JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoringin Europe · large parts of Europe, extending from northern and eastern France to the northern Black Sea region, southern part of the Iberian Peninsula,

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 9 – 14 September 2020

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At EU level, the yield forecasts for all summer crops were

revised downwards, most markedly for Romania, Bulgaria,

and Greece.

In south-eastern Europe, severe drought conditions

continued in eastern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, and

southern Ukraine, with further negative impacts mainly on

maize and sunflowers. Drought is now observed also in

north-eastern Greece, the country’s main sunflower

production region; whereas in central Ukraine, a prolonged

precipitation deficit started to impact maize.

In western Europe, following the heatwaves reported in

August, temperatures dropped, but precipitation deficit

continued in large parts of France, Belgium, Luxembourg,

western Germany and southern Netherlands, further

diminishing the yield expectations for summer crops in

these regions (mainly maize, sugar beet and potatoes).

In Ireland and parts of the United Kingdom, frequent and

abundant precipitation since mid-August negatively

affected the ripening and harvesting of spring and winter

cereals.

Favourable conditions prevailed in central and northern

Europe. A surplus of precipitation benefited summer crops

in northern Italy, Austria, Slovakia, Czechia, Poland and

Belarus.

Pre-press version Issued: 14 September 2020

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 28 No 9

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe

September 2020

Severe drought in south-eastern Europe Overall, EU-level yield forecast for summer crops close to 5-year average

Contents: 1. Agrometeorological overview 2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions 3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring 4. Country analysis 5. Crop yield forecasts 6. Atlas

Covers the period from 1 August to 5 September 2020

Avg 5yrs August Bulletin

MARS 2020

forecasts

% Diff 20/5yrs

% Diff August

Spring barley 4.02 4.39 4.38 + 8.9 – 0.2Grain maize 7.58 8.01 7.83 + 3.3 – 2.2Potato 32.4 33.1 32.8 + 1.3 – 1.0Sugar beet 74.5 73.5 73.0 – 2.1 – 0.7Sunflower 2.25 2.39 2.21 – 1.5 – 7.5Soybean 2.94 3.06 3.05 + 3.7 – 0.3Green maize 40.2 40.1 40.0 – 0.4 – 0.1Rice 6.73 — 6.86 + 1.8 —Issued: 11 September 2020

Crop

Yield (t/ha)


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1. Agrometeorological overview

1.1. Areas of concern

The large precipitation deficit and high temperatures that

occurred in the first half of August in large parts of Europe,

were reported in the August issue of the Bulletin and are

not repeated here.

A deficit in precipitation continued in northern- and eastern France, Belgium, Luxembourg, western

Germany and southern Netherlands. Temperatures

remained well above the long-term average (LTA) until 21

August, after which they decreased to average levels. In

those regions, the negative impact on summer crops

(mainly maize, sugar beet and potatoes) continued to

diminish yield expectations, even though most of the

damage had occurred earlier.

In south-eastern Europe, severe drought conditions continued in eastern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, and

southern Ukraine, with further negative impacts, mainly

on maize and sunflowers in Romania and Bulgaria. Drought is now observed also in north-eastern Greece,

the country’s main sunflower production region; whereas in central Ukraine, a prolonged precipitation deficit

started to impact maize yield potentials.

Very high temperatures (> 40°C) occurred in southern Turkey, however with only marginal impacts on irrigated

flowering summer crops. In Ireland and in central and western parts of the United Kingdom, frequent and abundant precipitation since 15

August, negatively affected the ripening and harvesting of

spring and winter cereals.

Favourable conditions prevailed in central and northern

Europe. A favourable precipitation surplus benefited summer crops in northern Italy, Austria, Slovakia,

Czechia, Poland and Belarus.


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1.2. Meteorological review (1 August to 5 September 2020) Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions were

observed in most of Europe, with daily mean temperature

anomalies with respect to the long-term average (LTA) of

0.5°C to 2°C. Warmer-than-usual conditions were observed in a

large region of central Europe, expanding from north-

eastern France to eastern Germany. Recorded daily mean

temperature anomalies with respect to the LTA ranged

from 2°C to 4°C. Severe hot conditions, with daily maximum

temperature above 35°C, were recorded for several days

(3-4 days; more in some areas) in large regions of

western, central and south-eastern Europe. More than 10

severe hot days were observed in large areas of the

Iberian Peninsula, the Mediterranean part of Turkey, and

locally in Italy, Albania, Greece and Bulgaria. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in the

north-western part of the Iberian Peninsula, the United

Kingdom and Ireland, a large region stretching from

central Italy towards north-eastern Poland, and in south-

eastern Europe. Anomalies in cumulative precipitation

were mainly 50% to 80% above the LTA. However, locally

in Italy and in a large region across Serbia, North

Macedonia and Greece, values above 140% of the LTA

were recorded. During the analysis period, many large hail

and heavy precipitation events were reported, together

with thunderstorms and severe windstorms. Storm Ellen

also hit Ireland and the UK. Drier-than-usual conditions were observed in large

regions of the Iberian Peninsula, France, the Scandinavian

Peninsula and Finland, Ukraine and south-western

European Russia, and Turkey. In all these areas, no or only

a few days with total precipitation above 5 mm were

recorded.


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1.3. Summer review (June, July, August) A warmer-than-usual summer has been experienced in

large parts of Europe, extending from northern and

eastern France to the northern Black Sea region, southern

part of the Iberian Peninsula, northern Scandinavia, central

part of Turkey and north-western Maghreb. These regions

have mainly experienced temperatures between 1⁰C and

2⁰C above the seasonal values. The number of hot days

with maximum temperature above 30⁰C exceeded the

seasonal values by 5 to 10 days in most of France, the

Benelux countries, southern United Kingdom and northern

Germany, as well as eastern Croatia and southern

Hungary; and by more than 15 days in the southern part

of European Russia, eastern Ukraine, eastern Romania,

eastern Bulgaria, western Turkey and western

Mediterranean regions. The number of hot days was below

the seasonal average in most other parts of central

Europe, western Romania, western Bulgaria, and the

northern part of European Russia. Maximum daily temperatures up to 40⁰C were

recorded in a large part of France and the northern part of

the Iberian Peninsula. The highest temperatures – locally

exceeding 42⁰C – were measured in the southern Iberian

Peninsula and southern parts of European Russia.

Maximum temperatures up to 38⁰C were recorded in

eastern Romania, eastern Bulgaria, Albania, Greece, North

Macedonia, eastern Ukraine, and regionally in Germany

and the Benelux countries. In other parts of Europe,

maximum temperatures did not exceed 36⁰C. It is

noteworthy that the maximum temperature recorded in

the southern UK reached towards 36⁰C. Substantially drier-than-usual conditions, with less

than half the seasonal rainfall, were observed in the

south-western part of the Iberian Peninsula, and

regionally in southern parts of European Russia. Summer

rainfall cumulates in these regions did not exceed 10 mm.

Substantially drier-than-usual conditions were also

recorded in eastern Ukraine, eastern Bulgaria, eastern

Romania, western Germany and the northern half of

France. Summer rainfall cumulates generally remained

below 100 mm in northern France, and below 80 mm in

eastern Ukraine. Abundant rainfall – with cumulates more than 150% of

the seasonal values – were recorded in northern Italy, the

western Balkan region, several other parts of central

Europe, and a large part of the British Isles. Rainfall

cumulates in these regions exceeded 200 mm (regionally

near mountain chains even 300 mm).

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1.4. Weather forecast (12-18 September 2020)

Weather conditions during the forecast period will be mainly determined by a cyclonic disturbance developing over the

North Atlantic and moving towards the western Mediterranean, associated with a large scale atmospheric pattern over

the rest of Europe, favouring warmer-than-usual conditions and some atmospheric instabilities..

Warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast in Europe,

except for large areas of the Iberian Peninsula. Daily mean

temperature anomalies with respect to the LTA are

expected to be mainly from 2°C to 6°C. Dry conditions, with less than 5 mm of cumulative

precipitation, are expected in most of eastern and south-

eastern Europe. Significant rainfall, with cumulative precipitation of 5 mm to 20 mm (20 mm to 80 mm locally and in

mountainous areas) is forecast in western and central Europe. Values between 20 mm and 40 mm are

forecast in Scotland and the Scandinavian Peninsula. In Finland, higher total precipitation values from 40 mm to 80 mm are expected over a large region.

The long-range weather forecast for September,

October and November points to likely to occur warmer-

than-usual conditions in most of Europe..


