Interpretation of indicators in industry

Interpretation of indicators in industry

Bruno Lapillonne, Vice President, Enerdata

Reunión Técnica de Trabajo del Proyecto BIEE24 – 26 de febrero, 2014, San José, Costa Rica

Out

line

1. Overall trends2. Analysis by branch3. Effect of structural changes

Contents

1. Overall trendsa. Energy consumption, value added and production index , (2000-2010)

selection of period of analysisb. Energy intensity of industry and manufacturing (annual variation by period)

c. Breakdown of consumption by industrial branch (2000 - 2010) (for the 5 main branches)

Trends in energy consumption and value added in industry: case of Chile

Trends in energy consumption and value added (2000=100)

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Indi

ce 2

000=

100

Consumo Energía Industria Valor agregado Industria Valor Agregado Manufactura

Source: BIEE, Ministerio de Energía de Chile

industry= manufacturing + mining + construction

Trends in energy intensity of industry: identification of homogeneous periods for analysis: case of Chile

Energy intensities of industry, manufacturing and mining

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

koe/

k$20

03

Intensidad Industria Intensidad Manufactura Intensidad Minería


-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

2000-2005 2005-2010 2000-2011

Intensidad Industria Intensidad Manufactura Intensidad Minería

Trends in energy intensity of industry: analysis by period : case of Chile

Annual variation in energy intensities of industry, manufacturing and mining (%/year)


1990-1999 1999-2001 2001-2007 2007-2009 2009-2012 1990-2012

-2.0%

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

1.6%

-0.8%

1.2%

-1.7%

1.4%0.9%

1990-1999: inflation control and economic development in Brazil 1999-2001: significant decrease (electricity crisis and rationing) 2001-2007: recovery period and new projects in industry 2007-2009: impacts of the global economic crisis) 2009-2012: large projects for steel, bauxite, alumina and pulp production

Source: EPE

Choice of period for analysis: case of Brazil

Trends in energy intensity of manufacturing industry: analysis by period : case of Brazil


8

28%

1%12%

9%6%6%

30%

9%

2012Food

Textile

Paper

Chemicals

Cement

Ceramics

Primary metals includ-ing iron-alloys

Other manufacturing

21%2%

11%11%

6%5%

35%

9%

2000

Energy consumption of manufacturing by sub-sector in Brazil

Increasing relative share of food industry: sugar, processed and frozen products; Decreasing share of primary metals and chemicals (less investments and more imports)

Source: BIEE EPE

Breakdown of the energy consumption by industrial branch: case of Brazil

Out

line

1. Main trends2. Analysis by branch3. Effect of structural changes

10

Objective:o Show trends in energy efficiency by focusing on main

energy intensive products (cement, steel, paper, copper,etc..)

o Show trends in energy intensities by sub-sector (textiles, chemicals, food,etc..).

Contento Specific consumption of energy-intensive products

(cement, steel, paper) o Energy intensity by branch (2000 and 2010);

Content

Specific energy consumption of energy intensive products: case of Chile

0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Toe/

ton

Intensidad Papel y celulosa Intensidad Acero Intensidad Cemento Intensidad Cobre


Specific energy consumption (toe/ton)

Copper is very intensive in Chile and its specific energy consumption is increasing due to less concentrated oresUsing a double scale or showing each product separately enables to better see the trends by product

Steel0.000

0.100

0.200

0.300

0.400

0.500

0.600

0.700

1990 2000 2010 2012

toe/

tonn

eSpecific energy consumption of steel in Brazil

Decreasing specific energy consumption of steel

12

Source: EPESource: BIEE/EPE

13

Decreasing specific energy consumption of cement until 2010

Cement 0.0000.0100.0200.0300.0400.0500.0600.0700.0800.0900.100

1990 2000 2010 2012

toe/

tonn

e

Source: BIEE/EPE

Specific energy consumption of cement in Brazil

14Medener

Food Textile Wood PaperChemicals

Non metallic mineralsMachinery

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07

2000 2010

Energy intensity by branch (unit koe per € 2000) (Uruguay)

