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This is an update to John Gerzema's Calamity Presentation, with new examples of successful recession marketing. Calamity was rated the top presentation at this winter's Economist conference on marketing.
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Y&R THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
CALAMITY:MARKETING YOUR WAY OUT OF THIS RECESSION
Source: Conde Naste Portfolio, January 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam2
33Source: Michael Probst / AP
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
RESULTS 1–10 OF ABOUT22,200,000 FOR RECESSIONAND MARKETING
3
FUNDAMENTAL SOCIETAL SHIFTFROM A CREDIT TO A CONFIDENCE CRISIS
SEA CHANGES IN CONSUMER BEHAVIORS
COMPANIES MUST CHANGE HOW THEY
CONNECT WITH CONSUMERS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam4
MANAGING FOR AN UPTURN
SUPERIOR CASH FLOW AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTHALIGN BRAND AND BUSINESS STRATEGYACQUIRE TALENT AND QUALITYDO MORE WITH LESSSHARPEN MESSAGING AND ROIRETURN TO YOUR CORE
FACE YOUR CUSTOMER
5 Source: Y&R Strategy, HBR: Anthony T Jan, John Quelch Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
HALF OF ALL GLOBAL WEALTH
HAS EVAPORATED
$36 TRILLION DOLLAR LOSS WORLDWIDES&P 500 DECLINED 64.4% FROM 200045% OF AMERICAN WEALTH FROM LOSS OF EQUITY AND HOUSING VALUESAVERAGE RECESSION IS 6-12 MONTHS. THIS IS A MARATHON
6 Source: Bloomberg, Iconoculture March 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
UNEMPLOYMENT
HOUSING VALUES
EQUITY MARKETS
INTEREST RATES ?
COMMODITY PRICES
IN(STAG)FLATION ?
BAILOUT ?
THE NEW FEAR ECONOMY
7
NATIONAL DEBT
DETROIT
CURRENCY VALUATION ?
PROTECTIONISM ?
BANK LENDING
FACTORY & HOUSING STARTS
CREDIT CARD EXPOSURE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE}
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
EXCLUDING 2003 / IRAQ WAR PERIOD
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE:LOWEST SINCE 1967 (INCEPTION)
Source: ABC News8
THE LARGEST U.S. BUDGET DEFICIT POST WWII
9 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
VISUALIZING THE BAILOUT
10 Source: The Atlantic Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
12
FRACTURED FAITH INTHE AMERICAN DREAM
11
HOUSING VALUES CONTINUE TO DECLINE ACROSS THE U.S.
12 Source: “Irrational Exuberance”, 2nd edition, 2006, by Robert J. Schiller Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
AMERICAN’S HOMES NO LONGER PERSONAL LINES OF CREDIT
13 Source:Us Department of Housing and Labor, 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
WHILE THE CREDIT CRISIS HAS HALTED HOUSING STARTS
14 Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
15 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
INTO THE GREAT WIDE OPEN
UNEMPLOYMENT 8.5%; HIGHEST IN TWENTY-FIVE YEARS
FOURTH STRAIGHT MONTH OF 600,000 JOBS LOST
THIS PERIOD MARKED BY MOST JOB LOSSES, WEAKEST RECOVERY
16 Source: Change in Nonfarm Pay rolls, Reported Monthly, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S Dept of Labor Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
DEALING WITH THE STRESS OF THE CURRENT ECONOMY
3 Source: Comscore Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
17
MILLIONAIRES HAVE LOST ONE-THIRD OF THEIR NET WORTH.
AN EQUAL OPPORTUNITY RECESSION
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
AFFLUENT MORTGAGE RATE DEFAULTS
18 Source: LPS Applied Analytics Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC RELATED SEARCHES
1 Source: Comscore Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
20 Source:New York Times
ONE STORY IN THE AMERICAN NIGHTMARE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
11
A GROWING REALITY:
19
A MORTGAGE IS FOREVER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam2121
MASLOW UPENDED: MARKETING MUST MOVE FROM PASSION TO COMPASSION
19 Source: American Progress.org February 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
2007
2009
28
TECTONIC SHIFTS IN CONSUMERISM:
LACK OF LEADERSHIP AND RESPONSIBILITY
SELFISHNESS AND
COLLUSION
PROLONGEDCONFLICTS AND PARTISANSHIPEGREGIOUS
AND CRIMINALBEHAVIOR
FAILURE OF REGULATORS
TAXPAYERS ARE NOW
SHAREHOLDERS
DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE
LACK OFPERMANENCE
TRUST
2926
LACK OF LEADERSHIPAND RESPONSIBILITY
PROLONGED CONFLICTSAND PARTISANSHIP
28
30
FAILURE OF REGULATORS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
2531
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
TAXPAYERS ARE NOWSHAREHOLDERS
32
DECAYING INFRASTRUCTURE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
33
LACK OF PERMANENCE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
37
THE NEW CULTURAL FAULT LINE
34
28 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam35
39
WE EXAMINED 15 YEARSOF DATA FROM BRANDASSETVALUATOR®
WORLD’S LARGESTDATABASE OFBRANDS
OVER 500,00CONSUMERS
40,000 BRANDS
215 STUDIES
ACROSS 44 COUNTRIES
QUARTERLY U.S.PANEL OF 15,000+RESPONDENTS
72 DIFFERENTBRAND METRICS
30
Source: Millward Brown Optimor 2007
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam37
BRANDS NOW ACCOUNTFOR 30% OF THE VALUE OFTHE S&P 500
31
