendrochronology. Due to theprevalence of fur and pine tree species athigher altitudes of Nepal, dendrochronologycan be used to pin-point climatic variation inthe absence of climatic data. Hence, thepresent study was carried out with thefollowing objectives:

• To study the growth pattern of tree ringsanddevelop tree ring chronological data ofAbies. spectabilis.

• To compare responses of A. spectabilis ringwidths with climate (temperature andprecipitation).

• To ascertain perceptions of climate changefrom local people in the Langtang region.

Mr. Parveen Kumar Chhetri

Central Department of Environmental Science, TU, Kathmandu, Nepal

*Corresponding author email: parveenchhetri@gmail.com

Introduction

29

Methodology

This study was undertaken from June to July,2007 at Chandanbari (Site I) and Cholangpati(Site II) of Langtang National Park (LNP). LNPis located in the Central Himalaya of Nepaland is one of the parks nearest toKathmandu. 60 A. spectabilis trees from thepure stand forest of Site I and 60 trees fromSite II were cored with a Swedish incrementborer and two samples from each tree werecollected from a north-facing slope. Afterbeing air dried, samples were fixed on woodsupports using glue with the cross sectionfacing upwards. Samples were polishedusing a rotary electric belt sander to maketree rings visible with progressively finergrades of sand paper (60- to 320-grit).

An accurate machine with a precision of0.001mm was used for measurement.Standard dendrochronologicalprocedures(Fritts 1976; Cook et al., 1990)were followed to develop chronological datasets.A computer programmeknown asCOFECHA (Holmes 1983) was then used todetect measurement and cross-dating errorsand ARSTAN (Cook 1985) was used toreduce the non-climatic variations presentedin series of tree-rings. Response-functionanalysis (program DendroClim 2002- Biondiand Waikul 2004) was utilised to assess theimpact of changes in monthly meantemperatures and monthly precipitationlevels from the September of previous yearsuntil October of the observed year on theannual variation of tree-ring width. Since,long-term meteorological records at highaltitudes near sampling sites were notsufficient, we selected the meteorologicaldata of Kathmandu Airport (27o42’N,85o18’E, 1336 m), located about 50km awayfrom sampling sites for analysis.

Household surveys and group discussions

were conducted to find out perceptions ofclimate change within LNP communities. Atotal of 31 households were selectedrandomly and questionnaires administered toselected heads of households. Similarly, twogroup discussions of key informants wereorganised. The number of participants in thegroup discussion ranged 5 in Cholangpati to6 in the Polangpati area of LNP.

Results and Discussion

Chronology

Almost 250 years of tree ring chronologicaldata was developedusing samples of A.spectabilistrees (Figure 1). Tree ringchronology curves exhibited similar growthpatternsfrom both sites. This means thatthere is no real difference in the way thesampled trees react to environmental factors.This chronological data set is comparativelyshort in comparison to other studies from

Nepal (345 years Khanal & Rijal 2002, p.14and 436 years of Langtang Chronology inCook et al., 2003, p. 709). Tree ringchronologies were limited by butt rot in mostof the oldest trees. Another study thatfocused on sites in Western Nepal by Sanoet al. (2005, p. 84) revealed comparablechallenges.

Analyses of increment cores from both sitesrevealed that trees in these stands rangedfrom 100-300 years old. Trees of theChandanbari site were found to be older thanCholangpati. The mean tree ring width ofChandanbari was 2.34mm and that ofCholangpati site was 1.70mm. This showedthat growth rate was highest (2.34mm/yr) inChandanbari and lowest (1.70mm/yr) inCholangpati. Series inter-correlation andmean sensitivity were recorded at 0.457 and0.223 respectively for Site I, and 0.499 and0.203 respectively for site II. The high meansensitivity value indicated that high inter-annual variability was present in ring widths.

Figure 1 Master and Individual Site Chronologies of A. spectabilis

30

Additionally, chronologicalinterpretationsproved valuable in illustratingyearlyenvironmental changes and proved that theAbiestree species were indeed usefulforresponse analysis.

Response Analysis

Tree growth of the Himalayan region isprimarily limited by moisture availability in thepre-monsoon season (March-May) with anegative association to temperature and apositive association with precipitation(Borganokar, Panta & Rupa Kumar 1999). Itwas found that tree ring parameters of Site II,and master chronology positively correlatedwith March’s total precipitation but negativelycorrelated with May’s monthly minimumtemperature. This result indicated that ringwidth is primarily controlled by pre-monsoontemperatures and precipitation. Similarresults were found in response analyses oftree-ring parameters of A. spectabilis withclimate records from Western Nepal (Sano etal., 2005, p. 83) and Central Nepal (Khanal &Rijal 2002, p. 15). The strong correlationbetween radial growth and Marchprecipitation suggests that the month ofMarch should be active in photosynthatestorage that contributes to growth later in theactive season. Negative correlations with Maymonthly minimum temperatures wereattributed to water stress. This means thattheAbies species from these sites are idealfor past climate reconstruction.

Past Climate Reconstruction

The value of chronology statistics and resultsof response analyses show that presentchronologies can be used for climaticreconstruction. One of the major difficulties in

undertaking thorough dendro-climaticresearch in Nepal relates to the dearth oflong-term meteorological records forstatically calibrating tree rings(Bhattacharayya, LaMarche and Huges 1992,p. 60; Cook et al., 2003, p. 710 and Sano etal., 2005, p. 85). This study was limited byfactors including poor climatic dataavailability and sample sizes. A recentstudyby Cook et al. (2003, pp. 727-729) wasbased on a dense network of 32 ring widthchronologies across Nepal wherein tworeconstructions of February–June andOctober–February temperatureswereanalysed and presented back to AD 1546and 1605 respectively. These were the firstdendro-climatic reconstructions developedspecifically for Nepal. However, only theOctober to February reconstruction revealedany indication of unusual late 20th centurywarming.

Perceptions and livelihoods

A total of 93% of respondentshad noticedabrupt climatic phenomena recentlyandbelieved that climate change was happening.Unusual climatic events over the last fewyears,such as sporadic bursts of rainfallandlower snowfall rates during winterseasons had beennoticed by 80.4% ofinterviewed respondents. The samerespondents were unaware of global warmingor reports of rapidly receding Himalayanglaciers. Most respondents believed thattimes are changing in the sense that rainfalland snowfall events were evidently andincreasingly more erratic, variable andunpredictable. A total of 90.3% ofrespondents believed productivity ofgrassland had been decreasing and peoplethought that itmight be due to untimely andlower snowfall rates. Other people attributed

lower grassland productivity to increasednumbers of cattle and grazing pressure.

Livestock farming in Nepal is a majoreconomic activity. For example, yaks grazeabove 2000m throughout the National Park.As such, communities lying within the LNPhave serious concerns over declining grassproduction in the Himalayan grasslands. Atotal of 58% of respondents believed thatblossoming seasons of wild flowers includingrhododendrons have changed markedly overthe past few years. For instance, it washighlighted that rhododendrons initiallyblossomed during the months of Baishak(mid April-mid May), but now they flowerduring the Chaitra period (mid March-midApril) too. Local people also noticed markedchanges in snowfall patterns over mountains.Villagers explained that once mountains weregenerally covered with snow all year but thatthis had declined to a stage that snowcoverage now occurs primarily during wintermonths.A total of 64.5% of respondents alsonoticed invasion of exotic species on grazingland and agricultural land. Species ordinarilyfound in lowland areas, are now becomingcommonplace in highland areas too. Peoplefrom the Thulo Sayfru area (situated at aheight of 2500m) pointed out unknownforeign species and attributed these solely toclimatic change. For instance, Cercium sp.was not commonly found in the areapreviously,yet this species is now prevalentwithin Thulo Sayfru.

Additionally, local people and senior scoutsof LNP noticed a significant increase inlandslides over the past decade. These havebeen linked witha parallel increase inpermafrost melting. Productivity rates ofcrops including wheat, maize and potato arerapidly becoming more adversely affecteddue to changes in frequency and levels of

31

precipitation. Local people also attributedsharp increases in pest occurrences inmaize(a staple food crop) directly to unusualrainfall patterns. Traditionally, apple farmingwas a primary economic activity in this area.However, apple productivity is alsodecreasing. Again, local people blamedhigher than average temperatures. Much ofthe industrial base surrounding appleproduction has declined. If local peoples’perceptions and observations of climatechange are accurate, continued physicalchanges in the environment will surelycontinue to adversely affect livelihood andfood security. Strategies for adaptation toclimate change with a range of inclusive andintegrative policies are needed with anemphasis onlocal level, people-centredapproaches.

Conclusion

Major international efforts are underway toreconstruct past climates at high-elevationsites to address uncertainties in predictingphysical and biological responses to climatechange at decadal timescales in theseecologically significant environments(Beniston 1994, p. 492). In this study we triedto explore the potential of tree-ring recordsfrom the high elevation Abies forest of Nepalfor identifying major patterns of climaticvariability. Results of the present study showthat Abies trees can be used indendroclimatological studies and theconstruction of past climate scenarios. Thisstudy illustrated that dendrochronologicalstudy isuseful in the reconstruction ofmonthly temperatures. Although tree ringdata derived from this study is unable tosingularly build a vast,chronological climaticrecord, the data set can easily be extendedby collecting samples from older growing

tree stands. Temperatures reconstructed byCook et al., (2003, p. 728) indicated wintertemperatures increased at unprecedentedrates overthe last half of the 20th Century.

Communities of the Cholangpati andChandanbari areas are already starting tofeel the impacts of climate change in theirday-to-day activities. Local people remainunaware of climate change and its impacts.As such, it is recommended that furtherresearch utilising dendrochronologicalmethods and implementation of awarenessprogrammes regarding climate change,especially for local communities in isolatedmountain regions be undertaken at theearliest opportunity.

Acknowledgements

I am thankful to Shubhechchha Thapa, Dr.Narendra Raj Khanal, Dr. NathusdaPumijumnong and Dr. Dhananjay Regmi fortheir generous help. This study was partiallysupported by theWWF-Nepal small grantprogramme.

32

References 1. Agrawal, S, Raksakulathai, V, Atlast, M,

Larsen, P, Smith, J & Reynolds, J 2003,Development and Climate Change inNepal: Focus on Water Resources andHydropower. Organization for EconomicCooperation and Development, Paris, p.29.

2. Borgaonkar, HP, Pant, GB & Rupa Kumar,K 1999, ‘Tree-ring chronologies fromwestern Himalaya and their dendroclimaticpotential’, IAWA Journal, vol. 20, pp. 259-309.

3. Beniston, M 1994, ‘Mountain Environmentsin Changing Cliamtes’, Routledge, Londonand New Yourk, p 492.

4. Biondi, F & Waikul, K 2004,‘Dendroclim2002: A C++ program forstatistical calibration of climate signals intree ring chronology’, Computers andGeosciences, vol. 30, pp. 303 - 311.

5. Bhattacharyya, A, LaMarche Jr, VC &Hughes, MK 1992, ‘Tree-ring chronologiesfrom Nepal’, Tree-Ring Bulletin, vol. 52, pp.59-66.

6. Cook, ER, Krusic, PJ & Jones, PD 2003,‘Dendroclimatic signals in long tree-ringchronologies from the Himalayas ofNepal’, International Journal of Climatology,vol.23, pp. 707-732.

7. Cook, ER & Holmes, RL 1986, ‘Usermanual for program Arstan’, in HolmesRL et al. (eds), Tree-ring chronologies ofwestern North America, California, easternOregon and northen Great Basin,Chronology series IV, University ofArizona.

8. Cook, ER, Briffa, KR, Shiyatov, S &Mazepa, V 1991, ‘Tree-ringstandardization and growth trendestimation’, in Cook, ER, Kairiuskdtis, LA(eds.), Methods of Dendrochronology:Applications in the EnvironmentalScience, Kluwer Academic Publishers,Dordrecht, the Netherlands, pp. 104-123.

9. Fritts, HC 1976, Tree Ring and Climate,Academic Press, London.

10. Holmes, RL 1983, ‘Computer-assistedquality control in tree-ring dating andmeasurement’, Tree-Ring Bulletin, vol. 43,pp. 69-78.

11. Khanal, NR & Rijal, SP 2002, ‘Tree ringchronology from Ganesh Himal Area,Central Nepal’, Geothermal /Dendrochronological PaleoclimateReconstruction across Eastern Margin ofEurasia, Proceeding 2002 InternationalMastsuyama Workshop, pp.12-19.

12. MOPE 2004, Initial NationalCommunication to the Conference ofParties of the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change, Ministryof Population and Environment of Nepal,Kathmandu, Nepal, p. 153.

13. Sano, M, Furuta, F, Kobayashi, O &Sweda, T 2005, ‘Temperature variationssince the mid-18th century for westernNepal, as reconstructed from tree-ringwidth and density of Abies spectablies’,Dendrochronologia, vol.23, pp. 83-92.

14. Shrestha, AB, Wake, CP, Mayewski, PA &Dibb, JE 1999, ‘Maximum TemperatureTrends in the Himalaya and its Vicinity: An

Analysis Based on Temperature Recordsfrom Nepal for the Period 1971 – 94’,Journal of Climate, vol.12, pp. 2775-2789.

33

Spain has traditionally been an agrariansociety. Landscapes were formerly shapedwith a mosaic of agricultural, pastoral andforest patches. Following Spain’s democratictransition during the 1980s, and as aconsequence of uneven developmentpolicies aimed to foment the importance ofcoastal cities; rural populationsabandonedtraditional livelihoods and migrated to urbanareas in search of employment opportunities.As a result, wild revegetation has invaded theunderstory of forests, agricultural areas andpastures. These overly dense structures ofsmall trees with stagnated growthprovideperfect conditions for the propagationof fire as they form continuous bands ofparticularly flammable forest fuel per squaremeter. In addition, this type of vegetation isincreasingly prone to combustion as a resultof higher temperatures, stronger winds andlower rainfall registered in Spain (IPCC,

2001). Under these conditions, any sparkcould easilytrigger the onset of a fire that inall probability couldbe difficult, if notimpossible, to control. Thus what is ofconcern is how and why fires are initiated.

Only 4% of forest fires in Spain are producedby natural causes such as a lightning strike.It is estimated that 95% of fires are causedby human action: either through neglect orare intentional (WWF, 2006). Abandonment ofrural areas is also tied in with theabandonment of positive feeling andaffection or care that rural people have fortheir environment. Among those who remainnear to or in forest communities, thetraditional slash and burn culture to maintainpastures and agricultural land is stillpractised. Without knowing current riskconditions for the propagation of fire, firewhen it occurs, has the potential ofbecoming out of control. The use of fire to

establish commercial forest plantations andthe conflict between different users is usuallybehind the origin of a considerablepercentage of forest fires (TVE, 2005).

As a result, Spain is affected by an averageof 20,000 forest fires every year, mainlyconcentrated in the three summer months(mid June, July, August and mid September).This equates to an average of 150 fires a day.Half of all forest fires in the European Unionare made up of those that occur in Spain.This figure exceeds the number of fires thatoccur in other Mediterranean countriesincluding Portugal, Italy, Greece and France(ISTA, 2005). This paper outlines how currentSpanish forest fire fighting strategies are aresult of a process of learning aimed to makeSpain more resilient to this serious problemthat threatens not only the environment butalso the national economy and human lives.

Integrated Forest FiresManagement in Spain:

Towards a More Resilient Model?

Laura Barba Villaescusa

*Corresponding author e-mail: lbvillaescusa@hotmail.com

Introduction: The Spanish Reality

34

Organisational model: Sharing ofResponsibilities

Spain is divided administratively into 17Autonomous Regions (Figure 1). Eachregion is divided into a number of provinces.During the 1980s, the decade of democratictransition, the management of forest firestransferrd from centralised control toadministrative regions. Thus, systems andframeworks of fire management are generallymanaged, administered and operated at theregional scale (DGB, 1997).

Individual regions haveautonomouslydesigned regional forest fire plans anddeveloped human and technical meanssuitedto their own environmental, social andeconomic conditions. Therefore, there is nota common model of organisation at thenational scale. In the case of regions withmore than one province, RegionalCoordination Centres have been created inorder to facilitate and coordinate the mobilityof their own means throughout its territoryand to channel requests for assistance to theMinistry of Environment and other regions.

Alarge number of differing regional planshave led to the nature of forest fire fightingbecoming a complex, cross-cuttingadministrative task, which requires a highdegree of coordination betweenadministrations. The State is ultimatelyresponsible for the efficient functioning of thenation overall. As such, it supports andfacilitates regions by providing a legislativeframework, meteorological information andpromoting the inter-institutional andinternational agreement betweenneighbouring countries.

In the context of the international arena,climate change which has increased theprobability, verocity and number of fireshas

led to greater awareness of the need toprovide funding to support internationalprogrammes that focus on investigation,prevention and reduction of the effects andimpacts of forest fires.

Forest Fire Fighting in Spain: AResilience Model?

Resilience is increasingly featured in globaldebate in terms of reducing the impacts ofdisasters. There are a number of definitionsfor resilience. The United Nations

International Strategy for Disaster Reduction(UN/ISDR) has adopted the term resilienceand defines it with reference to naturalhazards:

The capacity of a system, community orsociety potentially exposed to hazards toadapt, by resisting or changing in order toreach and maintain an acceptable level offunctioning and structure is crucial. The levelat which systems, communities and/orsocieties can build resilience is determinedby the degree to which a social system iscapable of organising itself to increase thecapacity for learning from past disasters for

Figure 1 Administrative Division Map of Spain’s Autonomous Regions (Cartomapas, 2002)

35

better future protection and to improve riskreduction measures (UN/ISDR, 2004, p.430).

The term resilience brings togethercomponents of the disaster cycle –response, recovery, preparedness andmitigation that essentially utilise a range ofstructural and non-structural approaches(O’Brien and Read, 2005). However, thecurrent Spanish forest fire-fighting model hasfocused on particular areas undermining theconcept of resilience.

Response

Forest fire fighting has traditionally beenidentified with the “response” phase in Spain.Other components of the disaster cycle aremarginalised andre main focused on favouringthe work of emergency services teams todetect, respond to and suppress fires. Takinginto account data from the last 3 decades(Figure 2), efforts in this area have achievedpositive results in terms of reducingthe totalarea sizeof fires when they occur. On average,63% of fires in Spain are extinguished beforespreading to more than a hectare in size. Overthe last three decades it has beendemonstrated that there is a developing andenhanced capacity to detect firesat the earlystagewith increasing capability of dealing withthe area in question with sufficient enoughspeed in whichto extinguish fires.

Despite the fact that less than 1% of firesexceed 5000 ha (complex forest fires), thenumber of hectares affected by fires is ofconcern. In other words, only a few fires(0.18%) consume large area sizes. In termsof coordination, these large fires requireassistance between regions, the governmentand other affected countries. The Spanishresponse to large-scale fires is not aseffective as it could be.

Figure 2 Total Number of Fires and Affected Areas, 1978-2007 (Ministry of Environment, 2007)

Figure 3 Total Number of Fires, 1978-2007 (Ministry of Environment, 2007)

36

At the same time, emergency responseservices are also vulnerable to waiveringpublic support. Every year Spain has morethan 20,000 people working in forest fireresponse. In order to reduce the high level ofunemployment in rural areas, land teamsrecruit people from the emergency servicesector. However, those dependent upon theexistence of forest fires are generally thosethat are employed to manage them. Thus, itis not strange to find forest fire fighters as theperpetrators of fires in recent years. Thesecases are relatively few and far between butare difficult to prove. Consequently,the topichas become especially controversial, havingtriggered polemic debate in the media andsociety about the reliability and truthfulness ofthe emergency response services.

Prevention

According to Figure 3, the number ofincidents continually rising each year givescause for concern. It is clear that Spain isaddressing the response to fires but is notpreventing their occurrence.

It is estimated that 95 % of fires are causedby human action. 60% of fires are intentionaland 17% unknown (Figure 4). Approximately84 % of complex fires (those that producemajor damage) are thought to be intentional(WWF, 2006). Despite these statistics, only33% of the total national forest fire-fightingbudget is allocated to social prevention.

Official statistics in Spain show that only 1%of forest fires in Spain involve arrest(TheGuardian, 2005). This poor performance interms of arrest of those responsible for forforest fires indicates widespread apathy inthe investigation and prosecution of crimesrelated to forest fires (ISTAS,2005).Meanwhile, authorities face real

challenges in establishing blame andsecuring convictions.

Recovery

The concept of resilience was initially used inecology to describe the ability of ecosystemsto resist and recover from external negativeimpacts (Blaikie and Brookfield, 1985).Mediterranean vegetation has successfullyadapted to fires and. However the problemarises when fires are repeated withsuccessive frequency. At this stage, forestsare unable to fully recover adequate vitalityand the process of soil degradation begins.The importance of reforestation programmesis vital in terms of resilience.Withoutreforestation programmes, the soil, withoutroots or with dead roots, would be exposedto increasing soil degradation that wouldadversely impact upon rural peoples’livelihood security. Despite this, the number

of hectares under reforestation programmeshas declined in the last decade (REF).

Generally, land-ownersand/or rural people inforested regions are benefiting fromagricultural insurance, which covers damageaccording to what was agreed in the givencontract in question. The State has a subsidyprogramme to finance up to 50% off initialsubscriptions. As well as these significantsubsidies the State allocates economicsupport to repair or replace damagedproperty, compensates personal injury,andfarm damage, including commercial,livestock, industrialand touristestablishments. According to EmergencyManagement Australia “resilience is ameasure of how quickly a system orcommunity recovers from failures” (O’Brienand Read, 2005). However, with respect toforest fire incidents, often, decades areneeded before rural communities can recovertheir forest-based livelihoods.

Figure 4 Causes of Forest fires – 1997-2007 (Ministry of Environment, 2007)

37

Rethinking Forest Fires in Spain

The Spanish government and regionalauthorities have made considerable changesto fire fighting response strategies in recentyears. Forest fire planners have recognisedthe role of society in Spain and theimportance of involving societies with thedevelopment of building resilience to forestfire events. Resilience requires capacitybuilding of governance structures,communities and individuals to mitigate andadapt to forest fires. Therefore, new forest firefighting approaches in the last 3 years havebeen given top priority in:

• Coordination: In order to improve thecoordination in complex forest fires(>500ha), Military emergency units (UMEs)using the military’s proven organisationaland operational skills have been createdunder the responsibility of the Ministry ofDefence to deal with environmental andcivil protection. However, there areconcerns that in times of crisis, the singlechain of command and control that thesestructures follow could undermine civilprotection and local efforts built oncollaboration (Alexander, 2002).

• Cooperation between competent regional,state and international bodies is beingencouraged to prevent these fires throughnational meetings and increased cross-border agreements. As forest firescontribute greatly to the emission ofgreenhouse gases (mainly CO2),agreements also form part of the nationalglobal warming policy.

• Preventive legal framework. The old “Leyde montes” (Countryside Act) in 1973 waschanged in 2003 in order to prevent burntland from being reclassified as suitable ‘forhousing' for at least 30 years after a fire

event. This attempts to put a stop to manyscams surrounding deliberate fires. Recentpunishment measures have also beenadopted to ensure the detention ofperpetrators.

• Active participation of citizens. Focus onforest groups living in “high risk” areas viaforest fire committees can shareinformation and explore various steps thatcould be taken at an individual level to dealwith fire. The formation of local forest firecommittees is increasingly included inregional plans.

• Besides,”Specialised integral preventionteams” (EPRIF) have been created in ordercarry out the burnings that farm andlivestock owners require to reduceaccumulated fuel in their lands in acontrolled way. This measure enjoysconsiderable popularity among ruralpeople. These teams also educate ruralpeople about fire and the potential risks.

• Investigation of causes and datagathering. “Cause investigation teams”have been created to move to affectedareasfollowing fire events. Inch by inch,undertake investigations by gatheinginformation with the purpose of findinganswers to such important questions as:"Who burns the forest, why and for whatreason?". Only then, can effectivemeasures to punish the perpetrators andsolve underlying social conflicts can beproposed (WWF, 2006).

• All collected data is integrated andrecorded on a national database in order tomake periodical evaluations and learn fromidentified failures and successes. Finalnational yearly data is provided to theEuropean Commission to be incorporatedwithin the "socle commun" data, the EU

data bank (DGB,1997) that enforces theidentification of risk at a broader level.

• New agreements with universities haveinitiated to enhance existing research andpromote new research projects to improveknowledge regarding the underlyingcauses of fires and the development ofnew satellite and remote sensingtechnologies that inform on forest fire riskidentification.

• Autocton species reforestationprogrammes. Pilot projects with a mix ofalocton and autocton species are beingcarried out in the last decade in order tosupport afforestation and reforestationinitiatives. Supported by Europeanprojects, FEDER and FEOGAR, theirimplementation has resulted in effectivemonitoring and better rates of cooperationwith farmers as these initiatives representnet incomes for farmers (UN, 1996).However, there are still concerns regardingthe increasing area designated tocommercial plantations to prolific andproblematic species such as eucalyptus.

