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Inventing The Future: Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners
Jack P. GarrettGarrett Business Technology, LLC
04 Nov 2003
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 2
The Plan …
Look at how and by whom the future is invented
Consider what clues are around us that may foreshadow our possible future – and what we and our partners want to do to shape that future for our customers
The Journaling exercise: The relationship I want to have with my customers and partners in the future
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 3
The Future, Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners
The future rarely arrives unannounced
You, your company, your customers and your partners will both invent the future and be subject to it
We don’t lack input, we lack effective filters and analysis
“Most of us have built up a set of filters to keep us from drowning. We pay attention only to what we think we need to know.” – Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 4
Not “Where Is It Going”, But “Where Do We Want It To Go?”
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 5
Living with the Future or Inventing It
“…Whether 'tis nobler in the mind to suffer The slings and arrows of outrageous fortune, Or to take arms against a sea of troubles.”
Hamlet, William Shakespeare
“Lead, follow, or get out of the way.” Lee Iacocca, Chrysler
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 6
Who Invents the Future?
What drives them?
What are they like?
How do they invent the future?
What can we learn from them – so we can, too?
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 7
Inventors of the Future – the Gold Standard
Pyramid of Khufu 482 feet high, 754 feet at base 2,300,000 limestone blocks 2 ½ tons average, some over 9 tons 20 years to complete
One stone in place, every 4 1/2 minutes, on average, day and night
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 8
Leonardo da Vinci – Nobody Did It Better
Musical instruments, painting, sketching, bridges, fortifications entertainment, sculpture, anatomy, weaponry, mathematics, architecture, hydraulics
Customers: Lorenzo de Medici Ludovico Sforza Cesare Borgia King Francis I of France
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 9
Leonardo da Vinci
“Every day he made models and designs for the removal of mountains with ease and to pierce them to pass from one place to another, and by means of levers, capstans, and screws to raise and draw heavy weights; he devised methods for cleansing ports and to raise water from great depths, schemes which his brain never ceased to evolve. Of such ideas and efforts many designs are scattered about, and I have seen many of them.”
- Lives of Painters, Giorgio Vasari, ca. 1550
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 10
The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be
(http://desip.igc.org/populationmaps.html)(http://desip.igc.org/populationmaps.html)
Thomas Malthus1766-1834
Essay on the Principles of Population
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 11
Not Everyone Succeeds …
Superior Technology
Access to substantial personnel and financial resources
Graduate of a prestigious institution of higher learning
Promoted repeatedly for exceptional performance
Experienced, innovative, adaptable
Competitive Advantages
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 12
Not Everyone Succeeds …
Popular, dashing and successful Offered speaking contract second
only to Mark Twain Ongoing correspondent with
Galaxy Magazine Brought along Mark Kellogg of the
New York Herald – against orders Upcoming Democratic convention
in St. Louis 1876 Democratic candidate:
Samuel J. Tilden (who?)
Why Include Custer?
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 13
Not Everyone Succeeds …
Personal goals obscured larger objective
Lost technological competitive advantage
Poor use of available resources
Underestimated resources available to competition
Competition was also experienced, innovative, adaptable
What Went Wrong (For Him)?
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 14
The Focused Inventor
•Phonograph•Reliable Incandescent Light bulb•Carbon Telephone Transmitter•Motion Picture Camera• … (1093 patents)
http://www.invent-yes.com/Thomas_Edison.htm
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 15
The Focused Inventor
“Hell, there are no rules here — we're trying to accomplish something.”
“Genius is 1% inspiration and 99% perspiration.”
http://www.invent-yes.com/Thomas_Edison.htm
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 16
The Focused Inventor
“In 1868 Edison made his first patented invention, the Electrical Vote Recorder. Congress was apparently not interested in purchasing this as it counted votes too quickly. Edison vowed he would never again invent anything unless there was a "commercial demand" for it.”
