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Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study 35
IV. Defining Future MobilityConditions
4.1 Travel Demand ForecastingThe City of Houston and the Houston-Galveston Area Council (H-GAC), through an
inter-local agreement, conducted the travel demand forecasting within the study area. The
Travel Demand Model (the model) is a useful tool for comparing alternative transportation
scenarios. The model assists in understanding the manner in which future population and
employment will cause traffic to grow. The intent is to better understand the dynamics
of a complex network of streets and to test what-if scenarios of different transportation
solutions.
The City, H-GAC, and the project team worked together to update the 2035 demographic
forecasts. The updates included existing building permits, development trends, and traffic
studies.
Forecast Results - The ScenariosThe study team created four initial scenarios for the Heights and Northside sub-areas.
These scenarios were designed to test big ideas from local stakeholders, professional
staff, and the consultant team. The different scenarios include:
• Scenario 1 (Base Build-Out)
• Scenario 2 (Couplets)
• Scenario 3 (Capacity Projects)
• Scenario 4 (High Frequency Transit)
• Scenario 5 (Recommendations)
The scenarios were analyzed individually to allow for a comparison between different
concepts. Ultimately, a combined scenario (Scenario 5) represents final recommendations
the project team feels are realistic for implementation. The provided descriptions below
demonstrate what modifications were made within each Scenario. To view final 2035
projection numbers associated with each Scenario, see Appendix E: Travel Demand Model
Results.
Scenario 1 (Base Build-Out)The Base Model scenario assumes the full development of all Major Thoroughfares and
Major Collectors as identified in the 2013 MTFP. The effects of such recommendations
on traffic volumes and congestion levels were evaluated in this scenario. The map of this
scenario is found in Figure 4.1.
Scenario 2 (Couplets)Heights’ area stakeholders requested that 19th/20th Street as well as Heights Boulevard/
Yale Street be tested as potential couplet pairings. Where excess capacity resulted,
stakeholders requested a wider pedestrian realm and safer, buffered bike facilities. The
map of this scenario is shown in Figure 4.2.
Scenario 3 (Capacity Projects)Scenario 3 combines road expansion (as designated by the MTFP) and street reduction
projects. The intent was to create a network that safely and reasonably supported a variety
of mobility uses. This model is a more financially feasible option than the Base Model
Scenario. The map of this scenario is found in Figure 4.3.
36 Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study
Scenario 4 (High Frequency Transit)Scenario 4: This high frequency transit scenario included transit routes which factored
in public input, population growth, job growth, activity centers, and connectivity to other
destinations (such as downtown or the Galleria). The increase in service was modeled by
doubling the service frequency during the peak hours. Non-peak hour headways were also
increased slightly. Ultimately, however, METRO is responsible for the frequency and stop
locations of all City bus routes. The map of this scenario is found in Figure 4.4.
Scenario 5 (Recommendations)These four scenarios were analyzed separately and compared to the 2035 Base Model
as provided by H-GAC (with the new 2035 demographics previously discussed). Scenario
results were then taken to stakeholders for feedback. The provided input and the project
team’s analysis were combined to create Scenario 5. The result is a network of corridors
that acknowledges the need for the expansion as well as the reduction of certain corridors
(Scenario 3), increased High Frequency Transit Options (Scenario 4), and the completion
of key east-west and north-south corridors as depicted on the Major Thoroughfare and
Freeway Plan (Scenario 1). The map is found in Figure 4.5.
Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study 37
AN
TOIN
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Scenario 1 - Build OutInner West Loop Boundary
Heights Boundary
Northwest Boundary
Houston City Limits
Right-of-Way
Park
2 lanes two-way
3 lanes (two-way)
4 lanes (two-way)
6 lanes (two-way)
Access Management
not completed
Freeways
MajorRoads
Railroad
Water
g3,000 0 3,0001,500 Feet
Figure 4.1 SCenario 1: baSe build-out
AN
TOIN
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MA
IN
34TH
43RD
TIDWELL
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11TH
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BREEN
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Scenario 2 - Potential CoupletsInner West Loop Boundary
Heights Boundary
Northwest Boundary
Houston City Limits
Right-of-Way
Park
Couplet
Freeways
Water
Railroad
MajorRoads
Local Street
Private Street
g3,000 0 3,0001,500 Feet
Figure 4.2 SCenario 2: CouPletS
AN
TOIN
E
MA
IN
34TH
43RD
TIDWELL
LITTLE YORK
11TH
SH
EP
HE
RD
BREEN
PINEMONT
T C
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Scenario 3 - Capacity Change ProjectsInner West Loop Boundary
Heights Boundary
Northwest Boundary
Houston City Limits
Right-of-Way
Park
Water
Railroad
Reduce to 2 lanes (one-way)
Reduce to 2 lanes (two-way)
Reduce to 2 lanes with CTL
Reduce to 3 lanes
Reduce to 3 lanes (two-way)
4 lanes (two-way)
Freeways
MajorRoads
g3,000 0 3,0001,500 Feet
AN
TOIN
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MA
IN
34TH
43RD
TIDWELL
LITTLE YORK
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SH
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HE
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RD
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ORIAL
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ER
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MEMORIAL
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GH
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Scenario 4 - High Frequency Transit CorridorsInner West Loop Boundary
Heights Boundary
Northwest Boundary
Houston City Limits
Right-of-Way
Park
High Frequency Transit
Freeways
MajorRoads
Railroad
Water
g3,000 0 3,0001,500 Feet
Figure 4.4 SCenario 4: high FrequenCy tranSitFigure 4.3 SCenario 3: CaPaCity ProJeCtS
38 Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study
14th ST
19th St
DEER
TRA
IL
HA
RD
Y TOLL
LINK RD
OA
K FO
REST
BEVIS ST
BEA
LL ST
KANSAS ST
20TH
11TH
MAIN
SEAM
IST DR
ELLA
WATSO
N ST
STUD
EWO
OD
DU
RH
AM
HEIG
HTS
18TH
PECORE
FULTO
N
KATY
CAVALCADE
43RD
SAN
JAC
INTO
YALE
6TH
LYONS
QUITMAN
LORRAINE
T C
JES
TER
WHITE OAK
PATTON
Boundary
HA
RD
Y
JENSEN
11TH11TH
FULTO
N
YALE
HEIG
HTS
MAIN
18TH
CAVALCADE
MAIN
FRICK
DE SOTO
DEWALT
WAKEFIELD
GU
HN
DE PR
IESTA
LBA
AN
N L
OU
ISE
ELLA
GES
SNER
BLUE BELL
VICTORIA
FAIR
BA
NK
S N H
OU
STON
43RD
34TH
LAN
GFIELD
FALLBROOK
LITTLE YORK
WEST
DERRINGTON
MAIN
ALDINE-WESTERN
PINEMONT
BURLINGTON N
BREEN
CEBRA
RODNEY RAY
AN
TOIN
E
TIDWELL
MOUNT HOUSTON
AIR
LINE
SHEPH
ERD
T. C. JESTER
T C JESTER
PHILLIPINE
FAIRBANKS WHITE OAK
TOMBALL
BIN
GLE
HO
LLIS
TER
HOUSTON ROSSLYN
CROSSTIMBERS
Tomball/SH 249
YALE
GULF BANK
MA
NG
UM
VICTORY
WAT
ON
GA
MONTGOMERY
VETERANS MEMORIAL
PARKER
MOUNT HOUSTON/SH 249
DACOMA
GULF BANK
AN
TOIN
E
TIDWELL
WEST
ELLA
FALLBROOK
AN
TOIN
E
PINEMONT
LITTLE YORK
43RDCROSSTIMBERS
T C
JES
TER
LITTLE YORK LITTLE YORK
GULF BANK
VICTORY
34TH
VICTORY
43RD
WEST
Scenario 5 - Recommended Improvements by 2035Inner West Loop Boundary
Heights Boundary
Northwest Boundary
Houston City Limits
Park
Railroad
Water
!!M METRO Transit Center
!!P METRO Park and Ride
") METRO Proposed LRT Stations
METRO Proposed LRT Alignment
Maintain current number of lanes
To be widened
Reduce number of lanes
New Road
g3,100 0 3,1001,550 Feet
Figure 4.5: SCenario 5 - reCoMMendationS
Houston Mobility: Heights-Northside Study 39
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