Is Jordan Doomed? Yes

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Is Jordan Doomed? YesAuthor(s): Rita E. HauserSource: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 1 (Jan. - Feb., 1994), pp. 178-179Published by: Council on Foreign RelationsStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20045904 .Accessed: 10/06/2014 03:14Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at .http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp .JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range ofcontent in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new formsof scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. .Council on Foreign Relations is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to ForeignAffairs.http://www.jstor.org This content downloaded from 193.104.110.123 on Tue, 10 Jun 2014 03:14:40 AMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditionshttp://www.jstor.org/action/showPublisher?publisherCode=cfrhttp://www.jstor.org/stable/20045904?origin=JSTOR-pdfhttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsphttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jspLetters to the Editor sion that the key lesson from Chile is that "the withering away of the state" is the necessary condition for economic progress. I go further than he does with respect to foreign aid. I believe along with Lord Peter Bauer and others that foreign aid has almost invariably been harmful to the country receiving it pre cisely because it tends to retard or pre vent "the withering away of the state." MILTON FRIEDMAN Senior Research Fellow, the Hoover Insti tution on War, Revolution, and Peace IS JORDAN DOOMED? YES To the Editor: Lawrence Tal ("Is Jordan Doomed?" September/October 1993) presents a sober and clear analysis of the risks fac ing Jordan should the PLO-Israeli accords eventuate in a Palestinian state. Most observers, including Israel's cur rent leaders, contemplate that very prospect as the likely outcome of the recent decisions, despite public rhetoric to the contrary. A mini-Palestine, demil itarized and economically integrated with, if not dependent upon, Israel will likely emerge and seek to confederate with Jordan, uniting Palestinians on both banks of the Jordan River. That the prospect of confederation is less than appealing to Jordan's Hashem ites has received little serious attention outside Jordan. Tal renders a real service by posing the question of whether such a development would doom Jordan as we know it. While he consistently argues that a confederation of Palestine and Jor dan will come about, with the Palestinian component clearly the stronger, Tal pulls his punch with a sanguine conclusion that somehow or other the Jordanian state will remain intact. It is difficult to share this conclusion. The likely prospect following confedera tion is a democratic, mainly secular gov ernment in which the Hashemite crown would reign rather than rule. Palestini ans' economic acumen, aided by billions of dollars in international assistance and direct Israeli involvement, will assure their place as the dominant demographic group. The most startling statistic Tal cites is that, even today, Jordan's per capita GNP is lower than that of either the West Bank or Gaza. Moreover, substan tial expatriate Palestinian capital and entrepreneurship will be deployed to assist Palestinian projects. As Tal notes, a diversion of Palestinian funds from Amman to West Bank financial institu tions would send Jordan's economy into severe crisis. Nor does it seem likely that King Hussein can slow the forces of democra tization in Jordan, as he now seems to acknowledge in going ahead with sched uled parliamentary elections. When the Palestinian dimension emerges more clearly after final status is reached, politi cal parties attuned to a Palestinian agenda will likely assert themselves and eventually dominate the Jordanian politi cal process, especially after King Hussein passes from the scene. Jordanian nation alism is strongly tied to the person of King Hussein. A democratic confederation, with full Hashemite participation, should be encouraged. The merger of Palestine and Jordan offers the chance for a secular, economically prosperous entity to flour ish, defying the long-held view that [178] FOREIGN AFFAIRS- Volume y3 No. 1 This content downloaded from 193.104.110.123 on Tue, 10 Jun 2014 03:14:40 AMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditionshttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jspLetters to the Editor democracy cannot take root in the Arab world. That prospect is important for Arabs, and