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Jake Bernstein
ETS “Lucky” 13 www.jakebernstein.com
Profits from Clarity Saturday 29 October 2011
Session 1 of 8 Welcome new Attendees What we will do and how and why Methods and Signals Review of Seasonals for October November Seasonals: Futures, Spreads Friday-Monday Gold Pattern and Trade Euro FX Day of Week Trade Year End Pattern Psychology Corner Bonehead Moves Account Review And more
© 2011 by Jake Bernstein 800-678-5253 831-430-0600
My mission
Has taken me all over the world
What I found and why I care
The bad news about trading with facts –
accountability
The good news about trading on opinions –
everyone can find an excuse
The bad new about trading on opinions -
excuses don’t make money
The good news about trading on facts – facts
don’t lie and they are somewhat scientific
What we will do and WHY?
HOW to find your trades daily
The Friday - Monday Gold trade continued
2 NEW Day of Week trades - rules and application
Fewer markets... but MORE FOCUS
The BEST SPREADS - low risk, high potential reviewed each week
The DECISION MAKING process: what, when and how
COT major changes review... every 2 weeks
Seasonal trades for the week and month
Position sizing: when to increase - when to decrease
Markets and methods
Psychology Corner – Psychoanalysts Couch
Bonehead Moves
Goals and Procedures To provide you with a solid, 100% clear and
objective rule-based approaches to trading with
consistency and reality
To avoid anything that requires judgment or
interpretation, perception or opinions
To show you specific trading methods, systems,
risk management procedures, and profit maximizing
strategies
To do so in a way that assists you in becoming an
independent and professional trader or investor
To show you my decision-making process and
many of my trades based on the rules presented
during the sessions
To show you that my highly researched and rule-
based strategies are effective moneymaking tools
that you can use in virtually any market and in
virtually any timeframe
To answer your questions as best I can within the
context of my methodologies
To explore and explain the behavioral and/or
psychological aspects and limitations of trading
To examine and find solutions for specific errors
that traders commit which limit profits and
increased losses
To give you a solid structure within which all
trading decisions should be made
All of this based on my 43+ years of trading
Methods and Systems
Here is a synopsis of the methods and systems I
will use and teach and review
MAC moving average channel – for position trades
and swing trades in stocks and futures
8 OC: short-term timing method for stocks and
futures
MD power of momentum for entering trades in any
timeframe at or near significant tops or bottoms
Seasonal trades in stock futures and spreads
Specific day of week patterns such as the Friday
Monday gold and Thursday Friday European
currency trades
I will make specific trades based on these methods
in one or several of my trading accounts and I will
show you ahead of time (as often as possible) what
I plan to do, why, the rules, procedures, the risk, the
profit maximizing strategy and more
Tuesday through Thursday I will send you a report
that updates positions and/or changes in trades
again based on what I will teach you
I will discuss account equity during the session but
my goal is to accept the challenge that faces all
traders who seek to be successful in today’s volatile
markets. In other words my focus will be on
accurate trades risk management and profit
maximizing
There will be no hocus-pocus, “looks like”, analysis,
Fibonacci, Gann, Elliott wave, market geometry,
astrology, Mayan calendar, Nostradamus
prophecies, Magic numbers, Kabbalah, or other
rubbish that is nonspecific and non-testable – this
includes traditional chart patterns and formations
which simply stated just do not work
Finally, my job is first and foremost to manage risk.
If I am effectively managing my risk I will end up
making money by following the profit maximizing
strategy.
Session ground rules
Please be on time for every session. I will usually
begin exactly on time
Please ask me questions if anything is unclear.
Jump in at any time. If I can’t answer you at that
moment I will get to your question as soon as
possible. If the question is too long to answer in the
session or if it is not related specifically to the topic I
will ask you to e-mail me your question
I ask you please to not engage in too much chatter
with other attendees while I’m doing a presentation
since this can be distracting to all of us
Please do not be afraid to ask questions. These
sessions are truly all about you and making you
better at what you do
All sessions are recorded and available to you
usually within 24 hours after we end
I ask you please do not share this information with
anyone who is not a paid client since this will not
only be unfair to me but may also hurt you. This
information is protected by copyright and I will
aggressively pursue anyone who violates my
copyright privileges and rights
In the rare event that our Internet connection
temporarily fails please wait and I will come back to
you as soon as possible
If you have any technical questions or need
technical assistance with your subscription or
connection, login, etc. please send a private
message to either Marilyn or Ray who work with
me.
