June 15, 2020

Thai Enquirer Summary

Economic News

Today is the 1st day of the total lifting of the ‘lockdown’ that was implemented after

the outbreak of the Coronavirus or COVID-19

The lockdown ended starting 23:00 hrs last night and night businesses were

yet to return to their normal scene all across the country.

The lifting of the ‘lockdown’ is on a test run for 15-days to see how things will

go forward.

The lifting of the lockdown is conditional and the ‘state of emergency’

remains in place and many people who have been gathering at the various

protest moments have been summoned to come to police station for

questioning for gathering during a state of emergency.

After this lifting of the ‘lockdown’ the government is looking for welcoming up to

1,000 tourists per day with a select few countries that have managed their COVID-19

outbreak

These countries include the likes of

China

Japan

South Korea

Australia

New Zealand

Laos

Myanmar

Cambodia

Taiwan

Hong Kong & Macau

And possibly Vietnam

The target group is business travellers and those wanting medical services and

treatment in Thailand.

It is reported that a new travel scheme or the so-called “Travel Bubble”

scheme has been developed by 4 ministries to allow countries which have

managed to control the spread of COVID-19 or have low risk of infection to

visit Thailand without the need to enter quarantine for 14 days.

The “Travel Bubble” scheme is a new concept in tourism, which is gaining

popularity among countries which have managed to contain the spread of the

contagion, said deputy government spokeswoman Traisulee Traisoranakul.

The Tourism and Sports Ministry expects the scheme to partially reboot the

country’s ailing tourism industry adding that, initially, the scheme will target

the medical tourism market.

Thanawat Phonwichai, director of the UTCC’s Centre for Economic and Business

Forecasting, warned of an upward trend in household debt, demanding close

monitoring from the government.

The UTCC forecast that Thailand’s household debt is likely to rise from 79%

of total GDP to more than 80% of total GDP very soon, citing the high level of

informal loans with high interest rates by households, investments, non-

performing loans (NPLs) for housing and car loans while the country is

weathering the adverse effects of the COVID-19, Thanawat said.

Meanwhile, the National Economic and Social Development Council

(NESDC, formerly called the National Economic and Social Development

Board (NESDB), agreed as it said the Covid-19 crisis has had a massive

impact on household debt and it is expected to rise to more than 80% of GDP.

Thai household debt stood at 79.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in

the first quarter of this year.

The pandemic resulted in businesses shutting down in addition to the drought

already having hit households hard, leading to increased borrowing of money

as incomes declined, NESDC Secretary-General Thosaporn Sirisumphand

said, warning that the economic impact will be severe in the 2nd

quarter as

many businesses have laid off workers, or cut their employees’ salaries.

The income shock led to continued expansion of consumers loans, growing

7.1% while consumer loans expanded 7.5% in the 4th

quarter of last year, said

Thosaporn.

NPLs arising from consumption loans is about 3.23% of total consumption

loans, up from 2.9% in the 4th

quarter of last year. Bad debts amounted to 156

billion baht, he added.

The National Credit Bureau (NCB) said it saw an upsurge in non-performing loans

(NPLs) created by Generation Y at the end of the 1st quarter. Gen Y has the biggest

slice of debt amounting to 4 trillion baht, with 270 billion baht being NPLs, followed

by total debt of Generation X amounting to 3.7 trillion baht, with 280 billion baht

being NPLs; baby boomers at 84 billion baht, and Gen Z at 1.2 billion each, according

to NCB data.

NCB chief executive Surapol Opasatien said 50% of 840,000 personal loan

accounts belong to Gen Y while this group was also the major contributor to

household debt and NPLs in the first quarter. Gen Y borrowers represent 1.6

million overdue personal loan accounts, creating more than 100 billion baht in

NPL while Gen X borrowers represent more than 1.1 million overdue personal

loan accounts, creating nearly 140 billion baht in outstanding loans.

The NCB is keeping a close watch on Gen Z borrowers are between 38 and 54

years old who have loans across all consumer borrowing categories. The NCB

chief also warned of the scenario of debt-servicing ability amid coronavirus-

induced income shocks.

Minister of Finance Uttama Savanayana continues his push for the “Kao Tor Pai Rao

Mai Thing Kan (Move Forward, we won’t leave anyone behind) scheme to drive the

economy at the grassroots level, Phalang Prachart Party spokesman Thanakorn

Wangboonkongchana, as the Finance Minister’s secretary, revealed.

