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Investor MeetingsMarch 2016
Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement
2
Investor Relations Contact Information
Jimmie Blotter, Director, Investor Relations Lisa Goodman, Manager, Investor RelationsU.S. 1‐505‐241‐2227 U.S. 1‐505‐241‐[email protected] [email protected]
Safe Harbor StatementStatements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources’ (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas‐New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.Readers are cautioned that all forward‐looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward‐looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by theforward‐looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward‐looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10‐K and 10‐Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein.
Non‐GAAP Financial MeasuresFor an explanation of the non‐GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings and ongoing earnings per diluted share), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm
Strategic Overview
PNM Resources Overview
4
Generation Resources and Service Territories
PNM Resources is a regulated electric utility holding company focused on providing a top quartile total return to shareholders
NYSE Ticker PNMMarket Cap $2.6B
• Energy holding company• Based in Albuquerque, New Mexico
• Located in New Mexico• 516,658 customers• 15,025 miles transmission and distribution lines• 2,787 MW generation capacity• Top quartile reliability• Affordable rates
• Located in Texas• 243,461 end‐users• 9,220 miles transmission and distribution lines• Top quartile reliability• Affordable rates
2015 Accomplishments and Highlights
5
• PNM BART plan approved by FERC and NMPRC• PNM Future Test Year definition resolved• PNM Transmission formula rate case settled• TNMP implemented two TCOS increases• TNMP AMS Reconciliation filing recommended for approval without exception
Regulatory Accomplishments
• PNM received 2015 ReliabilityOneTM Award for Outstanding Midsize Utility
• PNM Customer Satisfaction scores increased; NMPRC merited complaints sustained at 5‐year record‐low levels
• PNM increased generation capacity: 40 MW utility‐scale solar, 40 MW La Luz gas peaking station
• TNMP Energy Efficiency program receives ENERGY STAR’s Market Leader Award for 11th consecutive year
• TNMP achieved 91% of AMS meter installation; Outage Management System implemented
Operational Highlights
PNM Resources Strategic Direction
6
Strategic GoalsEarn Authorized Return on Regulated BusinessesMaintain Solid Investment Grade Credit Ratings
Above Industry Average Earnings and Dividend Growth
• Investing in core capital, environmental control equipment and replacement power
Rate Base Growth
•Realizing earnings potential in business
•Continuing to earn our allowed returns
•Reducing regulatory lag
Earnings Growth •Sustaining and growing
the dividend•Providing above‐average dividend growth
Dividend Growth
Capital Forecast
7
2016 – 2019 Total Capital Plan: $1.7B PNM 2015‐2019 Rate Base CAGR: 5 ‐7%(1)
TNMP 2015‐2019 Rate Base CAGR: 7 ‐9%
(1)Includes the addition of PV3 to rate base, which does not have associated capital spending.(2)The additional 65 MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 included in the December BART approval is part of Corporate/Otherfor 2016‐2017 and PNM beginning in 2018.
Beginning in July 2016, depreciation rates reflect the full rate change proposed in the August 2015 General Rate Case filing.Amounts may not add due to rounding.
$298
$163 $167 $93
$99
$132 $102
$127
$115
$101 $114
$117
$36
$19 $14
$15
2016 2017 2018 2019
(In millions)
PNM Generation PNM T&D TNMP Corporate/Other Depreciation
$547
$415 $398$352
Palo Verde Unit 3 added to
rate base
(2)(2)
Rate Base Growth: BART Implementation
8
BART: Best Available Retrofit TechnologySNCR: Selective Non‐Catalytic ReductionCCN: Certificate of Convenience and Necessity
Additional 132 MW of San Juan Unit 4
CCN with an initial book value of zero plus SNCR and other capital investments
Coal Supply Agreement
Agreement with Westmoreland Coal Company through 2022 with ability to extend
Significantly improved pricing
Westmoreland purchased mine January 2016
Palo Verde Unit 3
San Juan Units 2 & 3
SNCR TechnologySNCR costs will be fully
recovered by June 30, 2022; cost recovery determined in
general rate case
Approval of retirement and recovery of half of the
undepreciated investment, estimated to be ~$128M
CCN for 134 MW with an initial rate base value equal to book value (~$1,118/kW)
Rate Base Growth(in millions)
PVNGS Unit 3 $113
SNCR and Balanced Draft on San Juan Units 1 and 4 $63
Retirement of San Juan Units 2 and 3 and CCN for Additional 132 MWs of San Juan Unit 4
($78)
Total $98
Approved December 16, 2015
Earnings Growth: 2016 ‐ 2019 Potential Earnings Power
9
2016 Earnings Guidance 2019 Earnings Potential
EPS GrowthAvg Rate Base Return EPS Avg Rate
Base
Allowed Return /
Equity RatioEPS
PNM Retail (1) $2.4 B 7.3% ‐ 8.4% $1.08 ‐ $1.24 $2.5 B 10% / 50% $1.58 $0.50 ‐ $0.34PNM Renewables (2) $100 M 10.0% $0.06 $85 M 10% / 50% $0.05 ($0.01)PNM FERC Transmission (3) $180 M 8.1% ‐ 9.0% $0.09 ‐ $0.10 $270 M 10% / ~50% $0.12 ‐ $0.15 $0.03 ‐ $0.15
PV3 (4) ($0.14) Included in PNM Retail $0.14
Items not in rates (5) $0.03 ‐ $0.04 ($0.01) ‐ $0.05 ($0.04) ‐ $0.01
Total PNM $2.7 B $1.12 ‐ $1.30 $2.9 B $1.74 ‐ $1.83 $0.62 ‐ $0.53
TNMP (6) $700 M ~10.125% $0.49 ‐ $0.51 $860 M 10.125% / 45% $0.52 $0.03 ‐ $0.01
Corporate/Other (7) ($0.06) ‐ ($0.05) ($0.06) ‐ ($0.04) $0.00 ‐ $0.01
Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.55 ‐ $1.76 $3.8 B $2.20 ‐ $2.31 $0.65 ‐ $0.55(1) 2016 Guidance EPS range assumes implementation of the full rate request filed in the August 2015 General Rate Case, including a 10.5% ROE, between July and October 2016. 2019 Earnings Potential utilizes the currently authorized ROE of 10%.