“At age 23 Edison made his first sale of an invention, a Universal Stock Ticker, to General Lefferts, the head of the Gold and Stock Telegraph Co. Edison had decided that the invention was worth $5000 but was ready to accept $3000 when Lefferts said, "How would $40,000 strike you?" In later years Edison reported that he had almost fainted, but managed to stammer that the offer seemed fair enough. That money was used to set up Edison's first business.”
http://www.invent-yes.com/Thomas_Edison.htm
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 17
The Best Things May Come in Very Small Packages
One an ex-physicist and the other a former ornithology student
Competition with Linus Pauling – and others
Crucial Rosalind Franklin X-Ray diffraction photograph shown to them by Maurice Wilkins
3-D Molecular models help visualize the structure
“The Double Helix: … a tale of boundless ambition, impatience with authority and disdain, if not contempt, for received opinion”- Robert Wright
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/aso/tryit/dna/
James Watson and Francis Crick – The DNA Double Helix
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 18
Others Who Invented Our Future
Whoever first controlled fire The Sources and Founders of Religions The inventor of Arabic Numerals Christopher Columbus – “Discovery” of the New World Sir Isaac Newton – Laws of Planetary Motion Albert Einstein – Special Theory of Relativity The Manhattan Project – Nuclear Weapons Arthur C. Clarke – Geosychronous communications
satellites Tim Berners-Lee, Robert Cailliau, et. al. - The Internet
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 19
Those Who Did Invent the Future
Intensely aware of competition Funding, sponsorship and other resource issues Not afraid to work hard Built on, and improved, the work of others Had their own view of what they wanted the future to be The results weren’t always what they expected
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 20
The Future, Your Company, Your Customers and Your Partners
Break
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 21
Inventing the Future – Our Turn
What does our future hold and what opportunities are there for us to invent a part of it?
“To create the future, a company must first be capable of imagining it.” – Gary Hamel and C. K. Prahalad, Competing for the Future
“An old Arab proverb says that, ‘he who predicts the future lies even if he tells the truth’” – Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 22
Creating Scenarios
1. Avoid probabilities or “most likely” plots2. Do not assign probabilities to the scenarios3. Avoid slight variations on a theme4. Choose memorable names5. Make the decision makers own the scenarios6. Budget sufficient resources for communicating scenarios7. Communicate effectively and imaginatively8. Have fun
Learning from the Future, Liam Fahey & Robert M. Randall, ed.
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 25
Separating the Wheat From the Chaff
Consider the following items as possibly being significant indicators of the future
Consider what could be done to invent a future with your partners that would best serve your customers
Exercise: Multivote on which will be most important to your company, your customers and your partners – positively or negatively
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 26
Remote Medicine: Telepresence and Robotics
“Telepresence techniques could allow surgeons to conduct robotic surgery from anywhere in the world offering increased accessibility to specialists. Prototypes have been tested that let the surgeons experience all the sensory feedback and motor control that would be felt in person.”
Dutton, G., "Medicine Gets Closer to Virtual Reality." IEEE Software, September 1992, p.108.
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 27
Computing Environment Stability and Customer Satisfaction
“In the final analysis the Nimda computer virus affected some 8.3 million computer networks around the world and according to analysts caused $590 million dollars in damage and clean up costs.”
(www.uksecurityonline.com)
“Hackers contest makes a mess of InternetTuesday, 08 July , 2003, 08:56Washington: A weekend hacker contest resulted in ‘the
messiest day in the whole Internet history,’ disabling hundreds of websites from Brazil to the Netherlands, security experts said.”
(www.sify.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 28
BUSLINK 1GB ( 1024MB ) USB Flash Memory Pen Drive /w Secure Password Protection, Price: $369.00
Information Archival and Changes in Storage Media
“It’s gonna replace CDs soon. Guess I’ll have to buy The White Album again.”
