JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe · 2021. 3. 15. · Spain and parts of Ukraine (the abundant rain in Morocco at the beginning of January is not repeated in the map). Turkey

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe

February 2021

Limited impacts of cold spells on winter crops Persisting warm and wet conditions in south-eastern Europe

Since the beginning of January, the weather in Europe has

been marked by three cold spells. The first one, in the first

half of January, mainly affected the British Isles and

south-western Europe, as already mentioned in the

January issue of the Bulletin. The second, lasting 1-2 days,

occurred around 18 January in Poland and the Baltic

region. The third one, between 7 and 15 February, was

more pronounced and affected a larger area: first in

northern Europe, northern Poland, Germany, the Benelux

countries and northern France, and then, for one day only,

in Hungary, south-eastern Europe and Turkey. In several

regions, minimum temperatures reached during the third

cold spell were among the lowest of the past 50 years.

However, according to our assessment, negative impacts

on winter crops have been limited as most of the areas

affected were protected by snow cover during the coldest

periods. Some frost damage is expected to have occurred

in western Germany, eastern France, Hungary, south-

eastern Europe and Turkey, in areas without significant

snow cover and where frost tolerance was poorly

developed due to the prevailing warmer-than-usual

conditions preceding the cold spell. Winter frosts also have

benefits for crops, by improving the structure of clay soils

and by mitigating pest and disease pressure later in the

season.

In contrast, considering the review period as a whole, in

most parts of southern Europe average temperatures

were around 2 °C above the long-term average.

Rainfall was above average in most parts of Europe, with

the highest anomalies in Italy, the Balkan region, Romania,

Bulgaria and Greece, where abundant rainfall (already

reported in the January issue of the Bulletin) continued.

Well-above-average rainfall was also observed in eastern

Spain and parts of Ukraine (the abundant rain in Morocco

at the beginning of January is not repeated in the map).

Turkey received average precipitation, which mitigated the

drought conditions reported earlier, but was insufficient to

fully relieve concerns regarding the winter drought.

Issued: 22 February 2021

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 2

Contents: 1. Winter hardening and frost kill 2 Agrometeorological overview 3. Atlas

Covers the period from 1 January to 15 February

JRC MARS Bulletin Vol. 29 No 2 – 22 February 2021

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1. Winter hardening and frost kill

Europe has experienced quite remarkable temperature

variations since the beginning of the year. The review

period as a whole was substantially warmer-than-usual in

south-eastern Europe, southern European Russia, eastern

Ukraine and Turkey. Colder-than-usual conditions were

observed in many parts of central and northern Europe.

Two outstanding cold waves occurred during the analysis

period. The first one affected southern and eastern Europe

around mid-January. The second one affected western,

central and parts of south-eastern Europe, with the lowest

temperatures recorded between 11 and 14 February in

most regions. The minimum temperatures during the

second cold wave dropped below -20 ⁰C in central parts of

Germany, while the majority of central Europe experienced

minimum temperatures below -15 ⁰C. Minimum

temperatures in eastern France and the Benelux countries

also dropped below -10 ⁰C.

In addition to frost damage reported in the January issue

of the Bulletin, covering the period until 19 January, our

model simulations suggest minor frost-kill damage in

Hungary, south-eastern Europe and Turkey as a

consequence of the lack of frost resistance and the

pronounced cold wave in mid-February. Some frost

damage is also expected to have occurred in western

Germany and eastern France, again mainly due to the lack

of frost resistance and the absence of a protective snow

layer during the coldest period. The level of damage

expected is minor, as minimum temperatures remained

above -15 ⁰C in these regions. Winter cereals in central

Germany, which experienced temperatures below -20 ⁰C,

had already reached advanced hardening and were

protected by a snow layer during the days with the lowest

temperatures. The same two factors also prevented frost

damage in other parts of central Europe that were

affected by the cold wave in mid-February. It must be

noted that actual occurrences of frost damage can vary

locally, depending on crop variety resistance and local

variations in snow layer thickness, which are only partially

captured by our model.

With respect to the build-up of frost tolerance, according

to our model simulations, winter cereals are fully

hardened in major parts of eastern and northern Europe,

and almost fully hardened in central Europe. Since the

reporting in January, a loss of hardening is observed in


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south-eastern Europe and Turkey due to the prevailing

warm weather anomaly in these regions. Winter cereals

are only partially hardened in western Germany, the

Benelux countries and eastern France, while they are not

hardened in the rest of western Europe.

Further frost damage may occur in the coming 10 days,

due to severe cold spell forecast in eastern Europe,

especially in the southern part of European Russia.


