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Jere R. BehrmanUniversidad de Chile
13 Diciembre 2011
International Team: Hollis Chenery, Richard Eckaus, Paul Rosenstein-Rodan, Carlos Diaz-Alejandro, Edmar Bacha, Peter Clark, LanceTaylor
National Team: Alejandro Foxley, Ana Maria Jul, Ricardo Lira, Cristian Osa
Other National Economists: Ricardo Ffrench-Davis, Joseph Ramos, Vitorio Corbo, Marcelo Selowsky
"Sectoral Elasticities of Substitution Between Capital and Labor in a Developing Economy: Time Series Analysis in the Case of Postwar Chile," Econometrica 40:2 (March 1972), 311-328 (Spanish translation in Cuadernos de Economia 9:26, April 1972, 70-88).
"The Determinants of the Annual Rates of Change of Sectoral Money Wages in a Developing Economy," International Economic Review 12:3 (October 1971), 431-447 (Spanish translation in Cuadernos de Economia 9:27, August 1972, 102-119).
"Short-Run Flexibility in a Developing Economy," Journal of Political Economy 80:2 (March/April 1972), 292-313.
"Sectoral Investment Determination in a Developing Economy,"
American Economic Review 62:5 (December 1972), 825-841.
Macroeconomic Policy in a Developing Country: The Chilean Experience, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1977 (Contributions to Economic Analysis, No. 106).
Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development: Chile, New York: Columbia University Press for NBER, 1976 (Special Conference Series on Foreign Trade Regimes and Economic Development, edited by Jagdish Bhagwati and Anne O. Krueger,Vol. 8).
Substantial flexibility and responsiveness to incentives both for capacity utilization and capacity expansion.
Therefore substantial policy distortions through high and high variance barriers to international sector likely to have been costly
Encuesta Protección Social National Team: Alberto Arenas, David Bravo, Javiera
Vasquez, Sandra Quijada (and the Survey Unit) International Team: Olivia Mitchell, Petra Todd and
Kenneth Wolpin at University of Pennsylvania Analysis of pension system, schooling U.S. National Institutes of Aging and Spencer
Foundation grants for collaborative research Exploration of parallel surveys in other LAC countries
led by Alberto Arenas and David Bravo, with support from IDB.
“The Chilean Pension Reform Turns 25: Lessons from the Social Protection Survey” (with Alberto Arenas de Mesa, David Bravo, Olivia S. Mitchell, Petra E. Todd and with the assistance of Andres Otero, Jeremy Skog, Javiera Vasquez, Viviana Velez-Grajales), in Stephen J. Kay and Tapen Sinha, eds. Lessons from Pension Reform in the Americas. Oxford University Press, 2008, 23-58.
“First-Round Impacts of the 2008 Chilean Pension System Reform” (with Maria Cecilia Calderon, Olivia S. Mitchell, David Bravo, and Javiera Vasquez), Journal of Pension Economics and Finance (revised and resubmitted).
“Teacher Labor Markets in Chile” (with David Bravo, Michela Tincani, Petra Todd, Kenneth Wolpin), in progress.
“How Much Might Human Capital Policies Affect Earnings Inequalities and Poverty?” Estudios de Economía 38:1 (June 2011), 9-42.
“Financial Literacy, Schooling and Wealth” (with Olivia S. Mitchell, Cindy K. Soo and David Bravo) American Economic Review. Forthcoming 2012.
Pension Wealth
Housing Wealth
Other Wealth
Total Net Wealth
Pension Density
Calculated Retirement
Money
Schooling 5.55 1.98 2.66 10.18 3.23 1.12
Fin Lit 3.23 1.14 1.83 6.2 1.88 0.62
Fin Lit 3.4 1.06 4.46 8.93 1.94 0.31Schooling -0.34 0.14 -5.05 -5.25 -0.12 0.58
Fin Lit -2.28 -1.51 0.28 -3.51 2.15 2.19
Schooling 2.44 1.4 -3.01 0.82 -0.23 -0.34Fin Lit*Schooling 0.44 0.2 0.33 0.97 -0.02 -0.15
Fin Lit*Schooling 0.34 0.12 0.2 0.66 0.19 0.06
Table I. Instrumental Variable Estimates of Schooling & Financial Literacy on Wealth Outcomes, Pension Contributions, and Retirement Planning
Bold means statistically significant.