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2. Remote sensing – observed canopy conditions

Drought affects summer crops in France and Black Sea regions

The map displays the differences between the fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (fAPAR) cumulated from 1 August to 31 August 2020, and the medium-term average (MTA, 2010-2019) for the same period. Positive anomalies (in green) reflect above-average canopy density or advanced crop development, while negative anomalies (in red) reflect below-average biomass accumulation or late crop development. Regions with no information due to persistent cloud coverage between 20 and 31 August are highlighted in blue.

The map above predominately displays summer crop conditions, as the winter crop season has finished with the

exception of the most northern countries. Very prominent now is the negative anomaly in the Black Sea region, including

eastern Romania and Bulgaria. Here, crops are affected by a persistent dry spell since the end of June. Dry and hot

conditions are also the cause of the negative biomass accumulation in France, while positive anomalies are evident in

Italy, Poland and Hungary. In northern Italy (e.g. Lombardia), favourable biomass accumulation is observed. After a prolonged grain-filling stage,

summer crops reached maturity towards the end of August under colder and wetter-than-usual conditions. Yield expectations are high, but could be locally compromised by hailstorms during the last dekad of August. In France, the

heatwave in the first half of August and the widespread precipitation deficit led to fast senescence in most regions (e.g.

Pays de la Loire). In eastern France, including Picardie, Champagne-Ardenne and Lorraine, the fAPAR signal is noisy due to cloud coverage and as a result assessments are unreliable. In the central and northern regions of the United Kingdom (e.g. Lincolnshire), the fAPAR profile still shows a positive anomaly with respect to the average, as a result of

later-than-usual crop maturity and recovery of green vegetation thanks to the rain in August. In northern and southern Germany, sufficient rainfall during August led to increased biomass growth but some areas of concern remain,

especially on light soils. In central Germany, conditions of summer crops are uneven and generally less favourable. In Poland, the main map shows positive anomalies (green shades) as a consequence of delayed development of crops,

which recovered well from the spring drought thanks to an adequate supply of water during summer. Similarly, positive


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anomalies are observed in Finland (e.g. Etelä-Suomi) and in the Baltic countries. In central Europe – Slovakia, Czechia and Austria (e.g. Niederösterreich) – a favourable summer crop season is drawing to a close, characterised

by surplus precipitation that supported crop biomass accumulation. In Hungary (e.g. Észak-Alföld), as well as in western Romania, precipitation was average and temperature remained slightly above average, favouring very positive biomass

accumulation for summer crops. In southern and eastern Romania and Bulgaria, it has hardly rained since the end

of June, while maximum temperatures surpassed 30°C during most of August. Summer crops, which were already

suffering from drought stress in late July, further accelerated grain filling. As a result, yield formation was strongly

negatively affected (e.g. Severoiztochen). The spatial extension of the drought impact has increased since the last

Bulletin, now also involving the southern provinces of Sveren Tsentralen (BG) and Sud-Muntenia (RO). In central and western Ukraine, the lack of precipitation registered in August has slowed crop biomass accumulation, even though the

fAPAR profiles remain in line with or slightly above the average (e.g. Vinnyts’ka). In southern Ukraine, drought conditions

continue.


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3. Pastures in Europe – regional monitoring

Strong contrasts in pasture conditions; large regions in western and south-eastern

Europe under stress

The pasture productivity index (PPI)1 for the period 21 July to 31 August 2020 is shown on the map above.

It is noted that, in large parts of northern Europe (as indicated by the oval form in the PPI map), cloud conditions during

a significant part of the review period – particularly during the last dekad – may have caused distortions to the fAPAR2

signal, often reflected as discontinuities (e.g. abrupt drops) in the fAPAR graphs, resulting in underestimated PPI values. This situation applies to large areas relevant for pastures in the Baltic countries, Finland, Sweden, Poland, Denmark,

northern Germany, the Benelux countries, north-western France and Ireland. For the review period, the condition of pastures in most of Europe has been average or above average, as indicated by

average or above-average fAPAR, and reflected in neutral or positive PPI values. Favourable conditions prevailed in Greece, Italy, Austria, Czechia, Slovakia, Finland, Baltic countries, Hungary, Ireland, Poland (except in the west), central and southern Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Spain, Portugal and Denmark.

1 PPI, the relative index of pasture productivity is an indicator of biomass formation, based on the integration of the fAPAR remote sensing product of pasture areas (at NUTS3 level) over a period of interest. The index shows the relative position of the current season within the historical series from 2010 to 2019. 2 fAPAR: fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation. The photosynthetically active radiation is 48% of the incoming solar radiation.


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A substantial rain deficit is observed for the analysis period in Sweden. However, given that a rainfall surplus was

observed before the start of the current analysis period, the biomass accumulation of pastures is around average. Conditions remain of definite concern in eastern Romania and eastern Bulgaria. Dry conditions before and during the

analysis period negatively impacted pastures, especially in the south-eastern regions of Romania and the eastern half

of Bulgaria. In western regions of Bulgaria and Romania, pasture productivity is above average, due to adequate

rainfall. The condition of pastures in France is highly heterogenous. The north-east and east of France was in general worst

hit by warm and dry weather, compared with other areas of France. Pasture areas in Champagne-Ardenne were the

most impacted by heatwaves and dry weather. Adequate rainfall permitted good biomass formation in the Alps,

Aquitaine and a large part of the Massif Central. Other southern regions are showing a rain deficit, with accompanied

reduction in biomass accumulation. In northern Germany and western Poland, pasture productivity is expected to have been below average, as recent high

temperatures combined with below-average rainfall reduced biomass accumulation. Central Germany has also

witnessed dry and hot conditions, but conditions in alpine piedmont regions have been more favourable. Similar hot and dry conditions to adjacent areas in Germany and France were experienced in southern inland parts of

the Benelux region. Since about 20 August, weather conditions have been favourable in the region (mild temperatures,

significant rainfall), but rainfall has not been sufficient to improve soil moisture levels below the top layer.


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4. Country analysis

4.1. European Union a 1

France Dry conditions reinforced by a heatwave lowered yield expectations

Weather conditions since the beginning of August tended

to reinforce the impacts of the dry conditions already

observed since the beginning of July. Yield expectations

for summer crops are close to the levels of 2019 and

2018; this is thus the third year in a row with dry

conditions reducing expectations for summer crop yields.

For the current analysis period, cumulative rainfall was

close to the long-term average (LTA) in western regions:

Atlantic and Channel coast, and south of Massif Central.

Substantially drier-than-usual conditions were observed in

Champagne-Ardenne (-80% compared with the LTA),

Lorraine (-60%) and Bourgogne (-60%). More modest rain

deficits were observed in most of Centre and Picardie. An

exceptional heatwave was observed in the first half of

August, resulting in temperatures 2°C above LTA for the

review period. At country level, the period from 1 July to 5

September, this year shows the second highest water

deficit since 1979.

Crop conditions show large spatial variation. Rainfall since

mid-March has often been in storms, thus leading to a

spatially heterogeneous distribution of rainfall, explaining

partly the contrasting conditions of crops. Yield forecasts

are close to the 2018 and 2019 yields for green maize,

grain maize, soybean, potatoes and sugar beet. For those

last two crops, there is a large uncertainty due to the

substantial shifts in the cultivated areas this year, which

will contribute to a variation of the share of irrigated

fields. Sugar beet has been exposed to yellowing, thus

adding to the uncertainty on the yield forecast. Sunflower

yield is expected to be only slightly below the 5-year

average, given that sunflowers are more drought tolerant.

Winter rapeseed sowing has been hampered due to dry

top soils. Sowing is already delayed and the area sown to

rapeseed is expected to be similar to (or even lower than)

the rapeseed areas in 2018 and 2019.


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Germany Summer crops are not faring too well

Rainfall in August and September was not sufficient to

significantly improve soil moisture conditions for summer

crops in western and central Germany. Grain maize

forecast has been slightly lowered compared with the

August Bulletin; no changes for potatoes and sugar beet.

Summer crop yield forecasts are mediocre but above last

years’ yields.

August was on average warmer than usual across

Germany, mostly triggered by short but intense heatwaves

alternating with sharp temperature drops in the south,

whereas the north was characterised by a longer warm

period between 6 and 21 August. Rainfall cumulates

during the review period were unequally distributed and exhibit a clear surplus in most of Baden-Württemberg and

Bayern, as well as Thüringen and Sachsen, mostly caused

by substantial rainfall events towards the end of August.