Uttama is said to send teams from the ministry to assist local people

nationwide on June 18 while Uttama himself is set to attend the opening of a

local project to boost the grassroots economy of Village Funds ad community

enterprises in Samut Prakan province.

Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak will preside over the opening of

the project.

Political News

On the new development on Phalang Pracharat Party (PPRP)’s leadership change, it is

now certain that Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan looks set to take the

PPRP’s helm.

Paisal Puchmongkol, former advisor to Gen Prawit, wrote on his Facebook

page confirming that a reshuffle of Phalang Pracharat executive committee

members is now completed. He said the party is just waiting for the right time

to make an official announcement and that it is not easy to change a party

manager but what is harder is the “government manager”.

Paisal went on to cite records of changes to leadership posts of several parties

in the past that involved “men in uniforms” such as Pol Gen Pao Sriyanont,

who was tipped to manage the pro-military Seri Manangkhasila Party, General

Prapas Jarusathien, who was tipped to manage the Sahaprachathai Party; Air

Chief Marshal Somboon Rahong who managed the National Peace-keeping

Council (NPC)-backed party as well as Maj Gen Sanan Kachornprasart, who

was tipped to manage the Democrat Party.

Paisal said he cited all these late military figures of the past because he wanted

to confirm that Gen Prawit is now taking control of the PPRP.

The latest Super Poll survey found that numbers of opponents of the government grew

larger to 54.4% from 52.2% in the previous survey after the Phalang Pracharat Party

(PPRP)’s executive committee members resigned en masse. The survey found that

numbers of government supporters declined to 22.3% while those who count

themselves in the silent majority down to 23.3% to 27.4%.

People were asked to express their political sentiment from November 2019

until after easing of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions in June 2020, said Super

Poll Research Office director Noppadol Kannikar.

The poll was carried out during June 5-13, 2020 on the topic, “People and

their political views”. The survey was conducted on 3,087 people aged 18 and

above from all walks of life.

When asked about their quality of life after the current government took office

more than 1 year, a majority of respondents or 43.2% said their quality of life

was worse than before; 31.5% said it was worse as usual; 21.9% said it

remained the same while merely 3.4% said their lives are better.

Pheu Thai Party spokesman Anusorn Iamsa-ard called for Prime Minister

Prayut Chan-o-cha to dissolve parliament, citing that a majority of people,

70.5%, wants Gen Prayut to dissolve the House to return sovereign power to

the people to allow a snap election to be called, according to the results of a

Super Poll survey on the topic, “Khon Dee, Kan Mueang” [Good people and

Politics in Thai] conducted during June 9-12,

Meanwhile, 17.5% of respondents want to see a reshuffle of the cabinet while

11.7% wants the current cabinet to keep working. Super Poll Research Office

director Noppadol Kannikar said the dissolution of the House is the best

option for Gen Prayut at the moment if he wants to avoid foreseeable turmoil

inside his government at the end of the year.

Mr Anusorn pointed that Gen Prayut cannot maintain the state of emergency

in order to strengthen his power forever. Gen Prayut has 2 options -- stepping

down or dissolving the House to take responsibility for his administration

failure for the past 6 years.

Speculation is rife that the prospect of local elections is ridden with uncertainty

following reports that Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam came out to admit

that a budget set aside for the local polls has been drawn into a central pool to fund

the fight against Covid-19.

Wissanu said the prospect of local elections scheduled to be held later this

year could be pushed back after all budgets set aside for local administrative

organisations to organise local polls have been transferred to the

government’s central fund to fight the pandemic, raising the questions that

local bodies may not have enough funds to finance the polls.

Unlike general elections, local administrative bodies have to use their own

budgets allocated by the Ministry of Interior to organise the polls, Wissanu

said, adding that the government only covers central budgets allocated for the

Election Commission (EC). The Interior Ministry oversees the readiness of

local elections by informing the government to ask the EC to set the date for

local polls.

Suthin Khlangsaeng, the opposition chief whip and Pheu Thai MP for Maha

Sarakham, came out to slam Wissanu following his comment about

insufficient funds to hold local polls. Suthin is convinced that local

administrative bodies already set aside budgets to organise local elections

and the government can still add more funding to enable local polls to

happen. However, the prospect of local elections being held this year is

unlikely, Suthin said, calling for clarity on the issue from the government. He

wants the government to prioritise polls in special administrative areas such

as Bangkok and Pattaya first, followed by the municipality elections and the

election of tambon administrative bodies.

