Interpretation of transport indicators

Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata

Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica

Out

line

1. Global trends2. Consumption by mode3. Road consumption by type of vehicle

3

Objectives:o To analyze consumption trends compared economic growth,

and identify homogeneous periodso To point out the importance of the different modeso To analyze road transport energy consumption in relation

with the increase in the stock of cars or road vehicleso Content

o Transport energy consumption, GDP and transport intensity (index, 2000= 100)

o Consumption by mode (2 chart pies 2000 et 2010) o Road energy consumption, GDP and stock of cars (index,

2000= 100))

Global trends: objectives and content

Global trends in transport sector

4Medener

Identification of homogeneous periods : 2 periods 2000-2008 and 2008-2010Transport intensity defined in relation to the GDP as all sectors contribute to transport consumption

Energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and transport intensity: Chile

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Indi

ce 2

000=

100

Consumo Energía Transporte GDP Intensidad Consumo

Transport energy consumption drivers and intensity

5Medener

Since 2008 transport energy consumption is decreasing although GDP is growing; this contrasts with the previous period

The ratio transport energy consumption per unit of GDP is decreasing especially since 2008

2000-2008 2008-2011 1990-2011-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

Energy consumption GDP Transport intensity

Trends in energy consumption, GDP and transport intensity (Chile)

76%

9%

15%

0%

2000

80%

9%

11%

0%2010

Caminero

Aéreo

Marítimo

Ferroviario

Transport consumption by mode : case of Chile

Distribution of transport consumption by mode (Chile)

Road is dominant with 80% of total transport energy consumption in 2010 Increasing share of road transport Significant share for maritime transport but decreasing

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Indi

ce 2

000=

100

Consumo Energía Caminero GDP Stock de vehículos

Road transport global trends: case of Chile

Road energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and stock of cars: Chile

Identification of homogeneous periods : 2 periods 2000-2004 and 2004-2011 to be used for the rest of the presentation

8Medener

Road energy consumption trends in transport, GDP and stock of cars: Chile

2000-2004 2004-2011 2000-2011

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

Consommation du transport routier PIB Parc automobile

Since 2006, the stock of cars is growing faster than the GDP,The consumption of road transport is increasing twice slower than the stock of cars.

Out

line

1. Global trends2. Consumption by mode3. Road consumption by type of vehicle

10

Objectives:o To analyze energy efficiency trends by mode (road, air)o To analyze the impact of the change in the composition of

the road vehicles fleet on the average specific consumption of road transport

o Content:a. Specific consumption of road transport (per vehicle and per

car equivalent) : in aggregation and by type of fuel b. Specific consumption of air and rail transport (histograms

2000 and 2010)c. Specific consumption of road transport per vehicle

Consumption by mode: objectives and content

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Toe/

vehí

culo

Vehículos a gasolina Vehículos a diesel Promedio

Trends in specific consumption of road transport : Chile

Consumption of road transport per vehicleSlight decrease in average specific consumption of road transport per vehicleStrong decrease for diesel vehicles, partly linked to the dieselisation of light vehicles and cars (increase share of diesel cars from 1% in 2000 to 11 in 2011)

12

Consumption of road transport per vehicle and per car equivalent to assess overall energy efficiency of road transport

For countries that do not have data breaking down the consumption of road transport by type of vehicle, the consumption of road transport per vehicle is not a good indicator of energy efficiency as it may be influenced by a shift in te composition of the vehicle stock;

For instance, if the share of light vehicles (e.g. motorcycles for gasoline or cars for diesel increases this will decrease the average consumption per vehicle all things being equal... and this is not linked to energy efficiency improvements.

To clean the consumption of road transport per vehicle from this structural effect, calculation of a unit consumption of road transport per equivalent car , the variation of which will be independent on the change in the composition of the stock of vehicles.

13

Calculation of the average consumption of road transport per car equivalent For countries that do not have data breaking down the consumption of road

transport by type of vehicle, calculation of a unit consumption of road transport per equivalent car

This indicator relates the total consumption of road transport to a fictitious stock of vehicles, measured in terms of numbers of equivalent cars.

Converting the actual stock of vehicles into a stock of equivalent cars is based on a coefficient reflecting the difference in the average yearly consumption between each type of vehicle and a car:o If, for instance, a motorcycle consumes 0.2 toe/year on average and a

car 1 toe/year, one motorcycle is considered to be equivalent to 0.2 cars.o In the same way if light vehicles and trucks consume on average 5 toe/

year each vehicle for road transport of goods is equivalent to 5 cars

Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock: Bolivia

14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201050

60

70

80

90

100

110

consumption per vehicle Consumption per car equivalent

In Bolivia, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing more rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-6.4%/year compared to -4.4%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 2%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport, which can be estimated at 4.4%/year

energy efficiency indicator

Effect of change in the composition of the vehicle stock

Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock : Chile

15

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201070

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

consumption per vehicleConsumption per car equivalent

In Chile, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing slightly less rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-2%/year compared to -2.3%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 0.3%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport , which can be estimated at 2%/year

Unit consumption per vehicle: effect of changes in the composition of the vehicle stock : Costa Rica

16

19901992

19941996

19982000

20022004

20062008

201060

70

80

90

100

110

120

consumption per vehicleConsumption per car equivalent

In Costa Rica, the consumption of road transport per car equivalent is decreasing less rapidly than the consumption of road transport per vehicle (-0.5%/year compared to -1.9%/year) ; this is due to a greater share of light vehicles in the stock that contributed to reduce the consumption per vehicle by 1.4%/year ; the consumption per car equivalent gives a better proxy of energy efficiency in road transport , which can be estimated at 0.5%/year

Air transport

0

50

100

150

200

250

-

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Consumo Específico (Toe/Pax) Indice Pasajeros (2000=100)

Specific consumption of air transport and passenger traffic (Chile)

The specific energy consumption of air transport remained on average rather steady until 2008 and decreased rapidly since then;

Trend in this specific consumption is usually negatively correlated with the traffic (i.e. rapid decrease with a rapid growth in traffic and vice versa)

Out

line

1. Global trends2. Consumption by mode3. Road consumption by type of vehicle4. Indicators of modal shift

19

Objectives:o To show the weight of different type of vehicles in road

consumptiono To analyze specific energy consumption trends for cars and

truckso Contents:

o Specific consumption of cars:o liter/100 km for new carso liter/100 km for cars (average stock of cars)

o Specific consumption of trucks

Consumption of road transport by type of vehicle: objectives and content

Distribution of road transport energy consumption by type of vehicle

39%

20%

25%

15%1%

2010

cars

light & duty

trucks

Buses

two wheels

Distribution of road transport energy consumption by type of vehicle (country x)

21

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20095.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

average new

l/100

km

Specific consumption of cars (EU average)

Specific consumption of new cars: Chile

Source: CV (Centro de Control y Certificación Vehicular), de acuerdo al protocolo internacionalmente aceptado ICCT (International Council on Clean Transportation).

Out

line

1. Global trends2. Consumption by mode3. Road consumption by type of vehicle4. Indicators of modal shift

Decreasing share of non-road goods traffic in almost all the countries

Increasing share of rail and water for 8 countries since 2000 (Sweden, UK, Finland, Denmark, Norway, Spain, Portugal and Greece)

24

Italy

Fran

ce

Pola

nd EU

Ger

man

y

Net

herla

nds

UK

Spai

n

Mex

ico

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2000 2010

Share of rail and water in total goods traffic