Japan’s Strategy for Mitigating Global Warming

Yoichi KayaResearch Institute of Innovative

Technology for the Earth ( RITE )

Contents

１．What is RITE?

2. Short term strategy: Kyoto protocol

3. Medium term strategy: new agreement?

4. Long term strategy: non carbon energy

What is RITE

1. Established in 19902. Employees about 1903. Main sponsor government of Japan4. Size of annual budget 4 – 5 billion Yen3. Objective

Study on measures for mitigating climate change and related technologies

Industry

transport

commercial

households

Fig. Demand structure of Japan:2004

transport

commercial

household

industry

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

indu

stry

tran

spor

t

commer

ce

hous

ehold

tota

l CO2

2005

Kyoto plan

% increase after 1990

Fig.1.1 CO2 in Japan: Present status and 2010 target

0.85

0.9

0.95

1

1.05

1.1

1.15

'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05

ton-km

Cargo ton-km1990=1

Fig. Trends of Cargo transport in Japan – 1995-2005 -

Fig. CO2 emission in households- 2004 trends, Japan -

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

heating

cool ing

hot water

cooking

lights etc

heat ing

cooling

hot water

cooking

lights/app liance

heating

lights/home appliancesshare in 1990

2004/1990% increase

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

'02 '03 '04 '08 '10

buildings

houses

Fig. percentage of those satisfying insulation standard- Buildings and houses newly built since 002 in Japan -

%

houses

buildings

CO2 emission in commercial sector-2004 trends, Japan -

offices

sales

hotels

schools

hospitals

others

05

1015

2025

3035

4045

50

offices

sa lesschools

CO2

area

share in 1990

2004/1990%increaseoffices

sales

Issues in the government planfor achieving Kyoto target

1. How to limit energy consumption in household and commercial sectors?household / wholesale and retail sales

only regulartory measures ? then what measures ?

2. How to reduce CO2/ energy in power sector?improvement in operation rates of nuclear power ?reduction in use of coal fired plants ?

Limits of Kyoto protocol

1. Participationlimiting GHG emission:

only one third of the world2. Character of the target

macroscopic numerical target of a country--- government can regulate small energy

consumers’ behavior?

Energy conservation

1. Most effectiveIn 20th century : rates of change

C/E : - 0.3% / y < E/G: - 0.9% / y decarbonization energy conservation

2. Applicable to all countries : beneficial in costs3. Ways of energy conservation

1) improvement in efficiencies of processes / machines2) cascade use of energy in various systems

METI’s long term forecast in 2004

1. Energy demand will peak between 2020 and 2030 mainly due to decrease in population.

2. Energy conservation will advance and give rise to further reduction in CO2 emission.

3. Further expansion of nuclear power is expected.

Future of Population in Japan

126,926

117,580

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

千人

高位推計中位推計低位推計

2000年

2030年

ピーク高位推計　2009年中位推計　2006年低位推計　2004年

99

121115

161

129

110

129

97106

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

年度

90年

度=10

0産業：鉱工業生産指数

家庭：世帯数

業務：業務床面積

旅客：人キロ

貨物：トンキロ

commercial

Person-kmNo. of households

Industrial production index

Ton km

Future activities in Japan: METI’s forecast

259

258

276

274

324

240

250

260

270

280

290

300

310

320

330

340

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

年度

百万

t-C

レファレンスケース

（上段）省エネ進展＋原子力Lowケース（下段）省エネ進展ケース

（上段）省エネ進展＋経済成長High＋原子力Lowケース（下段）省エネ進展＋経済成長High

METI forecast: CO2 emission in Japan

reference

Accelerated E conservation

+ modest nuclear

Fig.2.1 Penetration Share of Energy Efficient Technologies in Iron & Steel Industry in 2000

Source: Estimates by RITE from data of reports from IISI, NEDO, etc.

When the installation capacities of energy efficient technologies are estimated from various literatures, the installation shares are large in Japan.Detailed bottom-up modeling is needed to evaluate the effects of technology diffusions.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Continuouscasting

COG recovery LDG recovery CDQ TRT

Sha

re o

f fac

ility

in to

tal B

OF

stee

l pro

duct

ion

(%)

Japan Korea EU (15) US China India

Alternative idea about the future action for mitigating climate change

1. Multi-nation orientedNOT UN orientedvoluntary consortium of large countriesex. Asia Pacific Partnership, G-8

2. Action orientedenergy conservation for developing countriesrenewables in the long term

280

380

450

500

550

CO2ppm

Preindustrial level

Present level

EU 2C proposal, 50% prob.