Less rain than usual was recorded in Rheinland-Pfalz,

Saarland and Nordrhein-Westfalen, aggravating the dry

conditions. The remaining regions, such as Niedersachsen

and Hessen, show more balanced precipitation amounts,

but with strong local variability. The three summer months

combined (June-July-August) only show a clear rainfall

surplus in Sachsen and small surpluses in Bayern and Baden-Württemberg, whereas for most of Germany it was

the third consecutive dry summer. The number of rainy

days during the review period was mostly around or below

average, and no particular harvest problems affecting

winter and spring cereals are reported. Rainfall amounts

were deemed satisfactory for rapeseed sowing and

currently winter barley sowing is taking place. Summer

crops in the regions affected by dry conditions continue to

be stressed, and simulated biomass continues to be below

average, whereas some biomass gains (for instance for

maize) are shown in the south and south-east due to the

better growing conditions. Nevertheless, grain maize

forecasts have been slightly lowered compared with the

last Bulletin, although they remain above the 2019 yield.

Potato and sugar beet forecasts remain at the same

mediocre level as in the August Bulletin.


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Poland Fair conditions for summer crops

Soil moisture conditions were adequate in most parts of

Poland, with the exception of the north-west

(Zachodniopomorskie, Wielkopolskie, Lubuskie) and

Pomorskie regions, where dry conditions prevailed.

Potatoes and maize are on track for average-to-good

yields, while sugar beet is expected to produce below-

average yields

The analysis period was characterised by temperatures of

0-2°C above the long term average. Cumulative

precipitation was above average, with the exception of the

north-west and south-east regions (around the average),

and the Pomorskie region (significantly below average).

Soil moisture conditions were generally adequate for

summer crops, with the exception of the north-west

(Zachodniopomorskie, Wielkopolskie, Lubuskie) and

Pomorskie regions, where dry conditions prevailed.

Agrometeorological conditions were generally satisfactory

for yield formation of grain maize, except for the dry

regions. In most other regions, our crop model indicates

approximately normal development and good (near- or

above-average) yield formation for grain maize. The

harvesting of green maize has already started. Potatoes

and sugar beet have benefited from favourable

temperatures and fair soil moisture conditions. However,

recent rains have resulted in increased fungal disease

pressure on sugar beet. The potato harvest campaign has

started and satisfactory results have been reported.

Most of the winter rapeseed sowing has been completed

within the optimal time window. However, some delays

may have occurred due to either overly dry conditions

(north-west regions) or wet conditions (south regions).

Field work is currently ongoing in preparation for the

sowing of winter barley.

Our yield expectations for sugar beet remain below the 5-

year average. We maintain our positive yield expectations

for grain maize and a near-average yield outlook for

potatoes..


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Ireland Yield losses during difficult harvest across the country

Heavy rainfall and storms hampered harvest and caused

cereal yield losses across the country. Warmer

temperatures increased disease pressure. Cereal yield

forecasts were revised downwards due to the adverse

weather conditions during harvest.

The review period was characterised by above-average

temperatures, except for a few colder days at the

beginning and at the end of August. Rainfall distribution

was variable, with close-to-average precipitation during

the first two weeks of August, followed by heavy rainfall

events until the end of August. In early September, rainfall

returned to average levels in the south but continued to

be well above average in the northern areas. Cumulative

radiation was in general well below average, and slightly

lower than average in the northern areas.

Harvest progress was hampered by heavy rainfall and

storms that deteriorated conditions for cereal crops. The

rain caused lodging and loss of ears and grains, and also

increased the spread of fusarium. Yield expectations vary

across the country but are generally lower in the north-

east, which was most affected by dry conditions during

the growing season. Also, most of the winter cereals here

were replaced by spring crops after the wet autumn.

Importantly, the heavy rainfall and storms of the second

half of August particularly hit the southern areas that had

indicated the highest yield prospects. The improved

weather conditions in the last days of August and early

September allowed the harvest to progress significantly.

Although there is around two weeks of delay, up to 80%

of the harvest has been completed. Despite the wet soil

conditions and the heavy rains, winter rapeseed sowings

have started across the country. Yield forecasts for winter

cereals were revised further downwards (wheat by 7.6%

to 8.9 t/ha and winter barley by 3.4% to 8.8 t/ha), due to

the adverse harvest conditions.


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Spain and Portugal Favourable conditions overall

Fair weather in summer sustains positive yield outlook in

the north and average yield expectations in the south of

the Iberian Peninsula.

The northern part of the Iberian Peninsula received

average levels of rainfall during the review period. The

southern regions have hardly seen any effective rainfall

since June, although temperatures remained lower than

last year. Locally, some water stress occurred, but overall

no excessive situation was observed.

The overall water reserves in Spain are reported to be at

half capacity (source: www.embalses.net). While this is still

below the 10-year average, it is a better situation than in

2019. Reservoir filling within the catchment areas for the

main rivers, such as the Ebro, Tajo and Duero, is around or

above average. In Extremadura, however, reservoirs in the

Guadiana basin are lower than in the past three years, now

reaching worryingly low levels. Similar conditions are

found for reservoir storage around the Tinto, Odiel and

Piedras rivers in Andalucia.

The yield outlook is average and remains unchanged for

potatoes and sugar beet in Spain, and above average for

potatoes in Portugal. The maize yield forecast in Portugal

is above average and unchanged, but lower than last year.

In Spain, maize yield is forecast above the 5-year average

and above last year, with early senescence in Castilla La

Mancha and Alentejo, while maize in Castilla y Leon is

developing at an average rate according to our models.

For sunflowers, which are usually not irrigated, the yield

outlook remains unchanged and slightly above average,

due to the fair rainfall conditions in the northern Iberian

Peninsula which increased the potential of the crop.

http://www.embalses.net/


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Italy Positive yield expectations for summer crops

The season for summer crops is proceeding favourably and yield

expectations are positive. In Piemonte and Lombardia, harvest

started early at the end of August. Forecasts are confirmed

above the average for green and grain maize, sunflowers and

soybean.

In Italy, favourable weather conditions were recorded in

August and early September. In most of the northern and

central regions, average temperature in August was

slightly above the average (+1°C), with the exception of

Lazio and Toscana (+2°C). Precipitation was generally

abundant, although unevenly distributed. Rainfall was

concentrated at the beginning of August and at the end of

August/beginning of September, causing local flash

floods, notably in Veneto.

Since June, a highly favourable season has developed for

maize in the north-western regions. In early August, a

heatwave of moderate intensity caused minor stress to

flowering and early grain filling. The temperature stress

and/or soil water deficit was generally mitigated by

rainfall that always fell at the right moment and which

totalled over 140 mm during the analysis period. This

resulted in very favourable biomass accumulation, with

generally advanced crop stages (e.g. Mantova fAPAR

profile).

In north-eastern regions, abundant precipitation benefited

summer crops, which maintained optimal biomass

accumulation in August, well above the average (e.g.

Ferrara fAPAR profile). The late sowings caused a delay

which was only marginally recovered. This caused some

concern, mostly for the later growing stages and harvest

of soybean, which may occur under unfavourable weather

in late September.

In central Italy, little rain fell between 7 and 25 August.

Sunflowers did not suffer too much from these conditions

and reached maturity on time or slightly earlier than

expected. The rainfall around 20 August delayed the

harvest campaign until the first week of September.


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Hungary High yield expectations for summer crops

Beneficial rain maintained soil moisture at above-average

levels, providing favourable water supply conditions for

high biomass accumulation and storage organ formation.

The yield forecast for grain maize was revised further

upwards. Other summer crops are also in good shape, with

a positive yield outlook.

Daily temperatures in August fluctuated moderately (by

1.5-2.5°C) but were almost persistently above the LTA.

The last days of August were extremely hot; the warmest

spell of this summer. Early September brought colder-

than-usual weather conditions.

Precipitation during the review period (1 August to 5

September) reached 50-150 mm, exceeding the LTA by

30-100% in the western and central areas. Rainfall was

mostly in the form of intense storms, often accompanied

by hail, locally causing inundations. In contrast, the

eastern regions close to the Romanian border received

near- or below-average rainfall (25-50 mm).

Soil moisture content under summer crops typically

exceeded the average and decreased to seasonal level

only in the first dekad of September.

