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Investor Meetings March 2016

Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

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Page 1: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

Investor MeetingsMarch 2016

Page 2: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement

2

Investor Relations Contact Information

Jimmie Blotter, Director, Investor Relations Lisa Goodman, Manager, Investor RelationsU.S.   1‐505‐241‐2227 U.S.   1‐505‐241‐[email protected] [email protected]

Safe Harbor StatementStatements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources’ (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas‐New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.Readers are cautioned that all forward‐looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward‐looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by theforward‐looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward‐looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10‐K and 10‐Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein.

Non‐GAAP Financial MeasuresFor an explanation of the non‐GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings and ongoing earnings per diluted share), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm

Page 3: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

Strategic Overview

Page 4: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

PNM Resources Overview

4

Generation Resources and Service Territories

PNM Resources is a regulated electric utility holding company focused on providing a top quartile total return to shareholders

NYSE Ticker PNMMarket Cap $2.6B 

• Energy holding company• Based in Albuquerque, New Mexico

• Located in New Mexico• 516,658 customers• 15,025 miles transmission and distribution lines• 2,787 MW generation capacity• Top quartile reliability• Affordable rates

• Located in Texas• 243,461 end‐users• 9,220 miles transmission and distribution lines• Top quartile reliability• Affordable rates

Page 5: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

2015 Accomplishments and Highlights

5

• PNM BART plan approved by FERC and NMPRC• PNM Future Test Year definition resolved• PNM Transmission formula rate case settled• TNMP implemented two TCOS increases• TNMP AMS Reconciliation filing recommended for approval without exception

Regulatory Accomplishments

• PNM received 2015 ReliabilityOneTM Award for Outstanding Midsize Utility

• PNM Customer Satisfaction scores increased; NMPRC merited complaints sustained at 5‐year record‐low levels

• PNM increased generation capacity: 40 MW utility‐scale solar, 40 MW La Luz gas peaking station

• TNMP Energy Efficiency program receives ENERGY STAR’s Market Leader Award for 11th consecutive year

• TNMP achieved 91% of AMS meter installation; Outage Management System implemented

Operational Highlights

Page 6: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

PNM Resources Strategic Direction

6

Strategic GoalsEarn Authorized Return on Regulated BusinessesMaintain Solid Investment Grade Credit Ratings

Above Industry Average Earnings and Dividend Growth

• Investing in core capital, environmental control equipment and replacement power

Rate Base Growth

•Realizing earnings potential in business

•Continuing to earn our allowed returns

•Reducing regulatory lag

Earnings Growth •Sustaining and growing 

the dividend•Providing above‐average dividend growth

Dividend Growth

Page 7: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

Capital Forecast

7

2016 – 2019 Total Capital Plan: $1.7B PNM 2015‐2019 Rate Base CAGR: 5 ‐7%(1)

TNMP 2015‐2019 Rate Base CAGR: 7 ‐9%

(1)Includes the addition of PV3 to rate base, which does not have associated capital spending.(2)The additional 65 MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 included in the December BART approval is part of Corporate/Otherfor 2016‐2017 and PNM beginning in 2018.

Beginning in July 2016, depreciation rates reflect the full rate change proposed in the August 2015 General Rate Case filing.Amounts may not add due to rounding.

$298 

$163  $167 $93 

$99 

$132  $102 

$127 

$115 

$101 $114 

$117 

$36 

$19 $14 

$15 

2016 2017 2018 2019

(In millions)

PNM Generation PNM T&D TNMP Corporate/Other Depreciation

$547

$415 $398$352

Palo Verde     Unit 3 added to 

rate base

(2)(2)

Page 8: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

Rate Base Growth: BART Implementation

8

BART: Best Available Retrofit TechnologySNCR: Selective Non‐Catalytic ReductionCCN: Certificate of Convenience and Necessity

Additional 132 MW of San Juan Unit 4

CCN with an initial book value of zero plus SNCR and other capital investments

Coal Supply Agreement

Agreement with Westmoreland Coal Company through 2022 with ability to extend

Significantly improved pricing

Westmoreland purchased mine January 2016

Palo Verde Unit 3

San Juan Units 2 & 3

SNCR TechnologySNCR costs will be fully 

recovered by June 30, 2022; cost recovery determined in 

general rate case

Approval of retirement and  recovery of half of the 

undepreciated investment, estimated to be ~$128M

CCN for 134 MW with an initial rate base value equal to book value (~$1,118/kW)

Rate Base Growth(in millions)

PVNGS Unit 3 $113

SNCR and Balanced Draft on San Juan Units 1 and 4 $63

Retirement of San Juan Units 2 and 3 and CCN for Additional 132 MWs of San Juan Unit 4

($78)