(2) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (3) Transmission is recovered under the FERC formula rate methodology, which uses prior year average rate base and assumes mid‐year rate increases, at a 10% ROE. To reflect this inherent lag in the methodology, earnings potential represents the prior year average rate base and uses an ROE range of 7 – 9%.
(4) 2016 Guidance assumes a fully‐hedged market price of ~$26/MWh; a price of $43/MWh is required to break even. PV3 is included in PNM rates beginning in 2018.(5) Consists primarily of Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains and losses, AFUDC, refined coal, certain incentive compensation, earnings in 2017 associated with the assets previously allocated to the Navopache contract, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 beginning in 2018.
(6) TNMP EPS includes $0.02 of CTC in 2016 and $0.01 in 2019. TNMP allowed returns are based on the most recently filed general rate case. Changes in certain factors, including load growth and lower debt costs, present opportunities for further potential. 2019 Earnings Potential includes the refinancing of $172M of 9.5% debt for $0.02.
(7) Corporate/Other includes the capital expenditures and restructuring fees associated with the 65MW of San Juan Unit 4 that PNM is expected to acquire at the end of 2017. Also includes short and intermediate term bank debt.
This table is not intended to represent a forward‐looking projection of 2017 ‐ 2019 earnings guidance.
Earnings Growth: PNM General Rate Case
10
Requested revenue increase of $123.5 million• Based on Oct. 2015 – Sept. 2016 test year and 10.5% ROE• Average system impact of 5.4%, including the new coal contract and other changes
Rate Base
Rate Design•Customer Class Allocations
•Higher Fixed and Demand Charges
•Decoupling
Operations
• New Generation:• 40 MW Solar• 40 MW La Luz Gas Peaker
• Rio Bravo Generating Station • SNCR Equipment, including Balanced Draft• Palo Verde Unit 2 Lease Purchases• T&D Reliability and Core Investments• Depreciation Rate Change
• 50% Reduction of Remaining Palo Verde Units 1&2 Lease Payments
• Other O&M Changes• Energy Sales
Timeline
Rate case filed August 27, 2015
Hearings: March 14‐25, 2016(1)
Rates Effective: Q3 2016
(1) On March 2nd, the NMPRC extended the suspension period through July 31st and ordered the Hearing Examiner to vacate the scheduled hearing dates. PNM has filed motions for rehearing and to preserve the March 14th – 25th hearing dates, requesting a Commission ruling by March 9th. The Commission ruling combined with the Hearing Examiner’s Prehearing Conference, also on March 9th, will determine the schedule for hearings.