The accounts
A few of my stock accounts
The trades I want you to learn how to do
The constant rubbish and nonsense we have
subjected to all day and sometimes all night
long…
“We feel as if the market is top
heavy here but if we cross below
the 200 day MA* then we might
correct to support levels if the
risk on trading strategy returns
but overall we believe that there
is value near current levels if
Fed policy remains as is”
Track Record 200 day MA in S&P
200 Day MA IBM
SBUX has pricing power which
makes it a good candidate in spite of
the current rise in coffee prices. We
would be buyers on a scale down
basis as we enter a period of
stronger demand and seasonal
strength. Additions to the menu will
boost earnings unless of course we
enter an economic recession in
which case all bets are off…(blah
blah blah blah bs)
What increase?
Suddenly…Mr Cramer is a chartist
(Paraphrase)
This is a head-and-shoulders pattern…great
chart formation used by professional
chartists..a big money maker…one of the
most accurate chart patterns
problem - no firm rules – no follow through
stop – no profit maximizing strategy – where
are the back tests?
The Model – More Details
Patterns + Process + Persistence = Profits
SETUP TRIGGER Follow Thru
© 2010 Jake Bernstein www.trade-futures.com
28
Tested and
proven
accurate
100% objective
and rule based
– not subject
to
interpretation
No myths or
magical
mumbo jumbo
No “looks like’
Step by step
Clear checklist
Procedure
Implementation
Triggers
Exact risk based
on market
behavior
Exit strategy
Profit
maximizing
strategy
Know your odds
Drawdown
Max cons loss
Max cons profit
Max % risk/trade
Patience
Don’t MM!
Less is more
Limit media
Isolation
Chat room NO
The dead man
concept
Set a daily goal?
ABSURD!
Have to be BIG
Remove some
Diversify
Profits create
confidence
which then will
Foster discipline
and more
profits!
Platinum - Gold
What do you see now?
Some of what I did
42.10
324.72
1310
417.12
324
41.10
Compare: Fri EuroFX
C>O Thurs
Buy Fri 2 ticks above Thurs high
C<O Thurs
Sell Fri 40 ticks below Thurs low
Exit FPO or stop loss
$ stop on long and short
2 ,5 0 0
5 ,0 0 0
7 ,5 0 0
1 0 ,0 0 0
1 2 ,5 0 0
1 5 ,0 0 0
B y Y e a rb y P r o f it
Pr
of
it
2 0 0 2 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 4 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1
Fri Mon Gold Rules Reviewed
Setup: Weekly trend in gold up
Buy Fri open (Thurs night)
Stop largest range bar last 10
Initial target same as stop
Exit Fri close 1/3
Exit Mon open 1/3 (Sunday night)
Exit or TS Mon close
FMG trade WEEKLY TREND +
FMG example
FMG Trade
A few stock trades as
examples of methods
LIZ 2 Sep
My next victim (2 Sep)…why?
Long down trend
Quality stock
Excellent earnings power
Forefront of trading technology
Flash and high frequency trading
Let’s look at the chart
WAIT FOR TRIGGER!
Let’s take a look at a few situations: MD
KC MAC
KC followed through
NFLX what do you see?
Psychology Corner Why do so traders go for the quick profit
while they ride their losses until they grown
hair on them?
1) Long term pain is easier to adapt to – boiling
water experiment
2) Ego loss – Freudian view
3) Instant gratification
4) Fear that a profit will disappear quickly
5) Need to win to overcome frustration
6) SOLUTIONS:
Bonehead moves…
What’s that?
My talk at CSTA last week…someone
approached me after the meeting
Here’s what he said
October futures seasonals
Are you ready?
For the highest accuracy trade of the year?
What’s normal?
October futures seasonals
Friday
Nov seasonals
Spreads
JRCC
Mentoring appointment interview http://www.comtrade1.com/letter/
ETS sessions are recorded
I can be reached at 800-678-5253 or 831-430-0600
Email me if you have questions:
Best of trading
Jake Bernstein
© 2011 by Jake Bernstein
www.trade-futures.com 800-678-5253 * 831-430-0600