Total $98

Approved December 16, 2015

Page 9: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

Earnings Growth: 2016 ‐ 2019 Potential Earnings Power

9

2016 Earnings Guidance 2019 Earnings Potential

EPS GrowthAvg Rate Base Return EPS Avg Rate 

Base

Allowed Return / 

Equity RatioEPS

PNM Retail (1) $2.4 B 7.3% ‐ 8.4% $1.08 ‐ $1.24 $2.5 B 10% / 50% $1.58 $0.50 ‐ $0.34PNM Renewables (2) $100 M 10.0% $0.06 $85 M 10% / 50% $0.05 ($0.01)PNM FERC Transmission (3) $180 M 8.1% ‐ 9.0% $0.09 ‐ $0.10 $270 M 10% / ~50% $0.12 ‐ $0.15 $0.03 ‐ $0.15

PV3 (4) ($0.14) Included in PNM Retail $0.14

Items not in rates (5) $0.03 ‐ $0.04 ($0.01) ‐ $0.05 ($0.04) ‐ $0.01

Total PNM $2.7 B $1.12 ‐ $1.30 $2.9 B $1.74 ‐ $1.83 $0.62 ‐ $0.53

TNMP (6) $700 M ~10.125% $0.49 ‐ $0.51 $860 M 10.125% / 45% $0.52 $0.03 ‐ $0.01

Corporate/Other (7) ($0.06) ‐ ($0.05) ($0.06) ‐ ($0.04) $0.00 ‐ $0.01

Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.55 ‐ $1.76 $3.8 B $2.20 ‐ $2.31 $0.65 ‐ $0.55(1) 2016 Guidance EPS range assumes implementation of the full rate request filed in the August 2015 General Rate Case, including a 10.5% ROE, between July and October 2016.  2019 Earnings Potential utilizes the currently authorized ROE of 10%.

(2) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (3) Transmission is recovered under the FERC formula rate methodology, which uses prior year average rate base and assumes mid‐year rate increases, at a 10% ROE. To reflect this inherent lag in the methodology, earnings potential represents the prior year average rate base and uses an ROE range of 7 – 9%.

(4) 2016 Guidance assumes a fully‐hedged market price of ~$26/MWh; a price of $43/MWh is required to break even.  PV3 is included in PNM rates beginning in 2018.(5) Consists primarily of Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains and losses, AFUDC, refined coal, certain incentive compensation, earnings in 2017 associated with the assets previously allocated to the Navopache contract, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 beginning in 2018.

(6) TNMP EPS includes $0.02 of CTC in 2016 and $0.01 in 2019. TNMP allowed returns are based on the most recently filed general rate case.  Changes in certain factors, including load growth and lower debt costs, present opportunities for further potential. 2019 Earnings Potential includes the refinancing of $172M of 9.5% debt for $0.02.

(7) Corporate/Other includes the capital expenditures and restructuring fees associated with the 65MW of San Juan Unit 4 that PNM is expected to acquire at the end of 2017.  Also includes short and intermediate term bank debt. 

This table is not intended to represent a forward‐looking projection of 2017 ‐ 2019 earnings guidance. 

Page 10: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

Earnings Growth: PNM General Rate Case

10

Requested revenue increase of $123.5 million• Based on Oct. 2015 – Sept. 2016 test year and 10.5% ROE• Average system impact of 5.4%, including the new coal contract and other changes

Rate Base

Rate Design•Customer Class Allocations

•Higher Fixed and Demand Charges

•Decoupling

Operations

• New Generation:• 40 MW Solar• 40 MW La Luz Gas Peaker

• Rio Bravo Generating Station • SNCR Equipment, including Balanced Draft• Palo Verde Unit 2 Lease Purchases• T&D Reliability and Core Investments• Depreciation Rate Change

• 50% Reduction of Remaining Palo Verde Units 1&2 Lease Payments

• Other O&M Changes• Energy Sales

Timeline

Rate case filed August 27, 2015

Hearings: March 14‐25, 2016(1)

Rates Effective: Q3 2016

(1) On March 2nd, the NMPRC extended the suspension period through July 31st and ordered the Hearing Examiner to vacate the scheduled hearing dates.  PNM has filed motions for rehearing and to preserve the March 14th – 25th hearing dates, requesting a Commission ruling by March 9th.  The Commission ruling combined with the Hearing Examiner’s Prehearing Conference, also on March 9th, will determine the schedule for hearings.

Page 11: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

Earnings and Dividend Growth: Above Industry Average

11

2012 – 2015 Ongoing EPS represents actual results2016E Ongoing EPS represents ongoing earnings guidance of $1.55 ‐ $1.76 per diluted share

$1.31  $1.41  $1.49 

$1.64 

$1.55 

$1.76 

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019EOngoing EPS

$0.58 $0.66 $0.74 $0.80 $0.88

Declared Dividends

Feb ‘13 Dec ‘13 Dec ‘14Feb ‘12 Dec ‘15

The annual common stock dividend was raised by 10% in December 2015 to $0.88 per share

Expect above industry average dividend growth in the future while targeting the 50% ‐ 60% payout ratio range

The Board will continue to evaluate the dividend on an annual basis, considering:• Sustainability and growth• Capital planning• Industry standards

Next dividend review in December 2016

Dividend rate: $0.88 (1)

Payout ratio:53% (2)

Dividend yield:2.8% (3)

Dividend rate: $0.88 (1)

