Presentation from the Final FLYSAFE Forum in Europe

8/9/2019 Presentation from the Final FLYSAFE Forum in Europe

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FLYSAFE ConsortiumLeibniz Universitt Hannover

Final Forum25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Airborne Integrated Systems for Safety Improvement,

Flight Hazard Protection and All Weather Operations

Page 1

Why FLYSAFE?Aviation accidents, efficiency and the

role of atmospheric hazards

Leibniz Universitt Hannover

FLYSAFE Final Forum, NLR, Amsterdam, 25 March 2009


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Final Forum25 March 2009, NLR, Amsterdam


Page 2FLY_210UNI_Final_Forum_A03.ppt

Motivation

Worldwide number of commercial jet aircraft accidents

More than 5000 fatalities (1998-2007)


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Motivation

Accident rate is low

Significant decrease of accident rate over the last 20 years

Much has already been achieved!

Unchanged/slow decrease since about 1998


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Motivation

Volume of air traffic still increasing

Doubling expected until 2020


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Motivation

Risk of unacceptable increaseof absolute number of accidents!Risk of unacceptable increase

of absolute number of accidents!

FLYSAFE(NG-ISS, WIMS)

FLYSAFE

(NG-ISS, WIMS)Development of new integrated systems.

Reduce accident rate.

Prevent increase of absolute number of accidents!

Increasing air traffic volume expected.

Low, near constant accident rate


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Causes of aviation accidents

Possible FLYSAFE benefits


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Weather impact: 43.8% non-fatal, 13.3% fatal accidents (heavy a/c > 27 t)

Strong mass group and flight phase dependence of weather related

accidents

Large a/c: Most accidents during en route (>55%)

Small a/c: Most accidents during approach and landing (~27% each)

Weather related accidents


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Weather related accidents

Flight phase dependency of weather related accidents (a/c > 27 t)

27 001 to 272 000 Kg

LVIS

1%

ICE

1%

PREC

2%

HAIL

5%

LST

1%

TSP

6%

WAKEV

1%

TURB

83%

Turbulence

En Route27 001 to 272 000 Kg

LVIS

16%

AQUA/ICY

31%

PREC

23%

LST

1%

TSP1%

WAKEV

1%

WIND

27%

Landing

Slipperyrunway

Wind

Low vis

Turbulence


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Weather impacts safety and efficiency of air traffic

Cb as a threat => aircraft changing their route => delay is produced

Relation between safety and efficiency!

The WIMS also generate efficiency benefits and help to reduce delays!

Detailed studies on the role of weather in air traffic delays:

Determine the general role of weather in air traffic delays

Quantify the weather impact on delays using new methods

Investigate what knowledge about actual and future weather is requiredwhere and over which time scales and with which accuracy to reduceweather-related delays

The role of weather in

air traffic delays


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air traffic delays

Wake vortices

Sandstorms

Volcanic ash

Snow and ice

Turbulence

Thunderstorms

Wind

In-flight icing

Visibility

weakweakmoderatemoderatestrongstrongweakweakmoderatemoderatestrongstrong

SAFETYEFFICIENCYWEATHERPHENOMENA


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air traffic delays

Literature survey of the weather impact on efficiency

Weather: 65% of all delays

Most studies/reports based on the analysis of delay codes

not always unambiguous

Successful quantification/forecast of the weather related delays using amultivariate linear regression model

Valuable input from WIMS possible

Actual and modelled punctuality

Deviation

Modelled versus actual punctuality, R2 = 0.7


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air traffic delays

Literature survey of the weather impact on efficiency

Weather: 65% of all delays

Most studies/reports based on the analysis of delay codes

not always unambiguous

Successful quantification/forecast of the weather related delays using amultivariate linear regression model

Valuable input from WIMS possible

Actual and modelled punctuality

Deviation


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air traffic delays

Questionnaire to ATM, ATC and airport operators

Weather situations with strongest impact:

Possible FLYSAFE benefits


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air traffic delays

Questionnaire to ATM, ATC and airport operators (contd)

Radar images including Cb + lightning information

Short term weather info updates

Better access to wind charts (at different flight levels)

Continuous information on

Turbulence conditions

Icing at different flight levels

CAT and wind shear

The WIMS exactly meet the requirements named


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Weather impact on aviation

Summary Weather contributes to one third of nonfatal accidents

Weather contributes to every sixth fatal accident

Turbulence prime cause for most weather related nonfatal injuries

Low visibility prime cause for most weather related fatal injuries

Weather impacts efficiency and can cause delays

Weather impact can be modeled

FLYSAFE products (NG-ISS / WIMS) reduce negative impacts!

Documents

Presentation from the Final FLYSAFE Forum in Europe