Meanwhile, Soekarno Matha, a Prachachat MP for Yala’s constituency 2 and

chairman of the House panel on decentralisation and special administration,

demanded local elections to be held this year, saying that the order issued by

the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) head under Section 44 of

the Interim Constitution to temporarily change the nomination process of

members of local councils and local administrators that has been in place for

8 years is too long.

There is intense speculation that the opposition Pheu Thai party is on a the verge of

split amid incentives being offered by those with the budget dispensing capabilities.

The Pheu Thai party seems to be a situation that has many of its members

looking to join up with Seri Ruam Thai party (which is also on the opposition

side)

Lt Gen Paradon Pattanathaboot a key leader of the Pheu Thai party has come

out to openly accept that there was such a possibility of Seri Ruam Thai party

splitting to set up a new party but denied that he was going to join any of the

new parties.

“As of now I am not involved or am going to join this new party” Mr.

Paradon said in an interview early today.

The Progressive Movement announced an online political program called the

“Common School” via YouTube of the Progressive Movement and Podcast via The

Progressive Podcast. The program was launched from 18.00 hrs on June 14.

Piyabutr Saengkanokkul, Progressive Movement’s Secretary-General, said

the Common School serves the Movement’s goal of putting an end to political

squabbling in Thai politics, bringing about changes for better Thailand by

materialising the concept of “sovereign power belonging to the people”.

The Common School will offer the first program, “COVID-1984” featuring

keynote speakers from various fields including prominent historian Nidhi

Eoseewong, Chulalongkorn University political science professor Surachart

Bumrungsuk, Sirikanya Tansakul, former list MP and policy director of the

now-defunct Future Forward Party (FFP), Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit,

former leader of the FFP and Piyabutr himself.

General News

The Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) reported just one more

COVID-19 case today, while there have been no locally-transmitted infections for 20

consecutive days.

The new case is a Thai woman who returned from the United States and

entered state quarantine in Bangkok, bringing up the cumulative infections in

Thailand to 3,135, with 2,987 recoveries and 90 still in hospital. The death toll

remains at 58.

On the global front the number of cases has reached near 8 million cases and death

rate is at around 437,000 across the globe

The fear of 2nd

wave was visible in China with many parts of Beijing being

shut down amid an outbreak of a cluster over the weekend.

Political News Headlines in Thai Media

Thai generals past and present have joined together to mock US General Mark Milley

for apologising to the public for taking part in a photo opportunity with US President

Donald Trump and for saying that the military should serve the people.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/14343/siamese-satirist-thai-generals-make-

fun-of-general-mark-milley-for-apologizing-to-the-public-saying-military-should-

not-be-involved-in-politics/

It started with shock, outrage, and it became an uproar.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/14319/the-black-lives-matter-movement-

must-exist-beyond-trend-jumping-virtue-signalling/

The Center for COVID-19 Situation Administration (CCSA) said on Friday that the

curfew will be lifted and Phase 4 of the easing period will commence from Monday,

June 15 onwards.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/14356/curfew-to-be-lifted-phase-4-will-

begin-on-monday/

Thailand’s government said on Sunday that it had discovered one new coronavirus

case in the country; a Thai returning from abroad and in state quarantine.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/14385/one-new-coronavirus-case-discovered-

in-thailand-2/

Police have summonsed at least three people to answer charges of violating the

Emergency Decree in connection with a recent gathering to demand a probe into the

disappearance in Cambodia of pro-democracy activist Wanchalearm Satsaksit.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1934700/3-protesters-

breached-govt-decree

The likely rise of Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwon to the leadership of the

ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) will be the binding agent which holds the party

together and cements the hold on power by the "brothers in arms", according to a

source.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/1934752/pms-fate-in-big-

brothers-hands

The dissolution of the Future Forward Party has hit the opposition hard, severely

undermining its ability to scrutinise the government's performance.

o Link-

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30389611?utm_source=category&utm_me

dium=internal_referral

Local elections may suffer a further delay with budget earmarked to finance them

now shifted to fight the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Deputy Prime Minister

Wissanu Krea-ngam.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/politics/1934708/coronavirus-ate-

local-poll-budget-claims-wissanu

The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) released a list of assets and

liabilities of two former Constitutional Court judges and three new ones.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1934012/nacc-details-

assets-of-five-top-judges

Economic News Headlines in Thai Media

Analysts and economic groups told Thai Enquirer this week that the Thai government

should join formal negotiations on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for

Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in August.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/14303/representatives-from-the-private-

sector-urge-the-government-to-join-cptpp-negotiations-despite-opposition-from-

the-public/

The Ministry of Finance (MOF) announced via the royal gazette on Friday that the

Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s liabilities have reached 6.13 trillion baht.

o Link- https://www.thaienquirer.com/14361/bots-liabilities-have-reached-6-13-

trillion-baht-in-april/

The Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) has allowed 11 more businesses

and leisure activities to resume in the capital including the serving of alcohol at

restaurants now the curfew has been lifted.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1934704/city-hall-gives-

green-light-to-more-activities-as-curfew-lifts

Charoen Pokphand Group (CP Group) will deliver free face masks to vulnerable

sections of society, starting with the Thailand Association of the Blind and Autistic

Thai Foundation, so that they can protect themselves from Covid-19.

o Link-

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30389584?utm_source=category&utm_me

dium=internal_referral

One thousand foreign visitors are expected to be allowed entry to Thailand per day

and the standard 14-day Covid-19 quarantine rule will be waived, according to an

implementation plan for "travel bubbles" to be submitted for the Centre for Covid-19

Situation Administration (CCSA)'s approval on Wednesday.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1934696/foreigners-to-be-

allowed-in

The Revenue Department has signed an agreement on mutual tax cooperation with

160 countries -- a move that will enable Thailand to tackle tax evasion by foreign e-

service providers.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/1934768/govt-accord-set-

to-tackle-tax-evasion

Despite the easing of stringent lockdown measures, the 3.6-trillion-baht retail industry

remains far from a full recovery, and nearly all business operators in the sector are

struggling to regain business.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1934960/malls-adjust-to-lowered-

expectations

The Commerce Ministry is seeking more than 6 billion baht to fund various projects

aimed primarily at helping farmers increase sales by improving their product

distribution channels, a source at the ministry said.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1934760/commerce-ministry-

seeks-b6bn-to-bolster-recovery

The Treasury Department has instructed Dhanarak Asset Development to branch into

developing other types of property, starting with residential projects for civil servants,

with the goal of boosting annual income remittance tenfold to 1 billion baht.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1934848/dhanarak-asset-casts-

wider-net

Krungthai Bank (KTB) plans to accelerate its branch downsizing and consolidation

schedule for 80-100 sites this year, aiming to maintain half of existing staff by having

them work from home to adapt to post-pandemic behaviour.

o Link- https://www.bangkokpost.com/business/1934852/ktb-speeds-up-branch-

consolidation-plan

The State Railway of Thailand (SRT) is reportedly expected to submit its investment

plan for the second phase of double rail-track development for the Cabinet’s

consideration in September.

o Link-

https://www.nationthailand.com/business/30389601?utm_source=category&utm_

medium=internal_referral

Issues to be watched out for

May 26-June 16, 2020 – The application period for the next governor of the Bank of

Thailand (BoT).

May 29, 2020 - The deadline for those who missed out on the government’s 5,000-

baht cash handout scheme who wish to appeal their case to the Finance Ministry.

June 20, 2020 – A by-election on the Constituency 4 of Lampang is expected to be

held.

June 24, 2020 – The Bank of Thailand (BoT) is set to announce its forecast of the

country’s gross domestic product (GDP) of this year.

June 25, 2020 – The deadline for the Office of Attorney General (OAG) whether to

appeal or not appeal the lower court’s acquittal of Panthongtae “Oak” Shinawatra, son

of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, for alleged money laundering.

June 30, 2020 – The Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand (CAAT) is expected to lift

ban on incoming flights.

June 30, 2020 – The government is expected to lift lockdown restrictions imposed

under the emergency decree.

July 2020 – The Expressway of Thailand (EXAT)’s planned opening schedule of the

new Motorway Route 7 Section from Pattaya to Map Ta Phut.

July 2, 2020 – The shortlist of candidates for the new governor of the Bank of

Thailand (BoT) will be concluded.

July 15, 2020 – The House is set to deliberate on the draft budget bill for the 2021

fiscal year.

July 16, 2020 – The deadline set for the Phalang Pracharat Party (PPRP) to hold a

general assembly to select a new executive board.

August, 17, 2020 – The first day of hearings for Thai Airways International Plc

(THAI)’s bankruptcy case.

August 29, 2020 – The deadline for farmers to return the banned agri-chemicals,

paraquat and chlorpyrifos, in their possession to sellers.

