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June 2010
Proximity Talks: What’s Next?
York University
Vision21st Century Zionism
MissionSignificant & Substantive Impact
StrategyBe Israel's Primary Resource for Decision-Support
Grow Israel's Future Strategists
The Reut Institute
Militarized PL State
Foreign forces using PL
Terrorism and Rocket fire
IL Leaves: Security ThreatMilitary Logic: Stay
Israel’s Challenge: Balancing Clash of Logics
Demographic Burden
Erosion of 2SS
Logic of Implosion
IL Stays: Political ThreatPolitical Logic: Leave
What is the main threat from the Palestinians?
PL Disenchantment with Political Process
Fayyad’s State Building
Economic Measures vs. Israel
‘White’ Intifada
Negotiation by Proxy
Palestinians: Frustration & the Search for Strategy
Obama Administration: Raising Bar Too High?
Arab States: Normalization
Israel: Settlement
Freeze
Palestinians: Greater Security / End Incitement
Negotiations Leading to Permanent Status Agreement within 2 Years
The Middle East peace process has not moved forward. And I think it's fair to say that for all our efforts at early
engagement, it is not where I want it to be…If we had anticipated some of these political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high
The Structure of the Political Process
How to reach Permanent Status?
Permanent Status (Definition):
•End of Israeli Responsibility
•A Palestinian State alongside IL
•Historical Issues: agreed resolution
How to end control over the Palestinians?
Permanent Agreement
Palestinian State First (agreed)
PSPB (Return to Roadmap)
First Agreement, then PL State
End of Conflict, Finality of Claims
2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA
Annapolis and Oslo The Road Map
IL Govt. Weakness
Package Agreement: Structural Issues
No ZOPA
PL Division
PSA
Serious Disagreements on Historic Issues + Security
Shaky Center Right Coalition
Constitutional Crisis: Abbas lacks Legitimacy
Increasing Division between Gaza & WB
PSPB Approach: Structural Problems
No ZOPAPalestinian
Split
Hamas may support: Part of Phased Plan; Fatah Not a Partner
Growing Split Between Gaza & WBHow Will the Agreement be Ratified?
PSPB
No Palestinian Ratification means No Israeli Ratification
An Unratified Agreement May Bring About PA Collapse
Vacuum Filled by Other Suggestions
Unilateral Recognition
Obama Parameters
Borders FirstArab Peace Initiative
Status Quo Promotes 1SS
PSA Unobtainable
Agreed PSPB:No Partner
Economic Peace
Unacceptable
How to end control over the Palestinians?
Permanent Agreement
Palestinian State First (agreed)
No Agreement: Upgrading the PA
PSPB (Return to Roadmap)
First Agreement, then PL State
End of Conflict, Finality of Claims
2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA
Systematic Buildup; PL State;
Permanent Agreement
Palestinian State First (de-facto)
Building PL State bypasses Constitutional Crisis
How to Advance the Creation of a State?
Gestures Consolidating the
Status of Moderate Forces Inside the System Without
Strengthening the PA
Strengthen PA
Actions aimed at strengthening PA’s
powers & authorities of within framework
of existing agreements.
Upgrade PASystematically
transferring powers & authorities above those that exist by
virtue of the Interim Agreement
Power to Establish Consulates Abroad,
Issuing Currency
Dayton and Blair’s Actions for
Restoring the Palestinian Police
Remove Checkpoints, Ease
Restrictions, Promote
Investment
Only Israel Can ‘Upgrade’ the PA
To Lead or be Led? That is the Question
With a Plan, Israel Leads
Without a Plan Israel gets Led
If Israel Wants to Lead – it needs a New Political Strategy
If wants to be Led - Not at Expense of ‘Special Relations’