June 1 July 2, 2012 - Homepage | IRI August 17 Survey of Syrian... · International Republican Institute (IRI) - PechterAdvancing Democracy Worldwide Polls • From June 1-July 2,

Syrian Opposition Survey June 1 – July 2, 2012

http://www.pechterpolls.com/

Survey Methodology

International Republican Institute (IRI) - Advancing Democracy Worldwide Pechter Polls

• From June 1-July 2, 2012, the International Republican Institute (IRI) and Pechter Polls of

Princeton, NJ (P3) surveyed members of the Syrian opposition. P3 provided consultative guidance

on the survey’s implementation and analysis.

• Due to the logistical and political complexities of the project, several months of preparation were

required for both survey development and recruitment of opposition activists who had strong in-

country networks that had not been permeated by the regime.

• To minimize the possibility of participants’ arrest, or any other form of regime interference, IRI and

P3 employed a referral or “snowball” methodology – relying strictly on dissidents who were known

to IRI or P3. Thus the survey is not a randomized sample – as would be seen in a public opinion

poll – and is also skewed heavily toward men, which is partially a reflection of the opposition’s

composition.

• The project primarily relied upon five networks to initiate the survey’s circulation. From there,

activists within and outside of Syria from different ethnic, religious, political and socioeconomic

backgrounds were encouraged to circulate the survey amongst their sub-networks.

• The questionnaire was developed with the input of all network leaders, under the guidance of Dr.

David Pollock, former chief of Near East/South Asia and Africa Research for the U.S. Information

Agency.

• The survey was translated from English into Syrian colloquial Arabic and placed on a secure server

outside of Syria with extensive security protocols to mitigate against regime tampering.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY


• Each of the five trusted network leaders was given an individual link to access the

questionnaire, allowing P3 to track progress and observe any suspicious results in real-time

throughout the survey’s administration.

• Respondents were assured that their responses to the online survey would be anonymous.

• A total of 1,168 interviews were completed by July 2, 2012, 85 percent of respondents were

male and 15 percent were female. Margin of error is not strictly applicable to this survey

because of the non-random selection of respondents.

• Of the sample of 1,168, approximately 315 of the respondents indicated they were inside Syria

when they completed the questionnaire, though there is discrepancy in the survey regarding

this figure as some respondents may have inconsistently reported the place where they live

versus the place where they were when taking the survey.

• Not all respondents answered every question. Therefore, the number of responses for any

question may not total 1,168.

• Figures in charts and tables may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding error.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY

Demographics


Age

1%

18%

36%

25%

20%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Younger than 18 18-25 26-35 36-45 Older than 45


Gender

85%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Male Female


Highest level of education achieved

6%

8%

20%

37%

9%

20%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Some secondary education

Certificate in secondary education

Some university/vocational education

Certificate from university/vocationaleducation

Some post-graduate education

Certificate in post-graduate education


Your normal profession or occupation

13%

5%

1%

8%

14%

18%

11%

12%

2%

4%

13%

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

Other

Unemployed

Retired

Manager

Doctor

Engineer

Merchant

Office worker

Housewife

Laborer

Student


Your ethnic background

81%

14%

<1% 0% 1% <1% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Arab Kurd Assyrian Armenian Turkmen Circassian Other


Your religious background

81%

<1% 0% 3%

1%

11%

4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Sunni Alawite Shia(Not Alawite)

Christian Druze NotReligious

Other


The governorate you consider your home

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

4%

6%

6%

9%

10%

10%

11%

11%

25%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Quneitra Governorate

Al-Raqqah Governorate

Tartus Governorate

Al-Suwayda Governorate

Other

Deir ez-Zor Governorate

Latakia Governorate

Idlib Governorate

Daraa Governorate

Hama Governorate

Rif Dimashq Governorate

Aleppo Governorate

Homs Governorate

Al-Hasakah Governorate

Dimashq Governorate


The place where you now live

12%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

2%

4%

4%

7%

11%

23%

29%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Other

Tunisia

Cyprus

Lebanon

Qatar

Egypt

Jordan

Britain

France

Turkey

Germany

UAE

United States

Saudi Arabia

Syria


If you are now living in Syria, where are you living?