The Spanish Government and regionalauthorities are making great progress inimplementing pathways to eliminating thenumber of forest fires to reduce disaster risk.However, despite the growing number ofpositive initiatives, the role of individuals isessential in the process of forest-firereduction.

Conclusion

Traditionally, wildfire plans were focused onthe phase of “response” in Spain. Only 33%of the total forest fire budget in Spain hasbeen aimed at prevention. Studying causalfactors and theintroduction of rehabilitation

38

programmes has declined. Theseapproaches have not yet managed to stemthe annual growth in the number of fires.Inrecent years, a more holistic approach toresilience is taking hold,with an evolutiontowards more global strategies that addressthe underlying causes of forest fires. Greatereffort has been madeto enhance theinstitutional coordination of emergencyresponse to fires. Additionally, research intothe reasons behind deliberate forest fires inorder to better understand, resolve andreconcile social and economic conflicts inrural areas is growing. Although it has notbeen the main objective of this report, it isimportant to highlight that the problem offorest fires in Spain is now also a globalconcern that requires both national andinternational measures to mitigate thenegative range of impacts upon forests.

Recognition needs to be given to the welfareof rural populations as well as theenvironment upon which many ruralcommunities rely for livelihood security andquality of life. The resilience concept hashelped to identify key elements, principally,that the problem cannot be solved withoutsocial cooperation in prevention, causeinvestigation and crime prosecution.

References 1. Buckle, p., Mars, G. and Smale, S.,

(2000). New approaches to assessingvulnerability and resilience. AustralianJournal of Emergency Management, Vol,15, No.2, pp 8-14.

2. DGB (Spanish Biodiversity Centre),(1997).Incendios forestales en Españacausados por factores naturales yagravados por la acción del hombre.Available on line at:http://www.monografias.com/trabajos29/incendios-forestales-espana/incendios-forestales-espana2.shtml. Access 15,April, 2008.

3. DGB (Spanish Biodiversity Centre),(2007).Balance y sistemas decooperación entre administraciones engrandes incendios 2007. Presentación deun curso implantado para proteccionCivil por la DGB en 2007.

4. ISTAS, (2005). Los incendios forestalesen España. Available at:http://www.lainsignia.org/2005/julio/ecol_003.htm.

5. IPCC, (2001). Third Assessment Reporton Climate Change. United Nations.Available on line.

6. IUCN, (2003). Future fires: perpetuatingproblems of the past. Arborvitae 2003.Available on line at:http://assets.panda.org/downloads/arborvitaefire.pdf

7. O´Brien, G., Read, P., (2005). Future UKemergency management: new wine, oldskin?. Disaster prevention andmanagement. Vol, 14. No.3, pp 353-361.

8. MMAA (Spanish Environmental Ministry),2007. Los incendios forestales en España.Balance del decenio 1995-2005.Available on line.

9. The guardian (2005). Arson conspiracybehind Spain fires. Available on line at:http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2005/aug/30/spain.gilestremlett. Access 21April 2008.

10. TVE (Television Española), 2005. Losincendios forestales en la Peninula Iberica.Serie de videos sobre la Naturalezadisponibles en el Ministerio de MedioAmbiente.

11. UN/ISDR (United Nations InternationalStrategy for Disaster Reduction), 2004.Living with Risk. A global review of disasterreduction initiatives. 2004 version. UnitedNations, Geneva, pp 430.

12. Watson, R.T. ed. (2001). Climate Change2001: Synthesis Report. CambridgeUniversity Press, pp 700.

13. WWF, 2006. Grandes incendiosforestales. Causas y efectos de unaineficaz gestión del territorio. Available online: www.adena.es

39

Turkey and its Hazard Profile

To better understand the relationship betweenthe national education system, climatechange training and the local governmentstructure in Turkey, it is necessary tocomprehend to a certain extent, the nationalprofile of the country. Hence, this paper firstprovides information on population,government structure and geography. It thenprovides an overall picture of Turkey’s hazardprofile and explains the role of climatechange.

Turkey is located in the southeast of Europe.It has a unique geographical location as itsborders liewith countries in Europe, Asia andthe Middle East. The political system is aParliamentary Democracy. Although a secularcountry, Turkey’s population is mostly Muslim.The country is subdivided into 81 provincesfor administrative purposes. These provincesare grouped into 7 geographical regions witheach province divided into districts.

Turkey is a member of the UnitedNations,NATO and OECD and is an associatemember of the European Community (CentralIntelligence Agency, 2008). Although Turkey’s

economy is growing, the gross domesticproduct (GDP) is one of the lowest in Europe(TurkStat, 2007). Economic growth is largelybuoyed by, andprimarily dependent upon,theprivate sector, including principally, heavyindustry and trade sectors, whereas,transport, communication and agriculturalsectors lag behind in terms of overalleconomic input.

The demographic profile of the country showsthat there are 70.5 million people inTurkey(based on statistics from 2007) and thecountry’s population is one of the youngest incomparison to other countries in the nearbygeographical region (TurkStat, 2008). 24.4% ofthe population is aged between 0 and 14years old. 68.6% of the population is aged

between 15 and 64 years old and only7% ofthe population is aged65 years and over.

School education in Turkey is compulsory.Children between 3 and 5 years old mayattend pre-primary education, whichisoptional. Compulsory education begins withchildren at the age of 6 through to 14.Secondary education follows on from primaryeducation and as in primary education, isprovided for four years. Higher education isgiven overtwo years. In Turkey, there are10,870,570 students enrolled in primaryeducation, 3,245,322 students in secondaryeducation and 2,291,762 students at facultiesof higher education as shown in Table 1(Ministry of National Education 2007).

Local Government Co-operation with Climate Change

Training in TurkeyMs. Nihan Erdoğan

*Corresponding author email: nihanerdgn@yahoo.com

Primary Education Secondary Education

Number of Number of Number of Number ofSchools Students Schools Students

Turkey 34,093 10,870,570 8,280 3,245,322

Istanbul 1,576 1,826,075 982 596,400

Table 1 Number of Students enrolled in Primary andSecondary Schools in Turkey and Istanbul

40

Turkey is a disaster prone countrywithelevated potential fora wide range ofgeophysical hazards (Eryılmaz et al., 2006).Earthquakes are the principal type of disaster(�skender & Erdoğan 2007).In fact, direct andindirect economic losses due to naturaldisasters in Turkey cost approximately 3-4%of country’s GNP (Şengezer & Kansu 2001).

Statistics show that between 1940 and 2000,out of 30% of all hydro-meteorologicaldisasters,27% were due toflood, 27% strongwinds, 8% linked to snowfall,2%tothunderstorms and1% attributed to heavyfog. Other disasterswere linked to a range ofother catastrophic weather related events(Ceylan 2007).Overall, Turkey’s highest risklies with the potential for severely damagingearthquakes. Lossof life and property iscommonplace when earthquakes occur,particularly in urbanised areas. Between 1900and 2000, 130 earthquakes with a magnitudeequal to, or greater than 5.5 on the Richterscale were recorded. More than 110,000people died, 250,000 people werehospitalised and 600,000 buildings badlydamaged or collapsed entirely (Erdik 2006).

Climate Change and Turkey

From the mid 1990s,various studies exploringarange of possible effects that could betriggered or exacerbated by achangingclimate were undertaken in Turkey. Inresponse, the Government of Turkey formedthe First National Communication on ClimateChange. Based on the first set of publishedfindings from the First NationalCommunication on Climate Change (Ministryof Environment and Forestry 2007),precipitation was predicted to decreasealong the Aegean and Mediterranean coastsand increase along the Black Sea coasts with

widespread increases in summertemperatures in the near future. Most affectedareas were pointed out as being thoselocated in western and southwestern parts ofTurkey. Coastal erosion, flooding andinundation along Turkish shorelines werenoted aspotential hazards, particularly in themiddle and eastern Black Sea region.

In Turkey, greater emphasis is often placedupon the reduction of greenhouse gasesrather than the underlying causes of climatechange. To address this, various legislativechanges have been made. Many educationalactivities have recently been advocated andimplemented throughout schools. TheMinistry of Environment and Forestry areresponsible for legal arrangements withrespect to the environment at the centrallevel, whereas other ministries have rolesrelated to climate change in their ownmunicipalities. At the national level, policiesfor the environment and climate change areproduced in the form of “Five YearDevelopment Plans”, prepared by the PrimeMinistry State Planning Organization. The lastdevelopment plan included the setting up ofan Environmental Special ExpertiseCommission and the recommendation offorming a national operation plan in line withthe UN Climate Change Operation Plan,which focuses on pollution prevention ratherthan pollution control (Ministry of Environmentand Forestry 2007).

The importance of mitigating climate changeand provision of climate changeas aneducational subject has increased since theearly millennium. This is largely due to theamendment and adaptation of environmentallaws in line with European Union practices.Various training schemes, workshops,seminars and other activities have beencarried out to increase awareness of climate

change among the community. There havealso been many meetings and other types ofevents to reach all concerned stakeholders inTurkey. Unfortunately, the number and type ofpublic awareness campaigns wereconstrained by various limitations includingfunding.

Nevertheless, the Ministry of NationalEducation has undertaken the role ofpromoting environmental education.Environmental education has been includedin the National Curriculum at various levels ofthe national education system. At thesecondary education level,environmentaleducation in the context of climate changehas been included and at the primaryeducation level, a compulsory one-hour aweek lesson has been incorporated. Climatechange has also been a subject explored andadvocated via vocational trainingprogrammes. For teachers, some in-housetraining courses have been conducted.Additionally, some non-governmentalorganisations serve as stakeholders inteaching environmental issues in schools.Non-governmental organisations also worknot only with the Ministry of NationalEducation but also with local governments atthe district level. They deliver training andseminars to students and teachers anddistribute a range of support materials forteaching, including storybooks, paintingbooks and games.

Conclusion

In Turkey, many progressive steps have takenplace over the last few years with respect toraising awareness of climate change.However, despite positive moves forward andTurkey’s increased adoption of EU standards,many challenges lie ahead. Climate change

41

in Turkey is a relatively modern issue that hasrecently gained increasing prominence,particularly, in the context of a stand-alonesubject within the national educationalsystem. Climate change is also becoming apopular issue among communities, whichhas its advantages and disadvantages.Principal advantages arisewhen primarystakeholders (for example, acommunity)become more open toparticipation within educational programmesthat children are taught.On the other hand,various projectsimplemented withoutengaging primary stakeholders, have beenhampered by top-down, non-participatorydelivery of climate change education tostudents.

Animportant factor is that in certain parts ofTurkey, other types of hazards are consideredby communities to have greater priority thanclimate change. Thus, it might be difficulttoinvolve and engage with somecommunities. Integration of climate changeissues within hazard training and/oreducational programmes may provide asolution in the short term. The involvement ofall stakeholders, as well as the cooperationand coordination of all, is crucial in ensuringthe efficacy of climate change education. Assuch, it should be questioned whetherenough cooperation and coordination existsamong all stakeholders within the realm ofclimate change education.

Another challenge is the level of consistencyin terms of what students are taught andwhether learning is consolidated at home,supported or abandoned. For instance,students generally learn about a host ofpreventative actions and fundamentalmeasures that can be applied to mitigateclimate change. However, at home studentsmay be discouraged in the application of

newly acquired knowledge,as parents, forinstance, may not have the same level ofawareness as children.

To conclude, it can be said that althoughmany steps have been taken to standardiseand improve the delivery of climate changeeducation for students, it remains a newtopic and still has room for improvement.Established, effective and well-deliveredsubjects, particularly earthquakeeducation,can be used as models of goodpractice for improving the design anddelivery of climate change programmes.

42

References1. Central Intelligence Agency. The World

Factbook: Turkey. 2008. (Access:https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/tu.html)

2. Ceylan, Abdullah. Time and RegionDistribution of Meteorological Disasters.State Meteorology Affairs GeneralManagement. 2007. (Unpublishedreport)

3. Erdik, M. Earthquake Vulnerability ofBuildings and a Mitigation Strategy: TheCase of Istanbul. (Demeter, K. Güner, A.Ekin Erkan, N. Editörler) The Role of LocalGovernments in Reducing the Risk ofDisasters, Second Edition, USA: TheInternational Bank For Reconstructionand Development/The World Bank, June2006, 111-130.

4. Erdoğan, N. �skender, H. 4 Years After:Terrorist Attacks in Turkey and theChallenges for the Future. Safety andSecurity International, Edition 6/2007. 4-5.

5. Eryılmaz, M. Kılıç, S. Erdoğan, N.Doğrucan, C. Geçer, T. Durusu, M.Bilgitekin, M. Bıyıklı DK, Boğaz, H. Güleç,MA, Uldağ, H. Coşkun, A. The TriageExercise Organizing and Make-up &Moulage Kit Application Course: AnkaraExperience. Turkish Journal of Disaster2006; 1(1): 27-32.

6. �skender, H. Erdoğan, N. The Evaluationof Media’s Role at Natural Disasters froma Disaster Management Perspective:Turkish Experience. Proceedings ofInternational Disaster ReductionConference 2007 Harbin-China, Qunyan

Press, 299-303.

7. Kadıoğlu, M. Global Climate Change andTurkey. Third Edition, GüncelPublications, Istanbul: March 2007.

8. Ministry of National Education StrategyDevelopment Presidency. NationalEducation Statistics Formal Education2007-2008. (Access:http://sgb.meb.gov.tr )

9. Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey TurkishStatistical Institute (TurkStat). GrossNational Product Statistics. 2007. (Access:http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Gosterge.do?metod=IlgiliGosterge&id=3487)

10. Prime Ministry Republic of Turkey TurkishStatistical Institute (TurkStat). The Resultsof 2007 Census. 2008. (Access:http://tuikapp.tuik.gov.tr/adnksdagitimapp/adnks.zul)

11. Şengezer, B. Kansu, H. ComprehensiveDisaster Management. Yıldız TechnicalUniversity Publications PublicationNumber: YTU.MF.YK-01.0627. Istanbul:2001.

12. The Ministry of Environment and ForestryGeneral Directorate of EnvironmentalDirectorate. First National Communicationon Climate Change. January 2007.(Access:http://www.iklim.cevreorman.gov.tr)

43

This paper outlines two distinct approachesto disaster education, namely independentand holistic. Ituses examples of disastereducation in Japan and the United Kingdom.Based on these examples and in light of thelikely increase in the risk of hazard eventsassociated with climate change, the paperexplores how two very different approachesmight be applied to pre-disaster planningand the mitigation of disasters.

The Challenge of Climate Change

Numerous internal and external factors driveclimate change. Global warming, in thecontext of ‘natural’, ongoing environmentalchange, independent of human activity isconsidered as an internal factor. In contrast,accelerated global warming resulting from,for instance,industrialisation that leadstoincreased levels of greenhouse gasesemissions (GHGs),is considered as anexternal contributory factor. Relationships

between internal and external factors are notalways transparent, especially at thelocalscale. It also remains difficult to projectimpacts resulting from climate change,although recently, the Fourth AssessmentReport of the IPCC suggests that an increasein severe climatic events around the world,especially, the frequency of heavyprecipitation events is likely.

There are significant differences between thecausal mechanisms of climate change andnatural hazards. Anthropogenicmechanisms triggering accelerated globalwarming can arguably be mitigated.Conversely, many natural hazards cannot beeasily mitigated, nor is an increase in naturaldisasters necessarily attributable to peoples’activities. In the global sense, climate changeis more open to effective pre-disasterplanning than other environmental hazardrisks.

Two Approaches to Disaster Education

As mentioned above, there are twodistinctively different approachesto disastereducation, one being independent and theother, holistic. The independentapproachfocuses onan individual hazard risk,which is taught separately. This isparticularly common in Japan and the UnitedStates where, for example, dangers ofhurricanes and typhoonsare generally taughtas separate subject matters. Earthquaketraining is also delivered separately.

The holistic approach, in contrast, is whenthe issue of risk is presented as arange ofissues that people may face. In doing so,this approach aims to bring together a rangeof aspects that may affect livelihood securityin any given disaster situation, within a broadand inclusive framework. Consequently, thespotlightis placed upon vulnerability of socio-economic systemsin that consideration is

Two Approaches to Disaster Education

Hideyuki Shiroshita

Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University

Research Affiliate, Disaster and Development Centre, Northumbria University

Introduction

44

given to the rate of exposure to, and the riskof, a wide range of hazards. Thus, risk can beviewed as a consequence of natural and/ortechnological hazards. For example, an everyday risk such as a traffic accident,thoughconsidered a technological hazard, whenconsidered within a holistic framework, isconsidered in parallel to a range of factors.This is because an accident may beexacerbated by either a singular factor, or anynumberof factors including perhaps,roadconditions to road type. The contextualisationof risk as a holistic problem is organic in that itdevelops over time, being both pre-emptiveand responsive. Pre-disaster planning thatincludes the role of emergency services(alsoknown as Blue Light Services) is commonwhen using the holistic approach. This kind ofpre-disaster planning is operational in theUnited Kingdom and generally includesawareness training,is integrated withineducational programmes as well as businesscontinuity planning.

In Japan, most schools have an independentapproach to risk that emphasises risk in theform of singular events. For instance,disastertraining is often provided in the form ofevacuation drills. Some schools are trying toadopt a more holistic approach as exemplifiedby the “Ozone Rescue Troop”.

Ozone Rescue Troup, Japan

What is the “Ozone Rescue Troop”? Ozone isa local name given to the city of Nagoya.Nagoya is currently under threat of a largeearthquake, widely predicted to strike in thenear future. The Ozone Rescue Troop deliversdisaster educational programmes to juniorhigh schools in Ozone/Nagoya on earthquakedynamics. However, lectures differ fromtraditional training programmes in that counter-

measures in pre-disaster planning, discussionof post disaster relief, rehabilitation andreconstruction are thoroughly explored.Lessons involve a series of learning tasks,whichare undertaken in participation with thelocal community. Educational practice usingthe Ozone approach includes mappinghousehold vulnerability, disaster reductionmapping, demonstration of rescueprocedures, and briefing on resources,whereevacuation centres are, as well as when andhow to use them.

Household vulnerability mapping entailsconducting safety assessments of housesand providing recommendations to reduceany identified risk/s. Household resourcesincluding water, food and portable lighting arealso assessed with a view to finding the bestpossible way to preserve essential resourcesand access in the case of an emergency.Self-help is advocated. For instance, thepractice of building ‘safety-hoods’ on homesthat protect people from falling masonry isactively encouraged. Additionally, disasterreduction mapping (which involves identifyingand quantifying levels of risk)looks at entirecommunities rather than relying solelyonindividual households.

Training delivered to rescue groups has agreat emphasis on life saving intervention.Aside from training given to save lives,training is also provided in terms ofoperational logistics, how services areprovided in hospitals and other emergencyinstitutions. Students are thus exposed to arange of scenarios and trained in aspectsincluding:conducting patient logs,first aid,reducing trauma levels of individuals andcommunities, through to wide scale,community epidemiology.Students are giventhe opportunity to familiarise themselves withthe layout and provisions available at existing

evacuation centres.Students in each localauthority also survey and conduct appraisalsof evacuation centres available to residents.

The Holistic Approach – A UK Case Study

The holistic approach to disaster educationwas explored in a series of seminars held inEdinburgh, Newcastle and London in 2007. Itwas shown that in the United Kingdom,generally, a cohesive and generic approachhad been adopted by both teachers andexternal representatives of the Blue LightServices, particularly, the Fire Service in thedelivery of risk-training programmes.

A case study of St David’s Primary School,Edinburgh,revealed that courses weredesigned to meet specific learning outcomesfor different age groups. The main themes,learning objectives and outcomes ofeducational programmes delivered tostudents of St David’s are detailed below.

For P1/ P2 (5/6 years old) a range of issueswere raised including:

• What causes fire?

• How can matches be dangerous?

• What should we do if our clothes go onfire?

• What action should be taken in the eventof a fire?

For P3/P4 (7/8 years old)a different set ofquestions were raised which implied thatchildren at this age were better equipped tocomprehend and follow through a range ofactions that should be taken in the event of afire. Questions included:

• Where should we go if fire strikes?

• What can help us get out of a building?

• How can we detect smoke quickly?

For P5/P6 (9/10 years old) discussion movedfrom a focus on fire in school to outside,including the home. The aim of exploringincidents that could occur outside the schoolenvironment was to better equip students todeal with and think of a range of alternativeevacuation procedures. At this level,exploration of a range of options isundertaken with a typical question being:

• What would we do in the event of a fire inour home?

Plate 1 shows P5/P6 children exploring arange of hazards that couldpotentiallygenerate significant fire risks.

At P7 (11 years old) focus is on learning bydoing. By visiting the Risk Factory, studentslearn about both general risk and evacuationprocedures but also about specific hazardsrelated to individual commercial activities.The range of scenarios investigated includes:Police, Home, Water, Electricity, Building Site,Farmyard, Fire, Railway, Transport, Road and Internet.

45

Plate 1 A Firefighter AddressingSchool Children

Plate 2 The Risk Factory Building

Plate 3 Road Safety Instruction

Plates 2 to 4 show the Risk Factory visitedby P7 students.

How Can weReduce Impacts ofClimate Change through DisasterEducation?

It has been demonstrated that a holisticapproach to disaster education may involve exploring vulnerability by locationdemographic profile assessments andappraisal of the socio-economic status of anarea in question,using both adaptation andmitigation measures. In developedcountries, retrofitted technologies can beused in disaster education programmes toillustrate how the impact of climate changecan be reduced.

Although the Kyoto Agreement focuses ontechno-centric approaches in dealing withenvironmental risk, considering theincreasing likelihood of disasters as a resultof anthropogenic climate change, the needto raise awareness of adaptation processes,including coping mechanisms at the locallevel,is as essential as mitigating hazard risksat local and national levels. As mitigation,generally requires technological input, whichis typically out of the reach of developingcountries reliant on knowledge transfer fromthe North, there is an urgent need to exploreadaptation planning within a structuralistframework of disaster education.

46

Plate 4 Demonstration of High Risk Wiring

47

Bangladesh is one of the most seriouslyaffected developing countries in the world interms of flooding. Frequency of floodingislikely to rise and become increasinglyhazardous with the onset of climate change.Until recently, many assumed that floodscould be prevented by building higher andstronger embankments. In the past, floodinundation maps were used as a basis uponwhich safety levels were defined. Amethodology based on the recurrenceperiods of floods resulted in the creation offlood maps. Presently, water managementbegins by lookingat where flooding occursand uses this informaiton as a foundation forpredicting where and to what extent floodingmay occur in the future.

Providing complete protection againstflooding in Bangladesh is not sociallyjustifiable (as it would involve the resettlmentof thousands of poeple), and due to the low-lying nature of land, itis not technically oreconomically viable.Investments in waterpolicy are still necessary but watermanagement is no longer limited to floodprevention at anycost.

Modern water management approaches aimto limit damage by ascertaining risk. Dhaka,the capital city of Bangladesh is surroundedby a network of rivers, which makes the cityvulnerable to flooding. After the 1988 flood,the western part of Dhaka City was protectedfrom river flooding by new embankments and

raised roads (JICA, 1991; Khan, 2006).However, despite protective measures forDhaka West, catastrophic floods in 1988 and2004 affected both the protected westernarea and the unprotected eastern part of thecity. The situation continues to deteriorate. Indesigning flood control measures reliantsolely on old flood inundation maps, theabsence of flood risk maps for reference andinformation provision generally constrainstheefficacy and design of existing floodcontrol systems.

To address the need to close theidentifiedgap, thisstudy aims at assessing flood riskcaused by the Balu-Tongikhal river system inthe eastern part of Dhaka City, which is

Spatial Assessment of Risk of RiverFlood in Dhaka City, Bangladesh

Animesh Kumar GAIN – Institute of Water & Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.

M. Mozzammel HOQUE – Institute of Water & Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering & Technology, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.

Martin J. BOOIJ – University of Twente, Faculty of Engineering & Technology, Water Engineering and Management, PO Box 217, 7500 AE Enschede, The Netherlands.

*Corresponding author e-mail: animesh.gain@gmail.com

Introduction

48

unprotected from river flooding. We presentan approach combining flood frequencyanalysis, hydrodynamic modelling and GIS toassess the risk of flooding in the study area.Finally, damage risk costs of the study areafor different return period floods have beencalculated and outlined in this paper.

The Study Area

The focus of this study is the Balu-Tongi khalriver system of the eastern part of Dhaka City.See Figure 1. The area of the basin stands124 km2 within the study area and isbordered by Old Demra Road to the south,Progati Sarani-Airport road to the west, Tongito the north and Purbachal to the east. Landelevation ranges between 0.5m and 7m(Public Works Datum).