Warm weather conditions accelerated crop development,

thus slightly shortening the grain-filling period for maize

and sunflower crops. Summer crops presented well above-

average leaf area for most of this summer, but since late

August rapid senescence has started and leaf area has

decreased sharply. However, any negative effects of the

early ripening on biomass accumulation and yield

formation are outweighed by the positive effects of the

abundant water supply during most of the season, and

biomass accumulation is high for most crops. In some

areas, excessively wet conditions had negative impacts on

yield potentials, especially for sunflowers, which prefer

drier conditions and can suffer from more plant disease

during wet weather. On balance, the yield forecast was

increased for grain maize and maintained at a high level

for sunflowers and other summer crops.

The recent rains may have caused some delay to the

sowing campaign for rapeseed, but at the same time

beneficially increased topsoil moisture, which is crucial for

emergence and early growth.


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Romania Drought compromised yield formation

Hot and dry conditions in the eastern and southern main

crop-producing regions of Romania negatively affected

the yield formation of grain maize and sunflowers. Fair

crop conditions prevailed in the western side of Romania

thanks to beneficial rain. On balance, our yield forecasts

were revised downwards.

Daily temperatures fluctuated above the LTA for most of

the review period, resulting in 0.5-2.5°C positive thermal

anomaly. Particularly hot weather prevailed in the south-

ern and eastern areas, where maximum temperatures

reached 36-39°C during the warmest days, and the number of hot days (Tmax > 30°C) in the main cropland

regions (20-30 days) exceeded the LTA by 7-17 days.

Western, northern and central areas presented much

milder (slightly warmer-than-usual) conditions.

In eastern Romania, rainfall remained scarce (< 20 mm)

in August. Precipitation in the first days of September was

more substantial (10-40 mm) in these areas, but came

too late for summer crops. Central and north-western

Romania also experienced dry weather conditions in the

first half of August, but rainfall increased from mid-

August, resulting in more modest precipitation deficits (5-

40% below the LTA) for the review period as a whole.

Some spots of Vest region received above-average rain.

The hot weather adversely accelerated the phenological

development of summer crops, by shortening the period

of yield formation, resulting in an early start to the

harvest, particularly in the eastern areas. Moreover, in the

southern and eastern regions, the severe and long-lasting

drought caused serious water supply problems during

August, with additional negative impacts on yield

formation. Satellite images suggest that, despite available

infrastructure 3 , irrigation has only been applied to a

limited extent. The central and western parts of Romania

experienced much more favourable conditions for high

biomass accumulation. Our yield forecasts for all summer

crops were revised downwards, most markedly for maize,

sunflowers and sugar beet as the most important

cultivation areas for these crops are those most affected

by the adverse weather. It is noted that the strong contrast

between the eastern and western regions adds

considerable uncertainty to the forecasts. Moreover, part

of the grain maize might be reallocated as green maize.

3 www.profit.ro/povesti-cu-profit/agribusiness/agentia-nationala-de-imbunatatiri-funciare-s-au-irigat-peste-1-milion-de-hectare-in-acest-an-19452297

http://www.profit.ro/povesti-cu-profit/agribusiness/agentia-nationala-de-imbunatatiri-funciare-s-au-irigat-peste-1-milion-de-hectare-in-acest-an-19452297




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Bulgaria Persistent hot and dry weather reduced yield potential in eastern Bulgaria

Low precipitation and high temperatures resulted in

accelerated crop development, early leaf senescence and

reduced biomass accumulation in the eastern regions. The

situation is better in the areas along the western border.

Our yield forecasts for maize and sunflowers were revised

downwards to below the 5-year average.

In the eastern half of Bulgaria, where prevailing

temperatures exceeded the LTA by 1.5-3.0°C, this review

period (1 August to 5 September) was the hottest or one

of the hottest in our agro-climatological archive (since

1979). In the western regions, the positive thermal

anomaly was more modest and mostly remained in the

range of 0.5-1.5°C. The number of hot days (Tmax > 30°C) exceeded the LTA by 5-15 days, with the

only exception of the near-seasonal Yugozapaden region.

Rainfall also presented duality. In eastern Bulgaria, the

scarce rainfall conditions of July persisted in August, when

only 5-30 mm was recorded. This was followed in early

September by more abundant rainfall (10-40 mm), but

belatedly in Severoiztochen and Severen Tsentralen. In

contrast, the western regions of Severozapaden and

Yugozapaden received near- or above-average

precipitation (40-90 mm) during the review period.

Development of summer crops accelerated strongly,

shortening the yield formation period, particularly in the

eastern areas. Soil moisture levels decreased to critical

levels in these regions, and in early August rapid

senescence of leaves lowered the photosynthetic capacity

for grain filling, thus compromising yield formation.

Satellite images also confirm that crops in eastern

Bulgaria are mostly in poor condition. In contrast, along

the western border, soil moisture levels reached near- or

above-average values and crops are in good shape. On

balance, our yield forecasts for both grain maize and

sunflowers were revised further downwards, but are still

in line with the historical trend and exceed the 5-year

average. The sowing of rapeseed is likely to be delayed in

the eastern territories due to dry topsoil conditions.


22

Austria, Czechia, and Slovakia Summer crop yield outlook remains positive

The weather during the analysis period has been generally

favourable for summer crops, so crop yield outlook

remains positive.

The analysis period was warmer than usual, with

temperatures between 1⁰C and 2⁰C above the LTA. Two

mild heatwaves occurred during this period: the first one

between 7 and 13 August, and a shorter second one

around 20 August. However, maximum temperatures

recorded during the heatwaves reached only regionally up

to 36⁰C. At the same time, above-average rainfall was

recorded in Austria, eastern Czechia and western Slovakia.

Rainfall cumulates in the major crop-producing areas

mainly reached above 80 mm.

Due to the warmer-than-average summer, crops are in a

slightly advanced development stage. Grain maize is

generally in good condition and fast approaching maturity.

Mild drought stress has been experienced in north-western

Czechia as well as western Slovakia, mainly due to a soil

moisture deficit accumulated since the beginning of the

summer. Nevertheless, recent rainfall slightly alleviated

drought stress in these regions. Due to generally

favourable weather conditions elsewhere, our crop yield

forecast for summer crops remains positive and largely

unchanged from the August issue of the Bulletin.

Denmark and Sweden Continued fair yield outlook

While a rain deficit was observed in most of Sweden

during the analysis period, the current season has been

favourable for most crops. The positive yield outlook is

maintained and the dry weather in Sweden is not expected

to have had any negative impacts on yields.

Over the current analysis period, a substantial rain deficit

was observed in most of Sweden except for the

southernmost regions. Denmark received cumulative

rainfall close to seasonal values. Most of the rainfall came

during the second half of August, while no substantial

rainfall was observed during the first half of the month.

Temperatures have been above the seasonal average for

most of August; however, even though the analysis period

was one of the warmest since 1979, average maximum

daily temperatures remained well below the exceptional

levels of 1997 and 2002.

The dry weather in Sweden was beneficial for the harvest

of winter and spring crops, while some delay was

experienced in Denmark due to the substantial rainfall

observed since the end of August. The same rainfall has

been beneficial for the start to the next cropping season,

in particular for rapeseed.

The yield forecasts for winter crops and spring cereals

remain unchanged compared to last month, with yield

expectations close to last year; they are only slightly lower

due to the dry conditions observed in early spring. The

yield outlook for sugar beet and potatoes is also positive,

as most of the cropping season has been beneficial and

rainfall ensured sufficient water supply. Even in Sweden,

the 20 mm of rainfall currently forecast for the coming

10 days will, if confirmed, keep soil moisture at a

sufficient level to end the cropping season.


23

Finland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia Harvest nearly completed in Baltic countries but delayed in Finland

Cereal harvest is nearly completed in the Baltic countries

but still under way in Finland, with a consequent delay in

autumn sowings. In Finland, weather conditions have been

favourable for growth of potatoes and sugar beet. The

cereal yield outlook remains above the average for the

Baltic countries but below the average for Finland.

Temperatures were slightly above average during the period, with maximum values reaching 29°C in Lithuania

and 27°C in Finland at the beginning of August. Rainfall

was lower than usual and radiation was above average in

all countries.

In the Baltic countries, the harvest of spring cereals has

nearly been completed. Winter drilling has started, with

the earliest rapeseed crops already emerging at the end

of August.

In Finland, the harvest of winter cereals has nearly

concluded. The spring cereal harvest began in early August

but was delayed by the variable summer conditions that

caused uneven ripening, and by the rainfall at the

beginning of September. So far, the spring cereal harvest

is characterised by variable yields, particularly for spring

barley. The harvest of rapeseed is under way, with poor

yield results. Autumn sowings have started, albeit slightly

delayed by the later harvesting of spring cereals. Harvest

of potatoes started at the end of August and yield

expectations are good. Similarly, the weather in August

has been favourable for the growth of sugar beet and the

harvest is expected to be satisfactory.