Earnings and Dividend Growth: Above Industry Average
11
2012 – 2015 Ongoing EPS represents actual results2016E Ongoing EPS represents ongoing earnings guidance of $1.55 ‐ $1.76 per diluted share
$1.31 $1.41 $1.49
$1.64
$1.55
$1.76
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EOngoing EPS
$0.58 $0.66 $0.74 $0.80 $0.88
Declared Dividends
Feb ‘13 Dec ‘13 Dec ‘14Feb ‘12 Dec ‘15
The annual common stock dividend was raised by 10% in December 2015 to $0.88 per share
Expect above industry average dividend growth in the future while targeting the 50% ‐ 60% payout ratio range
The Board will continue to evaluate the dividend on an annual basis, considering:• Sustainability and growth• Capital planning• Industry standards
Next dividend review in December 2016
Dividend rate: $0.88 (1)
Payout ratio:53% (2)
Dividend yield:2.8% (3)
Dividend rate: $0.88 (1)
Payout ratio:53% (2)
Dividend yield:2.8% (3)
(1) Equivalent annual rate(2) Assumes mid‐point of 2016 guidance (3) Based on 2/26/16 stock price of $31.82
7% ‐ 9% Earnings Growth
2015 ‐ 2019
PNM Overview
PNM: Recent Accomplishments
13
Progressing regulatory environment• Retail Renewable Rider implemented in August of 2012 with
rates reset annually; 2015 revenue was $43M• Filed settlement on FERC Transmission formula rate case with
10% ROE; rates in effect, subject to refund• Approval of San Juan Generation Station Plan (BART) by FERC and NMPRC
Operational highlights• 2015 ReliabilityOne Award recipient, recognizing exceptional reliability
among midsized investor‐owned utilities• Customer satisfaction metrics reflect significant 5‐year gains• San Juan Restructuring Agreement and Coal Supply agreements finalized,
customer savings in place• Increased generation capacity: 40MW utility‐scale solar, 40 MW La Luz gas
peaking station
Increasing credit ratings• Credit ratings raised by Moody’s to Baa2 with a stable issuer outlook and
S&P to BBB+ with a stable issuer outlook
PNM Load Growth and Economic Conditions
14
Regulated Retail Energy Sales (weather‐normalized)
(1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2015
PNM
% of 2015 Sales
Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014
2015 vs. 2014
Residential 39% 0.0% 0.0%
Commercial 46% (1.9%) (2.2%)
Industrial 12% (4.0%) (2.7%)
Total Retail (1.3%) (1.4%)
2016 Load Forecast: (2%) – 0%
Average Customer Growth
Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014
2015 vs. 2014
2016 Forecast
PNM 0.8% 0.7% 0.5%
1.6%
2.1%
‐1.0%‐0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%
12/12
01/13
02/13
03/13
04/13
05/13
06/13
07/13
08/13
09/13
10/13
11/13
12/13
01/14
02/14
03/14
04/14
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
11/14
12/14
01/15
02/15
03/15
04/15
05/15
06/15
07/15
08/15
09/15
10/15
11/15
12/15
Employment Growth(1)12‐Month Rolling Average
Albuquerque U.S.
PNM Rate Affordability
15PNM rates reflect current rates (2014) and the combined impacts of the August 2015 General Rate Case filing, existing riders and fuel clause, and the new coal contract with Westmoreland Coal Company (2016). All others reflect U.S. Energy Information Administration's Forecasted Residential Rate increases through 2014.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
Est.
Ave
rage
201
4 R
esid
entia
l Ele
ctric
Bill
Est.
2014
Med
ian
Hou
seho
ld In
com
e
PNM's Residential Affordability Continues to be Among the Best in the Nation
Sources: EIA Form 826, US Census Bureau
U.S. Average: 2.5%
PNM Regulatory Accomplishments
16
Subject Matter Accomplishments
BART• NMPRC approved plan to retire San Juan Units 2 and 3 at December 31, 2017 and install
SNCR on San Juan Units 1 and 42011 General Rate Case • NMPRC approved $72.1 million rate increase; 10.0% ROE (Aug. 2011)
Renewable Riders
• NMPRC approved Renewable Energy Rider; rates reset annually to recover projected and true‐up procurement costs (Aug. 2012)
• NMPRC approved revised Sky Blue Program using blend of solar and wind for voluntary customer purchases (Dec. 2012)
Generation Plant• NMPRC approved acquisition of the (formerly Delta‐Person) Rio Bravo Plant (June 2013)• NMPRC approved CCN for the La Luz Energy Center (June 2014)
Fuel Clause • NMPRC approved continuation of fuel clause for four years and quarterly fuel clause factor
resets (April 2014)
Renewable Resources• NMPRC has approved construction and cost recovery of 67 MW of PNM‐owned solar
facilities; additional 40 MW of 2015 approved construction included in August 2015 General Rate Case Filing
Energy Efficiency Rider• NMPRC approved recovery of stipulated incentive amount concurrently with EE program
costs, subject only to meeting statutory cumulative energy savings (April 2015)
Financing• On June 29, 2015, PNM filed for authorization to issued up to $300 million in Senior
Unsecured Notes; NMPRC approved received on August 5, 2015
2010 Transmission Rate Case• Settlement filed (July 2012)• FERC approved Settlement (Jan. 2013)
Generation Rate Case• Application filed to serve Navopache Electric Cooperative (Sept. 2011)• Settlement filed; imputed ROE is 10.0% (Dec. 2012)• FERC approved Settlement (April 2013)