Methodology

The method was developed based on theuse of hydrodynamic modelling (HEC-RAS)and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Itinvolves several steps: (1) flood inundationmapping using geo-informatics tools; and (2)the estimation of expected damage and riskin order to map flood events using GIS.

Data collection and pre-processing

Sources of information used for this studyinclude water level and discharge records,topographic and land use maps, indicators ofvulnerabilityand wealth(in the form offormulas) and given monetary valuationfiguresfor land and property. Water level anddischarge data was collected from threegauging stations managed by theBangladesh Water Development Board

Figure 1 Study Area

49

(BWDB). Spatial topographic data wasobtained from a wide variety of sources. ATriangulated Irregular Network (TIN) wasdeveloped using topographic data. By utilisingbathymetric surveys, river cross sections ofseveral locations were also digitised andused in the development of TIN. Ascertainingvulnerability via a formulaic function used byJICA (1991) which happened to bespecifically applicable to and appropriate forthe study area,was developedandincorporated into the study. Themonetary value of specific land and propertywas collected from secondary sources. Aprimary survey was also conducted to collectdata on the economic value of property.

Flood Inundation Mapping

All inundation mapping was accomplishedusing hydrodynamic model HEC-RAS,Geographic Information Systems and HEC-GeoRAS. In the study, HEC-GeoRAS createdan import file from TIN, referred to herein asthe RAS GIS Import File, containing river,reach and station identifiers; cross-sectionaloutlines; downstream reach lengths for theleft overbank, main channel, and rightoverbank. After importing the GIS processedfile into HEC-RAS, water surface profilecalculations for unsteady flow were carriedout. Standard hydrographs at upstreamboundaries for various return period floodsthat were generated by means of non-dimensional or normalised hydrographs incombination with cluster analysis (Apel et al.,2006). In the unsteady flow calculation, thesehydrographs were provided as an upstreamboundary. In the downstream boundary, therating curve was provided. For the subcriticalflow with a small change in cross-sectioncoefficients of contraction and expansion,assumed as 0.1 and 0.3 respectively. An

initial flow value has been given at theupstream boundary of the channel Balu Riverand Tongi Khal.

The focus of this study is the calibration ofManning’s roughness coefficients. Startingwith roughness value estimates given inChow (1959), flood data of 1988 was usedfor calibration of Manning’s n. After severaltrials the best-fit between simulated andobserved water levels was achieved usingManning’s values of 0.040 for the left bank,0.036 for the main channel and 0.041 for theright bank.

Using the calibrated roughness, HEC-RASwas run for thirty days with computationaltime intervals of 30minutes and detailedoutput intervals of one hour. The flood waterlevels obtained by the HEC-RAS model forvarious return periods were exported andoverlain onto each cross-section of TIN for thestudy area. By using HEC-GeoRAS, extensionof ArcGIS, raster based flood inundationmaps of various return periods was possiblevia a cell size of 20m. The flood inundationmap of 100-yr flood is shown in Figure 2.

Estimation of Expected Damage ofDesigned Flood Event

In the final step of risk assessment, theexpected damage rate of inundated landtypes based on land use was estimatedusing Equation 1.

Where D is the total direct property damageper cell of raster map, T is the return period

of a flood event, Vul is the vulnerability valueper cell which is function of Depth (DP) inmetres and Duration (DR) in days ofinundated land use categories, A is the areaof each cell in m2 and P is the property valuein monetary terms of each cell. For thevulnerability function,Vul, is the depth-duration-damage function of the study areadeveloped by JICA (1991) which wasincorporated into the study. The function isshown in Equation 2.

Where a, b1, and b2 occur, these are theregression coefficients of the JICA (1991)study. Land use and property value, P wascollected from respective Government andNon-Government authorities for the studyarea. For validating property value, a quicksurvey was conducted in the study area andfinally land useP was selected. For area A,400m2 was given as every grid size being20m. For each coefficient of the function,grid-based raster map was produced in theextent of flood inundation map. Then usingthe vulnerability function in raster calculatorof ArcGIS, a vulnerability map for designedflood was produced. Using Equation 1,raster-based expected damage map or riskmap was also prepared with the help of theraster calculator of GIS. For a risk map, seeFigure 3. Finally, expected annual damagecost was found by taking the product of theprobability that an event of magnitude willoccur in any given year, and the damage thatwould result from that event, and integratingboth for the design level. Then, damage riskcosts for different design return floods werecalculated and shown in Figure 4.

50

Figure 2 Flood Inundation Map of 100-yr Return Period Figure 3 Expected Damage Map of 100-yr Return Period Flood

51

Discussion

In the expected damage map (Figure 3),expected damage value (BDT/cell) isclassified into five defined classes, whichindicate levels of risk of the study area.These are detailed in Table 1. The areaoccupied by different risk classes is alsoshown in Table 1. From Figure 3, it is evidentthat the risk class of ‘Low’ covers most of thestudy area. The land use category defined asagriculture, fell under the risk class that is verymuch susceptible to damage. Yet, this zonefalls under the lowest expected damage valuebecause economic value of agriculturalgoods is very much lower when compared tothe value of other land use classes. Risk class‘Very Low’ presents the lowest expecteddamage value because the area is occupiedmostly by open water or open space.Conversely, ‘Very High’ risk zones indicatewhere land is categorised as having thegreatest economic value but recognised asthemost vulnerable area in terms ofpossiblefiscal damage (these high risk zonescover 692 ha of land). Figure 4 illustrates thatwith the increase of designed return perioddamage risk costs are reducing.

Conclusion

In comparison to classical inundation maps,flood risk maps generate more informationabout flooding events because they accountfora range of potential effects of flooding(forexample, risk maps may facilitate economicloss projections in target areas). Plannersand decision makers may find results of thisstudy useful for framing an appropriate floodrisk management plan in the eastern side ofDhaka City.

Acknowledgements

The research reported here represents partof ongoing academic research work by thefirst Author at the Institute of Water and Floodmanagement, Bangladesh University ofEngineering & Technology. The Authors arevery grateful to anonymous reviewers for theirinvaluable suggestions and comments.

Figure 4 Damage Risk Costs for Different Return Period Floods

Table 1 Area Occupied by Various Risk Classes

Expected damage Expected damage Area covered class or risk class value (BDT/cell) (ha)

Very Low < 19.50 4553

Low 19.50 – 20.00 5779

Medium 20.00 – 100.00 76

High 100.00 – 350.00 1021

Very High > 350.00 692

52

1. Apel, H., Thieken, A.H., Merz, B. andBlöschl, G. (2006). “A probabilisticmodeling system for assessing floodrisks”, Natural Hazards, Vol. 38, pp. 79-100.

2. Chow, V.T. (1959). Open ChannelHydraulics, McGraw Hill, New York.

3. JICA (1991). Master plan for greaterDhaka flood protection project, FAP 8A,Main Report and Supporting Report-II,Japan International Cooperation Agency,Dhaka.

4. Khan, M.S.A. (2006). “StormwaterFlooding in Dhaka City: Causes andManagement.” Journal of Hydrology andMeteorology, SOHAM-Nepal, 3(1), pp.77-85.

References

53

India’s richness in biological resources andrelated indigenous knowledge is wellrecognised. In India, formal policies andprogrammes for conservation and sustainableutilisation of natural resources date backseveral decades. Concepts of environmentalprotection are enshrined in Articles 48a and51a(g) of the Indian Constitution.Conservation and sustainable use ofbiological resources based on localknowledge, systems and practices are alsoingrained within Indian culture. Despiteknowledge of biodiversity richness at the localscale, little is known at the national scale, aslarge information gaps exist. To date,approximately 65 percent of the totalgeographical area of India has beentaxonomically surveyed. Over 46,000 speciesof plants and 81,000 species of animalswereclassified by the Botanical Survey of India(BSI) (established in 1890 and the Zoological

Survey of India (ZSI), established in 1916respectively). The Forest Survey of India,established in 1981, assessed forest cover,with a view to develop an accurate databasefor planning and monitoring purposes.According to an estimate, (BSI 1983) about 30percent of all identified plant species areendemic to India. The mountainous region ofthe Eastern Ghats has also been identified asbeing particularly rich in endemic species(MacKinnon and MacKinnon 1986). AProjecton Study, Survey and Conservation ofEndangered Plants (POSSCEP) estimated3000-4000 plant species as being undervarying degrees of threat. Additionally, the reddata book of the International Union for theConservation of Nature and NaturalResources (IUCN)lists and categorises manyplants and animals occurring in various partsof India (Nayar and Shastri 1987).

In India, the Ministry of Environment andForests has recently launched a project todocument the country’s rate of biodiversitywith the aim of developing an action plan toprotect India’s biodiversity, known as theNational Biodiversity Action Plan. In otherrecent attempts, biogeographical regions ofIndia have been mapped into ten zones. TheWildlife Institute of India has detailed theseregions on the Survey of India (SOI) digitaldatabase. An established method ofbiodiversity conservation is the protected areaconcept, which lacks many integralcomponents. Most cases of biodiversity lossin India have been attributed to habitat loss,over exploitation, the introduction of invasivespecies and lack of any national land usepolicy. Accordingly, it isimperative that aconcerted effort is made to ascertain India’sbiodiversity,spatially and temporally.

An Emerging Geospatial Databasefor Biodiversity and Climate Change

Studies – Indian PreparednessDr P.K. Joshi

TERI University, New Delhi 110 003 India

*Corresponding author email: pkjoshi@teri.res.in and pkjoshi27@hotmail.com

Introduction

54

Emerging geospatial databases

The climatic control of forest vegetation is welldocumented (Mueller-Dombois and Ellenberg1974). Physiography, topography, climaticvariation and human intervention largelyinfluence the distribution of vegetation andbiodiversity. Developments in remote sensing,GPS, GIS and communication tools enable theintegration of spatial and non-spatialinformation for defining habitats and improvingvegetation type descriptions in space andtime. A review of GIS and databases forvegetation mapping and monitoring outlinedby Skole etal. (1993). It is also possible todevelop geospatial models using multicriterionto map disturbance regimes andlandscape diversity. Landscape ecology hasevolved in line with geospatial modellingtechniques. The advantage of havingincreased access to information, modelling,and visualisation tools at the finger tips of auser aids the advancement of science,accelerates the discovery process, andenhances the quality of science andeducation. Steps used in Geoinformatics forcreating Biodiversity Information Systems areshown in Figure 1.

Geospatial Databases forBiodiversity and Climate ChangeStudies – Indian Preparedness

Vegetation Characterisation

Spatial information provides definitions ofvegetation patches, which are related tophenological types, gregarious formations andcommunities occurring in each uniqueenvironmental setup. The temporalrepresentation helps in monitoring landscapeprocesses (Delcourt and Delcourt, 1988).

Figure 1 Geoinformatics for biodiversity information system – Indian context

55

Recent improvements in spatial resolution ofthe spatial arrangement of land cover andvegetation type aids clarification (Chuvieco,1999). Biophysical spectral modellingtechniques enable stratification of vegetationtypes based on canopy closure (Roy et al.,1996). Such approaches allow monitoring offorest conditions and degradation processes.Temporal SPOT Vegetation and MaximumValue Composite (MVC) of NormalisedDifference Vegetation Index (NDVI) have beenexplored to prepare land cover maps (Stibiget al., 2007). Classifications are based on theFood Aid Organistion’s Land CoverClassification System (FAO LCCS). In a similarattempt, monthly IRS WiFS data has beenexplored to prepare a vegetation type covermap of India (Joshi et al., 2006). Theseinitiatives have been undertakenindependently of the national forest coverassessment exercise. During 1983,assessment of the forest cover of the country,based on satellite data interpretation was oneof the most important initiatives of the NationalRemote Sensing Agency (www.nrsa.gov.in). InIndia, the country’s total forest coverassessment was first undertaken usingLandsat - MSS false color data sets (from1972-75 and 1980-1983 periods) tocategorise forest cover into different densityclasses on a 1:1 million scale. From 1987, theForest Survey of India (FSI) took over the taskof providing biennial assessments(www.fsi.nic.in).

Landscape dynamics

In a study of Meghalaya (a state in northeastern India), satellite remote sensing usingsources derived from vegetation and land usemaps of years 1980, 1989 and 2000 wereused to characterise land dynamics. Ahierarchical geospatial model attempted to

map the status of land dynamics over twodecades (Talukdar 2004). Another initiative byLele (2007) assessed forest cover maps overthree decades for the entire northeasternregion of India, in order to understandlandscape dynamics and impacts of soilerosion processes. These characterisationsprovide valuable input to conservation, as theregion is one of the largest biodiversityhotspots. The region is also facing severehuman induced disturbances due toinappropriate and intensive agriculturalpractices, limestone quarries and timberextraction.

Biodiversity characterisation at the landscapelevel

Biodiversity characterisation at the landscapelevel was attempted in three phases. Phase Isurveyed the northeastern region of India, thewestern Himalayan region, Western Ghatsand the Andaman Nicobar Islands. Phase IIlooked at central India and the eastern coastof India. Phase III was executed innorthwestern India and remaining parts of thecountry. The study is scientifically significantas large, diverse landscapes have beenanalysed spatially and results onfragmentation, disturbance regimes andbiological richness were observed. Findingsrevealed that highly fragmented forests havefewer plant species, reduced evidence ofhuman activity and newer community typesthan medium and low fragmented forests.This research concludes by highlighting thatfindings indicate that slow fragmentationproduces a decreasing trend in plant speciesdiversity. The landscape perspective isfundamental to understanding the role ofdisturbance. Disturbance regimes vary acrosslandscapes as a function of topography andsubstrate. The study also looks at species

niche modelling and habitat assessment ofselected species.

Biodiversity Information System (BIS)

The Department of Biotechnology (DBT) andDepartment of Space (DOS) havecollaboratively studied biodiversitycharacterisation. Main objectives of thisproject were to identify bio-rich areas, evaluateforest types for their value (in terms ofbiodiversity richness) and to provide locationinformation of economically important speciesfor bio-prospecting. The primary outcome ofthis project was to provide useful informationto forest managers, decision makers andnational institutes involved in genetic diversityand bio-prospecting. The BiodiversityInformation System aims to provide user levelinformation regarding biodiversity hotspots. Itwas agreed that in addition to biodiversitycharacterisation, information should be madeavailable and accessible to aid decision-making, monitoring and management ofvarious resources. It is for this reason that theBiodiversity Information System wasconceptualised as a 5-component unit,namely: (i) BioSPATIAL (Biodiversitycharacterization at Landscape Level); (ii)BIOSPEC (Bio-prospecting and MolecularTaxonomy Programme); (iii) FRIS (ForestResource Information System); (iv) PhytoSIS(Species Information System); and (v) BioconSDSS (Spatial Decision Support System forBiodiversity Conservation Prioritization).

GAP analysis for conservation prioritisation

One of the most important components ofbiodiversity conservation in light ofanthropogenic pressure and climate changeis to maintain continuity of natural landscapes,

56

vital corridors and natural plant communitysettings. This approach will provide habitats toassociated life forms - a basic requirement forin-situ conservation. Visualisation of the naturallandscape model helps to simulate theassociation. Satellite imagesprovide vitalinformation for spatio-temporal scenarios andhelp in simulating natural settings. Conservingdiversity requires specific efforts to restoregaps created by natural or anthropogenicprocess. Overlaying habitat maps, biologicalrichness data and existing protected areanetwork information could show where gapsexist in landscape conservation. Suchinformation is vital to policy makers andplanners in developing networks of protectedareas that represent all habitats.

Gap Analysis in forest stands - Spatial forestgap analysis allows spatial correlationbetween various sizes of canopy and indicatesgaps in species richness. These canopy gapsare created due to natural processes of trees,disease damage or clearing of a single tree orgroup of trees. High resolution satelliteimageryis of immense value in providinginformation on varying gap sizes, communitystructures and ascertaining whether alterationof forests have occurred as a result of naturalor man made events. In-depth information inthe context of identified gaps is thus likely tobe of immense value, particulary, forinstance,in programmes of reforestation.

Discussion

Ecological approaches in setting priorities forbiodiversity conservation generally seek toprotect most species within conservationareas that are representative of a region’snatural habitat. Ecosystem approaches inidentifying conservation priorities involve theuse of numerous criteria such as species

richness, endemism, abundance, uniquenessand representativeness. It also considers thephysical environment, ecological processesand disturbance regimes that help to defineecosystems (Roy and Tomar, 2000). Theconservation priority setting variesconsiderably due to the complexity ofbiodiversity and the number of ways of valuingit. Among the biological criteria are: richness(the numberof species or ecosystems in givenarea), rarity, threat (degree of harm or danger),distinctiveness (how much a species differsfrom its nearest relative), representativeness(how closely an area represents a definedecosystem) and function (the degree to whicha species or ecosystem affects the ability ofother species or ecosystems to persist). Somepriority setting approaches use social, policyand institutional criteria. Utility, the mostcommon non-biological criteria, points tobiodiversity elements of known or of potentialuse to humankind. Feasibility is oftenconsidered paramount in deciding how toallocate conservation resources. Geospatialtools can suggest actions that are most likelyto succeed when taking into account social,political and institutional frameworks.

Goals and scales of inventory and monitoringprogrammes may change with time. Hence,the baseline data at landscape levels shouldbe sufficiently robust to accommodatechanges. It should be based on samplesenabling calibration for future rapid biodiversityassessment. Landscapes contain all levels ofthe biological hierarchy, ranging from wholeecosystems to species and genes that aretargeted for biodiversity inventories andconservation. This effort to characterisevegetation cover, fragmentation, disturbanceand biological richness across landscapes is aunique initiative at the national level. Thedatabase is also organised in the form of aBIS. BIS enables the identification of gaps,

species/habitat relationship and aidsbiodiversity conservation planning by settingpriority areas. Such a database coupled withdetailed site-specific field inventories providesvaluable information on bio-prospecting.

Baseline information generated in the DOS-DBT project has relevance to the internationalprogramme on biodiversity conservation andmanagement. DIVERSITA’s (an internationalinitiative on biodiversity assessment) issuesfocused on by DIVERSITA’s core project onGlobal Invasive Species programmes (GISP)and the Global Mountain BiodiversityAssessment (GMBA) coincide with Indianinitiatives, addressed by the Department ofSpace/Department of Biotechnology project(DOS-DBT). Biological diversity is consideredessential for fully functioning ecosystems andthis dependency is likely to increase asenvironmental conditions change. Changingenvironments, especially inmountains,combined with ever increasingchanges and pressures on land usehavecaused ecosystems in mountainsto rankamong the most endangered landscapes,worldwide.

Finally, the emerging geospatial databaseprovides a platform upon which to recordthese changes in space and time. Variedsatellite systems allow the creation of aninformation base that can be applied at global,regional and local levels. The Indian SpaceProgramme has developed indigenous, stateof the art platforms, which ensure thecontinuity of data products. Landscapeecological concepts and tools for geospatialanalyses, principally, GIS, have helped us tounderstand biodiversity distribution in regionsacross various spatial and temporal scales.

57

1. BSI, (1983) Flora and Vegetation of India –An outline. Botanical Survey of India,Howrah, pp2331-2346.

2. Chuvieco, E. (1999) Measuring changes inlandscape pattern from satellite images :short-term effects of fire on spatial diversity.International Journal of Remote Sensing20(12):2331-2346.

3. Delcourt, H.R. and Delcourt, P. A. (1988)Quaternary landscape ecology : relevantscales in space and time. LandscapeEcology 2: 23-44.

4. Joshi, P.K., Roy, P.S., Singh, S., Agrawal, S.and Yadav, D. (2006) Vegetation covermapping in India using multi-temporal IRSWide Field Sensor (WiFS) data. RemoteSensing of Environment103(2): 190-202.

5. Lele, N. (2007) Forest cover dynamics inNortheast India and its impact on erosionprocess: a study in selected sub-watershed. Ph.D. Thesis. Indian Institute ofRemote Sensing, Dehradun, India

6. MacKinnon, J. and MacKinnon, K. (1986)Review of the Protected Areas System inthe Indo-Malayan Realm. InternationalUnion for the Conservation of Nature andNatural Resources, Gland, ASwitzerlandand Cambridge, U.K. 284p.

7. Muller-Dembois, Dietor and Ellenberg,D.H. (1994) Aims and Methods ofVegetation Ecology. John Wiley & Sons,New York.

8. Nayar, M.P. and Shastry, A.R.K. (1987) Reddata Book of Indian Plants, Vol. 1. BotanicalSurvey of India. Calcutta. 367 pp.

9. Roy, P.S. and Tomar, S. (2000) BiodiversityCharacterisation at Landscape level usingGeospatial Modelling Technique.Biological Conservation Vol. 95 No. 1, pp95-109.

10. Roy, P.S. and Joshi, P.K.(2003) LandscapeEcology and Biodiversity Conservation.In: Geoinformatics for TropicalEcosystems. Ed. Roy, P.S., Bishen SinghMahendra Pal Singh, Dehradun. pp 259-308.

11. Roy, P.S., Sharma, K.P. and Jain, A. (1996)Stratification of forest density in drydeciduous forest using satellite remotesensing digital data – an approach basedon spectral indices. Journal ofBiosciences21(5): 723-734

12. Skole, D.L., Moore, B. and Chomentowski(1993) Global geographic informationsystems. In: Vegetation Dynamics andGlobal Change. Ed. Solomon, A.M. andShrugart, H.H. Chapman and Hall, NewYork. Pp 168-189.

13. Stibig, H., A. Belward, P.S. Roy, U.Rosalina-Wasrin, S. Agrawal, P.K. Joshi, R.Hildanus Beuchle, S. Fritiz, S. Mubarekaand C. Giri (2007). A land cover map ofSouth and Southeast Asia derived fromSPOT-4 VEGETATION data. Journal ofBiogeography34: 625-637.

14. Talukdar, G.(2004). Geospatial Modellingof Shifting Cultivation InducedLandscapes of Meghalaya. Ph.D. Thesis.University of Pune, Pune, India.

References

58

A Changing Climate: Developing Community Resilience

in the UK

In 2003 the UK government commissionedthe Foresight Report (FR). The FR examinedhow the risk of flooding might increase. Thereport concluded that climate change couldaffect rainfall patterns, with a predicted 2 to 4fold increase in the risk of flooding across thecountry over the next 100 years (Office ofScience and Technology, 2004). The SternReview, which examined the economics ofclimate change, suggested that the cost offlood events to the UK economy could risefrom the current estimate of £1 billion to £27billion by the end of the century. This couldbe reduced only with heavy financialinvestment (Stern Review, 2007).

Three major flooding events have defined theescalation of environmental impacts over thelast decade, being the city of York in 2000,Carlisle in 2005 and UK wide flooding in2007. The York flood event was considered tobe large scale during its occurrence inSeptember of 2000, affecting approximately40 households (City of York Council, 2004).

The Carlisle flood five years later wouldredefine the thresholds for responserequirements. The event resulted in 3 deaths,1,925 flooded properties and the evacuationof 3,000 people. 1 year later, only 50% ofpeople had returned to their homes. Thefinancial cost was estimated at £6.7millon,but the cost of restoration is estimated tohave reached £250 million (CumbriaResilience, 2005).

The trend of larger scale flooding events andsubsequent impacts escalated during thesummer of 2007. The months of May, Juneand July were the wettest ever recorded with111mm of rain falling over a period of 24hrs,at a rate 5.8 times higher than average for themonth (The Pitt Riview, 2007). Floodingdamaged approximately 55,000 properties.Emergency agencies responded but wereoverwhelmed by the scale and duration ofsupport required. Figure 1 is taken from thePitt Review 2007 and illustrates the mainareas affected by the flooding.

Robert Bell and Joseph McFarland, London Borough of Hounslow Contingency Planning Unit

Laura Pole and Matt Innerd London Borough of Hounslow G.I.S. and Design Centre

Introduction

Figure 1 (The Pitt Riview, 2007)

In the northeast of the country, the city ofHull was submerged. Not only homes wereaffected. Of the city’s 99 schools, only 8where left undamaged. In central Englandthe severity of the event resulted insignificant damage to infrastructure, leaving48,000 homes without power and potablewater for periods of up to 17 days.(SevernTrent Water, 2007). 40 million bottles ofwater were distributed over an area of3,150km² (Gloucestershire County Council,2007).

In addition to flash flooding, temperaturelevels in the UK have been steadilyincreasing since records began in 1772.Temperatures have increased since 1980 by1º Celsius over each decade (Figure 2Parker & Horton, 2005). During August2003, Europe experienced the hottestsummer temperatures for an estimated 500years (Met Office, 2008). Throughout Juneand August of 2003, temperatures were20% to 30% above normal with a maximumof 38.1º C. High temperatures causedextensive loss of life across Europe with anestimated total of over 30,000 fatalities. Oneof the worst effected countries was Francewith deaths in excess of 14,000. The elderlyand vulnerable were at the most risk due tolimited access to warnings and lack ofsuitable facilities (UNEP, 2003). Heatwaveconditions also exacerbated forest fires andcaused disruption to infrastructure, themelting of road networks and damage topower stations. The estimated cost from thehigh death toll and infrastructure damage isestimated to be in the region of €13 bn(UNEP, 2003). The UK experienced a 17%rise in the number of recorded deaths ofelderly people. 2,091 of these deaths wereattributed to complications directly relatedto heat wave conditions (Jonson, 2005).