Yield forecasts for cereals have been maintained above

the 5-year average in the Baltic countries, and below the

5-year average in Finland. The forecasts for wheat, winter

barley, rye, triticale and rapeseed remain unchanged,

except for wheat in Estonia (+6.2%, to 4.49 t/ha) and

Lithuania (+0.4%); rye in Finland (-3.8% to 3.55 t/ha) and

Lithuania (+0.5% to 2.64 t/ha); and triticale in Lithuania

(+0.4% to 3.49 t/ha), taking into account the good

potential for cereals in Baltic countries and the

deteriorated outlook for rye in Finland. Updated yield

forecasts for spring barley and summer crops are given in

the forecast Tables. Whereas potato yields are generally

estimated to be above or close to the average, the sugar

beet forecast remains slightly below the trend in Lithuania

.


24

Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands Improved weather conditions insufficient to improve yield outlook for summer crops

After an intensive heatwave in the first half of August,

weather conditions improved, but water supply remains

limiting in Luxembourg, Belgium and the south-eastern

Netherlands. Yield forecasts for summer crops are

maintained or slightly revised further downwards.

A heatwave struck the region in the first half of August,

one of the most intensives in our records, with daily

maximum temperatures always exceeding 30 ⁰C from 6

to 13 August, except along the coast. Above-average

temperatures continued until the 21st, after which they

dropped to near-average levels. The first dekad of August

was practically dry throughout the region. Since then,

rainfall in Luxembourg, Belgium (except along the coast),

and the south-eastern parts of the Netherlands was

significant, but remained below the LTA, whereas rainfall

in central and northern Netherlands reached near-average

levels for the review period as a whole.

Summer crops were negatively impacted by the

combination of high temperatures and limited water

supply during the first two dekads of August, most

markedly in Luxembourg, large parts of Belgium and

south-eastern Netherlands. Here, soil water contents were

well-below average already before the heatwave. Mild

temperatures and rainfall since then contributed to a

partial recovery of the crops. However, rainfall was

insufficient to significantly increase soil water contents,

which are now below the levels of 2018 and 2019. In

other parts of the Netherlands and along the Belgian

coast, soil water levels improved more substantially, but

the damage already incurred by the heatwave does not

provide for an optimistic yield outlook. This is especially

true for sugar beet crops, which in many areas were

already poorly established due to the difficult conditions

around sowing and emergence. The yield forecasts for

summer crops (which in the August issue of the Bulletin

already accounted for the impacts of the heatwave) are

maintained or slightly revised further downwards.


25

Greece and Cyprus Sunflower yield potential weakened

Summer crop expectations are mostly on a par with or

slightly above an average season. Crops in Central

Macedonia fully recovered after an initial slowdown at the

start of the season. High temperatures and scarce rainfall

prevailed in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, leading to

moderate levels of abiotic stress on crops, especially

sunflowers.

In Greece, temperatures fluctuated mostly above the

average and rainfall cumulates were somewhat above the

LTA, with the main rain events occurring at the beginning

of September. By contrast, Eastern Macedonia and Thrace

was characterised by less favourable crop growth

conditions. Here, the average daily temperature was

among the highest on our records (since 1979): 26.1°C

compared with an LTA of 24.5°C. Meanwhile, rainfall

events were scarce, with the last rainfall event meaningful

for agriculture (> 5 mm/day) registered on 23 June. Cyprus

has also experienced a hot and dry period since the

beginning of August; however this typically occurs during

an average season.

During the review period, summer crops in Greece have

completed the development stages of grain filling and

ripening. The analysis of remote sensing images (fAPAR)

confirms average to above-average biomass

accumulation levels in most of the regions where green

maize, grain maize, potatoes and rice are grown. A

slowdown in biomass accumulation has been observed

since the end of June in Eastern Macedonia and Thrace.

This confirms weaker-than-usual crop status due to

prolonged exposure to abiotic stress during key

phenological stages. This region accounts for almost 60%

of national sunflower production and almost 20% of

green and grain maize production, with respect to the

Eurostat reported 5-year average.

Our yield forecasts are generally in line with the 5-year

average. The yield forecast for sunflowers was revised

downwards and is now below the 5-year average.

Slovenia and Croatia Positive outlook for summer crops

Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions, with rainfall

around or above the LTA, provided good conditions for the

ripening of summer crops. The crop yield outlook remains

positive.

The analysis period has been slightly warmer than usual,

with temperatures mainly between 1⁰C and 2⁰C above the

LTA. Even though a longer warm spell of five to eight days

was recorded in mid-August, the highest temperatures

were recorded at the end of August when maximum

temperatures peaked at 38⁰C in eastern Croatia. Rainfall

was above the LTA in Croatia and western Slovenia.

Rainfall cumulates reached from 80 mm in eastern

Croatia to more than 150 mm in western Slovenia and

north-western Croatia. Soil moisture levels for summer

crops almost reached saturation in northern Croatia and

Slovenia.

Summer crops are in good condition and slightly advanced

in development. Grain maize has already reached or is

approaching the maturity stage. Our crop yield forecasts

have remained stable, largely on a level with the figures


26

reported in the August issue of the Bulletin.


27

4.2. European Union – rice producing countries Above-average yield forecasts in most of the rice producing countries

Rice yield expectations for the main producing countries in the European Union (Italy and Spain, accounting for almost

80% of EU production) are above average, even though in Italy a potentially high disease pressure risk has been

identified.

The rice districts of Greece, Portugal and France, covering nearly 16% of EU production, benefited from generally

favourable growing conditions in the second half of the campaign, improving their yield potential after a slow or

uncertain start to the rice season.

The yield outlook is below average for the minor rice-producing countries: in Bulgaria, persistent dry conditions since

June and heat-induced spikelet sterility deteriorated the condition of rice crops, while in Romania and Hungary the

combined effect of biotic and abiotic stresses led to reduced yield estimates.

Overall, the yield forecast for rice in the EU is set to 6.86 t/ha, which corresponds to 1.8% above the 5-year average.

This estimation is in line with the previous outlook in June.

Italy High risk of disease pressure could negatively affect a very positive campaign

In northern Italy, June temperatures proved close to

average, with abundant precipitation: the rice districts of

Lombardia and Piemonte received 50-100 mm more

precipitation than usual. In July, temperatures increased

and, although not steadily, remained above average up to

the end of the month, when a five-day heatwave moved

maximum temperatures up to 38° (+4°C compared with

the LTA). In August, temperatures were slightly above

average. At the beginning and end of the month,

considerable rainfall occurred: in the Vercelli rice district,

cumulative rainfall of 80-120 mm was recorded – more

than twice the average amount. Rice displayed above-

average leaf area expansion in all provinces, with the

exception of Vercelli and Ferrara where it remained

around average. Flowering occurred between late July and

early August. Since then, rice development has

accelerated, and it is now 20 days in advance compared

with the LTA. Remote sensing analysis reveals favourable

biomass accumulation during the whole season; this is

also confirmed by our crop model output, which indicates

a yield potential somewhat above average. On the other

hand, the repeated wet and hot periods during the

summer also provided very favourable conditions for the

spread of blast disease. So far, the specialist press has not

been reporting any relevant damage from field trials.

Therefore, yield expectations are fair to good.

Spain and Portugal Favourable conditions overall

Temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula have been variable,

but not extreme, and generally favourable for rice growth.

After considerable rainfall in spring, little precipitation

occurred in the south throughout the rice-growing period,


28

similar to the previous year. Nonetheless, irrigation water

supply was generally sufficient to sustain crop grow and

development in Spain and Portugal. Currently, in the rice

areas of northeastern Spain (e.g. Cataluña) and southern

Portugal (Alentejo), rice is in the ripening stage and, due to

development being advanced by about one dekad, is fast

approaching the conclusion of the cycle.

In all these regions, crops are in good condition. In the

southern parts of Andalucía and Extremadura, ripening

only started in early September. However, the rice-

cultivated fields in the Cáceres region (central-western

Spain) and southern Seville are in more heterogeneous

conditions. Here, remote sensing analysis indicates less

cultivated fields in production this year compared with the

actual extent of the water supply network, thus signaling

a possible limitation in irrigation water supply.

