Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
ITPM forecast of container Traffic ITPM forecast of container Traffic Far East/ASEAN/PacificFar East/ASEAN/Pacific
DateDate : : 21 November, 201221 November, 2012VenueVenue : : Bangkok, ThailandBangkok, Thailand
Development of an Integrated Transport and Logisticssystem in ASEAN countries and Pacific subregion
Contents
1.1. Economic GrowthEconomic Growth
2.2. Historical Container TrafficHistorical Container Traffic
3.3. Container Traffic ForecastingContainer Traffic Forecasting
4.4. Comparison of Regional Trade Comparison of Regional Trade
ESCAP RegionESCAP Region
ESCAP Region
ESCAPMembers : 53 countriesAssociate Members : 9 countriesHeadquarter : Bangkok, Thailand
Population : 60%GDP : 33%Container Port Volume : 55%
1. Economic GrowthA. GDP Growth Rates(World)
World Financial Crisis
ASEANFinancial Crisis
- 4 -
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook(www.imf.org)
1. Economic GrowthB. GDP Growth Rates(ESCAP)
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook(www.imf.org)
World Financial Crisis
ASEAN Financial Crisis
2. Historical Container Traffic A. Container volume portions of ESCAP(1990-2010)
Source : CI Yearbook 1990~2010
2. Historical Container TrafficB. Far East(1980-2010)
Unit : Million TEU Source: : CI Yearbook 1980~2010
- 7 -
C. ASEAN(1980-2010)
2. Historical Container Traffic
Unit : Million TEU Source: : CI Yearbook 1980~2010
D. Pacific Island(1980-2010)
2. Historical Container Traffic
Unit : 1,000 TEU Source: : CI Yearbook 1980~2010
2. Historical Container TrafficE. Far East & ASEAN(2010)
Source: : CI Yearbook 2010
2. Historical Container TrafficF. Pacific Island(2010)
Source: : CI Yearbook 2010
3. Container Traffic Forecasting
Trade Module
Transpor-tationNetworkModule
PortStrategicPlanningModule
CIY Port DataO-D DataPort share
RoutesService detailsVessel description
Port classTEU/ship-hour
Fleetrequired
Vessel callsat ports
Portthroughputs
Port capacityrequired
Port-to-portcargo flows
Input
Output
A. Methodology : ITPM(Integrated Transport Planning Model)
Population GrowthGlobalizationChina, Russia entering WTO : BRICsGlobal outsourcing : Near SourcingBig, Bigger shipsFuel Costs & Slow steamingInfrastructure development : Port/terminal Growth in Transhipment : 26.7%(2005) 30.1%(2016)
Improvements in supply chain managementFinancial & Economic situation : US, EU & Far East
3. Container Traffic ForecastingB. Seaborne Trade Drivers
Source: :KMI International Seminar, “Outlook of world Economy and Shipping Market 2013”.
3. Container Traffic ForecastingC. World & Far East/ASEAN
Unit : Million TEU Source: Forecasted with ITPM
8.9%
10.3%
8.5%
6.5%
9.5%
3. Container Traffic ForecastingD. World & Pacific Island
Unit : 1,000 TEU Source: Forecasted with ITPM
Unit : 1,000 TEUSource : IPTM
4. Comparison of Regional Trade A. Far East
4.2%4.2%
8.0%
5.2%
4. Comparison of Regional Trade B. ASEAN
Unit : 1,000 TEUSource : IPTM
2.0%1.6%
0.9%
5.5%
C . Pacific Island
Unit : 1,000 TEUSource : IPTM
0.7%
1.2%
4.2%
4. Comparison of Regional Trade
D. Others
Unit : 1,000 TEUSource : IPTM
4.3%
-1.2%
2.6%
4. Comparison of Regional Trade
F. Region Trade
4. Comparison of Regional Trade
18.9M
3.7M
Far East
ASEAN
15.7M16.8M
28.5M
4.5M
Far East
ASEAN
26.9M25.4M
2010 2020
Upgrade Shipping Network- Develope Scenario : Bigger Vessel, Panama Canal Expansion, Cascade, New RouteData Collection- Trade data(Volume, Amount)- Port Traffic(EX/IM, TS, Do)- Container Trade dataCooperation- Data collection and Feedback
F. Region TradeCooperation
Further Study