Panel II. Fin Lit Index Alone
Panel I. Schooling Alone
Panel III. Both Fin Lit and Schooling
Panel IV. Linear and Interaction Effects
Panel V. Interaction Effect Alone
Const R sq
Prim Sec Ter Level Square F
0.04 0.102 0.235 0.04 -0.00048 12.412 0.201
5.31 22.9 36.69 28.79 -22.5 286 1009
xMale 0.036 0.015 -0.038 0.169
4.16 2.84 -4.2 4.05
0.039 0.104 0.227 0.022 -0.0003 5.481 0.339
9.06 49.16 77.89 21.37 -16.44 220.08 2810
xMale 0.041
30.42
Weighted Semi-Log Earnings and Wage Functions for 51,244 Adults Age 21+ in 2004 Chilean SPS *
Spline in Schooling Pot Experience
*t-statistics in italics beneath coefficient estimates; potential experience is age - schooling attainment - 6; the row with "xMale" includes all significant coefficients for the interaction between "male" and the right-side variable in that column
ln Wage
ln Earnings
Level SE Level SE Level SE
Schooling 0.23 0.001 0.18 0.002 0.30 0.002
Earnings 0.53 0.003 0.20 0.002 0.36 0.002
1 3 grades sch <=6 Schooling 0.18 0.001 0.06 0.001 0.18 0.002
Earnings 0.52 0.003 0.18 0.002 0.33 0.002
2 3 grades sch <=9 Schooling 0.16 0.001 0.06 0.001 0.15 0.002
Earnings 0.51 0.003 0.17 0.002 0.31 0.002
3 to 6 grades sch < 6 Schooling 0.19 0.000 0.00 0.000 0.30 0.002
Earnings 0.52 0.003 0.19 0.002 0.34 0.002
4 to 9 grades sch < 9 Schooling 0.12 0.001 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.000
Earnings 0.50 0.003 0.16 0.002 0.30 0.002
Base
Simulations of Impacts of Changed Schooling Distribution on Inequality and Poverty Based on 2004 Chilean Social Protection Survey*
Simulation Gini Poverty Headcount
Schooling Change
Target Pop
Coefficient "Low" Cutoff "Higher" Cutoff
Encuesta Longitudinal de la Primera Infancia (ELPI)
“Tools of the Mind” preschool experiment National Team: David Bravo, Marthita Kluttig,
Daniela Marshall, Pamela Soto, Sergio Urzúa International Team: Elena Bordova, Angela
Duckworth, Patrice Engle, Deborah Leong, Thomas McDade, Whitney Schott
United States National Institute of Child Health and Development grant for analysis
“Economic Perspectives on Some Important Dimensions of Early Childhood Development in Developing Countries” (with Sergio Urzúa) in Pia Rebello Britton, Patrice L. Engle and Charles M. Super, eds, Handbook of Early Childhood Development: Translating Research to Global Policy Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press, 2012.
“Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Patterns in Chilean Early Childhood Development: Associations with Income and Other Factors” (with David Bravo, Marthita Kluttig, Daniela Marshall, Whitney Schott, Pamela Soto), 2011.
“Wealth gradients in early childhood cognitive development in five Latin American countries” (with Norbert Schady, Maria Caridad Araujo, Rodrigo Azuero, Raquel Bernal, David Bravo, Florencia Lopez-Boo, Karen Macours, Daniela Marshall, Christina Paxson, and Renos Vakis), Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank, 2011.