- “K”, played by Tommy Lee Jones, Men in Black
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 29
1804: Punched card: 80 characters 1962: Audio Cassette Tape: 120 minutes 1965: 8-track tape: ~60 minutes 1971: Super 8mm Film: 20 minutes 1976: VHS: 2 hours 1981: 5 ¼” Floppy: 1.2MB 1982: CD: 700 MB 1983: 3 ½” Floppy: 1.44 MB 1994: DVD: 4.7 GB
Information Archival and Changes in Storage Media
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 30
Voting, Voting Machines and Hanging Chad
Bush: 271 Electoral votes (50,456,169 Total)
Gore: 266 Electoral votes (50,996,116 Total)
(www.cnn.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 31
Revenues Generated by Electronic Games And Motion Pictures
2001:
Video games: $9.3B in revenues
Hollywood: $8.1B
(www.internetnews.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 32
Personal Privacy and Freedom of Speech
“USA PATRIOT ActUniting and Strengthening America by Providing
Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act (Oct. 25, 2001)
AN ACTTo deter and punish terrorist acts in the United States and
around the world, to enhance law enforcement investigatory tools, and for other purposes.
…”
(HR 3162)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 33
GPS and RFID: Satellite-Assisted Location
“The ultimate goal is to put a radio tag on virtually every manufactured item …” (“Beyond the Bar Code”, Charlie Schmidt, MIT Technology Review )
“… for it is the number of a man; and his number is Six hundred threescore and six.”
(Revelations 13:18 )
“As of 13 Oct 2003, there were 70,952 active (Geo)caches in 188 countries.”
(www.geocaching.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 34
Keyboards that Fold, Roll Up or Can be Integrated Into Clothing
“Levi's musical jacket is made with the silk organza and is controlled with an all-fabric capacitive keyboard. This keyboard has been mass-produced using ordinary embroidery techniques and conductive thread.”
(computer.howstuffworks.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 35
Identity Theft
“A survey in March and April (2003) of 4,057 randomly selected adults suggests that during that 27.3 million people were victimized during the past five years when someone made unauthorized charges on their credit cards, took money from their bank accounts, or obtained a credit card or official document in their name.
Last year, based on the survey, 9.9 million Americans were victims of identity theft, costing them $5 billion and businesses and financial institutions $48 billion.”
(www.smartpros.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 36
Beyond CRT and LCD: Advances in Holographic, Retinal, 3D displays
“This new stereoscopic display uses a holographic optical element (HOE) … which converges the coherent parallel rays at the center of the human eye and projects the rays directly on the retina.”
(www.siggraph.com, Takahisa Anda, Sanyo)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 37
Wireless Growth
12 October 2003“The top four US carriers had a combined net gain of 2.54
million customers during the second quarter, 40 per cent more than the net gain a year ago, and the strongest quarterly gain in over a year.”
(finance.news.com.au)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 38
Genetically Altered Foods and the Cloning of Animals and Organisms
“Surveys consistently find that 97% of European consumers want clear labeling of all genetically engineered foods and 80% do not want genetically engineered foods at all.”
(www.netlink.de)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 39
Intellectual Property in the Digital Age: Downloading of Music and other Forms of Information
“According to the Recording Industry Association of America and the International Federation of the Phonographic Industry, music thieves pirated more than $4.2 billion last year.”
(more.abcnews.go.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 40
The Prospect of a Globe with Three Economic Powers: Asia, Europe and the US
“Due to its rapid gross domestic product (GDP) growth, China contributed 15.7% of global GDP growth in 2002, just next to the U.S. We expect China will be able to maintain an annual growth rate of 7% over the long term.”
(Peter Chau, www.talvest.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 41
Nanotechnology and Smart Dust
“The FY 2003 President's budget request of about $710 million … for federal investment in nanoscale science, engineering and technology, a 17% increase over FY 2002…”
(www.nano.gov)
“… these "motes" could eventually be the size of a grain of sand, though each would contain sensors, computing circuits, bidirectional wireless communications technology and a power supply. Motes would gather scads of data, run computations and communicate that information using two-way band radio between motes at distances approaching 1,000 feet.”
(www.computerworld.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 42
The US Prison Population
“At the middle of last year, prisons and jails held 1,860,520 adults, according to a Bureau of Justice Statistics report. With an increase of 60,000 prisoners over the previous year, the United States may have matched or even surpassed Russia as the country with the highest rate of incarceration.”
