JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook 2019 Crop monitoring European … · 2019-06-25 · Note: Sources: Crop Yield (t/ha) Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10000 ha per country;

MARS Bulletin global outlook 2015 -06

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Thermal conditions and water supply have been adequate

in most of Kazakhstan for the emergence and early

growth of spring cereals. Our analysis suggests slightly

above-average yield potential for spring cereals. Winter

wheat (which is mainly confined to southern Kazakhstan)

is generally also in good shape, with an above-average

yield outlook. Some western regions present soil moisture

deficits, with reduced yield expectations for winter wheat.

The sowing of spring crops was completed in the optimal

period, under ideal soil conditions, with satisfactory

emergence in all regions. The development of spring and

winter crops is generally near-average in northern

Kazakhstan, and advanced in the north-west. Soil

moisture levels under spring and winter cereals are

adequate in most of Kazakhstan, but some areas in

Kustanayskaya, Aktyubinskaya and Zapadno-

Kazachstanskaya oblasts present a soil moisture deficit

under winter wheat, which has limited crop growth and

current yield expectations.

Kazakhstan yield forecasts - June 2019 Bulletin

Avg 5yrs 2018 MARS 2019 forecasts %19/5yrs %19/18

winter wheat 1.80 1.77 1.87 +3.7 +5.6spring wheat 1.17 1.20 1.23 +5.7 +2.5winter barley 2.28 2.58 2.59 +14 +0.2spring barley 1.49 1.57 1.61 +8.1 +2.4grain maize 5.65 5.90 6.02 +6.6 +2.0Note:

Sources:

CropYield (t/ha)

Yields are forecast for crops w ith more than 10000 ha per country; f igures are rounded to 10 kg1990-2018 data for area and yields come from Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Committee on Statistics

2019 yields from MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM (CGMS output up to 10/06/2019)

JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook 2019

Crop monitoring European neighbourhood Kazakhstan

June 2019

Timely sowing of spring cereals and favourable rainfall sustain a positive outlook

MARS Bulletin Kazakhstan – June 2019

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Meteorological overview

Prevailing temperatures were slightly lower than average at the end of the review period (1 December 2018 - 10 June

2019) in the north and east, while mainly above-average in southern and western regions. Rainfall was mainly close

to average, with the exception of below-average values in Kustanayskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts, and above-

average values in some areas of the south. Below-average radiation prevailed.

- In the macroregions of North Kazakhstan (Severo-

kazachstanskaya, Akmolinskaya, Kustanayskaya oblasts)

and East Kazakhstan (Pavlodarskaya, Vostochno-

kazachstanskaya and Karagandiskaya oblasts), lower-

than-usual average temperatures generally prevailed

throughout the review period until February. After this,

prevailing temperatures were mainly above-average in

Kustanayskaya and Vostochno-kazachstanskaya oblasts,

and slightly below-average in the other agricultural areas

of the North and East macroregions. Until March, most

cropland was covered by thick snow.

- In the agricultural areas of the macroregions of South

Kazakhstan (Almatinskaya, Jambylskaya, Turkestan and

Kyzylordinskaya oblasts) and Northwest Kazakhstan

(Zapadno-kazachstanskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts),

above-average temperatures prevailed during the review

period, with snow melting from the beginning of March.

- Rainfall was mainly close to average, with the exception

of below-average values in Kustanayskaya and

Aktyubinskaya oblasts. Above-average precipitation was

observed in the South Kazakhstan macroregion,

particularly in Turkestan oblast and mainly concentrated

in March and April.

- Cumulative radiation was below average in all regions

and particularly in the agricultural regions of the South

Kazakhstan macroregion.


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Crop growth conditions

Cumulative NDVI anomalies from 1 May to 10 June show one main anomaly in western areas of the North Kazakhstan

macroregion, related to rainfall deficit. Negative anomalies in the North and East macroregions may be related to the

slightly delayed crop development of spring and winter wheat in these regions.

The map displays the differences between the cumulative NDVI from 1 May to 10 June 2019 and the short-term average (STA, 2013-2018) for the same period.


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Winter and spring cereals

In the North macroregion (the country’s main spring cereal producing region) the timely sowing and adequate soil

conditions ensured good establishment of spring crops. The development of spring crops is generally close to average.

The outlook for spring crops is positive. Model-based indicators suggest an above-average yield potential for winter

cereals, with the exception of some western regions with low soil water levels.

- In the most important spring cereal producing

macroregion, North Kazakhstan (Kustanayskaya, Severo-

kazachstanskaya and Akmolinskaya oblasts), optimal soil

conditions in May allowed early planting of spring crops,

starting from the second dekad of May, and good crop

establishment. Despite the timely sowing, the

development of spring cereals is generally close to the

seasonal average. Winter crops are generally at heading

stage, which is slightly delayed for this time of year.

The replenished soil moisture levels are generally

positive, with lower-than-average values only in

Kustanayskaya oblast. However, so far this year, in all

northern regions, biomass accumulation is close to the

average for winter and spring cereals. Models and remote

sensing indicators show expected senescence during May

for winter cereals in Kustanayskaya oblast. Yield

forecasts are slightly above average for spring cereals,

but estimated slightly below the five-year average for

winter cereals.

- In the East macroregion, conditions of spring crops are

good and generally close to the average. Sowings were

concluded in optimal time, at the beginning of June. The

development stage of spring wheat is varying between

germination and tillering. The development of winter

wheat is slightly delayed in Pavlodarskaya oblast. Yield

forecasts are slightly above average.