Cognitive skills are but one component of early childhood development and recent literature suggests possible high payoffs to others as well, such as executive function
Here we look at (1) patterns by income quintile and (2) simple regressions for cognitive and language skills, anthropometrics and motor skills, behavioral and social-emotional skills
Measures of child development not highly correlated
Encuesta Longitudinal de la Primera Infancia
First round of data, 2010 Representative sample of 13,895 children,
ages 9-55 months for this presentation (ELPI also includes children 0-8 months)
Includes measures of cognitive, psychosocial, and physical development, as well as parental schooling, income, and household environment
Ages Measure Description Components/examples
8-24 months
Battelle Developmental Inventory (Battelle)
A battery of tests to evaluate fundamental components of development
Communication:Example: Smiles in response to interaction with adult
24-53 months
Test of Psychomotor Development(TEPSI)
Evaluates psychomotor development
LanguageExamples: recognizes big and small, names shapes, describes scenes
30-53 months
Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (TVIP)
Evaluates cognitive skill level
Children are asked to identify what is shown in picturesBoat, cow, cooperation, surprised, crawl
Ages Measure
9-53 months Z-score length for ageZ-score weight for lengthZ-score for BMIZ-score for head circumference
(Z scores give standard deviations from medians)
Ages Measure Description Component/Examples
8-24 months
Battelle Developmental Inventory (Battelle)
A battery of tests to evaluate fundamental components of development
MotorExamples: Sits without support, walks holding an object, climbs stairs, turns pages of a book, copies a circle, folds a piece of paper in half
24-53 months
Test of Psychomotor Development (TEPSI)
Evaluates psychomotor development
CoordinationExamples: Can make a tower with 8 blocks, can copy a circle, can button and unbuttonMotor skillsExamples: can jump with both feet, throws a ball with one hand, jumps on one foot three times
Ages Measure
Description Examples
18-53 months
from Child Behavior Checklist
Composite of inattention, restlessness/impatience, noncompliance, distractibility, lack of emotional regulation
Examples: Can’t concentrate, can’t sit still, disobedient, easily frustrated
Ages Measure Description Components
9-18 months
Ages and Stages (ASQ)
Screening for possible social/emotional developmental delays
Self-regulation, affect, interaction with people, autonomyExample: Does your child enjoy being held? Does your baby smile?
8-24 months
Battelle Develop-mental Inventory
A battery of tests to evaluate fundamental components of development
Personal/social: interaction with adults, expression of emotions, interaction with peersExample: Smiles in response to interaction with adultAdaptability: ability for self-help/independenceExample: Puts on his/her own shoes
18-53 from Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL)
Composite of emotional and social skills
Examples: Avoids eye contact, does not get along with peers, fights a lot, cries a lot, shows little affection towards people
(negative)
(negative)
(negative)
Even at very young ages (9 to 24 months), level differences in cognitive skills are apparent by income quintile, and education and WAIS score of the mother
Divergence in cognitive skills appears to take place after age 3 (between 36 and 40 months)
This divergence is characterized by the lowest quintile not improving, while the highest quintile does improve, as evidenced by TVIP scores
Patterns by income are less clear for the anthropometric measures
There are differences by income in coordination, and possibly in motor skills
Pronounced level differences in behavioral and socio-emotional indices at young ages
Possible divergence in behavioral development between the highest and lowest quintiles around 40 months
1. Regressed each measure on income quintiles and age in month dummies only
2. Regressed each measure on household environment and parental characteristics, plus age in month dummies
When other variables included, income differences less pronounced:
Ages 30-53 months
Ages 9-53 months
Ages 9-53 months
Ages 24-53 months
Ages 9-53 months
When income associations are important, controlling for other factors reveals that mother’s cognitive skills play a key role in “explaining” much of these difference
This is true for both cognitive and non-cognitive measures: coordination, behavior, and socio-emotional skills
For behavioral and socio-emotional skills, having an older and wiser mother is associated with better outcomes
Birth weight has persistent and large associations not only with anthropometric measures, but also with coordination, language ability, motor skills, and cognitive performance
Day care enrollment is negatively associated with cognitive performance at young ages, but positively associated with language after 24 months; it is negatively associated with behavioral outcomes for all ages
Females have higher TVIP scores, language ability, better coordination and motor skills, and fewer behavioral social/emotional problems
Overall, a wide array of home environmental and parental characteristics are associated with child development when these multiple components of child development are considered.
Important to move beyond associations to estimate causal effects with both 2010 and 2012 ELPI as guide for understanding and policy.