it is also the surest guarantee of peaceful relations with Israel. RITA E. HAUSER President, The H?user Foundation INFLUENTIAL ARABISTS? To the Editor: William Quandt in his review of my book, TheArabists (November/Decem ber 1993), accuses me of "ignoring their [the Arabists'] successes." Pages 207-229 of my book are solely devoted to docu menting the rescue of 12,000 Ethiopian Jews carried out by two Arabic-speaking Foreign Service officers. Pages 267 and 301 document the Arabist role in freeing an American from an Iraqi prison, sur viving an embassy siege in Kuwait, and carrying out the 1988 re-flagging opera tion in the Gulf "without a hitch." Page 137 covers how, without making conces sions, Arabists preserved relations with Saudi Arabia. Page 160 and a caption plate mention the successful evacuation of Americans carried out by Arabist Talcott Seelye. Pages 232-233 cover the Arabist role in uncovering Saudi missiles capable of reaching Israel. This is in addition to the feats of heroism by Arabist missionaries in the nineteenth century that I document. Quandt says I quote "approvingly" a negative statement about Arabists by Francis Fukuyama. On page seven of the book, immediately after the Fukuyama quotation, I quote Nicholas Veliotis, who "sharply disagrees" with Fukuyama. Quandt says that my "prototypical figure of the early Arabist, Loy Hender son, was not an Arabist at all." Indeed, on page 98 I write that Henderson "did not speak Arabic and spent only two of his ninety-three years living in the Arab world." My point, made absolutely clear in the book, was that because of both his harsh anti-Israel views and his loyalty to the Foreign Service, Henderson, despite his not being an Arabist, ironically became a prototype. Quandt says I "have made no effort to interview [Ambassador April] Glaspie." From June 1991 through November 19921 made repeated attempts to convince Glaspie to meet with me for a lengthy profile of her version of events, as well as her diplomatic life prior to Iraq. These attempts were made in three phone con versations with Glaspie, in letters, faxes and a request through the public affairs office of the State Department Bureau of Near Eastern Affairs in autumn 1992. Nevertheless, Glaspie did provide me with some direct information, such as details about her honor awards and her challenge to Saddam Hussein to remove his sidearm in her presence. This mater ial is in the book. ROBERT D. KAPLAN William B. Quandt replies: I accept that Mr. Kaplan tried to interview Ambassador Glaspie, although there was no way of knowing this from his book. Still, I think he is too willing to accept the thesis that Glaspie bears much of the blame for our policy toward Iraq on the eve of the invasion of Kuwait. I would look more carefully at policymak ers in the White House. Indeed, my major difference with Kaplan is that he sees the "Arabists" as very influential in the past 30 years, whereas I do not. FOREIGN AFFAIRS January/February 1994 [179] This content downloaded from 193.104.110.123 on Tue, 10 Jun 2014 03:14:40 AMAll use subject to JSTOR Terms and Conditionshttp://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jspArticle Contentsp. 178p. 179Issue Table of ContentsForeign Affairs, Vol. 73, No. 1 (Jan. - Feb., 1994), pp. I-VI, 1-184Front MatterEditor's Note: Slow Start, Fast Finish for Clinton [pp. V-VI]CommentsGrass-Roots Policymaking: Say Good-Bye to the 'Wise Men' [pp. 2-7]Labor and Free TradeTime for a Global New Deal [pp. 8-13]'Social Correctness' Is the New Protectionism [pp. 14-20]Jump-Starting Ex-Communist Economies: A Leaf from the Marshall Plan [pp. 21-26]EssaysClinton's First Year [pp. 28-43]Beyond Boris Yeltsin [pp. 44-55]Wrong Turn in Somalia [pp. 56-66]The Return of Russian History [pp. 67-82]Russia Turns the Corner [pp. 83-98]Trade Lessons from the World Economy [pp. 99-108]The Mystique of U.S. Air Power [pp. 109-124]Glasnost for the CIA [pp. 125-140]ReviewsReview EssayReview: The Tragedy of Cold War History: Reflections on Revisionism [pp. 142-154]Review: The Great (Wo)man Theory of History: Margaret Thatcher's Memoirs [pp. 155-161]Review: Did Ostpolitik Work? The Path to German Reunification [pp. 162-167]Review: Targeting the Middle Class: That's Where the Money Is [pp. 168-172]Letters to the EditorBuilding a New NATO at Russia's Expense from Alexei Pushkov [pp. 173-175]Ancient Hatreds, Modern Passions [pp. 175-177]Passing down the Chilean Recipe [pp. 177-178]Is Jordan Doomed? Yes [pp. 178-179]Influential Arabists? [pp. 179-180]Won't-Be Turks [p. 180-180]Plutonium Is Forever [pp. 180-181]The Rollback Record [p. 181-181]Back Matter