THE 250 MOST VALUABLEGLOBAL BRANDS ARE$2.197 TRILLION DOLLARSWHICH EXCEEDS THE GDPOF FRANCE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam38
32
BRAND ESTEEM ANDREGARD IS DOWN 12%
BRAND AWARENESS HASDECLINED BY 20%
PERCEPTIONS OF BRANDQUALITY HAS ERODED 24%
TRUST IN BRANDS HAS DECLINED BY 50%
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam3939
TRUST IS DESIRABLE, BUT IT HASN’TDIFFERENTIATED
40 Source:BrandAsset Valuator 1993-2007 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
IN THE PAST QUARTER, A ‘TRUST VIRUS’ INFECTED MANY CATEGORIES
41Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
Source: BAV USA FY2006, FY2007, Q4 2007, Q4 2008; All Adults
“I SCREWED UP”42 Source: Barack Obama Press Conference, February 2009 Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
CONSUMERS ARE BEGINNINGTO OWN THEIR PROBLEMS
43 Source: Time Magazine Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
THEY REALIZE THERE’S A LONG,HARD SLOG AHEAD
44 Source: Reinhart and Rogoff, The Aftermath of Financial Crises, 2009
SAVINGS RATE HAS RISEN IN PAST FIVE CONSECUTIVE MONTHS
45 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
Q4 SPENDING FELL 3.7% FROM Q3 - STEEPEST DECLINE IN 62 YEARS. $3 TRILLION IN SPENDING STOPPED IN Q4, WAS SUSTAINING US GDP
46 Source: www.calculatedriskblog.com Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
50 Source: Gabriel Dance, Aron PIlhofer and Andrew Kueneman - New York Times
MOST POPULAR TAG’S ABOUT CONSUMER BEHAVIOR
3948
CREATE COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE NOW
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
EVERY RECESSION ENDS...EVENTUALLY
CONSUMERS MOVING FROM ANXIETY TO ACTION
HOW YOU ACT NOW WILL SHAPE YOUR FUTURE
PERFORMANCE
49
THE NEW RULES OF ‘POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM’
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
NEW CULTURAL VALUES
NEW CONSUMER BEHAVIORS
NEW MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLES
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #1
CULTURAL VALUE = LIQUID LIFE
CONSUMER STRATEGY = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION
MANAGEMENT = DOLLARS AND PRINCIPLE SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam56
54
DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION
CULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFECONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTION
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
55
DOLLARS AND SENSECULTURAL VALUE=LIQUID LIFE
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DÉCLASSÉ CONSUMPTIONMANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= DOLLARS AND SENSE
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
56
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #2
CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY
CONSUMER STRATEGY = EMPATHY AND RESPECT
MANAGEMENT = VALUE AND PRINCIPLE VALUES
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
54
CULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
EMPATHY AND RESPECT
VALUE AND VALUESCULTURAL VALUE = ETHICS AND FAIR PLAY
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = R-E-S-P-E-C-T
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = VALUE AND VALUES
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam55
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #3
CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT
CONSUMER STRATEGY = DURABLE LIVING
MANAGEMENT = BRAND THAT
PRINCIPLE LASTS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam50
DURABLE LIVING
51
CULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRITCONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVING
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
61
BRAND THAT LASTSCULTURAL VALUE = INDESTRUCTIBLE SPIRIT
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = DURABLE LIVINGMANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE = BRAND THAT LASTS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
POST-CRISIS CONSUMERISM RULE #4
CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD
CONSUMER STRATEGY = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM
MANAGEMENT = COMMUNITY PRINCIPLE ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam59
63
COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM
CULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLDCONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISM
MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
64
COMMUNITY ORGANIZERCULTURAL VALUE = RETURN TO THE FOLD
CONSUMER BEHAVIOR = COOPERATIVE CONSUMERISMMANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE= COMMUNITY ORGANIZER
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
53
THE OPPORTUNISTIC CEO: BRAND MANAGER IN CHIEF
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
54
MARKETING IS NOT A COST, BUT A FIDUCIARY RESPONSIBILITYTO SHAREHOLDERS
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
65
BAD COMPANIES ARE DESTROYED BY CRISIS. GOOD COMPANIES SURVIVE THEM. GREAT COMPANIES ARE IMPROVED BY THEM.” —ANDY GROVE
THE CHINESE CHARACTER FOR CRISIS ALSO MEANS OPPORTUNITY
Copyright John Gerzema/Young & Rubicam
68
RECESSION-PROOFYOUR BRAND
JOIN THE CONVERSATION ATTHEBRANDBUBBLE.COMON FACEBOOKOR TWITTER@JOHNGERZEMA