Payout ratio:53% (2)

Dividend yield:2.8% (3)

(1) Equivalent annual rate(2) Assumes mid‐point of 2016 guidance (3) Based on 2/26/16 stock price of $31.82

7% ‐ 9% Earnings Growth

2015 ‐ 2019

Page 12: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

PNM Overview

Page 13: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

PNM: Recent Accomplishments

13

Progressing regulatory environment• Retail Renewable Rider implemented in August of 2012 with                                         

rates reset annually; 2015 revenue was $43M• Filed settlement on FERC Transmission formula rate case with 

10% ROE; rates in effect, subject to refund• Approval of San Juan Generation Station Plan (BART) by FERC and NMPRC

Operational highlights• 2015 ReliabilityOne Award recipient, recognizing exceptional reliability 

among midsized investor‐owned utilities• Customer satisfaction metrics reflect significant 5‐year gains• San Juan Restructuring Agreement and Coal Supply agreements finalized, 

customer savings in place• Increased generation capacity: 40MW utility‐scale solar, 40 MW La Luz gas 

peaking station

Increasing credit ratings• Credit ratings raised by Moody’s to Baa2 with a stable issuer outlook and 

S&P to BBB+ with a stable issuer outlook

Page 14: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

PNM Load Growth and Economic Conditions

14

Regulated Retail Energy Sales (weather‐normalized)

(1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2015

PNM

% of 2015 Sales

Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014

2015 vs.  2014

Residential 39% 0.0% 0.0%

Commercial 46% (1.9%) (2.2%)

Industrial 12% (4.0%) (2.7%)

Total Retail (1.3%) (1.4%)

2016 Load Forecast: (2%) – 0%

Average Customer Growth

Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014

2015 vs.  2014

2016 Forecast

PNM 0.8% 0.7% 0.5%

1.6%

2.1%

‐1.0%‐0.5%0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%

12/12

01/13

02/13

03/13

04/13

05/13

06/13

07/13

08/13

09/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

01/14

02/14

03/14

04/14

05/14

06/14

07/14

08/14

09/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

01/15

02/15

03/15

04/15

05/15

06/15

07/15

08/15

09/15

10/15

11/15

12/15

Employment Growth(1)12‐Month Rolling Average

Albuquerque U.S.

Page 15: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

PNM Rate Affordability

15PNM rates reflect current rates (2014) and the combined impacts of the August 2015 General Rate Case filing, existing riders and fuel clause, and the new coal contract with Westmoreland Coal Company (2016).  All others reflect U.S. Energy Information Administration's Forecasted Residential Rate increases through 2014.

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Est.

Ave

rage

201

4 R

esid

entia

l Ele

ctric

Bill

Est.

2014

Med

ian

Hou

seho

ld In

com

e

PNM's Residential Affordability Continues to be Among the Best in the Nation

Sources: EIA Form 826, US Census Bureau

U.S. Average: 2.5%

Page 16: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

PNM Regulatory Accomplishments

16

Subject Matter Accomplishments

BART• NMPRC approved plan to retire San Juan Units 2 and 3 at December 31, 2017 and install 

SNCR on San Juan Units 1 and 42011 General Rate Case • NMPRC approved $72.1 million rate increase; 10.0% ROE (Aug. 2011)

Renewable Riders

• NMPRC approved Renewable Energy Rider; rates reset annually to recover projected and true‐up procurement costs (Aug. 2012)

• NMPRC approved revised Sky Blue Program using blend of solar and wind for voluntary customer purchases (Dec. 2012)

Generation Plant• NMPRC approved acquisition of the (formerly Delta‐Person) Rio Bravo Plant (June 2013)• NMPRC approved CCN for the La Luz Energy Center (June 2014)

Fuel Clause • NMPRC approved continuation of fuel clause for four years and quarterly fuel clause factor 

resets (April 2014)

Renewable Resources• NMPRC has approved construction and cost recovery of 67 MW of PNM‐owned solar 

facilities; additional 40 MW of 2015 approved construction included in August 2015 General Rate Case Filing 

Energy Efficiency Rider• NMPRC approved recovery of stipulated incentive amount concurrently with EE program 

costs, subject only to meeting statutory cumulative energy savings (April 2015)

Financing• On June 29, 2015, PNM filed for authorization to issued up to $300 million in Senior 

Unsecured Notes; NMPRC approved received on August 5, 2015

2010 Transmission Rate Case• Settlement filed  (July 2012)• FERC approved Settlement (Jan. 2013)

Generation Rate Case• Application filed to serve Navopache Electric Cooperative (Sept. 2011)• Settlement filed; imputed ROE is 10.0% (Dec. 2012)• FERC approved Settlement  (April 2013)

2012 Transmission Rate Case (Current)• Application filed (Dec. 2012)• Settlement filed; imputed ROE is 10.0% (March 2015)• Settlement is currently pending; rates implemented, subject to refund

NMPR

CFERC

Page 17: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

PNM:  Pathway to Continued Success

17

Earn allowed return• Minimize regulatory lag through timely rate case filings• Synchronize revenues and expenses• Use future test year

