KIT-TAI HAU The Chinese University of Hong Kong

KIT-TAI HAU

The Chinese University of Hong Kong

只緣身在此山中：從數據談誤解（及PISA 2018結果）

W. Edwards Deming (1900-1993) said:

KIT-TAI HAU, CUHK 2

Without Data, You’re Just

another Person with an

Opinion – W. Edwards

Deming

• Huge Discrepancies in Public/General Perception

• Need More Clarification/Studies

• EST FIN, JPN,

KOR(SHA, SGP

除外)不做專題研

究(2013 TALIS)

• JPN, KOR, SHA,

EST 不設計自己

的評核• FIN, JPN, EST,

KOR (SHA, SGP

除外) 分數以外不

寫評語

• 基礎教學技巧仍有市場

KIT-TAI HAU, CUHK 3

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Int'nat EST FIN JPN KOR SHA SGPYour Teaching: Students work on projects that require at least one week to complete Frequently to In all or nearly alllessonsYour Teaching: I develop and administer my own assessment Frequently to In all or nearly all lessons

Your Teaching: I provide written feedback on student work in addition to a <mark> Frequently to In all or nearly alllessons

專題學習真的有幫助?

• 用電腦越多

2000-2012成績跌得越多

• 新技術不配合舊課程/學校制度

• 電腦技術只提高趣味，無助深層學習

• 回到基礎教學更有效

KIT-TAI HAU, CUHK 4

Australia

Hong Kong

Shanghai

Korea NorwayDenmark

Sweden

Netherland

Finland

Singapore

Japan

Taipei

New Zealand

Use of ICT at School

Ch

ange

in S

core

20

12

-2

00

0

TaipeiSHGG

在學校用電腦成績反降

高教育水平

低教育水平

母親教育水準 :學校間差異甚大（小三）

母親教育水準甚高的學校

母親教育水準較差的學校

KIT-TAI HAU, CUHK 20

很多

很少

學校平均成績

功課量：學校間差異少，永遠有人快，有人慢

Table of Contents

KIT-TAI HAU, CUHK 7

I. Academic A. Reading

B. Math

C. Science

II. EquityA. Gender

B. Socioeconomic

C. Migrant

III. Other MeasuresA. Life Satisfaction

B. Fear of Failure

C. Meaning in Life

D. Ed Aspiration

IV. Other MeasuresA. Meta-Cognition B. Cultural/Ed ResourceC. Perceived Sch ClimateD. Teacher support

I. Academic Performance (ranks and score, OECD mean ≈ 500, SD = 100)

KIT-TAI HAU, CUHK 8

Reading Performance Mathematical Performance Scientific PerformanceRank Countries/Economies Score Countries/Economies Score Countries/Economies Score

1 BSJZ-China 555 BSJZ-China 591 BSJZ-China 590

2 Singapore 549 Singapore 569 Singapore 551

3 Macao-China 525 Macao-China 558 Macao-China 544

4 Hong Kong-China 524 Hong Kong-China 551 Estonia 530

5 Estonia 523 Chinese Taipei 531 Japan 529

6 Canada 520 Japan 527 Finland 522

7 Finland 520 Korea 526 Korea 519

8 Ireland 518 Estonia 523 Canada 518

9 Korea 514 The Netherlands 519 Hong Kong-China 517

10 Poland 512 Poland 516 Chinese Taipei 516

11 Sweden 506 Switzerland 515 Poland 511

BSJZ BSJZ BSJZ

I. A. Academic Achievement: Reading -- HK and other high performing economies

KIT-TAI HAU, CUHK 9

2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

HK-CN 525 510 536 533 545 527 524

BSJZ-CN* 556 570 494 555

Macao-CN 498 492 487 509 509 525

Singapore 526 542 535 549

Estonia 501 501 516 519 523

Finland 546 543 547 536 524 526 520

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

Mea

n S

core

• HK: high (4th), peak at

2012, fluctuate, 2012

~ 2018

• Singapore: rising, well

took over HK

• Macao (44 below HK

2006), Estonia: rising,

catching, similar HK

• Finland (21pt ahead in

2000): dropping; =

HK now

BSJZ

BSJZ

• HK: high (4th),

fluctuates narrow

range, 2015 ~ 2018

• Singapore: rising, well

passed HK

• Macao, Estonia: rising;

