1TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

Is the Gautrain the solution?

Romano Del MistroTRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

2TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

Six objectives

• To promote economic growth, job creation and SMMEs

• To relieve congestion• To demonstrate

government’s commitment to public transport

• To restructure the apartheid city

• To give expression to an integrated transport plan

• To improve environmental conditions

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Public debate…

• Good public participation programme, became focussed on NIMBY

• Alternative modes were not debated sufficiently

• The best alternative needs to be shown to be the best

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Inadequate debate leads to …

• Incorrect public perception of professional competence– Loss of public credibility

in and support for future initiatives aimed at sustainable transport

• Waste of resources

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Contents

• Looking for an alternative

• Some details

• A question of scale

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Public transport alternatives

• Not limited to current experience

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This is also a bus service

• Seoul• Forty

kilometres of dedicated median lanes on major trunk lines

ITDP, June2005; Seoul

8TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

This is also a bus service

• Jakarta• 6,000 pass/h

per direction.

• Articulated buses can boost capacity to 9,600

ITDP, January2005; Jakartal

9TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

This is also a bus service

• Mexico City – 250 000 daily

passengers

10TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

This is also a bus service

• Bogota• By 2015, TransMilenio: • 5 million pass / day • 388 km of busways

• 37 km of trunk lines• 57 stations• 28 pedestrian

overpasses• 4 terminals of

integration• Control centre• Total cost

US$ 198.8 million

11TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

This is also a bus service

• Curitiba

12TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

This is also a bus service

• Eindhoven– Phileas

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Choosing an alternative

• Capacity• Cost per passenger• Capital cost• Speed• Appropriate

technology

• Safety• Comfort• Convenience• Image

– National Pride– To attract car user– To promote public

transport

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Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction)

• Maximum link volume – 7400 (2000)– 13800 (2016)

Ex Brocklebank et al (2001)

– Estimated at:– 5000 (2005)– 5400 (2010)

Ex Corporate.gautrain.co.za

• Minibuses 5400 / 15 seats =

367 trips

• Buses

5400 / 50 seats=

110 trips

15TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

Choosing …. Capacity (Pk hr/direction)

Lloyd Wright, 2003

I will come back to passenger estimate

Line TypeActual capacity

(pass/ hour/ direction)

Sao Paulo 9 de julho Busway 35,000

Bogota TransMilenio Busway 33,000Porto Alegre l Busway 28,000

Curitiba Eixo Sul Busway 15,100Bangkok BTS Rail metro 50,000Mexico Line B Rail metro 39,300

Strasbourg Light rail 18,000

16TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

Choosing …. Cost/passenger

Subsidy = Cost - fare

Additional subsidy =

(R51-R36) *5400/.11*250 = R184 million /year (R331m?)

Pk hr pass/direction 5500Quality BusL 24Quality BusH 36"Gautrain" 51

Total Cost/pass (R/pass)

17TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

Choosing…. Capital cost

HIGHER RISK WHEN INVESTING IN RAIL

Used this value; not R7, R8-, R12-, R20-, or R24- billion)

Capital cost (Rm)Quality BusL 1476

Quality BusH 3460

"Gautrain" 10304

18TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

Choosing…. Speed

• High speed rail– 62 km – 35 minutes, plus– 10 minutes to station– 5 minutes wait– 10 minutes to work

= 60 minutes

• Slower mode:– 62 km – 44 minutes, plus– 10 minutes to station– 5 minutes wait– 10 minutes to work

= 69 minutes

IS IT WORTH IT?

19TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

Some details… Estimating the trips

• Peak hour passengers/ direction

(1+1+1+1)*800 +(3+2)*2200 = 14200 cars• 1,3 pass/vehicle and 20% to Gautrain = 3692 pass/hr

High values require more explanation of modelling

?1 1 13 2 1

20TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

Some details…. Capital paid

• “Generally the capital costs are paid by government, therefore only operating costs should be considered in selecting the mode.”

• A political decision to pay for some of the capital costs.

• But we (passengers or citizens) pay for all the costs; either as fares or as taxes.

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A question of scale

• To ensure ridership – Densify corridor wrt

housing and employment?

– Delay new freeway construction?

• Buses can carry over 20 000 peak hour pass/direction

• Creates a precedent for longer travel distances.– Average = 20 km

Website

– Average = 35 kmBrocklebank et al (2001 )

22TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

A question of scale

• What if only 2200 peak hour pass/direction?– (114-56) *2200 /.11*250

= R290 million/year (or R430million/year)– R 321 million/year subsidy for 16000 peak hour bus

passengers / direction in Greater Johannesburg.

• What percentage risk in a Public Private Partnership is fair to government? – R18b / R20b?; R10b/ R20b?; R5b/R20b?

23TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

A question of equity

• .

• R12 billion plus on the relatively more affluent.

• What is being spent on the deteriorating rail network?

•

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A question of objectives

• Define objectives– National pride– Reviving inner city

property values – Greater development

plans?– Region must have its

train!– Degree of mobility

Shanghai MagLev

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A question of open debate

• Test modelling assumptions in open debate– Alternatively, ask the private sector what it will

ask for it to take 100% of the risk.

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A question of alternatives

• Test transport alternatives– Rail high speed– Integrated Rail SA– At-grade bus

• Can always be upgraded

– Mixed grade bus

• Even revisit corridor development goals

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Conclusion

• Public transport services that are– Safe, convenient,

reliable, accessible and affordable

• Must consider all alternatives to implement the best solution

Gauteng to follow up Car Free Day with indaba

Saturday October 22, 2005 09:16 - (SA)

Gauteng transport MEC Ignatius Jacobs will follow up Car Free Day with a commuter indaba as a step to champion commuter rights, his office announces ………………

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Thank you

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29TRANSPORT PORTFOLIO COMMITTEE 9 NOVEMBER 2005

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Total cost/passenger (R/trip)

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Operating Cost/passenger (R/trip)

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