JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoringin Europe...JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020 3 1.2 Agrometeorological review (1 February – 10 March) Warmer-than-usual conditions

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020

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In most of Europe, the 2019/2020 winter was the

warmest or one of the warmest in our records starting in

1979. In most regions, mean daily temperature exceeded

the long-term-average by 2 °C to 4 °C. Even greater

temperature anomalies prevailed in eastern and northern

Europe. As a consequence of the mild winter, winter crops

in central, eastern and northern Europe are generally

advanced in development and in good condition.

Significant lack of precipitation is observed in the main

durum wheat producing regions (southern Italy, large

parts of Spain, Greece), as well as in large parts of

southern and eastern Romania, northern Bulgaria and in

the Maghreb region. In most of these regions, sufficient

rain is forecast to avoid imminent impact on crop yield

potentials. In contrast, important grain producing regions

in north-western Europe (France, Benelux countries,

Germany, United Kingdom) faced excessively wet

conditions. In these regions, winter crops often did not yet

establish well and necessary field operations were

hampered. Spring crops sowings are also delayed in these

regions and the more settled weather forecast for the

second half of March may not be sufficient to allow field

operations to fully catch up.

At this early stage in the season, the yield forecasts

reported are mostly based on historical trends or average

values.

Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020

forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19

CEREALS* 5.35 5.57 5.47 +2.3 -1.8Total Wheat 5.54 5.79 5.66 +2.1 -2.2

soft wheat 5.77 6.01 5.88 +1.9 -2.1durum wheat 3.50 3.56 3.44 -1.7 -3.4

Winter barley 5.75 6.11 5.91 +2.8 -3.4Rye 3.81 3.87 3.84 +0.7 -0.9Triticale 4.03 4.04 4.14 +2.6 +2.4Rape and turnip rape 3.09 2.98 3.18 +3.0 +6.8Issued: 20 March 2020

* Only w inter cereals are included in the calculation

Crop

Yield t/ha

Content: 1. Agro-meteorological overview 2. Pastures in Europe – Regional monitoring 3. Country analysis 4. Crop yield forecasts 5. Atlas

Covers the period from 1 December 2019 until 10 March 2020

Draft version Issued: 23 March 2020

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol 28 No 3

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe

March 2020

Exceptionally mild winter and start to spring So far beneficial to winter crops in northern, central and eastern Europe


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1 Agrometeorological overview

1.1 Areas of concern

The whole of Europe has experienced milder-than-usual

weather conditions since December, with mean average

temperatures 2°C to 4°C higher than usual in most

regions. However, since the beginning of December, the

strongest temperature anomalies were observed in

northern and eastern regions (the Baltic countries, eastern

Poland, Ukraine, Belarus and European Russia), where

average temperatures have mostly been 4°C to 6°C above

the long-term average (LTA).

Exceptionally dry conditions — rainfall deficit between

50% and 80% compared to the LTA for the period 1

December to 10 March — are observed in the main durum

wheat producing regions in southern Italy, large parts of

Spain, and Greece. Significant lack of precipitation is also

observed in large parts of southern and eastern Romania

and northern Bulgaria, as well as in the Maghreb region. In

most of the above-mentioned regions, the meteorological

forecast anticipates sufficient rain to partially restore soil

moisture levels and avoid impact on crop yield potentials,

but soil water conditions are expected to remain critical in

southern Italy.

By contrast, in north-western Europe, important grain-

producing regions (most of France, the Benelux countries,

a large part of Germany and the United Kingdom) faced

excessively wet conditions. Due to the long-lasting wet

conditions, crops did not establish well, and field works

(e.g. fertiliser applications, phytosanitary treatment, soil

preparations for spring sowing) were hampered. As a

consequence, spring crop sowings are delayed. The more

settled weather forecast for the second half of March may

not be sufficient to allow field operations to fully catch up,

meaning that part of the planned sowing of spring cereals

might not be accomplished.


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1.2 Agrometeorological review (1 February – 10 March) Warmer-than-usual conditions were observed in most

of Europe, with daily mean temperature anomalies from

+2°C to +4°C with respect to the long-term average (LTA),

and from +4°C to +6°C in eastern Europe and large areas

of the Scandinavian Peninsula. Higher mean temperature

anomalies, from +6°C to +8°C, were recorded in European

Russia and in some regions of eastern Europe. In large

areas of southern, western, and central Europe, as well as

in the UK, less than 7 cold days (with daily minimum

temperature below 0°C) were observed. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were

observed in the UK, and in some regions of south-eastern

Europe and Turkey. Daily mean temperature anomalies

were mainly less than 2°C. Normal temperature conditions

were recorded in Scotland and Ireland. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in most

of central, eastern and northern Europe. Cumulative

precipitation anomalies for the review period were above

140% of the LTA in a vast area across France, Germany,

the Benelux countries, Denmark, UK and Ireland. Similar

high anomalies were also recorded locally in other areas

of Europe, e.g. southern parts of Norway, Sweden and

Finland. Drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in most of

the Iberian Peninsula and in the Maghreb region, with

anomalies ranging from -100% to -80% compared to the

LTA. In large regions of Italy and Greece, observed

anomalies of cumulative precipitation were mainly

between -80% and -50% of the LTA. One of the most intense storms, named Dennis, was

observed on 15-16 February (one week after the storm

Ciara) and reached the exceptional minimum air pressure

of 920 hPa.


