Investment Outlook - axys-group. · PDF fileInvestment Outlook . 06-Dec-2013 . ... to the market value of its underlying holdings ... Barclays and UBS were implicated but not

Fast Track Forward to

Trades & Movements by Sector Theme of the Week

Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com

[Rs M]

Investment Outlook06-Dec-2013

Equity Equity

170.00 6.3

MK

1.68MASC

9.9

[%]Most

Active

Fixed IncomeMarket IndicesWeekly Prices:

Listed Corporate Bonds

Most Active

Official ListMauritian Yield Curve

Market AnnouncementsDEM

PLIBORDividend Declarations

Earnings:

CIM 8.8

Δ WoWLaggers

▼

-4.3 20.4

PAD

1,349 UTIN 38.821.20 -4.9 8.5UFL 8.90

ALEX-20 ▲ USD/MUR

LMLC

[# k]-6.6 SBM

[Rs]VITAL

Latest[%]

Leaders

155.00

Currency

15.00

1Yr T-Bill ▼0.49% 1,005.82 -0.16% 30.75

NMHL

SBM

415

3,529-5.4 UTIN 39.3

ROCK

CIEL

43.1

-0.3% 3.854.87 -0.05 -0.01

37,347 MCB

Volume

20.0

ValueLatest Δ WoW

CSE[Rs]

Technical Listings NAVs

1.30 -3.7

Foreign Pariticipation

News Snippets

Share of TMT

FX/MUR Spot Rates

54.00

Domestic FX Market Watch

MDITENLC

7.00

7.7 MFRE 438

DEM

WoW Movements

Official List

MERIT

6.70

Mkt Summary & Highlights

Buoyed by improving banks,conglomerates, and hotels the ALEX-20 jumped to 1,005.82pts (+0.5%), theALCAPEX-12 edged up to 1,325.79pts(+0.1%), and the SEMDEX improved to2,037.55pts (+0.3%).

The ALCAPEX-12’s smaller gain isreflective of the capping on the banksto ~10% of the index.

750

850

950

1,050

Inde

x [p

ts]

-3

-2

-1

0

1

Δ% in

USD

/MU

R si

nce

30-J

un-1

2

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

1Yr-

GM

TB [%

]

40%

27%

14%

8%

5% 6% FIN

MSCH

TL

INVH

PROP

Others

0.0

-1.2

0.8

0.2

1.3 1.4

-1.50

-0.75

0.00

0.75

1.50

FIN MSCH TL INVH PROP

WoW

Chn

age

[%]

1

Market Indices

MC [Rs bn] ▲ ▲

Δ MC [%] ▲ ▲TO [Rs M] ▲ ▲FP [%] ▼ ▲NFP [Rs M] ▼ ▼PER [x] ▲ ▲DY [%] ▼ ▼PBV [x] ▲ ▲ROE [%] ▼ ▲

L HALCAPEX-12ALEX-20SEM-7Dow Jones IA*Nasdaq*S&P 500*FTSE 100*CAC 40*DAX*All OrdinariesNikkei 225Hang SengBSE 30

Foreign Participation


34.9%-1.23% 27.3% 26.2%

20,979

20.6%

— 52Wk

▼

Key:MC = Mkt Cap.; Δ MC = Change in Mkt Cap,; TO =Turnover; FP = Foreign Participation; NFP = Net ForeignPurchases; PER = Price-Earnings Ratio; DY = Div. Yield;PBV = Price-Book (Net Asset Value) Ratio; ROE = Returnon Equity.

8.0%

13.2% 13.8%

0.49% 20.4% 22.5%

-1.71% 22.3%

174.10.5

148.126.1-6.3 14.02.621.06

7.6

263.20.5

231.319.8-1.6 16.72.750.99

5.9

Indices

▲▲

▼

ChangeWeek Ended

-4.71%

-0.29% 36.2%

1 Wk YTD 52 Wks

▼▼

▲ 397.58 396.81

6,6544,100 4,302

1,005.82

▼▼

13.8%-2.31% 47.2% 60.6%

0.14%

0.19% 17.9% 19.0%

20.9% 24.0%

-3.22% 19.3%9,387

-2.35% 9.7% 10.1%

1,323.971,000.95

21.0%

▼

29-Nov6-Dec1,325.79

* Previous day's closing prices

15,822 16,0974,033 4,0451,785 1,8076,498

20,792 0.90%-0.58%

9,085

23,8818.0%

-2.41% 11.2%

4.8% 7.0%▼▼

Activity Spread Net Flows

▲

06-Dec-2013Investment Outlook

5,186 5,31415,300 15,66223,743

All SEM Liquid 20

85

100

115

130

145

160

Indi

ces

reba

sed

to 1

00 o

n 3

0-Se

p-20

10

SEM-7 S&P 500ALEX-20 ALCAPEX-12

38%

20%

17%

6% 4%

15% SBMNMHLMCBPADROCK

-7

-18

-4

12

6

-20

-10

0

10

SBM NMHL MCB PAD ROCK

Net

For

eign

pur

chas

es [R

s m

2

Investment Outlook 06-Dec-2013

Melvyn Chung Kai To AXYS Stockbroking Ltd, Bowen Square, Dr Ferrière Street, Port-Louis | BRN C07007947 Bhavik Desai Tel (230) 213 3475 | Fax (230) 213 3478 | Email [email protected] | www.axysstockbroking.com