59

Figure 2 (Parker & Horton, 2005)

Figure 3 (The Hadley Centre , 2005)

60

A Changing Climate

In 2003, heat mainly affected vulnerablemembers of the population. Shouldtemperature levels continue to rise, heatwaveconditions will become more common. Figure3 is taken from the research carried out bythe UK Met Office Climate research centre(The Hadley Centre, 2005).

The changing climate introduces anotherpotential risk to the UK. Increasingtemperatures could lead to changes inecosystem dynamics that are morefavourable to non-indigenous species, whichcould change pest epidemiology (Walther,Post, & Menzel, 2002). This is a key concernfor the risk of diseases that are transmitted byinsects. For instance, gradual temperatureincreases have led to an increase inmosquitoes. This increases the possibility ofemerging public health issues from virusesand parasites transmitted by mosquitoes andticks (McMichael & Campbell-Lendrum,2003). This could see the emergence ofmalaria and lyme disease. Suspected casesof each have already been found in Europe.Confirmation of an increase in the likelihoodof infestation and subsequent disease areexpected.

Climatologists are attempting to predictenvironmental conditions for the medium andlong-term. Current predictions suggest thatclimate change will increase the frequency,intensity and duration of environmentaleffects. These changes have the potential toreduce early warning, overwhelm respondercapabilities and reduce the time available forrecovery. The UK has already witnessed thechange from rapid onset to immediate onsetevents. For example, the village of Boscastlewas destroyed during the 2003 floods. Thesame area was affected during the 2007flooding, as restoration activities were

underway and subsequently destroyed.(Environment Agency 2004).

Emergency Response

Emergency preparedness measures in theUK are based upon risk assessment.Legislation requires emergency respondersto work together to identify localised risks.This process is undertaken by compiling riskregisters. Identifying the impacts andlikelihood of potential hazards drivesmitigation activities in a given area. Throughrisk assessment at national and local levels,UK response agencies have also been ableto determine planning requirements.However, the process of risk assessmentcaptures current hazards and does notincorporate forecasting for longer-term risks.As risk assessment relates to a specific pointin time and its supporting data is based onhistorical evidence of events in the area, theprocess remains reflective. Assessments alsoinclude those hazards, which are generic, orare not tied to any geographic area, forexample, major storms,human pandemic ormajor fires. The process is considered to beincomplete in its aim to determinepreparedness requirements for the area.

With any large scale disaster or emergencythe identification of those who are particularlyvulnerable before, during and after theincident is critical. Those categorised asbeing more vulnerable are considered to beat greater risk. A key characteristic ofvulnerability is the level of dependency of anindividual or family. Those that rely on localgovernment, voluntary agencies andextended family support on a day-to-daybasis are more likely to require additionalsupport during and after an emergency ordisaster. Community preparedness in the UK

as a whole is significantly under developed.This is compounded by the false assumptionthat emergency responders have thecapacity to manage all impacts of an event.Public opinion places sole responsibility fordisaster mitigation upon the respondingagencies, and little to none on individuals,families and communities. Informal supportmechanisms are only tested in the event ofan incident and are often insufficient in theircapacity to assist.

Hazard and Vulnerability inCommunities

As there is limited experience of large-scaleevents in the UK, many of the population arecomplacent about their level of vulnerability.For communities to be more resilient, greaterawareness of hazards and details of how tobe prepared for their effects is required. To beeffective, groups must be targeted to makeinformation appropriate and relevant. InHounslow, studies have been undertaken toidentify indicators of vulnerability within agiven area, as current risk based planningdoes not incorporate characteristics ofvulnerability.

A vulnerability assessment includes thoseelements of an area that relate to the statusof the community in question. Theseelements are categorised and divided intohealth, social, economic and environmentalindicators to adequately illustrate the degreeof vulnerability in a given area. Table 1 (page 62) outlines categorised vulnerabilityindicators.

61

Social vulnerability Definition

High proportion of those who do not speak the local language Inability to understand early warnings, mix with other groups and communicate

High proportion of transient/internal migrant population Unaware of local hazards, unlikely to have family or supportmechanisms in the area

Extremes of population density Extremes of population. Either areas of high density or low density

Lack of education Effects peoples ability to understand impacts and access information

Low number of voluntary organizations Lack of social support

Lack of access to transport services Inability to move freely, for example to find work and access support

Environmental vulnerability

High proportion of the area is developed Increased likelihood of surface water flooding

Large number of manufacturing sites

Low proportion of exposed ground Less ground available to retain moisture in the soil. Thusincreasing likelihood of doubt.

Economic vulnerability

Large proportion of the local population employed in If the business is disrupted a large proportion of people may one industry/organization become unemployed

Lack of access to funds (credit, savings, employment) Poor means of financial support following a large incident

High number of independent businesses/sole traders Loss of customer base and supply disruption forcing closure

Large proportion of the local population employed in the local area Local unemployment

Health vulnerability

High proportion of people living with a long-term illness Greater support required

High proportion of disabled people People may be at increase risk because of their disability

Low proportion of health facilities People unable to easily access medical support

High proportion of elderly/infirm Large at risk group

Table 1 – Vulnerability indicators by category

62

Many diverse communities populate theLondon Borough of Hounslow. The estimatedpopulation is approximately 220,000. Of thisnumber, 29.2% were born outside of the UK.Statistics show that the population is mainlywhite British comprising64.9%, which issignificantly lower than the national averageof 91.3%. The second largest ethnic group isfrom the Indian sub continent, being 29.6%.The four main religious groups are Christians,Muslims, Sikhs and Hindus. Areas inHounslow differ too. Some areas areconsidered affluent and others deprived.

Often these two groups live very close to oneanother. In order to better understand wherekey areas of vulnerability are located, differentfactors were mapped. For example, multipledeprivation indicators (which combinesocio-economic data to provide an indicator ofpoverty) were used. Darker areas indicatehigher levels of deprivation. See Figure 4.

Maps were prepared taking into account anumber of factors that could representvulnerablity in its different forms. The

current version of the vulnerablity mapcontains 5 indicators: (i) those with a limitinglong-term illness; (ii) those seekingemployment;(iii) indices of multipledeprivation; (iv) population density; and (v)age. Age data includes children under theage of 5 and adults over 70.

Each vulnerability indicator was ranked.Darker colours occur where a number ofdifferent indicators rank highly in that area.Maps only indicate areas of increasedvulnerability but greatly assist targetedplanning. The method can also be used formapping vulnerability to a particular hazard.For example, mapped areasshowingconcentrations of elderly and the very youngcould be useful for emergency response

Figure 4 Incides of Multiple Deprivation 2007

Figure 5 Emergency Planning Vulnerability Map

63

during severe weather events and useful forpre-disaster planning and training.Onceareas have been identified as being morevulnerable they can be targeted, withdifferent methods for raising awareness. Thiscould be in the form of a media campaign, orby visiting community groups and schools ina given area.

The process of hazard mapping is wellestablished throughout the disastermanagement discipline. Maps have beensuccessfully used to engage at-riskpopulations in preparedness activities.Using the same process in identifying thedegree of vulnerability for a given area, weapplied a rank system of grading localgeographic risks. See Figure 5.

Populations are more likely to prepare forone type of hazard if given a map indicatingsingular hazards and/or riskswithin givenareas. Whilst beneficial, this is not the aim ofthe process as raising resilience to all hazardtypes is the primary and long-term goal.Information on hazards needs to beaccessible to all regardless of education orcultural backgrounds.

Providing an image of combined multiplehazards allows populations to relate todangers in the vicinity of their home andworkplace. Types of hazard in Hounslowinclude floodplains, flash flooding, largeindustrial sites, high-pressure pipelines andpotential aircraft accident risks (all ofHounslow is under the flight path ofHeathrow airport). These were ratedaccording to probability and mapped overthe area. Figure 6 shows the Hounslowhazard map. Where hazard areas overlapthe colour is darker.

The vulnerability and multiple hazard mapswere combined to produce a risk and

vulnerability map. As with the previous maps,the darkest areas are where there is highestvulnerability but this is combined with highestrisk levels. This type of information allowstarget planning of the most at-risk groups.The combination map is not meant for publicuse but as a tool to aid planning. However,local knowledge shows that the map hasenough accuracy to be used as a planningguide. This exercise could also be carriedout post disaster, with data collected from acommunity impact assessment. This datacan be used to produce dynamicvulnerability mapping, allowing for betterallocation of resources to the most at riskgroups/areas.

Conclusion

People are made more vulnerable not only bytheir ability to cope with a large incident, butalso the means by which they have torecover from it. Individual, family andcommunity characteristics of vulnerability donot change significantly when based on thehazard type. If you are poor, you arevulnerable to any natural hazard eventoccurring in your area. If you are disabled,your ability to take necessary action followingan early warning will be limited. The level ofvulnerability (post incident) will bedetermined by the severity of the event inquestion. By identifying the characteristicsand levels of vulnerability pre-event, our

Figure 6 Hazard and Vulnerability Map 2008

64

ability to reach and maintain a consistentlevel of resilience is improved.

To build a resilient community, an indicator ofresilience is required. To achieve this, acombination of different factorsis required inorder toevaluate the state of a community’sreslience. The UK’s Place Survey assessesperceptions and the understanding ofresponse and resilience measures across thecountry. Although useful, additionalmeasurements are essential for identifyinglevels of preparedness. For example, thenumber of people from a given area that havesigned up to volunteer schemes, the numberof and attendance at community meetings,subscription to early warning systems and soforth.

Through enhancing the provision ofemergency management materials toschools, both short and long-term resilienceis improved. By ensuring that educationalmaterial applies to all school children andmaking the content specific to the local area,the information is more likely to be retainedand applied within the home environment.Theinsurance and financial services sectors canalso play integral role with respect toindividual and familial resilience. Businessservices can act as a regulator for resiliencemeasures by, for instance, requiring riskreduction measures to be implementedbefore home loans or insurance certificatesare awarded.

New approaches in the UK focus onincorporating emergency response andcommunications networks into all voluntaryand community groups at the local level. Foremergency management to be effectivewithin communities it must become a regularoccurrence, for information to be retainedand to maintain accurate, up to date skills, alevel of familiarity with procedures needs to

be refreshed at frequent intervals. Conversely,a community group dedicated solely toemergency management would encompasslimited areas of the community and could beinactive for long periods of time, leading toreduced interest and commitment. Thepurpose of any group and its contribution tothe community should be assessed focusingon what are the positive and negativeconsequences of resilience building within acommunity and how normal activities may beaffected. This should lead to an impactassessment of the potential areas ofinfluence of a group or committee. At regularintervals emergency management should bediscussed highlighting predicted hazards,changes to community structure orprocedures and seasonal differences.

Subsides and grants to local voluntarygroups and committees should be issuedwith conditions which enhance resilience.Community engagement incentives can beoffered to individuals who promote anunderstanding of the hazards andvulnerability of the area in question.

A changing climate presents the UK with anincreased risk of extreme events. Theseevents will have a long-term effect on peopleand communities. There is little that can bedone to reduce the probability, severity andextent of environmental hazards occurring.Efforts are better placed in ensuring that allcommunities have an adequate level ofresilience. Changes in social patterns havetraditionally moved at a faster rate thanchanges to environmental conditions. Socialcharacteristics are also easier and more costeffective to assess than environmentalconditions. Planners can do little to changethe environmental conditions that areexpected. However, there is the opportunityto change social conditions through

enhancing resilience measures. Our ability tochange social patterns is better than ourability to anticipate and mitigate the effects ofclimate change. Reducing vulnerability andimproving the resilience of individuals andfamilies through their communities provideslong-term benefits both for disastermanagement and social cohesion. Resilienceprovides the ability to adapt in a challengingclimate and maintain a functional communitythrough adversity. The long-term aim is tobring all levels of the community to amaximum standard of resilience.

65

1. City of York Council. (2004). Final ReportFlood scrutiny Panel. City of York Council.

2. Cumbria Resilience. (2005). CarlisleStorms and Associated Flooding, Multi-agency Debrief report. Government Officefor the Noth West.

3. Environment agency 2004. ( ). Living withthe risk the floods in boscastle and northcornwall 16 august 2004.

4. Githeko, lindsay, & Ulissess. (2000).Climate change and vectore borndiseases a regional analysis. Bulletin ofthe World Health Organization.

5. Gloucestershire County Council. (2007).Your Essential Flood guide.

6. Jonson, S. K. (2005, Spring ). The impactof the 2003 Heat Wave on the mortalityand hospital admissions in England.Health Statistics Quarterly.

7. McMichael, & Campbell-Lendrum.(2003). Climate change and human health,Risks and Responses. World HealthOrganization.

8. Met Office. (2008). European summerheatwave 2003 . Retrieved fromwww.metoffice.gov.uk :http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/education/secondary/students/european_heatwave/index.html

9. Office of Science and Technology. (2004).Foresight: Future Flooding. ForesightDirectorate.

10. Parker, D., & Horton, E. (2005).

Uncertainties in Central EnglandTemperature 1878-2003. Internationaljornal climatolgy .

11. Severn Trent Water. (2007).Gloucestershire 2007, The impact of theJuly floods on the water infastructure andcustomer service..

12. Stern Review. (2007). The Economics ofClimate Change, A Review by Sir NicholasStern. Cambridge University Press.

13. The Hadley Centre . (2005). ClimateChange and the green house effect. Abriefing from the Hadley Centre. Met OfficeUK.

14. The Pitt Riview. (2007). Learning Lesonsfrom the 2007 Floods; An indepedentReview by Sir Michael Pitt. Cabinet Office.

15. tom coulthard, l. f. (2007). The June 2007floods in Hull, Final report by theindependent review. University of Hull.

16. UNEP. (2003). Impacts of summer 2003Heat wave in europe. UNEP.

17. Walther, Post, & Menzel. (2002, March26th). Ecological responses to recentclimate change. Nature.

References

66

Investigación Sobre Enos enAmérica Latina: Reflexiones,

Aprendizajes Y Desafíos

La creación de foros y espacios deintercambio, vistos como herramientas ypuentes de entendimiento acerca de laidentidad y la realidad de América Latina y elCaribe, es parte de una larga trayectoriaentre actores e instituciones. Esta práctica seidentifica en múltiples ámbitos del quehacerhumano en la región, y el desarrollo científicono es una excepción; todo lo contrario, esuno de los terrenos más fértiles para latransmisión de experiencias, conocimiento yla implementación de estrategias dedesarrollo. La tradición en investigación,acuñada desde tiempos anteriores a laColonia, ha propiciado que Latinoamérica secoloque a la vanguardia en múltiples temasque hoy son trascendentales por suimportancia regional y global.

La indiscutible diversidad como que cuentala región es uno de los principalescatalizadores del desarrollo científicolatinoamericano. Lo dinámico y lo variado,conjugado con lo estático y particular,marcan el universo dentro del cual losinvestigadores deben abordar sus objetos ysujetos de interés. De ahí la importancia quehan cobrado en las últimas décadas los

estudios comparados, que permiten adiversos actores compartir y entenderconocimientos y realidades particulares,además de hacernos ver el potencial queexiste en los esfuerzos conjuntos deinvestigación.

La investigación vinculada a El Niño –Oscilación Sur (ENOS) es una clara muestrade ello. Dicho proceso se ha caracterizadopor ser particularmente didáctico, más alládel conocimiento general sobre el tema,sobre las formas innovadoras de generarnuevos mecanismos, técnicas y enfoques eninvestigación aplicada. Nos ha recordadoconstantemente nuestras limitaciones perotambién nuestras múltiples alternativas. Nosha empujando a imaginar y compartir y, algosumamente rescatable, nos dejó claro que lageneración del conocimiento no es unproceso lineal. Por el contrario, nos hizoborrar y devolvernos a empezar de nuevo,corregir, solicitar ayudas, debatir en nuevosforos y humanizar significativamente nuestrosesfuerzos y proyectos académicos.

Desarrollo y avances de lainvestigación en torno a ENOS

El proyecto ENSO en América Latina fue unreflejo de lo antedicho. Recogió parte de unarduo proceso de aprendizaje y cooperaciónque, para fortuna del desarrollo científico, seconsolida cada vez más en la región.Presentó mezcladas las experiencias yaproximaciones a un tema común desdedistintas disciplinas. Abrió espacio para eltrabajo de consolidados científicos lo mismoque para jóvenes investigadores querecientemente se incorporan a trabajar en latemática. Muestra también un balance desólido desarrollo teórico y conceptual coninvestigación aplicada, atendiendo a uno delos ejes de mayor interés dentro delproyecto: generar bienestar humano a travésde la diversidad de los aportes científicos.

Los avances en el estudio de ENOS sonsignificativos y nos han acercado más a lameta de comprender, de modo integral,cómo se comporta la oscilación y cómo lassociedades debemos percibirlo. Laslecciones aprendidas trascienden el ámbitocientífico y técnico; y empiezan a calar entre

Alonso Brenes

LA RED

67

los actores políticos, tomadores dedecisiones y la sociedad civil en general.

Ahora parece lejana la idea que privó poraños al hablar de El Niño: una manifestacióncasi mística, de misteriosa recurrencia y dealcances marcadamente específicos en elterritorio. En tal sentido, los aportes de esteproyecto regional contribuyen a entendercómo ENOS se manifiesta y es entendido anivel hemisférico, y cómo sus efectos sonasimilados –o no– por las comunidadesamericanas. Nos deja claro también que loscomponentes de cambio espacial y temporalson dos aspectos que condicionansignificativamente las manifestaciones y susefectos derivados, lo que se suma a undinamismo social y ambiental que esproverbial en la región.

ENOS en América Latina

La idea del cambio nos permite señalarelementos que se vienen manifestandodesde décadas atrás. Los mismos tienen unefecto claro, tanto en el modo en quepercibimos las amenazas como las formasen que ENOS puede estar variando dentrode una dinámica planetaria mayor. Dichoselementos pueden agruparse en torno a dosejes: uno que articula un mosaico regionalentre diversas formas en que el fenómeno sedesarrolla en países y regiones; y otro queagrupa procesos de cambio que atraviesaENOS y que han sido identificados a partirde los últimos eventos registrados.

Tanto al hablar de ENOS como deLatinoamérica es preciso una ubicación enescalas espaciales macro regionales,distintas a las de referencia cotidiana. Sinembargo, al mismo tiempo, la temática sefiltra a través de escalas y dinámicas máspuntuales, generando múltiples realidades e

involucrando a un amplio espectro social;matizando sus efectos inmediatos endiferentes territorios.

A nivel de los países que comparten el áreapodemos ver cómo la oscilación presentasimilitudes y diferencias en su manifestación.Es reconocida como una de las fuentes devariabilidad climática de corto plazo a escalaestacional e interanual en los trópicos y enbuena parte de las latitudes medias, lo quegenera alteraciones en los procesos deacoplamiento océano / atmósfera.

Transformaciones epistemológicasy desafíos institucionales

El ambiente de cambio que respecto aENOS se ha tratado de esbozar es,efectivamente, un rasgo que identifica otrosprocesos que se dan globalmente y que semanifiestan con claridad a nivellatinoamericano. En la gran escala espacialestán ocurriendo procesos detransformación (también interpretados comosignos de colapso) que reestructuraránmuchas de las dinámicas sobre las que sebasa nuestro mundo tal y como loconocemos. Más allá del tema ambiental,estamos presenciando transformaciones enel plano económico y la consolidación denuevos mercados; vivimos un periodo derevisión y reinvención de la figura del Estadoy sus instituciones; estamos ante una etapade reacomodo de los principales centros depoder global en el sentido más amplio de laexpresión. En suma, somos testigos de unaetapa de transición mundial muy particular,cuyos efectos nos presentan nuevos retos,para este caso, retos en el campo de lageneración de conocimiento.

Este contexto no es, pese a los aires denovedad que se le atribuya, una

manifestación súbita de cambiosestructurales. Por el contrario, es visto comola culminación o punto de inflexión de lainteracción entre prácticas, actores,instituciones y tendencias dentro de laevolución cultural de los últimos dos siglos.Para el caso concreto de la investigacióncientífica, gran parte de periodo transcurriómediado por dos procesos.

En uno se dio una separación, en la prácticaficticia, entre las ciencias exactas y lashumanidades. Esto lo retrató C. P. Snow consu idea de las “dos culturas”; posteriormentese acuñó el término de la “guerra de lasciencias” para describir el contexto posteriora esta ruptura. Consiste en un diálogomaniqueo y de sordos en el que lashumanidades y las ciencias naturales serestan importancia, se achacan defectos yreclaman calidades de garantes de la verdady la belleza. Este conflicto epistemológico hasignificado un notable obstáculo a la hora deestablecer puentes de comunicación entrelas disciplinas y temas comunes de interéspara diferentes actores. Los efectospuntuales, vistos tanto en la región como enotras partes del mundo, retrasan eldesarrollo de las investigaciones y vulneranla calidad de vida de cientos decomunidades que dependen del impacto ylos adelantos en investigación.

El segundo proceso tiene que ver con elcambio en torno a las figuras tradicionalesen donde se genera el conocimientocientífico. Esta tarea, históricamenteatribuida a las universidades, empieza acompartirse con otras figuras como institutosespecializados, compañías con sus propiosprogramas, organismos no gubernamentaleso entes estatales. Nuevamente, los impactospara la región son de consideración. Lapolítica de desarrollo de muchas

68

universidades se ha tenido que flexibilizar omodificar, y en ocasiones su capacidad defuncionamiento ha tendido a disminuir. Laparticipación de nuevos actores en elproceso de generación de saberes pone enrelieve el tema de la injerencia particular ypolítica de intereses concretos sobre lainvestigación, la divulgación, el impacto ytransferencia y las reglas y condiciones definanciamiento. Así, al final de este periodo,otra lección aprendida fue que la idea de“neutralidad valorativa” se tambalea alquedar en evidencia la relación directa entretemas morales, desarrollo científico y elámbito (e injerencia) de lo político; aquí denuevo el aislamiento y el mutismo entreactores y sectores debe evitarse a todacosta.

En el desarrollo del proyecto ENOS enAmérica Latina se pudo transmitir yexperimentar directamente el alcance deambos procesos, De igual manera, se logróasumir con modestia al menos tres de losretos que, al respecto, mantienen unavigencia innegable. Más allá de seguircosechando rencillas entre disciplinasclaustros académicos, se procuró construirdiálogo y sano debate entre todos los queestán vinculados a la temática de ENOS,cuya diversidad es tan grande comocompleja. Igualmente, las actividadesapuntaron a establecer prácticas deinteracción entre distintos organismos einstituciones de investigación regionales;esto es un esfuerzo necesario dentro delnuevo proceso de transformación estructuralque ya está en marcha. Finalmente, sereconoció la naturaleza diversa yconjuntamente activa de quienes realizaninvestigación: se reconoció en los aportes lacuestión tripartita del científico no sólo comotal, sino también como un ser moral y comoun ser político.

ENOS, lo mismo que otros fenómenos yprocesos que despierten la inquietudcientífica, tiene implicaciones sociales clarasque deben ser analizadas con la seriedad yrigurosidad del caso. Pero también precisanuna traducción de resultados en el ámbitointelectual, moral y político, lo que garanticeun sentido integral a un esfuerzo global quese sigue desarrollando en estos momentos.

69

Due to its fragile geophysical characteristics,Nepal is vulnerable to changes in climate.Within the relatively short distance of 200 km,the landscape rises from a few metres abovesea level to the highest altitudes in the world,the Himalayan mountain chain. The climatein Nepal is influenced by altitude withdifferent climatic conditions in differentaltitudinal zones. The formation of themountains and valleys has created manyfragile microclimates, which are susceptibleto even minor changes in temperature,precipitation and wind circulation. Containedin these microclimates are weak eco-systemsthat are unable to resist the changingclimatic conditions of recent years.

This study concentrates on identifying howclimate change affects peoples’ livelihoodsand tries to identify effective adaptationstrategies for communities affected by floods

and droughts. The paper highlights theimportance of integrated approaches tovulnerability reduction and resilience buildingas well as measures to cope with adverseimpacts of climate change. The study wasundertaken in theJugedi stream watershed inthe Chitwan District where Practical Actionhas implemented a three-year pilot projectwith vulnerable communities. The projectsought to strengthen the capacity ofcommunities to cope with floods anddroughts exacerbated by climate change.

The study utilised participatory vulnerabilityassessment tools (Actionaid, 2005) toanalyse prevailing hazards and their impactsupon affected communities. 187 familieswere consulted via individual and groupdiscussions. Secondary data from bothpublished and unpublished sources, relevantto the scope of the study, was referred

to,serve to provide additional information andto verify primary field data.