2012 Transmission Rate Case (Current)• Application filed (Dec. 2012)• Settlement filed; imputed ROE is 10.0% (March 2015)• Settlement is currently pending; rates implemented, subject to refund
NMPR
CFERC
PNM: Pathway to Continued Success
17
Earn allowed return• Minimize regulatory lag through timely rate case filings• Synchronize revenues and expenses• Use future test year
Continue to maintain strong investment grade credit metrics
Continue to control costs
TNMP Overview
TNMP: Recent Accomplishments
19
TCOS and DCOS filings provide the ability to recover transmission and distribution cost of service investments on a timely basis
• TCOS filing requesting additional revenue of $1.4M was approved with rates effective September 10, 2015
Energy efficiency program costs collected through Energy Efficiency Cost Recovery Factor
• Received ENERGY STAR Market Leader Award for 11th consecutive year
• TNMP has achieved performance bonuses each year since 2010
Smart meter rider approval led to implementation of $12M surcharge collected 2011‐2023
Credit ratings increased by Moody’s to A1 with a stable outlook and S&P to A with a stable outlook
TNMP Load Growth and Economic Conditions
20
Regulated Retail Energy Sales (weather‐normalized)
(1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2015
TNMP
% of 2015 Sales
Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014
2015 vs. 2014
Residential 51% 6.8% 4.2%
Commercial 46% (1.0%) 1.4%
Total Retail 2.4% 2.6%
2016 Load Forecast: 2% – 3%
Average Customer Growth
Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014
2015 vs. 2014
2016 Forecast
TNMP 1.5% 1.5% 1.0%
3.5%
2.0%2.1%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
12/12
01/13
02/13
03/13
04/13
05/13
06/13
07/13
08/13
09/13
10/13
11/13
12/13
01/14
02/14
03/14
04/14
05/14
06/14
07/14
08/14
09/14
10/14
11/14
12/14
01/15
02/15
03/15
04/15
05/15
06/15
07/15
08/15
09/15
10/15
11/15
12/15
Employment Growth(1)12‐Month Rolling Average
Dallas Houston U.S.
TNMP Regulatory Accomplishments
21
Subject Matter AccomplishmentsPUCT:
Transmission Cost of Service (TCOS)
2016• Filed $4.3M increase in January, expected to be effective March 20162015• PUCT approved $1.4M increase, effective September 2015• PUCT approved $4.4M increase, effective March 20152014• PUCT approved $4.2M increase, effective September 2014• PUCT approved $2.9M increase, effective March 20142013• PUCT approved $2.9M increase, effective March 20132012• PUCT approved $2.5M increase, effective September 2012
Advanced Metering Systems (AMS) • PUCT approved $12M rate rider, effective August 2011
General Rate Case • PUCT approved $10.25M base rate increase, implemented February 2011
TNMP: Pathway to Continued Success
22
Continue to earn allowed rate of return through timely execution of transmission cost of service and general rate case filings• Additional investments in the business to support strong growth
Continue to maintain strong investment grade credit metrics
Continue to control costs
Financial Overview
FY 2015 Financial Summary
24
$1.49
$1.64 $0.08 $0.05 $0.02
2014 2015
Ongoing EPS
PNMTNMP Corporate
PNM and TNMP: 2015 vs 2014 EPS (Ongoing)
25
PNM
TNMP
2015 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Palo Verde Unit 1 leases at half price $0.12AFUDC $0.09Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains $0.05Refined coal $0.03El Paso natural gas tariff $0.03Renewable rate relief $0.02Weather $0.022003 – 2008 IRS Settlement $0.02Other $0.02Rio Bravo purchase $0.01
Load ($0.07)Outage costs ($0.06)Depreciation and property tax ($0.05)Transmission margins ($0.04)O&M increases ($0.04)FERC Generation Gallup contract ($0.03)Exploration of alternative San Juan fuel supply contracts ($0.02)Interest expense ($0.02)
2015 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPSTCOS rate relief $0.06Load $0.03
Depreciation and property tax ($0.03)Other ($0.01)
$0.47 $0.52
2014 2015
$1.10 $1.18
2014 2015
2016 Guidance
26
(1) EPS range assumes implementation of the full rate request filed in the August 2015 General Rate Case, including a 10.5% ROE, between July and October 2016.(2) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (3) Transmission is recovered under the FERC formula rate methodology, which uses prior year average rate base and assumes mid‐year rate increases, at a 10% ROE. (4) 2016 Guidance assumes a fully‐hedged market price of ~$26/MWh ; a price of $43/MWh is required to break even(5) Consists primarily of Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains and losses, AFUDC, refined coal, certain incentive compensation, and earnings in 2016 associated with the Navopache contract.
(6) TNMP EPS includes $0.02 of CTC, which will be fully amortized in 2020. TNMP Earnings Potential is based on allowed returns in the most recently filed general rate case. Changes in certain factors, including load growth and lower debt costs, present opportunities for further potential.
(7) Corporate/Other includes the capital expenditures and restructuring fees associated with the 65MW of San Juan Unit 4 that PNM is expected to acquire at the end of 2017. Also includes short and intermediate term bank debt.