Summary & Highlights Mostly Positive except for Property The local bourse bucked overseas trends which saw most major indices close in the red. Buoyed by improving banks, conglomerates, and hotels the ALEX-20 jumped to 1,005.82pts (+0.5%), the ALCAPEX-12 edged up to 1,325.79pts (+0.1%), and the SEMDEX improved to 2,037.55pts (+0.3%). The ALCAPEX-12’s smaller gain is reflective of the capping on the banks to ~10% of the index. Market turnover at Rs231 stood appreciably higher than last week, while total market PER at 16.7x and Div. Yield at 2.75% were more or less stable. Finance Financial companies made up 40% of trades during the week. Penny-stock SBM – the latest listed company to consider a bond issue – picked up a penny to Rs1.05 (+1.0%) and even peaked as high as Rs1.06 (+1.0%) during the week as foreign divestment stood at Rs7M this week while MCB registered net investment to the tune of Rs12M. MCB also closed in positive territory at Rs205.25 (+0.7%) having traded at VWAP Rs204.59 during the week. Other highly traded financial stocks include CIM at a flat Rs7.98 and MEI which jumped by Rs3 to ATH Rs100 (+3.1%). Moving on thin trades were BBCL to Rs6.10 (+1.3%), and Leasing company, FINC to Rs18.70 (+1.1%) while insurer, MUA finished unmoved at its Ex-Div. Ref. Price of Rs120. Travel & Leisure Hotel companies experienced mixed fortunes. NMHL lost another 25cts to Rs82.25 seemingly in anticipation of a lower PAT, while LUX and SUN surged to 4Wk-High Rs37.75 (+3.4%) and 2Wk-High Rs36.50 (+4.1%) respectively. MK soared to 2Yr-High Rs15.50 (+13.6%) intra-trade Friday then eased off to Rs15 (+10%) by market close. MK’s swift rally suggests the rumour mill is back at work and fuelling speculative trades. Multi-Sector Conglomerates | Holdings Multi-Sector Holdings were highly active especially on the back of a cross of 3.5M UTIN shares at 2Yr-High Rs11 (+10%) on Tuesday. UTIN – in which TERRA announced to would acquire a 24% stake – thereafter edged down to Rs10.50 (+5.0%) by week’s end. Appreciably traded IBL pursued its steady ascent into unchartered territory to a new Record High Rs101 (+1.0%) while ROGE slipped by 1% to Rs197. Ex-Div. CIEL which will soon be amalgamated with DRIL inched up to Rs3.90 (+0.3%); and DRIL surged to Rs5.44 (+5.0%) on thin trades. Sugar conglomerates closed in positive territory with the noteworthy exception of ALTEO which declined to Rs36.60 (-1.1%). MEDL improved to Rs66 (+0.4%) on appreciable exchanges, OMNI experienced a typical low-vol. gain to Rs86.50 (+0.6%), and Ex-Div. TERRA improved to Rs39.60 (+1.0%).

Consumer Staples | Discretionary Among consumer companies, VEM at a flat Rs150 was the most traded company, while VTAL rocketed by the max. allowed to 20% – ie a Rs9 gain – to 11Mth-High Rs54 on a min. trade of 100 shares having declared a Rs3 div. last week. Having sky-rocketed by 114% in a mere 7 consecutively traded sessions, CMPL at Rs30 has not traded since. Textile company CTL, experienced a 1Wk-reversal to Rs25.10 (+1.2%); on the other hand, Defensive consumer picks, MOR and PBL retreated to Rs185 (-2.6%) and Rs28 (-3.4%) respectively, while INNO resumed its ascent to Rs51.50 (+1.0%). The widest moves were noted on ENLC to Rs21.20 (-4.9%), CSE to Rs155 (-6.6%) and LMLC to 4Mth-High Rs170 (+6.3%). Materials | Industrial | Healthcare Appreciably traded UBP held steady at Rs93 while GAMMA which will soon list its Lotto business on the SEM, was mostly traded at Rs34.91 (+1.2%) and finished at a lower Rs34.60 (+0.3%). Fertilizer company MCFI picked up 50cts to Rs24 while sister concern, BYCH gave up 20cts to Rs10.30. Freeport operator, MFRE gave up recent gains to Rs6.70 (-4.3%) while MASC recouped another 12cts to Rs1.68 following last week’s cross of 13M shares at Rs1.30 (-16.7%). Property With the exception of a highly effervescent BLFE, property stocks closed in negative territory. BLFE whose amalgamation with IOREC was approved earlier this week, surged to Rs8.96 (+5.4%) ie a mere 4cts shy of its record high. ROCK lost $0.05 to $1.30, ENLL fell to Rs50, and MERIT whose Ellipsis projects appears to be either progressing at a snail’s pace or at a stand-still corrected sharply to its lowest price since listing: Rs7 (-5.4%). MERIT’s FY13 revenue {Ended Jun-13} at Rs384M stood 52% below forecasts in its Listing Particulars {dated Nov 28th 2012}. A topline of just Rs59M in Q1-FY14 strongly suggests abhorrently-overvalued MERIT is unlikely to come close its Rs1.2bnFY14 forecast! Investment Holdings Post-split ENL(P) and PAD, becoming increasingly liquid, closed respectively Ex-Div at Rs28 (+1.2%) and at a flat Rs80. Soon to be wound-up and UFL which continues to trade at a substantial discount to the market value of its underlying holdings (FIDES and BLFE), surged to Rs8.90 (+8.5%), and FIDES followed suit to Rs98.25 (+5.4%). MDIT improved to Rs5.90 (+0.7%) while POLI slid to Rs7 (-1.4%) and NITL was driven down by profit taking to Rs40 (-2.2%).

3

News Snippets

Market/Company Announcements

Dividend Declarations

COMPANY

CIMMO ▲VITAL ▲MIL ▬PCCL ▼MCOS ▼SBM ▲


Int 2

3.00 2.00 50% 27-Nov-13 12-Dec-13 30-Dec-13

0.02 0.00 N/A 15-Nov-13

The European Commission fined five banks €1.7 billion ($2.3 billion) in total for participating in cartels to fix the Euribor and theYen LIBOR. It is the latest transgression by bankers to rig interest-rate benchmarks. Deutsche Bank took part in both cartels andwas given a €725m penalty, as did Royal Bank of Scotland, which was fined €391m. Société Générale will pay €446m forparticipating in the Euribor cartel; JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup received lesser fines. Barclays and UBS were implicated but notfined because they told authorities about the practice. Otherwise the commission would have hit UBS with a €2.5 billion penaltyand Barclays with a €690m one.

30.00

Freq. p.a.

