Joint Hurricane Test Bed Joint Hurricane Test Bed (JHT) Update(JHT) Update

JHT StaffJHT Staff

March 2004March 2004

USWRP

TPC/NHCTPC/NHCTropical Cyclone Forecasting PrioritiesTropical Cyclone Forecasting Priorities

1.1. Improve guidance for TC intensity change, Improve guidance for TC intensity change, especially rapid intensificationespecially rapid intensification

2.2. Real-time “guidance on guidance” for track, Real-time “guidance on guidance” for track, intensity, and precipitationintensity, and precipitation

3.3. Improve guidance for tropical cyclone Improve guidance for tropical cyclone precipitation amount and distributionprecipitation amount and distribution

TPC/NHCTPC/NHCTropical Cyclone Forecasting PrioritiesTropical Cyclone Forecasting Priorities

4.4. Identify and reduce occurrence of guidance Identify and reduce occurrence of guidance and official track outliersand official track outliers

5.5. Implement improved observational systems in Implement improved observational systems in the storm and its environment that provide the storm and its environment that provide data for forecaster analysis and model data for forecaster analysis and model initializationinitialization

6.6. Develop guidance for changes in TC size and Develop guidance for changes in TC size and related parameters, including combined sea related parameters, including combined sea heightsheights

JHT Round 1JHT Round 1

10 projects originally funded in FY0110 projects originally funded in FY01 9 of 10 renewed for funding in FY02, 9 of 10 renewed for funding in FY02,

concluded summer 2003concluded summer 2003 6 projects accepted in December 2003 for 6 projects accepted in December 2003 for

operational implementation in 2004operational implementation in 2004 Decisions on two projects deferred until Decisions on two projects deferred until

completion of new, closely related JHT completion of new, closely related JHT projectsprojects

One project was not accepted for operational One project was not accepted for operational implementation at this timeimplementation at this time

New SHIPS model predictors

AMSU intensity and size estimates

GFDL Hurricane Model upgrades

TC rainfall climatology and persistence

(R-CLIPER) model

Probability ofrapid intensification

JHT Successful Transfers from JHT Successful Transfers from Research to OperationsResearch to Operations

Factors Considered in TPC DecisionsFactors Considered in TPC Decisionsfor Operational Implementationfor Operational Implementation

Factors Considered in TPC DecisionsFactors Considered in TPC Decisionsfor Operational Implementationfor Operational Implementation

Forecast or Analysis Benefit:Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracyin operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy

Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsand ease of use needs

Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.hardware, software, data, communications, etc.

Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportupgrade, and/or provide support

Forecast or Analysis Benefit:Forecast or Analysis Benefit: expected improvement expected improvement in operational forecast and/or analysis accuracyin operational forecast and/or analysis accuracy

Efficiency:Efficiency: adherence to forecaster time constraints adherence to forecaster time constraints and ease of use needsand ease of use needs

Compatibility:Compatibility: IT compatibility with operational IT compatibility with operational hardware, software, data, communications, etc.hardware, software, data, communications, etc.

Sustainability:Sustainability: availability of resources to operate, availability of resources to operate, upgrade, and/or provide supportupgrade, and/or provide support

JHT Round 2JHT Round 2

15 projects funded in FY03 (August 2003)15 projects funded in FY03 (August 2003) Will be reviewed for renewal (FY04 funding) in Will be reviewed for renewal (FY04 funding) in

May-June 2004May-June 2004 First full season of real-time testing and First full season of real-time testing and

evaluation, May-Nov 2004evaluation, May-Nov 2004 Second year of testing and evaluation will Second year of testing and evaluation will

conclude August 2005conclude August 2005 Decisions in late 2005 for operational Decisions in late 2005 for operational

implementation in 2006implementation in 2006

NOAA65%

Navy (NPS, NRL) and USAF

12%

State and Private

Universities23%

Funding Distribution ComparisonFunding Distribution ComparisonIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAAIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAA

Funding Distribution ComparisonFunding Distribution ComparisonIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAAIncreased funding to researchers outside of NOAA

NOAA49%

Private Companies

2%

State and Private

Universities34%

Navy (NPS, NRL)15%

FY2003FY2003$1.35M$1.35MFY2003FY2003$1.35M$1.35M

FY2002FY2002$1.2M$1.2M

FY2002FY2002$1.2M$1.2M

FY03 Funded Project Focus AreasFY03 Funded Project Focus Areas

Primary Area of FocusPrimary Area of Focus # of Projects# of Projects

Improvements to dynamical modelsImprovements to dynamical models 44

Track forecast guidance algorithmsTrack forecast guidance algorithms 33

Intensity forecasting algorithmsIntensity forecasting algorithms 33

Enhancements to observed data, assimilationEnhancements to observed data, assimilation 22

Initial intensity estimationInitial intensity estimation 11

Tropical cyclogenesisTropical cyclogenesis 11

RainfallRainfall 11

TotalTotal 1515

Quantifying tropical cyclone track Quantifying tropical cyclone track forecast uncertainty and improving forecast uncertainty and improving extended range forecasts using an extended range forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical modelsensemble of dynamical models

PI: James Goerss (Naval Research Lab)PI: James Goerss (Naval Research Lab)– Spending six months (Nov 03-Apr 04) at TPCSpending six months (Nov 03-Apr 04) at TPC

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

24 48 72 96 120

GFDIAVNIUKMINGPIGUNA

2001-2003 Atlantic GUNA EnsembleTC Forecast Error (nm)

619 358 176 Number of Forecasts467 229

0102030405060708090

100

24 48 72 96 120

GUNACONU

2001-2003 Atlantic Forecast Availability Percentage

Hurricane Isabel – 00Z September 13, 2003Predicted CONU 76% Confidence Radius

Hurricane Kate – 00Z September 30, 2003Predicted CONU 76% Confidence Radius

Implementation of the Advanced Implementation of the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT)(AODT)

PIs: James Kossin and Chris Velden PIs: James Kossin and Chris Velden (CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin)(CIMSS/Univ. of Wisconsin)

Objective and Automated Assessment of Operational Global Forecast Model

Predictions of Tropical Cyclone FormationPatrick A. Harr

Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, CA

Acknowledgment: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project

Stage

GFS Eta

GFDLIV

JHT Round 3JHT Round 3

Preparation of Federal Funding Opportunity Preparation of Federal Funding Opportunity (FFO) document currently underway(FFO) document currently underway

Q&A panel session planned for AMS Q&A panel session planned for AMS Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, May 2004 in Miami BeachMeteorology, May 2004 in Miami Beach

FFO targeted for release on 1 June 2004FFO targeted for release on 1 June 2004 Will be open to government, academic, and Will be open to government, academic, and

private sector applicants worldwideprivate sector applicants worldwide Estimated available funding $1.5 millionEstimated available funding $1.5 million New projects begin ~March 2005New projects begin ~March 2005 Two-year projects conclude ~March 2007Two-year projects conclude ~March 2007 Possible operational implementations for 2007 Possible operational implementations for 2007

hurricane seasonhurricane season