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1.3 Winter review (December, January, February) Substantially warmer-than-usual conditions

occurred in most of Europe, where the 2019/2020 winter

was the warmest or one of the warmest since 1979

(based on our gridded historical dataset). In most regions,

mean daily temperature anomalies ranged between 2°C

and 4°C above the long-term average (LTA). In eastern and

northern Europe, mean temperature anomalies mainly

ranged from +4°C to +6°C, while anomalies above +6°C

were observed in a large area of European Russia. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were recorded

in most of south-eastern Europe and Turkey, southern

Italy, large areas of the Iberian Peninsula, the UK and Ireland. Remarkable reductions in the number of cold days (i.e. days with daily minimum temperature below 0°C

were reduced by more than 50% compared to the LTA)

were observed in large parts of the Iberian Peninsula,

France and Italy, and in the northern Atlantic, North Sea

and Baltic Sea regions. Drier-than-usual conditions affected some regions in

southern Italy and the western side of the Po Valley,

Greece, Bulgaria and Romania, as well as in most parts of

the Maghreb region. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in large

parts of Europe. In central and eastern Europe, total

precipitation anomalies mainly ranged from 10% to 50%

(locally up to 80%) above the LTA. In northern Europe and

in the UK, precipitation anomalies were mainly between +50% and +80%. Precipitation anomalies above 140% of the LTA were recorded along the Mediterranean

coast of Spain, in an area of north-western Italy, and

locally in the UK, Norway and Turkey. In several of these

regions, the 2019/2020 winter was among the wettest

since 1979 (based on our gridded dataset). Several storms hit Europe between December and

February, causing heavy precipitation, severe wind gusts,

and floods in some of the affected regions. Storm Dennis,

which impacted the UK on 15-16 February, just one week

after Storm Ciara, reached the exceptional minimum air

pressure of 920 hPa..


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1.4 Winter hardening and frost-kill analysis During the past month, the de-hardening of winter cereals

has progressed considerably in most of Europe. Our model

simulations, based on meteorological observations up to

10 March, indicate that winter cereals are not hardened or

only slightly hardened1 in western, southern and central

Europe, as well as in the British Isles, Denmark, southern

Sweden, coastal areas of the Baltic countries, the Balkan

Peninsula, Romania, western Turkey, Ukraine and south-

western Russia. Winter crops still present partial or

advanced hardening in eastern parts of the Baltic

countries, Belarus, and western parts of the Central and

Volga okrugs in European Russia. Full or almost full

hardening is generally being maintained in the

Scandinavian Peninsula (except southern Sweden),

eastern Turkey and large parts of northern and eastern

European Russia.

Our frost-kill model suggests no relevant additional

damage since 1 February.

On the basis of the latest medium-range weather forecast

[until 26 March], no significant further frost kill damage is

expected. A cold air intrusion will lead to an increase in

frost events. However, minimum air temperatures are

expected to remain mostly around or above -6⁰C in the

main agricultural regions, which is insufficient to cause

further frost kill damage to winter cereals.

11 Hardening is a bio-physiological process of winter cereals that occurs when, in response to cold conditions, the crops transform

cellular starch to sugar thus gaining low-temperature tolerance to survive the harsh winter conditions.


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1.5 Weather forecast (20 – 26 March) Weather conditions during the forecast period will be mainly determined by a cold air intrusion induced by a trough

extending from European Russia towards the central Mediterranean. This large-scale atmospheric pattern will evolve

into a stationary cyclonic disturbance centred over Italy in the middle of the week.

Colder-than-usual conditions are expected in a large

region mainly extending from Belgium to Poland, and from

northern Germany to southern Italy. Daily mean

temperature anomalies between -4°C and -2°C with

respect to the LTA are forecast. In central and eastern

Europe, daily minimum temperatures below 0°C are

expected for almost the entire forecast period, with values

that could reach between -6°C and -4°C. Slightly colder-than-usual conditions are forecast in

large parts of France, Spain and England. Daily mean

temperature anomalies between -2°C and -0.5°C are

expected. One to four cold days (with daily minimum

temperatures below 0°C) are forecast in these areas. In

France, minimum temperatures will reach values between

-4°C and -2°C during the analysis period. Dry conditions, with less than 5 mm of cumulative

precipitation, are expected in large regions of Europe,

mainly located along the northern coastline as well as in

the southern part of the UK. Wet conditions, with precipitation of 40 mm to 60 mm

during the forecast period (locally above 60 mm), are

forecast in Portugal, southern Spain and Italy, and in a

large region between Romania and Bulgaria. The long-range weather forecast for April, May and

June indicates that warmer-than-usual conditions are

likely (more likely than not in western Europe) to occur in

most of Europe.


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2 Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring

Advanced start to the season in most of the EU • Higher-than-usual photosynthetic activity and biomass gains are observed in most EU regions, due to a warm and

dry winter that changed to a wet February and early March, especially in northern and western Europe.

• Exceptions are noted for Greece, southern Italy and parts of the central western Iberian Peninsula, where dry

conditions are contributing to a rainfall deficit observed since the start of winter. This may cause concern if rain

does not return by the end of March. For the southern Iberian Peninsula, this is reflected in slightly below-average

biomass cumulates.

Below-average fAPAR values, suggesting below-average biomass accumulation, in the north of Ireland are attributed to

cloud cover (processing bias), as the conditions reported locally have been favourable for biomass growth.


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3 Country headlines

3.1 European Union

France Negative outlook for winter crops

This winter was exceptionally wet and mild, with

cumulative temperatures (T > 0°C) close to those in 2007

and 2016, and above-average rainfall in December,

February and the first half of March, following a rainfall

surplus in October and November.