Fin 130.00 0% 27-Nov-13 12-Dec-13 30-Dec-13


Dividend Key Dates Properties

BlueLife Ltd (BLFE)At its special shareholder meeting held on Dec 4th 2013, its shareholders approved BLFE’s amalgamation with IOREC on Dec 31st2013. Shareholders of IOREC will receive 1,777 BLFE shares for every 10,000 existing IOREC shares. Post merger, BLFE willtransition over from the SEM’s DEM to the Official List

Ciel Investment Ltd (CIEL)As part of its share buy-back, CIEL purchased no shares during the month of Nov-13, which brings the number of shares CIEL maybuy back unchanged at 44.2M, and places the total number of shares bought back till date at 6.1M.

Gamma Civic Ltd (GAMMA)As part of its share buy-back, GAMMA purchased no shares during the month of Nov-13, which brings the number of sharesGAMMA may buy back unchanged at 6.7M, and leaves the total number of shares bought back till date at zero.

Rockcastle Global Real Estate Co Ltd (ROCK)ROCK closed its latest share placement, with 80.3M new ROCK shares at $1.30 through the Mauritian register and 9.7M new ROCKshares at ZAR 13.40 through its South African register. The new shares will become tradable on Dec 11th in both Mauritius andSouth Africa.

Bayport Management Limited (BML) The SEM’s LEC approved the listing of 7.7M new BML shares on the SEM via a pre-emptive offer and placement.

BML entered into an agreement with JSE-listed Transaction Capital Limited (TCL) to acquire Bayport Financial Services South Africa(BFS) for ZAR 1.6bn + notional interest at 10.8% until the acquisition is complete. BML will acquire 100% stake in BFS as well asZenthyme Investments Proprietary Ltd (ZIPL). BML had also agreed to a new subscription with Takwa Holdco Ltd, Kinnevik NewVentures AB, Groundsel Investments Ltd and Mr. Grant Kurland who will invest $100M, $5.3M, $27M, and $5M respectively. Theinvestment proceeds will be utilised to fund the acquisition of BFS and ZIPL and any balance will be paid using BML’s existing cashresources. Subject to shareholder approval, BML will issue the approved new shares to the subscribers.

17.00 15.76 8% 25-Nov-13 10-Dec-13 24-Dec-13 Fin 1

0.60 0.75 -20% 29-Nov-13 16-Dec-13 31-Jan-14 Fin 1Fin

Type

2

ChangeCurrent Previous Div/Div Declaration Ex-Div. Pay Date

0.60 0.75 -20% 29-Nov-13 16-Dec-13 31-Jan-14 Fin 1

4

Weekly Official List Movements

SEMDEXMCB ASBM HBBCL SCIMFINCMEIMUASWAN

NMHL RSUN RLUX RMKASL

ALTEO* ATERRA BOMNI HIBL AROGE RHML

INNOPBL BMORGOLICMPL

VEMMSMENLC

MCFIUBPGAMMAPIM

ENLL AMERITCAUDROCKSAREFUTDL

MDITNITLPOLIPADBMHLDALE


06-Dec-13ROE

0.1

Con.

Sta

ples

Con.

Dis

c.

86.00

▬

80.00

82.50

1.35

3.1

Trav

el &

Lei

sure

▬

▲ 6.10

235.00

115.00

▬1.30

150.00

51.25

30.00

29.00

7.0051.00

1.147.00

▲▲

10.0%33.0%

1.14

—

2,051

—

▼

34.50

50.00

0.0

82.50

36.50

150.00

93.0034.60

—

36.65

4.0

3.80

N/A33.0%

Mul

ti-se

ctor

Con

g.