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2. Agrometeorological overview

2.1. Meteorological review (1 January until 15 February 2021)

Warmer-than-usual conditions were observed in

south-eastern Europe, Turkey, and a large region across

south-western Russia and Ukraine. Daily mean

temperature anomalies (with respect to the LTA) in these

regions mainly ranged from +2 °C to +4 °C, but up to

+6 °C in some areas of Turkey and Russia. Slightly warmer-than-usual conditions, with daily

mean temperature anomalies from +0.5 °C to +2 °C,

were mainly recorded in southern Spain, Italy, Slovenia,

Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia and large areas of Ukraine. Slightly colder-than-usual conditions, with daily

mean temperature anomalies from -0.5 °C to -2 °C, were

mainly observed in a large west-east belt extending from

Brittany to European Russia, and in England, Wales, Ireland

and Finland. Colder-than-usual conditions, mostly with daily mean

temperature anomalies from -2 °C to -4 °C, were

observed in Scotland, Norway, Denmark and large areas

of Sweden and European Russia. Colder anomalies

(reaching -8 °C) were recorded in Norway. Wetter-than-usual conditions were observed in most

of Europe, with positive precipitation anomalies ranging

from 50% to 80% (with respect to the LTA). In large

regions of Italy, Spain, south-eastern and eastern Europe,

anomalies above 140% of the LTA were recorded in the

analysis period. Drier-than-usual conditions were observed in Norway,

large regions of Sweden, the Baltic countries, Denmark,

Russia, and in some areas of Turkey. Except for Norway,

precipitation anomalies in these regions were mainly from

-30% to -50%. In Norway, pronounced precipitation

anomalies from -80% to -100% were observed.

In January, several heavy snowfall events were reported

in Germany, Austria, Poland and Spain (associated with Storm Filomena). In February, heavy snowfall events

associated with Storm Darcy were reported in Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The cold spell associated with Darcy and evolving from 7 to 15

February brought very low minimum temperatures, well

below -15 °C in large regions. In some regions, this

unusual event broke previous minimum temperature

records for the past 60 to 70 years.


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2.2. Weather forecast (19-25 February)

Weather conditions will be mainly determined by a ridge expanding over the central Mediterranean and central Europe

that will bring exceptionally warm temperatures. At the same time, a deep trough will approach the Iberian Peninsula

and develop into a disconnected (from the zonal circulation) cyclonic system over northern Africa. Cold air intrusion will

determine weather conditions in European Russia.

Warmer-than-usual conditions are expected in most of

Europe, especially across France and Germany, the

Benelux countries, and southern Scandinavia. Daily mean

temperature anomalies (with respect to the LTA) will be

mainly from +4 °C to +8 °C. Daily maximum

temperatures are forecast to reach values from 16 °C to

20 °C in these regions. Colder-than-usual conditions are forecast in European

Russia, Finland, the northern part of Sweden, and Turkey.

Daily mean temperature anomalies of greater than -8 °C

are expected in Russia, while anomalies between -4 °C

and -8 °C are forecast in most of the other regions. Daily

minimum temperatures are expected to drop well below -

30 °C in large regions of Russia, while values between -30

°C and -25 °C are forecast in a large region across Ukraine

and Belarus. In the other regions, daily minimum

temperatures will reach values between -25 °C and -10

°C. Wet conditions, with accumulated precipitation mainly

between 60 mm and 100 mm (locally above 120 mm),

are forecast in the western part of the Iberian Peninsula,

in large areas of Ireland and of the United Kingdom, and along the south-western coast of Norway. 20 to 40 mm

of precipitation are predicted during the forecast period in

most other parts of these countries, as well as in western

and southern France, northern Sweden, and Finland. Dry conditions, with less than 5 mm of cumulative

precipitation, are expected in all other parts of Europe. The long-range weather forecast for March, April and

May points to likely-to-occur warmer-than-usual

conditions in most of Europe (very likely in the eastern

Mediterranean region).


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3. Atlas

Temperature regime


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Precipitation


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JRC MARS Bulletins 2021

Date Publication Reference

25 Jan Agromet analysis Vol. 29 No 1 22 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 29 No 2 15 Mar Agromet analysis, yield

forecast Vol. 29 No 3

26 Apr Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 29 No 4

25 May Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, sowing update, yield forecast

Vol. 29 No 5

21 Jun Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, yield forecast

Vol. 29 No 6

26 Jul Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, harvesting conditions, yield forecast

Vol. 29 No 7

23 Aug Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture update, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 29 No 8

20 Sep Agromet analysis, remote sensing, pasture analysis, rice analysis, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 29 No 9

25 Oct Agromet analysis, pasture update, sowing conditions, harvesting update, yield forecast

Vol. 29 No 10

22 Nov Agromet analysis, sowing update, harvesting update

Vol. 29 No 11

13 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 29 No 12

Mission statement: As the science and knowledge service of the European Commission, the Joint Research Centre's mission is to support EU policies with independent evidence throughout the whole policy cycle.

The current JRC MARS Bulletin – Crop monitoring in Europe is a JRC–European Commission publication from MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5 – Directorate for Sustainable Resources)

JRC MARS Bulletins are available at https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins

Analysis and reports A. Ceglar, I. Cerrani, L. Seguini, A. Toreti, L. Panarello, A. Zucchini

Reporting support SeproTec, I. Biavetti, G. Mulhern

Edition M. van den Berg

Data production MARS4CAST (JRC Unit D5), WENR (NL), MeteoGroup (NL)

Contact JRC D5/MARS4CAST [email protected]

Legal notice Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of this publication.

Disclaimer The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official European Commission position.

Technical note The long-term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a reference is based on an archive of data covering 1979-2020.

Pre-press version. This is a pre-press version of the JRC MARS Bulletin, which, after final editing will be formally published by the Publications Office of the European Union.

In terms of content, both versions are identical.

PDF: KJ-AW-21-002-EN-N ISSN 2443-8278 doi:10.2760/85001

Documents

JRC MARS Bulletin Crop monitoring in Europe · 2021. 3. 15. · Spain and parts of Ukraine (the abundant rain in Morocco at the beginning of January is not repeated in the map). Turkey