Upload
citywirewebsite
View
342
Download
3
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Citation preview
Your Gateway to SEE Markets
CITYWIRE VIENNA
FORUM 2013,
12 March 2013
KD Asset Management
Leading South East European Asset Manager
* Please see disclosures on back page
Since 1994, the KD Group has developed into one
of the largest privately owned insurance groups
in SEE
KD Group PLC
The leading asset management company in SEE
13 investment professionals located across the SEE region (Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia, Montenegro, Romania and Macedonia) responsible for managing approx. EUR 500m
The first Slovenian specialist life insurance company
Developed the unit-linked market in Slovenia still considered the most innovative company in the life segment
The fastest-growing Croatian unit-linked life company
The 3rd largest insurance company in Slovenia
Unique position in health insurance
Presence in Slovenia and Serbia
KD
Asset Managemen
t
KD Funds, Slovenia
SAI KD Investments, Romania
KD Investments
, Croatia
KD Fondovi,
Macedonia
KD Asset management has 18 years of investing
experience and has been extensively investing in the SEE
region for more than 10 years
Local analysts speak the local language and understand
the market dynamics
Local knowledge - analysts are located throughout the
region where:
the markets are extremely inefficient,
what is required are specialised skills, which are
similar to those in private equity investing, and
there is a diversity of languages.
KD analysts have an extensive information network
which is imperative when dealing in these relationship-
based markets
KD analysts can access tightly held/concentrated
shareholdings
In addition to managing mutual funds in Slovenia, Croatia,
Romania and Macedonia, KD also manages two
privatisation funds in Bosnia and an investment company
in Montenegro. Further, it manages two additional
mandates (a Russian fund and a CEE fund) for a
Slovakian asset management company
14 mutual funds
6 institutional mandates
9 investment
professionals
1 mutual funds
1 investment professional
5 mutual funds
1 investment professional
3 mutual funds
1 investment professional
Unique combination of experience, local
presence and global allocation capabilities
Initial screening
Investible universe
Idea generation
Approved stock list
Investment Process
Macro-economics & strategy
Risk matrix Cycle & earnings potential
Relative money flow
Global allocation guidelines
5
Analytics Portfolio construction Portfolio revision
TOP-DOWN: Country/sector allocation
BOTTOM-UP: Stock selection
South East European region
SEE: South East Europe
Slovenia: EU Member 2004, pop. 2m
Romania: EU Member 2007, pop. 21m
Bulgaria: EU Member 2007, pop. 8m
Croatia: EU Member exp. July 2013, pop. 4m
Macedonia: EU Candidate 2004, pop. 2m
Serbia: EU Candidate 2012, pop. 8m
Bosnia & Herzegovina: pop. 4m
CEE: Central & East Europe
Poland: EU Member 2004, pop. 38m
Czech Rep.: EU Member 2004, pop. 10m
Hungary: EU Member 2004, pop. 10m
Core Region Narrow Strategic
Region
Broad Strategic
Region
We are an SEE asset manager with a focus on the
emerging European Union
Long-term drivers
Increasing political stability
Low correlation with other equity markets
Countries are either EU members or in the EU
accession process
Healthy economic growth prospects
Inexpensive but highly educated workforce
Increasingly positive investment climate
Capital markets are being liberalised
Adoption of the euro typically acts as a stimulus for
M&A activity
Short-term drivers
Privatisation process ongoing
The cycle is turning for the majority of East
European markets
We see a new bull market forming over the course of
the next 5 years
Top-down macro factors will loosen their grip but still
remain important
Stock-specific bottom-up factors will be more in the
spotlight
Risk aversion will fade and risky assets will
outperform
So it’s time for more aggressive positioning
Reasons to invest in the SEE & CEE region
Correlation + Convergence = Alpha
8
The uniqueness of the EU convergence process in the region combined
with a relatively low correlation provide attractive opportunities for
investors
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Stoxx Balkan ex TR & GR vs MSCI AC World
Stoxx Balkan ex TR & GR vs MSCI Emerging Markets
MSCI Emerging Markets vs MSCI AC World
Data: Bloomberg;
Annual correlations calculated
based on weekly data in EUR 9
Correlation
Great diversification opportunities both against developed and
emerging markets
Convergence
There is evidence that CEE and particularly SEE markets are not yet integrated into global portfolios since their expected returns reflect higher stand-alone risk excluding their lower covariances with global portfolios
Convergence towards the EU will attract foreign capital flows into the region as markets become more liberalised and countries complete the privatisation process. This will have a positive impact on the cost of capital, increasing economic activity and potentially further increasing the trend growth rates of the economy
Moving towards integration with the EU will force SEE countries to speed up the structural reforms needed to satisfy EU requirements which would further reduce the cost of capital and contribute positively to economic growth
Opportunity:
Investors willing to participate in the early stages of this process are more likely to reap the benefits of equity prices not reflecting the risk contribution to global portfolios but instead the higher stand-alone risk, resulting in a higher than expected return on equity.