Increases in the energy intensity of all branches in Uruguay

Source: BIEE, MIEM/ DNE

Trends in the energy intensity by industrial branch : case of Uruguay

Out

line

1. Main trends2. Analysis by branch3. Effect of structural changes

16

Objectives: Analyze the effect of changes in industrial specialization on

the energy intensity (role of structural effects), first at the manufacturing level and for industry as whole

Content:o Change in industrial structure: breakdown of value

added by branch (2000 and 2010);o Relative levels of energy intensity of the brancheso Intensity at constant structure

Content

Structural changes in manufacturing industry: case of Chile

Value added structure by industrial branch in Chile

29%

6%

7%

10%

27%

8%

13%

2000

32%

4%

6%

12%

25%

8%

13%

2011Alimentos, bebidas y

tabaco

Textil, prendas de vestir y cuero

Maderas y muebles

Papel e imprentas

Química, petróleo, caucho y plástico

Minerales no metálicos y metálica básica

Productos metálicos, maquinaria y equipos y otros


18Medener

Paper

Non metallic minerals WoodChemicals Food Textile

Machinery02468

101214161820

2010

Energy intensity by branch (relative value: machinery=1) (Uruguay)

Paper and non metallic minerals are 15 to 20 times more energy intensive than machinery in UruguayFood, textile and chemicals very similar ~ 4 times more energy intensive than machinery

Relative levels of energy intensity by branch

Calculation of an intensity at constant structure to measure the impact of structural changes in industry or manufacturing

19

To quantify the impact of structural changes on the energy intensity of manufacturing industry, the usual approach is to calculate a fictive energy intensity at constant structure, i.e. assuming that the structure did not change compared to a base year (e.g. 2000).

This intensity at constant structure is calculated at year t with the sectoral intensities of year t and the value added structure of manufacturing (i.e. the share of each sub-sector i in the total value added of manufacturing of the base year 0):

IEs = (VAi/VA)o * (Ei/VAi)t with : IEs : intensity at constant structure VAi: value added of sub-sector i; VA: total value added of manufacturing; Ei: energy consumption of sub-sector i; o :base year (e.g. 2000) and t: current year

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

20110.0040

0.0060

0.0080

0.0100

0.0120

0.0140

0.0160

0.0180

ManufacturingManufacturing at constant structure

Energy intensity of manufacturing: observed and at constant structure in Uruguay

Until 2007, effects of structural changes in manufacturing is negligible; after2007, strong impact

Source: MIEM/DNE

Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Uruguay

effects of structural changes

1997-2007 2007-2011-4.0%

0.0%

4.0%

8.0%

12.0%

16.0%

ManufacturingManufacturing at constant structureEffect of structural changes

Energy intensity of manufacturing

Until 2007, effects of structural changes in manufacturing is negligible; after2007, around 40% of the increase is due to structural changes (ie 6/16%)

Source: MIEM/DNE

Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Uruguay : summary by period

40%

2000 20120%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

27% 32%

33% 29%

13% 14%8% 12%

9% 6%

Food products, beverages and tobacco Chemicals, Chemical products and man-made fibres Non-metallic mineral products Basic metals (steel+non ferrous) + ferroalloys Textile and textile products Pulp, Paper and Paper products; publishing and printing

Share of industry value added by branch

Source: EPE

Change in industry value added structure : structural changes : case of Brazil Decreasing share of chemicals and paper but increasing share of food and to a lesser extent of non metallic minerals and basis metals

Food Textile PaperChemicals

Non metallic mineralsPrimary metals

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.61.8

2

2000 2010

ktoe

/€$

[200

0]

Energy intensity by branch

The branch “primary metals” has the highest energy intensity; it is 13 times more intensive

than textiles , followed by paper and pulp ( factor 9 compared to textiles), food and non

metallic minerals (factor 4)

Source: EPE

Energy intensity by industrial branch : case of Brazil

24

-0.40%0.00%0.40%0.80%

2000-2010

2000-2010

Structural changes towards less intensive branches contributed to limit around 50% of the intensity increase

Impact of structural changes on manufacturing energy intensity: case of Brazil

Documents

Interpretation of indicators in industry