2016 Earnings Guidance
Avg Rate Base Return EPS
PNM Retail (1) $2.4 B 7.3% ‐ 8.4% $1.08 ‐ $1.24PNM Renewables (2) $100 M 10.0% $0.06PNM FERC Transmission (3) $180 M 8.1% ‐ 9.0% $0.09 ‐ $0.10
PV3 (4) ($0.14)
Items not in rates (5) $0.03 ‐ $0.04
Total PNM $2.7 B $1.12 ‐ $1.30
TNMP (6) $700 M ~10.125% $0.49 ‐ $0.51Corporate/Other (7) ($0.06) ‐ ($0.05)
Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.55 ‐ $1.76
PNM Rate Case Assumptions
27
2016PNM Rate Case Assumptions
Rate case filed with 10.5% ROE
Each 25 bps difference in ROE (annually) +/‐ $0.04
Rate implementation could occur anytime between July 1 and Oct. 1 (assumes 10.5% ROE and $123.5M increase in revenue requirement)
Up to $0.40
July 1 implementation $0.40
Aug. 1 implementation $0.32
Sep. 1 implementation $0.25
Oct. 1 implementation $0.19
Rate Case Schedule:January 29, 2016 Staff and Intervenor Testimony due
February 22, 2016 Rebuttal Testimony due
March 9, 2016 Pre‐Hearing Conference
March 14 ‐ 25, 2016 Hearings
Q3 2016 Effective Date
Liquidity and Capital Structure
28
PNM TNMPCorporate/
OtherPNM Resources Consolidated
Financing Capacity as of February 19, 2016 (In millions)Total Capacity(1) $450.0 $75.0 $300.0 $825.0
Less short‐term debt(1) and LOC balances 99.4 15.1 112.3 226.8
Plus invested cash ‐ ‐ 1.9 1.9
Total Available Liquidity $350.6 $59.9 $189.6 $600.1
Target cap structures: 50/50 at PNM, 55/45 at TNMP
(1)Excludes intercompany debt and term loans
(in millions) Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2015
PNM $1,490.7 $1,580.7
TNMP 370.7 420.1
Corporate/Other 219.4 341.5
Consolidated $2,080.7 $2,342.5
Total Debt(2)
$150$125
$507
$100
$859
$172
$173
2016 2017‐2018 2019‐2020 Beyond 2020
Long‐term Debt MaturitiesPrincipal Amounts
(in millions)
Corporate PNM TNMP(2) Excludes inter‐company debtAmounts may not add due to rounding
Credit Ratings
29
Credit Ratings
Moody’s S&PPNM Resources Baa3(1) BBB+(1)
PNM(2) Baa2 BBB+(2)
TNMP A1(3) A(3)
Issuer Outlook Stable Stable
Rate relief, cost control, and tax benefits keep FFO to Debt well within Moody’s Baa investment grade target range of 13% to 22%
(1) Issuer/Corporate rating(2) Senior unsecured(3) Senior secured
19% 19%17%
13%
22%
2013 2014 2015
PNM Resources FFO to Debt
PNM Resources Summary
30
Continued earnings and dividend growth make PNM Resources an attractive investment
Potential earnings growth of 7% ‐ 9% through 2019
Expected rate base CAGR:• PNM: 5% ‐ 7% through 2019• TNMP: 7% ‐ 9% through 2019
Other potential investments: • Renewable resources• Transmission investments• Grid enhancements• Purchase remaining 114 MWs of Palo Verde leases
Continued above industry‐average dividend growth• Option to increase target payout ratio range after heightened capital spending
is complete
Appendix
2017 and 2018 Potential Earnings Power
32
Allowed Return /
Equity Ratio
2017 Earnings Potential 2018 Earnings Potential
Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate
Base EPS
PNM Retail (1) 10% / 50% $2.4 B $1.50 $2.6 B $1.59
PNM Renewables (2) 10% / 50% $95 M $0.06 $90 M $0.06
PNM FERC Transmission (3) 10% / ~50% $180 M $0.08‐$0.10 $245 M $0.11‐$0.14
PV3 (4) ($0.13) Included in PNM Retail
Items not in rates (5) $0.01‐$0.04 ($0.02)‐$0.01
Total PNM $2.7 B $1.52 ‐ $1.57 $2.9 B $1.74 ‐ $1.80
TNMP (6) 10.125% / 45% $770 M $0.46 $810 M $0.48
Corporate/Other (7) ($0.06)‐($0.04) ($0.06)‐($0.04)
Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.92 ‐ $1.99 $3.7 B $2.16 ‐ $2.24(1) The August 2015 General Rate Case filing proposes a 10.5% ROE. The currently authorized 10% ROE has been used for this presentation.(2) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (3) Transmission is recovered under the FERC formula rate methodology, which uses prior year average rate base and assumes mid‐year rate increases, at a 10% ROE. To reflect this inherent lag in the methodology, earnings potential represents the prior year average rate base and uses an ROE range of 7 – 9%.
