© 2016 Ipsos 1

Core Political Data

05.04.2016

Ipsos Poll Conducted for Reuters

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

2

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted

for date

April 30-May 4, 2016

For the survey,

a sample of

1,277Americans

including

524Democrats

451Republicans

190Independents

18+

ages

w e r e i n t e r v i e w e d o n l i n e

3

The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval.

In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus the following percentage points

For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

3.1

for all adults

4.9

Democrats

5.3

Republicans

8.1

Independents

© 2016 Ipsos 4

The data were weighted to the U.S. current population data by:

–Gender

– Age

– Education

– Ethnicity

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online polls.

All sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

Figures marked by an asterisk (*) indicate a percentage value of greater than zero but less than one half of one per cent.

Where figures do not sum to 100, this is due to the effects of rounding.

To see more information on this and other Reuters/Ipsos polls, please visit http://polling.reuters.com/.

© 2016 Ipsos 5

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Generally speaking, would you say things in this country are heading in the right direction, or are they off on the wrong track?

Right Direction/Wrong Track

26%

60%

14%

Right Direction

Wrong Track

Don’t Know

All Adults45%

41%

14% 11%

83%

6% 18%

67%

15%

Democrats Republicans Independents

ALL ADULT AMERICANS

© 2016 Ipsos 6

Overall, do you approve or disapprove about the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?Is that strongly (approve/disapprove) or somewhat (approve/disapprove)? (Asked of those who selected “approve” or “disapprove”) Q2b. If you had to choose, do you lean more towards approve or disapprove? (Asked of those who selected “don’t know”)

Total Democrat Republican Independent

Strongly approve 26% 51% 5% 16%

Somewhat approve 20% 29% 9% 25%

Lean towards approve 3% 4% 1% 2%

Lean towards disapprove 3% 2% 3% 6%

Somewhat disapprove 10% 5% 16% 14%

Strongly disapprove 32% 7% 64% 35%

Not sure 6% 3% 2% 2%

TOTAL APPROVE 49% 84% 15% 42%

TOTAL DISAPPROVE 45% 13% 83% 56%

Barack ObamaALL ADULT AMERICANS

© 2016 Ipsos 7

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=635)

Total(n=635)

Republican(n=423)

Independent(n=159)

Donald Trump 47% 55% 29%

Ted Cruz 23% 27% 19%

John Kasich 20% 17% 32%

Wouldn’t vote 9% 2% 20%

REGISTERED VOTERS

Republican Presidential Primaries

© 2016 Ipsos 8

Total(n=679)

Democrat(n=467)

Independent(n=159)

Hillary Clinton 47% 56% 30%

Bernie Sanders 40% 41% 41%

Wouldn’t vote 12% 3% 29%

REGISTERED VOTERS

Democratic Presidential Primaries

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote? (Asked of registered voters, n=679)

© 2016 Ipsos 9

Registered Voters

Donald Trump (Republican) 36%

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 45%

Neither / Other 10%

Wouldn't Vote 5%

Don't know / Refused 3%

Registered Voters

Ted Cruz (Republican) 30%

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 44%

Neither / Other 15%

Wouldn't Vote 7%

Don't know / Refused 4%

Registered Voters

John Kasich (Republican) 35%

Hillary Clinton (Democrat) 41%

Neither / Other 14%

Wouldn't Vote 7%

Don't know / Refused 3%

REGISTERED VOTERS

General Head-to-Heads

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were as below, for whom would you vote?(Asked of registered voters, n=1,102)

© 2016 Ipsos 10

For tracking purposes, approval ratings in the above graphic reflect weekly roll-ups of our tracking data (a 7-day period), rather than the 5-day period reflected throughout this topline document