The study area is subtropical. Precipitationranges from 2,000 to 2,500mm annually, ofwhich 80% is received in the three monthsbetween mid-June to early September. Overthe past few decades, hotter summers andwarmer winters have been experienced. 98%of the people consulted reported that climaticconditions in the area were changing. Thechanges most commonly identified wereincreasing frequency and severity of droughtcoupled with changing patterns of rainfalland rising temperatures. These perceptionswere based on experience, an understandingof the nature of clouds and wind flows, andhistorical trends in rainfall records. Data fromthe meteorological station situated 20 kmsouth-east from the Jugedi streamsupportthese perceptions (Shrestha et al, 2007).

Improving Resilience: Coping with Global Climate

Change LocallyDinanath Bhandari

Practical Action Nepal, Post Box 15135, Kathmandu, Nepal

*Corresponding author e-mail: dinanath.bhandari@practicalaction.ogr.np

Introduction

70

Respondents perceived that the frequency ofrainstorms have decreased while their intensityhas increased. The pattern of rainfalldistribution is unusual both in timing andlocation. When rain falls, it is intense, of shortduration and interspersed with long dryperiods.

Findings

Impacts and Vulnerabilities

The study identified landslides, flash floods,unusual rainfall patterns, seasonal storms (drywinds, hail and thunder) and drought as themajor adversities, which have increased inseverity over the past few years. Prolongedwinter fog (cold wave) is increasinglycommon, though previously not experiencedin the area. Both day and nighttimetemperatures have increased, particularlyduring the summer. Hotter days shorten thetime farmers are able to work in the fields.Increasingly erratic and unpredictable rainfallprevents the timely sowing of seeds, affectsharvesting and generally reduces productivityand yield. Poor rural people are highlyvulnerable to the impacts of climate change.Being heavily reliant on natural resources(most are subsistence farmers), lacking assetsand access to resources and with very weakinstitutional support, traditional copingstrategies are being overwhelmed by the paceand scale of the changes in weather patterns.Over the last decade, major water-inducedhazards such as floods and landslides haveincreased in frequency, exacerbated by erraticrainfall patterns. Socio-economic activitiessuch as deforestation, shifting cultivation andover-grazing, which weaken ecosystemresilience have combined to increase themagnitude and frequency of these events.

Erratic rainfall patterns have multiple adverse

effects. Heavier downpours within a short timeprevent the adequate recharging ofwatersheds and available precipitation is lostthrough run-off and overland flow. This createslandslides and flash floods, erodes fertile soil,decreasing productivity, degrading andultimately destroying livelihood assets. Asavailable rainfall flows away instead ofrecharging ground water reserves, less wateris available later in the year in the form ofsprings and stream flows. Much stream flowwater percolates through debris deposited byfloods and flows underground, leading to lackof water for dry season irrigation. Thiscontributes to a seasonal shortage of irrigationwater during the non-monsoon season.Untimely rainfall coupled with long gapsbetween successive rainfall events (evenduring the wet season), combine to increasethe frequency and extent of droughts. Erraticrainfall prevents timely planting, care andharvesting of crops, and decreases foodproduction. Farmers traditionally maintain acalendar of cropping and harvesting based onthe rainfall and seasons. This calendar nolonger fits. The increased intensity of rainfall isitself hazardous for crops, for working in fields,for infrastructure and mobility.

Seasonal storms, often associated with erraticrainfall, affect communities in many ways. Drywindstorms, which often destroy roofs ofhouses and cattle sheds damage crops andinjure people. These storms used to occurduring the pre-monsoon period betweenMarch and June. Now their incidence isunpredictable. They increase the incidence offires that, until now, have only affected forests.Hailstorms have become a normal occurrencein recent years with increasing ferocity anddamage to crops, roofs, killing wild birds anddestroying their nests and eggs (box 1). As thenumber of birds decrease, insect pestsmultiply, destroying crops in the absence of

predators. Thunderstorms with lightning haveincreased in frequency. In the past, lightningwas rarely observed during July and Augustbut now it is more common. Until recently, littlephysical damage has occurred due tolightning strikes but thunder creates fearamong children, particularly when outside orcoming home from school.

Hukum Singh Gurung (58), a resident ofKhetbari village had managed hisvegetable farm with drip irrigationsystem to cope with the limiting waterresources available. In April 2007, therewas huge hailstorm in the village. Hisdrip irrigation pipe was broken at allalong with damages to his zinc plateroof. “I had never seen such big anddamaging hail stones in my life” heexclaimed with sadness at his face.Apart from pipe, which cost about $ 31,he lost his whole crops of vegetablethat would give him about $ 300 – hisfamily budget for more than six months!The story repeats to all farmers in thearea. “It’s of no use how favourableother factors are on other days; singleevent is enough to cause a great losswithin a short time”, says Janga Sarki(45). In the earlier week there was a drywindstorm, which uprooted hundreds oftrees in their community forest. Therewere only two rainfall events betweenOctober 2007 and February 2008; onein January and other in February. Bothbrought hailstones and damaged wintervegetables tremendously. “I had neverseen such big heap of hailstones in thisarea” says Sher Bahadur Tamang (50)of Bhotedhap village.

Box 1 Large Hailstones

71

Over the past few years, people havesuffered the effects of drought. Theimbalance between recharge and dischargeof aquifers results in a lack of water forirrigation. Farmers reported that despiteusing more fertilisers, taking extra care inreading and using improved seeds andvarieties, their yields of cereals are less thanin the past. The duration of winter fog hasincreased in the valleys, causing wilt in wintercrops such as potatoes and mustard oil. Thisis assumed to be an extension of the coldwave from the Southern Plains. All of theseclimatic effects impact upon production andfood security.

Existing adaptation practices

People have responded to the changingclimate and its impacts in different ways.Flood victims have tried to renovate theirland, shifted houses or constructed newones in other nearby sites. More than 70% offamilies were found to have intensified theirtraditional alternative occupations, such asliquor production, firewood collection andsale and goat rearing. Often these optionsare not sufficient, forcing people to invadenew land or expand shifting cultivation. Inrecent years, remittances from workers whohave left the rural areas have become asignificant source of income. Ultimately, thisoutward migration of wealthier familiesintensifies rural poverty. Analysis shows thatadopting new strategies is dependent onlevels of awareness, skills and capacity. Thesuccess of alternative livelihood options isheavily dependent on the availability ofresources and access to markets.Communities build strategies based on whatthey have and what they know. Many of theseadaptations are based on the exploitation ofnatural resources. Ecosystems are

weakened through deforestation anddegradation ultimately reduces communityresilience (UNISDR, 2007). Poor adaptationstrategies and socio-economic activities canexacerbate the impacts of climate change,bringing more adverse conditions.

Consequences of climate variability andchange are potentially more significant forthe poor in developing countries than forthose living in more prosperous nations. Poorpeople with subsistence livelihoods are mostat risk because they depend uponagricultureand forestry, which are both sensitive toclimate and local weather conditions togenerate income for food and livelihoodsecurity. Changes in meteorologicalconditions impact directly on productivitylevels, diminishing livelihood returns (USAID,2007). Poor socio-economic conditionstogether with a lack of awareness, skills andalternative options have led communities toadopt inappropriate landuse practices, whichin turn, have increased levels of vulnerability.

More than 90% of the population isdependent on subsistence agriculture. Thisreinforces the urgency and importance ofadapting to climate change. The lack ofoptions and flexibility in livelihood strategiesof the poor constrains their ability to makepositive livelihood choices and reduces theirability to withstand or adapt to shocks andstresses such as droughts, floods and otherhazards. Scientific analyses on a global levelsupport the findings that those with the leastresources have the least capacity to adaptand are consequently the most vulnerable(IPCC, 2007).

Agricultural land, potentially able to growvegetables, used to remain fallow duringwinter. People were found to be interested inadopting new crops, if skills and initial inputswere provided. The nearby national highway

provides easy access to markets. Informalself-help groups existing in the communitywere formalised and linked to networks ofservice providers. The community eagerlygrasped opportunities to intensify and useavailable land with short rotational cashcrops in addition to the traditional cerealcrops. This has improved their income.

Project inputs on adaptation

The Practical Action project utilised existingexperience and ideas drawn from literature todevise field approaches. It is difficult toseparate climate change impacts fromenvironmental consequences of humanactivities because they are inexorablyinterconnected. The project providedexperience on understanding the localimpact of climate change in the context ofexisting livelihood strategies and their impactupon local natural resources. A broadapproach to adaptation, which reducesvulnerability, identifies locally appropriate andaffordable risk reduction measures, anddevelops adaptive capacities through skilland technology enhancement are necessarywhere problems of ecosystem degradationand climate change interact. The projectadopted an integrated approach andimplemented a range of activities including:

• Awareness raising

• Management of water resources

• Short-rotation varieties and cash cropping

• Improved land management

• Forest conservation

• Livestock improvement

72

• Disaster preparedness

• Institution and network development andstrengthening

Many measures taken by families in responseto problems they faced were leading toundesirable consequences. They were infact, mal-adaptations. Raising awareness ofthe impacts of their activities and theimportance of making sustainable choiceswas stressed. Project staff shared informationon current scientific thinking on climatechange trends, future projections andpotential impacts with school children,students, teachers and farmers throughaudiovisual presentations, discussions andexposure visits. The project helped farmers torepair irrigation channels and adopt irrigationtechniques appropriate to the increasingwater deficit. Farmers were encouraged togrow vegetables in both winter and summer,providing more income from a small area.This helped them to recover from the lostproduction of maize and rice due to untimelyrainfall and storms. Drip and spring irrigationwere introduced as alternatives to traditionalflood irrigation for dry season crops, reducingwater requirement.

Farmers were given the option to choosespecies and the timing of crops planted,based on their ability and confidence. Theproject aimed to increase diversity andavailability of crop species, and improvetiming knowledge (regarding seasonality ofcertain crops) that simultaneously increasesresilience to adversity (for instance, flood ordrought events). During the first year, anagricultural graduate provided the necessarytechnical inputs and skills through weeklyfield orientations. During the second year,farmers led the process and acted as localresource personnel on production. Marketing

vegetables provided an employmentopportunity for youths, while releasingfarmers from this task to allow them to focuson cultivation.

Sloping agriculture land technologies (SALT)were introduced to control soil erosion on thecultivated hill slopes. Three forest user-groups were established and institutionalisedwith their own rules, regulations and norms.These have been registered with the DistrictForest Office as required by the NepaleseGovernment’s rules. Grazing has beenregulated and improved breeds of livestockand stall-feeding have been introducedthrough training, exposure visits and inputsupport. Providing seeds and seedlings haveencouraged tree planting and fodder grasscultivation. Both vegetative and gabion checkdams have been constructed along streambanks and micro-catchments to protectagricultural land and settlements from erosionand flooding.

Sustainability of these adaptation measureshas been ensured by the formation ofcommunity-based organisations (CBOs).These have been registered with the DistrictAdministration, each with a constitution asrequired under the current National Act. Everyhousehold is a member of the CBO. Thisprovides communities with a legal basis forrequesting external support and enablescommunities to coordinate with otherstakeholders, both within and outside theDistrict. Linkages have been established withthe Local and District Government, NGOsand other line agencies such as Agricultureand Forestry Departments. Currently, CBOsare members of a district level disasterpreparedness network, which enables themto share experiences and learn from oneanother. Based on project experiences, thecommunities have prepared a long-term

integrated watershed management plan,implementation of which is being supportedby theLocal Government.

Discussion

Environmental degradation is a hazard initself (UNISDR, 2007) and has significantlycontributed to increasing the occurrence oflandslides and floods. Climate change isseen to enhance the magnitude andfrequency of stresses and shocks. If localpractices are not environmentally friendly,both climate change and socio-economicactivities will act together to increase theimpact of hazards. If natural systems aremaintained or strengthened they providegreater resilience to adverse environmentalconsequences in addition to increasing therange and robustness of livelihood resources.The exploitation of natural resources is mostoften uneven, the exploiters benefiting at theexpense of the poorest. Those with the leastcoping capacity are most adversely affected.It is important to understand who is mostaffected by the impacts of climate changeand how and why they are affected.Participatory vulnerability analysis providesinsights into these issues. The project hasclearly established linkages betweenresource degradation, land use, increasedprecipitation and the resultant increase infrequency and intensity of disasters. Thiscreates a spiral with further negative impactsupon available water, soil productivity, humanwell-being and health.

The IPCC (2007) concludes that the impactsof climate change are unequivocal. The endresults are multi-dimensional, multi-facetedand interconnected. Generally, one impactleads to another. For example, if land isdamaged by flood, families are displaced

1. Actionaid, (2005) ParticipatoryVulnerability Analysis; a step-by-stepguide for field staff. ActionaidInternational.

2. IPCC, (2007) Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.Contribution of Working Group II to theFourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange, Cambridge University Press,Cambridge, UK.

3. UNISDR, (2007) Environment andVulnerability: Emerging Perspectives. UNISDR Environment and Disaster WorkingGroup. United Nations EnvironmentProgramme, (Lisa: help with propercitation)

4. USAID, (2007) Adapting to ClimateVariability and Change A GuidanceManual in Development Planning. U.S.Agency for International Development.Washington DC.

73

and respond by moving or cultivating a newparcel of land, putting pressure upon a newlocation. This weakens the ability of land towithstand effects of changes in climate,increasing its vulnerability to futuredisasters. Logical in-depth analysis isnecessary to understand the complexitiesand inter-relationships of the possibleimpacts of climate change on thelivelihoods of poor people.

This study demonstrates that great careneeds to be taken to devise appropriatecoping strategies that are not mal-adaptations to existing and future climatechange. The study has provided examplesof how resilience can be increased bydiversifying livelihood options andimproving ecosystem health. There is stilluncertainty as to how these strategies willoperate in the future in the face of changingenvironmental and socio-economicpressures. Mandatory policies to supportand promote adaptation will be needed. It issuggested that these experiences andgood practices can be replicated andscaled up in communities living with similarconstraints. Interventions need, however, tobe context specific. There is no “one sizefits all” solution. Most importantly, linkagesbetween impacts of climate change, theprevailing socio-economic conditions andtheir implications for natural resourcemanagement must be recognised. The ruralpoor depend on their natural resources.Unpicking the impact of climate changefrom the impacts of social processes suchas deforestation, faulty and unsustainableagricultural practices and inefficientlivelihood strategies remains a majorchallenge.

Conclusion

In depth analysis of climate induced hazardsand social processes help to identify resultantimpacts of climate change in a particularlocality and can provide insights into howclimate change impacts affect differentlivelihood assets. Many impacts of climatechange, especially precipitation, extendthroughout a watershed. Adaptation measuresadopted at different locations may notnecessarily be unique but context specific.They are dependent on the forms and extentof impacts, adaptive capacity and livelihoodoptions for people vulnerable to a particularimpact.

Better management of natural resourcesstrengthens ecosystem health and increasesresilience. This most frequently requireschanges in individual and social attitudes andpractices. Identification and adoption of newoptions for earning a living that are flexibleand resilient to changing climatic conditionsare central to community-based adaptationstrategies. Inputs to reduce vulnerability thusneed to simultaneously increase the capacityof individuals to cope with changingclimateand improve ecosystem functioning atthe local scale.

Acknowledgements:

The Author would like to express his sinceregratitude to the community in the study areawho provided information without hesitationand Pieter van den Ende of Practical Actionwho encouraged the Author to write thisarticle. Gratitude is also extended to Dr. E.Lisa, F. Shipper and Dr. Richard, J.T. Klein ofthe Stockholm Environment Institute.

References

74

Indigenous Knowledge andModern Science Provide

Environmentally Friendly ShelterSolutions in Flood Affected

Desert Regions of India

Location

The district of Barmer lays in the western mostpart of the state of Rajasthan, India. This districtis the western-most district of India. Locatedalong the border of India and Pakistan, thisdistrict falls completely under the Thar Desertregion. SEEDS worked in Sheo block ofBarmer district where 300 shelters wereconstructed for the worst of the flood-affectedfamilies, specially targeting those from sociallyexcluded groups who had no capacity torebuild their houses on their own.

Unique characteristics of the local community

The local community is characterised bysparsely and widelyscattered settlments.There are four to five circular structures in onecluster bound by a low boundary wall, whichforms a family’s abode and is called a Dhaniin the local language. Each structure is usedfor a different activity such as sleeping,storage, cooking and daily activities. A clusterof Dhanis constitutes a village. Thesecommunities are live in very harsh climatic

Mihir Joshi, Senior Programme Officer, Barmer Ashray Yojana / SEEDS

www.seedsindia.org

D-11, Panchsheel Enclave, New Delhi – 110017, India

*Corresponding author email: mihir@seedsindia.org

75

conditions and make judicious use of thesparse resources available within theirsurroundings for their day-to-dayrequirements, and also for construction ofhouses. The population density of theBarmer District is among the lowest in India.Water is a major problem in this area. Villagewomen walk long distances with headloadsof pots to fetch drinking water, sometimesmaking more than one trip per day. Life inthis region is full of hardships. Means oflivelihoods are severely limited.

Indigenous Knowledge for ShelterComfort and Sustainability

Communities living in rural Rajasthanhaveconstructed houses with local materialsand indigenous technology for manygenerations. For construction of houses, allmembers of the family play a major role andhave allocated responsibilities. While themen of the family collect soil of good qualityfrom nearby places, the womenfolk gathercow dung, which they mix with the mud toprepare their basic construction material. The

women of the family do the plasterwork forthe new house, as well as for regularmaintenance of the walls and floor. Tying andweaving dried stalks and use of by-productsof the local Jowar crop make the roof. Thehouse is oriented in such a way that the winddirection and sun path ensure goodventilation and thermal comfort, which is verycritical since summer temperatures in thisregion reach about 50o C. Normally the sizeof openings is very small as it reduces heatgain, and also gives less exposure to sandstorms, which are a common local threat.

The people generally go for houses that arecircular in plan and opt for lower heights. Thisis basically due to the location in the HighWind Velocity Zone due to which they faceheavy winds especially during the summers.The circular plan helps to streamline theairflow with least resistance.

As this area also falls under moderate thehigh seismic zone based on the EarthquakeVulnerability Map of India , the circular shapecan also give good lateral resisting strengthto house. During the 2001 earthquake inKutch, Gujarat, which is close to Barmer,significantly less damage was observed inhouses with a similar design .

Survival and Propagation ofIndigenous ConstructionKnowledge

The indigenous technology for constructingshelters is being widely used in the area, andthe community members are themselves themessengers for transferring this technologyto their next generation. As all the membersof the family are part of the constructionactivity, they have a sense of ownership ofthe shelter, and an understanding of the

The design of an emergency shelter

Souce: Adapted from Safer World Communications

76

materials and processes.

There are five main factors behind why thistechnology of shelter construction is stillsurviving in the remote desert areas and howinformation was disseminated among othercommunities in the larger region. These areillustrated in the accompanying figure and inthe points right:

Community Leaders; Setting anExample by using this Technology

One of the typical traditions followed in anyrural community in India is thatwhenrespected people are living in aparticular area, others like to aspire to andfollow their way of life. This is very commonand an important aspect of community. Invillages within Barmer,it wasgenerally foundthat respected people in the community livedin these kinds of Dhanis. Seeing this, othercommunity members were also encouragedto follow suit.

Community Involvement in Shelter Construction

All community and family members areinvolved in various activities of shelterconstruction. Involvement of family membersas well relatives eases the burden ofconstruction, and also strengthens communityspirit. This is also one of the reasons why thistechnology is surviving in this still rural andtradition centric area.

Extreme Climatic Conditions

Barmer witnesses summer temperature ashigh as 50o C, while during winters the nighttemperature is near the freezing point. In order

to survive in these extreme situations anappropriate house is required. Cementconcrete houses become ovens in the heat,and chillers in the cold. There is no electricityand fuel is very scarce and unaffordable forthermal control. Though some people havestarted opting for modern materials, they arenot feeling as comfortable in these modernhouses as they did in the traditional ones.

Local Availability of Materials at No Cost

Local availability of materials, which is free of

cost and of transportation is a major attractionfor a community already impoverished by theharsh climate and having very few andweakened livelihood options.

Good Design, Safety and Comfort

The traditional circular shape is appropriateforresisting wind pressure created by sandstorms, and wave pressure created byearthquakes. The walls are also of insulatingquality and are thick, giving good thermalcomfort insidehouses in both temperatureextremes. Roofing is also properly connected

77

with the walling system, giving higher structuralsafety to the shelter as a unit. Thecombination of safety and comfort hasresulted in a time tested shelter technologythat is respected locally for its immediateandlong-term benefits.

Desert Rain, a Sign of ClimateChange: the Shock

By midnight on 21 August 2006, Barmer hadreceived 577 mm of rainfall in three days, 300mm more than annual average rainfall of 277mm. About a hundred villages were affected inthe district. Some of the worst affected villageswere Kavas, Malua, Bhadkha and Shiv. Thewater level reached close to thirty feet abovethe ground level. It is officially reported that 103people died. About 95 percent of families inthese affected villages were renderedhomeless. Even where parts of their houseswere standing, these were madeuninhabitable.Since the structures were mostly made ofmud, they were badly damaged and mostlydestroyed by the flood. As the local peoplehad never experienced this kind of a situationbefore, they were shocked and were not ableto understand how to handle this disaster.Some local people thought that this was an actof displeased gods, while those linked to thescientific world pointed fingers at climatechange.

Shelter Response: Build Back Better,Faster and More Resilient

SEEDS and partners intervened inconstruction of shelter after the unusualfloods in the desert area. As the originalhouses had used mud as the basic materialfor construction of Dhanis, many families hadlost their houses as they were washed away

in the fast flowing floodwater or severelydamaged due to sustained submergence.After carefully studying the local naturalenvironment, availability of materials,prevalence of traditional practices, andavailability of skills, SEEDS decided toconstruct shelters with the same kind oftraditional technology but by enhancingdisaster resistance through introduction ofStabilised Compressed Interlocking EarthBlocks. The construction of three hundredsuch shelters was taken up with communityparticipation under the Barmer Ashray Yojana(Barmer Shelter Programme).

Main objectives of the reconstructionprogramme were:

• Assistance to the worst affected andsocio-economically weakest families forrebuilding their homes

• Promotion of sustainable and disasterresistant construction technology

• Community participation in all the phasesof reconstruction program

• Generation of livelihood for the floodaffected population

• Skill upgrading of local masons andartisans

• Involvement and engagement of allstakeholders, including local governmentsand civil society actors

Indigenous Knowledge and theSupport of Science

SEEDS visited the affected areasimmediately after the floods and carried out adamage assessment along with a study ofthe local natural and built environment. Theteam assessed and documented traditional

construction practices in the area. This wasvery environmentally friendly as materialshave low ecological and carbon footprints;houses were conducive to and thermallycomfortable for extreme weather conditionstraditionally prevalent in the area. Thecircular design protected structures fromstrong winds and earthquakes;constructionprocesses were simple and suited to thelocal skill levels.

Research was carried out on appropriatetechnologies for supporting the traditionalconstruction system, and it led to StabilisedCompressed Interlocking Earth Blocktechnology, wherein local mud was stabilisedwith five percent cement, and compressedinto blocks that had high structural strengthand water resistant capability.

In partnership with Christian Aid, and withsupport from ECHO, three hundred shelterswere built using this appropriate technology,which was a mix of indigenous knowledge,and limited scientific inputs to make it furtherresilient in the face of new threats. VillageDevelopment Committees (VDCs) wereformed in each village to take decisions andto guide and monitor the constructionprocess. The VDCs comprised men, women,local leaders;schoolteachers, NGOrepresentatives and project team personnel,and interacted closely with the localgovernment officials. The traditional circulardesigns were retained, and so were the`breathing’ thatch roofs. An efficient systemwas established to mass-produce the SCEBsvery quickly to provide housing to theaffected families in a short time span of sixmonths. The house-owner families mainlydid the construction with limited support fromthe project team. The knowledge and skillswere left with local construction workers sothat they can be replicated and scaled up in

78

the region. Upon completion, local familiespreferred these traditional structures far morethan the modern cement concrete technologybased houses being provided by othersources, which turned into ovens under thescorching desert sun.

Lessons Learnt

The project intervention, and documentationof this case study led to many lessons beinglearnt. These are related to constructiontechnologies, material sciences, as well associal systems and processes. Main lessonslearnt are summarised as follows:

1. Post disaster shelter programmes mustcapitalise on existing traditional wisdomof construction materials andtechnologies, since it has been testedover generations and is best suited to thelocal environment and culture.

2. Technology should be introduced wherenecessary, but in minimalistic ways, soas to add value to traditional systemsand make them more resilient in the faceof new threats such as those posed byclimate change

3. Materials used for construction shouldbe eco-friendly and local to the extentpossible. This keeps the cost low, andalso minimies the carbon footprint of theintervention.