Continue to maintain strong investment grade credit metrics

Continue to control costs

Page 18: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

TNMP Overview

Page 19: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

TNMP: Recent Accomplishments

19

TCOS and DCOS filings provide the ability to recover                            transmission and distribution cost of service investments on                                 a timely basis

• TCOS filing requesting additional revenue of $1.4M was approved with rates effective September 10, 2015

Energy efficiency program costs collected through Energy Efficiency Cost Recovery Factor

• Received ENERGY STAR Market Leader Award for 11th consecutive year

• TNMP has achieved performance bonuses each year since 2010

Smart meter rider approval led to implementation of $12M surcharge collected 2011‐2023

Credit ratings increased by Moody’s to A1 with a stable outlook and S&P to A with a stable outlook

Page 20: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · Investor Meetings March 2016. Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement 2 Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie

TNMP Load Growth and Economic Conditions

20

Regulated Retail Energy Sales (weather‐normalized)

(1) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2015

TNMP

% of 2015 Sales

Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014

2015 vs.  2014

Residential 51% 6.8% 4.2%

Commercial 46% (1.0%) 1.4%

Total Retail 2.4% 2.6%

2016 Load Forecast: 2% – 3%

Average Customer Growth

Q4 2015 vs. Q4 2014

2015 vs.  2014

2016 Forecast

TNMP 1.5% 1.5% 1.0%

3.5%

2.0%2.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

12/12

01/13

02/13

03/13

04/13

05/13

06/13

07/13

08/13

09/13

10/13

11/13

12/13

01/14

02/14

03/14

04/14

05/14

06/14

07/14

08/14

09/14

10/14

11/14

12/14

01/15

02/15

03/15

04/15

05/15

06/15

07/15

08/15

09/15

10/15

11/15

12/15

Employment Growth(1)12‐Month Rolling Average

Dallas Houston U.S.

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TNMP Regulatory Accomplishments

21

Subject Matter AccomplishmentsPUCT:

Transmission Cost of Service (TCOS)

2016• Filed $4.3M increase in January, expected to be effective March 20162015• PUCT approved $1.4M increase, effective September 2015• PUCT approved $4.4M increase, effective March 20152014• PUCT approved $4.2M increase, effective September 2014• PUCT approved $2.9M increase, effective March 20142013• PUCT approved $2.9M increase, effective March 20132012• PUCT approved $2.5M increase, effective September 2012

Advanced Metering Systems (AMS) • PUCT approved $12M rate rider, effective August 2011

General Rate Case • PUCT approved $10.25M base rate increase, implemented February 2011

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TNMP: Pathway to Continued Success

22

Continue to earn allowed rate of return through timely execution of transmission cost of service and general rate case filings• Additional investments in the business to support strong growth

Continue to maintain strong investment grade credit metrics

Continue to control costs

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Financial Overview

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FY 2015 Financial Summary

24

$1.49 

$1.64 $0.08  $0.05  $0.02

2014 2015

Ongoing EPS

PNMTNMP Corporate

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PNM and TNMP:  2015 vs 2014 EPS (Ongoing)

25

PNM

TNMP

2015 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS

Palo Verde Unit 1 leases at half price $0.12AFUDC $0.09Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains $0.05Refined coal $0.03El Paso natural gas tariff $0.03Renewable rate relief $0.02Weather $0.022003 – 2008 IRS Settlement $0.02Other $0.02Rio Bravo purchase $0.01

Load ($0.07)Outage costs ($0.06)Depreciation and property tax ($0.05)Transmission margins ($0.04)O&M increases ($0.04)FERC Generation Gallup contract ($0.03)Exploration of alternative San Juan fuel supply contracts ($0.02)Interest expense  ($0.02)

2015 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPSTCOS rate relief $0.06Load $0.03

Depreciation and property tax ($0.03)Other ($0.01)

$0.47 $0.52

2014 2015

$1.10 $1.18

2014 2015

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2016 Guidance

26

(1) EPS range assumes implementation of the full rate request filed in the August 2015 General Rate Case, including a 10.5% ROE, between July and October 2016.(2) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (3) Transmission is recovered under the FERC formula rate methodology, which uses prior year average rate base and assumes mid‐year rate increases, at a 10% ROE. (4) 2016 Guidance assumes a fully‐hedged market price of ~$26/MWh ; a price of $43/MWh is required to break even(5) Consists primarily of Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains and losses, AFUDC, refined coal, certain incentive compensation, and earnings in 2016 associated with the Navopache contract.

(6) TNMP EPS includes $0.02 of CTC, which will be fully amortized in 2020. TNMP Earnings Potential is based on allowed returns in the most recently filed general rate case.  Changes in certain factors, including load growth and lower debt costs, present opportunities for further potential. 

(7) Corporate/Other includes the capital expenditures and restructuring fees associated with the 65MW of San Juan Unit 4 that PNM is expected to acquire at the end of 2017.  Also includes short and intermediate term bank debt. 

