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• Jack is currently performing travel demand model forecasting for Florida’s Turnpike. Specifically he works on toll road project forecasting to produce traffic and revenue estimates which are in turn utilized by Turnpike’s finance department to conclude feasibility of a proposed project. Project levels range from a basic feasibility analysis to an investment grade level study.
Analysis Tool for Model Output to Analysis Tool for Model Output to Evaluate Express Toll Lanes Evaluate Express Toll Lanes
FeasibilityFeasibility
Analysis Tool for Model Output to Analysis Tool for Model Output to Evaluate Express Toll Lanes Evaluate Express Toll Lanes
FeasibilityFeasibility
Jack Klodzinski, PhDFlorida’s Turnpike Enterprise
Tom Adler, PhDResource Systems Group, Inc.
William T. Olsen, PE, PhDFlorida’s Turnpike Enterprise
Introduction• Regional models used for producing travel
demand forecasts• Interpretation of traffic volume estimates • Daily Vs. Time of Day • Estimating toll rates
and traffic for a proposed toll facility – By section– By hour
Methodology
OUTPUT: Estimated Hourly
Traffic and Toll Rates
ELTOD Spreadsheet Application
INPUT: Hourly Traffic &
Distribution, Facility Geometry, Max/Min Toll Rates.
INPUT: Run Travel
Demand Network Model to Produce
Estimated Corridor Volumes
Development
• Estimate of split between General Use (GU) & Toll lanes using a supply/demand equilibrium process – Supply: Akcelik curves for travel time estimates – Demand: Toll Choice Model
Volume/Delay Curves
The Akcelik curve has been found to better represent traffic The Akcelik curve has been found to better represent traffic in corridors with over capacity conditions. in corridors with over capacity conditions.
Development
• Hourly toll rates by V/C ratio & specified limits – Determined by a power curve, exponent (input
parameter), and travel times – Limits are pre-determined minimum & maximum
rates
• Easily modified to represent alternative dynamic tolling policies
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
To
ll R
ate
pe
r M
ile
($
/mi)
V/C value
LOS D Threshold for Maximum Rate Charged (min toll = $0.05)
Example of Pricing Policy Curves
Parameters with min/max toll rates with selected EXP values and LOS E limit
Traffic Volume Served Increases
Revenue Potential increases
These curves are defined
by the selected EXP
value.
Development: Primary Input
• Total daily traffic, hourly distribution (by direction), geometry of facility
• Geometry includes: section lengths, free flow speed, lane capacity, PCE factor, # of lanes (GU & Toll), max/min toll rates
• Secondary Input are scale factors • Spreadsheet format with calculations
between supply & demand done iteratively to achieve user equilibrium
Example of Hourly Distribution by Roadway Segment and Direction
Plot shows ADT for 24 hourly intervals for each count station on a portion of the Interstate 75 corridor.
These curves represent a
section of I-75 for one
direction.
Application
Florida District 1: Lee & Collier County Express Lanes
on Interstate 75
Lee/Collier County Networks
I-75 Corridor
Gulf of Mexico
To Miami
Toll Collection Location
SuccessfulApplication
!
Application Menu
Application: Input
Toll Choice Model
Pricing Curve Values
V/C and Other Values
Application: Input O-D Table from
Demand Model
Application: Hourly Output by Section
• Traffic Volumes (also by time period)• V/C Ratios• Toll Rates & Projected Revenue• Travel Times• Link Speeds• Cost per Trip Summary• Results Display (network layout)• Model Run Summary
Application: Sample Output - XLPeak Periods
of Hourly Volume and
toll rates.
Hourly Volume and toll rates, by section & direction
Application: Sample Output - XL
Graphical Representation of Hourly Volume and toll rates, by section
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24Hour Ending
Xpress Lanes Volume by Section (Northbound)Section 1
Section 2
Section 3
Section 4
Section 5
Section 6
Section 7
Section 8
NORTHBOUND VOLUME
Sample Network Display of ResultsLocal
Streets
General Use Lanes
Express Toll Lanes
Slip Ramps
Example of a Potential Project
3 YEARS
7 ALTERNATIVES
21 INITIAL MODEL RUNS
Complete Network Model Runs Needed
1 MODEL
RUN
Example of a Potential Project
NETWORK MODELING(4 periods)
SPREADSHEET MODELING
(24 hour periods)
1 YEAR
Model Runs Needed to Estimate an Optimal Toll Rate for One Alternative
9 SECTIONS
1 YEAR
9 SECTIONS
13 TOLL RATES
117 MODEL RUNS
OR
…and this doesn’t consider the pricing policy available in the ELTOD!
Express Lanes Time of Day (ELTOD) Model Future Enhancements
• Validation Update• Expanded O/D matrix input • Toll Choice Model update• Additional parameter control • Peak Spreading • Feedback loop with network model• Reporting options• Additional output data