(David Ho, AP, abcnews.go.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 43
Offshoring of Manufacturing and High-technology Jobs
“A CIO at a famous Fortune 100 manufacturer has a recurring nightmare: As he continues to lay off American IT workers and move their jobs offshore to places such as India, never to return, American public opinion suddenly swings violently against globalization. He and his company are demonized, and Americans boycott his company's products....Indeed, by the end of 2004, research company Gartner estimates, one in 10 IT jobs at U.S. IT companies and one in 20 at non-IT companies will move offshore.”
(Christopher Koch, www.cio.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 44
Increasing Functionality of Mobile Phones
“A lot of camera phones will arrive in the coming months, but the XYZ does the best job of integrating this nifty feature without losing sight of its primary phone duties. This model features a spectacular 65,000-color display and includes loads of top-tier specs such as high-speed data surfing via WXY's next-generation 1xRTT networks. The XYZ is also GPS-ready for e911 services, and it supports J2ME, so you can download cool games, applications, and ring tones.”
(Modified from www.cnet.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 45
Balkanization - the Growing Tendency Toward Smaller Nation-States
“USSR: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan
Bosnia: Serbians in Bosnia fought to break away from Bosnia and join Serbian dominated Yugoslavia
Kashmir: Muslims in the state of Jammu and Kashmir are fighting to break away from India
Nigeria: the southeastern part of Nigeria declared themselves to be the independent State of Biafara
Sri Lanka: the Tamil Tigers are fighting to break away from Sri Lanka "Kurdistan": the Kurdish people of Turkey, Iraq and Iran have periodically
fought to create the new State of Kurdistan Iraq: the Shiites Muslims living in the marshes of southeastern Iraq have
fought to break away from the Sunni Muslim dominated government of Saddam Hussein” - (Modified from www.harpercollege.com)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 46
The Possibility of Chemical, Biological or Nuclear Terrorism Across the Globe
“Coalition Provisional Authority Administrator Ambassador Paul Bremer issued a statement of condolence October 13 to the victims of the terrorist car bombing in Baghdad of October 12. According to news reports, at least six bystanders were killed and 32 injured in the explosion.”
(www.usinfo.state.gov)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 47
Imaging: From Film to Silicon
“A day after Kodak cut their dividend from $1.80 to 50 cents to invest in its digital business, the company announced it will stop making and selling slide projectors by June 2004.”
(26 September 2003 Mike Pasini, www.imaging-resource.com”
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 48
China’s Struggles with the Future
“China has scrapped plans to show its first manned space launch live on television. The decision was prompted by official fears of "political risks" if the flight failed. Beijing says the flight will lift off from a remote desert base in the north west some time between Wednesday and Friday.” (14 October 2003 AP, www.ananova.com)
“Beijing has scrapped a regulation of a half century’s standing that designates accommodations for overseas guests …. Not all luxury hotels were designated to host foreign tourists in the past.” (San Francisco Chronicle, 26 October 2003)
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 49
What Do We Think the Future Holds?
Multivote, selecting the items you think will affect your customers and partners most
We’ll score the group’s collective decisions
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 50
Journaling Exercise: The Relationship I Want to Have With Customers and Partners in My Future
Inventing the future could be lonely work, but you will certainly need resources and allies. As you develop your strategy for inventing the future you want, how would you gain the support and active assistance of your company and partners?
How would you share your vision of the future with your customers? How might your customer set be different from those you have currently as a result of that vision?
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 51
The Future, Your Customers and Your Partners
Thank You…
And May Fortune Smile On You!
4 Nov 2003 Garrett Business Technology © 2003 52
Journaling Exercise: The Relationship I Want to Have With Customers and Partners in My Future
Inventing the future could be lonely work, but you will certainly need resources and allies. As you develop your strategy for inventing the future you want, how would you gain the support and active assistance of your company and partners?
How would you share your vision of the future with your customers? How might your customer set be different from those you have currently as a result of that vision?