2016 Earnings Guidance

Avg Rate Base Return EPS

PNM Retail (1) $2.4 B 7.3% ‐ 8.4% $1.08 ‐ $1.24PNM Renewables (2) $100 M 10.0% $0.06PNM FERC Transmission (3) $180 M 8.1% ‐ 9.0% $0.09 ‐ $0.10

PV3 (4) ($0.14)

Items not in rates (5) $0.03 ‐ $0.04

Total PNM $2.7 B $1.12 ‐ $1.30

TNMP (6) $700 M ~10.125% $0.49 ‐ $0.51Corporate/Other (7) ($0.06) ‐ ($0.05)

Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.55 ‐ $1.76

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PNM Rate Case Assumptions

27

2016PNM Rate Case Assumptions

Rate case filed with 10.5% ROE

Each 25 bps difference in ROE (annually) +/‐ $0.04

Rate implementation could occur anytime between July 1 and Oct. 1 (assumes 10.5% ROE and $123.5M increase in revenue requirement)

Up to $0.40

July 1 implementation $0.40

Aug. 1 implementation $0.32

Sep. 1 implementation $0.25

Oct. 1 implementation $0.19

Rate Case Schedule:January 29, 2016 Staff and Intervenor Testimony due

February 22, 2016 Rebuttal Testimony due

March 9, 2016 Pre‐Hearing Conference

March 14 ‐ 25, 2016 Hearings

Q3 2016 Effective Date

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Liquidity and Capital Structure

28

PNM TNMPCorporate/

OtherPNM Resources Consolidated

Financing Capacity as of February 19, 2016 (In millions)Total Capacity(1) $450.0 $75.0 $300.0 $825.0

Less short‐term debt(1) and LOC balances 99.4 15.1 112.3 226.8

Plus invested cash ‐ ‐ 1.9 1.9

Total Available Liquidity $350.6 $59.9 $189.6 $600.1

Target cap structures:  50/50 at PNM, 55/45 at TNMP

(1)Excludes intercompany debt and term loans

(in millions) Dec 31, 2014 Dec 31, 2015

PNM $1,490.7 $1,580.7

TNMP 370.7 420.1

Corporate/Other 219.4 341.5

Consolidated $2,080.7 $2,342.5

Total Debt(2)

$150$125

$507

$100

$859

$172

$173

2016 2017‐2018 2019‐2020 Beyond 2020

Long‐term Debt MaturitiesPrincipal Amounts

(in millions)

Corporate PNM TNMP(2) Excludes inter‐company debtAmounts may not add due to rounding

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Credit Ratings

29

Credit Ratings

Moody’s S&PPNM Resources Baa3(1) BBB+(1)

PNM(2) Baa2 BBB+(2)

TNMP A1(3) A(3)

Issuer Outlook Stable Stable

Rate relief, cost control, and tax benefits keep FFO to Debt well within                 Moody’s Baa investment grade target range of 13% to 22%

(1) Issuer/Corporate rating(2) Senior unsecured(3) Senior secured

19% 19%17%

13%

22%

2013 2014 2015

PNM Resources FFO to Debt

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PNM Resources Summary

30

Continued earnings and dividend growth make PNM Resources an attractive investment

Potential earnings growth of 7% ‐ 9% through 2019

Expected rate base CAGR:• PNM: 5% ‐ 7% through 2019• TNMP: 7% ‐ 9% through 2019

Other potential investments: • Renewable resources• Transmission investments• Grid enhancements• Purchase remaining 114 MWs of Palo Verde leases

Continued above industry‐average dividend growth• Option to increase target payout ratio range after heightened capital spending 

is complete

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Appendix

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2017 and 2018 Potential Earnings Power

32

Allowed Return / 

Equity Ratio

2017 Earnings Potential 2018 Earnings Potential

Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate 

Base EPS

PNM Retail (1) 10% / 50% $2.4 B $1.50 $2.6 B $1.59

PNM Renewables (2) 10% / 50% $95 M $0.06 $90 M $0.06

PNM FERC Transmission (3) 10% / ~50% $180 M $0.08‐$0.10 $245 M $0.11‐$0.14

PV3 (4) ($0.13) Included in PNM Retail

Items not in rates (5) $0.01‐$0.04 ($0.02)‐$0.01

Total PNM $2.7 B $1.52 ‐ $1.57 $2.9 B $1.74 ‐ $1.80

TNMP (6) 10.125% / 45% $770 M $0.46 $810 M $0.48

Corporate/Other (7) ($0.06)‐($0.04) ($0.06)‐($0.04)

Total PNM Resources $3.4 B $1.92 ‐ $1.99 $3.7 B $2.16 ‐ $2.24(1) The August 2015 General Rate Case filing proposes a 10.5% ROE. The currently authorized 10% ROE has been used for this presentation.(2) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (3) Transmission is recovered under the FERC formula rate methodology, which uses prior year average rate base and assumes mid‐year rate increases, at a 10% ROE. To reflect this inherent lag in the methodology, earnings potential represents the prior year average rate base and uses an ROE range of 7 – 9%.