After an unfavourable start to the season in autumn (dry

soils for sowing and establishment of winter rapeseed;

overly wet for winter wheat), weather conditions during

winter and early spring have also been unfavourable. On

heavy soils, waterlogging caused further delay to the

phenological development of crops, weakened the

development of roots, and lowered biomass accumulation.

The exceptionally abundant rainfall contributed to

substantial nitrogen leaching, thus lowering soil nitrogen

levels. Another negative aspect of the rainy weather is

that it has hampered fertilisation, as well as applications

of pesticide. The wet and mild weather is also favourable

to the spread of pests and diseases. Although it is too

early to notice the presence of diseases and their potential

impacts, high disease pressure is expected this spring.

The sowing of spring cereals, and particularly spring

barley, has also been delayed due to the overly wet

weather. The area sown to spring cereals is likely to

diminish, thus not compensating for the reduced areas of

winter wheat and winter rapeseed. As a consequence, a

relatively large share of arable land area will be sown to

summer crops, such as maize and sunflower.

Germany Mild winter and overly wet February

After a relatively dry December, followed by even drier

conditions in January, concerns arose that the water-

depleted soils will lead to difficult conditions in spring,

when crop water requirements will increase. However, at

the beginning of February the rainfall pattern changed

dramatically, resulting in an overly wet February and

beginning of March. The highest intensity was in the west,

with somewhat lesser amounts of precipitation towards

the east. Consequently, the winter month period (Dec-Jan-

Feb) as a whole presents a precipitation surplus in most

regions. Towards the end of February, the optimal window

for spring sowings starts to open; however, soils will need

to dry first to guarantee field accessibility, so delay is

probable.

With the exception of a few days, average temperatures

fluctuated above the LTA during the review period, and the number of cold days (with Tmin < 0⁰C) has been

exceptionally low. However, the period was cold enough

for vernalisation, although soils did not freeze sufficiently

to lower pest and disease pressure. Crops are generally

advanced, and our yield forecasts are currently based on

historical trends or long-term average values.


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Poland Exceptionally mild winter advanced winter crop development and spring field work

The review period was the warmest in our records (since

1979) in most of the country, with mean daily

temperature anomalies around +3.5°C. Below-average

precipitation in December and January deteriorated soil

water deficits, especially in Lodzkie, Mazowieckie, and

Podlaskie regions; however, abundant rainfall in February

and at the beginning of March improved soil water

conditions, which are now adequate for crop development.

Cumulative radiation was above the LTA.

Generally, winter cereals are in good condition after the

relatively warm winter without prolonged cold spells.

Development of winter crops is advanced compared to an

average year (winter cereals are completing tillering or

entering stem elongation phase, while rapeseed has

started stem elongation). The mild winter and recent rains

have resulted in increased pressure from fungal diseases,

observed in many fields. Spring field work and the sowing

of spring crops began approximately two weeks earlier

than usual (due to warm conditions), and are currently

ongoing.

Ireland Continuous rain delays field activities

Thermal conditions during winter have been slightly

warmer than usual. The most remarkable feature of this

period was the persistent rain, with only a few

interruptions. Rainfall was particularly abundant in

February, which became the second wettest February in

our 40-year records.

Due to the wet soil conditions, the majority of winter

cereals have not yet received the recommended

applications of herbicide and fertiliser. Moreover, in fields

that had already experienced difficulties due to overly wet

conditions around sowing, winter cereals established

poorly, with empty patches. In some areas, replanting will

be needed. Planting of spring cereals started at the

beginning of February, but was halted due to unfavourably

wet soil conditions across the country.

Despite this unfavourable start to the season, good yields

are still possible if conditions improve in the coming

weeks. At this early stage in the season, the forecasts for

all crops are still based on the historical trend, slightly

above the 5-year average.

Spain and Portugal Rainfall deficit

Considering the review period as a whole, rainfall in the

eastern part of the Iberian Peninsula (Aragon, Catalonia,

Comunidad Valenciana and Murcia) was around or above

the LTA, but concentrated in one or a few major storm

events. In terms of water supply for rainfed cropland, this

translates into a deficit as much of the rainfall will have

run off, while also degrading the soil and plant cover. In

north-western regions (e.g. Norte, Galicia, Asturias),

rainfall was abundant and uniformly distributed. In the

remaining part of the Peninsula (see figure Valladolid), a

persistently high rainfall deficit is observed since

December, similar to 2019.

Temperatures have predominantly been warmer than

usual throughout the Peninsula, with the most distinct

thermal anomalies in February.

Winter crops and spring cereals are currently in fair

condition and well advanced in development, due to the

warm winter conditions. High yields are still possible as

rainfall seems to be slowly returning, given the most

recent rain (after 10 March) and forecast rain.

Spain’s accumulated water reserves currently amount to

about 58% of its reservoir capacity, which is 10


10

percentage points lower than the 10-year average

(source: www.embalses.net) and similar to 2019.

Italy Dry winter threats durum wheat yields

In December and January, northern and central Italian

regions experienced average temperature anomalies

between 2°C and 4°C above the LTA. February was even

warmer, with average temperatures anomalies between

+4°C and +6°C. In these regions, the overly wet November

and December was followed by a dry January and

February. Since the beginning of March, beneficial rainfall

has been restoring the soil moisture needed for growth of

winter cereals (mostly soft wheat and winter barley).

In southern regions and Sicilia, winter temperature

anomalies were less pronounced (< 2°C above the LTA)

but the rainfall deficit was much more significant,

especially in the main durum wheat areas (up to 80%

below the LTA in Puglia, Basilicata and Sicilia). There is

already a slowdown in crop biomass accumulation (winter

barley and durum wheat), and rain is urgently needed to

avoid a significant reduction in yield potential.