Macao passed / ≈ HK

• Finland: dropped; 24

below in 2000; now

much lower than (44

below) HK

I. B. Academic Achievement: Mathematics -- HK and other high performing economies


2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

HK-CN 560 550 547 555 561 548 551

BSJZ-CN* 600 613 531 591

Macao-CN 527 525 525 538 544 558

Singapore 562 573 564 569

Estonia 515 512 521 520 523

Finland 536 544 548 541 519 511 507

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

Mea

n S

core

BSJZ

BSJZ

I. C. Academic Achievement: Science -- HK and other high performing economies


2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

HK-CN 541 539 542 549 555 523 517

BSJZ-CN* 575 580 518 590

Macao-CN 525 511 511 521 529 544

Singapore 542 551 556 551

Estonia 531 528 541 534 530

Finland 538 548 563 554 545 531 522

480

500

520

540

560

580

600

620

Mea

n S

core

• HK: high (9th), max at

2012, dropped

substantially recently,

too few science

students

• Singapore: rising,

passed HK (34 higher)

• Macao (27 higher),

Estonia (13 higher):

rising, passed HK

• Finland: peaked 2006,

dropping, = HK

BSJZ

BSJZ

I. C. Academic Achievement: Science –Reasons for the Drop


2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Physics 43% 42% 42% 41% 22% 21% 20% 20% 20%

Chem 42% 41% 42% 42% 25% 23% 24% 25% 25%

Biology 43% 42% 42% 42% 24% 24% 25% 26% 26%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%

% of Candidates in Phy, Chem, Bio

• Too few students

taking science in

334 curriculum


100 80 60 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100

B-S-J-Z (China)Macao (China)

EstoniaSingapore

IrelandHong Kong (China)

FinlandCanadaPolandKorea

DenmarkJapan

United KingdomChinese Taipei

SloveniaSweden

New ZealandUnited States

NorwayAustraliaPortugal

GermanyCzech Republic

FranceBelgium

CroatiaRussian Federation

LatviaOECD Average

SpainItaly

BelarusAustria

SwitzerlandNetherlands

LithuaniaHungary

TurkeyIceland

LuxembourgGreece

IsraelSlovak Republic

ChileMaltaSerbia

UruguayCosta Rica

United Arab EmiratesMontenegro

MexicoMalaysiaBulgaria

ColombiaBrazilQatar

Brunei DarussalamAlbania

Bosnia and HerzegovinaPeru

ThailandBaku (Azerbaijan)

KazakhstanPanamaGeorgia

IndonesiaMoroccoKosovo

Dominican RepublicPhilippines

%

Students at Level

1a or below

(in Reading)

Students at

Level 2 or

above

Level 6Level 5Level 4Level 3Level 2Level 1aLevel 1b

Below Level 1cLevel 1c

a. HK-CN vs. SGP/BSJZ

(HK 12%-56% weaker)

b. HK-CN 1.1% (BSJZ

24.8%, SGP 14.1%;

MAC 6.9%) at L5/6

more than OECD ave.

L2 &

Lower

L4 &

higher

BSJZ-CN read -11.0% +10.6%

SGP read -5.0% +11.0%

BSJZ-CN math -13.4% +18.0%

SGP math -4.5% +7.5%

BSJZ-CN Sci -22.9% +33.2%

SGP Science -9.1% +17.5%

BSJZ

Ref: OECD Vol I – Page 90 Fig I.5.1

II. A. Gender Equity in Reading (difference = girls – boys marks)


2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

OECD Ave 32 35 38 39 38 27 30

HK-CN 16 32 31 33 25 28 35

BSJZ-CN* 40 24 16 13

Macao-CN 13 26 34 36 32 22

Singapore 31 32 20 23

Estonia 46 44 44 28 31

Finland 51 44 51 55 62 47 52

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Gir

ls -

bo

ys

Reading

• HK: F > M by 35

• > Macao/Singapore (20)

• >> BSJZ-CN (10)

• Finland F>M by 50-60

BSJZ

BSJZ

II. B. Socioeconomic Equity in Reading (r of SES and Achievement)


2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

OECD Ave 0.39 0.35 0.37 0.36 0.34 0.34

HK-CN 0.23 0.25 0.21 0.23 0.21 0.23

BSJZ-CN* 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.35

Macao-CN 0.10 0.14 0.13 0.12 0.16 0.13

Singapore 0.39 0.39 0.41 0.36

Estonia 0.28 0.28 0.26 0.27 0.25

Finland 0.31 0.28 0.28 0.27 0.31 0.30

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.45

0.50

Co

rrel

atio

n r

• Correlation (r) between

Socioeconomic status (SES)

and reading (=equity) very

stable across years

• r = 0 perfect equity

• Macao best (.10-.16)

• HK second (.21-.25)

• Estonia (.25-.28)

• Finland (.27-.31)

• Singapore (.36-.41)

