1 / 14

FlySafe models

Introduction to FlySafe Objectives, Activities and System of Systems

Willem Bouten & FlySafe Team

Where and when do birds fly?

Temporal variation

Autumn Migration Intensity measured in Wier (Nl)

August | September | October | November

Air Forces Requirements

1. Short coming of the present systemDifficult interpretationNot automaticPoor altitude informationCourse spatial resolution

2. Need for more and other sensorsIncreasing spatial coveragePhasing out of current MPRs

3. Need for NowcastFill gaps in radar data (maintenance, clutter)

4. Need for Forecasts (hours to days)

FlySafe Proof of Concept

Objectives and limitations:- Proof of Concept (prototype)

> not intended as the final system> not intended to fulfill all requirements within PoC

- Main focus on Benelux (very limited spatial extent)- SoS focus on migration, not so much on air fields- Some elements of SoS need more time for further improvements

- Information not for pilots but for Bird Control Unit

Bird Migration SoS

Data Warehouse

Various Users

Model Developers& Service Providers

Sensors

Bird Migration SoS

FlySafe SensorsLong Range Military radars

150 km radius, migration

Weather radars

25 km radius, altitude distribution migration

Short Range Bird Radars

5 km, local bird behaviour

Individual tracked birdsGPS-tracking, species specific behavior

Earth observation data

Meteorological data

Iwan Holleman

Why do we need sensors?

+ Real-time information of spatial distribution of migration activity+ Anomalies and rare events, not captured in models+ For model development and model calibration

But: - Information is too late - Extrapolation in time and space needed

FlySafe Modelsdata driven ↔ concept driven

+ Large data sets (radar)+ Analyses general trends+ Data set specific+ Limited extrapolation

= Local forecast model= Altitude distribution model

+ Migration theory+ Species (group) specific+ Characteristic scale+ Limited accuracy

= Spatially explicit migration model

Judy Shamoun-Baranes

Why do we need models?

+ The only possibility for forecast (a few days ahead)+ Identification of measurement errors+ Interpretation of measurements in broader context+ Fill the gaps between sensors (in time and space)+ Extrapolation to other areas beyond sensors

Processing centerCoen Schrijvers

Processing centerCoen Schrijvers

Role of Space

Satcom for Sensors Remote Locations

Birds with Backpack GPS-ARGOS

Weather &Land Cover

EUMETSAT

LandSAT (MSS,TM)

400 BC

1100

1600

Aristotle: phenomena

Future2010

1990

1980

1950

1900

1800

1700

Boyle: gas law

Beaufort: wind

Fitzroy: air pressure

Philips: numerical model

Weather satellite

Model improvement and

data-assimilation

Weather forecast

Future perspective

400 BC

1100

1600

Aristotle: phenomenaAristotle: phenomena

Future2010

1990

1980

1950

1900

1800

1700

Boyle: gas law

Beaufort: wind

Fitzroy: air pressure

Philips: numerical model

Weather satellite

Naumann: activity caged birds

Frederick II

Observations migration

IOC: Bird ringing

David: Radar ornithology

Cochran: (satellite) telemetry

Model improvement and

data-assimilation

Model development

Observation network Model improvement

Weather forecast Bird Migration Forecast

Future perspective