IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH POLITICAL MONITOR · 2019. 11. 27. · Satisfaction with party leaders 9 43% 39% 18% 50% 33% 17% Dissatisfied Don’t know Satisfied 22% 9% 69% Willie Rennie 38%

© Ipsos | Doc Name | Month Year | Version # | Public | Internal/Client Use Only | Strictly Confidential

IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH POLITICAL MONITOR


VOTINGINTENTION

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public3

Voting Intention: November 2019

All giving a voting intentionHeadline voting intention

Conservative lead = +14SNP lead = +18

43%

25%

17%

10%

3%

1%

1%

SNP

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Green

Brexit

Other

Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: 1,032 Scottish adults 18+, 19-25 November 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote, always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections and registered to vote (868). Margin of

error is displayed at +/- 4%. All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the

true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party

lead figures.

How do you intend to vote in the general election?

SNP lead = +18

44%

26%

16%

11%

2%

<1%

1%

SNP

Conservative

Labour

Lib Dems

Green Party

Brexit Party

Other

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | November 2019 | Public

VOTINGDECISIONS

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor | November 2019 | Public

Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: Scottish adults 18+ who said they would vote for a party (716); SNP supporters (299); Conservative supporters (183); Labour supporters (83);

Lib Dem supporters (63); 19th-25th November 2019

Which party to vote for? % Definitely decided

% May change

mind

66%

73%

84%

84%

77%

34%

27%

16%

15%

23%

Among Lib Dem supporters

Among Labour supporters

Among Conservative

supporters

Among SNP supporters

Among all

% Definitely

decided

Have you definitely decided to vote for the ………. party or is there a chance you

may change your mind before you vote?


Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); SNP supporters (339); Conservative supporters (219); Labour supporters (120);

Lib Dem supporters (94); 19th-25th November 2019

Tactical voting decisions: By party

64%

66%

71%

83%

72%

22%

19%

12%

6%

13%

Among Lib Dem supporters

Among Labour supporters

Among Conservative

supporters


Among all

% party that most represents

own views

% vote to keep

another party out

Which of the following statements comes closest to your reasons for intending to vote for [party]?

‘It is the party that most represents your views’ or ‘The party you support has little chance of

winning so you vote for [party] to try to keep another party out’


SATISFACTIONWITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS


Boris Johnson Nicola Sturgeon The Scottish Government

Satisfaction with leaders and the Scottish Government

8

48%

4%

48%

48%

5%

46%

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Satisfied

Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1,046),19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is running the country/doing his/her job…

as Prime Minister/First Minister?

74%

4%

22%

NET= 0NET= -52 NET=- 2


Nicola Sturgeon Jackson Carlaw Jeremy CorbynRichard Leonard

Satisfaction with party leaders

9

43%

39%

18%

50%

33%

17%

Dissatisfied

Don’t know

Satisfied22%

9%

69%

Willie Rennie

38%

31%

31%

Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1.046),19-25 November 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way…. is doing his/her job…

as First Minister of Scotland/ interim leader of the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party/ leader of the

Scottish Labour Party/ the Scottish Liberal Democrats/ the UK Labour Party/ the UK Liberal Democrat

Party?Jo Swinson

48%

25%

27%

48%

4%

48%

NET= 0 NET= -25 NET= -33 NET= -7 NET= -47 NET=-21


KEY ISSUES


Which issues will help decide your vote?

Looking ahead to the General

Election, which, if any, issues do

you think will be very important

to you in helping you decide

which party to vote for?

Base: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); 19-25 November 2019

11

Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political Monitor

6%

6%

6%

7%

7%

8%

24%

34%

44%

56%

Poverty/Inequality

Housing

Taxation

Managing the economy/economic situation

Immigration

Protecting the environment/climate change

Education/schools

Scottish independence/devolution

Healthcare/NHS/hospitals

Europe/EU/Brexit


Which issues will help decide your vote?Looking ahead to the next General Election, which, if any, issues do you think will be very important to

you in helping you decide which party to vote for?

12

10%

20%

31%

33%

72%

Taxation

Education

Independence

NHS

Brexit

6%

22%

45%

46%

55%

Environment*(5=)

Education

NHS

Independence

Brexit

17%

20%

32%

39%

67%

Independence

Benefits

Education

Brexit

NHS

Among all

Among Conservative Party supporters Among Labour Party supporters


Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Political MonitorBase: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); SNP supporters (339); Conservative supporters (219); Labour supporters (120), 19-25 November 2019

8%

24%

34%

44%

56%

Environment

Education

Independence

NHS

Brexit

*Both environment and immigration are mentioned by 6% of SNP supporters


Influence of Brexit vs Scottish independence on voting intention

13

12%

24%

24%

37%

Neither

Scottishindependence

Brexit

Both


Regardless of whether you support or oppose Brexit or Scottish independence, which of these has more influence on what party you think you will vote for in the general election?

Base: Scottish adults 18+ with a voting intention (902); 19-25 November 2019

© Ipsos | Ipsos MORI General Election 2019 Campaign Tracker | November 2019 | Public

FUTURE OFTHE UNION



Do you support or oppose a second referendum on Scottish independence being held within the next year?

33%

9%

6%7%

43%Strongly support

Tend to support

Neither support nor oppose

Tend to oppose

Strongly oppose

SUPPORT:

42%

Base: Scottish adults 16+ (1.046),19-25 November 2019

Indyref 2 next year?

OPPOSE:

50%



Support for independence?

If a referendum were held tomorrow about Scotland's constitutional future, how would you vote in response to the following question:Should Scotland be an independent country?

48%

48%

4%Yes

No

Undecided

All likely to vote

50%50%

Yes

No

All likely to vote and expressing a voting

intention

Base: Scottish adults 16+ likely to vote in an independence referendum (915); Scottish adults 16+ likely to vote and expressing a voting intention (897); 19th – 25th

November 2019

Technical note

Ipsos MORI Scotland interviewed a representative sample of

1,046 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were

conducted by telephone: 19 – 25 November 2019. Data are

weighted by age, sex, region, social grade, working status,

tenure, education and country of birth to match the profile of

the population.

Where percentages do not sum to 100 this may be due to

computer rounding, the exclusion of “don’t know” categories,

or multiple answers. An asterisk (*) denotes any value of less

than half a per cent.

Questions are asked of the total sample of n=1,046 unless

otherwise stated.

Ipsos MORIScottish Political Monitor 2019

For more information

Emily Gray

Managing Director, Ipsos MORI Scotland

[email protected]

Documents

IPSOS MORI SCOTTISH POLITICAL MONITOR · 2019. 11. 27. · Satisfaction with party leaders 9 43% 39% 18% 50% 33% 17% Dissatisfied Don’t know Satisfied 22% 9% 69% Willie Rennie 38%