(4) 2017 Earnings Potential assumes a forward market price of $28/MWh; a price of $44/MWh is required to break even. PV3 is included in PNM rates beginning in 2018.(5) Consists primarily of Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust gains and losses, AFUDC, refined coal, certain incentive compensation, earnings in 2017 associated with the assets previously allocated to the Navopache contract, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 beginning in 2018.

(6) TNMP Earnings Potential includes $0.02 of CTC in 2017 and 2018. TNMP allowed returns are based on the most recently filed general rate case.  Changes in certain factors, including load growth and lower debt costs, present opportunities for further potential.

(7) Corporate/Other includes the capital expenditures and restructuring fees associated with the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4 before 2018 and short and intermediate term bank debt.

This table is not intended to represent a forward‐looking projection of 2017 or 2018 earnings guidance. 

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PNM General Rate Case Drivers and Other Impacts to Customer Rates

33

Revenue requirement driven by rate base additions and energy sales

Amount (in millions)

Rate Base $95Energy Sales 31Other:

50% Reduction of Remaining Palo Verde Lease Payments (17)Change in ROE from 10% to 10.5% 6Re‐allocation of Gallup costs 10Fuel Handling (Moved to Fuel Clause) (7)Other O&M Changes 3.5

Subtotal Other $(4.5)Total Non‐Fuel Revenue Deficiency $121.5

Projected Fuel 2.0Total Revenue Deficiency per Filing $123.5Other Impacts to Customer Rates(1) (71.5)Increase to Annual Customer Rates $52.0

(1) Includes the combined impacts of the new coal contract with Westmoreland Coal Company (pending BART approval), existing riders and fuel clause that begin as early as January 1, 2016.

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PNM General Rate Case Drivers: Rate Base

34

RateBase

Additions

IncrementalRevenue 

Requirement (Retail share, in millions)

Solar (40 MW)  $65 $11 

La Luz Gas Peaker (40 MW) 50 8

Rio Bravo Generating Station (138 MW)(1) 32 ‐

San Juan SNCR Equipment & Balanced Draft 58 9 

Palo Verde Unit 2 Lease Purchase (64 MW) 144 2 

Core Rate Base Growth 251 17 

Five Months of CWIP(2) 55 6

Core Depreciation and Property Taxes 21 

Update to Depreciation Rates 21 

Total increase due to rate base items $655 $95(1) Acquisition of Rio Bravo Generating Station is included in filing, but is neutral from a revenue requirement perspective(2) Represents Construction Work in Progress (CWIP) assets placed into service between October 2016 and February 2017

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PNM Customer Rate Impact as of July 1, 2016

35

Major Customer Class Rate % Increase  per Request

Rate % IncreaseIncluding Fuel and Other Changes (1)

Residential 15.8% 7.9%

Small Power 14.4% 7.0%

General Power 14.5% 5.2%

Large Power 14.2% 2.8%

Large Power >= 8,000kW 9.4% (2.6)%

Universities 9.3% (2.4)%

Manufacturing 9.4% (4.8)%

System Total 14.4% 5.4%(1) Includes the combined impacts of the August 2015 General Rate Case filing, existing riders and fuel clause, and the new coal contract with Westmoreland Coal Company (pending BART approval).

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PNM Guidance (Ongoing) 

36

2015 – 2016E Other Key Performance Drivers Year‐over‐Year∆ EPS

Elimination of Palo Verde Unit 2 lease costs $0.122015 Weather $0.03Outage costs $0.00 ‐ $0.02Palo Verde Unit 3 ($0.12)Load ($0.10) ‐ $0.00AFUDC ($0.07) ‐ ($0.06)Depreciation and property tax ($0.06) ‐ ($0.04)Interest expense ($0.05) ‐ ($0.04)FERC Generation Navopache contract ($0.03)El Paso Natural Gas FERC tariff refund ($0.03)Renewable rider ($0.03)

2015 2016E

$1.18

PNM EPS$1.12 ‐ $1.30

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TNMP Guidance (Ongoing) 

37

$0.52 

2015 2016E

$0.49 ‐ $0.51

TNMP EPS

2015 – 2016E Key Performance Drivers Year‐over‐Year∆ EPS

TCOS rate relief $0.03 ‐ $0.04

Load $0.02 ‐ $0.03

O&M increases ($0.02) ‐ $0.00

Depreciation and property tax ($0.03) ‐ ($0.02)

Interest expense ($0.02)

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Corporate and Other Guidance (Ongoing)

38

($0.06)

2015 2016E

($0.08) – ($0.07)

Corporate and Other EPS

2015 – 2016E Key Performance Drivers Year‐over‐Year∆ EPS

Interest savings on retired 9.25% debt $0.03

Interest expense on higher short‐term debt levels ($0.02) ‐ ($0.01)

San Juan Unit 4 restructuring agreement benefit $0.01

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NMPRC Commissioners and Districts

39

District Name Term Ends Party

District 1 Karen Montoya, Vice Chair 2016 Democrat

District 2 Patrick Lyons 2018 Republican

District 3 Valerie Espinoza, Chairman 2016 Democrat

District 4 Lynda Lovejoy 2018 Democrat

District 5 Sandy Jones 2018 Democrat

NMPRC Districts and PNM Service Areas

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PUCT Commissioners

40

Commissioners are appointed by the Governor of Texas.  Length of term is determined by the Governor.