Hungary Adequate wintering, but increased pest pressure

During our review period (1 December – 10 March), above-

average temperatures dominated, except in January which

presented close-to-average thermal conditions. This

winter season was among the warmest in our records

(since 1979) with a positive thermal anomaly of 3°C

compared to the LTA. A rainy November was followed by

a drier-than-usual December and January, but from early

February rainfall again became more frequent and

abundant. For the review period as a whole, precipitation

totals are close to the LTA in southern and eastern regions,

while central and northern areas present 10-30% surplus.

Mild winter temperatures supported successful wintering

and accelerated crop development but led to increased

pest pressure for this spring.

Soil moisture conditions were adequate during this winter

and the replenishment of soil water reserves is favourable

for the re-growth of winter crops. This is reflected in

above-average leaf area expansion, as confirmed by

remote sensing.

Romania Mild winter, but dry in south-eastern regions

Romania experienced one of the mildest winters on our

records (since 1979). Daily temperatures mostly

fluctuated well above the LTA during the review period (1

December – 10 March), resulting in a positive thermal

anomaly of 2°C to 4.5°C. The most marked temperature

anomalies occurred in the north-eastern and eastern

agricultural regions.

In December and January, the north-western half of

http://www.embalses.net/


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Romania received only 55-85% of the usual precipitation.

Meanwhile, the south-eastern half of the country suffered

from severe precipitation deficit, with only 10-40 mm

(15-50% of the average) recorded. In early February,

abundant rainfall arrived, improving the situation;

however, some eastern areas remain drier than usual. The

soil moisture recharge of lower soil layers has been mostly

suboptimal, but upper soil layers have been sufficiently

moist to meet the water demands of winter crops, except

in Sud-Est region. Winter crops are in seasonal shape; the

dormancy period ended earlier than usual and there is

advanced crop development.

Bulgaria Advanced crop development, but rainfall deficit along the Black Sea coast

Since early December, significantly warmer-than-usual

weather conditions have prevailed in Bulgaria. This has

resulted in a positive thermal anomaly between 1°C and

4.5°C for the period as a whole. In the main agricultural

regions, in northern and eastern parts of the country, the temperature sum (Tbase = 0°C) exceeds the LTA by 200-

330°Cd, which indicates substantially advanced crop

phenology.

After abundant rainfall in November, there was only

scarce precipitation (15-35 mm) in December and

January in northern and eastern Bulgaria (20-50% of the

LTA), making this 2-month period the driest or second

driest in our records (since 1979). The situation improved

in February. However, eastern coastal regions still

experienced below-average rainfall (30-45 mm), while

50-150 mm rainfall was recorded elsewhere (from early

February until mid-March).

As a consequence, soil moisture levels have been

persistently below average in eastern Bulgaria

(Severoiztochen and Yugoiztochen). In these regions, the

replenishment of deeper soil layers has also been

deficient, which means that above-average rainfall will be

required in the coming months to sustain adequate crop

growth this season. Currently, biomass accumulation is

close to or above normal, primarily thanks to the mild

winter temperatures which allowed advanced crop

development.

Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia Mild winter leading to early spring re-growth

The winter has been warmer than usual, with temperature

anomalies mainly between 2⁰C and 4⁰C above the LTA.

Maximum temperatures in December and January often

exceeded 15⁰C. Hardening of winter crops has therefore

been weak during the major part of winter; however, in the

absence of extremely low temperatures, frost kill has been

practically absent. Rainfall cumulates have been above

average in Slovakia, western Czechia and most of Austria;

meanwhile, south-eastern Austria and north-western

Czechia have recorded a precipitation deficit. Warmer-

than-usual weather is promoting early spring re-growth,

which might expose winter crops — and especially fruit

trees — to damaging spring frost events. Mild winter

conditions may contribute to pest and disease outbreaks.

As it is too early in the season to reliably predict final crop

yields, our current forecasts are based on long-term trend

values.


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Denmark and Sweden Positive impact of warm winter weakened by excessive rain

The most striking meteorological features of this review

period are that it was among the warmest recorded in the

JRC MARS database for both Sweden and Denmark, and a

distinct rain surplus due to an episode of abundant, almost

continuous rainfall around mid-February. These high

rainfall levels reinforced a positive rainfall anomaly

observed since last summer, which was particularly

substantial in the western regions of Denmark and

Sweden. From 1 August to 10 March, cumulative rainfall

was 200mm above the LTA in Midtjylland and Västsverige.

In these regions, the rainy weather has been unfavourable

for winter crops. Plant nutrients are leached and high

groundwater levels are hampering the development of

roots due to waterlogging. Conditions are more favourable

in the eastern regions of both countries: cumulative

rainfall was closer to the average, thus allowing winter

crops to benefit from the exceptionally warm winter,

favouring an early regrowth and biomass accumulation.

Spring crops sowings are delayed in the western regions

of both countries, which could eventually result in a

reduction of the area sown to spring barley.

Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Unusually warm winter

This review period (1 December – 10 March) was

characterised by above-average temperatures in all four

countries, especially in Lithuania where the period was the

warmest on our records (for the last 40 years). The highest

deviations from the LTA were recorded in Lithuania in mid-

February (mean daily average temperature 11°C above

the LTA).

Precipitation for the period as a whole was close to

average in most parts of the Baltic countries, but has

exceeded the average since February. In Finland, the

review period as a whole was unusually wet; in some

areas (Etelä-Suomi) the wettest for the last 40 years.

Crops are in good condition following the mild winter.

