International Trade Statistics New developments Ronald Jansen Chief of the Trade Statistics Branch United Nations Statistics Division / DESA E-mail: [email protected]@un.org

International Trade StatisticsNew developments

Ronald JansenChief of the Trade Statistics BranchUnited Nations Statistics Division / DESAE-mail: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

International standards

2008 SNA 2008 IRIS Balance of Payments Manual, 6th Edition

Current Account Goods – Residency and Change of Ownership Services – Residency

Classifications ISIC, Rev.4 CPC 2.0

International standards - Trade International Merchandise Trade Statistics, Concepts and

Definitions 2010 (IMTS 2010) Movement of Goods across Borders Main data source – Customs declarations

Manual on Statistics of International Trade in Services, 2010 (MSITS2010) BOP services components FATS Modes of Supply

Balance of Payments Manual, 6th Edition Current Account

Goods – Residency and Change of Ownership Services – Residency

Classifications HS-2012 CPC 2.0 EBOPS

Compilation Guidance - Trade International Merchandise Trade Statistics, Compilers Manual

Expert Group on IMTS Customs and Non-customs data sources Country practices

Compilers Guide for MSITS2010 Expert Group on Compilation of SITS Time schedule – June 1013

BPM6 Compilation Guide BOPCOM committee First drafts have appeared on IMF website

Classifications Revision of BEC New classification for Business Functions (Outsourcing)

Revised recommendations - Trade IMTS 2010 – new data elements

Imports FOB added – useful for reconciliation exercises

Partner country of consignment – useful for reconciliation studies

Mode of Transport Customs procedure

Direct imports / exports Inward / Outward processing Global Free zone trade Production

Data Dissemination - Trade UN Comtrade – Upgrade

New data elements added Anticipation of further dimensions - industry Addition of Monthly data

Publications More analytical Integrating Trade in Goods and Services Monthly trends

Revised recommendations - Trade MSITS 2010 – changes

Revised EBOPS classification Requesting partner breakdown by service

category Requesting partner breakdown by FDI Requesting partner breakdown by FATS Measuring Modes of Supply

Mode 4

Data Dissemination - Trade UN ServiceTrade – Upgrade

Collection of more detailed data Further improved Data processing More metadata

Publications Integrating Trade in Goods and Services

New developments Fragmentation of production process Trade data do no longer reflect value-

added of exporting country What does did mean for Trade

imbalances? “Made in the World initiative” - WTO

Rise of Global Value Chains and Trade in Value Added

Bo MENG (IDE-JETRO)

Regional Seminar on International Trade Statistics (UNSD & NBS)

24-26 Oct. 2011 Beijing.

（ C 　） IDE-JETRO All rights reserved. 10

Simple concept of GVCsPlanning of product

R&D/Design/Testing production

Procurement of parts & components

Assembly

Final products

Marketing/sale/export

Customer service/user support


Simple concept of GVCsPlanning of product

R&D/Design/Testing production

Procurement of parts & components

Assembly

Final products

Marketing/sale/export

Customer service/user support


Fragmentation production


Made in USA ↓

Made in the World

Contribution of trade in intermediate goods

Contribution rateBefore 2002 vs after 2002

Intermediate goods:

38 ％→ 54%Household consumption:

34 ％→ 19%Capital goods:

16%→20% 　　


0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Unit: Billion US $

Total trade in goods

Intermediate goods

Household consumption

Capital investment

Source: calculated by Bo MENG and Norihiko YAMANO, 2011 (using OECD data, preliminary)

Main data sources used in measuring GVCs

• Firm based data （ Apple, Toyota ）Micro level, but lack of global viewpoint

• Bilateral trade data （ import and export ）Global, but no inter-industry information

• National input-output dataInter-industry, but lack of global aspect

• International input-output dataInter-country, inter-industry, but time lag (almost 5 years)


Vertical specialisationVertical specialisation

VS share = induced intermediate imports / total exports(=Hummels, et al. (2001) ‘s “Import contents of export”)

Country 1

Country 2

Country 3

Domestic intermediate

goods

Domestic sales

Capitalservices

Intermediate and final

goods

Exports of intermediate

goods

Exports of final goods

Domestic capital and

labour

Intermediate goods


Source: WTO-IDE-JETRO (2011)


Global Forum on Trade StatisticsMeasuring Global Trade - Do we have the right numbers?

organized jointly by UNSD and Eurostat in collaboration with WTO and UNCTAD

2-4 February 2011, Geneva, Switzerland

19

1. Measuring Global Trade2. New Recommendations

IMTS / SITS3. Data Sources4. Global Production and

Outsourcing5. Linking Trade and Business

Statistics6. Trade in Value-Added

Core business function:Production of final goods or services intended for the market/for third parties carried out by the enterprise and yielding income.

Support business function:Support business functions (ancillary activities) are carried out in order to permit or facilitate production of goods or services intended for the market/for third parties by the enterprise.

Distribution and logisticsMarketing, sales and after sales services ICT services Administrative and management functions Engineering and related technical servicesResearch & DevelopmentOther support functions

Global Production Statistics Denmark

International Sourcing study

ItalyNetherlandsNew Zealand

21

Linking Trade and Business Statistics

Istat

20%*

The link between the list of trade operators and the Business Register is the GATEWAY to any new and successful

developments in trade statistics

List of Trade operators

Trade flows micro-data

Business Register

Business surveys

Administrative and fiscal data

Special surveys on Globalisation: MNEs and international sourcing

“new figures” on the business characteristics of exporting and importing enterprises

“new figures” and analysis based on the full integration between Trade and Business Statistics

SECOND TYPE OF OUTPUT THIRD TYPE OF OUTPUT

“new figures” based on the count of trade operators, for instance by products and markets

FIRST TYPE OF OUTPUT

Integrating economical, functional and social statistics

Enterprise Firm Job Person

Statistics of Finances of Enterprises

International Trade Fiscal Data

Population register

Job register

Surveys Persons and HouseholdsStructural Business

Surveys and short term indicators

R&D

Investments

Business Register

Fiscal Data

1 : M 1 : N 1 : P

ConGO

Ownership (UCI)

What’s in the LBD?

24

Longitudinal Business Frame

Contains longitudinally linked data for most enterprises operating in NZ. Includes information on:

• employment

• location

• industry

• ownership relationship

Allows individual business to be tracked over time.

Administrative data

• Annual Enterprise Survey

• Business Operations Survey

• Manufacturing and Energy Use Survey

• Business Finance Survey

• Research and Development Survey

• International Trade in Services and Royalties

Survey data

• Goods and services tax data

• Financial accounts (IR10)

• Company tax returns (IR4)

• Linked Employer Employee Database

• Overseas merchandise trade

• Government assistance data

Longitudinal Business Database

USITCWTOOECD

25

Trade in Value-added

Global Forum Website

27

Regional Seminar on International Trade StatisticsBeijing, China, October 2011

29

Thank you

Ronald Jansen Trade Statistics BranchUnited Nations Statistics DivisionEmail: [email protected] Website: unstats.un.org/unsd/trade

Documents

International Trade Statistics New developments Ronald Jansen Chief of the Trade Statistics Branch United Nations Statistics Division / DESA E-mail: [email protected]@un.org