Consequently, the overall yield outlook for Spain is above

the 5-year average and above last year. In Portugal, too,

rice yield is forecast above the 5-year average and higher

than the previous season.

Greece Above-average yield expectations

The rice districts in Thessaloniki and Serres (covering more

than 80% of national production) benefited from

generally favourable growing conditions over the past

months, which allowed for positive development after the

slow start to the season observed in June. Interpretation

of the remote sensing indicator (fAPAR) still suggests a

delay in crop development of nearly 10 days. However,

this delay was beneficial for rice during flowering in the

first dekad of August, as it allowed the crop to avoid the

stress of a heatwave in the last week of July with four days of Tmax > 35°C. The positive expectations for rice in

Greece are also supported by the high biomass

accumulation level observed during the vegetative phases

in July. At the time of this outlook, the crop is on average

at the tillering stage. Cumulated biomass levels are above

the LTA and above the previous year. Therefore, our yield

forecast for rice in Greece is above the 5-year average.


29

France Positive expectation for the rice campaign

The season was beneficial for rice in Bouches-du-Rhône.

Weather conditions were favourable at sowing, and the

season was characterised by positive anomalies in

temperatures and radiation, contributing to good

conditions for rice yields. Sowings went smoothly this year

and the warm temperatures observed in May were

beneficial for the emergence of rice. June was slightly

colder than average, slowing down biomass formation;

however, temperatures rose again to around the LTA from

July onwards. Only the first dekad of August was

exceptionally warm, but even though maximum

temperatures reached 38°C, no negative impacts are

expected on rice growth as the flowering period was

already completed. Except for the last dekad of April,

radiation was above the LTA throughout the campaign.

The yield forecast is above the 5-year average given the

positive radiation anomaly, but below the record yield of

2017 when, similarly to the current season, an exceptional

radiation anomaly contributed to a very positive rice

cropping season.

Bulgaria Below-average outlook for rice in Bulgaria

The 2020 campaign started under favourable conditions

for the main rice-producing districts of Bulgaria (Plovdiv,

Pazardzhik and Stara Zagora). Average-to-warm daily

temperatures were beneficial for crop emergence and

supported crop development until the mid-vegetative

stages (second dekad of June). From mid-June onwards,

the weather gradually changed to dry conditions with

above-average potential evapotranspiration (ET0), which

constantly deteriorated the condition of crops. Cumulative

rainfall in Plovdiv since the beginning of July has been only

28 mm, about a quarter of the LTA. This brought rice

biomass accumulation from above-average to average

levels at the end of the vegetative phase (mid-July).

Moderate levels of heat-induced spikelet sterility were

observed at the end of July, in response to a heatwave

over the period 29 July to 1 August when maximum daily

temperatures were above 35°C for four consecutive days.

Remote sensing indicators registered below-average

biomass accumulation during flowering and grain-filling

periods. In accordance with the variables analysed, our

yield forecast is lower than the outlook in June and below

the 5-year average.


30

Romania and Hungary Biotic and abiotic stress reduced yield outlook

Considerably colder-than-usual periods occurred in

Hungary and Romania this spring until 5 June, slowing

early rice growth and hampering the development of this

thermophile crop. Between early June and late August,

generally above-average temperatures led rice crop

development to recover to the level of the average

phenological calendar. However, around mid-July, a period

of below-seasonal temperatures prevailed, causing

moderate cold-induced spikelet sterility in both countries.

In addition, unfavourable high temperatures in August led

to heat-induced spikelet sterility and to a shortening of the

grain-filling period in south-eastern Romania.

Furthermore, the Hungarian rice fields experienced serious

blast infection due to the rainy conditions during summer.

Canopy expansion was delayed, and leaf area index after

blast infection – and consequently photosynthetic activity

– remained low in both countries. According to our current

model simulations, biomass accumulation remains below

the LTA due to the pressure from seasonal biotic and

abiotic stressors. Storage organ accumulation presents a

more positive image, but is still below the average.

Considering the rice campaign as a whole in the main rice-

producing regions, the yield forecast for both countries is

set below the 5-year average.


31

4.3. United Kingdom Spring cereal harvest progresses under wet weather

Warmer temperatures and a dry spell allowed the harvest

to advance well in early August. Intense rainfall slowed

progress in the second half of August. Warmer

temperatures advanced crop senescence in potato crops,

whereas recent rainfall benefited sugar beet. Abundant

rainfall during harvest further lowered our forecast for

spring cereals.

Temperatures were mostly above average, particularly in

the south. During the first two weeks maximum

temperatures reached 33°C in the East and South East of

England. Colder-than-usual temperatures characterised

the end of August and beginning of September. Rainfall

occurred mainly in the last two weeks of August and in the

form of intense rain. Some regions in the south-east and

east remained particularly dry during the first dekad of

August. In Scotland, precipitation was more uniformly

distributed during the period, with some abundant rainfall

events occurring at the beginning and at the end of

August.

Harvest was completed for winter barley and is under way

for wheat across the country. The wheat harvest was

slowed by the rainfall of the second half of August. In

addition, it was generally delayed by the switching of large

acreages to spring cereals which characterised this

season. Spring barley harvest continued under wet

weather, with reports of uneven maturity.

Sugar beet crops recovered after dry conditions. In potato

crops, senescence started earlier than usual due to the dry

and warm weather of early August. Harvest began mainly

intermittently due to the heavy rain in several regions.

Winter rapeseed has been drilled locally into good

seedbeds, under warm temperatures and adequate soil

moisture. Abundant rainfall during grain filling and harvest

further lowered our forecasts for spring cereals. A large

increase in spring wheat area not previously taken into

account, and the harvest under wet conditions, led us to

lower the wheat forecast by 3.8% to 7.5 t/ha.


32

4.4. Black Sea Area

Ukraine Grain maize yield revised downward

A substantial rain deficit was observed this summer in

central Ukraine, and the main producing oblasts for grain

maize are suffering from water stress. Here, on average

since the beginning of July, cumulative rainfall has not

reached 50% of the LTA. Grain maize yield expectations

have been lowered substantially; the outlook for other

summer crops is less negative.

The previously reported drought in the southernmost

oblast is still ongoing. Only a few intense rainfall events

were observed on the shore of the Black Sea. The situation

somewhat improved in the south-eastern oblast.

Over the review period, most of the central oblasts have

been exposed to a substantial rain deficit, prolonging the

dry conditions already observed in July. These conditions

were not seen as a threat to crop yields, as chernozem

soils are usually more resilient to rain deficits.

Nonetheless, given the lower-than-usual winter recharge,

summer crops have been much more exposed to water

stress than usual. Moreover, with late sowings and lower-

than-usual temperatures in May, the start to the season

was sub-optimal. Since the beginning of July, cumulative

rainfall has not reached 50% of the LTA in central Ukraine.

Poltav’ka, one of the main producing regions for grain

maize, is experiencing the second largest water deficit

since autumn (from 1 October 2019 to 8 September

2020), after 2007.

As the most pronounced rain deficit was observed in

central oblasts, and encompassed the main grain maize-

producing oblasts, grain maize yield was revised

substantially downward. Soybean and sunflowers were

much less impacted, given that sunflowers are cultivated

mainly in the south – where the rain deficit since 1 July

was not so critical – and soybean, with a large cultivated

area in the westernmost oblast, was much less exposed

to the rain deficit observed this summer.


33

Turkey Yield forecasts for summer crops remain above the 5-year average

Summer crops have reached flowering in Turkey, except

for the south-eastern regions where second cycle maize is

still in vegetative development. Yield forecasts for summer

crops are maintained above the 5-year average. The hot

August temperatures may have caused heat stress but

any potential effects of this are not yet noticeable. The

winter crop season ended in July.

In Turkey, average temperatures in August were generally

slightly above the LTA, with the exception of eastern

Kayseri where milder-than-usual to average temperatures

occurred. Conversely, in most of the western half of the

country, double the usual number of hot days with

maximum temperatures above 35°C occurred.

Precipitation was scarce, as usual; rainfall was absent in the main Anatolian highlands and less than 10 mm fell in

the western and Aegean agricultural regions.

In the western Anatolian regions, almost no precipitation

has occurred since 1 August and the maximum

temperature was above 35°C for 5 to 10 days due to two

heatwaves: the first in early August and the second in

early September (e.g. Konya). The second heatwave

coincided with flowering and grain filling, the most

sensitive stages for summer crops. For most of the crops,

heat stress should have been strongly mitigated by

irrigation.

