Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
INVEST MONGOLIA September 3, 2012 Frontier 6th Annual Conference
Norihiko Kato Acting CEO, Khan Bank
Banking Industry in Mongolia
Mongolia Macroeconomic Overview Overview GDP per capita (U$)
Robust GDP growth (U$ in trillion) GDP composition by sector
Since 2010, Mongolia has made strong economic recovery.
Real GDP grew by 17.5% in 2011, making Mongolia one of the fastest growing countries .
Growth rates were 42.5% in wholesale and retail, 16% in manufacturing, 14% in construction, and 8.7% in mining and quarrying
In the Banking system, loans grew by 72% and deposits grew by 46% in 2011.
2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.5 3.7 4.4
5.1 5.6 6.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
E
2013
E
2014
E
2015
E
2016
E
US$
1.491 1.980 1.600
2.300 3.288
4.321 5.226
6.156 6.516
7.684
0.0001.0002.0003.0004.0005.0006.0007.0008.0009.000
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
E
2013
E
2014
E
2015
E
2016
E
20.2%
13.0%
9.7% 7.2% 7.1%
6.6%
3.5%
32.8%
Mining & quarrying
Agriculture
Wholesale and retail trade
Transportation andstorageManufacturing
Real estate
Government
Others
Mongolia Macroeconomic Overview
Export destination
Trade Balance
Export composition
Foreign Direct Investment (in U$m)
1889 2534
1885 2908
4780
2262 2117 3244
2137
3200
6526
3313
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2Q
Export Import Trade Balance
81%
8%
6% 5%
Mineral products
Textiles
Precious metal & jewlery
Others86%
5%
3% 2% 4%
China
Canada
Russia
UK
Others
185 191 360 839
570
1630
3808
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mongolia Macroeconomic Overview
Inflation
Budget Balance Foreign reserves
MNT rate against USD
1880 2156 1992
3122
4400
1747
2462 2321 3080
4792
-1000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Revenue Expenditure Balance
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
2008
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
2009
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
2010
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
2011
Jan
Mar Jun
Sep
Dec
2012
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Ju
n
975
637
1122 1155
2457
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Core Inflation National CPI
Banking Sector Development
Total Asset Market Share (2012 2Q) Total Loan Market Share (2012 2Q)
Khan Bank 23%
Golomt 22%
TDB 23%
XacBank 9%
Savings 8%
Others 15%
Khan Bank 25%
Golomt 23%
TDB 23%
XacBank 10%
Savings 8%
Others 11%
14 commercial banks, 195 small NBFIs,162 savings & credit cooperatives, and 17 insurance companies.
The largest three banks (Khan, TDB, & Golomt) make up the 70% of the total assets and 68% of the total loans in the system.
The largest 5 banks (Top 3, Xac, & Savings) make up the 87% of the total assets and 85% of the total loans in the system.
Banking Sector Development
11%
21%
41%
50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Assets Growth
Banking Sector Asset Banking Sector Loan
25.31%
-6.64%
25.97%
71,16%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Loan /net/ Growth
Banking Sector Deposit Banking sector Equity
-9.57%
-32.35%
66.09%
76.96%
-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%
0
200
400
600
800
2008 2009 2010 2011
Equity Growth
23.33% 24.52%
54.64%
42.18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
2008 2009 2010 2011
Deposit Growth
3.0%
7.1%
17.4%
11.5%
5.8%
4.8%
1.5% 2.8%
8.0%
4.5%
2.3% 2.0%
0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%18%20%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2Q
Banking Sector Gross Loan Banking Sector NPL Banking Sector NPL Ratio Khan Bank NPL Ratio
Banking sector Non-performing Loans (MNT billions)
Banking Sector Development
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
Deposit (MNT in billions)
Loan
(MN
T in
bill
ions
)
Khan
Golomt
TDB
XAC
Savings
Source: TDB & Golomt & Xac & Savings Website, audited report
503 497
92 88 42
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Khan Savings XacBank Golomt TDB
Total Asset Market Share (2012 2Q) Number of Branches (YE2011)
Fee Income (case of KB)
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Transfer Fee Card Service Fee SMS Banking
Banking Sector Development
58,379 51,122
29,914
12,192
Khan TDB Golomt XacBank
37.7%
21.6% 20.5% 19.2% 16.3%
12.4% 11.2% 11.2% 11.1%
Khan Indo China India MY Thai SG HK Korea
3.08% 2.83%
1.89% 1.61%
Khan TDB XacBank Golomt
Consistent Profitability (Khan bank) Superior Profitability (TOP 4) (in MNT billion)
One of the Highest ROE in the Region Strong ROA
45.9%
31.2%
12.0%
29.6%
39.3%
4.0% 2.8% 1.5% 2.3% 3.1%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
ROAE ROAA
Banking Sector Development
11.4% 12.4%
19.3% 16.6%
15.4%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
98%
84%
68% 59%
76%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
20.8%
15.4% 13.3% 12.6%
XacBank Khan Golomt TDB
116%
62.4% 74% 68.1%
XacBank TDB Khan Golomt
CAR-Khan Bank
Source: TDB & Golomt & XacBank Website, audited report
Adequately Capitalized – CAR Khan Bank Loan Deposit Ratio – Khan Bank
CAR of TOP 4 banks (YE 2011) Loan Deposit Ratio of TOP 4 banks (YE2011)
Banking Sector Development
72%
26.8% 22.5% 16.5% 15.2% 14.4% 13.5% 13.1% 13.0%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100% 46,0%
25.2%
14.5% 14.3% 11.3% 11.0% 9.0% 7.2% 6.0%
0%5%
10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%
Source: Bank of Mongolia, Deutsche bank
2011 Regional Loan Growth
Capacity for Further Growth (Banking system) (in billion MNT)
Total Banking Sector Loan to GDP
2011 Regional Deposit Growth
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Banking sector assets Banking sector loans /net/
Loan to GDP ratio
79%
105%
84%
66%
79%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Deposit Loan LDR
Challenges the Banking Sector is facing
- Immediate: overheated economy(?) impact of global economic turbulence - Underdeveloped interbank market - Long term funding in MNT - Legal and regulatory framework e.g. movable assets pledge, non-banking finance business financial holding company - Capital needs - Risk management and system investment - Compliance, AML, KYC - Governance and transparency
Mongolia’s banking sector has attractive opportunity
Corporate 23%
SME 27%
Retail 33%
Mortgage 13%
Other 4%
Khan Bank Loan Composition Khan Bank Income Composition
Case of Khan Bank Diversified Business Portfolio
0.44 1.37 2.91 3.85 6.31
19.92
4.9 4.7 8.5 10.3 13.1
14.9
34
53
79 70
88
124
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
FX Income Fees & Other Income Net Interest Income
KHAN BANK-NATIONWIDE NETWORK
8
► 500 Branches in every part of Mongolia of
which 80 are in urban areas and 420 are in rural areas
► Estimated that 80% of all Mongolian
households utilize Khan Bank’s services
► 1.6 million customers all over the country
► 500 Branches in every part of Mongolia of
which 80 are in urban areas and 420 are in rural areas
► Estimated that 80% of all Mongolian
households utilize Khan Bank’s services
► 1.6 million customers all over the country
► 299,000 borrowers of which 82% is retail
consumer borrower.
► 260 ATMs –63% of national market penetration
► 1 million debit card holders
► 299,000 borrowers of which 82% is retail
consumer borrower.
► 260 ATMs –63% of national market penetration
► 1 million debit card holders
Bulgan Branch, Bulgan Aimag Mongolia
Thank you for your attention.