(4) 2017 Earnings Potential assumes a forward market price of $28/MWh; a price of $44/MWh is required to break even. PV3 is included in PNM rates beginning in 2018.(5) Consists primarily of Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains and losses, AFUDC, refined coal, certain incentive compensation, earnings in 2017 associated with the assets previously allocated to the Navopache contract, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 beginning in 2018.
(6) TNMP Earnings Potential includes $0.02 of CTC in 2017 and 2018. TNMP allowed returns are based on the most recently filed general rate case. Changes in certain factors, including load growth and lower debt costs, present opportunities for further potential.
(7) Corporate/Other includes the capital expenditures and restructuring fees associated with the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 before 2018 and short and intermediate term bank debt.
This table is not intended to represent a forward‐looking projection of 2017 or 2018 earnings guidance.
PNM General Rate Case Drivers and Other Impacts to Customer Rates
33
Revenue requirement driven by rate base additions and energy sales
Amount (in millions)
Rate Base $95Energy Sales 31Other:
50% Reduction of Remaining Palo Verde Lease Payments (17)Change in ROE from 10% to 10.5% 6Re‐allocation of Gallup costs 10Fuel Handling (Moved to Fuel Clause) (7)Other O&M Changes 3.5
Subtotal Other $(4.5)Total Non‐Fuel Revenue Deficiency $121.5
Projected Fuel 2.0Total Revenue Deficiency per Filing $123.5Other Impacts to Customer Rates(1) (71.5)Increase to Annual Customer Rates $52.0
(1) Includes the combined impacts of the new coal contract with Westmoreland Coal Company (pending BART approval), existing riders and fuel clause that begin as early as January 1, 2016.
PNM General Rate Case Drivers: Rate Base
34
RateBase
Additions
IncrementalRevenue
Requirement (Retail share, in millions)
Solar (40 MW) $65 $11
La Luz Gas Peaker (40 MW) 50 8
Rio Bravo Generating Station (138 MW)(1) 32 ‐
San Juan SNCR Equipment & Balanced Draft 58 9
Palo Verde Unit 2 Lease Purchase (64 MW) 144 2
Core Rate Base Growth 251 17
Five Months of CWIP(2) 55 6
Core Depreciation and Property Taxes 21
Update to Depreciation Rates 21
Total increase due to rate base items $655 $95(1) Acquisition of Rio Bravo Generating Station is included in filing, but is neutral from a revenue requirement perspective(2) Represents Construction Work in Progress (CWIP) assets placed into service between October 2016 and February 2017
PNM Customer Rate Impact as of July 1, 2016
35
Major Customer Class Rate % Increase per Request
Rate % IncreaseIncluding Fuel and Other Changes (1)
Residential 15.8% 7.9%
Small Power 14.4% 7.0%
General Power 14.5% 5.2%
Large Power 14.2% 2.8%
Large Power >= 8,000kW 9.4% (2.6)%
Universities 9.3% (2.4)%
Manufacturing 9.4% (4.8)%
System Total 14.4% 5.4%(1) Includes the combined impacts of the August 2015 General Rate Case filing, existing riders and fuel clause, and the new coal contract with Westmoreland Coal Company (pending BART approval).
PNM Guidance (Ongoing)
36
2015 – 2016E Other Key Performance Drivers Year‐over‐Year∆ EPS
Elimination of Palo Verde Unit 2 lease costs $0.122015 Weather $0.03Outage costs $0.00 ‐ $0.02Palo Verde Unit 3 ($0.12)Load ($0.10) ‐ $0.00AFUDC ($0.07) ‐ ($0.06)Depreciation and property tax ($0.06) ‐ ($0.04)Interest expense ($0.05) ‐ ($0.04)FERC Generation Navopache contract ($0.03)El Paso Natural Gas FERC tariff refund ($0.03)Renewable rider ($0.03)
2015 2016E
$1.18
PNM EPS$1.12 ‐ $1.30
TNMP Guidance (Ongoing)
37
$0.52
2015 2016E
$0.49 ‐ $0.51
TNMP EPS
2015 – 2016E Key Performance Drivers Year‐over‐Year∆ EPS
TCOS rate relief $0.03 ‐ $0.04
Load $0.02 ‐ $0.03
O&M increases ($0.02) ‐ $0.00
Depreciation and property tax ($0.03) ‐ ($0.02)
Interest expense ($0.02)
Corporate and Other Guidance (Ongoing)
38
($0.06)
2015 2016E
($0.08) – ($0.07)
Corporate and Other EPS
2015 – 2016E Key Performance Drivers Year‐over‐Year∆ EPS
Interest savings on retired 9.25% debt $0.03
Interest expense on higher short‐term debt levels ($0.02) ‐ ($0.01)
San Juan Unit 4 restructuring agreement benefit $0.01
NMPRC Commissioners and Districts
39
District Name Term Ends Party
District 1 Karen Montoya, Vice Chair 2016 Democrat
District 2 Patrick Lyons 2018 Republican
District 3 Valerie Espinoza, Chairman 2016 Democrat
District 4 Lynda Lovejoy 2018 Democrat
District 5 Sandy Jones 2018 Democrat
NMPRC Districts and PNM Service Areas
PUCT Commissioners
40
Commissioners are appointed by the Governor of Texas. Length of term is determined by the Governor.