- In Northwest Kazakhstan macroregion (Zapadno-

kazachstanskaya and Aktyubinskaya oblasts), the timely

sowing in May and the above-average temperatures

ensured good establishment of spring crops.

Development is generally advanced and at vegetative

stages. Soil moisture contents are generally below

average under both winter and spring wheat. According to

our crop model simulations, leaf area expansion and

biomass production are near average for spring wheat

but below average for winter wheat, with below-average

yield expectations for winter wheat. Yield forecasts are

maintained close to average for spring cereals, but

reduced to below average for winter wheat.

- In the South Kazakhstan macroregion, winter wheat

passed the winter months in excellent condition, starting

re-growth after dormancy in March. Winter crops are

generally close to average, despite the delayed autumn

sowing (abundant precipitation and low temperatures in

October). With respect to winter wheat, in southern

Kazakhstan, the crop was varying between heading in

Almatinskaya and flowering in Turkestan at the end of

May. Simulated crop development and biomass are above

average. Remote sensing indicators also suggest above-

average biomass accumulation; consequently, yield

expectations are slightly above the historical trend.

Sowing of spring grain crops started in early April and was

mainly completed at the beginning of May. Spring wheat

and barley emerged in good condition as early as mid-

April in Kyzylorda and Turkestan regions, reaching tillering

phase in May.

Grain maize in Kazakhstan is generally irrigated. Biomass

accumulation is therefore close to the potential level and

the inter-annual variation of yield indicators is relatively

small. Grain maize crops are currently in the vegetative

phase. Phenological development is generally close to the

average, and the current yield expectation is fair. Yield

forecasts are above average.


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Crop yield forecasts

Kazakhstan yield forecasts - June 2019 Bulletin


winter wheat 1.80 1.77 1.87 +3.7 +5.6spring wheat 1.17 1.20 1.23 +5.7 +2.5winter barley 2.28 2.58 2.59 +14 +0.2spring barley 1.49 1.57 1.61 +8.1 +2.4grain maize 5.65 5.90 6.02 +6.6 +2.0Note:

Sources:

CropYield (t/ha)




Kazakhstan 1.17 1.20 1.23 +5.7 +2.5East Kazakhstan 1.04 1.21 1.16 +12 -3.8North Kazakhstan 1.19 1.21 1.26 +5.3 +3.7

Nothwest Kazakhstan 0.91 0.96 0.91 +0.2 -4.4South Kazakhstan 1.75 1.82 1.76 +0.2 -3.7

Southwest Kazakhstan - - - - -Note: Sources:

Kazakhstan yield forecasts for spring wheat - June 2019 Bulletin

Country

Yield (t/ha)




Kazakhstan 1.49 1.57 1.61 +8.1 +2.4East Kazakhstan 1.15 1.31 1.27 +11 -3.0North Kazakhstan 1.52 1.57 1.61 +5.6 +2.2

Nothwest Kazakhstan 0.87 0.93 0.84 -4.0 -10South Kazakhstan 1.88 2.08 2.26 +20 +8.5



Kazakhstan yield forecasts for spring barley - June 2019 Bulletin

Country

Yield (t/ha)



Kazakhstan 1.80 1.77 1.87 +3.7 +5.6East Kazakhstan 2.02 2.16 2.14 +6.0 -0.9North Kazakhstan - - - - -

Nothwest Kazakhstan 2.00 1.15 1.58 -21 +38South Kazakhstan 1.76 1.83 1.89 +7.1 +3.4

Southwest Kazakhstan - - - - -Note:

Sources:

Kazakhstan yield forecasts for winter wheat - June 2019 Bulletin

Yields are forecast for crops w ith more than 10000 ha per country; f igures are rounded to 10 kg

1990-2018 data for area and yields come from Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan - Committee on Statistics


Country

Yield (t/ha)


Kazakhstan 2.28 2.58 2.59 +14 +0.2East Kazakhstan - - - - -North Kazakhstan - - - - -

Nothwest Kazakhstan - - - - -South Kazakhstan 2.28 2.58 2.59 +14 +0.2


Kazakhstan yield forecasts for winter barley - June 2019 Bulletin

Country

Yield (t/ha)




Kazakhstan 5.65 5.90 6.02 +6.6 +2.0East Kazakhstan - - - - -North Kazakhstan - - - - -

Nothwest Kazakhstan - - - - -South Kazakhstan 5.65 5.90 6.02 +6.6 +2.0




Kazakhstan yield forecasts for grain maize - June 2019 Bulletin

Country

Yield (t/ha)


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The JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook – Crop monitoring European Neighbourhood is a JRC – EC publication from AGRI4CAST (JRC/D5 unit – Directorate of Sustainable Resources)

MARS Bulletins are available under: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu

Analysis and reports S. Bassu, A. Bussay, L. Panarello, L. Nisini

Reporting support Seprotec

Edition S. Bassu, B. Baruth

Data production AGRI4CAST – JRC D5-unit, WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)

Contact JRC–D5 / AGRI4CAST [email protected] MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Legal Notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position.

Technical note: The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as reference is based on an archive of data covering 1975–2018

Mission statement:

As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre’s mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.

https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins

https://agri4cast.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

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JRC MARS Bulletin global outlook 2019 Crop monitoring European … · 2019-06-25 · Note: Sources: Crop Yield (t/ha) Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10000 ha per country;