4. Participation of the beneficiaries indecision-making regarding the siting,design and construction details is criticalto gain their involvement and ownershipof the process.

5. Participation of house-owner families inthe construction process is very usefulfor cutting costs, enhancing the sense of

ownership, and keeping the design andconstruction process flexible enough foreach family to customise small things tosuit its preferences and convenience.

6. Transfer of technology to the localconstruction workers is very useful forensuring the sustainability of theconstruction approach, its replicationand scaling up in the area.

7. Linkages with local stakeholdersincluding governments, academia andthe private sector is useful for the smoothcompletion of such projects, and also forcreating a local buy-in for the approach,which will help its sustainability in thelong-term.

8. Linkage with other sectors such as water,sanitation, livelihoods and educationhelps create a more comprehensivepackage around shelter, habitat andlifestyles, and provides value addedbenefits to the local community.

79

Global climate change is largely attributedtoglobal warming and the greater frequencyand intensity of extreme weather phenomena.Average temperatures of the planet havesteadily been increasing since the IndustrialRevolutionof the mid twentieth century. Thescientific community largely has no doubt thatthe expansion of the greenhouse effect iscaused by increases in the concentration ofgreenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.

The Fourth Report of the IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) shows thatglobal climate change results from humanactivities and it is believed that recentregional changes in temperature have hadimpacts in many physical and biologicalsystems.

Climatic changes tend to contribute towardsan increase in temperatures, ultimatelyleading toevapouration, whichwill result in theprobable reduction of water availability (waterdeficit), which in turn will impact adverselyupon agriculture, and, most likely,the qualityof life of the population of semi-arid areassuch as Bahia. Long term drought anddesertification, have together, causedchanges in the hydro regime. Thesechanges have led toagricultural loss,threatened biodiversity and have hadadverse social, economic and environmentalconsequences in the semi-arid area ofnortheast Brazil, already aparticularlyvulnerable region, socially, economically andenvironmentally.

Knowledge of the level of vulnerability ofregions will contribute in the identification ofthe most potentially affected areas in thecontext of climate change. This knowledgebase will contribute towards thedevelopmentand implementation of policies andmeasures for adaptation and mitigation ofclimate change impacts.

The Semi-arid of Bahia is a region known forits climatic and social environmentalfragilities. At the same time, this is aneconomically significant region in terms of itsagro-economic potential for Brazil.Thereforeresearch is needed to identify thepossible impacts of climate change in thisregion, particularly with respect to the level ofexposure to vulnerability.

Social and EnvironmentalVulnerabilities in the Face of

Climate Change for the Semi-aridArea of Bahia – Brazil

Andrea Souza Santos*

Biologist – Master in Sustainable Development

Introduction

80

The general purpose of this research was toidentify and evaluate the social andenvironmental vulnerabilities in the semi-ariddistricts of Bahia against the projectedchanges and impact of climate in theregion.Specific aims were:

1. To analyse the scenarios and the climaticprojections in the semi-arid regions ofBrazil;

2. To discuss possible impacts of climatechange on agriculture in Bahia - Brazil;

3. To identify years of extreme eventoccurrence (such as droughts) andevaluate the possible impacts in semi-arid of Bahia; and

4. To create an indicator for measuring thesocio vulnerability of municipalities in thesemi-arid region of Bahia.

The studybegan with a theoretical review onthe subject of climate change, vulnerabilities,impacts and adaptation to climate change.Later abibliographical review about theNortheast and the Semi-arid of Bahia wasundertaken with a view toidentifying relevantinformation on socio-economic andenvironmental indicators.

The employed methodology was based on aselection of cities, taking into considerationthe criteria established by the Author. Citieschosen were located in the semi-arid regionof Bahia, with aclimatic typology varying fromsub-humid to dry or semi-arid and, which hadrecordedclimatic data from 1961 to 1990.

At the second stage, research wasdeveloped to illustrate droughtand lack ofrain patterns in semi-arid regions over theyears sated above via a climatic socio-environmental and economic data collectionfor the six studied sites. The ClimateScenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) and the weatherforecasts of the National Institute for SpaceResearch – INPE were also evaluated.

Firstly, some climatic and socio-economicindicators had been selected to identify theexisting socio environmental vulnerabilities.According to the survey, it was observed thatthe studied cities present a high water deficit.

The systematisation of the data was carriedthrough and the following indicators wereselected to build the Socio EnvironmentalVulnerability Index (IVSA): Index of aridity(calculated from the Water Deficit), IDH-M,IDEB, and PIB Municipal Agricultural Sector,for all the six cities of the semi-arid of Bahia.The Socio Environmental Vulnerability Indexwas developed using the formula:

IVSA = IA x PIB Agro./ IDH-M x IDEB x 10

Where: IVSA = Socio EnvironmentalVulnerability Index

IA = Index of Aridity

PIB Agro. = PIB Municipal AgriculturalSector

IDH-M = Municipal Human DevelopmentIndex

IDEB = Development of the BasicEducation Index

As a result, it was possible to identify whichcities show higher socio-environmentalvulnerability against climaticchangesprojected for the semi-arid area ofBahia.

Development

With continued global warming, it isestimated that an increase in frequency andintensity of extreme events such as droughts,

floods, sea level rise and greater frequency ofheat waves is on the horizon. Risingtemperature promotes greaterevapotranspiration, thereby increasing theability of air to retain water vapour, causinggreater hydro deficits.

Increasedsocio-economic costs related toregional variations in climate suggest anincrease to vulnerability to climate change.According to IPCC (2007), some social andeconomic systems have been affected byrecent increases in droughts and floods, withincreased economic losses from extremeweather events.

The Fourth Assessment of Working Group I ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange (IPCC) provide a complete analysisof climate change observed and itsrelationship to recent changes observed inthe natural environment and humans.

In Brazil, climatic change andexistingvulnerabilities of semi arid areasmean anincrease in thefrequency of droughts andfloods. These consequences includedisastrous impacts on agriculture andbiodiversity, changes in the hydrologicalsystem, particularly coastal areas,especiallywith respect to sea levelrise, which is likelytoheavily affect large coastal metropolitanregions.

Knowing what, how and whyregions arevulnerablewillserve to identify thoseareasmost likely to be affected by climatechange. Houghton (2004) states the need forintensive research aimed at improvingconfidence in scientific predictions.

It is thus the responsibility of all stakeholderswithin Brazil to propose and implementsolutions that have a core aim of reducingCO2 emissions to ensure minimal socio-economic and environmental impacts, via

81

mitigative and adaptative measures.

All scenarios presented in the Special Reportof the Emissions Scenarios from the IPCC,project an increase in average globaltemperature and sea level. In the context ofscenarios of climate change for northeastBrazil, weather classifications made by Salatiet al. (2007) highlight that the water balancedata achieved average values inHadCM3,GFDL, CCCma, SCIRO and NIES models, forthe two analysed scenarios(A2 - Highemission and B2 - Low emission). Theseindicate that there will be a decrease inexcess water in the region of up to 100% forthe period 2011 to 2100.The area studied bythe IPCC goes beyond the northeast semi-arid region of this report. Consequently it isdifficult to predict, specifically, scenarios ofclimate change for Bahia.

Severe impacts to water resources areexpected in Bahia. A strong tendency foraridityof the semi-arid region of the northeastby the end of the twenty-first century may beobserved due to a higher hydro deficit in theregion, characterising vulnerability inagriculture. Regarding the population, thosewith fewer resources and less ability toadapt, are the most vulnerable. The studydeveloped by the Nucleus of StrategicSubjects of the Presidency of the Republic in2005 (NAE 2005, b) suggests that theBahiaregion is the most vulnerable to climatechange.

In fact, the northeastern region could, due tolack of precipitation become an arid, barrenarea, catastrophically affect subsistenceagricultureal regimes, the availability of waterand health, in turn, forcing urban migration tocities ill equipped to cater to large influxes ofpeople.

IPCC evaluations repeatedly indicate that

developing countries are among the mostvulnerable to climate change. Thisobservation is increasingly noticeable inBrazil especially when consideration is givento studies highlighting the likelihood ofadverse impacts on society resulting fromclimatic variability such as droughts and rainshortage.

Based on the Fourth Assessment Report ofthe IPCC - AR4, the semi-arid and arid areasof northeaster Brazilwill suffer significantdecrease in the availability of water due toclimate change. In general, there will be anegative impact on freshwater systems. Intropical regions, even slight increases intemperature will result in a fall income fromcrops.

Changes in the occurrence and severity ofextreme events affect food productionsystems and cause food insecurity in thepoorest countries, highlighting:

• Water shortage;

• Reduced potential for hydroelectricity;

• Potential migration of the population;

• Heightened adverse impacts onsubsistence agriculture.

The Northeastern region occupies 18% ofBrazilian territory, with a fragile fauna,irregular distribution of rainfall, coupled withthe possibility of large time intervalsrelated tothe intermittent character of many rivers. Inthe northeast there is a high-range of climaticvariability. Insemi-arid areas of the northeast, climate can vary from less than 500 mmper year of precipitation, to the most rainyclimate, (normally recorded around theeastern coast), with the annual accumulatedprecipitation exceeding 1500 mm (KOUSKY& CHU, 1978).

Oyama & Noble (2004), in a study on theclimatic consequences of large-scaledesertification in northeastern Brazil,identified that desertification is aconsequence of the reduction ofprecipitation, an increase ofevapotranspiration which consequentlyconverted part of Caatingainto semi-desert.

The Brazilian northeast is an example of avulnerable semi- arid region, characterisedby water shortage and the vulnerability ofnatural resources, which in turn areexacerbated by climatic variability andadversely affect social structures. The stateof Bahia, with its large open expanse of land,is divided into fifteen eonomic regions, whichwere established by the government toimprove administration and to encouragejoint solutions for these cities, based onsimilar cultural, social and economiccharacteristics.

Based on the methodology used, 6 citieshad been identified, all of them lying withinthe semi-arid region of Bahia, withclimatological typologies that vary from sub-humid to dry and semi-arid, according toregisters of climatological data from theNormal Climatologic (1961 to 1990).

The "Normal Climatologic" was obtained bycalculating the average of meteorologicalparameters, according to criteriarecommended by the World MeteorologicalOrganization (WMO). These averages are forstandardized periods of 30 (thirty) years,successively, from 1901 to 1930; from 1931to 1960 and from 1961 to 1990.

According to climatic classification ofThornthwaite (1955), the climate of cities inthis study, vary from sub humid to dry andsemi-arid. They generally follow the followingcriteria: Minimum temperature, average

82

temperature, maximum, Potential, RealEvapotranspiration Hydro Deficiency, HydroExcess, Dryness Index and Hydro Index (SEI,1997).

The Dryness Index was calculated fromNormal Climatologic data (average from 1961to 1990). To select the indicators, it wasconsidered that the higher the dryness ofcities, the higher the socio environmentalvulnerability. As these cities depend heavilyon agricultural activity for economicdevelopment, vulnerability in the face ofclimate changes were projected to inrease.Thus, the PIB Municipal Agricultural Sector,was chosen as an indicator in the evaluationof the economic dependence of a city in thecontext of agricultural production, specificallycattle raising. A period from 2002 to 2005was selected.

According to IBGE, cattle raising activityappears in the 2005 GDP research of cities asthe sector with better distribution of the PIB(GDP, in English) among Brazilian cities. Aspreviously mentioned, climate changeimpacts may adversely affectagriculturalactivities, due to reduction inprecipitation,increase of temperature, with consequentincreases in evapotranspiration.

The Human Development Index was originallycreated to measure the level of humandevelopment in countries from indicators ofeducation (literacy and school registrationtax), longevity (life expectancy at birth) andincome (GDP per capita). The index rangesfrom 0 (no human development) to 1 (totalhuman development).

The goal of the Human Development Index isto offer a counterpoint to another widely usedindicator, PIB or Gross Domestic Product(GDP) per capita, which considers only theeconomic dimension of development. For the

Figure 1 New Deliniation of Brazilian Semi-Arid Region According to the Ministry ofNational Integration Source: (MI, 2005)

83

HDI-M indicator were used data from 1991and 2001. As the HDI-M only considersquantitative indicators of education it wasdecided to include the IDEB as an indicatorof the quality of education offered in themunicipalities. The IDEB was calculated fromthe data from the years of 2005 and 2007.Due to the difficulty of data indicators for thesame years, it was made normalisation andan average of available data in the search foran approximation of the real situation of eachstudied municipality.

Table 1 presents indicators of vulnerability forthe six municipalities studied in the semi-aridregion of Bahia. A Socio Environmental ofVulnerability Index (IVSA) was built for eachmunicipality.

According to the result of the calculation ofthe Socio environmental Vulnerability Index, itcan be concluded that the cities of Barra andItaberaba are the most vulnerable ones inrelation to other municipalities studied,

occupying the first position, with an IVSAequal to 0.34.

The city of Jacobina appears as the secondmost vulnerable, with IVSA of 0.23, followedby the city of Irecê, occupying the thirdposition, with the IVSA of 0.11. The cities ofSenhor do Bonfim and Bom Jesus da Lapaappear in the fourth and fifth placerespectively with IVSA of 0.07 and 0.03.

Conclusion and Recommendations

The projections from The National Institutefor Space Research (INPE), (regarded as anapproximation of the characteristics of thefuture climate in Brazil), indicate that for theBrazilian northeast, reduction of rain as aconsequence of global warming is expected.Average temperatures could rise by 4ºc in apessimistic scenario, and from 2º to 3ºC inthe most optimistic scenario. All climatescenarios generally predict an increase in

temperature, with a consequent increase inevapouration.

Subsistence agriculture would be mostaffected by climatic change. Hightemperatures and low rainfall index, followedby drier air, can favour a high rate ofevapouration and scarcity of rainfall. Someclimatic models also project desertificationprocesses. For instance, the semi-arid areaof Sertão could, under the scenario inquestion, become a desert or a semi-desert.

Though droughts are frequent and naturalphenomena in areas of semi-aridnortheastern Brazil, droughts usually result inserious consequences for residentcommunities. Prolonged droughts anddesertification cause changes in the hydroregime, losses in agriculture, threatenbiodiversity and generate social, economicand environmental impacts.

Asurvey was undertaken in 6 municipalities of

Table 1 - indicators of vulnerability for the 6 cities studied

VULNERABILITY INDEXES

Municipalities Index of IDH-M IDEB PIB IVSA Aridity (IA) Agropec. (Socio Environmental

of Vulnerability Index )

Barra 0.57 0.536 0.853 0.100 0.12

Bom Jesus da Lapa 0.42 0.606 0.882 0.260 0.20

Irecê 0.43 0.631 1.000 0.040 0.03

Itaberaba 0.42 0.583 0.882 0.120 0.10

Jacobina 0.30 0.596 0.853 0.100 0.06

Senhor do Bonfim 0.29 0.626 0.794 0.033 0.02

84

the semi-arid region of Bahia, Barra, BomJesus da Lapa, Irecê, Itaberaba, Jacobinaand Senhor do Bonfim. They were chosenbecause all of them present climatetypologies varying from sub-humid to dryand/or semi-arid, and for having reliableclimate data sourced from the nationalNormal Climatologic database (for years1961 to 1990).

The percentage of poor people, according todata from the Institute of Applied EconomicResearch (IPEA), ranged from 52.05 to79.29% in 2000. The Index of Development ofBasic Education (IDEB) ranged from 2.6 to3.4 in 2005 and 2007, below the Brazilianaverage. Agricultural activity is the mostsignificant economic activity of the 6 cities.However, according to the Superintendenceof Economic and Social Studies (IES), therewas a decrease of 7% in agriculturalproduction from 1996 to 2006. In 2006,negative resultswere reported for practicallyall grain yields. Climatic change was blamedfor this drastic reduction.

It appears that the occurrence of years ofdrought led to decreased outputs inthecommercial agricultural sector of dry land,mainly, production of beans and maize. Withthe persistence of global warming, events ofdroughts could become more frequent. Assuch,pre-disaster planning and governmentprogrammes directed towards adaptationmeasures to deal with climate change andmitigate adverse effects of drought are ofparamount importance.According to theintensity and extent of the occurrence ofclimatic phenomena, adverse climatic eventscan destroy entire crop fields. For instance,severe droughts in 1998, led to substantiallosses in the production of beans and maizein the Bahia region.

In the search to assess municipalities

according to existing socio environmentalvulnerabilities, 4 indicators of vulnerabilitywere selected to construct the SocioEnvironmental Vulnerability Index (IVSA):Index of dryness, IDEB, HDI-M and GDPMunicipal Agricultural Sector.Due to difficultyof data collection for equal periods, allindicators of vulnerability were assessedusing an average from the available data, toachieve an approximation of the real situationin each municipality. As a result, from thecalculation of IVSA it was possible to identifyamong the 6 cities studied, those mostvulnerable to climate change impacts. Forexample, the city of Barra and Itaberabapresent grater socio-environmentalvulnerability in comparison to the others.

This work, along with the development of theSocio environmental Vulnerability Index, isexpected to contribute to future research, sothat governments can consider the issue ofvulnerability in the planning and managementof municipal, states, and federal regions.Greater knowedge of vulnerability will enablebetter adaptation measures to be developed,which are fundamental in areas where highsocio-economic and environmentalvulnerability exists as exemplified in the semi-arid region of Bahia.

85

1. HOUGHTON, J. T. Global Warming: TheComplete Briefing, Thrid Edition, 2004.

2. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ONCLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC). 2007a: ThePhysical Science Basis. Working Group IContributions to the Fourth AssessmentReport of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change. Summary forPolicymakers, Technical Summary andFrequently Asked Questions. 2007.

3. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ONCLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC). 2007b:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.Working Group II Contributions to theFourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. Summary for Policymakers andTechnical Summary. 2007.

4. INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ONCLIMATE CHANGE (IPCC). 2007c:Mitigation of Climate Change. WorkingGroup III Contributions to the FourthAssessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange. Summary for Policymakers andTechnical Summary. 2007.

5. KOUSKY, V. E.; CHU, P.S. Flutuations inannual rainfall for Northeast Brazil. J.Meteor. Soc. Japan, 1978. 56, 457- 465p.

6. MINISTÉRIO DA INTEGRAÇÃONACIONAL (MI). Nova Delimitação doSemi-Árido Brasileiro. Brasília, 2005.

7. NAE 2005a: Mudança de Clima, Vol. I:Negociações internacionais sobre amudança de clima; vulnerabilidade,

impactos e adaptação à mudança declima. Cadernos NAE, Núcleo deAssuntos Estratégicos da Presidência daRepública, NAE-SECOM 2005. Brasília,250 pp.

8. NAE 2005b: Mudança de Clima, Vol. II:Mercado de Carbono. CadernosNAE,Núcleo de Assuntos Estratégicosda Presidência da República, NAE-SECOM 2005. Brasília, 500 pp.

9. NOBRE, C. A.; OYAMA, M. D.; OLIVEIRA,G. S.; MARENGO, J. A.; SALATI, E.Impact of climate change scenarios for2100 on the biomes of South América. FirstInternational CLIVAR Conference,Baltimore, USA, 21-25 June, 2004.

10. SALATI, E., SALATI, E, CAMPANHOL, T.,VILLA NOVA, N., 2007: Tendências dasVariações Climáticas para o Brasil noSéculo XX e Balanços Hídricos paraCenários Climáticos para o SéculoXXI.Relatório 4, MINISTÉRIO DO MEIOAMBIENTE - MMA, SECRETARIA DEBIODIVERSIDADE E FLORESTAS – SBF,DIRETORIA DE CONSERVAÇÃO DABIODIVERSIDADE – DCBio MudançasClimáticas Globais e Efeitos sobre aBiodiversidade – Subprojeto:Caracterização do clima atual edefinição das alterações climáticas parao território brasileiro ao longo do SéculoXXI. Brasília, Fevereiro 2007.

11. SUPERINTENDÊNCIA DE ESTUDOSECONÔMICOS E SOCIAIS DA BAHIA(SEI). Parâmetros que definem aTipologia Climática para o climaSubúmido a Seco e para o clima Semi-

árido, no Semi-árido da Bahia.Superintendência de EstudosEconômicos e Sociais da Bahia – SEI,1997.

12. THORNTHWAITE, C.W.; HOLZMAN, B.Evaporation and transpiration. In: Climateand Man: Yearbook of Agriculture,Washington: U.S. Department ofAgriculture, 1941. 545-550.

References

86

Climate Change and Education:Issues Arising

Changes in climate have occurredthroughout the history. Climate change is notnew. What is alarming is the increased rateof change over a relatively short period oftime. Governments and organisations overthe last few years have increasingly insistedthat climate change is an issue that requiresurgent attention. Global temperatures are onthe rise as the natural rate of change iscompounded by human activity (UNFCCC,2007). Melting ice caps and retreatingglaciers have caused further eustatic efffectsand at the current rate of change, there is riskof permanent inundation across many lowlying areas, particularly, those defined assmall island developing states.Consequences of climate change coupledwith increased global temperatures are likelyto have a greater adverse impact on the

poorerest nations. Lack of awareness, poortechnology capability and transfer fromNorthern countries and vulnerability resultingfrom poverty and exposure to disasters arejust some of the contributory factors that putleast developed countries (LDCs) at risk anmake them more vulnerable. One seeminglyindirect but important factor that makespopulations in LDCs vulnerable is the lack ofeducation, particularly, in the context ofissues arising as a direct and/or indirectconsequenceof climate change. This paperhighlights the importance of equitable,accessible and relevant education withindeveloping countriesas it is argued thateducation is a fundamental and essentialcomponent in dealing with anthropogenicallyinfluenced climate change, from local toglobal scales.

Human Contributions to ClimateChange and Risks

Temperatures are likely to continue to riseexponentially,causing a rise in the number ofsevere weather events. Societies ill preparedor equipped to cope, adapt and/or mitigatedisaster will be most adversely affected byclimatic change at local, regional, nationaland global levels. One may argue that thelopsided nature of climate change, being theprincipal result ofrapid industrialisation byNorthern nations (in the pursuit of furtherdevelopment post World War II). Ability,capacity and capability to mitigate and adaptto climate change is skewed in favour ofNorthern nations. Plate 1 shows theexposure to flooding of countries around theworld. Most at risk are the low lying andpoorer countries.

Fuad H Mallick

Professor and Director

Post Graduate Programs in Disaster Management

BRAC University

Bangladesh

Introduction

87

Effects of Climate Change inDeveloping Countries

Because of the population and socioeconomic dynamics of developing countries,climate change can heighten vulnerability ina multitude of ways. Poverty and high-densitypopulations are major contributory factors. Inthe case of Bangladesh the fact that it is lowlying, deltaic and already susceptible tonatural disasters makes the situation worse.Cyclones and floods not only cause hugeloss of property and resources but act asdeterrents to development activities. Otherthan increased incidences and intensities ofnatural disasters the country faces risk ofpermanent inundation, salinity intrusion, lossof livelihoods, crop damage and failure,disease and out migration (GoB, UNDP.DFID, CDMP. EC, DoE, Report. 2008).

Consequences of climate change are aserious threat to development activities.Hotter summers, more rainfall in shortperiods, increased incidences of floods andcyclones are already noticeable inBangladesh.

Mitigation Approaches

At present, approaches to combating theeffects of climate change seem to have moreof a resistant or precautionary approach,particularly in the cases of incidences ofcyclones and floods. Structural interventionssuch as building cyclone shelters andstronger house construction are increasinglyadvocated. These are important since suchnatural phenomenon can happen at almostanytime. Approaches that will save lives inthe cases of cyclones and preserve life in thecase of flood seem appropriate. Alsoaddressed are issues of livelihood andhealth.

However, long-term approaches to mitigateeffects of a sustained climate change regimeare yet to be addressed. Issues related toclimate change and their projected effects onBangladesh require planning now, despitethe fact that adverse effects may not beimmediately apparent.

If, as forecasted by some, a fourth ofBangladesh will be inundated by 2050,strategies should be adapted now, to either,

not let that happen or if it were, to ensuresteps be taken to minimise damage. Salinityintrusions, signs of which are alreadycommonly witnessed, require strategies foralternate cropping patterns and new breedsof crops. This necessitates planning andresearch well in advance.

Plate 1 Risk from floods (source: World Resource Institute)

Plate 2 (above) Cyclone shelters andstrengthening of houses: Resistant andprecautionary (source: Post Graduate programs in Disaster Management, BRAC University)

88

Of serious concern is migration. Because ofphenomena related to climate change, it islikely that a considerable migration of peoplefrom affected areas to less affected areas islikely. In the case of developing countriessuch as Bangladesh,urban in-migration ismost likely to take place. As such, cities inthese situations that are already overcrowdedare likely to grow even bigger, faster. A long-term strategy to tackle this problem is also ofurgent importance.

Approaches to mitigate many effects ofclimate change need to be looked at withinthe overall perspective of development.Strategies that project well ahead shouldtherefore be formulated.