High

0.0 1.0

8.8

36.45

Investment Outlook

Official Mkt

204.50

Inve

stm

ent H

oldi

ng

▲

1.30

06-Dec-2013

Week Ended

7.08

0.4

▬3.80 —

5.8640.85

▼

▼

4.01.14

▲▼

2.6 33.1%

▲

▬

6.3

107.50

69.50

235.00

1.9

Fina

ncia

lM

ater

ials

Prop

erty

68.25

185.75

▲

30.00

37.75

▼

10.0%

39.20

▲▬

24.002.0

14.05

DYChange

▬

▲

▲

3.1

▼

▬

▼

197.00

0.2

—

5.50 5.50 — —

▲

▲

82.25

9.00

▲▬

24.00

—

28.05

39.85

0.03

1.058.95

34.90

23.50

▬

▬ 7.98

▼

—

▲

▲

100.00▼

18.50

0.6

15.00

101.00

340.00

200.00

19.3%

53.00

37.50

10.4%

5.2%22.7%

40.4%

-10.7%

-8.5%

—

1.8

7.00

▼

—

7.10

7.98

6-Dec

205.25 203.75

121.50

47.4%

16.5%0.3

2.6 133.0%

93.00

▬

7.7%

18.8%

6.9%

7.5%

5.90 5.8640.00

0.4

—

70.00

40.90

80.00 80.00235.00

0.42.7

36.1% 933.4

5.71.9

34.5% 5.9094.6%

54.7%

25.9%-45.7%

54.7% 7.15

21.5%-45.7%

20.60 1.54.50

▼

94.6%

29.6%

0.7

0.6

1.3

3.70

9.984.00

21.8

2.9

39.4092.00

15.00

35.3

127.00

2.1

15.202.8 2.5

6.4

19.00

0.6

1.275.00

5.051.63.5

0.5

4.60.3

4.00.0

100.00

—

123.00

39.20

15.4

1.2

45.6%

27.0026.4

62.00

LowVal.VWAP

14.9

YTD1.1

1.3

9.10.86▲

42.622.8%54.0%

17.4%

18.65

21.3%

0.1

2,037.6

3.118.51,704 6.017.6%

29-Nov PBVYoY2.6

31.6

75.00

2.9

2.8

2.0

0.0

19.1

14.2

1.00.71.2

0.5

9.0

4.20.72.029.80

63.16.1

13.1

10.1

4.7

2.5

1.4 15.2

1.530.6

290.00115.00

16.7

140.00

10.10

3.2

0.0

0.8

4.2

—

133.00

—

0.6 2.2

3.82.3

0.72.8

1.14.3

9.3

—

1.0 8.6

—

12.4

15.00

10.0

70.50

10.10.3

1.7

2.9

1.00

—

34.3

0.77.0

25.8—

29.90

1.35

—

29.00

0.0

1.11.20

22.90

7.00

10.6

0.1538.1

4.0

4.2 0.73.2

75.0038.50

51.00

100.00

0.7

87.50

1.1

0.9

8.9—

25.30

12.1%

82.50

—

0.5

43.80

6.003.5

2.5

15.09.5

25.112.6

—62.00

1.6

16.2

0.3

0.8

0.4

3.5

3.9

1.3

2.3

—

3.055.8

5.1

0.61.4

37.20

5.00—

0.091.3

— 0.0 —

5.2 5.3

59.0012.8

12.50

26.9

7.00

11.8

27.1%

12.7%

27.10 24.3

34.30

7.00

73.00

40.9

187.00

0.98 —

86.04.40

3.5

2.9

42.60

24.1

23.00

—

0.7

2.5

10.00

31.5%

8.0%

18.6013.9%

29.6

105.00

0.07

3.0

1.5

0.0

0.0322.2

12.4

-4.9%

19.4%-4.4%

26.6

179.00

130.00

212.005.0

6.6

-40.0%

185.00

4.9%

75.9%

101.00

32.2% 35.2%150.0%

37.7088.50

36.6%0.0

34.9%

▼▼

N/A32.0%

-36.4%

4.6%

▼

▬

51.50

▬

7.40

—

1.81.5

185.00

—0.2

69.4%

3.9

22.9%

190.00

107.50

-14.3%

1.3% 1.3%

113.3%-25.0%

0.1

21.20

15.5%

150.00

20.8%

106.2%

-11.7%

-4.4%

197.00

8.10

39.6086.50

48.5%

36.60 36.75

22.20

86.25

35.05

93.00 5.4%

8.10

50.75

22.30

199.00100.75

0.5

115.00

3.1%

115.00

18.8%

-7.4%

7.1

2.6

51.00

0.03

13.65

107.50

28.00

36.50

31.3%

10.9205.002,031.9

28.6%

51.50

290.00

1.05

100.00

8.655.90 2146.10

100.004.1%

7.98

14.1

18.70

-14.4%-23.5%

1.6%

1.04

82.75

97.00

3.30.5

-9.1%

82.50 50.0%

120.00

41.80

290.00 290.00

20.4

-11.6%

33.0%18.2%

39.3 1.443.1

52-Wk

24.1%173.0

1.05 3.81.6160.00

7.9

1.4

As atPER

37.00

120.001.7

56.9%6.02

4.20.4

5

Weekly DEM Movements

DEMEXANGLO

CHSL SHTLSMOLISCT HTPL

CIELMEDLEUDCUTIN

PHINVITALQBLCSE AUNSE RSODIALFLLMLCMILMCOSSAIL

CTLABCACCMSILRHTUBS

BYCHCHEMGAZPCCL

FORTMFRE

ASCEBLFECIMOCOVI

BTEL

MASC

DRILENL(P)ENITFIDESUFLALMABRILMSH


0.7

0.9

0.6

0.50.5

0.6

0.02.3

1.6

▬

——

▬

165.33

3.90

167.13

▬

—

29.25

650.00

0.0

42.00

06-Dec-2013

M-s

ec. H

ldg.

Fin.

▬

VWAP

10.50

42.00

Val.

21.75

58.3

▬

21.85

14.0011.00

54.007.96

6.58 6.58

▲▬

▲

▲

▲

0.1

—

DEM

▬

121.00

Cons

umer

Sta

ples

▲

-75.4%21.80

6.84

Investment Outlook

▬

66.00

Trav

el &

Lei

sure 29.25

650.00 —

▬ 27.00

6-Dec 29-Nov

121.00

▲ 14.00

—27.006.3%

65.7514.00

6.84

7.96

121.00-10.0%

6.84

0.3

5.3

29.25

3.89

Week Ended

-78.7%

923.00

—

24.80-10.4%

— —

—

160.00

10.40 -26.4%

0.1

—

0.1

—

—

0.0

—

22.3%

20.8%23.7%

20.4%

—

0.16

1.3

21.2%33.0512.2%

32.0032.00

40.00

923.0057.50

52.0052.00

57.50

167.00 0.0

24.8525.10

9.8%

15.4%

0.033.0542.1%

▬▬

155.00▬▼

40.00

▬

▬

1.6%

—

-10%

25.1%9.8%

163.00

64.00

—

—

11.6%

0.2

—

0.0%

52.50

170.00

—

10.6%

163.00

—

1,320

▬ —

33.05

170.00 —

▬

22.00

▬

—

166.00

135.00

128.25

—

——

▬

▼

▬

▲

0.160.16▼

170.00

▲

35.00▲

489.00

1,4508.96 8.50

6.70

9.10489.00

9.90

▬23.0%

0.0%

Con.

Dis

cret

iona

ry

▼

128.25

Mat

eria

ls

6.84—

52.50

0.1

7.00

—

21.3%

7.3%

39.60

135.00

34.80

9.10

1.56

▬ —

▼

—

34.8044.9%

▬

10.50

-2.5%

11.7%

489.00

0.0-10.9%22.00

10.30

▲

170.00

8.28 1.7 79.5% 79.5%

46.05

5.24

Ind.

Com

.