In the Aegean regions, where most of the maize is planted,

temperatures were generally higher than usual. Notably,

the heatwave at the end of August/beginning of

September brought maximum temperature above 38°C,

peaking at 45°C. Such high temperatures will have had an

impact on maize grain filling, which could probably be only

partially mitigated by irrigation.

In south-eastern regions, summer crops are usually

planted as a second crop after the winter cereal season.

Therefore, their phenological cycle is delayed compared

with most of the summer crops in the rest of the country.

This year, the summer crop cycle is even more delayed,

due to the late sowings. Nonetheless, biomass

accumulation is well above the average (e.g. Sanliurfa).

The overall picture at the end of summer portrays some

difficulty for summer crops in the Anatolian plains and in

the Aegean regions. By contrast, the south-eastern regions

present very good crop development. Overall yield

expectations still remain favourable.


34

4.5. European Russia and Belarus

European Russia Good yield expectations for spring cereals; weaker outlook for grain maize

Drier-than-usual weather conditions in the south-western

regions of European Russia negatively affected the yield

formation of grain maize. The main spring cereal-

producing regions enjoyed better water supply conditions,

and yield expectations well exceed the 5-year average.

In European Russia, temperatures presented considerable

fluctuation, with frequently alternating warmer and colder

periods. This eventually resulted in a near-seasonal

average temperature for the review period (1 August to

5 September) as a whole. The second dekad of August

was exceptionally cold, while unusually warm conditions

prevailed after 21 August.

Precipitation remained scarce (1-30 mm) in most parts of

the Southern and North Caucasian okrugs, as well as in

the southern part of the Central okrug, including the

Central Black Earth Region. In the Volga okrug, abundant

rainfall was experienced during the first half of August,

whereas in the northern regions of Russia rainy weather

conditions prevailed after mid-August.

Simulated biomass accumulation for spring wheat and

spring barley reaches near- or above-average levels for

the main producing eastern and northern areas, thanks to

adequate water supply during the prime yield formation

periods. The yield outlook for spring cereals is above the

historical trend. However, frequent rain and overly wet

topsoil conditions are likely to have hampered the harvest,

especially in the Volga and Northwestern okrugs but also

in northern regions of the Central okrug.

Crop water supply to grain maize was insufficient during

the flowering and grain filling stages in the south-western

regions, and caused early leaf senescence. Additionally,

hot weather conditions in July and early August shortened

the grain-filling period in these regions. The condition of

grain maize seems to be better in some regions of the

Central and Volga okrugs, but overall the yield outlook is

pessimistic.


35

Belarus Slightly improved yield outlook for grain maize

Gradually improving soil moisture levels and slightly

above-average temperatures were beneficial for maize

yield formation

During the analysis period, slightly warmer-than-usual (0-

2°C > LTA) temperatures prevailed across the country.

After a relatively dry first half of August, rainfall events in

the second half of the month resulted in cumulative

rainfall values around or above the LTA, except for the

Gomel and parts of the Vitebsk regions, where

precipitation was below the LTA. Soil moisture levels have

been gradually improving over the past weeks and are

currently adequate for summer crops.

The harvest of winter and spring cereals has finished and

satisfactory results have been reported.

Agrometeorological conditions were generally beneficial

for maize, which is currently undergoing the final stages

of grain filling. Our model indicates close-to-average

storage organ accumulation, except for the Grodno region,

where results are below average. Our yield forecast for

maize has slightly increased compared with last month.


36

5. Crop yield forecast

Avg 5yrs 2019MARS 2020

forecasts%20/5yrs %20/19

EU 4.02 4.13 4.38 + 8.9 + 6.1AT 4.44 4.17 4.37 – 1.5 + 4.8BE — — — — —BG — — — — —CY — — — — —CZ 5.18 5.07 5.11 – 1.3 + 0.8DE 5.21 5.12 5.33 + 2.2 + 3.9DK 5.44 6.14 5.88 + 8.1 – 4.1EE 3.45 4.09 4.03 + 17 – 1.6EL — — — — —ES 3.01 2.80 3.69 + 23 + 32FI 3.72 4.23 3.64 – 2.3 – 14FR 6.22 7.04 5.77 – 7.3 – 18HR — — — — —HU 3.96 4.56 3.70 – 6.6 – 19IE 7.27 8.00 7.10 – 2.3 – 11IT — — — — —LT 3.34 3.29 3.49 + 4.7 + 6.0LU — — — — —LV 3.19 3.43 3.47 + 9.0 + 1.3MT — — — — —NL 6.44 6.50 6.61 + 2.6 + 1.6PL 3.37 3.21 3.47 + 3.0 + 8.2PT — — — — —RO 2.73 2.81 2.58 – 5.4 – 8.2SE 4.61 5.19 4.92 + 6.9 – 5.1SI — — — — —SK 4.45 4.57 4.35 – 2.1 – 4.8

UK 5.74 6.34 5.63 – 1.9 – 11

Country

Spring barley (t/ha)



EU 7.58 7.90 7.83 + 3.3 – 0.9AT 10.1 10.4 10.8 + 7.1 + 3.7BE 10.4 10.5 10.4 – 0.5 – 0.6BG 6.48 7.11 6.32 – 2.4 – 11CY — — — — —CZ 7.30 8.29 8.35 + 14 + 0.7DE 9.21 8.81 9.15 – 0.6 + 3.9DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL 10.3 10.6 10.6 + 3.2 + 0.2ES 11.6 11.8 11.8 + 2.2 + 0.3FI — — — — —FR 8.85 8.58 8.40 – 5.0 – 2.1HR 7.87 9.01 8.88 + 13 – 1.4HU 7.50 8.05 8.65 + 15 + 7.4IE — — — — —IT 10.2 10.0 10.6 + 4.4 + 6.5LT 6.39 7.67 6.26 – 2.1 – 18LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 9.78 9.75 10.0 + 2.3 + 2.6PL 6.09 5.62 6.68 + 10 + 19PT 8.52 8.98 8.71 + 2.2 – 3.1RO 5.52 6.52 5.69 + 3.0 – 13SE — — — — —SI 8.85 9.27 9.96 + 13 + 7.4SK 6.94 7.39 8.23 + 19 + 11

UK — — — — —

Country

Grain maize (t/ha)


37



EU* 40.2 39.2 40.0 – 0.4 + 2.0AT 45.4 46.1 47.4 + 4.4 + 2.6BE 40.3 41.0 42.0 + 4.1 + 2.4BG 21.5 21.4 22.2 + 3.2 + 3.7CY — — — — —CZ 34.0 35.5 35.0 + 3.0 – 1.3DE 41.2 39.0 40.0 – 2.8 + 2.6DK 37.4 44.5 40.4 + 8.0 – 9.3EE 30.9 35.4 33.3 + 7.9 – 5.9EL 20.2 21.0 20.8 + 2.9 – 0.6ES 39.6 44.0 38.1 – 3.7 – 13FI — — — — —FR 39.7 37.7 39.1 – 1.4 + 3.8HR 37.6 39.0 37.8 + 0.4 – 3.1HU 28.7 32.1 32.6 + 13 + 1.5IE 50.0 51.3 52.5 + 4.9 + 2.2IT 50.4 50.9 52.9 + 5.0 + 4.0LT 29.0 30.7 28.9 – 0.2 – 6.0LU 44.2 39.4 43.2 – 2.3 + 10LV 32.1 36.1 34.4 + 7.3 – 4.8MT — — — — —NL 41.5 42.7 41.5 + 0.0 – 2.9PL 43.5 40.6 42.8 – 1.5 + 5.5PT 36.8 35.4 35.7 – 3.1 + 0.8RO 27.8 30.7 28.6 + 2.9 – 6.9SE — — — — —SI 46.3 46.2 50.6 + 9.4 + 9.5SK 28.9 30.0 30.5 + 5.8 + 1.8

UK — — — — —

Green maize (t/ha)