• BSJZ (.35-.45)

• OECD (.34 - .39)

BSJZ

BSJZ


Philippines

Panama

Peru

ArgentinaBrunei Darussalam

Malaysia

Moldova Costa RicaUruguay

Romania

Slovak Republic

Luxembourg IsraelBelarus

HungarySwitzerland

Czech Republic

France

BelgiumGermany

Lebanon

Republic of North Macedonia

Thailand

Saudi ArabiaColombia

Brazil

BulgariaMexico

United Arab Emirates

ChileGreece

Turkey

Ukraine

LithuaniaAustria

Netherlands

Portugal

Slovenia

Chinese Taipei

United States

New Zealand

Sweden

Poland

Ireland

Singapore

B-S-J-Z (China)

Dominican Republic

KosovoMorocco

IndonesiaGeorgia

Kazakhstan

Baku (Azerbaijan)Bosnia and Herzegovina

Albania

Qatar

Jordan

Montenegro

SerbiaMalta

IcelandItalySpain

Russian Federation

Latvia

Croatia

Norway

Denmark

AustraliaJapan

United Kingdom

KoreaFinland

Canada

EstoniaHong Kong (China)

Macao (China)

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

0510152025

Rea

din

g p

erfo

rma

nce

(in

sco

re p

oin

ts)

Percentage of variation in performance explained by socio-economic status

Strength of the relationship between performance and socio-economic status is below the average

Strength of the relationship between performance and socio-economic status is not statistically significantly different from the average

Strength of the relationship between performance and socio-economic status is above the average

OECD average: 487 points

OE

CD

aver

age:

12

%

Greater equity

BSJZ

Above-average in reading performance and equity in education

Above-average in reading performance

Below-average in equity in education

Below-average in reading performance

Above-average in equity in education

Below-average in

reading performance and equity in education

HK: high score,

high equity

Ref: OECD Vol II – Page 60 Fig II.2.5

II. B. SES Equity: % of Resilient Students in each economyHong Kong top in many resilient students


0

5

10

15

20

Mac

ao (

Chin

a)K

oso

vo

Bak

u (

Aze

rbai

jan)

Ho

ng K

ong

(C

hin

a)K

azak

hst

anE

ston

iaC

roat

iaT

urk

eyM

onte

neg

roU

nit

ed K

ingdo

mC

anad

aS

pai

nIn

dones

iaK

ore

aM

alta

Ser

bia

Moro

cco

Au

stra

lia

Rep

ub

lic

of

Nort

h…

Bosn

ia a

nd

…Ir

elan

dIc

elan

dR

uss

ian

Fed

erat

ion

Fin

land

Net

her

lands

Th

aila

nd

Jord

anIt

aly

No

rway

Alb

ania

Geo

rgia

Do

min

ican

Rep

ubli

cD

enm

ark

Lat

via

Gre

ece

Chin

ese

Tai

pei

Uk

rain

eJa

pan

B-S

-J-Z

(C

hin

a)S

loven

iaN

ew Z

eala

nd

Sw

eden

OE

CD

Aver

age

Lit

hu

ania

Chil

eP

ola

nd

Sau

di

Ara

bia

Mex

ico

Ger

man

yU

nit

ed S

tate

sP

ort

ugal

Cost

a R

ica

Colo

mbia

Au

stri

aM

alay

sia

Sin

gap

ore

Fra

nce

Bra

zil

Qat

arU

rug

uay

Bru

nei

Dar

uss

alam

Sw

itze

rlan

dP

anam

aS

lovak

Rep

ubli

cL

eban

on

Bel

giu

mB

elar

us

Cze

ch R

epubli

cR

om

ania

Arg

enti

na

Mold

ov

aIs

rael

Hu

ngar

yP

hil

ippin

esL

uxem

bourg

Un

ited

Ara

b…

Bulg

aria

Per

u

%

Resilience= bottom ¼ in SES in own country/econ

but top ¼ in Achievement in own country/econ

BSJZ


II. C. Migrant Equity


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Qat

ar

Unit

ed A

rab…

Mac

ao (

Chin

a)

Luxem

bourg

Can

ada

Sin

gap

ore

New

Zea

land

Aust

rali

a

Hong K

ong…

Sw

itze

rlan

d

Irel

and

Sw

eden

Unit

ed…

Bel

giu

m

Aust

ria

Spai

n

Mal

ta

Ger

man

y

Norw

ay

Unit

ed S

tate

s

Sau

di

Ara

bia

AV

G

Slo

ven

ia

Bru

nei

…

Jord

an

Fra

nce

Ital

y

Kaz

akhst

an

Isra

el

Leb

anon

Pan

ama

Fin

lan

d

Cost

a R

ica

Gre

ece

Icel

and

%

Hong Kong has a lot

of migrants

(i) % 1st generation

students in

population

(ii) many not speak the

language of

instruction at home

% 1st generation students


-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Un

ited

Ara

b E

mir

ate

sQ

ata

rS

au

di

Ara

bia

Ma

cao

(C

hin

a)