90.0093.25

55.7%

1.0

50.50

5.65

2.05

170.007.00

0.0%

98.25

1,410 0.0

Prop

erty 8.80 1.8 16.4%

▲

▬

11.6%

64.00

0.528.00

34.9%27.65

2,940

64.00

7.8%6.7%

1,410

▬

▲▲

45.25 46.002.0

5.18

32.3%

101.00

2,130

▲ 8.90

1.68

33.7

0.1

43.7

5.5

46.6%

2,830

1.2

2,700

8.20

3.6

▲

▬ -6.8%0.1

▲

▬

Hlth

1.1

1.5—

2,130

4.85

18.00

2,4500.4

58.8

89.00 2920.8

-10.6% 9.40166.00

124.00

3.95

5.1%

1.2

0.9

——11.8

1.6

0.2

14.8

4.4

1.6

—13.218.20

1,170

24.900.8

98.50 2.99.5

5.6

0.0

15.2

—

54.7

—

40.001.1

0.9

0.9

-7.0%

0.12

7.10155.00

3.513.7%

10.00

0.0

40.5%39.5%

——42.5%

45.00-10.6%

10.90

59.00

0.1 6.90

66.00

23.5%

1.9%

38.8

3.89

57.6%

0.0 4.3%

——

7.20

54.00 3.73.8115.00 23.0

0.8

0.84.9

77

0.6

8.070.50

1.5

—2.2

17.05.6

118.1

0.62.65

—

42.5%

3.4%16.4%40.0%

11.50

3.0

0.6

11.9570.00

19.00

4.7144.81

18.44.8

27.2%

15.3%13.8%

28.6%

Change

6.3%

167.13650.00

7.00-6.0%

27.2%

8.3%

28.5029.30

YTD

-1.1%

YoY

28.6%0.7

21.32.7

6.40

0.0

Low13.3%

9.6

16.10

0.8

—

2.40.0 —0.7

2.2

PBVPER ROE06-Dec-13

4.80

DY

1.8—

—

0.034.1

18.50

10.2

As at52-Wk

6.51.0

4.14.4

52.36.7

42.00

4.7

32.3

—11.7%

33.0019.60

21.6%

18.6%

23.25.2

—

20.10

—

128.00

0.0

0.60.0

8.80-26.5%

8.0%24.70 19.20

8.00.8

44.9%

2.214.3

1.4

13.7%

0.7

45.0057.50

0.3

925.00186.00

40.00

1.3

1.8

35.30

140.00

15.427.60

4.0163.00

0.7

1.4

1.5

6.0

42.00

6.510.8780.00

-2.6%

77.6%

1.2101.00101.00 13.6%

2,70010.1%

3.6-23.6%

-6.8%Inve

stm

ent H

oldi

ng

-23.6%

1.5

—

14.2

5.90

5.2

15.0

—

1.4

4.9

4.2

10.6%19.7%

14.1

7.427.20

0.5

1.3

52.50

49.2035.1%

-2.5%

0.5

15.6

25.1%

123.00

14.50

5.3

13.8

4.5

—

143.002.5

0.0

1.2

38.6

0.9

7.002.3

—

12.1

2.5

1.3

1.1

0.80.0

46.2

2.6

27.4

438.00 0.519.6

3.6

0.6

0.3

3.8

3.1

9.5

13.3

9.3

0.6

—

0.7

29.0

23.10

143.00

16.2

25.7%

High

52.00

14.70

0.75

22.3% 139.00

46.1%

19.7%

30.0%

45.0060.00

32.00

25.60

20.8%

3.2

1.41.1

1.91.25

4.6

34.10

2,130

106.0043.1

39.4

0.0

0.1

— 0.0

▬

1.65

49.6

8.90

5.4428.15

93.25 2.03.3

38.2% 3.95

101.00

—2,130

13.3 0.7 1.9 14.2

6.4

2.5

—

1.3

0.6

25.7

43.80

3.2

N/A 9.00 6.15

6

Official List Results for Quarter ended Sep 30th 2013

Result commentsMCBSBMBBCLFINCMEIMUASWAN

SUNLUXMKASL

ALTEOTERRAOMNIIBLROGEHML

INNOPBLMORGOLICMPL

VEMMSMENLC

MCFIUBPGAMMPIM

ENLLMERITCAUDROCKSAREFUTDL

MDITNITLPOLIPADBMHLDALE


Con.

Dis

c.M

ater

ials

Prop

erty

Inve

stm

ent H

oldi

ngFi

nanc

ial

06-Dec-2013

2.56

▲ 0.20

↑ Eng & Comm segment insufficient to offset ↓ in services. Also ↑ finance costs offset turnaround at associates.

▬ 0.06

▼

Adj. EPS*Qtr Ended

Sep-13 Sep-12

▲ 5.40

1.98 0.50

Con.

Sta

ples

Trav

el &

Lei

sure

Mul

ti-se

ctor

Con

g.

-341

Investment Outlook

2.83▲ 6.48

3.65

0.07

▼ 6.08

▲

▲

▬ — -0.10

2.20 2.51300

▼

▲4.00 1.86

▲ 0.06

Seemingly improved results from sales of its products in South Africa.

Heightened competition among supermarkets → 4% fall in turnover; but CMPL managed to lower costs by 5%.

0.45

-1.42

PBT up 10% on the back of ↑ margins fr 0.9% to 1.2% in spite of a 5% drop in turnover. PAT ↓ stemmed fr ↑ taxes.

0.59▼0.00

-0.75 -0.17

-0.19

▼ 1.63

-0.20

-23.0 Edible oil sales rev. ↓ 11% coupled with increased cost of raw mats → further decline in op. marg fr 5.8% to 3.6%.

-53.4 Op. profits halved following a substantial drop in profitbaility of Aviation, Marine and Retail segments.

1.15▲▼

-43.1 A fall in it both property rentals and security income trickled down to PAT.

0.84 0.41-6.1 Rev.↑, but op. margins shrank due to ↑ cost of feed & ↓ Moz. poultry prod. while facility is being upgraded.

105 Domestic op. margins improved from 6% to 7% thereby offseting the poorer perf. of its regional operations.

▼ -533

-0.00

3.50

-21.8

A deterioration within its industrial and automotive segments resulted in operating losses.-0.06

1.08

▲ 0.68 0.17▼

0.03

4.78▲ 0.03 0.03▲ 0.01 0.01

ALTEO's bottomline boosted by a 70% surge in refinery profits & substantially reduced property losses.

-20.0 QoQ bottomline line fell sharply following a drop in both sugar production & special sugar prices.

▲ 81.9 Decline in proceeds fr sugar offset by gains at assocs; also we couldn't adj. gains OMNI booked wrt ENL(P) bonus.

12.5 Op marg. ↑ to 6.4%. improvements in Seafood, Comm., Logistics & Finance outweighed declines in Eng. & Retail.

31.6 Slight gains in some seg. offset small deficits elsewhere. Key diff. stemmed fr highly reduced losses at VLH.

6.66

Rev & op. marg ↑ both in Mtius & Mdives in EUR and USD terms respectively fr ↑ occ. rate. Reunion fared worse.

