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Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2000
Chapter 5
Managing Risk
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2000
Figure 5-1
Risk Event Graph
Risk
High
Cost
Low
Project life cycle
Chances of risksoccurring
Cost to fixrisk event
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2000
Figure 5-2
Risk Assessment Matrix
Systemfreezing
Low High High Startup
Userbacklash
High Medium MediumPost
installation
Hadwaremalfunctioning
Medium High High Installation
Risk eventChance-
LMHSeverity-
LMH
Detectiondifficulty-
LMH When
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2000
Figure 5-3
Risk Schedules
Best-case schedule
Baseline schedule
Worst-case schedule
Actual scheduleForecast completion
schedule
10%
50%
90%
470 days
500 days
590 days
550 days300 days
Actual tracking schedule
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2000
Figure 5-4
Responses to Risk Matrix
Risk eventAccept, reduce,share, transfer
Contingencyplan Trigger
Systemfreezing
Reduce Reinstall OSStill frozenafter 1 hour
Userbacklash
ReduceIncrease staff
supportCall from topmanagement
Hadwaremalfunctioning
TransferOrder different
brandReplacementdoesn't work
Irwin/McGraw-Hill ©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2000
Figure 5-5
Change RequestProject _________________
Originator ________________
Description of change
Install Y2K compatible chip in six computer controlled milling machines
Date _________________
Phone ________________
Y2K-Machine Dept.
CEG
3/29/
Ext. 4942
Impact Areas Baseline Impact
Deliverable # __________
Work Package # __________Cost Account # __________
Organization Unit __________
1.3M
1.313M1.31M
IS-M Dept.
Scope
Budget
Schedule
Contingency
Staff
Equipment
X
X X
X
Justification (include impact if not implemented)
Reprogramming cost is higher than estimated, and risk of old chips failing is higherthan estimated. (Eliminating reprogramming cost is -$10,000. Cost of Y2K chipsinstalled is +$15,000)
Disposition
Approve
Approve as amended
Disapprove
Deferred
XPriority
Emergency
Urgent
Routine
X
Funding Source
Mgmt. Reserve $ _____________
Budget. Reserve $ _____________
Other $ _____________
5,000.
Authorized _________________
Date ______________________
Scheduled start _________________
Scheduled finish ________________
S.P
4/3/
4/7/
5/10/