However, mild temperatures may promote early re-

growth, with an increased risk of frost damage in the

following months. Our current yield forecasts are based

on historical trends and averages. It is still too early for

the sowing of spring crops.

Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg Field operations delayed after warm and wet winter

A relatively wet December and dry January were followed

by the wettest February and beginning of March in our

records (since 1979), resulting in an overall rainfall

surplus of 50-100 mm (compared to the LTA) for the

review period as a whole. Temperatures were almost

constantly above the LTA, similar to 2007, 2014 and

2016. Frost events were mild and sparse. Radiation was


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well below average, due to the cloudy/rainy conditions that

prevailed from the beginning of February.

Winter cereals that were sown on time benefited from the

warm weather and are generally in good condition and

advanced in development. However, crops that were sown

late (due to overly wet autumn conditions) are still lagging

behind and often present gappy stands.

Field operations are well behind, due to the wet soil

conditions. Even with the prospect of more settled weather

in the second half of March, part of the spring cereals may

not be sown within the optimal window and the current

delays could even have knock-on effects on the timing of

sugar beet sowing.

Greece and Cyprus Positive outlook for winter crops in Greece

From December to early March, Greece saw low

precipitation cumulates in central areas (e.g. Grevena,

Karditsa and Phthiotis) and in the region of Peloponnese.

Average to above-average cumulates prevailed in Aegean

and Ionian areas. Rainfall events mainly occurred in the

first half of December and the beginning of March. Temperature cumulates (Tbase = 0°C) have been above

the LTA throughout Greece, particularly in southern

regions. Winter crop growing conditions in Greece were

favoured by the abundant soil water supply during the

autumn season, and by the warm temperatures that

accompanied crop tillering and initial vegetative stages.

Hence, despite the dry winter, remote sensing indicators

clearly show that biomass accumulation levels are above

average and above the previous season. Weather

conditions in Cyprus were mainly characterised by above-

average precipitation and warmer-than-average

temperatures. Crop growth simulations suggest below-

average biomass formation. However, there is still

significant time for crops to recover.

Slovenia and Croatia Exceptionally mild winter advanced winter crop development and spring field work

Both countries have seen mild winter conditions, with

temperatures generally between 2⁰C and 4⁰C above the

seasonal values. Precipitation has been around average in

eastern Slovenia and in the central part of the coastal

region of Croatia. Above-average precipitation was

recorded in western Slovenia and Istria, while a

precipitation deficit prevailed in eastern Croatia and

southern Dalmatia, where recorded cumulates were

regionally between 30% and 50% of the LTA. Although

there was weak hardening of winter cereals, frost kill has

been very limited or absent. However, the early re-growth

of winter crops may expose them to frost risk later in the

spring. The precipitation deficit recorded so far in Croatia

has had a limited effect on winter crops. As it is still too

early in the season to reliably predict crop yields, our

current forecast figures are based on long-term trends.


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3.2 United Kingdom

United Kingdom Excessive rainfall delays field work

This meteorological winter and early spring (1 December

– 10 March) were characterised by above-average

temperatures, particularly in the south-eastern parts of

Great Britain, with the highest deviations from the LTA in

mid-February in the east of England (8°C above the LTA).

Precipitation was also well above average, especially in

western areas, where in many parts cumulative rainfall

over the review period exceeded the LTA by 70%. In

general, the period was one of the wettest on our 40-year

records.

The sowing of spring crops, and other field operations such

as the application of fertilisers and pesticides, have been

delayed. In general, winter cereals came through the

winter in good condition, but some late-sown fields need

to be re-sown with spring crops.

The continuous rain has made it very difficult to make an

early start to the cultivation of spring cereals. Wet soil

conditions have also halted ground preparation for early

potato planting across the country.

As it is still very early in the season, the forecasts for all

crops are based on the historical trend


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3.3 Black Sea Area

Ukraine High yield expectations after an exceptionally mild winter

This winter was the warmest in our database, with mean

average temperatures even well above the last record

(winter 2015/2016). This exceptional weather continued

during the first dekad of March, with temperatures 8°C

above the seasonal average.

Rainfall was close to the LTA in most regions, but a rainfall

deficit was recorded in Odes’ka. The extent of the snow

cover was exceptionally reduced and non-persistent this

winter. Substantial snowfall was only recorded at the

beginning of February, before a short cold snap. The snow

melted quickly during the second half of February, as

temperatures returned to above-seasonal levels.

Winter crops are currently in good condition, have not been

damaged by frost, and started regrowth early. Sowing of

spring cereals has already started in the southern oblasts

and is advancing at a fast pace. The early start to spring

is particularly beneficial for winter and spring crops, and

yield expectations are currently high, as the only negative

observation is slightly low superficial soil moisture in

Odes’ka. Considering the steep increase in fertiliser use

since 2000, yield expectations are high. However, it is

noted that in all the main producing oblasts, the area sown

to winter crops — and more particularly winter wheat —

has decreased by 10-15% compared to last year.

Turkey Delayed crop development in Anatolia

In Anatolian regions (e.g. Konya, Kaysery), sowings of

winter cereals were delayed by up to 30 days due to a dry

autumn. In December, rainfall restored soil moisture,

allowing sowing and grain germination. In January, crop

emergence and first leaf development were slowed down

by winter dormancy, and vernalisation occurred under

below-average temperatures (2°C below the LTA). At the

moment of analysis, crop development has not yet re-

started.

In south-eastern regions, weather conditions during the

winter months proved favourable, with abundant

precipitation and slight positive temperature anomalies (<

2°C above the LTA). Crop growth is fair and biomass

accumulation is now around average (e.g. in Sanliurfa).