296 Improvement in core biz → 5% turnover increased as well as operating margins improvement from 5% to 8.5%.

115

Buoyed by int'l activities: NII ↑ 10%,; NFCI & Other Inc. ↑ >20%. CIR ↓ 47% to 45%; however impairments surged.

0.2 Marginal NII ↑ offset NFCI & Other Inc. ↓; but surge in overseas impairments led to a 7% decrease in PBT.

11.7 Loans & depos grew by a laudable 24%; unfortunately, BBCL remained inefficient: CIR increased fr 94.6% to 95.7%.

610 Leasing biz fared on par with last year. Turnaround at associates (MEDL's profit from land sales) boosted EPS.

▲

-56.3 Fair val. gains on quoted investment in-line with bull market; although dividend income halved.

L to P Op. profits slid in-line with turnover drop. Turnaround at associates (MEDL's profit from land sales) boosted EPS.

313

-93.9

Although turnover fell by 4% @ const. marg, a turnaround at assocs (fr losses to profits) propelled PAT upwards.

-12.4 In-line with industry's contraction, both construction mat rev. & profits ↓ Rs24M. Agri. & retail improved.

▼

▲

29.0 A 23% increase in gross premiums led to a 23% improvement in operating margins.

153 Net premium up by Rs34M & PBT up by Rs70M which is in-line with life surplus appreciation in a bull market.

-8.7 Net premiums earnings fell by 8% QoQ.

-16.0 Mdives perf. on par QoQ. Mtius: Rev.in EUR ↑ 17.5% ifoll. opening of Ambre, but new hotel cost → higher losses.

0.08 0.18▲ 0.62

-0.38

2.25 2.00▲ -2.15 -3.14 ▼

29.35

▲ 0.13 -0.16 ▲

P to L Decrease in fair value of real estate investments (principally in North America).

Substantiantial drop in the fair value of investments, but distributable losses fell.

QoQ% Δ13.0

▲ 36.6-0.90

L to PL to P

▲

▼ -2.64 -2.28

-0.01

1.19

▲ 1.56 1.30

0.18▲ 4.01 0.97

-0.06 -0.07 ▼

▬ 0.01 0.00▲ -0.07 -0.17

0.000.01▼

0.000.02

L to P Fair val. gains on quoted investment in-line with bull market; although dividend income stood lower

8.2

N/A First CY Q3 for SAREF. Income derived from dividends and fair value of real estate investments.

Significant drop in both finance costs and losses on investments.

— MSM has been placed under administration & trading suspended until further notice. No results expected.

Horse betting income similar QoQ @ const marg. Football betting income ↑ Rs12M → Rs8.5M jump in EBITDA.

20.1

Cyclical orders placed earlier resulting in an Rs11M increase in turnover and Rs6.5M in add. operating profits.

64.1 Higher sugar prices key to improved bottomline having sold its commercial properties to ASCE.

N/A No comparaitves provided. With Rev. of Rs59 in Q1-FY14, MERIT missed its IPO valuation targets by lightyears!

55.8 A slight increase in income and marginal reduction in costs resulted in a Rs1M boost to profits.

55.1

0.68 0.852.17

Massive Rs120M plunge in op. profits following the non-disposal of investments.

▲ -0.02 -0.04 ▼ 1.78

0.04

0.14

7

DEM Results for Quarter ended Sep 30th 2013

Result comments

Fin ANGLO

CHSLHTLSMOLISCTTPL

CIELMEDLEUDCUTIN

PHINVITALQBLCSEUNSESODIALFLLMLCMILMCOSSAIL

CTLABCACCMSILRHTUBS

BYCHCHEMGAZPCCL

FORTMFRE

ASCEBLFECIMO

Com

BTEL

Hlt

MASC

DRILENL(P)ENITFIDESUFLALMABRILMSH


Inve

stm

ent H

oldi

ngPr

oper

tyIn

d.M

ater

ials

Con.

Dis

cret

iona

ryCo

nsum

er S

tapl

esM

-sec

. Hld

g.Tr

avel

& L

eisu

re

Surplus in Q3-13 on par with Q3-12; however, taxation charged increased.

▼ -36.3 Rev ↑ 70% foll takeover of Halaveli; but Op losses ↑ 15%, Fin. Costs ↑ 37%, & Losses @ assocs. ↑ 59%.

-120 CHSL's holding company. Please see comment above.

-249 Soft refurbishment led to a partial closure of the Hilton → 11% drop in revenue.

▼ -37.8 A lower QoQ occupancy rate resulted in an Rs8M decline in turnover @ constant costs.

259▲ 0.10 0.03

▼

-0.8

-6.83 -3.11 ▼ -0.27 -0.08

-0.08

-3.10

▲ -1.92 -2.91 34.0 An appreciable improvement in margins helped reduce operating losses by Rs10M.

▲ 0.68 0.22▲ -0.77 -2.28

▼ 0.18 0.20-0.07 -0.09 ▲ 22.2 Topline increased by Rs2M which trickled down to cut losses by Rs2M.

209 PBL's holding company. Please see consult PBL's comments.

66.2 VITAL renewed with operating profits. 5% drop in turnover stems fr elimination of govt. levy on bottled water.

▲ 1.61 1.29▲ 0.92 0.49

24.8 International operations drove revenue growth to 12% QoQ @ constant margins.

87.8 ABC's turnover plunged by 15%, however operatin margins improved from 1.6% to 2.7%.

▼ 30.52 32.83▼ 0.19 0.47▲ 0.37 -0.93 L to P Improved receipts from manufacturing helped SAIL register Rs6M in op. profits following a break-even Q3-12.

-0.02 -310.1 BIODIA which is now a subsidiary recorded accentuated losses given the absence of sales in Q3-CY13.

-32.7

12.01 5.08▲ 0.24 0.00▲ 4.66 4.64

▼ -12.16 -8.14 ▲ 0.14 0.04

-49.4 A Rs46M (-23%) plunge in topline led to operating losses of Rs20M.