Name Term Began TermEnds Party
Donna NelsonChairman
Aug. 2008 Sep. 2021 Republican
Kenneth Anderson Sept. 2008 Aug. 2017 Republican
Brandy Marty Marquez Aug. 2013 Aug. 2019 Republican
TNMP Rates Compare Favorably in Texas
41
$‐
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
Oncor TNMP AEP North Centerpoint AEP Central
Residential Total Wires Charge for 1,000 kWh
Source: TDU tariffs for retail delivery service expected March 1, 2016
PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Capacity
42
Coal 27%
Nuclear20%
Natural Gas37%
Renewables16%
Capacity2018 ForecastedGeneration Mix
Coal 35%
Nuclear15%
Natural Gas35%
Renewables15%
Capacity2,787 MWAs of 12/31/2015
PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Energy
43
PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Energy
Coal 50%
Nuclear31%
Natural Gas12%
Renewables7%
Energy10,763 GWh
Based on 12 months ending 12/31/15
Coal 42%
Nuclear31%
Natural Gas17%
Renewables10%
Energy2018 ForecastedGeneration Mix
Investment in Renewable Energy
44
Portfolio Standard as a % of Retail Sales
15%2015
20% 2020
Renewable Rider Collection Methodology
Recovery of renewable investments and REC purchases permitted
through Renewable Energy Rider
New Mexico Renewable Energy ActStreamlined proceedings for approval of utilities’ renewable energy procurement
plans
Provides for recovery of program costs under approved procurement plan
Current Renewable Resources
PNM‐Owned Renewable Resources
107 MW of solar capacity(1)Solar battery storage facility
Purchase Power Agreements (PPA)204 MW PPA with NextEra Energy’s Wind Center102 MW PPA with NextEra Energy’s Red Mesa4 MW PPA with Lightning Dock Geothermal
Customer‐Owned Solar Facilities
47.5 MW of solar capacity
(1) The 40 MW of PNM‐owned solar capacity placed in service in 2015 will be recovered through base rates rather than through the Renewable Energy Rider.
PNM Plant EAF and Outages
45
2016 ‐ 2017 Outage Schedule
76.5%66.8%
91.8%
65.8%
78.1%
92.4%
San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde12 months ending 12/31/1412 months ending 12/31/15
Unit Duration in Days
Time Period
San Juan
1 7 Q1 2016
3 13 Q1 2016
2 16 Q1 2016
4 15 Q2 2016
Four Corners
5 7294
Q1‐Q2 2016Q4 2017
4 21 Q1‐Q2 2016
Palo Verde
1 3434
Q2 2016Q4 2017
3 34 Q4 2016
2 34 Q2 2017
PNM San Juan Generating Station Ownership and Participants
Unit TotalMW
PNM MW
PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership
1 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)
2 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)
3 497 248 50% Southern California Power Authority 41.8% (208 MW)Tri‐State 8.2% (41 MW)
4 507 195 38.457%
M‐S‐R Public Power Agency 28.8% (146 MW)City of Anaheim 10.04% (51 MW)City of Farmington 8.475% (43 MW)Los Alamos County 7.2% (37 MW)Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) 7.028% (36 MW)
Total 1,684 783
46
Unit Owner 2018 MW
1 PNMTucson Electric Power Company
170170
4 PNMCity of FarmingtonLos Alamos CountyUAMPSPNMR Development Company
3274336.535.565
Total 847
Exiting Participants:
Southern California Power Authority
Tri‐State
M‐S‐R Public Power Agency
City of Anaheim
Ownership Restructuring Changes
PNM Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 1 and 2 Leases
47
MW Owned vs. Leased
Lease Expiration• Unit 1: January 15, 2015; exercised option to extend leases to 2023• Unit 2: January 15, 2016; exercised right to purchase 3 leases in 2016 and option to extend one lease to 2024
Yearly Payment Amounts Total PV Unit 1 ‐ $33.1M
• Decreases to $16.5M per year beginning 2015 Total PV Unit 2 ‐ $23.7M
• The January purchase of 64MW in 2016 is included in the August General Rate Case Filing in addition to the previously owned 60 MW• One remaining lease is extended and its payment will drop from $3.3M to $1.6M beginning 2016
Unit 1
Owned 2.3% 30 MW
Leased 7.9% 104 MW
Total 10.2% 134 MW
Unit 2
Owned 9.5% 124 MW(1)
Leased 0.7% 10 MW
Total 10.2% 134 MW
(1) In January 2016, 64 MW of Unit 2 leases were purchased for $163.3M.