Only the Gaziantep region presents a development delay,

due to late sowing as a result of strong rain events at the

beginning of December.


16

3.4 European Russia and Belarus

European Russia Adequate wintering thanks to extremely mild weather

European Russia experienced an unprecedented mild

winter. Daily mean temperatures almost constantly

exceeded the LTA during the review period (1 December –

10 March), resulting in a positive thermal anomaly of 3.0-

8.5°C. A brief cold spell around 10 February was not

harmful to dormant winter crops. The mild temperatures

supported early re-greening of winter cereals in south-

western regions, and the spring sowing campaign could

start 1-2 weeks earlier than usual.

Precipitation persistently exceeded the average in

northern and eastern parts of Russia. In central and south-

western regions, precipitation was below average in

December, around average in January, and above average

in February. Considering the review period as whole, only

areas along the Caucasus (e.g. Stavropolsky kray)

remained drier than usual, with a 20-50% rainfall deficit

compared to the LTA.

Winter cereals experienced successful wintering, thanks to

the adequate soil moisture conditions and mild

temperatures. Slight frost-kill events in late November

may have caused some damage in the Central and Volga

okrugs, but without significantly affecting yield potentials.

Winter cereals are in good shape and crop status is

promising.

Belarus Record high temperatures resulted in advanced development of winter crops

The review period was the warmest on record (since

1979), with mean daily temperature anomalies reaching

+6°C to +8°C in north-eastern regions (of Vitebs and

Mogilev), and +4°C to +6°C in the rest of the country. A

brief cold spell occurred during the first dekad of February,

with no negative impact on winter crops. Cumulative

precipitation was around the LTA for most of the country,

with the exception of north-eastern regions (above the

LTA), and south-eastern regions (below the LTA).

The very mild winter resulted in accelerated development

of winter crops, which are generally in good condition.

However, the mild weather could result in increased

pressure from pests and diseases, especially in areas with

a surplus of precipitation. Field works commenced ahead

of the usual time and are currently in full swing. Sowing

of spring crops is about to begin.


17

3.5 Maghreb

Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia Drought conditions, with crops most vulnerable in central Morocco and western Algeria

In Morocco, persistent dry conditions are observed since

the beginning of December. Drought has been hampering

wheat and barley cultivation since the emergence stage.

The most impacted regions are Marrakech-Safi,

Casablanca-Settat and Oriental. These regions are

currently experiencing dry conditions, after above-average

rainfall cumulates in autumn and a last rainfall event in

the second dekad of January. Remote sensing indicators

confirm low levels of biomass formation. Despite a timely onset of autumn rainfall in Algeria,

winter rain cumulates are in deficit throughout the

country. Agrometeorological conditions are reflected in

differentiated crop growth responses. Western regions

(e.g. Mascara, Sidi Bel Abbes, and Tiaret) are moderately

underperforming in growth, due to less autumn rain and a

lack of rainy events since February. We are monitoring the

situation closely, as western districts are responsible for

almost 45% of soft wheat and 35% of barley production.

Compared with western regions, eastern regions (e.g.

Bouira, Mila, Guelma) received higher rates of rainfall in

autumn and March, and are so far showing above-average

crop productivity. In Tunisia, the interpretation of remote sensing and crop

modelling variables suggests that biomass accumulation

and crop conditions are generally close to or slightly above

long-term levels. The only regions where the effects of

Maghreb’s general drought conditions can be identified

are Siliana and Kairouan, where vegetative growth (in

particular barley) is underperforming with respect to

average values.


18

4 Crop yield forecasts 4.1 EU countries and United Kingdom

Avg 5yrs 2019 MARS 2020 forecasts %20/5yrs %20/19

EU 5.54 5.79 5.66 +2.1 -2.2AT 5.25 4.72 5.17 -1.5 +10BE 8.61 9.94 9.07 +5.3 -8.8BG 4.93 5.14 4.80 -2.6 -6.6CY - - - - -CZ 5.92 5.67 6.04 +1.9 +6.4DE 7.50 7.39 7.65 +2.0 +3.4DK 7.67 8.25 7.52 -2.0 -8.9EE 3.97 5.07 3.88 -2.4 -24ES 3.14 3.04 3.04 -3.0 +0.0FI 3.91 4.56 3.99 +2.2 -12FR 6.99 7.84 7.39 +5.7 -5.8GR 2.62 2.65 2.65 +0.9 -0.3HR 5.54 5.53 5.56 +0.4 +0.6HU 5.28 5.28 5.03 -4.7 -4.8IE 9.84 9.99 9.94 +1.0 -0.5IT 3.96 3.87 3.97 +0.1 +2.6LT 4.48 4.29 4.82 +7.4 +12LU 5.78 6.01 6.10 +5.6 +1.5LV 4.49 4.81 4.59 +2.2 -4.6MT - - - - -NL 9.01 10.01 9.09 +0.9 -9.2PL 4.49 4.39 4.71 +4.9 +7.2PT 2.19 2.23 2.16 -1.7 -3.3RO 4.44 4.80 4.75 +7.0 -1.0SE 6.55 7.40 6.55 +0.0 -12SI 4.99 5.23 5.12 +2.6 -2.0SK 5.26 5.36 5.52 +4.9 +3.0

UK 8.34 8.94 8.10 -2.9 -9.4

Country

TOTAL WHEAT (t/ha)