Long-term Approach: Education

Apart from the need to make the climatechange issue cross cut all aspects of futureplanning in developing countries, inclusion atthe policy level is also relevant andnecessary. Lack of education is one thereasons for poverty and underdevelopment.Education is not only about gainingknowledge it is also about raising awareness.Awareness about climate change, its causesand consequences are imperative to enablesocieties to develop skills and build capacityfor innovation in tackling climate changeimpacts.

In developing countries a significantproportion of the population is young. InBangladesh 33% of the population is underthe age of 14 (Bangladesh Bureau ofStatistics: 2007). In 20 years, this youngpopulation is likely to be heavily impacted bythe effects of climate change. Thispopulation will, in 20 years, be making orcontributing to important policy decisions. Itis therefore important that knowledge and

awareness of climate change issues areconveyed to younger genrations in order toequip them to make informed decisions. Forthis, a holistic view of climate change isrequired. Concern should extend beyond theconsequences of climate change to itscauses.

While there is the need for prioritisingeducation as a part of the developmentagenda, education on climate change issuesneeds to be highlighted within curriculumsofschools, colleges and universities. Beloware some suggestions as to how climatechange can be incorporated within theeducation system of Bangladesh.

Primary education can increase concern forthe environment and climate change interms of answering questions regarding“what climate change is” and “ how tosimply mitigate/adapt to climate changes”.

Secondary education is probably the mostimportant as it is the foundation for futureeducation and also because a lot ofstudents discontinue after this level. Here,apart from introducing the scientific aspectsof climate change emphasis should bemade on its socio-economic effects. Mostimportantly, students should have a clearinsight about the causes of climate change.It is important for the students to know thatthe causes of climate change werepredominantly initiated by rapidindustrialisation of Northern countries in thetwentieth century. Justice issues withrespect to development would thereforeevolve to take clear shape in futureeducation.

Tertiary education is not accessible to alarge portion of the population. The few thathave access to it should be made todevelop an enquiring attitude to climate

change. Since disciplines are separatedquite early on in the current system, eachone should incorporate an element ofclimate change education. Cross cuttingissues relating to development, increasedawareness, and knowledge disseminationneed to be prioritised. Also important hereis the backflow of information to lower levelsthrough future educators.

Research on climate change has so farbeen primarily concentrated in developingcountries, particularly scientific research. Indeveloping countries research can be morepeople centric and action oriented. It isimportant to create an environment wherescientific research of developing countriesis viewed in terms of practicalconsequences. There is an urgent need toexchange ideas and information amongstthe developing countries facing similarsituations.

Informal Education is effective where there is limited access to formal education.There are success stories of informaleducationgetting simple messages acrossto large portions of the population. Popularmeans of information dissemination need tomade use of. For example, media is auseful platformvia television, billboards andtheatre.

The role of religious teaching can be utilisedto great value. Whether educated or not,people attend religious gatherings.Religious teachers and clergymen caneffectively communicate climate changeissues. Of importance here is the role oftertiary education to make this possible, i.e.transferring the knowledge of formaleducation into a form easily understood bythe transmitters and transmitees of informaleducation.

89

Conclusions

In the case of climate change, educationmust not be equated to learning only, butalso geared towards awareness and capacityfor innovation. Local approaches tomitigation require knowledge-base capacityfor innovation. The transmission ofknowledge from all sources has to beinterfaced with the ability to generatesolutions, which in turn adds to theknowledge base. This knowledge base hasto be people centric and geared towardsevolving solutions that address: (i) theproblems not only the consequences; and (ii)also question the causes.

1. Fagan, Brian. The Long Hot Summer:How Climate Changed Civilization. BasicBooks, New York 2004

2. United Nations Framework Conventionon Climate Change (UNFCCC) Article 1

3. GoB, UNDP. DFID, CDMP. EC, DoE:Bangladesh: Reducing DevelopmentRisk in a Changing Climate, 2008

4. Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics:Statistical Yearbook 2007

References

90

Additional Earthquake Risk from Climate Change and

Preparation in Nepal

Nepal is a Himalayan country and its rangecovers 800kms with numerous glacial lakes.Glaciers are major attractions of the Himalayaand add to the energy water tower of Asiathat covers about an area of 33,000kms,square (Dyurgerov et al., 1997). This is thelargest glacial coverage outside the polar icecap regions. These Himalayan glaciers arereservoir of ice, and the source of fresh waterfor billions of people in the Indian sub-continent and China. Seven great rivers of theAsia; the Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra,Salween, Mekong, Yangtze and Huang Hoare feed up on these glaciers. The Himalayaof Nepal consists of 3252 glaciers with anarea 5322 Km2 and reserved about 481 Km3ice above 3500 mean sea level (Bajracharyaet al., 2002), discharge water regularly to theFirst Category Nepalese River i.e. riversoriginated from above the snow line. Theincreases of temperature melt more iceglaciers, which is linked to climate change:that could induce tectonic activity, accordingto scientists.

Nepal lies in the high seismic zone of theworld and many destructive earthquakes fillits history. The last major earthquake to strikethe country was the 1934 Bihar-NepalEarthquake that destroyed half of thebuildings killing about two percent ofKathmandu Valley population.

Despite the knowledge on historicalseismicity and the underlying earthquake risk,public awareness on earthquake hazard andrisk was minimal until a few years back. Anurgent need for defining a coherent andcomprehensive approach towardsearthquake mitigation and preparedness wasfelt by all quarters in Nepal, only after themassive destruction and a loss of 721 humanlives due to the earthquake in 1988. Sincethen, several innovative initiatives on ERMhave been implemented. The NationalSociety successfully implemented manyinitiatives for Earthquake Technology – Nepal(NSET) in cooperation with other institutions.

This paper tries to aware additional potential

risk of earthquake from climate change andpresents successful initiatives on earthquakerisk reduction and preparedness in Nepal.

Relation of Climate Change withEarthquake

Climate change is the most challengingenvironmental crisis of the 21st century. Anumber of geologists say glacial melting dueto climate change will unleash pent-uppressures in the Earth's crust, causingextreme geological events such asearthquakes, tsunamis and volcaniceruptions. As ice melts and waters runs off,tremendous amounts of weight are lifted offof Earth's crust. As the newly freed crustsettles back to its original, pre-glacier shape,it can cause seismic plates to slip andstimulate volcanic activity according toresearch into prehistoric earthquakes andvolcanic activity. It shouldn't come as asurprise that the loading and unloading of the

Binod Shrestha, Senior Geotechnical Engineer, National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET)

Introduction

91

Earth's crust by ice or water could triggerseismic and volcanic activity and evenlandslides. Dumping the weight of akilometre-thick ice sheet onto a continent orremoving a deep column of water from theocean floor will inevitably affect the stressesand strains on the underlying rock. While notevery volcanic eruption and earthquake in theyears to come will have a climate-changelink, as the century progresses we should notbe surprised by a hike in the number ofgeological disasters as a direct and indirectresult of dramatic changes to ourenvironment.

Sharon Begley of The Wall Street Journalrecently wrote about the subject in her"Science Journal" column, noting that newresearch suggests that when ice sheetsretreated some 10,000 years ago, volcanoesin the Mediterranean, Antarctica andCalifornia became more active. Begley spokewith Allen Glazner of the University of NorthCarolina, Chapel Hill, a geoscientist who hasstudied the phenomenon. Analysing an800,000-year record of volcanic activity ineastern California, Glazner found that "thepeaks of volcanic activity occurred when icewas retreating globally. With Earth's glaciersand ice gaps melting at increasing rates dueto climate change, it is conceivable that wecould see further impact from "isostaticrebound" in the Earth's crust. Begley citeswork by Patrick Wu, a professor ofgeophysics of the University of Calgary,which suggests that past disappearance ofice "may still be contributing to quakes ineastern Canada."(http://news.mongabay.com)

The Himalayan Glaciers have been decliningover at least the past 150 years (Wake, 2000)and increased in temperature i.e. 1 degreeCelsius over the past two decades (Hasnain,

2000) in the Himalayan region, isaccelerating the rate of glaciers meltingsignificantly. There are several evidences ofthe glaciers melting, for instance the KhumbuGlacier has receded over 5 km since the firstclimb of Mt. Everest in 1953 (WWF-N, 2005).The Himalaya region is experiencing theglobal warming and so is the impact.According to the Department of Hydrologyand Meteorology, Nepal (DHM, 1997) thetemperature in the Himalayas of Nepal isincreasing at the rate of 0.12 degree Celsiusannually, while it is 0.03 degree and 0.06degree Celsius for the mid-hills and the Terairegion, respectively. Hence, the Himalayanregion, which stored the freshwater in theform of glaciers and ice caps, will react thewarming more than other region. TheHimalaya, geologically Young and ActiveMountain with fragile rock and steeptopography will face more geologicalproblem. It is anticipated that glaciers andice caps will continue their widespreadretreat during the 21st century (IPCC, 2001).The rate of the Himalayan Glaciers recedingis accelerating very fast. IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1996 hadpredicted that up to a quarter of the presentmountain glacier mass could disappear by2050 due to global warming. Many tinyglacier lakes are forming and existing lakesare resizing as a result of climate alteration. Ifthis process continued, there may chance tomerge those newly formed small lakes andformation of larger one, which mayexacerbate the threats. About 20 glaciallakes are potentially dangerous, including 17that appear not to have experienced a priorGLOF (Mool et. al. 2001) and their spreadingmay have chance to burst in future. Bothincreasing rate of melting and decreasingrate of ice formation will reduce the amountof snow drastically, which will have feedbackeffect on global warming that may increase

the magnitude and frequency of earthquakeoccurrence in our region.

Essential infrastructure such as dams andreservoirs are rarely designed consideringpotential earthquakes or GLOFs. GLOFs arecommonly triggered following earthquakesand landslides as a secondary hazard. Thepre-planning and assessment of such crucialinfrastructure is crucial in the reduction ofprobable and uncertain risk.

Conversely, it is possible that climaticvariances occur after the devastativeearthquakes due to the change intopography such as changes in river courseflow. These changes result in ecosystem andenvironment changes, which govern manycomplex interchanges including levels ofprecipitation and evatranspiration rates,which eventually, can influence changes inclimate. Likewise, earthquakes severelydamage buildings and essentialinfrastructure resulting in the heavy loss oflife, livelihoods and homes. Loss of livelihoodand food security generally forces people torely on unsustainable livelihood practices.

Earthquake Risk Management in Nepal

The need and value of seismological studiesand monitoring started being realised inNepal after the 1934 the Bihar-NepalEarthquake. The Department of Mines andGeology has been monitoring the seismicityand interpreting the seismic characteristics ofthe country by its system of seismic stationsspread all over the country. Nepal NationalBuilding Code Development Project (BCDP)prepared a consolidated earthquake catalogthat covers the period from 1255 to 1992 in1994. This is the most widely used catalog;however, consolidation of pertinent events

92

since 1992 is yet to be done.

The National Society for EarthquakeTechnology-Nepal (NSET) used findings ofseismological research and studies, tounderstand earthquake risk and promoteearthquake awareness, mitigation, andpreparedness. Assessment of earthquakehazard and risks forms the basis of planningand implementation of these earthquake riskmanagement initiatives. Successes of theseinitiatives were largely due to a widerunderstanding of hazard and risk, bystakeholders: communities, private sectorand the municipalities. For example, theMunicipal Earthquake Risk Management(MERMP) that focuses on developing ActionPlans for municipalities and the SchoolEarthquake Safety Program (SESP) thatfocuses on earthquake preparedness inschool has benefited a great deal fromtraining courses that have been developedand implemented for masons, technicians,contractors, and engineers with joint efforts ofmany organisations including communityrepresentatives. The training programmesinclude modules on seismology and theresults of seismic interpretation. Similarly,vulnerability assessment of hospitals of Nepaland identification of mitigation andintervention options are based on theunderstanding of hazard and risk. SeveralCommunity Based Disaster Management(CBDM) programmes are being carried out inearthquake risk management. Likewise, theformal sectors are involved in implementingthe Program for Enhancement of EmergenceResponse (PEER), which includes enhancingthe capabilities and institutionalisation ofMedical First Response (MFR), CollapsedStructure Search and Rescue (CSSR) and theHospital Preparedness for Emergencies(HOPE). All these programs, implemented byNSET in partnership with local institutions

have significantly contributed to raiseearthquake awareness, enhance localcapacities and prepare the communities tocope with earthquake emergencies. Anunderstanding of seismicity was always theprerequisite.

Thus, NSET has been translating the complexseismological concepts into simple terms thatcould be understood by communities. At thesame time, we found that simple riskassessment tools such as the RiskAssessment Tools for Diagnosis of UrbanAreas against Seismic Disasters (RADIUS)was very useful for developing earthquakescenarios for municipalities. Such scenariosare very effective for planning and awarenessraising purposes.

Our experience tells us that effectiveearthquake mitigation can be achieved on asustained basis even in developing countries,and that dialogue and communication amongseismologists, engineers and disaster riskmanager enhances the process significantly.The National Society for earthquakeTechnology (NSET) is working to bridge theknowledge gap between academia andresearch stations, and the stakeholders forenhancing earthquake mitigation andpreparedness.

Improvements in Environmental Policy

A High Level Meeting (HLM) organised by thelocal enthusiasts- members of the WorldSeismic Safety Initiative (WSSI) in Kathmanduin 1994 was the first milestone towardsinfluencing the policy-makers on aspects ofearthquake risk management in Nepal.Subsequently, several policy improvementinitiatives have been formulated andimplemented in the country. These policies

were created to be conducive to theenvironment for implementing disaster riskreduction initiatives and achieving emergencyresponse capabilities in the country. Someefforts and achievements in these areas aredescribed below.

Creation of the Nepal Forum forEarthquake Safety (NFES):

NFES has been established as one of thetechnical committees of the Nepal Bureau ofStandards and Metrology, which is agovernment institution for defining andmaintaining Nepal Standards. NFES drawsmembership from a wide variety ofinstitutions: government, private consultants,contractors, builders, their associations aswell as the representatives from engineeringinstitutes, professional societies, materialproducers and traders, municipal authoritiesetc. It is a forum dedicated to the task ofimproving seismic performance of newconstruction by encouraging compliance ofNepal standards in terms of quality control ofmaterials and construction processesincluding observing all stipulations of theearthquake codes.

Mandatory implementation ofnational building code:

The Bureau of Standards and Metrology hasinitiated a process for defining the draftBuilding Code as Nepal Standards. Severalof the 22 documents that was prepared, asthe National Building Code, which is focusedon seismic safety, has been accepted asNepal Standards.

93

Incorporation of disaster mitigationpolicy in tenth 5-year national plan:

For the first time in Nepal, the document on thetenth 5-year National Development Plan (NDP)incorporates natural disaster management asone of the objectives of the government inorder to contribute towards “making the(infrastructure) Construction and developmentprojects of the country durable, sustainableand capable of providing the intendedservice”. Thus the development concept nowencourages prevention and mitigation asimportant efforts for disaster prevention.

Local Self Governance Act andKathmandu Metropolitan City Act:

The recently promulgated Local SelfGovernance Act 1999 (LSGA, 1999) gives afresh momentum to the process ofdecentralization and devolution of authority. Itempowers the local governments toundertake disaster management activities.Techno-legal aspects of mitigation actionsare now considered within the jurisdiction oflocal governments. A separate act, notably,Kathmandu Metropolitan City Act, is beingformulated in order to provide acomprehensive legal and policy frameworkfor an effective governance of the capital.

Important Achievements

Following are some of the importantachievements of NSET and many otherinstitutions in earthquake risk management inNepal:

• There has been a remarkable change interms of policies, especially in the area ofbuilding code development andimplementation

• The level of earthquake awareness in thepopulation is remarkably enhanced inareas where people and agencies wereactive in the past decade. It indicatestowards a very high potential of bringing inchange in other parts of the country also.

• The demand for earthquake-resistantconstruction is growing; house-owners areinfluencing the municipal authorities toinclude seismic safety in the buildingpermit process. The importance of suchchange in peoples’ attitude towardsearthquake safety becomes obvious whenone considers that it is taking place at atime when there has been no significantdevastating earthquake in Kathmandu inthe past several decades.

• More and more institutions areimplementing earthquake riskmanagement actions as their regularagenda

While these changes are positive, they arejust the start. There is still much to be done,and several challenges to be met remain.Now, we have to widen our earthquake riskconsideration in all heavy infrastructure inaddition to buildings comprehensively. Themotto should be to safeguard people fromearthquakes whatever the source ofearthquake.

1. MPPH/HMGN, 1994. Seismic HazardMapping and Risk Assessment forNepal, Project document, NationalBuilding Code Development Project,Ministry of Physical Planning andHousing, HMG/N, Kathmandu, Nepal.

2. NSET, 19991. Kathmandu Valley’sEarthquake Scenario. National Society forEarthquake Technology (NSET),Kathmandu, Nepal

3. NSET, 19992. The Kathmandu ValleyEarthquake Risk Management Plan.National Society for EarthquakeTechnology (NSET), Kathmandu, Nepal

4. Bajracharya, S. R., Mool, P. K., andJoshiI, S. P. 2002. Spatial databasedevelopment of glaciers glacial lakes inthe identification potentially dangerousglacial lakes of Nepal using remotesensing and geographic informationsystems. [Cited 4 November 2007].Available from:http://www.gisdevelopment.net/aars/acrs/2002/env/236.pdf

References

94

Landscape, Livelihoods and Risk: A Study of Community

Vulnerability to Landslide Events in Central Nepal

Landslides are one of the most destructivegeological processes, often resulting in majorloss of life and economic damage. Globaldata show an overall increase in the numberof landslides and associated fatalities overtime, a trend largely ascribed to human andsocial factors, rather than to changes inphysical processes (Alexander 2005). Similarpatterns of landslide occurrence have beenobserved in Nepal where Petley et al. (2007)examined trends in fatal landslide activitybetween 1978 and 2005. Their findings showa high level of variability in the occurrence oflandslides from year to year, but with anoverall upward trend. Further analysis ofthese data suggests there is cyclicity in theoccurrence of landslide fatalities in Nepal thatstrongly mirrors the cyclicity of the southwest

summer monsoon in South Asia. However,Petley et al., (2007) go on to note that thenumber of landslide fatalities have, in recentyears, increased dramatically over and abovethe effects of the monsoon cycle. This trendhas been variously attributed to the effects ofpopulation growth and urbanisation(Alexander 2005); land-use change resultingfrom intensive deforestation, unsafe irrigationpractices and quarrying (Gerrard andGardner, 2000); infrastructure developmentbeyond the capacity of the slopes (Sidle etal., 2006); and the effects of (anthropogenic)climate change, which may be changingrainfall patterns and intensities. In theNepalese context specifically, increasingvulnerabilities may also be attributed to thedecade-long civil war, which has exacerbated

poverty levels, and led to the migration ofpeople from the Maoist controlled rural areasinto government controlled populationcentres. However, there is little quantitativeevidence to support these postulated causesand, indeed, there is very little research intothe nature of vulnerability to landslides in theNepalese context.

Thus, this paper seeks to examine and,where necessary, challenge a series ofassumptions made in the context of landslidevulnerability in Nepal with a view todeveloping a better understanding of socialvulnerability and its underlying causes.Specifically, the research seeks to addressthe following questions:

K.J. Oven*, D.N. Petley, J.R. Rigg; C.E. Dunn and N.J. Rosser.

Department of Geography, Science Laboratories, South Road, Durham. DH1 3LE. UK.

*Corresponding author email: k.j.oven@dur.ac.uk

Introduction

95

1. Who is vulnerable to landslide hazards?

2. Why do people occupy landslide proneareas?

3. How are the physical risks perceived andunderstood?

4. How do people respond to landslidehazard and risk?

Conceptual and theoreticalframeworks

The vulnerability paradigm evolved out of thesocial sciences and was introduced as aresponse to the purely hazard-orientatedapproach that dominated disaster thinking inthe 1970s (Hewitt and Burton 1971; O'Keefeet al. 1976). Viewed as the ‘internal side ofrisk’, vulnerability is an intrinsic characteristicof a system (Birkmann and Wisner 2006).Cutter (2006) identified three distinct themesin vulnerability research:

1. Vulnerability as a pre-existing humancondition

The focus here is on the distribution oflandslide hazard, the settlement within thehazardous zone and the degree of lossassociated with a particular event orseries of events.

2. Vulnerability as a social response

This perspective highlights the socialconstruction of vulnerability and its rootcauses, here focusing upon what makesindividuals, households and communitiesvulnerable to landslides. Consideration isalso given to the coping capacity andresilience of the exposed population.

3. Vulnerability as hazard of place

Here, vulnerability is conceived as both a

physical risk from landslide activity as wellas a social response within a specificgeographic domain.

The aim of this study is to move beyond asimple exposure assessment in an attempt todevelop understanding of the causallinkages associated with landslidevulnerability in the Nepal Himalaya. As notedby Alexander (2005) much is now knownabout the physics of landslide hazards, butlandslide vulnerability remains a more elusiveconcept, dependent upon seeminglynebulous patterns of decision-making,response and behaviour. With this in mind,Cutter’s (2006) ‘hazards of place model’ ofvulnerability provides the conceptualframework for this study.

Study sites

The research has been conducted in theUpper Bhote Koshi Valley, SindhulpalchokDistrict, in the Central Development Regionof Nepal (Plate 1). The catchment is drainedby the Upper Sunkoshi River and its maintributary, the Bhote Koshi River. The UpperBhote Koshi Valley forms the route of theArniko Highway to Tibet and is characterisedby a complex tectonic sequence of steeplydipping quartzite, phyllite and schistformations. These are overlaid with highlyweathered colluvial and alluvial deposits.Large, often creeping, deep seatedtranslational and rotational slides arecommon, in addition to extensive gullyerosion both above and below the road.During the monsoon, river bank undercuttingis common, with notable glacial lake outburstflood (GLOF) deposits within the riverchannel. In addition, the main central thrust(MCT) zone, marking the boundary betweenthe Lesser and Higher Himalaya, traverses

the valley at the settlement of Tatopani. Thisbroad zone of disturbance and deformationis characterised by highly fractured material,with high susceptibility to rock falls andslides.

Anecdotal evidence suggests there has beenan increase in the number of landslides in theUpper Bhote Koshi Valley in recent decades.However, there has been only limiteddocumentation of these events and theirplace within the overall physiographic

Plate 1 The Upper Bhote Koshi Valley,Sindhupalchok District, Central Nepal

96

evolution of the area is poorly constrained(Adhikari and Koshimizu 2005). The studyfocuses on a 10 km stretch of highway wherea number of landslide prone settlements havebeen identified. These include the three casestudy settlements of Chaku, Larcha andKodari (Plate 1).

Chaku

Chaku is at risk from imminent, catastrophicslope failure from an active translational slide(Plate 2a). Five houses were destroyed herefollowing a landslide in 2001. The remainingfour brick houses at the foot of the slope anda single house on the crown remain occupieddespite evidence of continued movement.This is a complex slide, with successivefailures retrogressing up the slope, putting awider area and more houses at risk. Inaddition, two large colluvial fans are locatedat the southern end of the settlement. Hereremobilised rock fall debris destroyed paddyfields and adjacent farmland five years agoblocking the highway for approximately 10days.

Larcha

The settlement of Larcha is located at theconfluence of the Bhairab Kunda Stream andthe Bhote Koshi River, in the base of a steepsided gorge, characterised by steeplydipping phyllite rock walls (Plate 2b). Larchais at risk from landslide dam-break floodevents and debris flow hazards. On 22ndJuly1996 a channelised debris flow killed 54people and destroyed 16 houses, 150 m ofhighway, including a highway bridge andsurrounding agricultural land. A combinationof intense rainfall, runoff concentration andstream down-cutting triggered the slope

failure around 500 m upstream and upslopeof the settlement. The landslide debrisdammed the channel of the Bhairab KundaStream and was subsequently breached,inundating the village.

Kodari

The settlement of Kodari was destroyedapproximately 60 years ago by a landslideand has subsequently been rebuilt. The 500m slope on which the settlement sits failedcatastrophically again in 1981 following aflood and incision by the Bhote Koshi River,

destroying 15 houses, a post office andfarmland. The houses and farmland weresubsequently abandoned and the displacedpopulation resettled by the government ontoadjacent public land. Construction on theslope began approximately five years ago(Plate 2c). However, continuousundercutting by the Bhote Koshi sustains thegradual movement of the slope, with thenewly constructed houses already showingsigns of movement.

