Status Report on DSWG Task 11: Retail DR/Dynamic Pricing Project

Presentation to the ERCOT Demand Side Working Group

Jay ZarnikauFrontier Associates LLC

September 27, 2013

BackgroundPUC Subst. Rule §25.505(e)(5): Load serving entities (LSEs) shall provide ERCOT with complete information on load response capabilities that are self-arranged or pursuant to bilateral agreements between LSEs and their customers.

ERCOT sent electronic survey to all LSEs in June-July seeking customer counts on dynamic pricing/demand response contracts –‘Your response to the survey will assist ERCOT have a better understanding of the amount of responsive Load and numbers of retail energy consumers actively responding to Load reduction signals’

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BackgroundQuantify current customers in the ERCOT region subject to retail price response/demand response products

• Establish a benchmark for measuring growth in demand response

• Start by gathering tallies of customers who are contracted with their LSEs for various types of products:

oTime of Use pricing oCritical Peak pricing/rebates oReal-Time pricing oDirect Load Control o4CP response • Survey did not ask for MWs or strike prices

Some supplemental analysis is examining the impacts of solar photovoltaic programs on ERCOT’s system demand

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Overall goal:•By the end of this year, have a better estimate of the level of demand response activities in the ERCOT market that are taking place outside of ERCOT’s formal markets•Determine ongoing activities and procedures, beyond this initial analysis. The Task 11 Subgroup•Seeks to provide some help to the ERCOT staff in the analysis of this data

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GOALS

Where We Are At:The subgroup had its third meeting/conference call on Monday, September 23rd.

Overall, the response from the load serving entities to the survey has been very good.

Some of the REPs are likely to receive follow-up questions to help us identify specific pricing or curtailment “events” and some program features. Follow-up data requests are presently being designed.

Analysis of the survey responses is getting started.

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ERCOT Staff’s Approach to Quantifying Changes in Demand Associated with DR Actions

For solar PV:•Compare load shapes of consumers with solar PV to sets of otherwise-similar homes without solar PV (i.e., matching techniques).•Very computer intensive. For demand response:•Identify “events” (e.g., price spikes, critical peak prices called by a REP, curtailment requests).•Look at load patterns for the same customer on previous days and compare with the load shape on the day of the event (an historical baseline approach).•Perhaps also compare load shapes of customers on a program to otherwise-similar customers not on the program.

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Next Steps

Follow-up data requests are presently being designed.

We are determining what analysis Varun Rai’s group at the University of Texas may want to assist with. (Whatever is done will probably supplement, rather than displace, what the ERCOT Staff is doing).

The subgroup will meet again once the ERCOT Staff has completed some preliminary impacts analysis.

Report to the stakeholders by the end of the year.

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Summary Statistics• 21 REPs submitting validated ESIIDs

– 1 more with none– 15,826 ESIIDs with uncorrected errors

• Working with REPs to resolve• Some are intentional deletions

• 177,451 ESIIDs with validated submissions– 18,385 will be excluded from analysis

• 1,780 ESIIDs became inactive/de-energized after June 15 and still not active

• 2,214 ESIIDs became inactive/de-energized after June 15 and went to different REP

• 956 ESIIDs became inactive/de-energized after June 15 and returned to same REP

• 13,322 ESIIDs stayed and went to different REP– 159,066 remain for analysis (so far)

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Summary Statistics

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Number of Programs Offered 1 2 3 4 5Number of REPS 10 6 3 1 1

Number of Programs Offered by REP

Program Codes Unused CodesRTP Real Time Pricing CPP Critical Peak PricingBI Block & Index FO Financial OptionPR Peak Rebate4CP Four Coincident PeakTOU Time of Use/Thermal Storage/Distributed GenerationOLC Other Direct Load ControlOTH Other Voluntary Demand Response Product

Summary Statistics

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4CP BI OLC OTH PR RTP TOU TotalESIID Count 10 22,947 10,071 733 1,877 4,105 117,570 157,313 REP Count 3 14 2 3 2 12 4 21

ESIIDs Participating in Only One Program

REP 4CP-OLC BI-4CP BI-OLC PR-OLC PR-TOU PR-TOU-OLC RTP-BI TOU-OLC Total1 28 28 2 2 4 3 9 3 19 19 4 267 158 31 13 469 5 2 1290 1,292

Total 2 23 3 267 158 31 2 1,303 1,817

Summary Statistics

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prof_typetotal 4CP BI OLC OTH PR RTP TOU

BUSHILF 3,215 2,688 110 417 BUSHIPV 1 1

BUSIDRRQ 1,806 10 1,262 36 32 466 BUSLOLF 1,983 1,075 1 108 17 768 14 BUSLOPV 15 2 13

BUSMEDLF 11,101 9,062 2 383 3 1,555 96 BUSMEDPV 6 1 5 BUSNODEM 8,320 7,456 2 76 5 604 177 BUSNODPV 3 1 2 BUSOGFLT 1,494 1,404 90 NMLIGHT 1 1 RESHIPV 148 4 2 142 RESHIWD 5 2 3 RESHIWR 58,455 4,224 9 768 50 53,404 RESLOPV 224 6 1 217 RESLOWD 1 1 RESLOWR 70,535 5,829 11 1,049 149 63,497

total 157,313 10 22,947 10,071 733 1,877 4,105 117,570

program_typeESIIDs Participating in Only One Program

Summary Statistics

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Program Start Year total none <= 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

<= 2002 22 22 2003 - 2004 1 1 2005 1 1 2006 11 1 9 1 2007 69 54 1 6 8 2008 69 46 3 2 6 6 3 2 1 2009 906 59 5 1 1 4 5 2 177 266 158 224 4 2010 6,462 10 29 2 1 6 6 3 1,065 2,604 1,080 1,621 35 2011 10,705 29 89 5 2 5 10 4 5 1,201 4,409 4,230 693 23 2012 96,482 57 397 20 10 21 38 12 20 8,775 32,413 36,410 18,183 126 2013 44,338 74 527 29 25 50 38 19 26 3,286 12,831 14,759 11,322 1,352

total 159,066 171 1,234 65 40 91 102 57 58 14,504 52,523 56,637 32,044 1,540

IDR Start Year