EU 5.77 6.01 5.88 +1.9 -2.1AT 5.30 4.71 5.22 -1.7 +11BE 8.61 9.94 9.07 +5.3 -8.8BG 4.93 5.14 4.80 -2.6 -6.6CY - - - - -CZ 5.92 5.67 6.04 +1.9 +6.4DE 7.52 7.42 7.67 +2.0 +3.4DK 7.67 8.25 7.52 -2.0 -8.9EE 3.97 5.07 3.88 -2.4 -24ES 3.23 3.09 3.12 -3.4 +0.9FI 3.91 4.56 3.99 +2.2 -12FR 7.11 7.92 7.48 +5.3 -5.5GR 2.70 2.77 2.62 -2.9 -5.3HR 5.54 5.53 5.56 +0.4 +0.6HU 5.29 5.32 5.04 -4.8 -5.3IE 9.84 9.99 9.94 +1.0 -0.5IT 5.41 5.13 5.40 -0.2 +5.3LT 4.48 4.29 4.82 +7.4 +12LU 5.78 6.01 6.10 +5.6 +1.5LV 4.49 4.81 4.59 +2.2 -4.6MT - - - - -NL 9.01 10.01 9.09 +0.9 -9.2PL 4.49 4.39 4.71 +4.9 +7.2PT 2.19 2.23 2.16 -1.7 -3.3RO 4.44 4.80 4.75 +7.0 -1.0SE 6.55 7.40 6.55 +0.0 -12SI 4.99 5.23 5.12 +2.6 -2.0SK 5.34 5.49 5.67 +6.1 +3.3

UK 8.34 8.94 8.10 -2.9 -9.4

Country

SOFT WHEAT (t/ha)


EU 3.50 3.56 3.44 -1.7 -3.4AT 4.58 4.83 4.53 -1.1 -6.1BE - - - - -BG - - - - -CY - - - - -CZ - - - - -DE 5.06 4.92 5.42 +7.0 +10DK - - - - -EE - - - - -ES 2.73 2.76 2.60 -4.6 -5.7FI - - - - -FR 5.29 6.28 5.40 +2.1 -14GR 2.59 2.61 2.66 +2.4 +1.7HR - - - - -HU 4.71 4.34 4.70 -0.3 +8.2IE - - - - -IT 3.37 3.32 3.34 -1.0 +0.6LT - - - - -LU - - - - -LV - - - - -MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL - - - - -PT - - - - -RO - - - - -SE - - - - -SI - - - - -SK 4.53 4.29 4.31 -4.9 +0.5

UK - - - - -

Country

DURUM WHEAT (t/ha)


EU 5.75 6.11 5.91 +2.8 -3.4AT 6.34 6.74 6.38 +0.5 -5.4BE 8.15 9.00 8.95 +9.9 -0.5BG 4.40 4.90 4.63 +5.1 -5.5CY 1.62 2.70 1.41 -13 -48CZ 5.67 5.92 5.56 -1.9 -6.0DE 7.09 7.22 7.19 +1.4 -0.5DK 6.48 7.09 6.30 -2.7 -11EE - - - - -ES 2.41 2.31 2.79 +16 +21FI - - - - -FR 6.54 7.09 6.80 +4.0 -4.2GR 2.60 2.71 2.81 +7.8 +3.7HR 4.79 5.18 4.92 +2.9 -5.0HU 5.28 5.65 5.49 +4.0 -2.8IE 9.25 9.42 9.46 +2.3 +0.4IT 4.00 4.05 4.01 +0.3 -1.0LT 3.90 3.89 3.99 +2.2 +2.6LU - - - - -LV - - - - -MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL 4.26 4.31 4.42 +3.8 +2.5PT 2.39 2.64 2.38 -0.4 -10RO 4.48 4.91 4.72 +5.5 -3.8SE 5.91 6.85 5.99 +1.4 -13SI 4.51 4.20 4.49 -0.5 +7.0SK 5.21 5.32 5.09 -2.4 -4.4

UK 7.16 7.84 7.13 -0.5 -9.1

Country

WINTER BARLEY (t/ha)


19

Notes:

- Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10000 ha

per country with sufficently long and coherent yield

time series

- EU aggregate after 01/02/2020 is reported

Sources:

- 2015-2020 data come from DG AGRICULTURE short

term Outlook data (dated February 2020, received on

02/03/2020), EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update:

25/02/2020) and EES (last update: 15/11/2017)

- 2020 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD

FORECASTING SYSTEM (output up to 10/03/2020)


EU 3.81 3.87 3.84 +0.7 -0.9AT 4.43 4.60 4.68 +5.6 +1.7BE - - - - -BG - - - - -CY - - - - -CZ 4.90 4.96 4.99 +1.7 +0.5DE 5.30 5.24 5.29 -0.1 +1.0DK 5.91 6.19 5.99 +1.4 -3.2EE 3.61 4.12 3.61 -0.2 -13ES 2.10 1.82 2.01 -4.6 +10FI 3.78 4.79 3.69 -2.2 -23FR 4.52 4.77 4.63 +2.5 -3.0GR 1.72 1.86 1.92 +12 +3.0HR - - - - -HU 3.14 3.37 3.33 +6.0 -1.3IE - - - - -IT - - - - -LT 2.51 2.63 2.45 -2.5 -7.0LU - - - - -LV 4.14 4.43 4.02 -3.1 -9.4MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL 2.77 2.72 2.89 +4.2 +6.1PT 0.95 1.06 1.02 +7.6 -3.6RO 2.76 3.08 2.74 -0.7 -11SE 6.17 6.76 6.25 +1.3 -7.5SI - - - - -SK 3.44 3.44 3.59 +4.5 +4

UK 2.22 2.38 2.85 +29 +20

Country

RYE (t/ha)


