„Demografia stosowana – o nowych metodach analiz i potrzebach badawczych”26-27.11.2012

Late motherhood in Poland – exploratory study

Results from sequence analysis

Anna Rybińska

Project FAMWELL

Outline

1. Late motherhood in Poland2. Sequence analysis description3. Data description4. Most common pattern to late motherhood5. Results of cluster analysis for „late mothers”6. Advantages of sequence analysis in social research

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

Years

Perc

enta

ge

% 2,06 2 2,07 2,13 2,23 2,11 2,1 2,06 1,89 1,95 1,87 1,9 1,99 2,01 2,15 2,32 2,5 2,81 3,08

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08

Motherhood postponement in Poland

Source: own calculations on Polish Birth Register

Percentage of late mothers among women who gave birth for the first time in a given year.

Sequence analysis

1. We represent one’s life course as a chain of states:

S – single, C – cohabiting, M – married

2. The chain illustrates one’s situation in subsequent years or months:

SSSSS CCCCC MMMMM

3. We group similar pathways in clusters in search of patterns.

Using optimal matching algorithm and Ward’s hierarchical agglomerative algorithm

Sequence analysis

We built sequences based on information about three life spheres:

Edu-Work-Single – Woman is in education, she works and she is single

EDUCATION HISTORY LABOUR MARKET ACTIVITY HISTORY OF UNIONS

IN EDUCATION (Edu) WORKING (Work) SINGLE (Single)

FINISHED EDUCATION (FEdu) NOT WORKING (No Work) COHABITING (Cohab)

MARRIED (Married)

Data description

Source:

FAMWELL SURVEY: “The spread of new demographic events: childlessness and late fertility”

Late mother: woman who gave birth to her first child after turning 35

Sample:

Women born between 1965 - 1974 Complete histories for 511 women Urban population only

Who is a „late mother”?

She is an educated, working woman who enters stable unions late.

Typical path of life of women who gave birth after turning 35

Source: own calculations

2015 25 30 35 40A ge

EduNo workSingle

FEduWorkSingle

FEduWork Married

Six paths to late motherhood

Source: own calculations

19,2%

7,6%

10,8%

17,6%

22,5%

22,3%

15 19 23 27 32 35Age

EduNo workSingle

EduNo workSingle

EduNo workSingle

EduNo workSingle

EduNo workSingle

EduNo workSingle

FEduNo workMarried

FEduNo WorkSingle

EduWorkSingle

FEduWork Married

FEduWork Single

FEduWorkSingle

Advantages of sequence analysis

We are able to see the coexistence of certain changes in one’s life course:

What changes took place? When did they happen?

In what circumstances did they happen?

We are able to explore: Variety of life paths

Without „cause and effect” conclusions With clear and convincing visualisation of one’s life course

Thank you for your attention!

Anna Rybińska