(315 of sample living in Syria)

<1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

5%

6%

7%

11%

12%

13%

32%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

Quneitra Governorate

Al-Raqqah Governorate

Deir ez-Zor Governorate

Al-Suwayda Governorate

Tartus Governorate

Syria (General)

Latakia Governorate

Daraa Governorate

Hama Governorate

Homs Governorate

Idlib Governorate

Aleppo Governorate

Al-Hasakah Governorate

Rif Dimashq Governorate

Dimashq Governorate

International Relations


Thinking of how various foreign countries have treated the Syrian opposition in recent months,

please rank the following countries where seven means the country has treated the Syrian

opposition the best and one means the country has treated the Syrian opposition the worst.

1.17

1.41

1.46

1.53

2.3

3.4

4.21

4.74

4.89

5.1

5.25

5.25

5.33

5.45

5.46

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Iran

Russia

China

Iraq

Lebanon

Jordan

Egypt

Saudi Arabia

The U.S.

Germany

Libya

Britain

Turkey

Qatar

France

Ra

ting

Ave

rag

e


On a seven-point agreement scale where seven means agree strongly and one

disagree strongly, how strongly do you agree with the following ideas about

foreign military intervention in Syria today? An international alliance should …

6.35 6.25 6.25

5.09 4.91

2.63

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Impose a no-flyzone over the

country

Use force toprovide safehumanitarian

corridors and/orsafe zones

Provide fargreater

armaments andtraining to the

Free SyrianArmy

Enter Syria toprotect civilians

Invade Syria tobring down the

Assadgovernment

Not intervenemilitarily

Rating Average


If an international alliance does intervene militarily, which of the following

countries should lead the alliance? Select all that apply.

7%

<1%

1%

1%

15%

27%

34%

36%

40%

41%

41%

54%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Other

China

Russia

Israel

No military intervention

Britain

The U.S.

Qatar

France

NATO

Saudi Arabia

Turkey


If an international alliance does intervene militarily, which of the following

countries should not be involved? Select all that apply.

9%

8%

10%

10%

11%

12%

13%

13%

16%

74%

78%

79%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

Other

Qatar

France

NATO

Saudi Arabia

Britain

Turkey

The U.S.

No military intervention

China

Russia

Israel

Post-Assad Syria


If the Assad regime is no longer in power, would you return to live in Syria?

51%

2%

12% 14%

20%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Yes No Don’t know Temporarily, tohelp rebuild the

country

I'm currentlyinside Syria


After the Assad regime falls, what should be the electoral/government process?

40%

36%

16%

6%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Transitionalgovernment

leading to elections

A constitutional assembly leading to elections – like

Tunisia

Constitution writing after parliamentary

elections – like Egypt

Straight toparliamentaryelections after

Assad fall

Straight topresidential

elections afterAssad fall


Suppose for a moment that the Opposition to the Assad regime could achieve any

objective it wanted to achieve. Please score the options below on a seven point

scale where seven means important and one means not important.

Ra

ting

Ave

rag

e

4.58

4.7

5.39

5.56

5.96

6.31

6.47

6.63

6.71

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Replace the Assad government with people who reflect theethnic and religious identities of Syrians

Unite under existing Syrian National Council (SNC) coalition

Unite under a new opposition umbrella coalition

Build stronger bridges between opponents of the regimeliving in Syria and those living abroad

Build a system of political parties like those found inWestern Europe and North America

Punish the war criminals in the government quickly withoutbeing delayed by judicial processes

Give a fair and proper trial to suspected war criminals

Build a strong economy

Train and appoint a system of judges who can truly beindependent of political or financial pressure and make

decisions that treat people fairly


How important is each of the following in your opinion for helping Syria build a

strong economy? Please score each on a seven point scale where seven means

important and one means not important.