250 Improved freeport biz. conditions led to 34% increase in turnover → Rs20M increase in op. profits.

▲ 136 Post merger, new rev. fr Kendra & Helvetia offset Riche Terre ↓ due to renovation + add. Rs10M from Bagatelle.

162,205 First CY Q3 reporting on the SEM. Share of net income from Azuri development amounted to Rs35M.

0.4 Both QoQ rental income and operating profit remained similar.

▼ -0.89 -0.00 -43,530 With an est. equiv. of ~1.5k subs. on its unlimited 2MBps plan, it stands well below figs. in its listing valuation.

-0.3 Marginal topline growth @ constant margins outweight by increased finance charges.

1.58 1.18▼ 0.06 0.37▲ 34.2 Related to CIEL, CTL and ALTEO.

▼ 0.02 0.02

39.33 3.83▲ 32.04 3.03

-0.70 -0.21 ▼ -1.63 12.87

0.01 0.61

-83.8 Related to ENLL, ENIT, ENLC, ROGE, ASCE and NMHL.

▼ -238 Not comparable QoQ due to consolidation of ROGE's financials. Related to ROGE, ASCE and NMHL.

P to L 57% revenue plunge at FAST coupled with the losses at newly opened Centara hotel in the north east.

▼ -98.9 Related to FIDES and BLFE.

148 Related to MEDL, EUDC and SODIA.



▲ 0.52 0.21▲

▼ 144.88 145.99

Adj. EPS*Qtr Ended QoQ

Sep-13 Sep-12 % Δ

▼

▼ 0.52 0.71▼ 1.80 2.78

▲ 0.11 0.10

▲

▼▲ 0.22 -0.02

▼ -0.08

▼

14.69▲ -1.82

0.62 0.92

21.89

▲ 6.61 6.001.37 1.88

▼ 2.73 7.08

10.2 Measures aimed at reducing costs were effective in boosting margins and thus PAT.

-27.3 Turnover surged 34% but op. profits stood the same. Higher taxes lowered attributable earnings.

L to P Op. profits plunged 38%; however, absence of losses on fin. assets turned the bottomline around.

-32.5 Both QoQ turnover and operating profits remained similar; however other income dropped substantially.

-61.4 Heightened sales → topline ↑ 22%; but soaring cost of wheat → op. margin plunge from 6.5% to <2%.

-7.0 PBT fell on the back of tighter margins (down fr 15% to 12%); however reduced QoQ tax charge → similar PAT.

-59.8 Both QoQ turnover & op. profits were similar, but fin. costs experienced a 2-fold increase.

12.8 BYCH's QoQ topline dropped by 10%, but managed to improve op. margins from 2% to 3%.

-26.8 Poor biz. environment blamed for CHEM's 11% revenue drop & narrower op. margin (down to 4.5% from 6.7%).

-35.3 Lower sales resulted in a 22% fall in turnover and squeezed margins from 25% to 20%.

L to P Steep plunge in re-current earnings from a break-even qtr to losses of Rs29M offset by Rs135M from land sales.

-10.1 Higher inv. & tourism derived profits offset declines in distillery & commerce; but property rentals fell by Rs2M.

Higher occupancy drove rev. up 11.5% coupled with cost containement → op. margin increase fr 11% to 16%.

06-Dec-2013

Increased cost of raw mats. cited as reason op. margins shrank from 6% to 5% @ constant revenue.

▼ 0.81 1.20

-82.0 Op. profits remained on par QoQ; however higher interest charges affected attributable earnings.0.03 0.16

34.1 Investment disposals coupled with with reduced losses at associates.

49.0 Higher sugar price & improved agri. biz. boosted topline by 18% and led to improved op. margins (36% to 39%).

5.4

Investment Outlook

▲ -0.07 -0.11

QoQ losses stood higher; but a tax credit as opposed to a tax charge in Q3-13 lowered QoQ LPS.

-0.06

-4.22

-1.93

▲ 0.80 -0.05

8

SEM Debt Securities

MCB Repo+1.35%LUX 9% ConvertibleUBP Repo+1.2%UTIN Repo+3%OMNI 7.15% [Rs k]OMNI 5.7% [Rs k]

Fixed Income Instruments

Moody's Credit Rating: Baa1

Overnight [% p.a.]1 Week [% p.a.]1 Month [% p.a.]3 Months [% p.a.]* Assumes conversion into equity in Dec-14; and factors for conversion discount and dilution


6-Dec

7.5%

4.9%

7.5%

6-Dec

3.7%

YTM @ FV YTM

4.2%

Investment Outlook

5.7%

▼ 5.3%

YTM Week Ended

6.3%

15.7% 3.6% 10.97 10.00 12.18

154

103.85

AXYS Fair Valuation

99.85

Week Ended

▼

▲

100.004.9%

109.5%

102.71

1 WeekPLIBOR

▲ 1,017 1,000

6-Dec

1,102

@ Par

7.2%

5.4%

106.17

5.3%

▲ 15.8%

5.6% 4.5%

21.4%4.190.00% 112

7439.0%▬ 3.99

▲ 3.70 1.93%3.183.63

100.00

Change

▼

4.3%

6.0%29-Nov

Settlement Price

1,030

06-Dec-2013

Debentures

▬

106.14

@ Par

162

5.7%

2.7%

YTD

71.3%

0.00%

1,131@ Par6-Dec

3.994.19

104.91

YTD in bps29-Nov-2013-2.52%

1,050

1,1361,000

6-Dec-20133.10

5.9%▼ 5.6% 101.54 100.00 105.28 105.14

12.7710.7%

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

INte

rest

Rat

e [%

]

PLIBOR 1-Day PLIBOR 3-Mth Tbill 91-Day

3.9

4.4

2

4

6

8

10

0 5 10 15

Sove

reig

n Yi

elds

[%

]

Instrument Maturity [Yrs]

Poly. (Current)

Poly. (Previous)

Current

Prev. Yr

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

-100

0

100

200

300

Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13

LUX CB YTM

premium

over Risk Free [bps] YT

M p

rem

ium

ove

r Ris

k Fr

ee [

bps]

MCB Repo+1.35% UBP Repo+1.2%UTIN Repo+3% LUX 9% CB*

9

Forex Rates

L HUSD / MUREUR / MURGBP / MURZAR / MURAUD / MUR

Domestic FX Market Watch


▲

19.8

▼

Periods

The Bank of Mauritius intervened dailyon the domestic foreign exchangemarket during the week ended Dec 6th2013 purchasing $3M at VWAP Rs30.29and €4.4M at VWAP Rs41.16.