Liberalisation + Privatisation + Structural Reforms = Lower Cost of Capital & Higher GDP
10
Pattern of past recoveries and the current
situation
0
50
100
150
200
250
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
I
n
d
e
x
e
d
V
a
l
u
e
E
U
R
Synchronized date (years)
Local high before crisis = 100
Crisis composite index
MSCI World AC
MSCI Emerging Markets
Lower band - historical volatility (2std. Dev.)
Upper band - historical volatility (2std. Dev.)
STOXX Balkan ex-Greece & Turkey
MSCI Frontier Markets
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
EXTREMELY OVERVALUED
EXTREMELY UNDERVALUED
Attractive valuation in SEE SEE blue chip basket compared to cycle normalised EPS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Top cycle valuations hit 30x normalized
EPS. Some markets like Slovenia experience even loftier valuations reflecting the tendency of SEE markets
toward extreme overshooting.
1999 – 2013 average P/nE: 11,9
Investment policy:
The fund's investment objective is long-term capital growth,
which will be pursued through the active management of
investments in equities in the Balkans. At least 85% of the
fund's assets is placed in shares, and at least 80% is
allocated to shares in the region comprising Slovenia,
Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro,
Macedonia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey. Less
than 10% of the fund's assets is allocated to units of other
funds.
13
KD Balkans The easiest way to get an exposure to the SEE region
Management company KD Funds, LLC
Fund’s incorporation date 24.02.2006
NAV (€'000) on date: 31.01.2013 22.320
Fund type
Equity Southeast
Europe
Subscription fee 3.00%
Management fee 2.49%
Ongoing charges (Jan. 2012 - Dec. 2012) 2.86%
PTR (Jan. 2012 - Dec. 2012) 35.99%
Geographical focus Southeast European
countries
Benchmark
STOXX® Balkan TMI ex Greece & Turkey Index 100%
Past returns
1-year 5.58%
3-year (cumulative) -28.53%
5-year (cumulative) -71.19%
Average weekly return 0.17%
Standard deviation of weekly return 1.45%
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
31
/01
/201
0
30
/04
/201
0
31
/07
/201
0
31
/10
/201
0
31
/01
/201
1
30
/04
/201
1
31
/07
/201
1
31
/10
/201
1
31
/01
/201
2
30
/04
/201
2
31
/07
/201
2
31
/10
/201
2
31
/01
/201
3
KD Balkans - Changes in unit value (in EUR)
14
KD Balkans Top 10 Holdings & Geographical Breakdown
Romania and Serbia are the fund’s largest overweights.
We like Romania’s economic prospects, reform and
privatisation agenda and relatively low political risk in
the near future. In Serbia, we expect 2013 GDP growth
in the 2% range and further fiscal consolidation with a
potential IMF precautionary deal boosting credibility.
The overweight in Serbia results from conviction calls on
companies like NIS and AIK bank.
Croatia is the largest underweight. We see a budget
planned on unrealistic forecasts and expect a revision in
the next couple of months. GDP could well be in the
negative territory in 2013, with tourism as one of the
best performing sectors.
Slovenia is a tactical underweight due to political
uncertainties which are currently at elevated levels.
Announced privatisation plans could be a boost to the
stock market but their realisation depends on political
will.
Bulgaria and Macedonia are equal weights.
Romania32%
Slovenia31%
Serbia15%
Croatia10%
Bosnia and Herzegovina
4%
Macedonia3%
Bulgaria4%
Other1%
Top 10 holdings as at: 31.01.2013
OMV PETROM SA 9.29%
NAFTNA INDUSTRIJA SRBIJE 6.7%
BRD-GROUPE SOCIETE GENERALE 6.10%
KRKA 5.70%
BANCA TRANSILVANIA 5.26%
FONDUL PROPRIETATEA SA/FUND 4.31%
AIK BANKA AD 3.03%
PETROL D.D. 2.77%
KOMERCIALNA BANKA BEOGRAD 2.52%
SOJAPROTEIN 2.41%