Jim Hurrell

Director

Climate and Global Dynamics Division

jhurrell@ucar.edu

Climate and Ecosystem Community Planning MeetingNovember 2-3, 2005

Boulder, CO

Toward Integrative Science at NCAR: Building Links Between the Climate and Ecosystem

Impact Research Communities

The Grand Challenge

To understand and be able to project the effects of global climate variability and change on ecosystems, the goods and services ecosystems provide, the drivers and consequences of human responses to ecosystem variability and change, and ecosystem links to the climate system.

Goals of the Proposal

• Identify and enhance collaborative opportunities between climate, ecosystem and climate impact scientists

• Use and link tools such as the CCSM, high-resolution ocean models and marine ecosystem and foodweb models

• Trace the linkages from variations in modes of climate variability to changes in the physical ocean and changes in marine nutrients, primary producers and the higher trophic levels that support human fisheries

• Ultimately to assess possible impacts on the characteristics and dynamics of those fisheries

• Position NCAR as a major resource for the marine ecological and fishery management communities

Why NCAR?

• NCAR has a base of interdisciplinary expertise to frame the study: climate and ecosystem modeling, and fisheries and marine impacts and policy studies

• But the study is beyond the scope of NCAR alone

• A key feature is the systematic collaboration of GLOBEC scientists and policy professionals, the interests and emphases of which resonate with those found at NCAR, including the development of Earth System Models

Potential links• Connection between NCAR and GLOBEC modeling efforts

Flexibility of CCSM GLOBEC models as alternative modules to existing CCSM ocean models Continued progress on embedding regional scales models

• Analysis of observational and model data to further document and understand modal variability and the associated ecological responses

Simulation of major modes of variability an emphasis of CCSM IPCC FAR runs thus of interest to both climate and marine ecosystem communities

• Reanalysis of long records from fisheries in light of recent knowledge gained on climate modes and their role in climate change

Synergism between retrospective analyses of GLOBEC data and climate analysis research

• Analysis of the utility of CCSM and GLOBEC model results for managers, policy makers and economists, e.g.

Can the assessment of fisheries stocks be improved with such model results? Can fishery managers design their decision making, monitoring and enforcement processes to promote socially beneficial use of such information?

Goals: The Initial Planning Meeting

• Produce a list of prioritized challenges that can be best (and perhaps only) be addressed through such collaborative efforts

• Identify a (short) list of potential pilot projects that would demonstrate why this effort should be continued and expanded

Internal ecosystem dynamics North Atlantic basin scale Pacific

Warm and cold epochs ENSO

Tuna (end-to-end approach) Coral Reefs

• Short white papers being developed. Will include

Science to be addressed, including necessity of linking climate, ecosystem science and management Tools (models, datasets) Research plan

International WorkshopLate summer or fall 2006 (at NCAR)

GOALS

• Build bridges from physical climate through to marine resource policy

• Identify the role of coupled modeling and coupled climate-ecosystem models in building those bridges

• Identify goals for improved coupled (climate-marine ecosystem) models

• Provide a focused activity linking the physical, biological and social science communities together

• Set the stage for an ASP colloquium in 2007 Graduate and post-doctoral students Tutorials in using CCSM

AgendaWednesday, November 2, 2005

12:30 Shuttle leaves Millennium Harvest House to NCAR

1:00 –– 1:15pm Welcome (James Hurrell)

1:15 –– 1:40pm Overview of Ecosystem/Climate Integration (David Schimel)

1:40 –– 2:05pm CCSM Overview (James Hurrell)

2:05 –– 2:30pm Coupled Variability in CCSM (Mike Alexander)

2:30 –– 2:55pm Marine Ecosystems (Zach Powell)

2:55 –– 3:20pm Regime Shifts (Brad DeYoung)

3:20 –– 3:45pm Links to Policy Activities (Kathleen Miller)

3:45 ––4:15pm BREAK

4:15 –– 5:15pm Participant Introductions Zach Powell

5:15 –– 6:30pm Plenary – Organization of Working Groups Cisco Werner

6:45pm Shuttle leaves NCAR

7:30pm Group Dinner at Dolan’s (Local Restaurant)

AgendaThursday, November 3, 2005

8:00 Shuttle leaves Millennium Harvest House to NCAR

8:30 –– 9:45am Topical Working Groups

9:45 –– 10:15am BREAK

10:15 –– 11:15am Working Groups to Identify Pilot Projects

11:15 –– 1:00pm Plenary – Lunch Provided