1,096.0 30.06 431.7 40.16

Qty [M] Price [Rs] Qty [M] Price [Rs]

Currencies

219.5

-15.3%

▼

▼

31.83

0.23% 2.2%

06-Dec-2013

40.36

40.49

-19.1% -17.6%

31.7

Dec -2013Q3-2013H1-2013201220112010

41.16 4.4 30.29 3.0 6.8 30.76 62.8 40.54

161.5 30.68 215.7 395.2 310.0 28.56

40.48

29.97

-0.39% -13.8%

2.8%50.03 50.21

EUR

YTD 52 Wks

41.81

3.00 3.07 -2.28%

USD

97.3 39.02

▼

— 52Wk

27.97 28.08

Investment Outlook

30.75 30.80 -0.16% -1.0% -1.9%41.91

-0.36% -0.3% -0.7%

Week Ended Change6-Dec 29-Nov 1 Wk

85

90

95

100

105

Inde

x =

100

on

30-

Jun-

2010

USD EUR GBP

38

39

40

41

42

43

30.50

30.75

31.00

31.25

31.50

31.75

MU

R per EUR M

UR

per U

SD

BoM Interventions USD EUR ECB derived EUR

ORR Start

10

SEM Listed Fund Net Asset Values

Africa Sustainability Fund (ASF)

CIEL Investment Ltd (CIEL)

Evisa Investments Ltd (EIL)

Fidelis Opportunity Fund PCC - Focus Cell 2 (FOF)

Global Diversified Fund PCC - Cell No. 1 (GDF)

IPRO Growth Fund Ltd (IGF)

JPT Capital Agrifund (JCA)

Mauritius Development Investment Trust Co Ltd (MDIT)

National Investment Trust Ltd (NIT)

Novare Africa Fund PCC (NAF)

NinetyEast Timaeus Capital Fund PCC - Cell A (NTCF)

P.O.L.I.C.Y. Ltd (POLI)

RSJ Prop, PCC

Theseus Property Fund Ltd (TPFL)

Triangle Real Estate India Fund LLC (TREIF)

AfrAsia Capital Management Ltd (ACML)

– ACM India Focus Fund (AIFF)

– ACM Aussie Ltd (AAL)

– ACM European Ltd (AEL)

Global Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (GIOF)

– Kotak Indian Growth Fund (Class A)

– Kotak Indian Mid-Cap Fund (Class C)

– Kotak Liquid Fund (Class I)

Imara

– Imara African Opportunities Fund Ltd

– Imara Global Fund Ltd

Lancelot Global PCC

– Commodities Partners International (CPIL)*

Kotak Investment Opportunities Fund Ltd (KIOFL) Class D Shares

– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 1)

– Kotak Indian Infrastructure & Realty Fund (Series 2)

*NAV provided every Friday. AXYS uses the NAV value closest to month's end

Select Abbreviations

Disclaimer


-12.7%

2.82$

2.39 11.7%

1.1%

18.4%

6.9%

-10.6%

▲

2.1%

Rs

0.9%

4.38

▲4.74

$

5.4%

2.56

▼$

Official Market

-2.2%

$ 16.46

0.08

3.7%

$

Rs

106.98

Rs

3.16

2.95

0.75▼

$

1.33

-4.1%

€

2.8%25.04

▼

340

0.0%

421

0.71

70.50

▲

▼

-12.7%

$▲ 14.9%

2.64

-17.2%

$

$

217

-3.5%

12.1%

17.8617.06

375

22.7%

271

0.73

▲

▲▲

10.84

898

$ (AUD)

4.37

Rs

0.3%

▲ 5.47

63.98

1.00

£ 9,034 9,071 9,108

-3.2%

1.91 4.1%▲0.58

€

£ 1,599

▼

▲

104

▲▲

▲

▲▲ 26.84

16.8%

-3.7%

4.22

$

0.08

5.06

8.62

0.9%

110

72.15

1.00

106.61

5.52

67.9670.06

0.08

896

0.0%

19.1%

-17.5%

13.1%

85.6%

▲

▬

$

1.00

244

4.7%

10.6%

-0.2%

10.84

1.26

3.2%

0.65$

1.30

$ 10.9%

13.6%

0.0%

895

2.0%

27.21

101

0.4%

1.82

8.4%

3.6%

8.0%

10.84

£

27.79

$ 0.76

979 1,029952 5.1%

1,503

4.7%

-15.3%

0.0%

25.74

1.99

Change

Rs

1,517

9.04

12.2%

Sep-138.2%

4.80

9.7%

24.06

4.9%

Month EndedOct-13

▲

MtoMAug-13 YTD▲


AXYS Stockbroking Ltd has issued this document without consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any individualrecipient. AXYS Stockbroking Ltd will not be under any liability for loss or damage of any kind whatsoever arising in connection with the contents of thisdocument. This document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment.This document has been based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable but which have not been independently verified. AXYSStockbroking Ltd makes no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. AXYSStockbroking Ltd is a member of the Stock Exchange of Mauritius and is licensed by the Financial Services Commission.

-2.6%

▲▲

74.49

Rs

Sectors:FIN = Financial; TL = Travel & Leisure; MSCH = Multi-Sector Conglomerates & Holdings; CONS = Consumer Staples; COND = Consumer Discretionary; MAT = Materials; IND =Industrials; HLTH = Health; COMM = Communications; PROP = Property; INVH = Investment Holdings; UT = Utilities; GOV = Public Sector; OTH =Other.

11

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Investment Outlook - axys-group. · PDF fileInvestment Outlook . 06-Dec-2013 . ... to the market value of its underlying holdings ... Barclays and UBS were implicated but not