EU 4.03 4.04 4.14 +2.6 +2.4AT 5.24 4.91 5.38 +2.6 +9.4BE - - - - -BG 2.96 2.84 3.00 +1.4 +5.6CY - - - - -CZ 4.78 4.85 4.60 -3.7 -5.1DE 6.01 6.13 6.15 +2.2 +0.3DK - - - - -EE - - - - -ES 2.35 2.32 2.50 +6.5 +7.8FI - - - - -FR 5.04 5.44 5.27 +4.6 -3.1GR 2.11 2.24 2.36 +12 +5.2HR 3.94 3.98 3.79 -3.6 -4.7HU 3.96 3.96 4.07 +2.6 +2.7IE - - - - -IT - - - - -LT 3.36 3.29 3.19 -5.0 -3.1LU - - - - -LV - - - - -MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL 3.55 3.49 3.68 +3.6 +5.5PT 1.68 1.47 1.54 -7.9 +4.9RO 3.90 4.12 4.01 +2.8 -2.6SE 5.58 6.36 5.54 -0.6 -13SI - - - - -SK 3.64 3.53 3.61 -0.6 +2.3

UK 4.33 4.48 4.24 -2.0 -5.4

Country

TRITICALE (t/ha)


EU 3.09 2.98 3.18 +3.0 +6.8AT 3.08 2.98 3.13 +1.4 +4.9BE - - - - -BG 2.74 2.70 2.79 +2.0 +3.4CY - - - - -CZ 3.26 3.07 3.19 -2.0 +4.0DE 3.39 3.30 3.64 +7.4 +10DK 3.91 4.40 4.12 +5.3 -6.3EE 2.10 2.47 2.18 +3.5 -12ES 2.10 2.13 2.07 -1.8 -3.0FI 1.49 1.28 1.48 -0.8 +15FR 3.33 3.08 3.29 -1.2 +6.7GR - - - - -HR 2.78 2.50 2.81 +1.0 +12HU 3.06 2.90 3.22 +5.3 +11IE - - - - -IT 2.59 2.60 2.72 +4.8 +4.5LT 2.61 2.40 2.59 -0.8 +7.9LU - - - - -LV 2.75 2.94 2.85 +3.7 -3.0MT - - - - -NL - - - - -PL 2.78 2.79 3.00 +8.0 +7.7PT - - - - -RO 2.64 2.37 2.58 -2.2 +8.9SE 3.18 3.62 3.19 +0.4 -12SI - - - - -SK 3.03 2.88 3.19 +5.3 +11

UK 3.55 3.30 3.46 -2.6 +4.8

RAPE AND TURNIP RAPE (t/ha)

Country


20

4.2 Belarus, Maghreb and Black Sea area


BY 3.51 3.83 3.81 +8.5 -0.5DZ 1.57 NA 1.54 -1.8 NAMA 1.99 NA 1.77 -11 NATN 1.77 NA 1.79 +1.0 NATR 2.78 2.78 2.90 +4.3 +4.5UA 4.01 4.16 4.14 +3.2 -0.4

Country

WHEAT (t/ha)


BY 3.08 3.50 3.38 +9.9 -3.4DZ 1.28 NA 1.22 -4.3 NAMA 1.27 NA 1.12 -12 NATN 0.83 NA 0.82 -1.5 NATR 2.70 2.64 2.72 +0.8 +3.1UA 3.19 3.42 3.49 +9.4 +2.0

Country

BARLEY (t/ha)


BY 5.38 5.52 5.52 +2.6 +0.1DZ - - - - -MA - - - - -TN - - - - -TR 9.40 9.40 9.64 +2.5 +2.5UA 6.59 7.19 7.39 +12 +2.7

Country

GRAIN MAIZE (t/ha)


BY - - - - -DZ - - - - -MA - - - - -TN - - - - -TR 4.33 4.25 4.58 +5.7 +7.7UA 2.19 2.29 2.52 +15 +10

Country

SOYBEAN (t/ha)

Note: Sources:

NA = Data not available

2020 yields come from MARS CROP YIELD FORECASTING SYSTEM (output up to 10/03/2020)

Yields are forecast for crops w ith more than 10000 ha per country2015-2019 data come from USDA, DSASI-MADR Algeria , INRA Maroc,CNCT Tunisie,Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), EUROSTAT Eurobase (last update: 25/02/2020),State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD-online


21

5 Atlas

Temperature regime


22

Precipitation


23


24

JRC MARS Bulletins 2020

Date Publication Reference

27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 23 Mar Agromet analysis, yield

forecast, pasture analysis

Vol. 28 No 3

27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing conditions, pasture analysis

Vol. 28 No 4

18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, sowing update, pasture analysis

Vol. 28 No 5

15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, pasture update, rice analysis

Vol. 28 No 6

27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, harvesting conditions, pasture update

Vol. 28 No 7

214 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, yield forecast, pasture update, harvesting update

Vol. 28 No 8

14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, yield forecast, harvesting update

Vol. 28 No 9

26 Oct Agromet analysis, pasture update, sowing conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 10

23 Nov Agromet analysis, harvesting update, sowing update

Vol. 28 No 11

14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12

The current JRC MARS Bulletin — Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 — Directorate for Sustainable Resources)

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins

Analysis and reports B. Baruth, S. Bassu, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, Y. Chemin, P. De Palma, D. Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, M. van der Velde, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini

Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern

Edition M. van den Berg, B. Baruth

Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)

Contact JRC D5 / MARS4CAST [email protected]

Legal notice: Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.

Technical note:

The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.

Documents

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoringin Europe...JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 3 – 23 March 2020 3 1.2 Agrometeorological review (1 February – 10 March) Warmer-than-usual conditions