Bru

nei

Da

russ

ala

mU

nit

ed S

tate

sJ

ord

an

Hon

g K

on

g (

Ch

ina

)A

ust

rali

aIs

rael

Ser

bia

Ca

na

da

Cro

ati

aK

azak

hst

an

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Mo

nte

negro

Ru

ssia

n F

eder

ati

on

New

Zea

lan

dS

ing

ap

ore

Irel

an

dP

an

am

aM

alt

aC

ost

a R

ica

Fran

ce

Ba

ku

(A

zerb

aij

an

)S

pa

inL

ux

emb

ou

rgG

erm

an

yB

elg

ium

AV

GG

reec

eIt

aly

Net

her

lan

ds

Sw

itze

rla

nd

Port

ug

al

Slo

ven

iaN

orw

ay

Au

stri

aD

enm

ark

Est

on

iaL

eba

no

nS

wed

enIc

ela

nd

Fin

lan

d

Sco

re-p

oin

t d

if.

Before accounting for socio-economic status

After accounting for socio-economic statusImmigrant students scored higher than

non-immigrant students

Immigrant students scored lower than

non-immigrant students

• Little difference

between

migrant/non-

migrant

• Immigrants

actually scored

higher after

SES adjustment

III. A. Student: Life Satisfaction and Reading Performance


BSJZ

• Data shows:

Reading high, life

satisfaction low

• Generally

negatively related

to Reading (except

FIN, EST)

Ref: OECD Vol III – Page 161 Fig III.11.5


Chile

Montenegro

Japan

Mexico

Kazakhstan

Hungary

France

Canada

Serbia

Macao (China)

Jordan

United States

Argentina

Denmark

Malaysia

LebanonMorocco

Ireland

Ukraine

Brunei Darussalam

Slovenia

Qatar

Italy

Australia

Peru

Croatia

Germany

Panama

Malta

Dominican Republic

Austria

Russian Federation

Albania

Czech Republic

Iceland

Bulgaria

Estonia

Sweden

LatviaSwitzerland

Singapore

Korea

Spain

Moldova

New Zealand

Hong Kong (China)

Belgium

Colombia

Turkey

NetherlandsLithuania

Georgia

B-S-J-Z (China)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Thailand

Baku (Azerbaijan)

Romania

Finland

Poland

Kosovo

Portugal

Brazil

Costa RicaUnited Arab Emirates

Slovak Republic

Uruguay

Indonesia

Republic of North Macedonia

Chinese Taipei

Saudi Arabia

Greece

Philippines

Luxembourg

Belarus

United Kingdom

R² = 0.12

330

380

430

480

530

-0.5 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7

Aver

age

read

ing s

core

Mean index of fear of failure

OECD average

OE

CD

aver

age

Gre

ater

fear

of

failu

reFear of Failure and Reading Performance

III.B. Fear of Failure and Academic Performance

BSJZ

• HK on high side with

other high performing

economies

Ref: OECD Vol III – Page 193 Fig III.13.4

III. C. Sense of Meaning in Life: HK average


United States

B-S-J-Z (China)

Finland

AVG

Hong Kong (China)

Estonia

Poland

Australia

Sweden

Ireland

Macao (China)

United Kingdom

Chinese Taipei

Japan

-0.50 -0.30 -0.10 0.10 0.30 0.50 0.70

Index of meaning in life

BSJZ

III. D. % expect to complete Tertiary: ave % (disadv %, adv %)


10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Sin

gap

ore

Uk

rain

eK

ore

aU

nit

ed S

tate

sT

urk

eyC

anad

aP

eru

Co

sta

Ric

aC

hil

eM

exic

oU

nit

ed A

rab

Em

irat

esIr

elan

dM

on

ten

egro

Fra

nce

B-S

-J-Z

(C

hin

a)Q

atar

Bel

aru

sS

erb

iaS

pai

nM

acao

(C

hin

a)C

hin

ese

Tai

pei

Hong K

on

g (

Ch

ina)