September 21, 2020 – The National Economic and Social Development Council

(NESDC, formerly known as the National Economic and Social Development Board

or NESDB) is to revise the 20-year national strategy at an annual meeting to respond

to the COVID-19 crisis.

September 30, 2020 – The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is set to extend the

revised equity short-selling regulations from June 30 to September 30 as stock market

volatility remains high in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic.

October, 2020 – The bidding for construction and operation for the 140-billion-baht

Orange Line western extension linking the Thailand Cultural Centre with Bang Khun

Non.

October, 2020 – The Thailand Grand Prix was rescheduled after being postponed due

to the coronavirus outbreak.

Key Data

SET Index 1,382.56 -14.21

Link - https://www.set.or.th/en/company/ipo/upcoming_ipo_set.html

Global Commodities

Metal -Link http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/futures/metals/

Energy -Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/

Baltic Dry Index (BDI)-Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND

Global Equity Market’s Movements

Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/asia-

pacific/

Asian Equity Markets Movement

Link - http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/

Information on June 12, 2020

Buying, Selling or Transfer of shares by Owners/Management

Stock Code Volume Value Action

CIG 3,000,000 0.03 Sale

CHAYO 381,500 6.14 Purchase

ECL 30,000,000 0.9 Purchase

ECL 30,000,000 0.9 Sale

EP 150,000 3.62 Purchase

ILM 400,000 11.78 Purchase

KKP 200,000 48.5 Sale

LPH 18,500 4.54 Purchase

LPH 40,040 4.58 Purchase

MINT 129,200 2 Sale

MTC 90,100 55.75 Purchase

PLANET 5,000 0.81 Purchase

PLANET 6,800 0.83 Purchase

PSH 100,000 12.7 Sale

ZMICO 100,000 0.68 Purchase

Revoked by

Reporter

ZMICO 1,170,000 0.69 Purchase

ZMICO 100,000 0.68 Purchase

VIH 38,000 6.85 Purchase

SMT 4,500,000 0.93 Purchase

SMT 4,500,000 1.2 Purchase

SUN 89,900 2 Purchase

TCCC 1,400 20.2 Purchase

TRUBB 223,000 2.04 Sale

TU 200,000 11.95 Purchase

THG 50,000 20 Purchase

TMT 10,000 3.51 Purchase

TMT 10,000 4.11 Purchase

DTAC 10,000 41.75 Sale

UVAN 120,000 4.31 Purchase

XD, XE or XM or other notifications

For list of Companies that have dividend payment and AGM meeting schedules click on

http://www.set.or.th/set/calendarofevents.do

Trading Breakdown on the Stock Exchange of Thailand

Daily as of 12 Jun 2020

Unit: M.Baht

Investor Type Buy Sell Net

Value % Value % Value %

Local Institutions 8,750.68 10.2 8,307.45 9.68 443.23 -

Proprietary

Trading

7,527.01 8.77 7,797.48 9.09 -270.47 -

Foreign Investors 24,142.61 28.14 26,142.80 30.47 -2,000.19 -

Local Individuals 45,366.50 52.88 43,539.07 50.75 1,827.42 -

Monthly Cumulative between 1 - 12 Jun 2020

Unit: M.Baht

Investor Type Buy Sell Net

Value % Value % Value %

Local Institutions 80,024.80 9.46 81,466.06 9.63 -1,441.26 -

Proprietary

Trading

78,974.30 9.33 74,626.18 8.82 4,348.12 -

Foreign Investors 269,873.82 31.9 266,064.06 31.45 3,809.76 -

Local Individuals 417,222.65 49.31 423,939.27 50.11 -6,716.62 -

Yearly Cumulative since 1 Jan - 12 Jun 2020

Unit: M.Baht

Investor Type Buy Sell Net

Value % Value % Value %

Local Institutions 889,126.29 11.7 822,981.47 10.83 66,144.83 -

Proprietary

Trading

767,074.97 10.1 765,256.36 10.07 1,818.61 -

Foreign Investors 2,689,009.91 35.39 2,879,129.26 37.89 -

190,119.35

-

Local Individuals 3,252,895.19 42.81 3,130,739.28 41.2 122,155.91 -

Total Trading Value 85,786.80 Million Baht.

Background Information –  

The strength of each party in the Thai Parliament as of May 8, 2019 as per the report by

the Election Commission of Thailand. Elections took place on March 24, 2019

https://www.ect.go.th/ect_th/news_all.php?cid=24

List of MPs - https://www.ect.go.th/ect_th/download/article/article_20190508184334.pdf

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