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

JAN

1-7

, 20

12

JAN

22

-28

, 20

12

FEB

12

-18

, 20

12

MA

R 4

-MA

R 1

0, 2

01

2M

AR

25

-31

, 20

12

AP

R 1

5-2

1,

20

12

MA

Y 6

-12

, 20

12

MA

Y 2

7-J

UN

2, 2

01

2JU

N 1

7-2

3, 2

01

2JU

L 8

-14

, 20

12

JUL

29

-AU

G 4

, 20

12

AU

G 1

9-2

5, 2

01

2SE

PT

10

-15

, 20

12

SEP

T 3

0-O

CT

6, 2

01

2O

CT

21

-27

, 20

12

NO

V 1

1-1

7, 2

01

2D

EC 2

-8, 2

01

2D

EC 2

3-2

9, 2

01

2JA

N 8

-14

, 20

13

JAN

29

-FEB

4, 2

01

3FE

B 1

9-2

5, 2

01

3M

AR

12

-18

, 20

13

AP

R 2

-8, 2

01

3A

PR

23

-29

, 2

01

3M

AY

14

-20

, 20

13

JUN

4-1

0, 2

01

3JU

N 2

5-J

UL

1, 2

01

3JU

L 1

6-2

2, 2

01

3A

UG

6-1

2, 2

01

3A

UG

27

-SEP

T 2

, 20

13

SEP

T 1

7-2

3, 2

01

3O

CT

8-1

4,

20

13

OC

T 2

9-N

OV

4, 2

01

3N

OV

19

-25

, 20

13

DEC

10

-16

, 20

13

DEC

EMB

ER 3

1, 2

01

3JA

N 1

5-2

1, 2

01

4FE

B 5

-11

, 20

14

FEB

26

-MA

R 4

, 20

14

MA

R 1

9-2

5, 2

01

4A

PR

9-1

5, 2

01

4A

PR

30-

MA

Y 6

, 20

14

MA

Y 2

1-2

7, 2

01

4JU

N 1

1-1

7, 2

01

4JU

L 2

-8, 2

01

4JU

L 2

3-2

9, 2

01

4A

UG

13

-19

, 20

14

SEP

T 3

-9, 2

01

4SE

PT

24

-30

, 20

14

OC

T 1

5-2

1, 2

01

4N

OV

5-1

1, 2

01

4N

OV

26

-DEC

1, 2

01

4D

EC 1

7-2

3, 2

01

4JA

N 8

-14

, 20

15

JAN

29

-FEB

4, 2

01

5FE

B. 1

9-2

5, 2

01

5M

AR

CH

12

-18

, 20

15

AP

RIL

2-8

, 20

15

AP

RIL

23

-29

, 20

15

MA

Y 2

1-2

7, 2

01

5JU

N 1

1-

JUN

17

, 20

15

JULY

1-J

ULY

7, 2

01

5JU

LY 2

2-

JULY

28

, 20

15

AU

G 1

2-

AU

G 1

8, 2

01

5SE

PT

3-9

, 20

15

SEP

T 2

4-3

0, 2

01

5O

CTO

BER

15

-21

, 2

01

5N

OV

EMB

ER 4

-10

, 20

15

NO

VEM

BER

25

-…D

ECEM

BER

16

-22

, 20

15

JAU

NA

RY

6-1

2, 2

01

6JA

NU

AR

Y 2

9-F

EBR

UA

RY …

FEB

RU

AR

Y 2

0-2

4, 2

01

6M

AR

CH

11

-15

, 20

16

AP

RIL

2-A

PR

IL 6

, 20

16

AP

RIL

22

-26

, 20

16

48%

48%

ALL AMERICANS

Weekly Approval

© 2016 Ipsos 11

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.

If the 2016 Republican presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?

27%

55%

17%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

JUL-

15

AU

G-1

5

SEP

-15

OC

T-1

5

NO

V-1

5

DEC

-15

JAN

-16

FEB

-16

MA

R-1

6

AP

R-1

6

WEE

K O

F 5

/4/2

016

Trump

Cruz

Kasich

REGISTERED REPUBLICAN VOTERS

Republican Primary Trend

© 2016 Ipsos 12

Please think ahead now to the next Presidential election this year, in 2016.

If the 2016 Democratic presidential primaries were being held today, for whom of the following would you vote?

41%

56%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

JUL-

15

AU

G-1

5

SEP

-15

OC

T-1

5

NO

V-1

5

DEC

-15

JAN

-16

FEB

-16

MA

R-1

6

AP

R-1

6

WEE

K O

F 5

/4/2

016

Clinton

Sanders

REGISTERED DEMOCRATIC VOTERS

Democratic Primary Trend

© 2016 Ipsos 13

All Adults: n= 1,277

15%

20%

7%

6%

14%

12%

15%

6%

4%

42%

32%

15%

10%

Strong Democrat

Moderate Democrat

Lean Democrat

Lean Republican

Moderate Republican

Strong Republican

Independent

None of these

DK

Democrat

Republican

Independent

None/DK

ALL AMERICANS

Political Identity

© 2016 Ipsos 14

• The calculation of credibility intervals assumes that Y has a binomial distribution conditioned on the parameter θ\, i.E., Y|θ~bin(n,θ), where n is the size of our sample. In this setting, Y counts the number of “yes”, or “1”, observed in the sample, so that the sample mean (y ̅) is a natural estimate of the true population proportion θ. This model is often called the likelihood function, and it is a standard concept in both the bayesian and the classical framework. The bayesian 1 statistics combines both the prior distribution and the likelihood function to create a posterior distribution. The posterior distribution represents our opinion about which are the plausible values for θ adjusted after observing the sample data. In reality, the posterior distribution is one’s knowledge base updated using the latest survey information. For the prior and likelihood functions specified here, the posterior distribution is also a beta distribution (π(θ/y)~β(y+a,n-y+b)), but with updated hyper-parameters.

• Our credibility interval for θ is based on this posterior distribution. As mentioned above, these intervals represent our belief about which are the most plausible values for θ given our updated knowledge base. There are different ways to calculate these intervals based on π(θ/y). Since we want only one measure of precision for all variables in the survey, analogous to what is done within the classical framework, we will compute the largest possible credibility interval for any observed sample. The worst case occurs when we assume that a=1 and b=1 and y=n/2. Using a simple approximation of the posterior by the normal distribution, the 95% credibility interval is given by, approximately:

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

© 2016 Ipsos 15

How to Calculate Bayesian Credibility Intervals

For this poll, The Bayesian credibility interval was adjusted using standard weighting design effect 1+L=1.3 to account for complex weighting2

Examples of credibility intervals for different base sizes are below.

SAMPLE SIZECREDIBILITY INTERVALS

2,000 2.5

1,500 2.9

1,000 3.5

750 4.1

500 5.0

350 6.0

200 7.9

100 11.2

1 Bayesian Data Analysis, Second Edition, Andrew Gelman, John B. Carlin, Hal S. Stern, Donald B. Rubin, Chapman & Hall/CRC | ISBN: 158488388X | 20032 Kish, L. (1992). Weighting for unequal Pi . Journal of Official, Statistics, 8, 2, 183200.

Ipsos does not publish data for base sizes

(sample sizes) below 100.

© 2016 Ipsos 16

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