Name Term Began TermEnds Party

Donna NelsonChairman

Aug. 2008 Sep. 2021 Republican

Kenneth Anderson Sept. 2008 Aug. 2017 Republican

Brandy Marty Marquez Aug. 2013 Aug. 2019 Republican

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TNMP Rates Compare Favorably in Texas

41

 $‐

 $10

 $20

 $30

 $40

 $50

 $60

Oncor TNMP AEP North Centerpoint AEP Central

Residential Total Wires Charge for 1,000 kWh

Source:  TDU tariffs for retail delivery service expected March 1, 2016

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PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Capacity

42

Coal 27%

Nuclear20%

Natural Gas37%

Renewables16%

Capacity2018 ForecastedGeneration Mix 

Coal 35%

Nuclear15%

Natural Gas35%

Renewables15%

Capacity2,787 MWAs of 12/31/2015

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PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Energy

43

PNM Diversified Generation Portfolio: Energy

Coal 50%

Nuclear31%

Natural Gas12%

Renewables7%

Energy10,763 GWh

Based on 12 months ending 12/31/15

Coal 42%

Nuclear31%

Natural Gas17%

Renewables10%

Energy2018 ForecastedGeneration Mix 

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Investment in Renewable Energy

44

Portfolio Standard as a % of Retail Sales

15%2015

20% 2020

Renewable Rider Collection Methodology

Recovery of renewable investments and REC purchases permitted 

through Renewable Energy Rider 

New Mexico Renewable Energy ActStreamlined proceedings for approval of utilities’ renewable energy procurement 

plans

Provides for recovery of program costs under approved procurement plan

Current Renewable Resources

PNM‐Owned Renewable Resources

107 MW of solar capacity(1)Solar battery storage facility

Purchase Power Agreements (PPA)204 MW PPA with NextEra Energy’s Wind Center102 MW PPA with NextEra Energy’s Red Mesa4 MW PPA with Lightning Dock Geothermal

Customer‐Owned Solar Facilities

47.5 MW of solar capacity

(1) The 40 MW of PNM‐owned solar capacity placed in service in 2015 will be recovered through base rates rather than through the Renewable Energy Rider.

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PNM Plant EAF and Outages

45

2016 ‐ 2017 Outage Schedule

76.5%66.8%

91.8%

65.8%

78.1%

92.4%

San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde12 months ending 12/31/1412 months ending 12/31/15

Unit Duration in Days

Time Period

San Juan

1 7 Q1 2016

3 13 Q1 2016

2 16 Q1 2016

4 15 Q2 2016

Four Corners

5 7294

Q1‐Q2 2016Q4 2017

4 21 Q1‐Q2 2016

Palo Verde

1 3434

Q2 2016Q4 2017

3 34 Q4 2016

2 34 Q2 2017

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PNM San Juan Generating Station Ownership and Participants

Unit TotalMW

PNM MW

PNM Ownership Other Participants/Ownership

1 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)

2 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)

3 497 248 50% Southern California Power Authority 41.8% (208 MW)Tri‐State 8.2% (41 MW)

4 507 195 38.457%

M‐S‐R Public Power Agency 28.8% (146 MW)City of Anaheim 10.04% (51 MW)City of Farmington 8.475% (43 MW)Los Alamos County 7.2% (37 MW)Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems (UAMPS) 7.028% (36 MW)

Total 1,684 783

46

Unit Owner 2018 MW

1 PNMTucson Electric Power Company

170170

4 PNMCity of FarmingtonLos Alamos CountyUAMPSPNMR Development Company

3274336.535.565

Total 847

Exiting Participants:

Southern California Power Authority

Tri‐State

M‐S‐R Public Power Agency

City of Anaheim

Ownership Restructuring Changes

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PNM Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station Unit 1 and 2 Leases

47

MW Owned vs. Leased

Lease Expiration• Unit 1:  January 15, 2015; exercised option to extend leases to 2023• Unit 2:  January 15, 2016; exercised right to purchase 3 leases in 2016 and option to extend one lease to 2024

Yearly Payment Amounts Total PV Unit 1 ‐ $33.1M

• Decreases to $16.5M per year beginning 2015 Total PV Unit 2 ‐ $23.7M

• The January purchase of 64MW in 2016 is included in the August General Rate Case Filing in addition to the previously owned 60 MW• One remaining lease is extended and its payment will drop from $3.3M to $1.6M beginning 2016

Unit 1

Owned 2.3% 30 MW

Leased  7.9% 104 MW

Total 10.2% 134 MW

Unit 2

Owned 9.5% 124 MW(1)

Leased  0.7% 10 MW

Total 10.2% 134 MW

(1) In January 2016, 64 MW of Unit 2 leases were purchased for $163.3M.