6.1

6.35

6.42

6.55

6.62

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Taking away some money from the military andspending it on roads, clean water, better education

or other ways that make economy stronger

Creating a fair tax system so that all businessesactually have to pay the taxes they owe and

cheating or bribery is no longer an option

A strong role for a properly trained part of government to make sure that businesses don’t

cheat

Creating a strong and fair-minded legal system sothat businesses can have confidence in the

agreements they sign with each other or thegovernment

Increasing the training and education of theaverage Syrian

Ra

ting

Ave

rag

e

The Opposition


How legitimate is the SNC as a body representing Syrians, where seven means the

SNC is legitimate and one means the SNC is not legitimate.

(Number of responses for each response option seven through one)

259

161

222

179

77

63

114

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

7 6 5 4 3 2 1


Please tell me how the Syrian opposition prioritizes the following, using a seven-point

scale where seven means a priority and one not a priority.

Ra

ting

Ave

rag

e

5.23

5.24

5.65

5.77

5.81

5.93

5.93

6.05

6.1

6.15

6.32

6.35

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Planning a democratic security service that collectsinformation on true foreign enemies and does not harm Syrians

Forming a shadow government with individuals preparingthemselves to take over as ministers after the fall of Assad

Addressing issues of transitional justice

Getting assistance from abroad

Building support for the opposition among the Syrian people

Preparing a new constitution

Making sure the opposition is honest and incorruptible

Planning for future political system

Planning for post-conflict economic reconstruction

Identifying war criminals in the Assad regime

Planning for a strong, politically independent, fair-minded legaland judicial system

Providing humanitarian assistance


On a seven point scale where seven means you agree and one means you disagree, to

what extent do you agree with the following opinions?

Ra

ting

Ave

rag

e

4.16

4.54

4.95

4.96

5.12

5.36

5.92

6.11

6.27

6.36

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

The SNC should support a federal model in Syria

The SNC leadership will have strong roles in Syria afterthe end of Assad

The SNC is a legitimate representative of the Syrianpeople

SNC leaders give clear priority to the country’s needs over their own personal gain

The SNC is overly influenced by Qatar and Saudi Arabia

The SNC is overly influenced by Turkey

All Syrian opposition groups should support Kurdishlinguistic and cultural autonomy within a Syrian state

The SNC would be wrong to oppose minority rightsbecause it hurts the prospects of international support

to the Syrian opposition

SNC leadership would be wrong on principle to opposeminority rights

The SNC should support the rights and freedoms ofminorities


Is there any one country with too much influence over the SNC?

3%

0%

0%

0%

0%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

7%

13%

13%

16%

45%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

Other

China

Iraq

Jordan

Germany

Iran

Egypt

Lebanon

Libya

Russia

Britain

France

Saudi Arabia

Qatar

The U.S.

Turkey


In your personal opinion, what opposition group is the most legitimate

representative of the Syrian people?

9%

<1%

1%

2%

2%

2%

3%

12%

14%

23%

34%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Other

Other Kurdish political organizations notaffiliated with the Kurdish National Council

Union for Free Syria Students

Revolutionary Council

Human Rights Organizations

National Coordination Committee

Kurdish National Council

Syrian Revolution General Commission

Local Coordination Committees

Syrian National Council

Free Syrian Army


What opposition group do you affiliate yourself with most strongly?

25%

2%

2%

2%

5%

6%

8%

10%

11%

12%

17%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Other

Revolutionary Council

National Coordination Committee

Other Kurdish political organizations notaffiliated with the Kurdish National Council

Union for Free Syria Students

Kurdish National Council

Human Rights Organizations

Syrian Revolution General Commission

Local Coordination Committees

Syrian National Council

Free Syrian Army

Documents

June 1 July 2, 2012 - Homepage | IRI August 17 Survey of Syrian... · International Republican Institute (IRI) - PechterAdvancing Democracy Worldwide Polls • From June 1-July 2,