Environmental Control Equipment at Coal Units
48
Coal UnitPNM Share Capacity (MW)
Low NOx Burners/
Overfired Air
Activated Carbon
Injection (2)SNCR (3) SCR (3) Baghouse (4) Scrubbers
San Juan Unit 1 170 X X X X X
San Juan Unit 2 (1) 170 X X X X
San Juan Unit 3 (1) 248 X X X X
San Juan Unit 4 195 X X X X X
Four Corners Unit 4 100
Pre‐2000 low NOx burners‐considered outdated
By July 31, 2018 X X
Four Corners Unit 5 100
Pre‐2000 low NOx burners‐considered outdated
By July 31, 2018 X X
(1) San Juan Units 2 and 3 are expected to shut down on December 31, 2017.(2) Activated carbon injection systems reduce mercury emissions. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3‐year, $320M environmental upgrade.(3) SNCR refers to selective non‐catalytic reduction systems. SCR refers to selective catalytic reduction systems. Both systems reduce NOx emissions.(4) Baghouses collect flyash and other particulate matter. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3‐year, $320M environmental upgrade.
Impact of Environmental Regulation‐ SJGS
49
San Juan Generating Station Estimated Compliance Costs(PNM Share) Comments
Clean Air Act – Regional Haze(1)(State Alternative) – SNCR $78M SNCR technology on 2 units; Retire 2 units.
Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Included in SNCR(1)
Balanced draft will assist with NAAQS compliance. On October 1, 2015, EPA published the new primary and secondary ozone NAAQS of 70 ppb (from 75 ppb). EPA and NMED will initiate a 2‐year process to determine attainment/non‐attainment areas. It is uncertain at this time if San Juan County will become non‐attainment for ozone.
Mercury Rules (MATS) None to minimal Testing shows 99% or greater removal.
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash Minimal to some exposure
EPA published the final coal combustion residuals (CCR) rule on April 20, 2015. The rule regulates CCR as a non‐hazardous waste under Subtitle D of RCRA. SJGS operations are in compliance with the CCR rule which became effective October 19, 2015. The rule does not apply to placement of coal ash in mines – Office of Surface Mining (OSM) is expected to issue its own rule in 2016 and OSM will be influenced by EPA’s rule.
Clean Water Act – 316(b)Cooling Water Intake Structures Minimal to some exposure
On September 22, 2015, EPA granted approval to terminate SJGS’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (“NPDES”) permit. Although SJGS has been a zero discharge facility for several years, EPA required the plant to maintain a NPDES permit. The cooling water intake structure rule still applies as the plant operates under EPA’s NPDES Multi‐Sector General Stormwater Permit. PNM will work with EPA Region 6 to address any requirements with the next permit renewable which could be issued as soon as 2020.
Effluent Limitation Guidelines(Wastewater Discharge) None to minimal exposure
EPA published the final Steam Effluent Guidelines Rule on September 30, 2015. Because SJGS is zero discharge for wastewater and no longer holds an NPDES process water permit, minimum to no requirements are expected.
(1) Includes PNMR Development and Management Company’s 65 MW, in addition to PNM’s 132 MW, of San Juan Unit 4 included in the December BART approval which are to be acquired on December 31, 2017.
Impact of Environmental Regulation‐ Four Corners
50
Four Corners (Units 4 and 5) Estimated Compliance Costs(PNM Share) Comments
Clean Air Act – Regional Haze – SCR $94M Final BART determination filed with EPA on December 30, 2013. Impact to PNM: SCR controls for NOx on Units 4 & 5 by July 31, 2018.
Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Some to significant exposure
On October 1, 2015, EPA published the new primary and secondary NAAQS for ozone. The standard decreased from 75 ppb to 70 ppb. EPA(1) will initiate a 2‐year process to determine attainment/non‐attainment areas. It is uncertain at this time if San Juan County will become non‐attainment for ozone.
Mercury Rules (MATS) Slight exposure APS has determined that no additional equipment will be required.
Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash Slight exposure
EPA published the final coal combustion residuals (CCR) rule on April 20, 2015. The rule regulates CCR as a non‐hazardous waste under Subtitle D of RCRA. APSwill be required to make some modifications to their ash handling operations.
Clean Water Act – 316(b)Cooling Water Intake Structures Some exposure
APS does not expect the cost impacts of this rule to be material and is currently in discussions with EPA Region 9, the NPDES permit writer for Four Corners, to determine the scope of requirements which will dictate the costs to comply.
Effluent Limitation Guidelines(Wastewater Discharge) Some exposure
EPA published the final Steam Effluent Guidelines Rule on September 30, 2015. Effluent limitation guidelines restrictions will become effective with the next NPDES permit renewal, which occur in 5‐year intervals that arise between 2018 and 2023. Until a draft NPDES permit for Four Corners is proposed, APS is uncertain what will be required to control these discharges in compliance with the finalized effluent limitations at that facility.
(1) NMED does not have jurisdiction over Navajo Nation. It is uncertain if and how EPA will engage NMED in determining attainment/nonattainment designations for those areas of San Juan County that fall on the Navajo Nation.