Lovelock, collapse of seaweedsStern Review

THC collapse, 5-10%

Fig.CO2 concentration in the atmosphere

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200

CO2 concentrations (ppmv)

Prob

abili

ty o

f TH

C c

olla

pse

(%)

Murphy(2004)Annan(2006)Hegerl(2006)

Fig. Possibility of the Collapse of Thermohaline Circulation (THC)

ｐｐｍ

CO2 concentration in the air

Fig. CO2 emission for stabilizing its concentration in the airSource: IPCC TAR technical summary

550ppm

Presentlevel

Reforestation

CO2

Sequestration

Nuclear Power

OtherRenew. Energy

Photovoltaics

Fuel Switching

Energy Saving

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year

Car

bon

emis

sion

s an

d re

duct

ions

(GtC

/yr)

Energy SavingFuel SwitchingPhotovoltaicsOther Renewable EnergyNuclear PowerCO2 SequestrationReforestationNet CO2 Emission

among Fossil Fuels

Net Carbon Emissionsin 550ppmv Case

Net Carbon Emissionsin Reference Case

Technological Options for 550 Technological Options for 550 ppmvppmv StabilizationStabilization

Efforts for decarbonization1. Energy conservation

industries / transportationhouses and buildings

2. Non carbon primary energy 1) nuclear power 2) renewablesa. wind power / photovoltaicsb. remote hydro - space solar (SSPS)c. biomass d. ambient resources – geoheat

3. CO2 capture and storage (CCS)

Future key issues on nuclear power

Basis: Nuclear is almost indispensable in decarbonized future.

1. How to scrap and build present reactors?ex. Japanese case ( see the figure )

2. How and where to dispose nuclear wastes?

3. How to improve public acceptance?

0 20 40 60 80 100

USA

UK

Germany

Finland

Japan

Switzerland

Korea

Sweden

Belgium

France

nuclear

％

Fig. Share of nuclear in power supply (kwh、2001)

World average

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34

capacity

104 kw

yearFig. Age structure of Japanese nuclear power plants

２０１０２０２０２０３０４０ years

old

Future of Renewables

1. Wind power / photovoltaics ( WP/PV)recent trends and limitsSSPS: future dream

2. Biomass3. Other renewables: ambient energy sources

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

'95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04

wind power

GW

Fig. 3.1a Total capacity of wind power ( World)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

'96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05

PV

MW

Fig.3.1 b: Recent trends of photovoltaics in the world (capacity )Source: Trends in photovoltaics applications, IEA

3.4 % (2030)0.9 GWJapan

20% ( 2030)3.1 GWDenmark

6 % (2020)6.8 GWUSA

---------8.3 GWSpain

25% (2025)16.6 GWGermany

Future target( % of elec.power )

Capacity(2004)

Table. Present and future target of wind power

1 plant

1,500plants

Fig. time variability of outputs of wind power(Germany)

Limits of WP / PVdue to output changeability

1. Their output changeability innevitably requires installation of those power plants which adjust their outputs so as to satisfy the condition

total supply = total demand

2. Facility costs of these power plants are additional costs of the grid solely due to introduction of WP/PV. = too heavy burden

→ capacity of WP/PV << grid capacity

Novel renewables in the long term

1. Requirements1) large scale2) outputs are stable in time

2. Future candidates1) remote large scale hydro2) space solar power system (SSPS)

Inst. for unmanned SpaceExperiment Free Flyer, Japan 2003

Source11.6 cents / kwhPower cost

Space facilities 5,800M$Transportation 6,800Other 20,100

Costs

Rectenna 12.5 km2Earth surface facility

microwavePower transmission

Solar cell- magnetron1GW, 2.6km×2.4km

Power generator

Geostational earth orbit(36,000km high)

Location of the orbitTable: Outline of SSPS

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

UK Canada Germany USA Japan

heat ratio

Fig. Share of heat in residential energy demand

How to satisfy residential heat demand

1．Passive use of solar powerex. Passive house in Germany

2. Active use of solar powerintroduction of solar heater,etc.

3. Utilization of ambient energy resourcesas low temp. heat source of heat pump

P0 Heat demand D

Ph

αe COP low temp.ambient energy sources

D ＝α・COP・P (1)

Energy gain from ambient energy sources

F = P０－Ph = ( 1/αh - 1/ αe・COP ) (2)

Utilization of low temp. geoheat in residential sector

Primary E αh

conversion tosecondary E

powergeneration

heatpump

２００Japan

９．０００France

４２．０００Switzerland

５０，０００Germany

５００，０００USA

Number of houses utilizingGeoheat

Table: Distribution of Houses utilizing Geoheat

Potential of low temp. geothermal E- share in residential E, Japan -

1. COP of heat pumpgeothermal: 10 degrees in Celsium ( Sapporo, 10m deep )

supply temp. Theoretical real 30 deg. ( room?) 15 8 ?50 deg. ( water?) 8 6 ?

2. Availability of low temp. geothermal ( potential )Share in primary energy in Japan

residential commercial totalCOP=5 3.7 % 2.5 % 6.2 %COP=10( heating) 4.3 3.0 7.3

Concluding remarks (1)

1. Achievement of Kyoto target is not an easy task for Japan, and desperate efforts particularly in commercial and household sectors are required.

2. Multi-country action oriented approach should be promoted for long term GHG reduction, in parallel with Kyoto protocol .

3. Energy conservation is always one of the most effective measures for reducing CO2 emission.

Concluding remarks (2)

4. The role of nuclear power will be much larger, not only in Japan but also all over the world.

5. Present renewable technologies are important but we should notice that their capacity when connected to the grid is limited due to their output changeability.

6. Novel large scale renewables such as SSPS should be developed in the long term.

7. CCS is a useful but technology bridging the age of fossil fuel use and decarbonized society.