Country



EU 32.4 N/A 32.8 + 1.3 N/AAT 30.3 31.3 34.3 + 13 + 9.5BE 41.0 41.1 42.4 + 3.2 + 3.1BG 17.6 21.3 17.1 – 2.8 – 19CY — — — — —CZ 26.9 27.2 28.9 + 7.5 + 6.2DE 41.8 39.0 41.4 – 0.9 + 6.2DK 41.0 42.5 41.9 + 2.1 – 1.4EE — — — — —EL 27.6 27.7 26.9 – 2.3 – 2.7ES 31.5 33.1 30.1 – 4.4 – 9.0FI 27.4 28.9 29.0 + 5.8 + 0.4FR 41.2 41.4 40.5 – 1.9 – 2.3HR — — — — —HU 24.2 25.0 27.7 + 14 + 11IE — — — — —IT 28.3 N/A 27.9 – 1.5 N/ALT 15.8 18.1 18.0 + 14 – 0.5LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 42.0 42.0 42.8 + 1.8 + 1.8PL 24.8 21.4 25.0 + 0.8 + 17PT 20.8 22.7 22.0 + 5.8 – 2.9RO 15.6 14.8 16.8 + 7.2 + 13SE 34.2 35.8 33.3 – 2.6 – 7.0SI — — — — —SK — — — — —

UK 40.5 36.5 42.1 + 4.1 + 16

Country

Potato (t/ha)


38



EU 74.5 N/A 73.0 – 2.1 N/AAT 70.8 70.5 76.4 + 8.0 + 8.4BE 84.9 88.2 83.0 – 2.3 – 5.9BG — — — — —CY — — — — —CZ 62.7 61.8 62.3 – 0.5 + 0.8DE 73.6 72.7 75.4 + 2.5 + 3.6DK 69.9 80.7 71.7 + 2.5 – 11EE — — — — —EL — — — — —ES 91.0 96.7 89.6 – 1.5 – 7.4FI 37.9 47.6 39.7 + 4.8 – 17FR 87.0 84.7 81.6 – 6.2 – 3.7HR 61.9 61.2 66.6 + 7.5 + 8.7HU 62.3 58.4 72.5 + 16 + 24IE — — — — —IT 64.1 N/A 65.4 + 2.0 N/ALT 59.3 71.0 58.0 – 2.2 – 18LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL 83.1 83.9 83.5 + 0.5 – 0.5PL 60.9 57.5 57.6 – 5.4 + 0.1PT — — — — —RO 38.4 31.1 36.9 – 3.7 + 19SE 63.6 74.0 64.5 + 1.3 – 13SI — — — — —SK 59.7 57.6 63.5 + 6.4 + 10

UK 70.4 69.0 75.8 + 7.7 + 9.9

Country

Sugar beets (t/ha)



EU 2.25 2.32 2.21 – 1.5 – 4.5AT 2.68 3.00 2.83 + 5.7 – 5.8BE — — — — —BG 2.28 2.35 2.02 – 11 – 14CY — — — — —CZ 2.43 2.44 2.41 – 0.9 – 1.2DE 2.02 2.04 2.14 + 6.1 + 4.7DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL 2.59 2.80 2.51 – 3.0 – 10ES 1.15 1.12 1.20 + 3.7 + 6.3FI — — — — —FR 2.27 2.15 2.26 – 0.6 + 4.9HR 2.90 3.02 2.92 + 0.7 – 3.2HU 2.88 3.00 3.08 + 6.7 + 2.5IE — — — — —IT 2.37 2.47 2.44 + 2.8 – 1.2LT — — — — —LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL — — — — —PL — — — — —PT — — — — —RO 2.47 2.64 2.37 – 4.3 – 10SE — — — — —SI — — — — —SK 2.66 2.64 2.83 + 6.2 + 7.2

UK — — — — —

Country

Sunflower (t/ha)


39



EU 2.94 3.03 3.05 + 3.7 + 0.6AT 2.86 3.11 2.78 – 2.8 – 11BE — — — — —BG — — — — —CY — — — — —CZ 2.10 2.27 2.28 + 8.5 + 0.4DE — — — — —DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL — — — — —ES — — — — —FI — — — — —FR 2.66 2.62 2.66 + 0.2 + 1.6HR 2.79 3.15 2.89 + 3.6 – 8.5HU 2.60 2.78 2.94 + 13 + 5.8IE — — — — —IT 3.61 3.66 3.94 + 9.0 + 7.6LT — — — — —LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL — — — — —PL — — — — —PT — — — — —RO 2.39 2.55 2.43 + 1.7 – 4.8SE — — — — —SI — — — — —SK 2.22 2.46 2.56 + 15 + 4.0

UK — — — — —

Country

Soybean (t/ha)



EU 6.73 6.74 6.86 + 1.8 + 1.8AT — — — — —BE — — — — —BG 5.65 6.04 5.54 – 2.0 – 8.4CY — — — — —CZ — — — — —DE — — — — —DK — — — — —EE — — — — —EL 6.62 7.42 7.04 + 6.4 – 5.2ES 7.71 7.70 7.83 + 1.5 + 1.7FI — — — — —FR 5.56 5.60 5.84 + 5.1 + 4.3HR — — — — —HU 3.98 3.82 3.80 – 4.6 – 0.5IE — — — — —IT 6.65 6.59 6.74 + 1.4 + 2.2LT — — — — —LU — — — — —LV — — — — —MT — — — — —NL — — — — —PL — — — — —PT 5.84 5.36 6.13 + 4.9 + 14RO 4.79 4.98 4.67 – 2.7 – 6.3SE — — — — —SI — — — — —SK — — — — —

UK — — — — —

Country

Rice (t/ha)


40



BY 3.51 3.83 3.89 + 11 + 1.6TR 2.78 2.78 2.90 + 4.3 + 4.5UA 4.01 4.16 3.98 – 1.0 – 4.4

Country

Wheat (t/ha)



BY 3.08 3.50 3.64 + 18 + 3.9TR 2.70 2.64 2.80 + 3.8 + 6.1UA 3.19 3.42 3.26 + 2.2 – 4.7

Country

Barley (t/ha)



BY 5.86 6.00 5.74 – 2.1 – 4.3TR 9.40 9.40 9.63 + 2.4 + 2.4UA 6.59 7.19 6.69 + 1.4 – 7.0

Country

Grain maize (t/ha)



BY — — — — —TR 4.33 4.25 4.66 + 7.5 + 9.5UA 2.19 2.29 2.34 + 7.2 + 2.4

Country

Soybean (t/ha)

NB:

Sources:

* The EU figures do not include green maize forecasts for Sweden since recent data on yields were not consistent.

The column header '%20/5yrs’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to the 5-year average (%). Similarly, '%20/19’ stands for the 2020 change with respect to 2019 (%).

N/A = Data not available.

Yields are forecast for crops with more than 10 000 ha per country with sufficently long and coherent yield time series (for rice more than 1 000 ha per country).

2015-2020 data come from DG Agriculture and Rural Development short-term-outlook data (dated August 2020, received on 31.8.2020), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 01.9.2020) and EES (last update: 15.11.2017).Non-EU 2015-2019 data come from USDA, Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Eurostat Eurobase (last update: 01.9.2020), State Statistics Service of Ukraine, FAO and PSD-online.

2020 yields come from MARS Crop Yield Forecasting System (output up to 10.9.2020).

EU aggregate after 1.2.2020 is reported.


41

6. Atlas

Temperature regime

Precipitation


42


43

Climatic water balance

Weather events


44


45

Crop development stages and precocity

Relative soil moisture


46

Rainfall and longest heat wave around ripening

Precipitation around harvesting


47

JRC MARS Bulletins 2020

Date Publication Reference

27 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 1 17 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 2 25 Mar Agromet analysis, yield

forecast Vol. 28 No 3

27 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 4

18 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 5

15 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 6

27 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, harvesting conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 7

24 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 8

14 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, harvesting update, yield forecast,

Vol. 28 No 9

25 Oct Agromet analysis, pasture update, sowing conditions, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 28 No 10

25 Nov Agromet analysis, sowing update, harvesting update

Vol. 28 No 11

14 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 28 No 12

The current JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – Directorate for Sustainable Resources)

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins

Analysis and reports B. Baruth, S. Bassu, A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, Y. Chemin, P. De Palma, D. Fumagalli, R. Lecerf, G. Manfron, L. Nisini, L. Panarello, G. Ronchetti, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, M. van den Berg, Z. Zajac, A. Zucchini

Reporting support SeproTec, G. Mulhern

Edition M. van den Berg, B. Baruth, S. Niemeyer, M. van der Velde, G. Manfron

Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL), VITO (BE)

Contact JRC D5/MARS4CAST [email protected]

Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.

Technical note

The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2019.

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.

Pre-press version. This is a pre-press version of the JRC MARS Bulletin, which, after final editing will be formally published by the Publications Office of the European Union.

In terms of content, both versions are identical.

Documents

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoringin Europe · large parts of Europe, extending from northern and eastern France to the northern Black Sea region, southern part of the Iberian Peninsula,