Plate 2 Study sites

97

Methodology

In the research presented here, a livelihoodsapproach is adopted which focuses on thesocial aspects of vulnerability. To investigatethe vulnerability of rural communities tolandslides it is necessary to gather data onlandslide occurrence and susceptibility,exposure, response capabilities andmitigation strategies. The field researchbegan with a geomorphological assessmentof landslides along the highway, and focusedwithin the selected case study villages.Baseline surveys were conducted in eachvillage to determine who occupies thelandslide prone areas and a ‘snowballsampling’ method adopted to selectinformation-rich cases for more in-depthanalysis. Household surveys wereconducted with the aim of gaining anappreciation of the underlying dynamics ofthe household. In order to address theissues of risk perception and response, aparticipatory-based approach was adoptedinvolving qualitative engagement withcommunities. This involved in-depth semi-structured interviews; oral histories; andparticipatory mapping sessions.

Research outcomes

Who is vulnerable to landslides?

In order to determine who occupies thelandslide prone areas and why, it isnecessary to take a historical approach andexplore land use change and settlementpatterns over time. Research suggests thatthe Tamangs were amongst the early settlersin Sindhupalchok District. The government’sforest clearing policy in the 1920sencouraged the migration of the Chhetrisand Newars from the Kathmandu Valley, who

claimed and then cleared the land andsettled in Sindhupalchok.

This historical account offers an insight intocurrent settlement patterns in the UpperBhote Koshi Valley. Tamang and Sherpa (hilltribe) groups interspersed with high casteChhetris and Newars (Table 1)predominantly occupy the settlements ofChaku, Larcha and Kodari. The “exposed”households in these locations are bothrelatively rich and relatively poor. However,and perhaps surprisingly, there appears tobe no strong correlation between povertylevel and caste/ethnic grouping. Thesefindings suggest that the “most-marginalised” groups i.e. the destitute, low

caste households do not always occupylandslide prone areas, as anecdotalevidence would suggest.

Why do people occupy landslideprone areas?

Traditionally, people living in mountainregions have recognised environmentalhazards and have made provision for them interms of settlement layout and design. Inrural Nepal, people have traditionallyinhabited the more stable ridges linescultivating the more productive land on theflat valley floor. However, the building of

Settlement

Caste/ethnic group Sub-group Chaku Larcha Kodari Total

Upper/high Brahmin 1 1

Chhetri 6 1 9

Newari 5 2 6 11

Low/

occupational Biswakarma 1 4 5

Hill tribes Gurung 1 1

Rai 1 1

Sherpa 13 7 1 21

Tamang 7 3 2 12

Lama 1 2 3

Terai caste Bahun-Chhetri 1 1

Total no. hh 36 14 14 65

Table 2 The caste and ethnic groupings of sample households in Chaku, Larcha and Kodari.

98

roads in the valley bottom is leading tooutmigration from the hill areas and theresettlement of populations by the road.Such migration has been observed within theUpper Bhote Koshi Valley following theconstruction of the Arniko Highway in the1960s.

The landslide problem in the high hills can bedescribed as chronic. Landslides frequentlyoccur but these are characteristically large,slow but constantly moving failures, whichprogressively damage property and farmland,usually without human loss. By comparison,landslide hazard in the valley bottom is acute.The events which occur are characterised byhigh velocities and long run-out distancesfrom a distal source, which are commonly notwitnessed, and hence are often catastrophic.In this context, migration can be viewed as anexacerbating force with regards to landslidehazards with an increasing population densityoccupying highly vulnerable locales (Hunter2005).

Households were seen to occupy landslideprone areas through lack of choice, wherebytheir assets tie them to a particular place; totake advantage of a roadside location, inwhich the economic/livelihood advantagesoutweigh the risks associated with the locallandslide activity; and in some cases,because the inhabitants are unaware of thepotential threat of mass movement. This willbe explored through the following casestudies:

Limited choice

Case Study: A relatively poor Tamanghousehold in Chaku

The family house is located above an activetranslational slide. The head of the

household was born in the village andinherited land. They own their house but theirfarmland was swept away by a landslideapproximately five years ago. The husbandand wife sharecrop another villager’s landand keep half of the crops grown. Their onlydirect source of cash income is from thehusband’s day wage labour in the nearbystone quarry. There is clear evidence ofslope movement with cracks appearing in thehouse and the surrounding terraced farmlandmoving down slope. However, while they areaware of the risk of landslide activity theycannot afford to move. The house is theironly asset and it ties them to their location.

This, to a large extent, is what we expected tofind: relatively poor marginalised groupsliving in highly vulnerable locations with nochoice but to occupy the site. However, asnoted by Wisner (2006) it is important to lookbeyond the simplified taxonomic approachwhereby all poor, ethnic minority householdsare classified as vulnerable. Instead, bytaking a more situational/case study basedapproach we uncovered a range of furtherprocesses, which cause households tooccupy landslide prone areas.

The advantages of a roadsidelocation outweigh the risksassociated with landslide activity

Case Study: A middle income Sherpahousehold in Larcha.

The household migrated to the roadside totake advantage of the business opportunities.They purchased the land in Larcha justbefore the 1996 debris flow disaster andconstructed their house approximately onemonth after the event. While the head of thehousehold is concerned that a debris flow

may reoccur, the land is now worth very littledue to the risk of debris flow activity. Thefamily could return to their hill village but thelivelihood and economic opportunities arebetter at the roadside.

These findings suggest that risks do not maponto each other. Instead, new opportunitiestied to roads cause traditional settlementpatterns and their logics to be re-organisedleading to increased risk in one sense (thatfrom landslides) but growing opportunitiesand reduced risk in other respects (forexample, through the access to services andthe opportunity to generate a steady incomefor a more secure livelihood).

Unaware of the risks associatedwith landslide activity

Case Study: A high-caste household in Kodari.

The household migrated from their remote hillvillage approximately two years ago in searchof employment opportunities. Their mainincome sources are from lorry driving andcarrying goods across the nearbyNepal/China border. The family rent a houseon the landslide prone slope in Kodari, whichfailed in the 1980s. Despite evidence ofmovement, including changes in the level ofthe road, cracks in buildings and incliningtrees, the household believe the land to bestable and much safer than alternative areas.

Knowledge of the physical environment ispassed on through generations and peopledraw on this knowledge and on pastexperience to make assessments (Dekens2007). The sample households in Kodarihave limited, and in most cases noknowledge of past landslide activity and areessentially exposed to a new and unfamiliarrisk environment.

99

Risk perception

Two overarching themes have emerged withregard to indigenous people’s perceptions ofrisks from landslides: a natural/scientific anda supra-natural understanding of landslidehazard and risk. These findings are similar tothose of Bjonness (1986) who undertookresearch into the perception and risk-avoiding strategies among the Sherpas ofKhumbu Himal, Nepal. Local people areaware that they live in a landslide proneenvironment and make clear links betweensteep slopes, heavy monsoon rainfall andresulting landslide activity. Links were alsomade between soil characteristics;deforestation; the quarrying of slate; riverundercutting and incision; and in somecases, road construction and massmovement. These findings are likely toreflect the strong social-environmentalinteraction inherent in mountain communities.

Supra-natural explanations based on Hinduand Buddhist mythology were also given. Inthis context, landslides were viewed as thework of the deities or gods who reside in themountains and trigger landslides whenangered by the sinful acts of the communityand their disrespect of the naturalenvironment. Examples include the dumpingof rubbish and the killing of a sacred cow.Popular Hindu beliefs link the gods with giantsnakes or nags, which live below the ground.When the gods are made angry, the giantsnakes move, triggering slope failure. Fewhouseholds have, what Pigg (1996) terms,‘blind faith’. Supra-natural understandingdoes not go unquestioned by the samplehouseholds but equally the ideas are nottotally dismissed. This reflects everyday lifein Nepal, which is traditionally interwovenwith religion. Supra-natural explanationswere seen to emerge when there was no

obvious physical trigger for a landslide orwhen the events are deemed beyond thecontrol of the community.

Landslide risk in the context of theeveryday risk environment

The sample households were seen to attachonly minimal importance to severe landsliderisk. Instead they were found to have morepressing everyday livelihood concerns, whichwere viewed as far more immediate threatsthan relatively infrequent landslide and debrisflow events. Hall (1999) describes thesepressing everyday concerns as ‘felt needs’.Frequently, cited examples include a good,reliable income; education for the children;and access to medical treatment.Researchers involved in the InternationalKarakorum Project (an interdisciplinary studyrelating to geological hazards in theKarakorum Mountains of Pakistan) in theearly 1980s, came to a similar conclusion:local communities seemed to attach minimalimportance to the sever threats they facedfrom their physical environment (Hall 1999).

Many of the case study communities in theUpper Bhote Koshi Valley were found to havea very astute view of risk. What at firstappeared to be “risky actions”, for example,constructing a house on government land atthe bottom of a steep, unstable slope proneto failure, were in fact well thought outactions with clear underlying reasonings. Ingeneral, the sample households adopted‘risk-averse strategies’but these wereundertaken in the context of the everydayrisks they face (Blaikie et al. 2002) rather thanin the context of geological hazards. Assummarised by Hall (1999) ‘in effect they (thecase study communities) accepted the riskfrom an infrequent hazard event in order to

reduce the risk to their everyday economicneeds’ (p.3).

However, not all the example householdswere ‘strategising’ and making considereddecisions to settle in landslide prone areas.Some households were seen to have limitedchoice. In this context, individuals andhouseholds were seen to ‘react’ rather than‘strategise’.

Responses

Both the psychometric and constructivistapproaches to the epistemology of risk haverecognised that people’s attitudes towardsrisk partly reflect their feelings of power, orlack thereof, in relation to the sources of risk(Jasanoff 1998). Accepting something asbeyond their control may therefore be viewedas a coping strategy. Both Bjonness (1986)and Pilgrim (1999) discuss this in the contextof landslide hazard and risk in the Himalayaand make a clear distinction between eventsabout which something can be done (i.e.decisions made and actions taken) andevents which are beyond the mitigatingcapabilities of the household or community,for example large or rapid landslides. Theresponses at individual and household levelwere therefore seen to fit Burton et al’s(1993) behaviour patterns:

• Do nothingRisk denial/rejection (“it will neverhappen”)Passive acceptance of risk (“it doesn’tmatter what I do”)

• Take action

• Action to reduce further losses (“I must beready”)

100

• Drastic changes in livelihoods or land useconsidered (“I will not let it happen again”)

Do nothing

For those who do nothing, this may reflect alack of awareness regarding the hazard forexample, the community living on thelandslide prone slope in Kodari. The newand recent migrants that live on this slope didnot experience the landslide 20 years ago.Although the slope continues to move today,to the residents it does not pose animmediate or potentially catastrophic threat.Alternatively, the household or communitymay be aware of the hazard but may rejectthe risk and do nothing. The settlement ofLarcha was destroyed by the 1996 debrisflow event and has since been rebuilt.

Many of the new migrants believe they aresafe because ‘the big event has alreadyhappened’ (male villager, Larcha, fieldwork2006). Households and communities mayalso passively accept the risks they face.Examples include some of the residents inChaku who view landslides as‘uncontrollable’, ‘acts of god’ and ask thequestion ‘what can we do?’ (male and femalevillagers, Chaku, fieldwork 2006).

For some people therefore, ‘do nothing’ isdriven by ignorance, for others it is indicativeof powerlessness; while for others it is apositive decision to ‘do nothing’ havingconsidered the alternatives. It is thereforeimportant to note that we cannot determinefrom a decision (i.e. to move or not to move)the context in which the decision has beenmade.

Take action to reduce loss

A limited number of households within thecase study communities were seen to takeaction to reduce loss and these were thehouseholds with the capacity to do so.Examples include a relatively rich Sherpahousehold in Chaku who live at the bottom ofthe landslide prone slope. A roadsidelocation is important for their trade businessbut they are aware of the risk of landslideactivity. In response they have constructedgabion walls at the front of the house andthey migrate to the relative safety of theirsecond house in Kathmandu during themonsoon months. However, no drasticchanges in livelihood or land use wereobserved to accommodate landslide risk.

Sims and Bauman (1972)reported thatindividuals who believe they control whathappens to them are more likely to undertakeprotective actions in response to hazardwarnings. By comparison, those who don’t,(those who adopt what is often described asa fatalistic attitude) believe it is not possibleto achieve protection. The case studycommunities in the Upper Bhote Koshi Valleylargely consider landslides to be beyond theircontrol: ‘we do not have the skills to stop thelandslides’ (male villagers, Chaku, fieldwork2006). They do, however, believe thegovernment could provide external controland do something to lessen the impact.Frequently cited examples of such mitigationinclude the construction of gabion walls andcheck dams.

Discussion

The research briefly summarised herehighlights the impact of road construction onlandslide vulnerability in Central Nepal.Undoubtedly, roads influence livelihood

trajectories and bring about social change.When roads are constructed and access isgiven, the process of outmigration androadside resettlement is inevitable. Thisreflects agency (voluntary but constrainedchoice), contingency and the broaderprocesses associated with the politicaleconomy (Blaikie et al., 2002). TheGovernment of Nepal states clearly in thecountry’s Tenth Development Plan (NationalPlanning Commission 2002) that temporaryand permanent settlements around majorhighways are illegal. However, while thislegislation has not been enforced along theArniko Highway, the government or the multi-and bilateral agencies funding roadconstruction projects to increase resilience ofexposed populations are doing little. Whileroad construction may be enhancing certainlivelihood elements, leaving peoplevulnerable to landslide hazards can be seento undermine development objectives. Withmany communities still isolated, the mainobjective of the Tenth Plan (National PlanningCommission 2002) is to further expand theroad network through the construction ofnational and regional highways and majorroads at local level. It is therefore a logicalstep for future road design to take intoaccount migration and roadside settlements.

Understanding what makes peoplevulnerable to landslides and how exposedcommunities and households perceive therisks they face are first steps towardseffective disaster risk reduction. To achievethis we must consider the role of humanagency and recognise alternative framings ofrisk. For the exposed communitiesthemselves these risks are largely concernedwith human security, everyday needs andwellbeing. However, from the context of an‘outside researcher’ what may appear to be‘risky actions’ are often, in fact, ‘risk-averse’

101

strategies. This does not mean that weshould negate the management of landslidesbut rather that we should look towardsdevising interventions which reduce landsliderisk whilst meeting the basic needs of theexposed populations.

For landslides, structural mitigation strategiesare highly developed and non-structuralmeasures are also emerging. However, thefocus of such advancements tends to bedeveloped countries. Possible riskreduction strategies for resource poor ruralareas include improvements in riskcommunication; hazard zoning the roadcorridor to encourage settlements to developin lower risk areas; the construction of feederroads in ‘safer’ areas which enablecommunities to benefit from access to theroad without being at risk from completeannihilation. However, these suggestionsraise a series of questions regarding thetargeting of already scarce resources and thegovernance of disaster risk reduction. Nepalhas, after all, recently emerged from adecade long civil conflict characterised bypolitical instability and poor governance.

Conclusion

Whilst landslide activity is strongly controlledby monsoon intensity, in recent years thenumber of fatalities has increaseddramatically over and above what might beexpected from the climatic conditions. Anumber of explanations have beenpostulated, including population growth, landuse change and the development oftransport infrastructure. However, with littleevidence to support these causes a bottom-up approach has been undertaken to betterunderstand social vulnerability in theNepalese context.

Within the case study area of the UpperBhote Koshi Valley, a clear transition hasbeen seen over time in the settlementpattern, rural livelihoods and thus theoccupation of landslide prone areas.Households were seen to occupy landslideprone sites through lack of choice as theirfixed assets tied them to a particular location;to take advantage of a roadside location; orthrough a lack of awareness of the riskassociated with slope failure. There was bothnatural and supra-natural reasoningattributed as causes of landslide activity, withresponses reflecting Burton et al’s (1993)behaviour patterns.

Building upon these findings, we now needto turn our attention towards policy andpractice with a view to increasing theresilience of communities to landslide activity.This is a particularly salient point given thefuture uncertainty associated with climatechange and the unknown impact this willhave on monsoon intensity. In addition, withthe continued investment into the expansionof the road network in Nepal, it is hoped thatthis research will help to target resources andimprove the identification of areas andindividuals at risk from the effects oflandslides. In order to do this successfullywe need to recognise alternative framings ofrisk and devise interventions, which not onlyreduce landslide risk but also meet the basicneeds of vulnerable populations. This willrequire the engagement of all stakeholdersas set out in Nepal’s National Strategy forDisaster Risk Management (UNDP Nepal2008). Only then will we begin to addressthe vulnerability of rural communities tolandslides in Central Nepal.

Acknowledgements

The Durham University Doctoral FellowshipScheme, the International Landslide Centreand the Royal Society Dudley StampMemorial Fund funded this research. Oursincere thanks is extended to colleagues andco-researchers in the UK and Nepalincluding John Howell, Hilary Byrne, LaxmiPrasad Subedi, Dr Vishnu Dangol, MrBhandary and Dr Megh Raj Dhital. Theresearch would not have been possiblewithout the hard work of Yubaraj Siwakoti,Bhawana Parajuli, Pragya Shrestha, KiranKharel, Pradeep Paudyal and RajendraShrestha who assisted Katie in the field.Finally, to the communities of Chaku, Larcha,Kodari, Marmin, Duguna and Listi – thankyou for welcoming us and participating in theresearch.

102

References1. Adhikari, D. P. and S. Koshimizu (2005).

Debris flow disaster at Larcha, UpperBhote Koshi Valley, Central Nepal. TheIsland Arc 14: 410-423.

2. Alexander, D. E. (2005). Vulnerability tolandslides. Landslide Hazard and Risk. T.Glade, M. Anderson and M. Crozier.Chichester, UK: Wiley:175-198.

3. Birkmann, J. and B. Wisner (2006).Measuring the un-measurable - thechallenge of vulnerability. Source (UNU-EHS) 5: 1-60.

4. Bjonness, I. M. (1986). Mountain hazardperception and risk-avoiding strategiesamong the Sherpas of Khumbu Himal,Nepal. Mountain Research andDevelopment 6(4): 277-292.

5. Blaikie, P., J. Cameron and D. Seddon(2002). Understanding 20 years ofchange in west-central Nepal: continuityand change in lives and ideas. WorldDevelopment 30(7): 1255-1270.

6. Burton, I., R. W. Kates and G. F. White(1993). The Environment as Hazard.London: The Guildford Press.

7. Cutter, S. L. (2006). Vulnerability toenvironmental hazards. Hazards,Vulnerability and Environmental Justice. S.L. Cutter. London: Earthscan:71-82.

8. Dekens, J. (2007). The Herders ofChitral: The Lost Messengers? LocalKnowledge on Disaster Preparedness inChitral District, Pakistan. Kathmandu:ICIMOD.

9. Gerrard, J. and R. A. M. Gardner (2000).Relationship between rainfall andlandsliding in the Middle Hills, Nepal.Norsk Geografisk Tidsskrift 54: 74-81.

10. Hall, N. (1999). "The perception of risk atlocal levels, and ways to measurecommunity vulnerability." Retrieved01/02/2007, from

11. http://www.benfieldhrc.org/disaster_studies/projects/imp_com_dis_mit_docs/Hall%20N.rtf.

12. Hewitt, K. and I. Burton (1971). Thehazardousness of place: a regionalecology of damaging events. Toronto:University of Toronto Press.

13. National Planning Commission (2002).The Tenth Plan. Road transportation.National Planning Commission of Nepal.Kathmandu: Government of Nepal:335-359.

14. O'Keefe, P., K. Westgate and B. Wisner(1976). Taking the naturalness out ofnatural disasters. Nature 260: 566-567.

15. Petley, D. N., G. J. Hearn, A. Hart, N. J.Rosser, S. A. Dunning, K. J. Oven andW. A. Mitchell (2007). Trends in landslideoccurrence in Nepal. Natural Hazards.

16. Pigg, S. L. (1996). The credible and thecredulous: the question of "villagers'beliefs" in Nepal. Cultural Anthropology11(2): 160-201.

17. Pilgrim, N. K. (1999). Landslides, riskand decision-making in Kinnaur District:bridging the gap between science and

public opinion. Disasters 23(1): 45-65.

18. Sidle, R. C., A. D. Ziegler, J. N. Negishi,A. R. Nik, R. Siew and F. Turkelboom(2006). Erosion processes in steepterrain - truths, myths and uncertaintiesrelated to forest management inSoutheast Asia. Forest Ecology andManagement 224(1-2): 199-225.

19. Sims, J. and D. Bauman (1972). Thetornado threat: coping styles of theNorth and the South. Science 176: 1386-1392.

20. UNDP Nepal (2008). National Strategyfor Disaster Risk Management in Nepal.Kathmandu: In association with theGovernment of Nepal, The EuropeanCommission of Humanitarian Aid andthe National Society for EarthquakeTechnology:96.

21. Wisner, B. (2006). Self-assessment ofcoping capacity: Participatory, proactiveand qualitative engagement ofcommunities in their own riskmanagement. Measuring Vulnerability toNatural Hazards - Towards DisasterResilient Societies. J. Birkmann. HongKong: United Nations UniversityPress:316-328.

103

Country Name Organisation United Kingdom Julie Mennell Northumbria University

Julie Edgar Northumbria University Phil O’Keefe Northumbria University Daivd Patley Durham University Andrew Collins Northumbria University Sam Jones Northumbria University Zaina Gadema Northumbria University Rob Bell Hounslow Council, London Kaite Ovan Durham UniversitySean McKee Tyne and Wear Fire and Rescue ServiceClare Shakya DfID NepalJohn Fry British Council,Nepal

USA Margaret Arnold ProVention Spain Laura Barba VillaescusaBangladesh Fuad Mallick BRAC University

Ahmad Kumar BRAC University MohammadAminurRahman BRAC University Animesh Kumar IWFM, BUETTahmina Rahman BRAC University

Costa Rica Alonso Brenes Torres LA REDTurkey Nihan Erdogan Istanbul Techinical University Japan Hideyuki Shiroshita DPRI, Kyoto University SriLanka Dayan Kom GMS

Poorna Yahampath American Redcross India PK Joshi TERI University

Mihir Joshi SEED Brazil Andrea Santos ERM BrazilNepal Nabin Kumar BK Minister, Local Development Governmnet of Nepal

P.K.Pathak Ministry of Home N.B. Thapa Ministry of Local Development Narayan Sharma Ministry of Local Development Gopal Rijal Ministry of Local Development Laxman Shrestha Ministry of Local Development Mahendra Kumar Khamyahang Dhankuta Municipality Nushraj Strestha Dhankuta Municipality Ganesh Prasad Timsina Itahari MinicipalityJiban Kumar Pathak Bhadrapur Municipality

Participants list

Bhim Prasad Poudel Ilam MunicipalityKaji Ram Karki TOR, DharanLaxmi P Niraula Department of Education Gajendra Nah Sharma Election CommissionS.R. Sharma VC, Kathmandu University P. Thapa Kathmandu University S.N.Khanal Kathmandu University K.Kafle Kathmandu University Yarn P Dhital Kathmandu University Govinda Bhandari Kathmandu University Rijan B Kyastha Kathmandu University Shalu Adhikari Kathmandu University R.B. Chetterai Kathmandu University S.R. Sharma Kathmandu University Neeti Singh BPKIHSP.K.Pokharel BPKIHSOm Gautma WHO, Country Office Narayan Gautam Tribhuvan UniversityBinod Dawadi Tribhuvan UniversityParveen K Chettri Tribhuvan UniversityJaganneth Aryal Tribhuvan UniversityBidur KC Tribhuvan UniversityMona Devkota Tribhuvan UniversityDilip Chapagan Tribhuvan UniversityBhupenda Das Khwopa CollegeTreabin Man Singh CIRAPhanindra Adhikary IRDIshwar Thapa Nepal Police Shyam S Jnavaly Action Aid International NepalDinanath Bhandari Practical ActionAshok Kumar Basnet Nepal MaxSanjib Sapkota NDRIJeevan Lama MAX Nepal Bishnu Khadaka Leaders Nepal Binod Shrestha NSET Nepal Deepak Acharya Journalist ; Nepal Disaster e- news.Radha Krishna Dhital Eastern Nepal Community Radio Journalist Ashok Basnet Nepal Television Neeraj Saud Journalist,Nepal Television Surendra Paudel Journalist , Nepal Samacharpatra Komal Raj Aryal Northumbria University

104

Komal Raj Aryal is a ResearchAssociate at the Disaster andDevelopment Centre, School ofApplied Sciences, NorthumbriaUniversity.

Zaina Gadema, who obtained firstclass honours degree from Schoolof Applied Sciences, is a PhDstudent at the Newcastle BusinessSchool, Northumbria University.

Disaster and Development Centre School of Applied SciencesNorthumbria University,6 North Street EastNewcastle upon Tyne, NE1 8ST

Email: K.aryal@northumbria.ac.uk

www.northumbria.ac.uk/ddc

Tel: +44 191 227 3583 Fax: +44 191 227 4715

Professor Julie Mennell Mrs. Margaret Arnold

Dr. Clare Shakya Dr. Andrew Collins

Professor David Patley (2nd left)Youth from Bangladesh, Costa Rica (LA RED)Brazil and Nepal

Designed and produced by Northumbria Graphics. 241331/11/08