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Environmental Control Equipment at Coal Units

48

Coal UnitPNM Share Capacity (MW)

Low NOx Burners/ 

Overfired Air

Activated Carbon 

Injection (2)SNCR (3) SCR (3) Baghouse (4) Scrubbers

San Juan Unit 1 170 X X X X X

San Juan Unit 2 (1) 170 X X X X

San Juan Unit 3 (1) 248 X X X X

San Juan Unit 4 195 X X X X X

Four Corners Unit 4 100

Pre‐2000 low NOx burners‐considered outdated

By July 31, 2018 X X

Four Corners Unit 5 100

Pre‐2000 low NOx burners‐considered outdated

By July 31, 2018 X X

(1) San Juan Units 2 and 3 are expected to shut down on December 31, 2017.(2) Activated carbon injection systems reduce mercury emissions.  For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3‐year, $320M environmental upgrade.(3) SNCR refers to selective non‐catalytic reduction systems.  SCR refers to selective catalytic reduction systems.  Both systems reduce NOx emissions.(4) Baghouses collect flyash and other particulate matter.  For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3‐year, $320M environmental upgrade.  

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Impact of Environmental Regulation‐ SJGS 

49

San Juan Generating Station Estimated Compliance Costs(PNM Share) Comments

Clean Air Act – Regional Haze(1)(State Alternative) – SNCR $78M SNCR technology on 2 units; Retire 2 units.

Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)     Included in SNCR(1)

Balanced draft will assist with NAAQS compliance. On October 1, 2015, EPA published the new primary and secondary ozone NAAQS of 70 ppb (from 75 ppb). EPA and NMED will initiate a 2‐year process to determine attainment/non‐attainment areas. It is uncertain at this time if San Juan County will become non‐attainment for ozone.

Mercury Rules (MATS) None to minimal Testing shows 99% or greater removal.

Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash  Minimal to some exposure

EPA published the final coal combustion residuals (CCR) rule on April 20, 2015. The rule regulates CCR as a non‐hazardous waste under Subtitle D of RCRA. SJGS operations are in compliance with the CCR rule which became effective October 19, 2015. The rule does not apply to placement of coal ash in mines – Office of Surface Mining (OSM) is expected to issue its own rule in 2016 and OSM will be influenced by EPA’s rule.

Clean Water Act – 316(b)Cooling Water Intake Structures Minimal to some exposure

On September 22, 2015, EPA granted approval to terminate SJGS’s National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (“NPDES”) permit. Although SJGS has been a zero discharge facility for several years, EPA required the plant to maintain a NPDES permit. The cooling water intake structure rule still applies as the plant operates under EPA’s NPDES Multi‐Sector General Stormwater Permit.  PNM will work with EPA Region 6 to address any requirements with the next permit renewable which could be issued as soon as 2020. 

Effluent Limitation Guidelines(Wastewater Discharge) None to minimal exposure

EPA published the final Steam Effluent Guidelines Rule on September 30, 2015. Because SJGS is zero discharge for wastewater and no longer holds an NPDES process water permit, minimum to no requirements are expected.

(1) Includes PNMR Development and Management Company’s 65 MW, in addition to PNM’s 132 MW, of San Juan Unit 4 included in the December BART approval which are to be acquired on December 31, 2017.

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Impact of Environmental Regulation‐ Four Corners

50

Four Corners (Units 4 and 5) Estimated Compliance Costs(PNM Share) Comments

Clean Air Act – Regional Haze – SCR $94M Final BART determination filed with EPA on December 30, 2013. Impact to PNM: SCR controls for NOx on Units 4 & 5 by July 31, 2018.

Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Some to significant exposure

On October 1, 2015, EPA published the new primary and secondary NAAQS for ozone.  The standard decreased from 75 ppb to 70 ppb. EPA(1) will initiate a 2‐year process to determine attainment/non‐attainment areas. It is uncertain at this time if San Juan County will become non‐attainment for ozone. 

Mercury Rules (MATS)  Slight exposure APS has determined that no additional equipment will be required.

Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash Slight exposure

EPA published the final coal combustion residuals (CCR) rule on April 20, 2015. The rule regulates CCR as a non‐hazardous waste under Subtitle D of RCRA. APSwill be required to make some modifications to their ash handling operations. 

Clean Water Act – 316(b)Cooling Water Intake Structures Some exposure

APS does not expect the cost impacts of this rule to be material and is currently in discussions with EPA Region 9, the NPDES permit writer for Four Corners, to determine the scope of requirements which will dictate the costs to comply. 

Effluent Limitation Guidelines(Wastewater Discharge) Some exposure

EPA published the final Steam Effluent Guidelines Rule on September 30, 2015. Effluent limitation guidelines restrictions will become effective with the next NPDES permit renewal, which occur in 5‐year intervals that arise between 2018 and 2023. Until a draft NPDES permit for Four Corners is proposed, APS is uncertain what will be required to control these discharges in compliance with the finalized effluent limitations at that facility. 

(1) NMED does not have jurisdiction over Navajo Nation. It is uncertain if and how EPA will engage NMED in determining attainment/nonattainment designations for those areas of San Juan County that fall on the Navajo Nation.