Co

lom

bia

Bra

zil

Gre

ece

Jap

anG

eorg

iaIn

do

nes

iaP

ort

ug

alIs

rael

Mal

aysi

aL

ith

uan

iaP

anam

aE

sto

nia

Sw

eden

OE

CD

Av

erag

eN

eth

erla

nd

sB

elg

ium

Th

aila

nd

Sau

di

Ara

bia

Au

stra

lia

No

rway

Arg

enti

na

Vie

t N

amB

osn

ia a

nd H

erze

go

vin

aB

runei

Dar

uss

alam

Slo

ven

iaS

lovak

Rep

ub

lic

Ko

sovo

Alb

ania

Lat

via

Russ

ian F

eder

atio

nR

epubli

c of

Nort

h M

aced

on

iaC

zech

Rep

ub

lic

Bu

lgar

iaU

nit

ed K

ing

dom

Den

mar

kP

hil

ipp

ines

Fin

lan

dB

aku (

Aze

rbai

jan

)D

om

inic

an R

epu

bli

cJo

rdan

Icel

and

Lux

embo

urg

Mal

taN

ew Z

eala

nd

Ro

man

iaIt

aly

Kaz

akh

stan

Po

lan

dU

rugu

ayS

wit

zerl

and

Hu

ng

ary

Cro

atia

Leb

ano

nA

ust

ria

Mold

ov

aM

oro

cco

Ger

man

y

All students Disadvantaged students Advantaged students%

• Singapore

95% (92, 97),

• BSJZ-CN

78% (63%,

94%)

• Macau 76%

(67, 89)

• HK 76% (60,

91)

• Estonia 70%

(54, 86%)

• Finland 64

(45, 82)

BSJZ


IV. A. Students’ Meta-Cognition: HK compared to other High Achieving Economies


EstoniaB-S-J-Z

(China)

OECD

AverageSingapore

Macao

(China)Finland

Hong

Kong

(China)

Understanding and

Remembering0.19 0.17 -0.01 -0.05 -0.08 -0.10 -0.30

Summarising 0.07 -0.12 0.00 0.04 -0.23 0.02 -0.53

Assess Credibility 0.05 0.05 -0.01 0.16 -0.13 0.19 -0.15

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Sca

led

Sco

re

• HK < other high achieving

economies in “understanding

& remembering” (underline

important parts of text),

“summarizing”(write in own

words), “assess credibility”

(check message credibility)

• Estonia, BSJZ high

understanding, remembering

• Estonia, Singapore, Finland

better in summarizing

• Singapore, Finland better in

assess credibility

• HK generally weak in all

BSJZ

IV. B. Students’ Resources: HK compared to other High Achieving Economies


FINOECD

AVESGP EST

MAC-

CN

BSJZ-

CN

HK-

CN

Cultural Possessions at Home 0.18 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 -0.21 -0.22 -0.27

Home Educational Resources -0.32 -0.03 0.16 0.15 -0.10 0.15 -0.19

ICT resources 0.15 -0.04 0.11 0.02 -0.23 -0.58 -0.29

-0.70

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30S

cale

d S

core

BSJZ

• Cultural resources

(literature, art work): FIN

> SGP, EST > MAC,

BSJZ > HK

• Home Ed Resource (desk,

quiet place, computer, tech

reference): SGP, EST,

BSJZ >> MAC > HK >

FIN

• ICT (internet, software):

FIN,SGP > EST > MAC,

HK > BSJZ

• HK families: no culture,

low Ed resources, low ICT

IV. C. Perceived School Climate: HK compared to other High Achieving Economies


BSJZ-

CNSGP HK-CN

OECD

AveEstonia

Macao-

CNFinland

Disciplinary Climate in

Test Language Lessons0.79 0.09 0.24 0.04 0.20 0.12 -0.11

Teacher Support in

Test Language Lessons0.36 0.24 -0.02 0.01 -0.11 -0.08 0.21

Perceived Teacher's Interest 0.29 0.27 0.06 0.01 -0.08 -0.12 -0.15

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Sca

led

Sco

re

• Discipline climate:

HK ~ others

• All worse than

BSZJ

• Teacher support:

BSZL, Singapore,

Finland > HK >

Estonia, Macao

• Teacher Interest in

Student: BSZJ,

Singapore > HK,

Estonia > Macao,

Finland

BSJZ

IV. D. Student: Teacher Support


B-S-J-Z (China)

United Kingdom

Australia

New Zealand

Singapore

Finland

Iceland

Korea

Ireland

United States

Sweden

Japan

Latvia

Chinese Taipei

AVG

Hong Kong (China)

Macao (China)

Estonia

Poland

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4Mean index

HK average in

teacher support

BSJZ

Documents

KIT-TAI HAU The Chinese University of Hong Kong